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Ray Ozzie's Departing Memo a Warning To Microsoft
itwbennett writes "In a parting memo to Microsoft, Ray Ozzie urges Microsoft to 'really, truly, seriously start thinking beyond the PC,' writes blogger Chris Nurney. Nurney suspects that 'Ozzie has been making these points internally for some time,' and that the memo 'could be his way of putting it in the public record.' Some of the memo's juicy bits: 'It's important that all of us do precisely what our competitors and customers will ultimately do: close our eyes and form a realistic picture of what a post-PC world might actually look like, if it were to ever truly occur. ... Today's PCs, phones & pads are just the very beginning; we'll see decades to come of incredible innovation from which will emerge all sorts of "connected companions" that we'll wear, we'll carry, we'll use on our desks & walls and the environment all around us.'"
"Sent from my iPad"
Do you remember.. Windows Mobile 6? Pocket PC? Yeah, I developed for those platforms, and I can tell you that Microsoft seriously didn't give a shit. I doubt they have changed much since then. When your core product is for PCs, it's hard changing your company's thinking.
Buckle your ROFL belt, we're in for some LOLs.
Smartphones and tablets are a step in the right direction, but they're nowhere near the ideal of ubiquitous computing that Ozzie is suggesting. Much like Microsoft, you're not looking far enough ahead.
The phrase "survival of the fittest" actually came from a mistake that was made when Darwin's "On the Origin of Species" was translated into German. The correct phrase, and concept, is "Survival of the most adaptable".
It's just as true in the business world as it is in nature.
Technoli
Frankly I am starting to wonder if Microsoft is going to be the next Curtis Wright.
In 1954 just about every airliner on the planet used their engines. The president of the company said that they could keep making that one engine until the end of time and people would still be buying them.
By 1960 they where no longer a major producer of aircraft engines.
Today they make valves for hydraulic systems.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
When Ray says "Beyond the PC" what he's really saying is "beyond Windows OS".
This has been Microsoft's greatest nemesis, is their own myopia. They view everything with the tinged glasses of Windows. You can see this with Windows Mobile 7, even if it isn't "Windows" is trying to leverage "Windows 7" branding.
Specifically addressing what you're saying, the problem with Courier was that it was Kindle wannabe. They kept the book format when quite frankly it shouldn't have. Try turning the page with one hand. The KindleApp for iPad is even better than Kindle. And it is more useful than any standalone ebook reader.
Which brings me to tablets: If Microsoft makes a tablet that isn't some bastardized copy of Windows, I'll take a look. Until then, no thank you. Buying an overpriced one use computing device to me seem silly, and trying to shoehorn Windows into a tablet type device is just as pointless.
Apple gets all of this. Apple is no longer just a "computer company" and is branching out and fixing all the other related edges of technology that has been hamstrung by companies like Microsoft and their limited thinking. Apple is not just Macs any more, and that is a big reason they are the new Microsoft, and #2 in Market Cap, possibly getting to #1 next year sometime.
Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
The Xbox 360 is a fantastic product? So you've never owned one have you?
RROD pops to mind and the overall 16.1% failure rate over 6 to 10 months use.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_technical_problems
http://www.tgdaily.com/games-and-entertainment-features/36070-report-xbox-360-failure-rate-above-15
Plus the fact that it didn't support an HD format for games, no Blu-ray support now, no Bluetooth support, it's not that fantastic of a device.
The phrase "survival of the fittest" actually came from a mistake that was made when Darwin's "On the Origin of Species" was translated into German. The correct phrase, and concept, is "Survival of the most adaptable".
Since the phrase was first used by Herbert Spencer in 1864, writing in English, I don't think so. Darwin himself used the phrase "natural selection" and not "survival of the fittest," but in 1869 he did quote the "survival of the fittest" phrase (correctly attributing the quote to Spencer); and did it in English (not translating it into German).
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/340400.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_of_the_fittest
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
So what Darwin was saying is... the transformers will outlive humans?
A lot further ahead! Better computer security, fewer viral plagues, faster software, more open standards, better interoperability, cheaper software and support. Microsoft is just a drain on the economy that we can't afford in this economic climate, just ask the London Stock Exchange.
You aren't really listening. iOS is designed fro the ground up to be a touch-based OS. It sits on top of a specialized OSX platform. Android is similar, but is made by Google and sits on top of Linux. The reason why Blackberry touch smartphones have sucked is that the retro-fitted their old apps, and aren't all optimized for touch. Windows mobile seems to suffer from similar problems. You need to think of it from the user paradigm rather than making it "A pc on a phone, or a PC on a tablet." Apple and Google have done a much better job at that.
I own a Zune (I bought the Zune80 when it came out).
The Zune software was fantastic (on the PC). The Zune UI ran rings around the iPod (on the Device). The sound quality was better.
Zune deserved better. It was superior to the iPod Classic line in every way. I've seen (but do not own) the Zune HD, and it's good as well, though it pales in comparison to the iPod Touch because of the ecosystem and apps available.
I'm actively looking forward to being able to ditch my iPhone for a Windows Phone in a year or two. I hope Microsoft doesn't manage to screw it all up.
- Spryguy
There are three kinds of people in this world: those that can count and those that can't
Apple gets all of this. Apple is no longer just a "computer company" and is branching out and fixing all the other related edges of technology that has been hamstrung by companies like Microsoft and their limited thinking. Apple is not just Macs any more, and that is a big reason they are the new Microsoft, and #2 in Market Cap, possibly getting to #1 next year sometime.
Close, but no. In all seriousness, Apple does not 'get all of this' in the manner that you suggest. They're not looking for 'superior' so much as they are looking to lock users into their App stores. So to claim that Apple doesn't possess limited thinking is, in my view, patently false. They are just as single minded, but towards a different end. They don't care about the technology in the least (iphone that doesn't work well as a phone, anyone?), but they ARE indeed all about the platform and the vehicle to future sales that it represents.
Linux is a kernel, not a complete OS. The bits on top of the Kernel are Android OS. Lots of devices run the kernel, but have limited OS capabilities because it is easy to do and highly modularized. Android is more like Gnome or KDE (not exact though)
Windows is much much more monolithic.
Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
That "memo" runs more than 3500 words. If that counts as a typical memo over at Microsoft, I think they've got another problem beyond the one Ozzie's term paper discusses.
#DeleteChrome
The great fallacy nowadays is that everything should be designed for the Apple consumer.
did you forget to take your meds?
> like my life sucks because of it. (I could have won concert tickets but my phone couldn't even preform a simple speed dial in under 10 seconds).
Seriously. Your life sucks because a toy telephone prevented you from winning concert tickets?
> Was was thinking the same thing.
How on god's green earth is this comment marked "insightful"? I see slashdot is still the festering circlejerk it always was. Makes me long for the days of goatse and beowulf clusters and first post. At least that was entertaining.
Apple is not just Macs any more, and that is a big reason they are the new Microsoft, and #2 in Market Cap, possibly getting to #1 next year sometime.
Apple surpassed Microsoft's market cap in May, and remains second highest mcap in the S&P 500 to exxonmobil. MS is third. There is a pretty big gap between exxonmobil and apple, still. Unlikely to close in the next year. But I'm guessing you weren't taking petro companies into consideration in your rankings.
This comment is fully compliant with RFC 527.
Apple is not Mac, the same way Microsoft is Windows.
What you said may be true, or may simply be a way of monetizing the marketplace in a way you don't like, but that is not my point. Apple is not a "computer company" the way Microsoft is a "Windows" company.
There is nothing at Microsoft that isn't either "Windows" or "Me too" device (XBOX, ZUNE).
And even if you think iPod, iPad, and iPhone are in the "me too" category, they revolutionized industries that weren't "computer" related. And frankly, the iPod, iPhone and iPad make anything before them look ... "PC". Those devices transcend computing.
I don't have iPad or Mac or iPhone. I have an iPod full of music, and haven't bought a single thing from ITMS. I prefer buying tunes on CD and ripping them, because they can go on ANY device I want. I'm not locked into anything Apple.
Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
It's not the same, though. The point that Ray Ozzie is trying to make is that, at some point, Microsoft needs to stop following the industry and become the one the industry follows again.
Windows Phone 7 is great, but Apple was the one who popularized smart phones as we currently know them. Tablets are coming to the market with Microsoft software on them, but Apple was the one who popularized tablets. For years, before the iPod changed Apple, Apple made ends meet because they had a fervent fan base and catered to them. It didn't hurt Apple that they were always playing catch up because they had total control over their environment. They made money on software and hardware. Microsoft is in the unique position of being a primarily software based company. If sales of Windows plummet, they don't have that kind of closed system like Apple has to keep them chugging along. Additionally, Microsoft is such a huge company at this point, they have to be an industry innovator again or face crumbling apart.
I agree that Microsoft is making waves to change their image. They're the "cool" company (in the US) when it comes to videogame consoles and no one EVER saw that coming. Zune has its diehards (and rightfully so, the Zune HD is terrific hardware). Windows Phone 7 might get its following, that's yet to be seen. And Windows 7 is just a pleasure to use, IMO. But the PC market is shrinking at a rapid pace and the only other market that MS is #1 in right now is videogame consoles...and that's not the cash cow that Windows and Office are.
Microsoft is literally sleeping on the chance to expand the xbox brand and make it the only box you need in your house for entertainment. Xbox SHOULD be the industry leader in iptv right now, but they're not. And that's a crying shame...because our other two players are Google (who's going to eventually throw something free on the table and leave it to a hundred vendors to shape it into a usable product) or Sony (who's going to try to tie everything into purchases and season passes, not true iptv) and I think that Microsoft, as a company that's not tied to advertisement (Google) or owns huge assets of media (Sony) could shape this market in a way that's good for consumers and runs off of hardware that's already existing. It would also secure Microsoft's spot as console leader for generations to come.
Microsoft is sleeping on all sorts of opportunities now. Ray Ozzie, stating this as an insider, is really a doom and gloom statement from an investors standpoint.
Wise men say, "Forgiveness is divine, but never pay full price for late pizza."
As wireless internet access becomes even more robust, the first company that can deliver a solution to keep a user's "state" consistent across all of their devices is going to be the winner. It's a problem that the industry has been working on since the dark days of syncing your contacts up through a USB1 connection to a palm pilot. I imagine it's why Apple is building their enormous data center - they are about to make manual data management a thing of the past. A slick interface could yield some badass results for stepping your data to a network volume if it's unusually large, and then streaming backups during off-peak hours to iBackup or whatever you want to call it. Otherwise, every time you start to edit a doc, the filesystem is intelligently streaming the backup directly to their data center. If your laptop gets nicked, then you log in to your me.com account, destroy the encrypted volume if they connect it to the internet, and grab another laptop and a few hours later you are back up and running.
Computers are going to disappear - your information will be always available from any device with an internet connection. You'll just have a variety of interfaces to it, from your phone, to your media viewer (iPad) to your netbook (I mean MacBook Air, Steve!) and your desktop. They will all sync intelligently, and store larger, non-streamable information locally on SSD drives. Only video creators will be forced to continue managing physical volumes until 4g goes nationwide and uncapped.
It's a good idea, and a fucking bummer that Apple is the only company doing it.
Or all of the above?
I sometimes wonder if MS senior management isn't full of guys making good money, looking at how much time they have until retirement is a real option and thinking "If we can just string this Windows/PC model along for a couple more years, I'll be set. Retire in my late 50s. Second home (or boat or ....) paid for. Enough savings to live off until 401k money kicks in."
I can see where it could almost become a cultural mindset, coupled with a financial analysis that says the "real money" comes from Windows, Office, Exchange & SQL. Everything else (phone, tables, hardware, software, etc) is a half-assed feint to keep Wall St. quiet, keep key industry experts locked into long employment contracts and out of the hands of competitors, and occasionally hit the lottery when something sticks to the wall.
Or is it the actual management model? Keep the Windows/Office core profit engine running, fuck around on the margin and assume you can manipulate the market enough to keep your dominance forever?
Windows Phone 7 : Too Late to the party ...
Or perhaps it saw that the party was being held on a Sunday night, knew it had work to go to the next day and decided not to go.
:-/
Meanwhile, Apple (which had a great time and was the life of the party) turned up at work late, badly hungover and looking like death. After failing the drugs test, it was finally let go by the Company, around the (same time that Microsoft was given that promotion) and went into a sad decline, never able to move on from its college partying days and accept that its popularity with the cool college kids didn't mean long term success.
Err... to be honest, that sounds like there should be a metaphor in there, but on reflection I doubt it. It was just my extrapolation of one colloquial expression to the point of drivel. Sorry folks
"Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
Granted, one's quality of life shouldn't depend on winning concert tickets. But the point stands: Windows Mobile phones (and I've got a pile of them on my shelf) sucked as phones. Even on the speedy-for-its-time HTC Advantage, the phone keyboard lagged. Punch a key, wait, key is highlighted and tone is heard. Repeat. IIRC, every WinMo phone I had did this to some extent.
I don't care if MSFT promises a pony with every Windows Phone 7, crap like that made me swear off WinMo for good.
You, along with many others, liked Courier because it was a fantasy. It was never a real product, just a fake rendering of a very interesting idea. Its main purpose was to distract interest away from Apple's tablet, and it appears to have done its job for some (although not nearly well enough to keep the iPad from becoming a huge success).
But the truth also is that Microsoft has a huge dominance on computer market and that isn't going anywhere.
That's true, but not the point. The point is post-PC. MS is extremely weak on that front, and just like Sony losing their lead from the Walkman to the iPod, MS's huge lead in the PC world won't amount to much in the non-PC world.
Just bring me something that Courier was supposed to be. I want it, I need it!
It's not going to happen. I'd suggest you give up on it, at least for the time being. Otherwise you'll be in perpetual frustration. It's like wishing expectantly for wizard powers. By focussing too much on the non-real, you pass up on the real. MS teased you with the Courier, but what they gave you, later than promised, was a shitty Windows 7 slate from HP.
Say what you will about Apple, but at least they promote real products that they actually deliver. You say screw iPad, you want Courier. Well, sure, but iPad has the supremely important feature of actually existing.
...the reality of the Kin fit in with your fantasy view of Microsoft?
WP7 about 2-3 years behind the competition. It's only saving grace is it's different and the OS upgrades are supplied by Microsoft.
Courier was concept art, just an idea. The fact it was seen to be cool and got killed just shows how badly run Microsoft are. They're almost as bad as car companies who draw up amazing looking concept cars only to have them made ugly by consulting the great unwashed on what they want.
Forget the imminent Microsoft tablets, they're just PCs in a small form factor running an OS with a small veneer of touch usability. Instant on? nope, fast bootup? nope, long standby time? nope. They've been around since 2001 and there's been as many sold as Apple has sold iPads (which were only released this year).
iPad works because all of the applications it runs have been designed for a touch screen OS. There is no windows or icons to drag, no start menu, no filemanager, no double tapping the screen, no reset button and best of all, no silly plastic stylus to lose.
If you want a touch screen computer, at least buy one that an OS designed for touch screen. Even the former head of the tablet project at Microsoft couldn't get people on side for the project, it's why there's no touch screen version of Office.
HP and Microsoft shares fell following their tablet announcement, which shows how (un)impressive it was:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/186172/why_the_microsofthp_tablet_is_a_big_disappointment.html
There's only so many times you can rehash the same old rubbish.
"LOL WUT?" The smartphone market has run its course? You are kidding, right? Smart phones are going to continue to sell strong as ever. While they may not grow a ton, people have to stop pretending like growth is all that matters. It smacks of wet behind the ears stock investors who have no sense of scale or history.
Smart phones are going to be a huge market until, well, someone figures out something to replace the phone. I haven't even heard of any ideas along those lines much less products. So I think it is safe to say the market has decades, or more, of life.
Also you might notice that in terms of OS the battle has not been won, nor may it ever be won. Symbian didn't win (it was by far the largest), BlackBerry OS didn't win, iOS hasn't won, Android hasn't won. The fight is on going, and it may well go on forever. Given the locked down nature of phones and carriers, there may not be the push for a single platform like there was with PCs. There people wanted software portability, but you don't get that on phones anyhow.
Also you might note that MS is and was in the mobile market. Windows CE smart phones have been around for a long time and while not huge weren't trivial either. This is a (needed) revamp/update, not a new entrance in to a market.
Fitness in the context of evolution doesn't refer to physical fitness.
I think it was in the sperm wars documentary.
You know if I saw a video online titled, "Sperm Wars", the last thing I would conclude was that is a documentary.
My first thought would be something out of Japan, and it does not involve whales.
In my high school, for example, the jocks were generally seen as losers and the band kids (who were also quite nerdy) got the pussy. The were "fitter" Darwinistically.
Are you sure you are not posting from an alternate universe?
I noticed Slashdot made some changes with the javascript but....
"We’ve seen agile innovation playing out before a backdrop in which many dramatic changes have occurred across all aspects of our industry’s core infrastructure."
It's a boring sentence trapped in a boring, verbose memo, so I found it a new home in a Philip K Dick story:
"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched c-beams glitter in the dark near the Tanhauser Gate. I watched agile innovation playing out before a backdrop in which many dramatic changes have occurred. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. [pause] Time to die."
Have you really been paying attention to the latest Windows OS's? Server 2008 isn't "monolithic"-- if you look at Server Core, there's not even an "explorer" to run. There's just a command shell, sitting on top of the Windows kernel.
I'm not a fanboi, but I do give credit where credit is due-- It's been a long time since Windows was as monolithic as you are suggesting. It is just as modular as any other OS now-- they just don't provide the users the opportunity to change the shell or other components. In this sense, it's perfectly reasonable to say that there's a modified Windows kernel, and WP7 just has a different interface to that kernel, same as iOS, or Android.
I don't moderate anymore. Karma penalty for 90% fair mods? Can I mod that unfair?
Compare and contrast Ray Ozzie's farewell with that of another recent high-level departure, J. Allard. These men, at the heart of technology for all their adult lives, were in positions of the highest influence at Microsoft. They're obviously both brilliant, and not needing to cash a paycheck. They see a change coming - a huge change - and they want to be a part of it. They don't see that happening while they work in Redmond. So they go. But on the way out they look back at the poor souls they leave behind and they tell them in their farewell: "You too can be a part of this new world. You just have to think different." The door swings shut with a click and the obvious conclusion remains unsaid: "but you won't."
Help stamp out iliturcy.