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Humans Will Need Two Earths By 2030

An anonymous reader writes "A recent report warns that humans are overusing the resources of the planet and will need two Earths by the year 2030. The Living Planet Report tells that the demands on natural resources have doubled in the past 50 years and are now outstripping what the Earth can provide by more than half."

36 of 738 comments (clear)

  1. Bull by Anrego · · Score: 4, Insightful

    .. and we've run out of ipv4 addresses "in about a year" for the last decade or so..

    and people will probably pay about as much heed to this warning as they do to ipv4 exhaustion.

    AND just like ipv4 exhaustion, nothing serious is going to be done about this until stuff actually starts falling apart. And by falling apart I don't mean charts and graphs, I mean "The Day After Tomorrow" falling apart. And even then...

    1. Re:Bull by ect5150 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Amen... same thing about other resources. You can find clips of former President Carter claiming oil and natural gas would be gone "in the next decade" while giving speeches in the White House.

      --
      I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.
    2. Re:Bull by SerpentMage · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I rather doubt we will have a "day after tomorrow", things don't happen like that. Instead I see a mechanization of our nature. For example, imagine a sort of nature where things are completely recycled? Sound far fetched? Consider how Switzerland is essentially self-sufficient in copper. Does Switzerland have copper mines? Nope not even close. Copper can be easily recycled and hence Switzerland recycles their own copper. This goes towards rare earths, etc, etc.

      While many people believe that we waste, waste, waste, there are many pockets of the world that are now becoming adapt at living with little. Classic example is Israel. Israel can grow crops with water amounts that makes everybody else blush with embarrassment. That is the future...

      --

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    3. Re:Bull by MoonBuggy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Precisely. These kind of projections invariably fail to take into account even the most basic ideas about supply and demand. As we begin to run lower on a given resource it becomes increasingly more viable to recycle it or look for alternatives. In most cases this happens without even especially inconveniencing people - everyone might grumble about fuel prices, but then they just drive a little less, the market for more efficient cars grows, and not that much changes in our day to day lives.

    4. Re:Bull by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      With the Earth, don't expect any such workaround.

      Yes we can, and are actively working towards them even as I type this.

      The workarounds include higher efficiency devices (e.g. iPad/Mac Mini/laptop instead of a massive gaming desktop), lowered consumption (when gasoline hits $5/gal in the US, odds are excellent that we'll all be driving less), and a different way of providing the goods (locally-sourced and produced foods instead of container-ship shipped, etc).

      Long-term, this also includes starting colonies off-Earth, or at least having commercial space mining and production (which in turn expands the resource pool for a lot of things, from energy to minerals, to living space when we start looking centuries ahead). We're doing space tourism now (well, not-quite-LEO), and with commercial space industry warming up, it is not impossible (or even improbable) to consider viable commercial space entities making regular trips up and back by 2030. Consider that the first airplane flight happened in 1903, and we had commercial passenger flight by 1930.

      This has nothing to do with "left" or "right", and using such designations will only muddy the water (and degenerate the debate). Please refrain from doing so.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    5. Re:Bull by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA, at projected increased rates of consumption. Since we passed peak oil in the continental USA in the 70s, this was not inaccurate. I don't think it ever occurred to him that we were collectively such self-absorbed greedy obtuse little wussies that we would let ourselves become dependent on the Arabs, Russians and Mexicans for the life blood of our economic viability and strategic safety (i.e. Oil).

      Surprise!

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    6. Re:Bull by Bender0x7D1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      If that statement were true, we'd be starving (needing 1.5 earths to survive). Clearly the fellow has no idea what he's talking about.

      What he means is that we need 1.5 Earths to survive in the long-term.

      Think of the Earth like a retirement fund. You can take out more than the interest earned each year, but that means at some point in the future the account will be at zero. In this case, we are doing things like cutting down old-growth forests to make more farmland, overfishing, and doing other things that the Earth cannot replenish or repair on a human time scale. Unfortunately, when the Earth account balance hits zero, losing our home has a much broader meaning than having to move into a nursing home.

      --
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    7. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

      To most people, "peak oil" is the point at which production is at a peak. After this point, a country (or the world) is _producing_ less then they used to. Unless the oil shales have reversed the trend in the US, it does seem like that point has been reached.

      A relevant graph from wikipedia

    8. Re:Bull by nedlohs · · Score: 4, Informative

      He's using the standard definition of "peak oil", you know when production rate hits its maximum. Which has exactly nothing to do with how much is in the ground - it's how much is being extracted.

      So here's the chart: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=A

      It's seems pretty obvious that peak oil for the US was in 1970. Sure we may ramp up production in the future in which case that'll just be a local maxima and not the actual peak. But it has been 40 years so far...

    9. Re:Bull by gilleain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Hmmm. I'm a little confused by your assumption that everyone has their own personal definition of what "peak oil" means. I'm fairly certain that there is only one accepted meaning for the term, however useful or useless. I mean, I'm all for refining the usage of words and technical terminology - but not to the point of having individual relationships with words.

      I don't find myself discussing peak oil very often, but if I wanted a term that meant "the point at which production starts to decline" then I think it would come in pretty useful....

    10. Re:Bull by Goody · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Bad analogy. "Peak nuclear" is merely due to a lack of construction of nuclear power plants, not lack a lack of nuclear fuel. Peak oil is due a dwindling amount of oil that can be economically extracted.

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    11. Re:Bull by NFN_NLN · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What Carter was discussing was resources in the USA

      [citation needed]

      Those talks on peak oil production for 1970 were based on M. King Hubbert's theory for the US lower 48 states. With respect to the lower 48 states, he was accurate: http://dieoff.org/page1916.gif

      Funny, I could have sworn that the US still has the worlds largest supply of oil shale. Plus oil sand. Plus coal. Plus plenty of offshore oil, and oil in Alaska. I guess "peak oil" to you just means "we have less than we used to"?

      With the US as a net importer and a dwindling supply of domestic oil I'm not sure where you're going with this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

      The United States #1 source of oil is Canada. That oil comes from traditional wells that are drying up and more recently oil sands that are expanding production. However, the oil sands are far from a recent discovery. They have been well known since oil became a commodity but were left untouched because it is incredibly expensive to recover.

      That fact that companies are paying big bucks to develop oil repositories that are expensive only proves that they're running out of traditional oil... and they're heading into the tail end of the curve.

      - If you need to burn half the equivalent energy in natural gas to extract the oil from the sand as you recover in oil energy...
        OR
      - If you need to drill offshore in water so deep it becomes a risk... ...then something is wrong.

    12. Re:Bull by Alef · · Score: 4, Interesting

      While technology might very well "save us" once again, it's a bit audacious to assume that it always will in the future. Civilizations have fallen before, and all of them could probably have argued in a similar way before the end: It has worked fine up until now, so why shouldn't it continue to?

      I actually think energy is one of the easier problems to solve -- solar cells will drop in price as demand increases and technology advances, and the sun provides orders of magnitude more power than we have use for at the moment. But if you look at almost any other natural resource, demands are increasing at an exponential rate. Since resources are limited, it is impossible for this to continue for very long. I have no doubt that society will adapt, the question is how disruptive the changes will be. At the moment, it appears that some prominent economies think that even reducing oil consumption is out of the question due to the economical effects it would have.

    13. Re:Bull by Mr+Z · · Score: 4, Informative

      The main problem is with what economists call externalities. Waste byproducts, pollution, resource depletion, etc. are all negative externalities that aren't immediately reflected in the cost of a good or service. Policy decisions, though, such as pollution regulation, manufacturer takeback requirements, and so on can internalize those costs in the final selling price of a good or service.

      This is where regulation meets the marketplace, and how proper regulations and policies can work together with market forces to drive sustainability. But, it does require forces outside the market (such as government regulation) to internalize those costs so that they get accounted for up front.

      For example, I actually would be in favor of increased fuel taxes, with the money allocated directly to greenhouse gas abatement programs, whether it's planting tree farms or sequestering carbon by some other means, or converting power plants away from coal.

    14. Re:Bull by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The US did not reach "peak nuclear" because there's no technical reason preventing increased nuclear output from the US. There's a lot of "cut off one's face" greens who've succeeded in bringing about even more coal burning, but that's not here or there. Nor did we encounter Peak Buggy Whip, the demand simply fell away. We could begin ramping nuclear up any time we wanted, but we'll never produce as much oil as we used to (let alone enough to meet our increased consumption since then) however we try.

      And that is what Peak X specifically refers to: An inexorable decline in production & major increase in prices that results as initial easily accessible supplies are depleted.

    15. Re:Bull by c0lo · · Score: 4, Informative

      Right now, "Global Warming" is a 2 factor beast-- the consumption of energy resources produces a biproduct that is energy intensive to recycle by mother nature, which also has the added effect of reducing the rate at which the earth expels waste heat into space. This has the net effect of causing the earth to heat up.

      That's BS - the second "byproduct heat" is negligible. Computations on the back of a napkin:

      • the power the world currenlty consumes = 15 TW. Assuming a 20% efficiency in producing electicity results in 75 TW of heat being produced (15 TW goes in electricity which, consumed, generates all-heat, 60 TW is directly heat only and lost - assume all electricity via thermal).
      • the solar constant - I'll take the minimum of 1.321 kW/m. With an Earth radius of 6371 km, results a value for incoming EM radiation from Sun of 168449 TW.
      • Part of the 168449 is "captured" by the plants. The photosynthetic efficiency is somewhere around 11%. Assuming all the Earth surface is used by plants which perform photosynthesis at maximum efficiency, still results in an excess of 153288 TW which the Earth "dissipates" back in space.

      Result: the heat created by the humans is at most 0.04% of what the Earth dissipates into space naturally.

      --
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  2. just like "Day After Tomorrow? by gilleain · · Score: 4, Informative

    And by falling apart I don't mean charts and graphs, I mean "The Day After Tomorrow" falling apart.

    So, superstorms that freeze the Earth, and CGI wolves?

  3. Another low point by groomed · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What is the purpose of this post? What does it even mean? What is the purpose of posting a link to a nebulous summary of a highly suggestive report on an extremely politically charged subject on a site that bills itself "News for Nerds"?

    1. Re:Another low point by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sensationalism. Trolling. Flamebait.

      Welcome to the machine.

  4. Peak Oil not Oil Running Out by bananaendian · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Quick, someone say "we're using the resources at a larger rate than the earth can provide" ! before the cornucopians come out of their caves to declare infinite growth through infinite resources.

    The bottle maybe big but the spout is killing us.

    --
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  5. Misleading by ian(at)union.io · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This has F-U-D written all over it. Yes, we might need 2.75 Earths worth of *some* minerals or resources, such as tungsten or cork trees, in 20 years, but we certainly do not need 2.75 Earths worth of other, vaster resources, such as breathable air or silicon. To say that we'd need two Earths in order to quench our ravenous thirst for light bulb filaments is overkill, and certainly does more to make me discount these studies than think poorly of how humanity manages the resources we have.

    1. Re:Misleading by scorp1us · · Score: 5, Informative

      This was soured from a WWF report. The same WWF that has been making dire predictions form day 1, and even managed to get their non-peer-reviewed policy papers (it isn't even science) into the IPCC reports. Wherein, recently, the IPCC has has to issue retractions for it not being up to scientific scrutiny.

      In short, nothing to see here, move along. It's just WWF campaigning for more money.

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  6. It may happen one day... by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Informative

    But I still remember in the 70s how oil was going to run out by 1990; we seem to have had only twenty years' supply of oil left for as long as I remember. Similarly, half the world was going to have starved by 2000, but instead we've seen population continue to increase.

    The hair-shirt left have cried disaster so many times that it's impossible to take them seriously anymore.

    1. Re:It may happen one day... by Khazunga · · Score: 5, Informative

      You are probably referring to Hubbert's Peak. His prediction was for peak production in the US, and was mostly on target (which is admirable for a prediction 50 year ahead). The curve has been adapted to several regions, with correct predictions. The peak global production, using Hubbert's curve, is predicted for 2005, and it seems to have indeed ocurred.

      Mind you, peak production isn't the same as "running out". There's still a lot of oil out there. It's just that now it's clear we must find an alternative, and we have a couple of decades left.

      --
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  7. Why?! by nloop · · Score: 4, Funny

    Why, slashdot, do you insist on posting article after article wrote by Al Gore and the global conspirators of Climate Gate. Clearly if just drill in the Arctic it will solve ALL of our environmental woes.

  8. Consider the source by davev2.0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Somehow I doubt that the groups who created this report are impartial and it is well known that if one goes looking for a specific conclusion, one will find the conclusion whether the conclusion is correct or not.

  9. Re:And the religions of the world.... by mc6809e · · Score: 4, Insightful

    still refuse to discuss population control.

    And so do the non religious, unfortunately. Worse, they seem intent on subsidizing the fecundity of the stupid at the expense of the responsible.

  10. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Fnkmaster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You are painting with an excessively broad brush here.

    You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want pesticides all over your fruits and vegetables.

    You don't need mystical mumbo jumbo to not want your chicken and cows raised in factory farming conditions, fed hormones, antibiotics, and the cheapest foodstuff imaginable to fatten them up as quickly as possible.

    Why do you need mystical mumbo jumbo to be aware of the major nutritional differences between wild-caught fish and farmed fish, that are principally due to their different feeding habits.

    So yeah, some of the stuff labeled "organic" that's basically identical to conventional stuff may be a rip-off, but there is plenty for a purely scientific, rational-minded person to critique in our industrial food system and plenty of reasons to avoid certain food produced by them.

  11. Shameless self promotion by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The overpopulation myth. Bottom line - we could provide for every single person living on this planet with just the resources inside the US. Never mind the rest of the world. We're a LONG way from overpopulation... We have a distribution - not resource - problem to solve.

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  12. Re:Ridiculous by sqrt(2) · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Packing everyone into 8x10 cells, isn't an acceptable solution to me. Any solution that doesn't allow for wide open space of undeveloped land, wilderness, forests, jungles, deserts, is suboptimal. We could cram everyone into skyscrapers that cover the entire earth in one giant planet wide city, but what kind of life would that be? Quality of life and quality of our living space are important things to consider. Humans were not meant to be packed like sardines into crowded cities with no where to escape to. The health effects both known and unknown would be profound.

    --
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  13. Re:And the religions of the world.... by tverbeek · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In fact, "growth" has become something of a religion itself. In public discourse and political debate, no one ever talks about stability; the need to "grow the economy" is taken as a "given", a commandment from on high. If a company's sales are merely stable from one quarter or year to the next, they are considered unsuccessful (or would be if the economy as a whole weren't currently shrinking). If a country's or state's or city's population isn't increasing, that's considered a sign of problems. There will come a day when that trend stops, whether it's in 2030 or probably much later. The only question is whether we'll bring population growth to a "controlled landing" or to a crash.

    --
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  14. Re:Too bad for the "organic food" folks... by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 4, Informative

    At present rate we have what ... 100 years of potash in the ground? At some point we will have to sustain the production with only atmospheric nitrogen.

    Just because the same kind of revolutions need to keep happening doesn't mean they will ... all our revolutions up till now have dependent on non renewable resources, if we don't have a sustainable revolution in energy production in the near future (and I don't think liquid sodium reactors qualify) we will be fucked. Because all the other potential revolutions will almost certainly depend on that, it's not going to come from mining non renewable resources any more.

  15. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Affluence = population control. Note how Europe and the US are experiencing all of their population growth now due to immigration? It doesn't require mandatory birth control measures (or enforced abortion laws, etc) to keep the population down.

    All you really have to do is provide the masses with a better form of retirement plan than: 'have a shitload of kids so that at least some will live long enough to care for you when you get old'.

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  16. Re:And the religions of the world.... by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Did it ever occur to you that most major religions discourage birth control (and especially abortion) because it blocks the production of life - something they esteem to hold in the highest regard? Mind you, I'm only discussing the concept, not the practitioners.

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  17. Re:Sigh, These TreeHuggers must need more $$ by Gadget_Guy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Uh oh, another "non-profit" group must need money to supplement their jet's and expensive dinners.

    That is a stupid argument. Imagine you see someone disemabarking from a private jet, wearing a suit that costs more than the salaries of you and I combined, just so that they can attend an expensive dinner in another city. Which is more likely?

    1. They are a climate scientist (or member of a tree-hugging, non-profit group).
    2. They are a mining executive.

    Which side of this argument has the most financial interest in arguing either for or against limiting our use of Earth's resources? Let's face it, you don't get super rich by becoming a climate scientist.

    It reminds me of when the three CEOs of the car industry all took private planes to lobby Washington for a taxpayer handout. But no, I am sure that you are right that it is the tree-huggers who are the ones trying to greedily screw us all for money.

  18. Well, of course. by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course. Human civilizations are about 3000 years old, but industrial civilization is only 200 years old. Only in the past 100 years has large-scale resource extraction, large enough to make a big dent in potential supply, been feasible. The really rich ores, like veins of copper with over 1% metal, are long gone. Over the next century, lots of stuff is going to run out. Oil production peaked in 2005. There hasn't been a major new energy source in the last half century; just improvements on previous ones.

    The "free market will solve all problems" crowd was insisting that peak oil would never happen. But it did. The price of oil has tripled without an increase in supply.