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Geologists Say California May Be Next

Hugh Pickens writes "Newsweek reports that first there was a violent magnitude-8.8 event in Chile in 2010, then a horrifically destructive Pacific earthquake in New Zealand on February 22, and now the recent earthquake in Japan. Though there is still no hard scientific evidence to explain why, there is little doubt now that earthquakes do tend to occur in clusters: a significant event on one side of a major tectonic plate is often — not invariably, but often enough to be noticeable — followed some weeks or months later by another on the plate's far side. 'It is as though the earth becomes like a great brass bell, which when struck by an enormous hammer blow on one side sets to vibrating and ringing from all over. Now there have been catastrophic events at three corners of the Pacific Plate — one in the northwest, on Friday; one in the southwest, last month; one in the southeast, last year.' That leaves just one corner unaffected — the northeast. And the fault line in the northeast of the Pacific Plate is the San Andreas Fault. Although geologists believe a 9.0 quake is virtually impossible along the San Andreas, USGS studies put the probability of California being hit by a quake measuring 7.5 or more in the next 30 years at 46 percent, and the likelihood of a 6.7 quake, comparable in size to the temblors that rocked San Francisco in 1989 and Los Angeles in 1994, at 99 percent statewide."

258 comments

  1. Screw you ground. by jack2000 · · Score: 4, Funny

    Where are our floating cities, we've been promised floating cities and flying cars. I want my god damned flying car!

    1. Re:Screw you ground. by zlogic · · Score: 1

      Underwater eathquakes cause tsunamis.

    2. Re:Screw you ground. by Kokuyo · · Score: 2

      Seasickness right in your living room.

    3. Re:Screw you ground. by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      Tsunamis don't affect anything out at sea. In fact if your in deep waters, chances are you won't even notice it.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    4. Re:Screw you ground. by happylight · · Score: 1

      How would tsunamis affect a city floating in the air?

    5. Re:Screw you ground. by mangu · · Score: 1

      I want my god damned flying car!

      Ok, here it is.

    6. Re:Screw you ground. by Dunega · · Score: 2

      Depends on how high it is.

    7. Re:Screw you ground. by dead_user · · Score: 1

      OK, I want a goddamned flying car that DOESN'T collapse during test flights, killing all on board. ;8^)

    8. Re:Screw you ground. by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 3, Funny

      On the plus side, if a tsunami occurs, it results in an instant free upgrade of your regular car to a flying model.

      Also your house will be upgraded to floating parts-of-a-house.

    9. Re:Screw you ground. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That sounds like the latest version of Gnome.

    10. Re:Screw you ground. by RoFLKOPTr · · Score: 1

      Tsunamis aren't waves that travel across the ocean and destroy everything they travel under. It's a huge volume of water moving in a particular direction, usually present near the bottom of the ocean and unnoticeable at the top, and it only has the potential to do damage when said volume of water reaches land and flows a mile at high speed.

    11. Re:Screw you ground. by davester666 · · Score: 1

      Of course, Fox trotted out some 'expert' who basically announced that we can expect a 9.0 along the Pacific coast sometime this month, because we're due [300 years or something since the last big one], earthquakes happen around the 'ring of fire' in the Pacific and the other three zones have had earthquakes [so we're next!], and in the next couple weeks because the moon will be as close as it will be in the next couple of years.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    12. Re:Screw you ground. by MarkvW · · Score: 1

      Why that's sensational!

    13. Re:Screw you ground. by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      Where are our floating cities? We've been promised floating cities and flying cars.

      Underwater eathquakes cause tsunamis.

      Which cause floating cities and flying cars. There you go.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    14. Re:Screw you ground. by unholy1 · · Score: 1

      How high is a Chinaman?

    15. Re:Screw you ground. by rhalstead · · Score: 2

      I would think the Pacific North West would be more likely as it's a more dangerous megafault like the one off the coast of Japan, that would be likely to trigger a Tsunami in addition to a large quake. Plus it's over due according to records.

    16. Re:Screw you ground. by rhalstead · · Score: 2

      Yes a Tsunami is a wave as it travels across the ocean and is measured by sensors floating on the surface. The difference is that where the water is deep the volume is large so the height of the wave is quite low, from a few inches to a few feet. Even at a couple of feet it's likely to go unnoticed where the average waves are far larger than that. It also travels at high speed in deep water and slows drastically when reaching shallow water. As it slows the water behind the crest catches up building height. Although it's called a "wave" it would be more correct to think of it is the same terms as a storm surge. If you notice in the images it is more a wall of water and not a wave just rolling through as the water behind the leading edge is about as deep as the front. It gets deep and keeps getting deeper to the max. Then following waves come though for an hour or even hours. This thing was 33 feet high where it came ashore in Northern Japan and where funneled through inlets was probably quite a bit higher. This is what is expected in the Seattle area and could run several hundred miles North and South of that area. It would likely affect the entire area from the subduction zone (several hundred miles at sea) all the way to the mountains and from Norther California to Alaska. The San Andreas is a "Strike Slip" fault where the sides move laterally. The fault in the Pacific North West is a Subduction Zone and not part of the San Andreas.

    17. Re:Screw you ground. by mysidia · · Score: 1

      Underwater eathquakes cause tsunamis.

      But if the City's floating, and far from shallow depths, the tsunami travels under the city harmlessly.

      The harder problem is storms at sea, and extreme wave activity.

      During a storm, the water level at one portion of the city could spike to extreme height, while at the other side there's a 1000ft drop.

      In other words the "floating" city could become a sinking city really fast, unless it is completely sealed, and all the structures in it can survive all sorts of rocky motion and sometimes being flipped completely upside down.

      Or the city is so massive in size and internally so structurally sound no storm that ever really happens can compromise the flotation.

      Including drop off of water at random places under the middle of the city

    18. Re:Screw you ground. by mysidia · · Score: 1

      How would tsunamis affect a city floating in the air?

      Floating in the air, you have hurricanes and cosmic radiation to deal with.

      The higher you float, the greater the problem the radiation exposure is. The lower you float, the more likely a tsunami would be devastating

    19. Re:Screw you ground. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I laughed.

      Goddamnit, i'm an asshole >=(

    20. Re:Screw you ground. by bkpark · · Score: 1

      Tsunamis don't go up that high. All you have to do is float 100 meters or so to avoid a tsunami.

      And even if you float as high as 1 km, you won't be higher than most mountains.

    21. Re:Screw you ground. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tsunamis don't affect anything out at sea. In fact if your in deep waters, chances are you won't even notice it.

      This is true. A friend's husband was on a Marine transport when the earthquake occurred. When the wave came by - on the sea floor - the Marines could tell something had happened, but didn't see any visible signs. Of course, being cargo, they weren't informed before the fact, but were able to get the info from ship's crew after the event.

    22. Re:Screw you ground. by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      Yeah too bad it all pales compared to what MSNBC is doing to the fukushima "disaster". Man ... talk about "politics first, facts be damned !" reporting. I mean, Fox on fukushima is the most sane treatment of it in all of the US, with a huge margin.

      Just to be clear

      Now I'm sure that all of "liberal" America would be very glad indeed if -please- a few thousand more Japanese would die from uranium poisoning. *Pretty please*. Or, at least, that's the impression you get from just about every news outlet in the US.

  2. A broken clock... by Computer_kid · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...is right twice a day! If you keep saying it enough, and it inevitably happens, then you can claim that you "predicted" it.

    1. Re:A broken clock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, taking into account that in Chile we have a big one every 25 years (1960 was 9.5, 1985 was 8.0 and 2010 was 8.8). So, I can predict with 80% certainty that there will be an earthquake > 7.5 in Chile in the next 30 years.

    2. Re:A broken clock... by Rakshasa+Taisab · · Score: 2

      I can predict with 100% certainty that you can't read the difference between Chile and California.

      Also, lol at not understanding what the numbers actually mean and why they are useful. These earthquakes are caused by stress having been built up between tectonic plates, and the predictions give you an indication of how likely that stress is to be released at a certain magnitude. Your prediction of >7.5 with 80% likelihood the next 30 years is useless because it is an intentionally low-ball figure that doesn't give us any useful information abut the estimated stresses in the fault lines.

      --
      - These characters were randomly selected.
    3. Re:A broken clock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Geologists also say that tonight's going to be a good night, though they say the same thing every single time.

    4. Re:A broken clock... by WrongSizeGlass · · Score: 1

      Your prediction of >7.5 with 80% likelihood the next 30 years is useless because it is an intentionally low-ball figure that doesn't give us any useful information abut the estimated stresses in the fault lines.

      And yet predicting California is 'next' in line for a major quake is useless as well.
      1) California is always 'on the brink' of another major quake, just like Alaska, Japan and even Chile.
      2) Knowing that a major quake will happen 'some day in the somewhat near future' is worthless unless everyone in California is supposed to live each day as if it is the day of the big quake.
      3) California has known about the potential earthquakes for a long time and have integrated the possibilities into their building codes and other public policies. All they need to do now is wait for someone to be right about which prediction is closest to the actual day of the anticipated event.

    5. Re:A broken clock... by hedwards · · Score: 2

      By that logic, I guess we can tell the health inspectors to knock if off because all their predictions of food poisoning outbreaks are just a statistical probability.

      Seriously, people like you that suggest that these predictions aren't useful because the time frame is so long are a part of the problem. Had the Japanese heeded the warnings about nuclear reactors of that variety in an area that's subject to earthquakes, they wouldn't have spent the last week or working to avoid a major catastrophe.

      I'm sitting here in WA and we're still waiting for our mega quake, we know from the energy build up that it's going to be big, but we really don't know how big or when, but because of those predictions we've at least got our building code in order, so that hopefully we'll be in a much better position when the inevitable quake comes along.

    6. Re:A broken clock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Japanese aren't stupid. They knew the area was prone to earthquakes and they designed the plants to withstand earthquakes up to a magnitude they could reasonably expect. Nobody expected a 9.0 earthquake.

    7. Re:A broken clock... by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      The timing is tricky tho. The Tsunami risk was raised two years ago and didn't get traction.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    8. Re:A broken clock... by Peaceful_Patriot · · Score: 2

      A 9.0 quake could have been predicted on that type of fault. And is certainly possible in northern California. The San Andreas Fault gets lots of press because it is a clearly visible scar that runs the length of the state. It slips constantly, producing small quakes and occasionally, big ones. The lesser known danger is the Cascadia Fault, the same subduction type fault which is responsible for the recent massive quakes elsewhere in the world.

      The Cascadia Subduction Zone runs off the coast from Washington to northern California and was unknown until recently. It doesn't 'slip.' It locks for long periods and then releases with a massive quakes, producing tsunamis equivilent to what has just hit Japan. In fact, the date of the last quake on Cascadia is well known, 12/26/1700, due to the tsunami it produced being well documented in Japan. The videos we are seeing from there are a preview of what will happen in the Pacific Northwest and the clock is ticking.

      --
      There is nothing so powerful as an idea whose time has come.
    9. Re:A broken clock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Health inspectors have tests they can do that show things that actually relate to what they're looking for. What's the test that predicts an earthquake? Basically it's fault-finding, which shows where they might occur, and will eventually. There's not much more to do than that.

      This energy build-up in WA: where is it? How do we know it's there? What are scientists measuring that indicates this? Or is it just common sense that if there are faults and active volcanoes nearby, and there hasn't been a (big) quake in a while, there must be a big one "winding up"? Keep saying that long enough, and it'll come true just like the broken clock complaint above...

    10. Re:A broken clock... by 517714 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Magnitude 9.3, between 9 and 10 PM PST to be precise. The only problem with this evidence is that it didn't exist at the time the Japanese were making their design decisions. The man who put the date on the event said, "There was plenty of respectable scientific opinion at the time that an earthquake of a magnitude-9 was just ludicrous. A tsunami modeler in the late 1980s could not have assumed an earthquake of that magnitude without being called an alarmist or being laughed at." All in the citation.

      So, no, they could not have predicted a 9.0 quake.

      --
      The US government have made it clear that we have no inalienable rights; any we do not defend vigorously will be taken.
    11. Re:A broken clock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      May 13th 2011 between 9AM and 3PM PDT. You laugh now, but just wait and see.

    12. Re:A broken clock... by Pieroxy · · Score: 1

      Geologists also say that tonight's going to be a good night, though they say the same thing every single time.

      That's not geologists, that's the Black Eyed Peas !!!

    13. Re:A broken clock... by isorox · · Score: 1

      May 13th 2011 between 9AM and 3PM PDT. You laugh now, but just wait and see.

      You know, you may joke, however sometimes these things have a way of being right.

    14. Re:A broken clock... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      Okay but what can Californians learn now from Chile, New Zealand and Japan? Is it even possible for everybody under the 100 metre contour to get above that contour in (say) five minutes? Has anybody tried?

      Additionally the list of recent quakes covers the south east, south and north of the pacific ring of fire. Thats a fairly rapid sequence of very big quakes. I know that if one part of a structure shifts, then other parts will shift in sequence. Is the pacific basin a structure in that sense? Seismologists would probably claim not to know.

    15. Re:A broken clock... by Hellsbells · · Score: 1

      Remember that the 8.9 magnitude quake struck 100km from the reactors, so the intensity of the quake would have been a lot less at the reactors than at the epicentre.

      There were 34 earthquakes recorded of magnitudes ranging from 8.0 to 9.5 in the 20th century (three stronger than the recent one).
      Do you think that the reactor could have withstood a direct hit from any one of these 34 quakes?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_20th-century_earthquakes

    16. Re:A broken clock... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There's going to be a major quake in Portland, Oregon this month - be ready for it.

  3. Time to fire-up your laptop, then by kanweg · · Score: 1

    Your laptop can be used to detect earthquakes:
    http://www.wired.com/science/planetearth/news/2008/03/quake_network

    Join the Quake Catcher network
    http://qcn.ucr.edu/

    Bert

    1. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by isorox · · Score: 4, Funny

      Your laptop can be used to detect earthquakes

      Yes, if it falls off the table, it's probably an earthquake.

    2. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by mortonda · · Score: 1

      Your laptop can be used to detect earthquakes

      Yes, if it falls off the table, it's probably an earthquake.

      No, it's probably one of my children running by carelessly.

    3. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by kanweg · · Score: 1

      I wasn't talking about *causing* an 8.7 earthquake with a 2" thick Dell laptop.

      Bert
      You wouldn't believe it, but the scientists involved have a work-around for the occasional bump-problem.

    4. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      Your laptop can be used to detect earthquakes...

      Down in the Ozarks they had a weather device for sale that determined the weather. It was a rock hanging from string. If it was swaying, it was windy. If it was wet, it was raining. If it was gone, tornado.

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    5. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by microbee · · Score: 1

      So, earthquakes are caused by irresponsible parenting? God damn you parents!

    6. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by Kilrah_il · · Score: 1

      Won't somebody think of the children!

      --
      Whenever in an argument, remember this.
    7. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by Kilrah_il · · Score: 1

      Whooosh!

      --
      Whenever in an argument, remember this.
    8. Re:Time to fire-up your laptop, then by SScorpio · · Score: 1

      I've heard farmers in the US midwest do the same thing with cow tails. You also get the dual use of it being able to detect alien encounters.

  4. 9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by CrackedButter · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The link doesn't explain why the San Andreas fault can't have a 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Can anybody please explain what makes this fault line so special or immune to such devastation? I'm of the belief anything is possible. Especially when I have my Snake Plissken eye patch ready for some over the top action sequences.

    1. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Dolphinzilla · · Score: 3, Funny

      I've heard of you, I heard you were dead....

    2. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by C_amiga_fan · · Score: 3, Informative

      >>>The link doesn't explain why the San Andreas fault can't have a 9.0 magnitude earthquake

      Quote: "Geologists believe a 9.0 quake is virtually impossible along the San Andreas, a network of "strike-slip" faults smaller and more fragmented, than the great chasm that exists where two continent-sized plates of the Earth's crust meet along the Japanese islands."

      "This subduction zone beneath the Pacific, where one tectonic plate is thrust up over another, is capable of producing the biggest quakes on Earth, on an order of magnitude higher than any recorded in California."

      --
      FREE magazine : http://clarkesworldmagazine.com/prior/
    3. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Geologists believe a 9.0 quake is virtually impossible along the San Andreas, a network of "strike-slip" faults smaller and more fragmented than the great chasm that exists where two continent-sized plates of the Earth's crust meet along the Japanese islands.

      This subduction zone beneath the Pacific, where one tectonic plate is thrust up over another, is capable of producing the biggest quakes on Earth, on an order of magnitude higher than any recorded in California.

      Offshore quakes generated from subduction zones, also found along Alaska's Aleutian Islands chain, can produce tsunamis because of the tremendous volume of water they suddenly displace on the sea floor.

      The horizontal ruptures of California's seismic faults, even those offshore, displace little or no water, and thus pose no tsunami threat, except in cases when they trigger underwater landslides. Even those tsunamis, however, are small compared with the ones caused by subduction quakes at sea.

      From the linked article.

    4. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by heehau · · Score: 5, Informative

      The San Andreas fault is a strike-slip fault, which means that at its location two tectonic plates rub against each other. That's fairly benign compared to the amounts of energy accumulating at a subduction zone (like in Japan), where one plate has to dive under another.

    5. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by whathappenedtomonday · · Score: 4, Interesting

      > That's fairly benign compared to the amounts of energy accumulating
      > at a subduction zone (like in Japan)

      ...or in the Pacific Northwest? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cascade_Range_related_plate_tectonics-en.svg

      --
      I hope I didn't brain my damage.
    6. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes. There's a subduction plate boundary there. Along that boundary there is a potential for a M8+ earthquake, perhaps approaching 9. But the frequency of occurrence is very low -- centuries between events. That doesn't mean it can't happen, of course. The last time was in 1700, and the effects of a similar earthquake would probably be on par with the recent one in Japan. Hmmm... maybe worse, because the infrastructure and emergency systems probably aren't as well prepared for such a large quake as Japan is.

    7. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by whiteboy86 · · Score: 1

      A bit way north is quietly rumbling "Cascadia Subduction Zone" (similar to that one of Japan) that might produce massive quake of magnitude 9 or higher with tsunami of approximately 30 meters (100 ft), but that is more of a Canucks' problem.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone

    8. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by hailstop · · Score: 1

      A bit way north is quietly rumbling "Cascadia Subduction Zone" (similar to that one of Japan) that might produce massive quake of magnitude 9 or higher with tsunami of approximately 30 meters (100 ft), but that is more of a Canucks' problem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone

      If by 'Canucks' you're starting to include people in Washington, Oregon and northern California, then yes.

    9. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by hedwards · · Score: 3, Informative

      Actually, we've been expecting a magnitude 8+ for the last 30 years, and probably more, I can recall the last 25 of those years. At this point it's likely approaching a 9. We've only had a magnitude 5.3 and a 6.8 in the last 15 years or so on top of the regular minor earthquakes. So, we are very much aware that we're due for one.

      OTOH, our mayor McJackass seems more concerned with killing our tunnel than with replacing the viaduct that we've known will go down in an earthquake ever since the Loma Prieta quake did the same thing to 880.

    10. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Geheimagent · · Score: 1

      St. Andreas is not the only possible area of a quake. In the Washington area there is more tension building up:
      http://www.physorg.com/news169653448.html

    11. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      That's true, but don't let that fool you into thinking California will only have weak earthquakes. It's worth remembering that the 1906 Earthquake was an 8.3, which is not 'small' by anyone's measurement.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    12. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Drache+Kubisuro · · Score: 1

      The magnitude of earthquakes is a function of cross sectional area, average slip, and shear modulus of crust. Strike slip fault earthquakes rupture very near the surface. We can have a few hundred kilometers worth of rupture, but for some reason ruptures never happen along the entire length of the San Andreas but small portions of it (we've seen ~300 miles with the 1906 EQ). So there are limits to how large an earthquake can be on the San Andreas mostly because of limits to rupture lengths and the shallow depths of earthquake epicenters. If you were to rupture the entire southern San Andreas fault, you could get up to ~8.5. But that is may be unlikely. Crust in California is not homogeneous. Some parts of the crust can take way more stress than others. Some parts are constantly moving, preventing massive build ups of stress (e.g., around Parkfield), which may prevent a serious rupture in the area.

      --
      -Drache Kubisuro
    13. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If Tokyo Bay was protected from this tsunami, it seems unlikely that a Cascadia tsunami would reach arounds corners to Seattle, Tacoma or Portland. There are still lots of small towns on the Pacific up and down the coast but nothing like that area of Japan. I'm not discounting the loss of life that would occur, but it would probably not be a national disaster to the US like we're seeing now for Japan.

    14. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Both the 2010 7.1 and the 2011 6.3 earthquakes in New Zealand were strike-slip, I'm sure the people of Christchurch would not call it benign.

    15. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by node+3 · · Score: 1

      For context, the tsunami in Japan was 10 meters. The tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone is estimated to be about 30 meters.

    16. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      The Japanese tsunami hit Christchurch by reflecting off Antarctica.

    17. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      Oh, have WA and OR already joined Canada? I must have missed that somehow.

    18. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... but that is more of a Canucks' problem.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone

      I didn't know that Oregon and Washington states are in Canada.

    19. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by HappyEngineer · · Score: 1

      It's not small, but it's 1/5 the size of a 9.0 earthquake (10^9 / 10^8.3).

    20. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The link doesn't explain why the San Andreas fault can't have a 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Can anybody please explain what makes this fault line so special or immune to such devastation? I'm of the belief anything is possible. Especially when I have my Snake Plissken eye patch ready for some over the top action sequences.

      Because it's a strike-slip fault that moves horizontally, not a subduction fault. Also, it has frequent quakes along its length, rather then building up strain for a long period.

    21. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Oregon is not particularly well prepared. There are tsunami warning sirens in most of the cities and they are making tsunami danger zone maps but they are not complete. There are signs on the coast highway waring about tsunami danger areas. Anything built more than about 20 years ago probably won't stand up very well to the big one when it comes unless its been upgraded. We're working on upgrades but not very fast.

      Based on past frequencies the Cascadia Subduction Zone quake could come any time in the next 200 or 300 years. If this theory that we're getting a cluster of earthquakes now and the Sumatra to Chile to Japan pattern continues then the Cascadia fault is then next in line.

      The Cascadia and San Andreas faults are tied to each other where they meet off Northern California and a major quake on the Cascadia fault will probably lead to some large quakes on the San Andreas complex of faults.

    22. Re:9.0 magnitude earthquake Unpossible? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Yes, an 8.3 is in the category of Great quakes but the 9.0 the Cascadia fault is likely to have is like 8 times as powerful.

  5. will we survive without walmart, fake weather etc? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    yes.

  6. A little difference by JavaBear · · Score: 1

    At least the San Andreas fault line runs inland, so the likelihood of getting the double whammy like the one that hit Japan is fairly remote.

    1. Re:A little difference by madpansy · · Score: 1

      Although not LA itself, the Port of Los Angeles/Port of Long Beach could potentially experience a locally generated tsunami. There is a fault line under Catalina Island off the coast of San Pedro, and a quake of magnitude 7.5 can cause landslides large enough to generate a tsunami to affect the two ports. This, however, has not happened in recorded times and is thought to be an extremely rare event. Also, the report I read indicated not all areas of the port would be overtopped by this hypothetical tsunami.

      (PDF File) From the Port of LA tsunami report:

      Large earthquakes (M~7.5) are very infrequent and have not occurred in the off shore area of California within historical times. Furthermore, not every large earthquake is expected to generate a tsunami based on historical occurrencesof tsunamis and seismic activity throughout the world. Based on the seismicity,geodetics, and geology, a large locally generated tsunami from either local seismic activity or a local submarine landslide would likely not occur more than once every 10,000 years

  7. Yellowstone by eyenot · · Score: 2

    I would think the Yellowstone caldera is a more frightening prospect and more worth mentioning than the San Andreas. They both seem to me to be pretty much closely connected and one is likely to set off the other. But it never gets mentioned, probably because the prospect of the western half of the United States going through a Krakatoa-like event is rather harrowing and would drive people away from the Northwest (which for those people wouldn't be a bad idea).

    --
    "Stratigraphically the origin of agriculture and thermonuclear destruction will appear essentially simultaneous" -- Lee
    1. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They both seem to me to be pretty much closely connected and one is likely to set off the other.

      San Andreas produces a big quake about once a century. Yellowstone blows on geological time scales (the last was 640,000 years ago). Really, they aren't connected.

    2. Re:Yellowstone by cpu6502 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      >>>both seem to me to be pretty much closely connected

      First Yellowstone is a VOLCANO not an earthquake. It doesn't have any connection to the Japanese or California tragedies. Second, it has been mentioned multiple times on cable channels like National Geographic, Discovery, and History.

      Third, it only happens once every tens-of-thousands of years. Last time it happened, Mammoths were still the dominant species in america. (Man had not yet arrived.) Fourth it makes little sense to discuss an event that is predicted to happen circa 10,000 or 20,000 A.D. By that point human beings might have self-exterminated or developed forcefields to contain the blast.

      And (babylon) Five..... if it did happen tomorrow, there's nothing you could do to prepare for it (like moving away). Yellowstone blowing-up would basically exterminate everyone in the US/Canada, unless you were lucky enough to live upwind of the event, like British Columbia, Yukon, or Alaska. Therefore no reason for government to "prepare" for something that cannot be escaped. Even if you lived in Europe, you can expect a "year without a summer" like happened when Krakatoa blew up & dimmed the sun.

      Yellowstone Supervolcano is one of those events, like an asteroid strike, which really cannot be avoided, or prepared for. It has global impact.

      --
      My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
    3. Re:Yellowstone by Dunega · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This week's scaremongering by the media is brought to you by earthquakes. They did volcanos about a year ago.

    4. Re:Yellowstone by Golddess · · Score: 1

      >>>both seem to me to be pretty much closely connected

      First Yellowstone is a VOLCANO not an earthquake. It doesn't have any connection to the Japanese or California tragedies.

      That sure is some nice selective quoting you've got there. Would be a shame if something were to happen to it... :P

      both seem to me to be pretty much closely connected and one is likely to set off the other.

      Now I'm not saying an earthquake is capable of setting off a volcano, but your apparent avoidance of why GP thinks of San Andreas and Yellowstone as "pretty much closely connected" makes me question your motivations for posting in the first place.

      --
      "I'm not sure I like the fugnutish tone you used in your post!" -RogL (608926)-
    5. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why so many accounts Commodore64Love? Why do you cower? You are totally pathetic.

    6. Re:Yellowstone by khallow · · Score: 1

      I was in New Mexico when the Loma Prieta quake hit south of San Francisco. I recall watching the quake on the news. I don't recall digging trenches through meters of ashfall, which I think I would remember. So maybe Yellowstone caldera and the San Andreas fault don't have a particularly tight coupling. In fact, I glanced at the large quakes for the US, and there's no dicernable connection at all between large earthquakes in the two regions.

    7. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Commodore64Love, soon you will use 10 accounts on single article. Pathetic.

    8. Re:Yellowstone by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      First Yellowstone is a VOLCANO not an earthquake. It doesn't have any connection to the Japanese or California tragedies.

      No connection except the earth, you mean, multi-account troll-boy.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    9. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      First, it is not a VOLCANO. It is a SUPER-VOLCANO.
      Third, it does not "happens once every tens-of-thousands". It is in the hundreds of thousands (roughly 650,000 years).
      Fourth, if it doesn't make sense to discuss it, why discuss it? Because learning about both the past and the future have current applications, plus it it fun.
      Fifth, you are incorrect. You can prepare for it. In fact, there are already people living in abandoned missile silos with sufficient food and air filtering to survive for about half a decade. Not many will choose to alter their way of life based on those probabilities, but some will. If they make it, their genetic patterns are the winner.

      I've already proven mine superior to many by avoiding living directly on top of a faultline, directly on a low-level shoreline, next to major industrial facility, and by moving regularly and having a half-dozen children.

    10. Re:Yellowstone by gstoddart · · Score: 1

      And, if that dies down, there's always the ever-popular terrorism to scare the children.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    11. Re:Yellowstone by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      Why so many accounts Commodore64Love? Why do you cower? You are totally pathetic.

      Hi Tim!

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

    12. Re:Yellowstone by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Your chances of getting a super-volcano prediction correct in any given century are much greater if you predict 'no' than 'yes.' There's no reason to think it will erupt with this. It didn't last time.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    13. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe he's trying to show that a c64 can support hyperthreading.

    14. Re:Yellowstone by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

      ...on cable channels like National Geographic, Discovery, and History

      Now known as SyFy 2.

    15. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fourth it makes little sense to discuss an event that is predicted to happen circa 10,000 or 20,000 A.D. By that point human beings might have self-exterminated or developed forcefields to contain the blast.

      Given that Yellowstone is not likely to be a problem for some time, isn't there something more direct that could be done there to reduce or prevent the damage? For instance, could the area be drilled to relieve the pressure, to prevent an eruption in the first place, and perhaps cause it to grow a big mountain instead of erupting in a giant, destructive blast?

    16. Re:Yellowstone by endymion.nz · · Score: 1

      To six different partners, or are you gambling the survival of your genes on the efficacy of your partner's?

      --
      mediocrity rules, man
    17. Re:Yellowstone by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      it makes little sense to discuss an event that is predicted to happen circa 10,000 or 20,000 A.D. By that point human beings might have self-exterminated or developed forcefields to contain the blast.

      Designers of the nuclear plants currently melting down in Japan would probably have been surprised in 1970 that people in 2011 don't have better ways of dealing with the disaster than trying to drop water from helicopters. What about the robots and flying cars?

    18. Re:Yellowstone by rhalstead · · Score: 1

      The Yellowstone "super volcano" is an isolated "hot spot" or magma chamber that is slowly moving to the NE. It is not related to any fault zones such as the San Andreas or subduction zones. Movement of the magma does cause earthquakes due to areas either sinking or rising.

    19. Re:Yellowstone by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Comparing Krakatoa to the Yellowstone super-volcano is like comparing a magnitude 4 earthquake to a magnitude 9. Krakatoa ejected about 21 cubic kilometers of material, the Yellowstone eruption about 640,000 years ago ejected around 1,000 cubic kilometers.

      The San Andrea fault is more likely to affect the Long Valley Caldera> near Bishop, CA than it is Yellowstone.

    20. Re:Yellowstone by Golddess · · Score: 1

      Like I said, I'm not saying it's capable of it. I just despise selective quoting.

      --
      "I'm not sure I like the fugnutish tone you used in your post!" -RogL (608926)-
    21. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Now I'm not saying an earthquake is capable of setting off a volcano, but your apparent avoidance of why GP thinks of San Andreas and Yellowstone as "pretty much closely connected" makes me question your motivations for posting in the first place.

      Well, let's examine the WHY then:

      They both seem to me to be pretty much closely connected and one is likely to set off the other.

      Perhaps the reason he "avoided" the WHY is because it was never given.

    22. Re:Yellowstone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perhaps the reason he "avoided" the WHY is because it was never given.

      Yes, it was. "and one is likely to set off the other."

      Oh, but he didn't say why one is likely to set off the other? What does that have to do with your attempt to make it appear as if eyenot doesn't know the difference between a volcano and an earthquake?

  8. What about New Nadrid by kurt555gs · · Score: 1

    The New Madrid fault (along the Mississippi River) is about to pop. It has a history of extremely violent earthquakes. None of the structures built near it were designed with tremors in mind. Ill bet there are Nuke plants along it.

    --
    * Carthago Delenda Est *
    1. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From what I have heard, the real problem for the nuke plants in Japan was the tsunami, not the earthquake itself.

    2. Re:What about New Nadrid by confused+one · · Score: 3, Informative

      And the nuclear plants will be fine. If you check, there were 4 power plants, each with multiple reactors, near the site of the Japanese 9.0 quake. All of those reactors shut down normally and survived the earthquake.

      Only one of those sites is having any trouble -- and it is only because an 8m tall wall of water topped their tsunami protection wall (it was designed to stop a 6m tsunami). The water knocked out their connection to the power grid, flooded their backup generators AND the backup backup generators. It also damaged many of the electrically driven pumps. Fukushima Dai-ichi is a rare case where, due to an essentially unforeseeable event, a single cause destroyed the primary power connection, primary cooling pumps and all of the backup systems simultaneously.

      You can be sure that once the situation in northern Japan is stabilized, changes will be made. Now that they know an 8m tsunami is possible they will upgrade all of the tsunami barriers over the next decade or two.

    3. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You can be sure that once the situation in northern Japan is stabilized, changes will be made. Now that they know an 8m tsunami is possible they will upgrade all of the tsunami barriers over the next decade or two.

      Why can I be sure? This region has been hit by 10m tsunamis before.

    4. Re:What about New Nadrid by Lehk228 · · Score: 1

      i have heard some speculation from people who know a lot more about nuke plants than i do that the facilities took more damage from the quake itself then is being told, cooling should have been restored by now if the problem was powering the pumps or even getting a new pump in place, they were saying pipes may have broken either directly from the shaking or from pressure surges, rendering parts of the cooling system unrecoverable without rebuilding.

      --
      Snowden and Manning are heroes.
    5. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Fukushima Dai-ichi is a rare case where, due to an essentially unforeseeable event..."

      "Now that they know an 8m tsunami is possible they will upgrade all of the tsunami barriers over the next decade or two."

      "Now that they know"?? "Unforeseeable"? Tsunami of similar magnitude of the recent event have occurred along that coastline before. The best-known but not the only event is the AD869 tsunami. They aren't some hypothetical and surprising possibility. The people that built the plant apparently thought "6m aught to be enough" -- which is ridiculous given the scale of actual historical events here and the 50-year operational time for the plant. They prepared inadequately for the *known* hazards. Period. The only conceivable excuse would be that events this big are rare, but to say they are not known here is WRONG.

    6. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tsunami is a Japanese word. They knew it was possible. They knew they were vulnerable. They knew the cost of the wall in meters and made a judgement call based on Yen/meter^3. They will do the same thing again if allowed.

    7. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The have been reports that batteries powered the pomps for 8 hours after the tsunamis. Then batteries ran out. If that's the case, then pumps did not suffer huge damage due to the tsunami.

    8. Re:What about New Nadrid by blue+trane · · Score: 2

      They should have put more of a debt burden on their grandchildren who would at least be around to pay it or see it forgiven.

    9. Re:What about New Nadrid by drinkypoo · · Score: 0

      You can be sure that once the situation in northern Japan is stabilized, changes will be made. Now that they know an 8m tsunami is possible they will upgrade all of the tsunami barriers over the next decade or two.

      Yes, they will plan for a 10m tsunami and get wiped out by a 12m tsunami caused by two simultaneous quakes or something. When will you accept that putting backup generators on-site is unacceptable?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    10. Re:What about New Nadrid by maxume · · Score: 1

      That's a terrible way to phrase it. Having backup power on sense makes a great deal of sense.

      The key is making sure that there is a good response in place if those systems fail.

      (and It seems making the backup generators submersion resistant is probably a good idea to explore, rather than ever higher walls)

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    11. Re:What about New Nadrid by drinkypoo · · Score: 0

      That's a terrible way to phrase it. Having backup power on sense makes a great deal of sense.

      All [sic]ing aside, no, it makes no sense whatsoever. The backup generators are supposed to be the backup. If you are worried about Tsunamis which are overwhelmingly likely to take out the backups if they take out the primaries then you have to be a complete fucking idiot to put the backups right next to the primaries. When you are discussing an event like a Tsunami, in the same city is "right next to". If the backup systems are necessary to the maintenance of the system then they must be located at a distance which will preserve them from an event which damages the primary system. This is not rocket science, although I imagine rocket scientists have to follow the same principle. What good is a backup that will necessarily be wiped out by the same event that wipes out the primary? Any systems administrator should be able to comprehend this simple concept.

      (and It seems making the backup generators submersion resistant is probably a good idea to explore, rather than ever higher walls)

      The problem then is what happens if it's a more direct seismic event? You want them at a distance. You're going to need underground cables with a high level of redundancy in the case that one link is severed. The real failure here is for such a minuscule nation to not have a national power grid. It's pathetic enough that we don't have one here in the USA where we have multiples of the land area to consider. It makes me wonder if, like us, they have been earmarking funds for infrastructure projects and then spending them on executive bonuses. That is very much the story of the USA's power and communications infrastructure. I would be shocked and amazed if it was not the same story over there.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    12. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's ALWAYS something unforseeable or unusual that likely won't happen elsewhere. Yet elsewhere something ELSE completely unforeseeable and unsual happens. Saying "we're safe from tsunamis, nothing will happen" is like the TSA focusing on past terror attempts: always focusing on what already happened.

      Chernobyl was a freak accident due to an old design, won't happen again. Three Mile Island was a freak accident, which won't happen again. Fukushima was a freak accident that won't happen again. So on and so on. There will always be a new kind of freak accident that catches operators by surprise.

    13. Re:What about New Nadrid by burisch_research · · Score: 1

      So they should build the reactors like a submarine -- spot a tsunami coming, close the hatches. When the waters subside sufficiently, you can open up exhaust ports and inlet ports and whatnot, so you can run the backup generators. Seems to me to be the obvious solution.

      --
      char*f="char*f=%c%s%c;main(){printf(f,34,f,34);}";main(){printf(f,34,f,34);}
    14. Re:What about New Nadrid by AHuxley · · Score: 1

      A interesting RFI for Pre-Packaged Commercial Meals mentioned the New Madrid Fault System
      https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=eaea338540a0aea155a48a650a077352&tab=core&_cview=0 (Jan 20, 2011)
      "...FEMA request for Information is to identify sources of supply for meals in support of disaster relief efforts based on a catastrophic disaster event within the New Madrid Fault System for a survivor population of 7M...."
      36 months of remaining shelf life upon delivery.
      http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/11/20/us-earthquake-study-idUSTRE4AJ9EV20081120 from 2008
      would cause "the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the United States."
      New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Earthquake Response Planning Project (Statistics for Eight-State Region on page 28)
      https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/14810/Volume%20II_Part%201.pdf

      --
      Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
    15. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      a tsunami on japanese coast was not unforeseeable. Remember where the tsunami word comes from !

      What would happen in case of earthquake followed by tsunami at Diablo Canoyon or San Isidro ?
      Are the refreshment systems protected from a big wave ?

    16. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I used to live in Tennessee, right next to the Mississippi, and I can tell you all from experience that there are no nuclear power plants anywhere near that region. The vast majority of people there are still pretty committed to burning nothing but the oil Great Bush II has bestowed upon us from those filthy infidels in the middle east (this is actually an honest opinion of someone in the region, though admittedly not a common one).

      No need to worry about nuke plants blowing up, just a bunch of inbred rednecks no longer perpetuating their abhorrent genes on us anymore!

    17. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This happened in ~1999 in Houston to the Texas Medical Center (largest medical center in the world...). A tropical storm parked half over the city, half over land and proceeded to dump feet of water over the course of a few days/week (shortly after another storm). The flooding broke through foot+ thick reinforced concrete walls and "mostly flood-proof" doors in underground tunnels and parking garages, taking out several floors of a dozen hospitals, all the power connections, the backup generators, the backup backup generators, the MRI machines, the morgues, everything. They landed military choppers in the streets while we hand carried people on stretchers down stairs with flashlights.

      My point being: it's not totally unforeseeable. If you're building near water, or near an area that is drainage for another area, or an area that just has poor drainage, you're going to flood. Putting all the backup backups underground or even right at ground level and not making them, say, sealed until you run in and open them to start them, is just not going to end well.

      And if you live in a house, emergency supplies in the basement *and* the attic. Just watch a video of poor souls sitting on a rooftop in a river and you'll know why...

    18. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You probably didn't spend much time thinking about the situation: there is already external backup power provided by the normal power grid. So this is our situation:

      On site backup power
      1)Earthquake hits
      2)Nuclear reactors (primary power) shuts down automatically
      3)Backup power (diesel generators) start to power the cooling pumps
      4) Tsunami hits
      A) if one of the power line or the backup generator survive, we are fine.

      Out of site backup power
      1)Earthquake hits
      2)Nuclear reactors(primary power) shuts down automatically
      3)Backup power (diesel generators) start to power the cooling pumps
      4) Tsunami hits
      A) if either the power line is destroyed then the off-site generator is useless.

      On site and out of site backup power:
      Same as with on site backup power, the off-site generator has the same failure point as the exterior power grid: the power line that goes to the central.

      If you add more redundancy to the offsite backup power, why not remove the off site backup power and connect the new cable to the power grid ?

    19. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Will they bother? I thought once they start flooding the reactor with seawater, any hope of salvaging the reactor is gone. Seal the place up and rebuild (with a newer design) elsewhere.

    20. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      So the electric switchboards and generators being under water can't be the root cause for current problems?

      Tbh you should stop listening to all the trash you hear.

    21. Re:What about New Nadrid by Pinky's+Brain · · Score: 0

      Even without the Tsunami a crack in the storage pool could have quickly saturated the building with radiation beyond the point where people could work there ... which would have caused the exact same problem they are facing now (how to cool down the spent fuel if you can't get close and all your water just goes down the crack).

    22. Re:What about New Nadrid by mikael · · Score: 1

      And a 20m tsunamis wall didn't stop the water either. If you've got a wave 2000m long and 1m high, then all that water is just going to build up until it does go over the wall. The only other solution seems to be to build everything on stilts or build tsunamis channels that direct the water upwards and inland much like the opposite of a storm drain or storm channel.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    23. Re:What about New Nadrid by maxume · · Score: 2

      I thought the "last mile" to the grid was the problem, not the power available on the local grid (grid power is the first supply in an emergency).

      I don't think they have run hundreds of miles of new cable in a week, just new local infrastructure.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    24. Re:What about New Nadrid by 517714 · · Score: 1

      Nuclear power plants in the US are designed to withstand the anticipated ground motions. This link http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread674273/pg1 points out the presumed issue, but read the responses. So here's a ridiculously alarmist link for those who lean that direction: http://www.sott.net/articles/show/225939-15-Nuclear-Reactors-on-New-Madrid-Fault-Line

      --
      The US government have made it clear that we have no inalienable rights; any we do not defend vigorously will be taken.
    25. Re:What about New Nadrid by 517714 · · Score: 1

      So well known that Wikipedia has had an article on it for almost a week!

      --
      The US government have made it clear that we have no inalienable rights; any we do not defend vigorously will be taken.
    26. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I find it more worrying that the problems with Fukushima were due to an 'un-forseeable event' quite frankly because it's much harder to guard against un-forseeable events than ones that are predictable (e.g. earthquakes in Japan). I'm kind of dubious about the idea that the only thing that's stopping nuclear power being completely safe is a slightly higher wall.

    27. Re:What about New Nadrid by 517714 · · Score: 1

      obvious or oblivious?

      --
      The US government have made it clear that we have no inalienable rights; any we do not defend vigorously will be taken.
    28. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >>Fukushima Dai-ichi is a rare case where, due to an essentially unforeseeable event, a single cause destroyed the primary power connection, primary cooling pumps and all of the backup systems simultaneously

      How was an 8m tall wall of water unforeseeable? Haven't we figured out yet that nature will always trump the seawalls we try to erect to contain it? Putting the power plant right at the coast and the backup generators at sea level is the fatal mistake here.

    29. Re:What about New Nadrid by 1u3hr · · Score: 1

      then you have to be a complete fucking idiot to put the backups right next to the primaries.

      No use having backup power safely at a remote site when the grid is broken. There is plenty enough electricity in Japan to run the reactor coolant system. But getting it to the plant was the problem - I think just reconnected today.

    30. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I live directly on top of that fault. The nearest nuclear plant is in Columbia, MO., which is a few hundred miles away and is under considerably less seismic risk (and built on studier soil) than both St. Louis and Memphis (which would be 60% destroyed by an 8.0)

    31. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Essentially unforeseeable? I'm sorry but that's just bollocks. Now I know safety standards when this plant was built in the 1970s were quite different from what they are today, but a big tsunami cannot have been unforeseeable.

      In English and many other languages, tsunami is a word taken from Japanese for a reason - they occur relatively frequently in the region. Nothing unforeseeable there. And as to the height of the waves: there have been records of tsunamis 20-30 meters high in Japan and elsewhere in the world. It should not have come as a surprise a 6m defense might be insufficient.

    32. Re:What about New Nadrid by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      These walls aren't designed to contain all the water but to absorb a large portion of the energy of the wave. There was a region south of Fukushima which demonstrated this perfectly with video footage, but I can't for the life of me remember the name. Basically towns around it were completely obliterated, yet this town despite the wave coming over the 5m tsunami wall only had major damage in the first 2 rows of houses, and further inland from these only minor flooding related damage was evident.

      Building something to completely stop any scenario is a losing proposition that tends to cause bankruptcies followed by i-told-you-so from doomsayers. However most of the risk can be eliminated with minimal design. Something as simple as putting the diesel backups somewhere else would likely have avoided the entire Fukushima Dai-ichi incident.

    33. Re:What about New Nadrid by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      No use having backup power safely at a remote site when the grid is broken. There is plenty enough electricity in Japan to run the reactor coolant system. But getting it to the plant was the problem - I think just reconnected today.

      way to be obtuse; the plant has its own backup generators which are useless when they are on-site. The issue of not having a useful grid is a separate issue, and yes, if there were a useful grid then they might as well just skip the backups onsite, because if the site is wiped out, so will they be.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    34. Re:What about New Nadrid by 1u3hr · · Score: 1

      the plant has its own backup generators which are useless when they are on-site.

      And ones off site are useless if the connection to the plant is broken.

      way to be obtuse

      And a big fuck you to you.

    35. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What happens if the power line gets destroyed and you don't have on site backup ? Off-site backup and power grid have the same failure point: the power line going to the site. On site backup and power grid don't. You're completely incompetent in this matter. Stop hitting the reply button and spend some time thinking about the problem. The solutions could be:
      --protect the onsite backup power
      --have more battery power (8 hours of autonomy is not much)
      --have mobile generators offsite that can be brought on site if needs be.
      --have a passive cooling system for the reactor that can at least handle the decay heat.

      Putting the on site backup offsite would actually make things worse.

    36. Re:What about New Nadrid by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      And ones off site are useless if the connection to the plant is broken.

      You can solve that problem with underground, redundant links. But putting the generators on-site doesn't solve the problem either.

      And a big fuck you to you.

      Come and try it, if you dare.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    37. Re:What about New Nadrid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      once you have those redundant links, why not connect them to the national power grid instead of hooking them to an off site generator. If your generator are off site and the connection to the reactor is damaged, your generator are useless, if the connection to the reactor is not, your off site generator is superfluous as you can get power from the national power grid anyway.

    38. Re:What about New Nadrid by 1u3hr · · Score: 1

      You can solve that problem with underground, redundant links.

      Really? Being underground makes it unbreakable during an earthquake?

      Come and try it, if you dare.

      We're on an Internet forum, you idiot. We're both anonymous. You can't physically threaten anyone, and expect anything except ridicule. So, "fuck you" again, and out.

    39. Re:What about New Nadrid by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      We're on an Internet forum, you idiot. We're both anonymous.

      I'm not anonymous, Anonymous, or Anonymous Coward. My email address is my real name and the city in which I live is not a secret. My home address is probably easy to come by.

      You can't physically threaten anyone, and expect anything except ridicule.

      You can't expect anything but ridicule in any case.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    40. Re:What about New Nadrid by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      once you have those redundant links, why not connect them to the national power grid instead of hooking them to an off site generator.

      Of course you are correct, except that they don't have a National power grid, they have two national power grids with a crappy interchange in between. If they really had a meaningful national power grid then it's a no-brainer to simply have the non-nuclear backup power (it's probably wise to have some) "somewhere else" that is well-connected. At the same time, you don't want it too many hops away...

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    41. Re:What about New Nadrid by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      the plant has its own backup generators which are useless when they are on-site.

      And ones off site are useless if the connection to the plant is broken.

      No, the point of the backup power generators is that they can be flown-in from offsite, which is what eventually happened when the US brought in a generator to the Fukushima plant at Japan's request.

      Then again, is the entire country just 10m above sea level? I don't see why these plants were built so close to the ocean in the first place.

    42. Re:What about New Nadrid by 1u3hr · · Score: 1

      No, the point of the backup power generators is that they can be flown-in from offsite,

      "No"? That's a third option.

    43. Re:What about New Nadrid by 1u3hr · · Score: 1
    44. Re:What about New Nadrid by mikael · · Score: 1

      Just saw a program today (C4 something in the UK. One of the problems with the walls in these towns, was that, while they were higher than the actual tsunami wave, the ground lost elevation by 1 to 2 metres due to the shock waves.

      One part of the program had views of a tourist in a Japanese park during the earthquake. He was filming the liquification of the ground as well as cracks opening up in the ground and pathways - some cases as wide as nine inches - these were moving at 5-10 cm/second.

      I might have seen the video of the wave coming over a wall, it just poured in round the bend, knocking over a tug or two. Since the camera-people were only two houses away, I'm guessing it was this one.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
  9. Investment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Hello!

    I am currently forming an investment group that is buying land around Carson City, NV and all along the Nevada and California border. With the next earthquake, our analysts expect California to drop into the Pacific making all of our land BEACHFRONT!

    Yours,

    Lex

    1. Re:Investment by Mspangler · · Score: 1

      "buying land around Carson City, NV and all along the Nevada and California border. With the next earthquake, our analysts expect California to drop into the Pacific making all of our land BEACHFRONT!"

      You might want to check out the location of the Walker Lane first. The future beach may not be where you think it will be. But in the long run you should have beaches on both sides of the rift, which would give you double the profit, minus anything lost at the bottom of the graben.

      The short version is draw a line from the Gulf of California through Death Valley to Pyramid Lake. then draw a dotted line from there to Susanville, CA. Dotted because that is a "not sure WTF is happening here" zone. Then draw a line from Susanville due west to the Mendocino Fault zone.

    2. Re:Investment by MobileTatsu-NJG · · Score: 1

      Hello!

      I am currently forming an investment group that is buying land around Carson City, NV and all along the Nevada and California border. With the next earthquake, our analysts expect California to drop into the Pacific making all of our land BEACHFRONT!

      Yours,

      Lex

      If I help you out, will you give me my own city? I shall call it: San Fierro!

      --

      "I like to lick butts!" by MobileTatsu-NJG (#32700246) (Score:5, Informative)

  10. I think one's coming in the next year by danbuter · · Score: 1

    The rest of the Rim has already had quakes (South America, New Zealand, and Japan). It makes sense for either Alaska or California to get the next hit. (BTW, I am a geologist, though not a seismologist or vulcanologist).

    1. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by sensei+moreh · · Score: 1

      How does it make sense? Where's the evidence? (BTW, I too am a geologist, though not a seismologist or vulcanologist).

      --
      Geology - it's not rocket science; it's rock science
    2. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by tloh · · Score: 1

      How does it make sense? Where's the evidence? (BTW, I too am a geologist, though not a seismologist or vulcanologist).

      Isn't it obvious? Since no earthquakes have occurred in Soviet Russia lately, the earthquake must happen to you! (BTW, I am neither a geologist, seismologist, nor vulcanologist.)

      --
      Stay sentient. Don't drink bad milk.
    3. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by danbuter · · Score: 1

      If there's give in one area, there has to be take in another area. I don't think it will be as big as Japan, but if you look at the tectonic plates, Alaska and California are clockwise from NZ and Japan, and that's the way the earthquakes have been trending.

    4. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by penguinchris · · Score: 1

      I'm glad there are other geologists questioning this. I haven't seen any evidence either, just speculation that anyone could come up with. Not that it seems an unreasonable hypothesis, but that's not enough! (BTW, I too am a geologist, though not a seismologist or a vulcanologist). :)

    5. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      Is there a structural link across the pacific basin which could cause that?

    6. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by danbuter · · Score: 1

      They are on the same plate.

    7. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      True but its rock, and on a large scale. Faults in the middle of the Pacific can soak up forces. The quakes themselves demonstrate that a slip in one place can cause a slip a hundred kilometres or so away. If the pacific basin is a solid slab like the foundations of a building then a big quake to the east is a near certainty in the next couple of years, given the time scale of previous quakes.

    8. Re:I think one's coming in the next year by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't the Cascadia Subduction Zone make more sense? It's the same kind of fault zone as the Sumatran, Chilean and Japanese faults.

  11. Big earthquakes by dogmatixpsych · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Geologists also believed a 9.0 earthquake virtually impossible from the location where the Japanese earthquake happened: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/03/japan-earthquake-surpise/

    People have been predicting a big California earthquake for many years. Yes, it'll happen at some point but if you're really worried about it then don't live in California (or the Pacific Northwest).

    1. Re:Big earthquakes by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      People have been predicting a big California earthquake for many years. Yes, it'll happen at some point but if you're really worried about it then don't live in California (or the Pacific Northwest).

      And/or be prepared and don't live in a structure which will come down on you, like the one I'm in now probably will. But we could be building with shipping containers etc structures that will not come down in essentially any earthquake.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:Big earthquakes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      you know, dickhead, most of us don't have the million dollars to build a magic earthquake proof home. We have building codes, most of our houses are built to them, and the rest are historical houses.

    3. Re:Big earthquakes by Solandri · · Score: 2
      IANAS (I am not a seismologist), but I did study earthquake-resistant building construction safety as part of my structural engineering courses, which involved a fair amount of info on earthquakes and expected degree of shaking.

      Geologists also believed a 9.0 earthquake virtually impossible from the location where the Japanese earthquake happened: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/03/japan-earthquake-surpise/

      I don't really buy that. It was a subduction zone. All subduction zones are capable of huge quakes. The article seems to imply that because there had been no quake bigger than 7.5-8.0 from the area in recorded history, scientists didn't believe anything bigger was possible. The problem with that is these huge 9+ quakes typically have intervals of centuries or millenia. So unless you have several thousand years of good records, you're on shaky ground (no pun intended) predicting a huge earthquake cannot happen at a portion of a subduction zone.

      Another thing to keep in mind is that the moment magnitude scale used to classify earthquakes is a measure of the energy released by the quake. The energy released is roughly the amplitude of movement of the two chunks of land along the fault multiplied by the surface area (m^2, not area at the surface) of the fault which slipped. Slip-strike faults like the San Andreas have two chunks of land moving past each other sideways. They extend only a few tens of km down into the ground because that's how thick the Earth's crust is. Essentially they're long and skinny. So they only way they can generate huge magnitudes is if a very long segment of the fault (several hundred km, probably several thousand for a 9.0) were to slip. This is (1) unlikely to happen - one segment of the fault is likely to slip before the other thus making several smaller quakes instead of one huge one, and (2) would distribute the energy of the earthquake over a much larger land surface area, blunting its impact on any one area.

      A subduction zone quake OTOH involves one plate moving underneath the other. This results in a broader contact area, sometimes a hundred km in breadth or more. A shorter length of the fault slipping involves a larger area because the area which slips is shaped more like a square or broad rectangle, rather than a long, thin rectangle. As a result, a shorter segment of the fault slipping has more energy released, that energy is directed at a smaller land surface area, and because of the broader contact area it's easier for a longer segment of the fault to slip. The segment of earth which slipped in the 1960 Chilean quake (9.5) is estimated to be 800 km long. That'd be like a California earthquake stretching from Los Angeles to San Francisco, which is just inconceivable due to the relatively small depth of the San Andreas fault.

      People have been predicting a big California earthquake for many years. Yes, it'll happen at some point but if you're really worried about it then don't live in California (or the Pacific Northwest).

      The most dangerous area for an earthquake in the continguous U.S. is in the south-central Midwest. That area has produced the largest earthquake in recorded U.S. history (8.0), and because of the infrequency of earthquakes there the building construction codes and preparedness are woefully inadequate. I live in Southern California which has a reputation as a hotspot for earthquakes, but you could not pay me enough to live around St. Louis. Well, maybe if I got to design and build my own house, and it came with its own drinking water well and power generation facilitie

    4. Re:Big earthquakes by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      you know, dickhead, most of us don't have the million dollars to build a magic earthquake proof home. We have building codes, most of our houses are built to them, and the rest are historical houses.

      It costs LESS to build a magic earthquake proof home out of scrap and waste. Most people, however, are married to the notion of buying the same shit-shack pile of crap that they've always lived in because they think that sheet rock is dandy and that building from timber is sustainable. Add to that building codes which were once well-intentioned but which are now used strictly for legal protectionism and it's beyond difficult to actually get a safe house built and sold. Consequently we put up more bullshit buildings which conform to earthquake codes which guarantee that the buildings will need to be torn down within a century, because they are sloppy and tied together at all the major points only with thin, perforated pieces of steel which are warped over time by the movement of the building with quakes and high winds.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  12. Just in case you've been living under a rock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Newsweek reports that first there was a violent magnitude-8.8 event in Chile in 2010, then a horrifically destructive Pacific earthquake in New Zealand on February 22, and now the recent earthquake in Japan.

    Thanks Newsweek!

    1. Re:Just in case you've been living under a rock by jack2000 · · Score: 1

      Hey now, time travelers need that stuff. Nothing like checking the newspaper machine for the paper and looking at the date and recent major disasters.

  13. house cat flu by greenfruitsalad · · Score: 2, Funny

    does anybody else remember the house cat flu episode from simpsons? "We're here to come up with the next phony baloney crisis to put Americans back where they belong - in dark rooms, glued to their televisions, too terrified to skip the commercials."

  14. Economist Article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    There was an article in the Economist on this issue this week. The potential for a really big Earthquake lies further north off the cost of Washington State and British Columbia.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/03/megaquakes

    1. Re:Economist Article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For those who want to put a name to this, it's called the Cascadia Fault. Look it up.

  15. California? It figures... by Third+Position · · Score: 1, Funny

    Some states will do anything to get out of paying their bills....

    --
    American Third Position
    Finally, a real choice!
  16. Need superconducting materials first ... by perpenso · · Score: 3, Funny

    Where are our floating cities, we've been promised floating cities and flying cars. I want my god damned flying car!

    Research performed by Larry Niven suggests that we need at least two unrelated forms of superconducting material to have minimal redundancy in the power distribution subsystems, preferably four unrelated forms for quad redundancy.

    1. Re:Need superconducting materials first ... by MarkvW · · Score: 1

      Thanks. I couldn't complete my Niven studies because the third Ringworld book sucked.

    2. Re:Need superconducting materials first ... by Kilrah_il · · Score: 1

      How dare you say the N**** name in vain! Infidel.

      And on a more serious note, read "Destiny's Road". It will reignite your love for hard SF.

      --
      Whenever in an argument, remember this.
    3. Re:Need superconducting materials first ... by mysidia · · Score: 1

      Who cares about redundancy? The single point of failure in a flying car is the human pilot

      And given how badly people drive their earthbound cars, I'm scared as hell at the thought of people driving flying cars. Especially anywhere near my house.

  17. California? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And nothing of value was lost.

    1. Re:California? by ThunderBird89 · · Score: 1

      Hollywood? ... Um, okay, you got that right.
      JPL? Google?

      --
      Hyperbole: I use it liberally!
  18. Possible cause. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Fat people on rollerblades.

  19. The Question by ThunderBird89 · · Score: 1

    Are we going to be treated to a live feed of the greatest disaster movie of all time? Come on, Big Media, it'll be worth it!

    --
    Hyperbole: I use it liberally!
  20. Not as hard as magnets by justin12345 · · Score: 1

    "Though there is still no hard scientific evidence to explain why, there is little doubt now that earthquakes do tend to occur in clusters"

    "Fucking plate tectonics, how do they work?"

    Hint: It's moving in more then one direction at any given time. Think of them as slowly spinning instead of moving linearly (though they do move gradually westward due to the rotation of the earth too).

    --
    Cool art gallery, if you're into that sort of thing.
    1. Re:Not as hard as magnets by ferd_farkle · · Score: 1

      The Earth moves one way, the Earth moves the other way.
      You can't explain that.

    2. Re:Not as hard as magnets by justin12345 · · Score: 1

      And I don’t wanna talk to a scientist
      Y’all motherfuckers lying, and getting me pissed.

      --
      Cool art gallery, if you're into that sort of thing.
  21. I hereby declare war... by thatbloke83 · · Score: 1

    ...against the San Andreas Fault Line!

    We must destroy this threat to the stability of California with all available military power!

  22. Cascadia Subduction Zone is the most likely by garyebickford · · Score: 1

    I suspect that the next 'big one' is more likely to be offshore of Washington or Oregon, on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The San Andreas fault zone is a strike-slip type which is more commonly associated with quakes up to about 7. The Cascadia zone is a subduction type (between three plates, just to make it interesting) where one plate is riding up over another, that is associated with quakes up to 9 or even 10. This is the same type as the one off Japan. It has historically had a big quake about every 300 years off of Oregon - 41 times in the last 10,000 years. The last one, on January 26 1700 IIRC (that would be 350 years ago - it's overdue - it's gone from 200 to 600 years in the past), resulted in some areas dropping six feet, among other things. Historically the tsunami from these quakes have been very large - 10 and up. Some people predict 30 meters.

    If it happens close to Seattle, one might expect Puget sound to act like a bathtub, with the water sloshing back and forth across the sound. That part of downtown that is built on rubble fill is likely to get washed out.

    --
    It's easier to be a result of the past, but more fun to be a cause of the future! http://www.spacefinancegroup.com/
    1. Re:Cascadia Subduction Zone is the most likely by failedlogic · · Score: 1

      I think people in the area are likely not prepared at all. I lived in Vancouver BC (Canada) and while its not "on" the coast, any major earthquake in the northern US especially in that magnitude is sure to have many consequences.

    2. Re:Cascadia Subduction Zone is the most likely by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      "The last one, on January 26 1700 IIRC (that would be 350 years ago...."

      New math, or did I REALLY sleep in this morning?

    3. Re:Cascadia Subduction Zone is the most likely by garyebickford · · Score: 1

      Haha! Oops... :)

      --
      It's easier to be a result of the past, but more fun to be a cause of the future! http://www.spacefinancegroup.com/
    4. Re:Cascadia Subduction Zone is the most likely by hedwards · · Score: 1

      To be honest, the possible tsunami here isn't worth worrying about. Puget sound is largely isolated so unless the earthquake is somewhere in the Salish sea, it's not going to directly affect us. And if it is in that body of water, the amount of time it takes to react will be a lot more than we've got. Even if folks start runnning for high ground immediately.

    5. Re:Cascadia Subduction Zone is the most likely by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What I worry about more is Seattle's flimsy buildings.

      In the Capitol Hill neighorhood, it's quite common to see brick apartment buildings on stilts, to accommodate parking under them. Genius!

      Not to mention Belltown is built on fill.

  23. Ventaxian mythology by SoVeryTired · · Score: 1

    Ardra's return is imminent! It's the only way to explain the quakes!

    --
    Slashdot: news for Apple. Stuff that Apple.
    1. Re:Ventaxian mythology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      She was really hot, but she was waaaaay hotter in Tales of the Gold Monkey.

  24. Goodbye, you lizard scum! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When LA falls in the fuckin' ocean and is flushed away, all there will be is Arizona Bay.

  25. Blame it on the solar cycle by clyde_cadiddlehopper · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There have been FIVE magnitude 8.5 or greater mega-quakes since 2004. This seems odd since there have only been two dozen of these bad boys since the 1700s.

    Hmmmm. We're just coming out of the deepest solar minimum in the last century or more. Wonder if other mega-quakes happened around solar minima? Yup. November 1755 (Lisbon), November 1833 (Sumatra), August 1868 (Arica Peru), November 1922 (Valenar Chile), March 1964 (Prince William Sound Alaska), February 1965 (Rat Islands Alaska). Could there be a link between the solar cycle and plate techtonics? Think interplanetary magnetic fields and remember that we're riding big plates that float on a molten spinning magnet.

    Step 1: Get a list of reaaallly big quakes since the 1700s. 8.5+. The interplate kind, not the run-of-the-mill intraplate stuff. You can find a list here. Or get a fuller list of historical quakes at usgs.gov.

    Step 2: Get the monthly sunspot numbers since records were kept. The Royal Observatory of Belgium has a data set here.

    Step 3: Note the correlation between mega quakes and low sunspot numbers. The median sunspot number is 47, the median sunspot number at the time of 8.5+ quakes is 23. (Same when you move the hurdle down to 8.3+ and include a lot more earthquakes) Make an x-y scatter plot in OpenOffice Calc or MS-Excel. Visually note how many occur within a few months of solar minimum.

    Step 4: Recall that the next solar minimum is due in ten years.

    Steps 5-9: ...

    Step 10: Profit!

    --
    Obi-Wan: "I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were sudden
    1. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's the black holes from CERN munching away at the earth's inner core, believe me ;-)

    2. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by SwedishPenguin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      IANA Geologist, but I doubt there's any reliable data on earthquakes from the 1700's. Human settlement was much less widespread at the time as well so many earthquakes may not have affected many people or anyone at all, thus there was no one around to tell the story, and there were no seismometers so any Richter scale estimates would probably be based on damage to human settlements, which could have been far from the epicenter.

    3. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by __roo · · Score: 4, Informative

      It's very likely that there were more than eight 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes before 1900. The Wikipedia you reference says "(est)" after those quakes because reliable global earthquake monitoring only started in the last century. Those eight quakes are famous and, deadly, and most importantly, directly affected (and killed) Europeans. The magnitudes were estimated from historical records.

      There were certainly many more large earthquakes between 1700 and 1900, but they weren't recorded.

      A little more info on large quakes (including references to the sources for the data on large earthquakes since 1900) here, if you're interested: USGS list of 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes since 1900

    4. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You need a p-value. Only fools do stats by eyeball.

    5. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wouldn't step 10 be "prophet" in this case?

    6. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Please provide a hypothesis to explain the results. Unfortunately, your post doesn't provide enough data points to motivate even an interested researcher.

    7. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      There have been FIVE magnitude 8.5 or greater mega-quakes since 2004. This seems odd since there have only been two dozen of these bad boys since the 1700s.

      Since we only have accurate magnitude data since roughly 1900, you're just blowing smoke.
       

      Could there be a link between the solar cycle and plate techtonics?

      Since solar minima happen regularly, and earthquakes happen constantly - it's pretty easy to cherry pick and 'prove' anything you want. Given the number of large earthquakes which you ignore which *didn't* happen in your time frames (and in fact outnumber those which happened in your time frames) shows that, again, you're just blowing pseudo scientific smoke.

    8. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by crunchygranola · · Score: 1

      ...

      There were certainly many more large earthquakes between 1700 and 1900, but they weren't recorded.

      ...

      It is useful to note how we happen to know about one of the great earthquakes that occurred during this period - the last great Cascadia quake on Jan. 27, 1700. We know about this one because of the "orphan tsunami" that hit Japan that day. It was a tsunami of historic proportions that appeared without warning due to a distant great earthquake. The evidence conclusively points to a Cascadia subduction zone quake up to Magnitude 9. Without the Japanese observation of the tsunami we might not know about this quake (though dating tree rings killed by the quake would have eventually uncovered it).

      --
      Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
    9. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by clyde_cadiddlehopper · · Score: 1

      I doubt there's any reliable data on earthquakes from the 1700's.

      Thank you.

      There is no reason to doubt the actual occurrence of the listed events in the 1700s: they really happened and the dates are well established. Granted the magnitudes are educated guesses, but these megaquakes left a significant trail in the geological record. Your doubt more likely rests on the possibility there were unrecorded megaquakes that snuck by without notice. I personally doubt that megaquakes would have gone unrecorded after 1750 (when sunspot records began) anywhere on the planet except Antarctica or the mid-Atlantic rift. Someone should've taken notice - whether by empire-building Europeans in Australia, New Zealand, the Americas, South Africa, India, Hispaniola, ... or by resident cultures in quake and / or tsunami prone areas like Turkey, Pakistan, Hawaii, Indonesia, Japan, China, India, Korea, Kamchatka, the Aleutian Islands and such. But allowing the possibility of a megaquake sneaking by without shaking or swamping anybody, the seismometer was well refined and widely distributed by the late 1800s. There is no plausible case for "missing megaquakes" after 1890. Even when the starting point of the analysis is moved to that decade, the point remains unchanged: an unusual cluster of 8.5+ earthquakes has occurred since 2004.

      With regard to the apparent preference for megaquakes to occur during solar minima, I would not toss the data going back to 1750. There is no plausible selection bias for preferentially observing and recording 8.5+ quakes that favors those that occur during solar minima over those that occur at other periods.

      --
      Obi-Wan: "I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were sudden
    10. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by pfafrich · · Score: 1

      OK, taking the dates from List of earthquakes and List of solar cycles. If we limit the range to when both sets overlap i.e. 1755 - now and split the data into buckets according to how many years the earth quake is from nearest solar cycle we find -5 years before: 0; -4 4; -3 0; -2 0; -1 5; 0 3; 1 3; 2 1; 3 1; 4 2; 5 0. The data does have highest numbers in the -1, 0, and 1 buckets. We can then use a chi squared test on these as we would expect 19/11 in each bucket ie. 1.73. Doing the chi squared test gives a p-value of 0.045. Significant at the 5% level!

      --
      There are four sorts of people in the world: fools, lunatics, idiots and morons. - Umberto Eco, Foucaut's pendulum.
    11. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Qzukk · · Score: 1

      There is no plausible selection bias for preferentially observing and recording 8.5+ quakes that favors those that occur during solar minima over those that occur at other periods.

      The solar minima meant it was too dark to see the quake, duh!

      --
      If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
    12. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The obvious connection would be that the action of the magnetosphere deflecting solar particles places stresses on that magnetic field that, in turn, places stresses on the magnet generating that magnetic field. Changes in solar activity leads to changes in the stresses on the core of the planet, leading to flexing. This should be observable by an increase in activity both at the onset of a solar minima and after solar activity starts back up again.

    13. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by inKubus · · Score: 1

      The moon is close to the earth right now and opposite the sun, which tends to stretch the Earth and increase the probability of plate slip.

      --
      Cool! Amazing Toys.
    14. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You'd have to argue that the presence of Europeans (to describe the earthquakes) is somehow related to their cause (sunspots). Otherwise, this subset of observed earthquakes is a random draw from all earthquakes. A random subset of events has a significant correlation with a possible cause iff the entire set has.

      Now, this isn't entirely impossible to argue - sunspots might have affected the European economies. Remember that the industrial revolution was well on its way, though. Coal and steam aren't subject to sunspots, which means that sunspots were already less disruptive.

    15. Re:Blame it on the solar cycle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and here is one such "profiteer", becoming increasingly popular down in NZ since the Christchurch quake ...

      http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=306&type=home

  26. well CA may be come a floating state after this go by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 0

    well CA may be come a floating state after this goes off.

  27. Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by david.emery · · Score: 2

    When we lived in the Pacific Northwest, I paid attention to the predictions/analysis of the Pacific/San Juan de Fuca (SJF) plate boundary. The predictions there are for a really big earthquake associated with the boundary. As I recall (and I hope some geologist will correct me if I get it wrong), the San Andreas fault is a lateral slip fault, the plates slide against each other. But the SJF fault is a buckle(?) fault. Instead of sliding laterally, the pressure builds up as the plates collide by pushing into each other, like pushing the fingers of your hand against your palm, keeping your fingers straight. Eventually, your fingers slip and kinda "sproing," creating a Really Big earthquake. Historical evidence indicates this happens fairly frequently and when it does, the resulting quake and tsunami are doozies!

    We have friends in both Seattle and Vancouver, I hope I'm wrong...

    1. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by sycomonkey · · Score: 1

      Well it's going to happen eventually, even if it's not the "big one" this article is predicting, the fact is that the SJF subduction zone has an extremely violent earthquake, on average, every few hundred years. And there was a big one in 1700. The average is 500 years, so maybe we can get along until 2200 before the next one. Maybe not. But it will happen eventually.

      --
      --The universe will not be altered by forum threads, even those which are very wry. --Tycho Brahe (Penny Arcade)
    2. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Grishnakh · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I know this is rather extreme and probably rather expensive, but isn't there something that can be done to prevent or lessen earthquakes by relieving the pressure along the fault line? Perhaps a series of bombs buried along the fault, detonated simultaneously or in sequence, to cause a small earthquake instead of allowing the pressure to build up so much? Even if it were an expensive project, it'd be a lot cheaper than allowing Seattle and Vancouver to be laid waste.

    3. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by MS · · Score: 1

      The probability the big one will happen in 2200 or in 2011 is exactly the same. 500 years is only an average. Like with dices where the propability is one out of six, but that doesn't mean, every sixth throw gives the same number - all numbers are allways equally possible no matter what the previous numbers were.

    4. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by andre1s · · Score: 1

      Not exactly dice throws are independent of each other the earthquakes actually are a result of tension buildup so they are in no way independent of each other

    5. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No their is nothing that can be done. When the entire earth is just a series of big plates essentially sitting on liquid. They are going to bump and grind and ram into each other and their is not a damn thing we can do to stop it.

      Most of the tectonic plates are as big or bigger than all of north America, and that is a lot of mass we are not going to stop moving.

    6. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Riceballsan · · Score: 1

      No idea of the feasibility of the concept, but he isn't saying to "stop" the plates from moving but to force them to move when they jam. In other words causing an earthquake to occur when the pressure has been building up for 1 year, rather then waiting 25 years for the pressure to grow enough to release itself

    7. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      Pumping water into the ground at high pressure seems to do the trick. It happened in the past and most recently at several fracking sites.
      Of course you could also trigger the big one this way.

    8. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      Thank you. I'd rather deal with a 4.0 earthquake than a 9.0 one.

    9. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tesla Howitzer purportedly HAARP

    10. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      It seems to me that, now that our civilization has developed space-faring technology (to a small degree), and weapons of great power, and given the fact that natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, and asteroid impacts) are things that have always happened during the Earth's history, but now that we've built up giant cities that can't be moved easily and huge death tolls result when these disasters happen, we as a civilization need to be working much harder on proactively mitigating these disasters. Some other poster mentioned pumping high-pressure water into faultlines to relieve pressure, and with sufficient observation and rockets, we can redirect asteroids. We need to be doing much more to protect ourselves from these unavoidable natural disasters, including changing the environment to keep them from happening in the first place (or at least from being as destructive as they could be).

      Just like we have dentists to drill out small amounts of decay in our teeth and fill it, rather than just letting the whole tooth decay, become abscessed, and then allowing that infection to spread throughout the body and kill us, we need to come up with measures to relieve the pressures on crustal plates, perhaps by causing small earthquakes, so that we don't have any more 8-10 size earthquakes that level cities, cause giant tsunamis, and kill millions of people at a time. Just like some small discomfort from the dentist's drill is preferable to losing a tooth, getting a root canal, or needing IV antibiotics, a series of very small, controlled and planned earthquakes are far preferable to one giant one. We have the technology, or at least we have the capability to develop and deploy the technology in a relatively short time. Instead of wasting trillions of dollars on useless wars, we need to allocate more money to protecting the civilization we have.

    11. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I know this is rather extreme and probably rather expensive, but isn't there something that can be done to prevent or lessen earthquakes by relieving the pressure along the fault line?

      There are two problems with such suggestions.

      a) We don't really know how to predict earthquakes and hence intervention may just as well cause them as prevent them. Until we understand why they occur at specific times it is not going to be feasible to lessen their impact by manipulating the earthquakes themselves.

      b) Even if we could intervene it would probably be much more cost effective to strengthen our cities. While the Japanese have seen many injured and dead from the latest disaster, a disaster of that magnitude would have been much much worse had it hit a country that doesn't have the same kind of preparation for earthquakes as Japan does.

    12. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      lex, lex luthor...is that you, buddy?

    13. Re:Pacific/San Juan de Fuca boundary? by MS · · Score: 1

      They may be dependent from each other (it seems obvious), but... the possibility the next earthquake happens this year, the next year or in 10 years is exactly the same, as long as we cannot calculate or measure that persumed "dependency".

  28. Not until 2012 by SolarStorm · · Score: 0

    Duh, I thought everyone figured this out once they released the movie!

  29. Citation needed. by hailstop · · Score: 1

    The article asserts that major earthquakes cluster around the edges of plates, but doesn't give references. Yes, major earthquakes cluster in time, but this isn't suprising. Any set of rare events will see clustering in time. It'd be a surprise if it weren't. It doesn't need a cause. Second, the Christchurch earthquake wasn't anything exception as far as strength, and it wasn't even located on the subduction zone, but another unknown fault 100km inland. What made that earthquake exceptional was that it was very shallow and was directly under the city. It wasn't even that strong of an earthquake. The Nisqually quake in Washington state 10 years ago was 0.5 magintudes stronger, but was very deep, which is why it didn't do nearly the damage that it could have, considering it was of the same magnitude of the Loma Prieta quake. And to predict that the San Andreas is next isn't anything special either. The southern part of the San Andreas is well overdue for a large quake. It could happen tomorrow, but it wouldn't have anything to do with the Chille or Japan quakes. Third, what geologists are claiming that these quakes are connected anyway? The Newsweek doesn't quote any, and the journalist is not a seismologist.

  30. predictions vs probability by Drache+Kubisuro · · Score: 1

    If you look at earthquakes over many years, it's random. Humans love to see clusters. Actors die in threes. Airplanes crash in threes. It's what we do. Will a major earthquake happen on the San Andreas? Yes. Can we say when? No. Be prepared, but don't fear monger based on tenuous "global patterns" that have not been vetted by any peer reviewed science. Notice the probabilities in this new item. That is not prediction. It works like the 100-year flood. We know it'll happen based on "reoccurrence" intervals (which for earthquakes are more tenuous than for floods) and can assign a probability. We can know that there are a lot of stress on faults and know that a fault has not slipped in a very long time... but we can't know when the rocks will break.

    --
    -Drache Kubisuro
    1. Re:predictions vs probability by ironjaw33 · · Score: 1

      Exactly. Half the commenters above say something about California being "due" for an earthquake, which is a regression fallacy. Furthermore, is there really any evidence that the earthquakes described in TFA have any dependent relationship at all?

    2. Re:predictions vs probability by MasaMuneCyrus · · Score: 1

      There is no research that shows that California is due for the next big one simply due to the presence of a big one elsewhere on the plate.

      There is, however, lots of research that shows that California's next big one is coming, and there's enough stress built up for a M7.0+ right now. The fault trembles a lot (I've heard from others, not directly looked into it myself) just every time big teleseismic Rayleigh waves pass through the area. The "big one" is definitely coming, but technically, geologically speaking, "it's ready to blow" is equal to "it could blow tomorrow or 150 years from now." Heck, the Japanese M9.0 earthquake was caused from the plates being locked for a long freakin' time. It could have ruptured any time in the past many decades, but it chose to rupture after it built up the energy for a M9.0; earthquake prediction isn't a very exact science.

      Some other ones to worry about, though, are the Northwest Pacific -- iirc, they're ready for their next M9.0 megathrust event. And Japan is still overdue their next "big one" -- the Great Tokai Quake. It just so happens that they got an unrelated M9.0 while waiting for their next gigantic M8.0+ quake.

      Another thing people don't know is that while these super-gigantic megathrust earthquakes seem to be causing the largest tsunamis, that's not always the case. Normal faulting quakes are capable of much larger tsunamis at much smaller magnitudes. The size of the tsunami is directly related to the size of the offset of the water. It takes a huge megathrust earthquake to displace the billions of tons of water upward that it takes to cause one of these Japan or Indonesia-sized tsunamis. However, if you have a relatively small normal faulting event (say, M7.0) that creates a huge rift in the ocean, suddenly you have the force of gravity suck a ton of water downward into the rift that develops -- which means a ton of water displacement, and a huge tsunami.

      And then you have ones like the M6.3 that damaged Christchurch so badly. A M6.3 is hardly even news in highly advanced earthquake-prone societies. The problem there was that it was so damn shallow. Such a shallow earthquake is going to produce huge ground accelerations, and all the sediments that we like to build cities on (as opposed to hard bedrock, which is much safer) is going to amplify that ground motion. On top of that, you have liquefaction in big sediment areas. And from what I understand, the Christchurch earthquake happened on a previously unknown (or at least benign) fault. This is something that's going to happen a lot in places like China -- if you've seen a fault map of California, imagine that kind of mess on a US-sized scale; that's China, and they've just begun the problem of mapping their faults (not to mention they've already built nuclear plants and huge dams on top of them).

  31. Geologist? That's no Geologist... by ironjaw33 · · Score: 2

    The author's only claim to being a geologist is a college degree in Geology he earned in the 60s. For the last 50 years, this guy's been a novelist. So where's the research that says that California is _due_ for an earthquake _because_ of the other massive quakes along the Ring of Fire?

  32. Not just California by PowerEdge · · Score: 1

    California could experience a 8.0 or greater easily. Remember, where the Japan quake struck a 9.0 wasn't "supposed" to happen. Now, we know for certain the Juan de Faca subduction zone, responsible for the Cascade range of Volcanoes is capabable of 9+ magnitude earthquakes and the devastating Tsunamis that follow. The last such even was recorded in Japan about 350 years ago and they occur every 300-400 years. We can tell from the rock record. I can say with almost 100% certainty that the US Pacific Northwest will be hit with such an event with increasing probability over the next 100 years.

  33. Cascadia Subduction zone by baomike · · Score: 1

    Put that in Google and read away.
    Forget about the San Andreas, this is where the big ones come from.
    Fortunately not too often.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov

  34. Earthquakes happen in clusters because by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "No one knows why earthquakes happen in clusters"

    Uh yes they do.

    if a whole tectonic plate moves, it puts stress on many of its points.

    the chile quake has an interesting subduction zone plate, where it's being pushed by the pacific plate as at the same time the south american plate is overriding it., so chile rumbled as the pacific place diverged from the plate down there (I forget the name, I want to say nazca plate)

    The big one up here (and honestly, I believe it was the "big one" we were waiting for, the earth does not care about nation borders or locations, only egotistical scientists care about where it is, oh boo hoo california didnt experience it.) was in Mexicali, centered on some mountains that are RIGHT on top of a divergent zone (pacific plate moving away from NA) underneath that region, in fact, that entire region is sinking as a result.

    Then with that pressure, we got an earthquake in new zealand as the pacific plate got pushed under the australasia plate.

    Now it pushed under the asian plate where japan is, and it still is, note the thousands of aftershocks.

    California is bound to have a few quakes off the san andreas as the san andreas is a transform boundary moving away from a divergent boundary (the mexicali quake area, imperial county and the salton sea area) but I doubt they're gonna be the "big one" as a lot of pressure has already been released.

    In fact the San Andreas is moving all the time, that creeping motion helps keep pressure off of it. Usually pressure gets released through the other faults in the San Andreas system, like the Coyote creek fault, the San Jacinto fault, Elsinore and Whittier Faults in so cal.

    Then faults like the Shoreline faults in central cali, and the Hayward fault in the bay area.

    I wouldnt worry about the plates up north too much (remnants of the farallon plate that created california and the sierras) as the pressure seems to be away from there, then again, I dont look at things up there.

  35. ...and I am told that all swans are white too! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The Fukushima nuclear power plant was built to withstand a 7.0 earthquake according to IAEA in December 2008. Last Friday's quake; (a surreal 9.0), was a "black swan" event. I don't know if it is me but building nuclear power plants; (PLURAL), on ocean front properties that are within tens-of-miles from an earthquake fault is extraordinarily poor planning. It seems so obvious that predicting what the San Andreas fault is capable of is both arrogant and a dangerous bet.

    1. Re:...and I am told that all swans are white too! by ShoulderOfOrion · · Score: 1

      They should build nuke plants on steep cliffs near the ocean in fault zones. Then when they go, the whole reactor will be dumped into the sea. No need to pump sea water then.

  36. Wrong names of earthquakes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There was the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 and Northridge earthquake of 1994. There were plenty of cities closer to the epicenters than San Francisco and Los Angeles. They are not considered the great quakes of SF and LA because they weren't that close to them. Heck San Jose was closer to the Loma Prieta epicenter than San Francisco and more people live in San Jose.

  37. Same song... by Schmyz · · Score: 1

    ..and panic dance. Lived in So.Cal my entire life...went thru the LA shake..and was in Oakland during its quake. If you live here you should be prepared for it.

  38. Sounds fishy to me by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

    Not only does the Pacific plate go nowhere near Chile (the Nazca plate intervenes)... There's a hell of a lot of border of the the Pacific plate that doesn't go anywhere near California *and* hasn't had a big quake recently. (Ever heard of the Aleutian Islands?)
     
    This just taking what we already knew (that California is at severe risk for a Big One) and wrapping it in unsourced journalistic hype.

  39. ouch! you sure told California by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Except for the fact that California has a net outflow of cash to the federal government. It pays more into the Federal budget than it receives in Federal spending.

  40. 2012 movie. by FriendlyPrimate · · Score: 1

    If the 2012 movie taught me anything, it's that any disaster can be prepared for....except for maybe a movie with a really horrible plot line. There's nothing really to prepare you for that.

  41. Not exactly a preview. by hailstop · · Score: 1

    The damage to Vancouver, Seattle and Portland will be significantly higher from the earthquake itself due to the lack of bombardment (and subsequent rebuilding) in WW2, so that the building codes for many older buildings aren't up to snuff. Plus those three cities will be closer to the epicenter than Tokyo was. As far as the Tsunami goes, the damage won't be as great simply because the coast isn't as populated. I think the largest town is 9,000 people. Though on the other hand, there will be less time between the quake and the tsunami.

  42. Groundbreaking Research by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I watched a TV documentary about earthquakes and Canada's west (wet) coast about two years ago. It has different fault lines than California's San Andreas fault, although it is connected (and its likely that when one goes, the other will too). Seismic researchers have started using a lot of GPS data loggers to record exact positions of mountain peaks, elevations, etc. They found that every 18 months, give or take about 6 weeks, that Vancouver Island would have a magnitude 1.8 to 2.2 earthquake. Then they found that looking at historical data, there were more major earthquakes (4-5) further along (ones large enough to make the local papers). They described their findings in which the smaller earthquakes relieved sublimation stress where the North American Plate butts into the Pacific Plate. The smaller quakes relieve stress at the local fault locations, but rachets up stress in other places, where the plates are thicker. Since there is much more force where plates are thicker (weight) it takes a lot more force to move them, but when the force does move, there's a whole lotta' shakin' goin' on (much like the Japanese quake where the entire island moved closer to the United States, 8 feet). They were noticing entire mountain ridges moving several inches after a seismic event (they though things moved at a geological pace, millimeters per century, not inches per minute during an earthquake). It was (at the time), ......groundbreaking research.

  43. Hayward Fault pwns San Andreas Fault by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "A tectonic time bomb in our backyard: Earthquake potential of the Hayward fault"
    Dr. Roland Burgmann, UC Berkeley
    The Lawson Lecture is a public lecture sponsored by the Seismological Laboratory.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHLWfI2TcHA

    Hayward Fault is our deadliest - a 'tectonic time bomb'
    East Bay sits on a 'tectonic time bomb' where big quakes occur about every 140 years - the last was [143] years ago
    http://articles.sfgate.com/2007-10-18/news/17266044_1_hayward-fault-east-bay-quake

  44. Hugh Pickens = Insurance Shill? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What is Hugh Pickens talking about? Any geologist in the world would point to the Pacific NW and the Cascadia Subduction Zone, not California. The San Andreas is a strike slip fault, meaning there are two plates sliding side by side. This cannot release anywhere near as much energy a subduction fault, where one plate is push under another.

    Also, the San Andreas and Hayward faults both run over land and will not cause a tsunami (unless it cause a very large rockslide that falls into the Pacific a la Lituya Bay 1958).

    More reading: http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-03-12/news/28682578_1_san-andreas-magnitude-smaller-quakes

  45. Seattle? Vancouver? by Slutticus · · Score: 1

    Terrible article.
    They don't even mention the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which is perfectly capable of producing a +9 quake.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone

  46. Optimal Doomsday Business Model by istartedi · · Score: 1

    Yep, Consider doomsday in general. What is the optimal ammount of time for a doomsdey prophet to get his message out? He needs time to build a following, get buzz, donations, etc. When it doesn't come true he fades into the background with a modest take. If it does come true, he/she can cash in big. IIRC, Jean Dixon did this with the Kennedy Asassination. I'm not sure how she worded here prediction, or what the timeframe was; but a lot of people believe she predicted it. That got her a lucrative horoscope column for decades. Not sure what she's up to now; might be dead. Anyway...

    Let's say you want to break into the doomsday business. You can just choose a year; but that's a bit too easy. There are 365 days in a year. Pick a day 10-20 years from now. That gives you roughly 3650 days. The clock is starting--build your buzz. Really, if you can't get funding for your "startup" in that time you shouldn't be in the business anyway.

    Think about that. Even if these guys are so bold as to pick a particular day, you only need about 3k guys in the ENTIRE WORLD to cover a timeframe that people care about. Less than 10 years? Too soon if you haven't got buzz yet. More than 20? Too far off. The old people figure they'll be dead anyway, and the youngsters think they'll live forever. I'm not sure if the 10/10 rule is optimal. I'll leave "optimal doomsday buzz building" for some PhD Psychology candidate.

    BTW, this works for anything not just Jesus coming back. A lot of guys do it in finance particularly. They don't pick a date. I don't think just anybody can do it. You have to have charisma, and you have to have been doing it for a while. Once again, when it actually looks like the market is going in the direction you predict (which it usually will at some point if you pick something that's happened before) you start cashing in. CNBC, here you come. Write a few books. Retire. Pretty sweet gig. Funny thing is, I don't think these guys could pull it off if they didn't actually believe it themselves.

    Statisticly though, I think it's BS which is while I'll probably never make it in the doomsday business.

    --
    For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
    1. Re:Optimal Doomsday Business Model by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      A big earthquake in one region followed by a tsunami is not a doomsday unless you live that region. The choice really is how you want to play the odds. If you live in Napoli near Mount Vesuvius and you don't consider the ruins of Pompeii, well, one day it will happen.

      So the decision with high risk regions is the balance of gain lifestyle, income, versus the balance of loss you and your family and how much of a gambler you are with such high risks on the table.

      Let's be honest when the odds aren't looking that good, you can always take the safe option, the loss is a measure of lifestyle the gain might well be your life ie if there are much safer places to live what is the harm in moving to them.

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  47. Property in AZ by splatter · · Score: 1

    Everyone hold on to that land in Arizona, looks like it's going to be ocean front property soon.....

    no one said it before me? /. What are you coming too.

    --
    "(I) have this unfortunate condition that causes me not to believe a single thing any politician says when a mic's on.
    1. Re:Property in AZ by BancBoy · · Score: 1

      Everyone hold on to that land in Arizona, looks like it's going to be ocean front property soon.....

      no one said it before me? /. What are you coming too.

      http://news.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=2044586&cid=35541762
      Actually, somebody did say it before you.

      --
      [UID-HeinzIntel]
  48. Garbage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The amount of wishful thinking going on wishing we could have a major disaster of our very own every week is an amazing side effect of not being directly affected by one. So we write fantasy articles to let everyone dream about the day that it will eventually happen. All of us secretly want our lives to be a little more Mad Max and post-apocalyptic. Beats paying bills.

    Shame on Newsweek for this article, and shame on slashdot for reposting it. It has no science in it at all, just gut feelings. Earthquakes do not "come in threes", as another very popular superstition tells us. The quakes in the Pacific are not connected to each other, and are only notable because they happened in such a dramatic way (destruction in Christchurch, destruction along 250 miles of Japanese coastline) in such a narrow (one month) time frame. Except remember that the latest earthquake in Christchurch was an aftershock of the bigger one that came in September, so the two events weren't really that close in time after all. The Pacific Rim is the most geologically active surface region on the planet, and the odds of having major earthquakes along the Ring of Fire in any given short time period is probably very high. Stop with the superstition.

    The author of the article was obviously blissfully unaware that the San Andreas fault is usually split into three or more shorter sections that have more potential to rupture. A rupture from Northern California to Baja California is incredibly unlikely, not to mention the thousands of other shorter faults that run parallel that are just as capable of producing 6.5 earthquakes, and there are myriad underground faults that are not even seen. The northern section ruptured in 1989. San Andreas has this great myth about it that drowns out all of the reality of the situation. Last year's Easter earthquake near El Centro was not along the San Andreas fault, yet produced a 7.2 quake at a shallow depth.

    And if Japan didn't expect a major subduction fault to be capable of a 9.0 earthquake, then they should go back to school. All of the major subduction zones on the globe are this powerful, including Cascadia, and have energy potentials well beyond what the rapidly-releasing San Andreas slip-strike is capable of. Combined with the fact that everyone focuses on moment magnitudes too much, and that a 7.0 directly under a major metropolitan area is going to be just as catastrophic as an offshore 9.0 (1000x more energy release).

    To correct another comment, while the moment magnitude scale is indeed logarithmic, it is not 10^1 per level, it's 10^1.5 (32x per level).

    It would be nice while our general population continues to avoid becoming science literate that our media could at least pick up the slack.

  49. Annoying homophone problem by istartedi · · Score: 1

    s/why/while

    I wonder if I'm getting senile, or if there is a spell checker going over my posts.

    --
    For all intensive purposes, "whom" is no longer a word. That begs the question, "who cares"?
  50. No doubt... by EmagGeek · · Score: 1

    There is no doubt a lot of government money that will now be thrown at whomever can scream "FUD" the loudest in the next few years...

  51. Chicago by Phoenix666 · · Score: 1

    I vote for Chicago to be next. Screw that place!

    --
    Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.
  52. California and Cascadia are "ripe" but uncertain by peter303 · · Score: 1

    The last great quake M8+ in the S.F. area was in 1906. Great quakes happen about every 150 years and we are 105 years past the last one. The last great great on the southern San Andreas was in 1857. Great quakes happen there about every 160 years and we are 153 years past the last one. The last great quake occured on Cascadia in 1700. Great quakes happen there about every 600 years and we are 310 years past the last one.

    Average recurrence is not clockwork. Great quakes repat in in as little as 1/3 the average period or as long as 3x the average period.

  53. Re:California and Cascadia are "ripe" but uncertai by mbkennel · · Score: 1

    There was a 7.0 earthquake in CA last Easter. The biggest damage was in Mexicali, MX.

  54. Can we get a Topical Hicks Reference Mod Up? by BancBoy · · Score: 1

    No points today, somebody hook this AC up.

    --
    [UID-HeinzIntel]
  55. Threats against humanity by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If you really want to be alarmist about disasters, you should be worried about other things than earthquakes. The most rational investments (not war, and not earthquake prevention) are these:

    1) Make sure we have the best possible drugs and technology for fighting microbes.
    2) Make sure our food supply is uninterrupted.

    An earthquake can devastate a region, yes. But diseases can wipe out large segments of humanity worldwide. And diseases can also wipe out our food supply.

    Look up what is happening to bananas, cocoa plants, citrus, and wheat. All of them are being wiped out by pathogens we can't really control yet. I think that most of these pathogens aren't spreading very fast, so we have time, but think what would happen if a rapidly spreading pathogen destroyed wheat production in a large area.

    A rational allocation of resources would put fighting disease and ensuring our food supply absolutely first, ahead of trillions on useless wars, and yes, ahead of earthquake prevention/mitigation. However, we allocate resources based on perceived threat rather than actual risk--how else is it that we are still using coal power, and spending trillions to fight terrorism that killed 3k of us in one single year when antibiotic resistant bugs kill 50k+ of us per year?

    That's right, folks, antibiotic resistant bugs inflict casualties on us at a rate of > FIFTEEN 9/11 scale attacks EVERY YEAR and the THREAT IS GROWING but WHERE ARE THE BILLIONS TO DEVELOP NEW ANTIBIOTICS????

    When it comes to allocating resources in proportion to risk, we are ABSOLUTE MORONS.

    --PeterM

    1. Re:Threats against humanity by Grishnakh · · Score: 1

      There's a few problems here unfortunately. For #2, it simply isn't possible to do this, because the population is growing too fast. At some point, there simply isn't going to be enough food for everyone. Even if we dedicated more land to farming (like rooftops or whatever), this requires freshwater, which is dwindling. There simply isn't anything that can be done about this problem; we just have to let it happen and suffer the consequences. Smart people will make sure their own food and water supply is safe, while letting everyone else get screwed. I imagine that in 50-100 years, China will be doing just fine, but will have a very strong immigration policy to protect their own, while not letting people from less-responsible countries come in to try to escape the horrors outside their borders, in countries where they never bothered to limit their population growth.

      Antibiotic-resistant bugs are a self-made problem. You don't need new antibiotics, because they'll just become ineffective too, just like the old ones did, as the bacteria adapt to them. It's a losing battle. The solution is to stop using antibiotics for everything, such as pumping livestock full of them even when they're not sick. Do you have any idea how much of the USA's antibiotic supply is consumed by livestock? As long as corporate profits are more important than anything else, this situation will not change (i.e., until it's way too late).

  56. Rationale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isn't it logical that if you change the stress dynamic in one part of the crust that this should affect the forces on other parts of the crust? Give it a little time for the compressibility or elasticity of a given system to propogate (after all, crust is not perfectly rigid) and why wouldn't you get greater seismic activity elsewhere after a particular region has "let go". Another thing not to forget is that between the US and Japan, NZ and Chilie there is a mid-ocean spreading centre which may also affect the translation of stress across the "Pacific plate". Due to the spreading zone can you even consider the Pacific plate to be the same entity from Japan to America?

  57. Re:California and Cascadia are "ripe" but uncertai by peter303 · · Score: 1

    That is a medium size quake. those happen every 5-10 years.

  58. Inglewood/Newport/Rose Canyon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And the nuclear plants will be fine. If you check, there were 4 power plants, each with multiple reactors, near the site of the Japanese 9.0 quake. All of those reactors shut down normally and survived the earthquake.

    Only one of those sites is having any trouble -- and it is only because an 8m tall wall of water topped their tsunami protection wall (it was designed to stop a 6m tsunami). The water knocked out their connection to the power grid, flooded their backup generators AND the backup backup generators. It also damaged many of the electrically driven pumps. Fukushima Dai-ichi is a rare case where, due to an essentially unforeseeable event, a single cause destroyed the primary power connection, primary cooling pumps and all of the backup systems simultaneously.

    You can be sure that once the situation in northern Japan is stabilized, changes will be made. Now that they know an 8m tsunami is possible they will upgrade all of the tsunami barriers over the next decade or two.

    They survived the earthquake, but would they survive a tsunamispecially if the ground gave way under the plants because both Diablo Canyon and San Onofre are at the edge of the Ocean? Everyone thinks about the San Andreas as the Boogyman of CA. The Long Beach earthquake of the 1930's was on the Inglewood/Newport/Rose Canyon fault. The epicenter was at the mouth of the Santa Ana River......no one thinks about that because the areas south of LA were not populated in 1933. Los Angeles was where there was damage, because it was where there were schools and businesses that failed (the death toll was low due to the time of the quake). The Inglewood/Newport/Rose Canyon fault runs from Long Beach to San Diego, practically tickling the toes of San Onofre.

    I didn't mention the fault zone near Diablo Canyon, because almost everyone knows about that problem. Plate tectonics was a new theory when these plants were built. Funny, but what you don't know can kill. Ignorance is not bliss.

  59. I ReadTFA ... paper quality important? by RockDoctor · · Score: 1
    This Newsweek magazine ; I recall seeing it on various airport newstands and the like. So, on the basis of this "report", the remaining important question is "do they print it on good-quality paper?"

    It's important to know if the paper holds together (particularly when wet), or whether you fingers go through it? Does the ink run and leave difficult-to-explain stains? Are the staples easy to remove?

    All of these factors affect whether the paper is any better than Gideon's (as supplied by shitty hotels the world around) arse-wipe paper.

    If this is the normal standard of Newsweek journalism, this is the only further information I need to know about Newsweek.

    (For those wishing to know, I AM a geologist, and the article under discussion is crap. It doesn't even make it up to the level of not even not even [sic] being wrong.)

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  60. Easter Sunday Earthquake of 2010 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I live in Southern California and last year on Easter Sunday we had a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. That was one of the longest shaking earthquakes we have had around here and caused a meter crack in some places in the eastern part of southern california. Its funny how that is not mentioned.

    http://7bends.com/2010/04/04/earthquake-rattles-baja-california/