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Once-Darling Ethanol Losing Friends In High Places

theodp writes "It's now conceivable, says BusinessWeek's Ed Wallace, that the myth of ethanol as the salvation for America's energy problem is coming to an end. Curiously, the alternative fuel may be done in by an unlikely collection of foes. Fervidly pro-ethanol in the last decade of his political career, former VP Al Gore reversed course in late November and apologized for supporting ethanol, which apparently was more about ingratiating himself to farmers. A week later, Energy Secretary Steven Chu piled on, saying: 'The future of transportation fuels shouldn't involve ethanol.' And in December, a group of small-engine manufacturers, automakers, and boat manufacturers filed suit in the US Court of Appeals to vacate the EPA's October ruling that using a 15% blend of ethanol in fuel supplies would not harm 2007 and newer vehicles. Despite all of this, the newly-elected Congress has extended the 45 cent-per-gallon ethanol blending tax credit that was due to expire, a move that is expected to reduce revenue by $6.25 billion in 2011. 'The ethanol insanity,' longtime-critic Wallace laments, 'will continue until so many cars and motors are damaged by this fuel additive that the public outcry can no longer be ignored.'"

78 of 586 comments (clear)

  1. We borrow money from China to fund corn... by Trip6 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...and so it ends up everywhere, from our stomachs to our gas tanks. High-fructose corn syrup anyone?

    --
    I hate being bipolar; it's awesome!
    1. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by AK+Marc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So what's your solution to the problem?

      I thought the implied solution is to stop giving welfare to the megacorps over-producing corn. If you don't like that, why are you supporting welfare for the rich?

    2. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by Alex+Belits · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What the fuck are you talking about? US destroyed its industry and "outsourced" it to China. Raw materials are worthless if you can't make anything out of them.

      "Energy" (oil) is only a noticeable part of the picture because you can do minimal processing of it, then pump the result into your car, so you can drive 100 miles every day to your office job that manages reselling Chinese imports. This is what US economy got reduced to, and messing with green paper can't change it.

      --
      Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
    3. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by nido · · Score: 5, Insightful

      US destroyed its industry and "outsourced" it to China.

      Actually there's still a lot of good stuff that's made in the US. It's just the labor-intensive jobs - whatever tasks that can't be easily automated - that've been exported to Mexico, Central America, and China.

      For example, about a year and a half ago I met a man who owns a machine shop... His buisness was making tubular parts for telescopes. Mostly he just loads raw material and watches over his machines as the computer tells them what to do... 20 years ago an employee would have been required for each one.

      Pinky's Brain (grandparent post) had a very good point about stimulus checks for all citizens. No more of this 1 in 7 on foodstamps crap - everyone should get foodstamps, or a guaranteed basic income.

      There's always work to be done, it's just a matter of organization, and matching available hands with tasks. Money is the organizing principle that allows us to value other peoples' labor. The true distortion in the economy comes from allowing privately owned banks to expand the money supply by a factor of 10+ by making loans. The Fed's recent Quantitative Easing policy is a step in the right direction, because it finally creates a little bit of interest-free money (90% of the money the Treasury pays on the $600 billion in bonds that the Fed will buy will be returned to the treasury - see Ellen Brown's What's Really Behind QE2?).

      hope that helps. :)

      --
      Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly.
      www.teslabox.com
    4. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by Kreigaffe · · Score: 4, Insightful

      As a lazy fucking layabout I assure you there are many more of me, and a guaranteed basic income reads as nothing more than me never having to work a day in my life, for anything, ever.

      Many, many millions of others will look at it precisely the same way.

      Fuck the collective good, I'll get mine.

      This is a fact. This is reality. This is why communism never works and socialism always slowly fails. There must be a way to purge the system from those who will suck all they can from society but never add one bit of their own work. That is nature. In a small group you can kick members out -- kibbutz communes and such. On a larger scale, you wind up with the Russian solution -- that is, you kill people.

      --
      ... still waiting for this free-as-in-beer free beer I keep hearing about. :|
    5. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by afidel · · Score: 2

      would totally collapse and people by the millions would starve to death.

      Exaggerate much? Yeah losing access to 'cheap' oil would put a damper on our economic recovery, but if you want to look at the mid-term horizon it's an inevitability so we should definitely be making plans to change off it anyways. If we start investing in industry's that can function without a dwindling resource we can reestablish our manufacturing base and set it up for the next century of growth, or we could keep on the current path and end up as a nation of GM's. We should be pouring money into things like industrial algae farms and solar thermal plants, not putting up one demo plant a decade. The economic collapse was largely about fiscal policy but it certainly wasn't helped by the erosion of the manufacturing base and the dependence on $140/bbl imported oil.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    6. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by dr2chase · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I've never understood the incredible attraction of a flat tax; it's not as if piecewise linear functions were what made filing taxes hard. The attraction, for me, of a guaranteed minimum income, is that all the income-indexed subsidies that we have, as they phase out (in a relatively narrow income band), act as a rather high marginal rate tax on working poor-ish people. That's a problem.

      "Guaranteed minimum income" is just another way of saying "subsidies that avoid the phase-out problem". And the thing is, supposed the GMI is $10k , and then a 20% (marginal) "tax" kicks in at $50k. At $100k income, you're still getting your "minimum income" , but you're also paying the same amount in "tax". Money's fungible, people should not get all hung up about the labels attached to it, just figure out subsidies and tax codes so you have a healthy economy, enough money to run the government, and you avoid pathologies like the way current subsidies getting turned off in a narrow income band provide such a disincentive to work.

    7. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by Kreigaffe · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Ok? Good for you? That's a hobby?

      I can't tell this to you more clearly.

      If my housing and food were guaranteed to be paid for, for the rest of my life, I'd never bother doing a damned thing past that. I'd have endless hobbies and diversions and time-wasters, but I'd not get a job. I know this about myself. I also know I am not alone.

      If you look at societies where people are handed all they need to survive without ever having to do anything on their own.. that's about as far as they make it. Sure, some will work hard for really no reason, but many will just choose to exist. And fill the time with drugs, and with sex, and other "vices". This is human nature. We are selfish and exploitative.

      --
      ... still waiting for this free-as-in-beer free beer I keep hearing about. :|
    8. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by donscarletti · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I live in a country that has a livable unemployment benefits. The unemployment rate is at 5.2% and many other countries with similar benefits have rates as low or lower (whereas US is ~10 IIRC). Basically, unemployment benefits cover food, clothes medicine, vocational training and maybe a TV or PC to drown your boredom, but it is a frugal, tight kind of life without flavour, luxury and excitement, plus it is humiliating and tedious to collect government handouts, being a worker is a far easier and happier life. I have never collected those benefits, but I do not object to them, it keeps the poor off the street, it drives up wages for the working class and it provides a sense of security and calm when times are tough. It's not that expensive, because at 5% there are 19 people contributing to each unemployed person and the handouts are about 1/4 that of a worker's before tax salary, meaning I spend 1/80th of my money to clear away beggers to the outer suburbs and give myself and my family something to fall back on in hard times, this is OK I think.

      --
      When Argumentum ad Hominem falls short, try Argumentum ad Matrem
    9. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by lpq · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You don't work -- no large screen TV's for you...but you get your food...

      What's wrong with that?

      You just want to sit and be a vegetable? We can probably make it so that you'll use very few resources -- you'll benefit the nation.

      So the problem with this is?

      This nonsense gets trotted out every time someone comes up with providing basics for all guaranteed.

      Thing is, is that *MOST* people in the US want more in life.

      Your "logic" is very flawed.

    10. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by drinkypoo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If we lost access to foreign oil all at once, that's true. But otherwise we have the technology and the resources to replace 100% of our foreign oil consumption with renewable sources. "We" don't do this because there is no one "we", the corporations making the fuel and who have to be displaced in order to move forward are making plenty of profit and see no reason to change. Nobody making decisions today is likely to feel the full effects, so why worry?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    11. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by rkd2110 · · Score: 2

      The thing that bothers me most about your comment is not how wildly inaccurate it is (which is true) but the modding it got which reflects the amount of people that share your ignorance.

      First, every single developed country I can think of has some sort of "guaranteed basic income". I can't think of any country in which rampant slouching ensued and society collapsed upon itself. The reason why this didn't happen is in your own comment:

      If my housing and food were guaranteed to be paid for, for the rest of my life, I'd never bother doing a damned thing past that. I'd have endless hobbies and diversions and time-wasters, but I'd not get a job. Sure, some will work hard for really no reason, but many will just choose to exist ...And fill the time with drugs, and with sex, and other "vices".

      What you seem to fail to understand is that the basic income you are guaranteed by the state is just that - basic. It covers housing, heating and most of your basic groceries. It doesn't cover computer equipment, video games, cell phone, books, drugs, clothes, condoms, beers at the pub, toys, sports equipment or coffee.

      If you're telling me that you will be content with just the bare basics you will get from the state, you can achieve something fairly similar all by yourself. Work part-time, two shifts a week, in Walmart. Rent an one room apartment. Drink only bulk bought, store-brand soda and eat boiled potatoes and bread. Here it is, your slouchy heaven.

    12. Re:We borrow money from China to fund corn... by GooberToo · · Score: 2

      All too often people on slashdot conflate so many issues. This is one of them.

      Ethanol is not the same thing as corn!!! We current get ethanol from corn because of bribed politicians. The reality is, ethanol is absolutely a viable fuel source - just not from corn!

      Hemp is currently illegal in the US despite not having THC (active ingredient in pot). Please note, hemp IS NOT POT. There are literally zero THC strains of hemp available now. And smoking even the low THC strains of hemp (almost all hemps) will not get you high; but will provide for a killer headache. Hemp uses a fraction of the water (which is quickly becoming a significantly source resource - even in the US) corn does. Hemp is naturally drought resistant (unlike corn). Hemp is naturally pest resistant (unlike corn - which has not been genetically engineers - and showing it is now toxic to mammals). And yet, per acre, hemp can produce 2x-3x more ethanol than corn. Hemp provides nutritious food, clothes (directly competes with cotton and wool), and even industrial lubrication. Best of all, hemp grows in many zones where corn absolutely refuses to grow.

      Many countries, even including Canada, have starting working to shift (on a small, experimental basis) parts of their agro economies onto hemp. The fact that hemp isn't even legal to grow in the US (last legalized to support WWII - which is "ditch weed" - which can not get you high - contrary to the ignorance spewed by law enforcement*) wonderfully hints at corruption in the US government.

      The vast majority of "ditch weed" is from WWII efforts to grow. It is possible to find ditch weed which can get you high, but that's because its wild pot, and not wild hemp.

      The only bad thing about hemp is that it directly competes with cotton, wool, corn farmers, energy and chemical companies. Not hard to see why its illegal in the US.

  2. Who extended the tax credit? by Bedouin+X · · Score: 4, Informative

    The "newly-elected" Congress hasn't been seated yet.

    --
    Dissolve... Resolve... Evolve...
    1. Re:Who extended the tax credit? by hargrand · · Score: 2, Informative

      You must not be following current events (nor have passed basic reading comprehension).

      And you're clearly blind to blatant, overt sarcasm.

    2. Re:Who extended the tax credit? by hargrand · · Score: 2

      Okay, let's set aside the sarcasm for a moment. When I read the little gem in the article summary above that states:

      Despite all of this, the newly-elected Congress has extended the 45 cent-per-gallon ethanol blending tax credit that was due to expire, a move that is expected to reduce revenue by $6.25 billion in 2011

      (emphasis mine) I have to respond. The newly elected Congress is the 112th congres which as Bedouin X indicated has not yet been seated; it was his comment with which I sarcastically agreed. bkpark's comments actually agreed with this, though he clearly didn't see my comment as being in agreement. So a Troll? Perhaps, and if so, I'll wear that badge proudly here... I certainly hooked you and bkpark.

    3. Re:Who extended the tax credit? by hargrand · · Score: 2

      And you sir, have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

  3. The newly elected congress? by AnonGCB · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I'm not exactly sure, but I don't think they've actually done anything yet. Everything so far is the lame duck congress.

    --
    http://CryoLANparty.com/ A lan I'm staff on!
    1. Re:The newly elected congress? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      That is correct. They are not seated in office yet. The extension of the subisidies the article mentions and the Republicans the author tries to blame have not been sworn in. I felt that his idiotic attempt at bashing Republicans was pathetic and cast a negative light on the entire article.

  4. Quoting Homer by TeknoHog · · Score: 5, Funny

    Alcohol: the cause of, and the solution to, all of life's problems.

    --
    Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
    1. Re:Quoting Homer by Pharmboy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      How apropos! I have already had TWO generators get trashed ($650+ each) and have had several other mechanical issues with ethanol in non-car engines. Ethanol is the worst thing you can put in a lawn mower, boat, or other motor that isn't run every day. It sucks more water out of the air than the average dehumidifier, which will literally RUST out the engine components.

      Putting alcohol in my small motor fuel has created hundreds of dollars of damage, and has created MORE carbon than regular gas, due to all the replacement parts that had to be manufactured again, and shipped. It sounds good on paper, but by the time you add the cost of subsidizing Monsanto and adding the damage, it costs more than it saves in both money and carbon.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    2. Re:Quoting Homer by Pharmboy · · Score: 4, Informative

      Then you don't understand it. All my generators have been four stroke, as is the boat. Living in a small town, gas without ethanol is not available locally, and in North Carolina, they were mandating ethanol years before the feds due to pollution. Running Stabil in fuel is nice and is done year round but doesn't change the chemical reality that ethanol is hygroscopic. Most engines have steel parts. Water rusts steel. Engines that aren't run regularly and have tanks that vent to the atmosphere build up water. Not quite sure why you don't get it. It would appear the majority here do.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    3. Re:Quoting Homer by Pharmboy · · Score: 2

      From an environmental point of view, ethanol isn't better in the US, as we can't produce enough to replace gas if we wanted to. And NO cars in the US are designed to run on 100% ethanol. Every single car, boat, lawn mower, piece of power equipment, emergency generator and other small engine would have to be replaced, costing billions of dollars. Ethanol has its place, but it isn't viable as the primary motor vehicle fuel in the USA. Electric might be in time, but not ethanol. Electricity is much cheaper than ethanol, can be cleaner, doesn't produce agricultural run off, etc.

      While I'm happy it is working for Brasil, you are talking about two completely different types of economy and living standards. We use a lot more fuel per person, and nothing is going to change that. We have winters that you don't have. We have a lower population density in populated areas than you have. We aren't going to change those factors, no matter how much others think we should. Its a non-starter.

      --
      Tequila: It's not just for breakfast anymore!
    4. Re:Quoting Homer by ChrisMaple · · Score: 2

      Water rusts steel.

      Not quite true. Pure water with no access to oxygen will not cause most steel alloys to rust. What water does is create conditions that make rusting and other forms of corrosion easier and faster, by disolving salts, allowing ion transport between dissimilar metals, etc.

      I've read that ethanol is particularly destructive to magnesium and some other light metals that used to be used in small engines.

      --
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    5. Re:Quoting Homer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Because the problem is likely not rusting as you claim. Water is everywhere in the latter half of a combustion engine, esp. a 4 stroke where the byproducts stays in the piston chamber longer. It's IN the damn combustion equation. *There's more water from the combustion process of regular gasoline than what the residual fuel (of which ethanol is 10% or less typically) in the engine when shut down will suck up.*.

      If your engines are dying from rust, you either have a bad mix, or an engine that WOULD HAVE FAILED ANYWAYS.

      That said, ethanol is not all golden. The problem is diverse:

      * small engines tend to be made with inferior, cheaper steel that'll rust sooner

      * small engines lack quality control compared to car engines; proper small engines, however, have been designed with ethanol in mind for years, despite what people say. Not nearly as long as cars, but we're still talking on the order of at least a decade (I've read even earlier, as in early 80s). Mfgs, otoh, have taken advantage of the ethanol smack talk, so when their shit fails, they pass the buck. And people believe it.

      * small engines tend to run hotter, by their nature (smaller mass of metal), and worse, they are air cooled, ethanol fuels runs hotter; engine fries, warps, etc.

      * small engines generally lack onboard computers to compensate for fuel mixture issues

      * small engines often have more plastic parts, which ethanol likes to eat, which then gets spit into the engine or the fuel line, carburator, etc.

      * places that sell gas OFTEN GET THE WRONG MIX--yeah, believe it or not, this sometimes takes out cars (fuel tanks, lines fail)--so imagine that wrong mix in a small engine (I believe this was covered on /. last year)

      * in addition, the water grabbing nature of ethanol isn't really taking place IN the engine, it's that it absorbs water from the atmosphere IN THE TANK. This takes a long time, but still happens. This pushes the combustion equation (Le Chatlier, spelling will be off) to the left side of the combustion equation; makes your engine run leaner, hotter, and more prone to failure. As has been well document, putting water in the input of your engine increases fuel efficiency, but at the sacrifice of engine failure (this is very very well document and was done in WWII to extend range in engines). Your smaller engines do NOT like this.

  5. A little ethanol is good by amorsen · · Score: 3, Informative

    Ethanol is a relatively safe octane booster. As long as temperatures are not too high, it is a great idea to add some ethanol to the fuel, even if you lose a little bit of range.

    With current production methods you really should not try to use it for its energy content though, except perhaps if you have access to a lot of area where you can grow sugar cane. Wasting corn on making ethanol should not be encouraged.

    --
    Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    1. Re:A little ethanol is good by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Corn-derived ethanol has always been either of culinary/recreational interest(which is a fine and salubrious use of corn...) or an artefact of the fact that you will run into serious issues getting anything done in the senate without throwing Senator Cornfed, R/D, Flyover Country a bone... The fact that there are some relatively early presidential primaries in corn country doesn't help either.

    2. Re:A little ethanol is good by chipperdog · · Score: 2

      How about sugar beets also.... Especially in the Red River Valley of the North where sugar beets grow so well that they contemplate plowing some of the crop under many years because there is more sugar in the crop than government subsidies will pay for...The "extra" crop could be turned into ethanol

    3. Re:A little ethanol is good by amorsen · · Score: 2

      Sugar beets are another lousy way to make sugar. They do not grow in high-solar areas, they capture solar energy less efficiently, and their sugar content is lower than sugar cane.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    4. Re:A little ethanol is good by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Informative

      The senators representing America's corn-belt states are actually a pretty even split between republicans and democrats, hence "R/D". Is that illogical? While their positions on god, guns, and gays may differ along party lines, their positions on corn ethanol tend to be homogeneous across them(the cynic might remark that, on that issue, those senators can basically be treated as "Senator Cornfed, ConAgra/ADM"...)

      I hope your little ignorant ass is replaced by an agricultural robot.

  6. Not all ethanol is created the same by Amorymeltzer · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Corn ethanol: bad
    Switchgrass ethanol: good

    There's nothing inherently wrong with ethanol (unless you're under 21 - shame on you majority of populace!) but how we get our current stock is a terrible deal. Corn and farm policies are troublesome, and current ethanol mandates are indeed another subsidy for a growing and yet still ailing production force, but it need not be. Convert some fields into sugarcane or switchgrass, which is vastly more effective for creating biofuels, and that's without all the genetic advances corn has had. We'll get more efficient energy production, another crop will become incredibly profitable, and the corn cycle of "grow more causing prices to drop so grow more" - that's a win-win-win situation.

    --
    I live in constant fear of the Coming of the Red Spiders.
    1. Re:Not all ethanol is created the same by Leafheart · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah. We use Ethanol in Brazil since the early 80s, making them from sugar cane and it is great. Now corn ethanol is ridiculous inefficient.

      --
      --- "When you gotta do something wrong. You gotta do it right. (Fighter)"
    2. Re:Not all ethanol is created the same by PPH · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Lucky you. You don't have a sugar cartel controlling supply and jacking up prices like we do.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    3. Re:Not all ethanol is created the same by icebike · · Score: 5, Insightful

      National Corn Growers Association.

      Now there wouldn't be anything self serving on that site would there?

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    4. Re:Not all ethanol is created the same by tokul · · Score: 2

      Yeah. We use Ethanol in Brazil since the early 80s, making them from sugar cane and it is great. Now corn ethanol is ridiculous inefficient.

      Are you sure that you can grow sugarcane on same location that can grow corn? They have different climate requirements. What grows in Brasil does not always grow in Texas.

    5. Re:Not all ethanol is created the same by That's+What+She+Said · · Score: 3, Informative

      Lucky you. You don't have a sugar cartel controlling supply and jacking up prices like we do.

      Yes, we have. This cartel makes ethanol and sugar. When they're losing on the sugar, they jack up alcohol prices and vice-versa.

      They employ some of the poorest people in Brazil, who work their asses of for cheap money.

      It seems the USA and Brazil are not that different...

    6. Re:Not all ethanol is created the same by Leafheart · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Lucky you. You don't have a sugar cartel controlling supply and jacking up prices like we do.

      As the other user said, yes we do, the usineiros as they are called have a lot of people on the congress (the Agribusiness Lobby is the second larges non-partisan group on the Congress and Senate), and they have a monopoly of a lot of stuff. That means they jack up prices and try to stiffle the market of other type of fuel.

      What happened to balance is that other big farmers decided to jump on the biodiesel wagon, and their lobby was stronger than the Ethanol's, so they got some subsidies to start making Castor Bean diesel. That put them on their place and the prices got a little more controlled. But still that risks upping the price of other produces with more and more farmers jumping at that wagon and forgetting the once great rice, wheat and soy.

      --
      --- "When you gotta do something wrong. You gotta do it right. (Fighter)"
  7. Why engines are falling apart by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Here's a great article about what is happening today with ethanol:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/too-much-alcohol

    "He explains that the legal limit is 10% but that all the fuel distributors cheat and mix in some extra alcohol so they can make a buck. When the mix gets to 15% it’s toxic for two cycle engines. And that is what killed my machines."

    Kiss your chainsaw or gas boat motor goodbye. And your car engine, if the EPA gets their way of increasing the "limit" to 15%.

    1. Re:Why engines are falling apart by J.+T.+MacLeod · · Score: 2

      The US has those, too. However, they are far outnumbered by existing engines that are not built for it.

      What the US needs is a supply chain that doesn't introduce ethanol into the entire fuel supply. And it doesn't need ANY ethanol in the fuel supply until it has a way to produce it that isn't at a loss.

  8. Re:Easy by couchslug · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Pollution shift allows pollution control and avoids depending on the owners of autos to maintain them. Central powerplant upgrades cost less than dispersed vehicle fleet replacement.

    "Smaller (lighter) cars are the only solution."

    Their is no "only solution", there are a vast number of partial, complementary solutions. The "central solution" idea is both stupid and a distraction from intelligent comprehension of the systems that need changing.

    --
    "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
  9. ETOH? No, thanks.... by phoophy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If ETOH were actually worth anything (i.e., didn't harm engines, was *really* energy balance positive, didn't put aldehydes into the atmosphere, cause food prices to go up, could be produced from cellulose, etc.) it could survive without a government subsidy. The only reason it's still lurching along, taking up 40% of the corn produced in the USA, is because the lobbyists, farmers and ETOH producers can continue to suck $$ from the US gummint.

    1. Re:ETOH? No, thanks.... by fermion · · Score: 2
      Almost all energy sources are subsidized in the US. Petroleum and gas cost a fraction of what it does in other countries because of subsidies. Some say it is arbitrary taxes, but it isn't. Look at the damage the BP oil spill caused. Those cost will not be completely be paid by BP. Individuals and the government will cover much of the costs.

      The same is true for mountaintop mining. The issue right now is how much are the operations going to have to pay for cleanup. The operators think they can pollute until there is visible damage to health, other think they should pay to restore the environment to pristine condition. I don't know which is best, but if they are allowed to conduct business in such a way that later on tax payers are going to have to fix things, as is the case with the superfund sites, that is a subsidy. They are asking others to shoulder some of the cost of production. You local restaurant has to cover huge sewer taxes, but mountain top mining does not?

      In the case of ethanol, ethanol itself is really not hugely subsidized. It is the corn. The US runs on a corn economy, so economies of scale make it lucrative to maximize the uses for corn. Unfortunately corn is about the worst thing to make ethanol out of. All it does is replace a largely foreign non-renewable resource with a local more renewable resource, which is good. The bad part is does not really save energy, it encourages us to base our energy needs on fossil fuel, and it burns food as fuel. These are bad thing long therm, though quite acceptable in the short term. If e used ethanol as a short term measure, and built cars that could run on a higher percentage of ethanol, then that would fine. But we don't. And not because of the ethanol subsidy. Because of the petro and corn subsidy.

      Since the subsidies are not going to go away, the answer to subsidize other energy resources. Tax breaks for putting solar cells on houses and building. Give away land needed for wind farms. Many windy places are desolate expanses of otherwise useless land. Make use of it. Let business take any electric car off thier taxes the same way they would a Hummer. Make conservation a issue. The farmers and solar and wind people need subsidies because the petrochem people sucking tax payers out of at least a trillion of dollars a years and then taunting the country with the cheapness of the product, which isn't cheap, just subsidized by taxes.

      --
      "She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
  10. Re:Easy by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2

    You would have to run a fair few numbers to know for sure(once you get into total energy cost of manufacture, and similar considerations, things get kind of hairy...); but vehicle electrification might actually reduce pollution, even if fossil fuels are still being used to generate the power.

    The efficiency of a heat engine depends on your engineering skill and care(precise machining, close tolerances, minimal friction, etc.); but the theoretical maximum efficiency depends in large part on the delta between the temperature of the hot side and the temperature of the cold side. In practice, small, light, engines are usually limited to a pretty modest thermal delta, because they can't pack much insulation, have to be safe enough for passenger vehicles, must be capable of thousands or 10s of thousands of hours of operation with little or no skilled oversight/maintenance, etc. The relatively titanic ones in large power plants, on the other hand, can do considerably better. On the other hand, they suffer electrical conversion losses, and grid losses.

    As you say, more aluminum/polymer 2 seaters and fewer chrome-plated luxury tanks and masculinity-supplementing pickup trucks whose contractor grade diesel powertrains and reinforced suspensions will never face anything scarier than a trip to Best Buy will certainly reduce energy consumption considerably. However, electrification does give one the flexibility to use larger heat engines and/or wind/water/nuclear and other technologies that are seriously impractical for vehicles.

  11. Re:A note by 0123456 · · Score: 3, Informative

    I don't care to argue about eco friendliness, what I care about though is where my money goes. In my case the choice is between brazilian farmers and some saudi trillionaire.

    America imports twice as much oil from Canada as from Saudi Arabia...

  12. Ethanol 10% causes more gasoline usage. by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I have stumbled on "real 100% gasoline" three times in a 2008 Honda Element. Each time, my mileage increased for that tankful from 265 miles to 300 miles.

    Honda: 10% Ethanol, 13 gallon tank mileage to fill up (about 12.25 gallons).

    265 miles. About 21.6 miles per gallon.

    Honda: Gasoline, 13 gallon tank mileage to fill up (about 12.25 gallons).

    300 miles. About 24.4 miles per gallon.

    12% more miles with gasoline than with 10% Ethanol.

    You see the problem, right?

    When using 10% ethanol, I actually burn MORE GASOLINE to travel the same number of miles.

    So ethanol is worse than useless.

    I keep putting this out there so hopefully someone who can reliably get 100% gasoline can perform a formal study.
    This is increasing the amount of gasoline we use, not reducing it.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    1. Re:Ethanol 10% causes more gasoline usage. by bgarcia · · Score: 5, Informative
      You're correct that the money matters, but don't dismiss looking at MPG as well. Let me explain it in more detail.

      With the 10% Ethanol mix, his 12.25 gallon fill-up contained 11.0 gallons of gasoline. He was able to travel 265 miles. That gives us 265/11 = 24.1 mpg, where gallons refers to only the gasoline portion. Yes, I'm ignoring the ethanol portion of the fill-up on purpose.

      With pure gasoline, he went 300 miles on a 12.25 gallon fill-up, giving 300/12.25 = 24.5 mpg.

      Do you see what happened? At best, the ethanol does absolutely nothing useful! At worst, it actually makes your car use even more gasoline. You don't even need the other arguments about it costing more and eating away at engine components to realize that it's a complete waste.

      --
      I'm a leaf on the wind. Watch how I soar.
    2. Re:Ethanol 10% causes more gasoline usage. by randall77 · · Score: 2

      Or maybe he drove the ethanol leg uphill. Or upwind. Or on a day with a different ambient temperature. So many error bars to add to his numbers, I'm not convinced what he saw on a single trial would hold up in a proper controlled experiment.

    3. Re:Ethanol 10% causes more gasoline usage. by ProfessorPillage · · Score: 3, Informative

      You mean someone who can get comparable mixes and run controlled tests... Like NREL?

      http://feerc.ornl.gov/pdfs/pub_int_blends_rpt1_updated.pdf

      They found a decrease in fuel economy of 3.68+/-0.44% at 95% confidence for E10, which is consistent with the ~3.5% decrease in energy density for the fuel.

      I would argue that their tests on 16 vehicles are much more reliable than comparing unknown amounts (only counted the number of miles to get near empty) of unknown fuels (one of which might have about 10% ethanol), in unknown driving conditions using one vehicle, even if it is just one study without peer review.

      Now, there is certainly evidence that the manufacture of ethanol consumes as much or more fossil fuel than the energy content of the ethanol. But that's the cost (along with the resulting additional emissions) we should be comparing to the tailpipe emissions reductions from Ethanol blends.

    4. Re:Ethanol 10% causes more gasoline usage. by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

      I get your point.

      Consider these

      1) A 265 mile or 300 mile trip is the sum of many smaller events. Multiple days of travel (about 8) with 20 to 25 travel events.
      2) Wouldn't you think that a 35 mile travel distance is normally a pretty spectacular difference?
      3) It's been repeated three times so far -- and similar reports from others in this thread.
      3a) So that's about 210 travel events which lead to 900 miles of travel vs 210 travel events which lead to 795 miles of travel.
      4) Regardless of weather, wind, etc. With 10% ethanol, the car got 265 miles/tank consistently for 2 years except for those three weeks.

      I had the same experience once on my 2000 honda element previously. It also got 265 miles per tank and one fillup suddenly went up to 300 per tank, and then right back down to 265 miles per tank next fillup.

      The only factor I've been able to isolate is Shell Stations. Twice at one station near a rich neighborhood and once each at other stations around town.

      Tested the 2005 with premium and still got the same mileage.

      I mean seriously.. if it causes us to use more gasoline to go the same miles-- why are we doing this?

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  13. Re:Unfortunately ethanol requires more land use by vlm · · Score: 2

    Unfortunately ethanol requires even more land use, in an already overcrowded planet.

    And the other problem is it takes two barrels of crude equivalent to manufacture one ethanol equivalent of a barrel of oil.

    --
    "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
  14. Maize ethanol was never a good idea by magus_melchior · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Corn ethanol diverts field corn from the already-mammoth agribusiness industry that pumps field corn into just about every foodstuff in the country-- everything from livestock to all processed foods and fast foods (corn oil, high fructose corn syrup). It thus encourages the expansion of that industry, which uses vast amounts of fossil fuel and its derivatives to grow corn-- that's why many experts say that you don't get nearly as much bang for the buck as you do when you process sugar cane into ethanol. And that doesn't even account for the fertilizer and pesticides/herbicides that end up in the Gulf of Mexico due to runoff (not that it will matter much for the foreseeable future).

    It would be a lot more worthwhile for the government to reduce corn subsidies and use that savings to either cut the deficit or invest in things like renewable energy infrastructure or non-corn biofuel research or even tax breaks for efficiency upgrades. Alas, ADM and Monsanto contribute hugely to PACs of Congressmen who vote to continue the subsidies (and no doubt hire them as lobbyists when they retire), therefore we do not see any change in this regard.

    --
    "We are Microsoft. You shall be assimilated. Competition is futile."
  15. Re:Thank the electoral college by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Almost: In American political discourse, only unpopular subsidies, especially those that present some risk of giving money to poor people(some of the brown persuasion, even!), are referred to as "welfare".

    The correct terms for subsidies given to favored corporations, Real Americans($100,000/year+ preferred), professional sports teams in need of new stadiums, or politically vital constituencies, are (depending on the exact structure of the subsidy) "Price Supports", "Providing Market Stability", "Job Creation", or simply polite silence backed by an impenetrable wall of densely legal technicalities.

  16. Re:Thank God by icebike · · Score: 5, Informative

    Have you ever actually tried to eat the grade of corn used for corn ethanol? I thought not, but believe me, don't try it, you won't be able to, it's a grade lower than that used for silage/cattle feed. It's grown on land too marginal for real human crops and tastes.

    Ah, No. Not true.

    Ethanol has taken over prime farm corn land.

    Ethanol has actually driven up the price of silage corn, and beef.

    It is most often the exact same corn as silage, because there is no point in switching to a lower grade. The seed, planting, and harvesting costs the same, and you cut your market options by growing anything other than cattle grade corn.

    We don't directly eat silage either, so just because it does not taste good to humans when eaten directly is a hollow argument. It tastes pretty good when you eat the cow/pig.

    I'm sure this is where the vegans jump in and pontificate about eating animals, but thats not what this thread is about.

    --
    Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
  17. Re:Easy by jellomizer · · Score: 2

    Easy? Smaller lighter cars?

    Yea right. We only get small cars when we can't afford the big ones. And none of the hippy but Europe does this nonsense.

    1. The United States has a low population density. That means...
        A. A lot of us are located far apart. Making travel long and in the winter more difficult.

        B. Long distances to stores we need shop and get more stuff per shopping.

        C. Public transportation is too cost prohibitive for many municipalities.

    2. Wide weather patterns. Upstate NY. Summer up to 100 degrees winter -10. Snow fall can be up to 3 or 4 inches before the plows come by.

    3. Large rural areas. Dirt roads. That are muddy and slippery.

    4. Comfort. If you need to drive for a longer time it is nice that your ass isn't sore.

    5. Free market. If you thought the tea party was bad about the silly stuff about the health care bill. Try telling the public what car they need to buy. You will see a lot of violence.

    --
    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  18. issues by itzdandy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The issue with Ethanol is really 2 fronts.
    1, corn has a low output per crop for food or for fuel.
    2, Ethanol is hard on an engine, even an engine designed to handle it.

    We are propping up the corn industry claiming that we are saving farmers. The subsidies that keep those farmers on corn is also keeping the from switching to a more appropriate crop.

    Ethanol really tears up engine components such as gaskets and seals. As these items wear at a faster pace with Ethanol, they become less efficient and less reliable.

    I understand the draw for ethanol, it acts sort-of like gasoline which keeps the many millions of cars on our roads compatible with the 'next-gen' fuel. The problem is that it is from a low yiel crop and has an intense and expensive manufacturing process.

    We could product a diesel-compatible biofuel much more easily and out of crops with significantly higher yield. A significant percent of fuel used in America is diesel through trucks and tractors and a push for a more sustainable fuel in a diesel form would change the focus of automakers selling cars in the US.

    It is easier and cheaper to make diesel from corn rather than ethanol, but still not efficient.

    Rapeseed can be be broken down by simply crushing the seed which is ~40% oil. This crop produces about ~127 Gallons per acre. The US in 2009 used about 137Billion gallons of gasoline.
    with some math 137B/127Gallons = 1.07Billion acres. The US is 2.428Billion acres. There are only 922Million acres of farmland.
    hmmmm, so we dont have enough land to grown a renewable fuel unless we both a, stop eating AND b, come up with something that has a ~50% oil content.

    You dont have to be a rocket scientist to do the math from numbers freely available at usda.gov. I would think that any person pushing to eliminate our need for foreign oil or oil in general and actually expecting some level of success would have done a tiny bit of research. We can't grow our fuel, or at the very least we cant grow all of it. We are going to have to use technology to handle this issue, not brute force.

    And on that subject, only ~27% of our energy usage is in transporation. petrolium is about 38% of our energy sources.

    So the real question is, should we really be looking at changing the fuel source for cars right now? Shouldn't we continue to improve out technology for electric and/or hybrid systems, batteries, and more efficient engines while targeting industrial and commercial power uses? This way in the future we can make a much better change in cars when the technology is ready? We could reduce our need on oil by a massive amount with nuclear power and converting many fuel burners to electical heating and cooling. With nuclear power alone we could see as much fuel energy savings as completely replacing the fuel in our cars. We already have nuclear power technology and building more plants will push that technology further ahead. btw, nuclear is just 8 1/2% of out power source.

    I am not saying that we should ignore oil use in cars, just that it is not the best place to start. Batteries and power production, probably nuclear, is what I think is the best route. if we try, we might actually be doing nuclear fusion this century, but fission is proven and reliable and safe.

    1. Re:issues by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      Ethanol really tears up engine components such as gaskets and seals. As these items wear at a faster pace with Ethanol, they become less efficient and less reliable.

      This is a design issue. All the same issues were raised when leaded petrol was phased out. We made do. We advanced. The problem is we don't have a constant spec on petrol. If the government simply said you put x ethanol in all blends of petrol you could come up with the right gasket material and right lubrication system to make the engine run really well on ethanol.

      In Australia we had yet the same problem again when we changed the sulfur spec on diesel. When the first sub 10ppm sulfur diesel hit the market a lot of car's ended up in the workshop because sulfur has natural lubricating properties. Again gasket problems. Again something that we have overcome with change in materials (and perhaps fuel additives?).

  19. Re:Easy by Pentium100 · · Score: 2

    Instead of making smaller and lighter cars, how about making an electric car that is as big as the gasoline or diesel powered cars and has a decent range?

    My car was modified to burn LPG as well as gasoline (originally it was gasoline only), my experience in driving it did not change much (it's a bit more difficult to use LPG), however, I can use cheaper fuel now (where I live, LPG costs about half of what gasoline costs, so even though my car burns more of it, in the end it's still cheaper to use LPG), but I would not want a small car that looks like it was designed purely for aerodynamic properties and not aesthetics (I like corners). Even if my car ran on electricity, my experience with it would not change much (I guess) as long as it had a decent range (or could be recharged in a few minutes).

    I'm sure that a lot of people would not about the internal workings of the car (how many people care whether the car has a carburetor is fuel injection just for the sake of the device, not the results of having it), so I think that people would not care that their SUV or the "chrome-plated luxury tank" runs on electricity instead of gasoline or diesel.

    What you want is for me (and almost everybody else) to abandon whatever reasons I used to choose my car and get a car that you think will be better for me, or actually, it won't be better for me, but maybe better for the environment. I guess that you also want me to pay for it too.

  20. Re:Easy by Shark · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Alright, who's in charge of deciding who gets to live and who gets to die? Population explosions are usually a survival mechanism. Past a certain level of prosperity and education, you have bigger problems with population decline. If you want to 'control populations', give them liberty and education. There are more than enough resources left on earth to reach that goal but our great civilized cultures would rather see the starving masses die off than elevated to our own level if one is to believe people like you.

    --
    Mind the frickin' laser...
  21. Re:Thank God by Galactic+Dominator · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I thought not, but believe me, don't try it, you won't be able to, it's a grade lower than that used for silage/cattle feed.

    You are more full of shit that feeder cattle you pretend to know about. The exact same corn can and does go to an ethanol plant or to a feed lot or even human food consumption processing. The by-product of ethanol is distillers grain and is also fed to livestock among other uses. I was raised on a farm and now have a few cattle of my own on an acreage.

    You can eat and digest normal field corn just fine(GMO arguments aside), although it's not the sweet corn variety which what most people are used to.

    FWIW, most small farmer don't get much or any subsidies for corn production and we nearly all have recognized for years that the ethanol pitch is bullshit. If you want to rage about farmers getting too much unwarranted subsidies, make sure you focus the anger on the big corporate farms because they're the one's that have Congress's ear. About the only benefit small farmer's have seen is the relatively recent sustained rise in corn prices due to the OP's point. The small farmer subsidy era largely went away during the Reagan Administration and has never returned. If you want to check your "fax", look at how many family farms went under in the 80's and the farm bill provisions before, during, and after that time.

    You may also want to consider the reasoning behind subsidies as well. It's essentially a safeguard so that American food supply will be adequate on a yearly basis. If you let market forces run it entirely, there would be large swings in price and availability. Some might say fine, that's the way it should. The problem with is when a core need like food supply become volatile then so does everything dependent on the supply. The society we live in today would not be possible without subsidies to encourage farmers to plant even when there is excess. The argument "There shouldn't be subsidies" is completely different than "We have too many subsidies".

    --
    brandelf -t FreeBSD /brain
  22. FUCK. by Ethanol-fueled · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm so fucked, man.

  23. Re:Easy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This dumb argument comes up each and every time. Less reproduction is the answer, not culling of the current population.

  24. Ethanol pluses and minuses by goombah99 · · Score: 5, Informative

    First the jury has been in for a long time that in terms of Energy per dollar Corn or sugar based ethanol are never going to be a good idea in the US for feedstocks that come from the food chain. However cellolosic ethanol (switch grass, poplar tree, cellulosic waste, etc...) may be quite a good idea. There are strong arguments for them that have yet to be defeated. They need less irrigation and can be grown on lands or seasons otherwise unsuited for crops.

    The big bug-a-boo with these is that they are waiting for a scientific breaktrhough for a process to change cellulose into simple sugars or directly to ethanol or gasoline. There's lots of ways to approach this but all of them are not at the efficiency needed yet. It's not an easy proposal: if digesting cellulose was super easy then more bugs would do it already. It's actually not the cellulose that's the biggest problem, it's the lignose which is about 30%+ of the plant thats slightly harder to deal with biochemically.

    It's likely that some breakthroughs will occur. Theres lots of irons in the fire. Some of them may scale. But if you had to do it tommorrow chances are you'd bet on the wrong pony if you went with one particular approach.

    Thus the primary role that starch and sugar based ethanol plays now is that it seeds the pipeline with ethanol now, so the infrastructure will be in place when cellulosic ethanol comes on line.

    Now why ethanol and not something else more energy efficient. Butanol for example. Or other liquid fuels. THe problem is that when you ad up the cost of replacing our fleet of existing internal combustion engines and fuel infrastructure it's a huge huge huge sum. You can't just pick the "optimal" fuel purely from an maximal energy standpoint. You have to have a way there that does not start with a non-starter like chucking out all the existing engines. Hence Ethanol looks like the common denominator. It's not bad. It's easier to produce ethanol from grains now than it is butanol or gasoline. and it works in the cars we have up to a point.

    As long as we are comminting to cellulosic ethanol, some use of food crops to produce grain-based ethanol now is justifiable. It just can't continue in the long run.

    Another route is commit to bio-diesel from algae. This too has some issues to solve to make it scalable. It can use lower quality water. it can use low grade lands. it is easier to "dry" than ethanol because it is not water soluble so there's less energy waste in turning it into fuels. And you might be able to think of some byproduct for the waste stream from algae (maybe animal feed or fertilizer). SOme of the challenges here are very simple sounding, though no one has entirely solved them yet: how do we quadruple the lipid yield, and how to we get enough CO2 into the water (without burning fuel to create it and pump it.).
    There is enough bad land to fuel the entire nation if we can solve those scaling products.

    It has a path forward through the trucking system (diesel) and through aviation fuels and military fuels. The latter can pay premium prices to subsidize the product effectively since those fuels are more expensive than consume fuels.

    Eventually however that path requires replacing the automobile fleet. But given the path forward in the near term this may not be a non-starter.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    1. Re:Ethanol pluses and minuses by Becausegodhasmademe · · Score: 4, Informative

      I'm a biotech student who's very interested in this stuff. For anyone looking for an expanded explanation of the challenges facing cellulosic ethanol this blog post might be interesting. I've also written about the possible affects that large scale biofuel production may have on food security.

      Cellulosic ethanol would be a big contribution to solving the impending energy crisis. Domestic waste and agricultural waste could be recylced into fuel to supplement demand to some extent, but in order to meet demand grain originally destined for food would have to be diverted. If not regulated properly this would likely cause an increase in global food prices. In a world with circa. 1 billion people starving, this is obviously less than ideal.

  25. Agreed by arcite · · Score: 2

    There are almost 8 billion people on the earth at the moment and more than enough food to go around. It's just not...you know, equitably distributed.

    1. Re:Agreed by toddestan · · Score: 3, Informative

      The only reason we have this much food available is mechanized farming which is highly dependent on fossil fuels (both to run the machinery and to make the fertilizers). Take away the cheap fossil fuels and there would be mass starvation.

  26. Re:Easy by vakuona · · Score: 2

    What do you do on your 35 acre plot though? Honestly asking. You are really in a minority in the developed world. I live in the UK, and I cannot say I much love the small size of houses/flats here. But there ought to be a reasonable density that allows us to have space, and still mean we can have good mass transit.

  27. Re:Thank God by icebike · · Score: 2

    Subsidies once enacted, never seem to go away.
    Regards of market conditions.

    --
    Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
  28. Re:Easy by 0123456 · · Score: 2

    You are really in a minority in the developed world. I live in the UK, and I cannot say I much love the small size of houses/flats here. But there ought to be a reasonable density that allows us to have space, and still mean we can have good mass transit.

    Britain has some of the smallest and most expensive housing in the world, because the post-war Labour government wanted to push people into Stalinist apartment blocks while the Tories didn't want riff-raff living in their country villages; hence there was pretty much unanimous political support for preventing said riff-raff from buying up a piece of land and building a house on it. If development was allowed, there would be about an acre of land per person, and every family could have a house on four acres of their own.

    In fact, you're probably in a minority in the developed world: in most developed nations other than the UK, finding a house with an acre or more of land is not hard.

  29. Re:Unfortunately ethanol requires more land use by GreyFlcn · · Score: 2

    Actually ethanol doesn't eat up that much crude.

    But it eats up tons of natural gas.

    http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2006/05/25/e85-spinning-our-wheels/

  30. Re:I would mod you up if I had the points by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The USD should be losing value, it's the natural evolution of a currency from a country with a trade deficit. America is uncompetetive with low infrastructure investment precisely because the USD has not been allowed to fall by it's trading partners (which have printed money and buying up dollars to make sure that doesn't happen). In the short term the Chinese rather have US factories through outsourcing than factory output, and is selling it's citizens into slavery to make it happen.

    Of course the US should never have gone along with that scam, since at some point the Chinese will decide they have enough factories ... and divert factory output to internal consumption, at which point the US will neither have the cheap goods nor the factories and will be properly double fucked

  31. Re:Easy by geekpowa · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Empirical fact remains that all in all, from one generation to the next, our individual quality of life has been improving since as far as our capacity to understand what historical conditions where like and there is no basis of fact to suggest that imminent change is looming in the next couple of generations. In fact there are plenty of signs to the contrary: world fertility is stabilizing, our relationship with the environment is steadily improving on a number of fronts over the past 30 years; etc etc.

    Yes innovations frequently provide unwanted and unintended consequences; anti-biotics has spawned us the problem of super-viruses, but we are still overall better off. You say "get us out of the mess that the intelligence and resourcefulness of mankind got us into.". So does this mean you shun all technology and innovation (including your computer and your Internet); if so that is your personal wish but it is in my view a sub-optimal position.

    In additional to this, our capacity to weather calamities has improved too. Inspite of this, as far back as our history allows us to perceive, there has never ceased to be a parade of people who insist that the worst is just around the corner, or an appreciable audience for such doom-sayers.

    Yes - the big one may come; an asteroid impact, a zombie virus apocalypse, or some other biblical end-time event. The closest credible threat in living memory, and what I consider to be a real threat was the threat of nuclear annihilation that pervaded from the 60s to the 90s

    I minimize 'alarmists', such as what you admit to be, and with respect, because I once perceived the world as I believe you now currently perceived it. I minimize them because although the alarm bells they ring resonates deep in all of us and trigger deep seated fears, including myself, their position has no empirical support and as such their instance that their concerns require broader community mindshare without basis; and as such are deservedly minimalised. Should an issue materialize where there is no reasonable, rational doubt that it is a real and significant problem, we may indeed find ourselves in a position we cannot do anything about it, but you can be personally assured that everyone around you, including myself, all 7 billion of us, will be thinking very very hard about the problem. Of course, to this I can always count on people with your mindset to point out - too little! too late! You need to starting thinking about these things now! This is what this meme demands of us in order for the meme to continue to thrive and propagate.

  32. What is the deal? by Charcharodon · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Why the obsession with alternate liquid fuels? Switch to methane and you kill five birds with one stone.

    1. The infrastructure to deliver it is already in place and is far less complicated than say what is needed for a hydrogen system.

    2. The conversion costs are small and will work with most vehicles. Pickup trucks being the easiest to convert. (Cool trucks, no gay hybrids required.)

    3. It's readily availabe just about everywhere. You can drill a hole in the ground to get it. You can make it with crop and animal waste on the farm. You can make it from sewage waste in the city. You can collect it as a by product from the petrolium industry. You could make your own fuel in your backyard if you were so inclined and had the space.

    4. It is environment friendly. No bad polutants when you burn it and can come from "carbon neutral" sources if you still buy into such things.

    5. We can make it in our own country and stop funding the overseas assholes. Let them try to eat their oil after we stop buying and see how far that gets them.

    Win, win, win, win, win.

  33. alcohol in engines by falconwolf · · Score: 2

    Ethanol is the worst thing you can put in a lawn mower, boat, or other motor that isn't run every day.

    No, ethanol is a bad thing to use as a fuel in an engine that is not designed to use it. Engines that are designed to use alcohol run good with it though.

    Falcon

  34. Ethanol is a maritime disaster by panopea · · Score: 4, Informative

    I work in the marine engine trade. (western U.S.) Ethanol has been a boon to the gasoline engine repair and maritime rescue business. It is estimated by marine trade originations that gasoline and ethanol mixed fuels currently cause about 70-85% of engine failures. Not really a type of additional work we want.These engines (and outboards) and fuel tanks were never designed for this fuel. Unlike modern autos, marine fuel tanks are vented and absorb moisture rich air. Water related corrosion adds to the alcohol damage. I do not think anyone has worked out just the cost in lives lost at sea, lost boats, and the damage to the marine trades has resulted from this fuel. We only get to work on the boats that made it back.

  35. Re:China by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 2

    Yet the median barely budges ... it's not the rich which create demand, it's the poor and middle class.

  36. My experience with methane (not so good) by HECMAN · · Score: 2

    I live in Argentina and we have a solid Compressed Natural Gas distribution infraestructure. Its a lot cheaper than gasoline and the conversions are relatively cheap especially on old cars.
    BUT, it has a lot of issues. You should go electric ( full, not hybrid) and skip methane.
    Heres why:

            1. Safety: We have had some nice explosions here until very strict safety measures and regulations where in place. You are driving around with a big steel cilinder at high pressure (200 Bar about 2900 psi ) in case of a fire there are safety valves and the tank should not explode, but it surely burns completely everithing near it. Not too different from gasoline now that I think of it. Stations will refuse to refill if you dont have all the certificates for the tank or tanks (they are risking their lives otherwise). This involves hydraulic tests every 5 years and if the tank doesnt pass its destroyed, cant be repaired.

            2. Weight: Only steel tanks are allowed. There are nice alumium reinforced with carbon fiber tanks, but these had caused many explosions. The fiber reinforcement breaks easiy with friction from the mounts or in a fire and they were banned many years ago.So, heavy steel tanks and heavy mounts for safety, these are less important in big pickups or trucks, but for small cars implies reinforced suspension.

            3. Autonomy: Its increasingly dangerous and technically difficult to use higher pressure than 200 Bar, so the tanks have limited capacity. Tipical ranges are around 120 Km ( 75 miles) for a small engine ( 2 liter or less ) and a big tank.

            4. Less power: Methane occupies more volume than vaporized gasoline, so the ideal mix in the engine gives less energy, some say about a 10 % less in my (subjective) experience seemed more than that.

            5.Engine stress: One way to offset the power loss is to change the engine computer settings, this can be used to get more HP from an engine running with gasoline, and I used to get more from the engine while running with methane. This increases temperature, leading to early engine failure, its especially hard on the exhaust valves.

          Some years ago I had a relatively long commute to work, so I bought a new car ( a Citroen Berlingo, a small van) and get to convert it to what was at the time state of the art in CNG. I had three small tanks for better autonomy ( about 200 km, 124 miles ) had to reinforce suspension, changed the engine settings for more power, and used an additional engine computer to regulate the methane mix ( there were cheaper conversions that use a kind of carburetor ). All this looked like a better deal than the same vehicle with a modern diesel engine, and the fuel was a lot cheaper. A year and half later, after two expensive engine repairs and 90000 km ( 56000 miles) , I had sold the car ( and the engine wasn't in great condition). The cost of the car+conversion+repairs+fuel was almost exactly the cost of the diesel version plus the fuel for that mileage. I had saved nothing economically and the car was heavy, with little autonomy and high maintenance.
        I think the best you can do with methane is to use it to generate electricity. Modern combined cycle generators are way more eficient than the internal combustion engines in cars, and this offset the distribution and battery losses.
        So please, skip the methane in cars, it's not worth the bother.

  37. Re:China by makomk · · Score: 2

    That's just the urban rich, though. The rural poor in China don't get to see a penny of that, and Chinese law prohibits them from migrating to the urban areas where they could actually make some money. What's more, they make up the vast majority of the population.

    In bad years, the Chinese government needs all its military might just to keep the rural areas from rising up in revolt.

  38. Chinese median income by falconwolf · · Score: 2

    Yet the median barely budges

    1. Official median income is HK$17,2 versus HK$35,000 by our sample data.
    2. China Income: Trends in Per Capita Levels: "In 1990, China’s average per capita national income was around $350. Within a decade, there was a threefold increase, taking the figure to $1,000. At the end of 2008, the figure tripled yet again and China’s average per capita national income reached another high of $3,000. If China’s average national income continues to rise at an annual rate of 8%, the country’s per capita income will reach $8,500 by 2020 and will touch the $20,000 mark by 2030. Hence, China’s average per capita income will exceed the current income of Taiwan and Korea and the country will qualify for an OECD membership."
    3. China's war on inequality: "Those with less education, however, such as migrant workers and farmers, have fared much worse. The former earn an annual salary (including fringe benefits!) totaling $2,000; the later may earn only half that. They comprise, in roughly equal parts, the low-income workers who account for up to 65-70 percent of the total workforce. Their average income has grown, but more slowly than the 8-10 percent annual GDP growth rate of the past 20 years."
    4. China's war on inequality - Comments and suggestions - People Forum: "Thirty years ago, 80% of China’s labor force was composed of farmers. But, while that figure is down now to about 30%, rural education has continued to suffer from inadequate funding and human capital relative to urban, industrializing regions."
    5. Why The China Property Bubble Doesn't Exist : "Said differently, that average Chinese couple has twice the real purchasing power their nominal income implies because their relative cost of living (including real estate) is lower. It is estimated that almost half of the average Beijing worker's income is actually purely disposable. When you adjust for this fact and that the Chinese couple can easily divert more income to real estate as they choose, because other expenses are lower, it makes Beijing's real estate relative to income seem much more affordable."

    it's not the rich which create demand, it's the poor and middle class.

    The rich do create demand, just not as much as the middle class and poor. However the rich create jobs which boosts income for the poor.

    I have provided links and data backing up what I said, now can you do the same? As they show the uneducated and rural population has had the lowest rise in income, but that population changed from 80% of the total population to 30%. More and more rural people leave the country er farms and move to cities where they get better paying jobs and more education. If you can prove I'm wrong then my mind can change.

    Falcon