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Android Passes BlackBerry In US Market Share

An anonymous reader writes "69.5 million people in the US owned smartphones during the three months ending in February 2011, up 13 percent from the preceding three-month period. For the first time, more Americans are using phones running Google's Android operating system than Research In Motion's BlackBerry, according to comScore. Having passed the iPhone in the preceding three-month period, this now means that Android has been crowned king in the US."

250 comments

  1. Surprised? by jhigh · · Score: 5, Informative

    Android is an operating system available on devices from numerous manufacturers. It was only a matter of time, given the level of control that both RIM and Apple maintain over the hardware that their operating system is available on.

    I'm a Droid user and a huge fan, but it is almost an unfair comparison. You're comparing an (relatively) open operating system with proprietary devices running proprietary software.

    --
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    1. Re:Surprised? by SomePgmr · · Score: 2

      True, and a model-to-model popularity study would have a very different lineup, but this is useful information on its own. I'd think particularly for anyone determining what platform to develop for. Though granted, it's not the only thing to consider.

    2. Re:Surprised? by Karlt1 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I think it might be better to consider that The Apple app market saw over 17x the sales of the Android Market last year.....
      http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20032012-37.html

    3. Re:Surprised? by fermion · · Score: 1
      As we are seeing, the openness has an upside and downside. The ability customize locally means ha i will run on various hardware, which means a phone can be made to meet a price point.OTOH,as google is discovering, this leads to products that the platform look low end.

      The success will have to be looked at long term. Will OEM stick with Android if they are not allowed to equally compete. WIll they tolerate Google choosing one favorite a season. WIll they risk getting sued by Google for misbehaving. The history, with MS and the PC, indicates they will. And they will sell lots of phone. But it will not be profitable to the OEM, and they phones will continue to not be designed for the end user.

      --
      "She's a scientist and a lesbian. She's not going to let it slide." Orphan Black
    4. Re:Surprised? by poetmatt · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Your comment makes no sense at all, and is a sidetrack to the issue.

      If we add up all the iphones and all the android phones, the answer is simple and straightforward: android is selling more, and the market has spoken. It doesn't matter if iphone creates 7 models or 100. It's still a "who sells the most of the major brand", and that has been answered. It's not MS, it's not apple, it's google.

    5. Re:Surprised? by Samantha+Wright · · Score: 1

      I like how we've gone from "well sure, proprietary products have an advantage in market share because there's so much money behind them" to "well sure, open products have an advantage because they're portable."

      Oh, those poor widdle proprietary products. Is the big nasty-wasty Slashdot editor being mean to you again, making unfair comparisons?

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    6. Re:Surprised? by poetmatt · · Score: 1

      Really, the fragmentation argument? The phones have been insanely profitable to OEM, have you looked at samsung and other companies profits reported? HTC is laughing all the way to the bank..

      OEM's are already competing, and have been competing. Openness has only upsides in the long term, and the only threat is a supposed patent threat which has not been proven in a single court case including the android vs oracle case.

    7. Re:Surprised? by ducomputergeek · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I saw it personally with a couple small apps I built and released for iPhone and Android. Despite more downloads of the free version on androids, over 85% of my sales were for iPhone. Given the time tweaking for the different versions of Android vs iOS, the apps I'm building this year are all for the iPhone.

      --
      "The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
    8. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't you need a Mac to develop iOS apps? Won't that result in more apps developed on Android in the future?

    9. Re:Surprised? by johnlcallaway · · Score: 3, Informative

      Better to consider .. what??? The story is pretty straight forward, more Android phones are being used than Apple phones. Which infers that more people are using them than are using Apple phones. Which infers that people prefer the Android phones (didn't say it was better, I said prefer) than Apple phones. I have all the apps I need on my Android, and no one has yet to show me an iPhone app that makes it worthwhile to switch. So the 'fact' the Apple app market sells more than the Android market doesn't mean anything to me. Except that iDrones have lots of excess cash to waste on apps that might even be free somewhere else.

      Android means choice, Apple is still the control-freak run company it always has been. Apple products have always appealed to those who just have to have the newest tech no matter what. Which means Apple products probably appeal to people with cash which means those people are probably willing to drop lots of bucks in the Apple store.

      It has always seemed like iDrones like having very little choice and doing what Apple says. I think doing any real thinking for themselves hurts too much.

      --
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    10. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I saw it personally with a couple small apps I built and released for iPhone and Android. Despite more downloads of the free version on androids, over 85% of my sales were for iPhone. Given the time tweaking for the different versions of Android vs iOS, the apps I'm building this year are all for the iPhone.

      The issue is, most developers follow that thought path. However, what I found is that the apps I want to pay for are better on iPhone. I don't want to pay the same price for fewer features, or pay more for the same features, just because I'm on Android. So, my options become paying them for an inferior product and reinforcing the practice.. or not buying the app.

    11. Re:Surprised? by BasilBrush · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Which infers that people prefer the Android phones (didn't say it was better, I said prefer) than Apple phones.

      People don't necessarily buy the product they prefer. Price is a consideration. And the vast number of cheap Android phones from many manufacturers explains the market share.

      So the 'fact' the Apple app market sells more than the Android market doesn't mean anything to me.

      Well maybe not. But it means everything to the developers. Which means most develop first for the iPhone, and then possibly port to Android.

      Android means choice

      Not of Apps it doesn't. iPhone has more and better choice of apps than Android for the reason stated above.

      It has always seemed like iDrones like having very little choice and doing what Apple says. I think doing any real thinking for themselves hurts too much.

      Hey whatever it takes to make you happy that you bought a cheap copy.

    12. Re:Surprised? by symbolset · · Score: 2

      Averaging the year as phone days, Apple had more. The growth rate is immense for Android, so the real install base didn't even show up until the middle of Q3. These numbers for 2011 will be very different.

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    13. Re:Surprised? by xenn · · Score: 1

      Explain how that affects the sale of services in your reality, please.

    14. Re:Surprised? by larry+bagina · · Score: 1

      $20 profit/phone. Maybe for small values of insane.

      --
      Do you even lift?

      These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.

    15. Re:Surprised? by metalmaster · · Score: 1

      Isnt Droid a heavily tweaked version of Android specifically for the HTC models commissioned by VZW?

    16. Re:Surprised? by rtaylor · · Score: 1

      A large number of the phones sold are for under $100.

      A 20% profit margin, on average, is pretty sizeable.

      --
      Rod Taylor
    17. Re:Surprised? by codepunk · · Score: 0

      You do know the reason the apps are inferior to the ones on the iphone are due to the android platform performance?

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    18. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Remind me again, was Android outselling Apple in the beginning of last year? Let's check the numbers in another year or two...

    19. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That makes absolutely no sense for a lot of the apps that are that way. Facebook is a prime example. I refuse to believe that performance is going to hurt it nearly that bad on Android that they can't make it on par with Apple's. Beyond that, I've used several apps that run counter to that theory, where there's no noticeable difference in speed between the two (in fact, some game comes to mind that seemed to run faster on my Thunderbolt than my friend's iPhone 4 a few days ago; mind you, I am overclocking quite high in that comparison, just to make a point to my ignorant friend that wouldn't know better anyway).

    20. Re:Surprised? by Karlt1 · · Score: 1

      If I were choosing to develop for a platform, why would I choose one with only 5% of the sales?

      People don't necessarily "prefer" Android. They prefer to stay with their own carrier. On AT&T where people had a choice between Android and iPhone, they chose the iPhone 14 to 1.

      Have you notice that Verizon completely dropped their Droid Does campaign as soon as they got the iPhone? Now if you go to Verizon's website, you see three categories of phones - iPhones, smart phones, and feature phones. They've relegate Android to the bargain bin.

    21. Re:Surprised? by jo_ham · · Score: 2

      You just made his point for him, unless you're claiming your own post makes no sense.

      Multiple manufacturers selling Android-based phones, vs one manufacturer selling the iPhone, in a market that has Blackberry's OS, iOS, Android and WP7 as the major operating systems.

      If Android was even half decent (ie, better than Blackberry and WP&, which it is), then it will overtake iPhone marketshare by eating into other smartphone maker's shares (and with new users coming on board).

      Both Android and iOS [in iPhone 4 guise only, ignoring iPad for now] are continuing to grow - the smartphone market as a whole is growing. It's hardly surprising, especially since you can get much cheaper Android phones than the iPhone (that are pretty naff to be honest, but you get what you pay for), as well as much nicer Android phones that are actually comparable to the iPhone 4.

      It's what happened to the PC industry, and Apple have had experience with that too. They're quite happy to keep shipping iPhones (and iPads) as fast as they can make them because they are remarkably profitable. They don;t have to be number one in marketshare to do that.

    22. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      heheh i have to post AC or i personally feel like i'll be lambasted, but as an ipad developer (salary: 90,000+) i echo your sentiment. I own a CRICKET phone because of cost of telcos.... but owning a tablet..

      Hell. Owning an iphone tablet is not even a contest. (and their new four-finger swipe between apps is a mind bender.... killer good move!)

    23. Re:Surprised? by crazycheetah · · Score: 1

      ... No.

      Droid is just a brand name, essentially, which Verizon licensed from LucasFilms to name some of their flagship Android phones (the Thunderbolt, for example, does not use the Droid name at all). And actually, there's more "Droid" Motorola phones than there are HTC. The Droid Incredible, Droid Eris, and the Droid Incredible 2 on its way are the only ones from HTC with the Droid name, where as Motorola has had Droid, Droid 2, Droid 2 Global, Droid X, and Droid Pro, with the Droid 3, Droid X 2, and Droid Bionic on their way.

      Motorola's phones (with the exception of the original Droid which ran vanilla Android) run Motoblur on top of Android, and the HTC ones all run Sense UI on top of Android. Motoblur and Sense UI are both tweaked to some degree, but that has nothing to do with the Droid name.

    24. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just wait till HP deploys WebOS on every device (phones, tablets, laptop, computers, printers) they make next year. This single move will crush these bullshit numbers about Android. One thing geeks need to realize is that normal users do NOT care about bootloaders and all the shit that is discussed on this board. They just want a device that does what they want without a hassle. That is why Blackberry was so big with corporate users, cause it could handle their Exchange mail period. Now they all can.

    25. Re:Surprised? by VortexCortex · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If I were choosing to develop for a platform, why would I choose one with only 5% of the sales?

      Actually... I was presented with the choice of developing our apps for Apple's Application Store, or Google's Android Marketplace. Not really liking the choice much we opted for the 3rd choice: Distribute the application ourselves and in one of the proprietary marketplaces. So, naturally the application will be an Android application.

      Granted, our applications are more specialized for use by noise abatement engineers, mapping problematic sources of noise via triangulation, overlaying 3D sound models in real-time (altered reality), etc.

      Our apps will be supplemental to our other products. We didn't want to spend time making the apps, then not be able to sell them for whatever reason. Our only real choice is Android OS.

      They've relegate Android to the bargain bin.

      Yes, that means our mobile applications will be available to more people. Also, why would a developer take so much pride in a platform brand? We don't make more money based on who sells the best phones -- We make more money based on how many people can access and purchase our apps...

      However, you must be able to see that sales alone is not the sole deciding factor when a developer decides which mobile platform to support... There are many factors, one of which is "Are we sure that we'll even be able to sell the app at all?" Android is the only smart-phone platform where the answer to this question is Yes.

    26. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So I buy an iPhone if I also want to have to spend a shitload of money on apps. Got it.

    27. Re:Surprised? by ch0knuti · · Score: 1

      Well you could say the same thing about IBM PC compatibles vs Apple computer around 20 years ago. Look at the PC market today :)

    28. Re:Surprised? by Karlt1 · · Score: 1

      So let's do a little probability calculation here.....

      Despite the big fuss that is made over Apple's rejections, let's say 1% of apps that follow the guidelines are rejected arbitrarily (an extremely high, unrealistic number). But app store sells are 1700% greater on the Apple store. Isn't it worth the risk?

      And do you think the people who are buying the buy one get one free are the most desirable demographic? It's already been shown that statistically, Android users don't buy apps.

    29. Re:Surprised? by Dutchmaan · · Score: 1

      Android is an operating system available on devices from numerous manufacturers. It was only a matter of time, given the level of control that both RIM and Apple maintain over the hardware that their operating system is available on.

      Not trying to start a flame war but it never stopped comparisons between Apple and MS operating systems. Granted Windows wasn't "open" but it's the same general comparison.

    30. Re:Surprised? by Malc · · Score: 1

      The question is: is Apple still taking more than 50% of the revenues of the smartphone market with less than 5% marketshare, as they were a few months ago? This story becomes interesting when Android starts taking significant revenue, although I doubt any individual manufacturer will be as profitable as Apple is at the moment.

    31. Re:Surprised? by bemymonkey · · Score: 1

      Even with the NDK? I doubt it, but please, prove it (or at least cite it)... :)

    32. Re:Surprised? by narcc · · Score: 1

      was Android outselling Apple in the beginning of last year?

      Not until November. RIM was outselling both Apple and Android at the beginning of last year. Last November, Android overtook Apple. This year, Android overtook RIM. Apple still hasn't passed RIM, even though RIM has lost about 5% market share, probably due to it's flat market share growth last year (something like 0.1%)

    33. Re:Surprised? by radio4fan · · Score: 3, Informative

      Hey whatever it takes to make you happy that you bought a cheap copy.

      Funny, as I've got an iPhone (3GS) and an Android phone (HTC Desire). I need both for testing mobile websites.

      The iPhone now gets used *solely* for testing websites.

      The Android phone is just better in most respects; gmaps/navigation, ability to play *any* video format, better reception (GSM and wifi), faster to navigate the UI (it's got a 'back' button!), vastly superior home screens and widgets, better battery life (and the option of a spare battery), better camera, bluetooth that's not intentionally crippled, SDcard support, hotspot that works out-of-the-box... Just better.

      All that goes to make me 'happy that I bought a cheap copy'.

      The iPhone wins hands-down on style and sound quality (holy shit the sound on the HTC is crap) but nothing else I can think of.

      I'm not an Apple-hater; I'm typing this on my MacBook and I've owned Macs for 20 years (SE/30 FTW!)

    34. Re:Surprised? by symbolset · · Score: 1

      This is only a survey so the accuracy may not be precise, though statiticians and Comscore might argue the sample is large enough to report these numbers with 95% confidence. This is not share of sales. This is share of phones in the field. It's only US installed base. In order to achieve 33% of the phones in the field from where they were before, Android has to be near or over half of phones sold in the spanned period. Let's crunch the numbers and see how that maths out:

      Growth of 13% to achieve 69.5M users is 8M net new users. Of those new users Google got 7M, or 87%, Apple got 2.1M, or 27%. And yes, that adds up to more than 8M and 100% because all other phone OS vendors actually lost users to Apple and Google. RIM and Palm both lost .5M each, and Microsoft lost .2M from par (not losing any users). There's an errant .1M in there from rounding. Android DID sell more than half of the phones in the period.

      The huge fail story is Palm, which is to be expected from a platform that was acquired by HP and its fate left uncertain the previous eight months. Palm actually lost twice as many users as could be expected if ALL expiring contracts selected a different OS and NO new users came in from another OS (i.e. they sold no phones). That basically means at least 212,000 people were paying termination fees to get away from Palm. It's the "customers are chewing their leg off to get away from us" story that adds up to millions in early termination fees and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of dead inventory taking up space on somebody's shelf and gathering dust in somebody's inventory. It's a lot of e-waste, though not as bad as the Kin story percentagewise. In corporate value this is probably more than a billion dollars loss that could have been avoided with some clear communications and a cogent transition strategy.

      RIM's performance with a net loss of over 500,000 customers comes as a bit of a shock. I thought their customers were more committed than that (though my company did switch from RIM to Android during the period and I love my new Epic). To keep up with market growth and maintain share RIM needed 2.6M new customers. They fell 3.1M customers short of that goal. But at least not many of their customers are chewing their leg off to get away from them. I expect RIM will embrace Android on their phones in some fashion shortly.

      Microsoft's performance over this holiday period and WP7 launch surprised me by how limited the damage was. I was expecting an echo of the Palm story here. If absolutely no new customers came in then of the 553,000 customers up for two-year renew only 183,000 or 1/3 abandoned them, and they sold 360,000 phones in the US in the quarter. Share was extremely negative, growth was negative, but at least they sold SOME phones. Perhaps Microsoft and Dell buying their employees WP7 phones skewed these numbers a wee bit.

      The message is clear: The only winners in smartphone OS during this 2010 holiday period are Android and Apple. They were driving 100% of the growth in smartphones and consuming their competitors markets at the same time. Android outperformed Apple in net new users over the holiday period nearly three to one. This is probably fine by Apple since they no doubt outperformed Google on Smartphone revenue by thirty to one, outgrew the market, and sold every single phone they could get manufactured. Neither Google nor Apple is taking anything from the other, and they're each winning big in their own way. Between them though, they're munching up what's left of their competitors.

      As a final note, in a field where growth is 5% or less and gains of share are 2% or less per quarter, Comscore's data presentation here makes sense. The US smartphone market share numbers are not that field. The presentation doesn't make clear the salient facts presented above, though if you analyze the numbers the information can be extracted.

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    35. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If I were choosing to develop for a platform, why would I choose one with only 5% of the sales?

      People don't necessarily "prefer" Android. They prefer to stay with their own carrier. On AT&T where people had a choice between Android and iPhone, they chose the iPhone 14 to 1.

      Have you notice that Verizon completely dropped their Droid Does campaign as soon as they got the iPhone? Now if you go to Verizon's website, you see three categories of phones - iPhones, smart phones, and feature phones. They've relegate Android to the bargain bin.

      This single carrier argument might seem like a good one from a US only perspective. But in most of Europe iPhone have been available from multiple carriers and unlocked, and is still overtaken by Android growth the same way as in US.

    36. Re:Surprised? by narcc · · Score: 1

      I had a lengthy reply written which Slashdot's incompetent message system destroyed. SLASHDOT: FIX YOUR CRAP WEBSITE.

      Anyhow, I refuse to go through that again so I'll make this one short.

      You're going to need to post your sources as I can't verify any of your numbers. The data I have doesn't match your figures in any way. It's not that they're just a little bit off -- they're completely different -- not even superficially similar.

    37. Re:Surprised? by sosume · · Score: 1

      Android devs earn cash on the ads, not the app sales.

    38. Re:Surprised? by narcc · · Score: 1

      I assume that "an extremely high, unrealistic number" applies to your 1700% figure as well.

      We do have some real data, which you can check out here. It turns out, that writing your app for BlackBerry can easily be more lucrative than for iOS or Android.

      Developers seem to forget that RIM isn't a distant third -- it's a close second. Add to that the higher visibility you get in AppWorld over other App stores and BlackBerry becomes a VERY difficult platform to ignore.

    39. Re:Surprised? by LordVader717 · · Score: 1

      That's all right if your only intention is selling lots of iDevices. But we're not talking about throw-away phones, we're talking about the long-term viability of a software platform. The more ubiquitous your platform is, the more attention it will grab from developers and consumers. If your customers OTOH get the feeling of being treated second-class they will opt for the more relevant platform, leading to smaller market share and further obscurity, thus setting a positive feedback in motion.

    40. Re:Surprised? by v1 · · Score: 1

      I had a lengthy reply written which Slashdot's incompetent message system destroyed. SLASHDOT: FIX YOUR CRAP WEBSITE.

      always always ALWAYS select-all-copy a lengthy post before clicking preview or submit.

      I learned that long ago and have had to invoke paste on at least a half a dozen occasions on various forums. It's not just here. Blame them, but share some of the blame for yourself.

      --
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    41. Re:Surprised? by PrimalChrome · · Score: 2

      Bullshit.

      I have some android apps that are low resource and very simple. Their interfaces are intuitive and polished. The problem is that many android apps are mostly functional, but lack any polish and the interfaces/documentation is abysmal. Putting that extra effort to make your software desirable makes a big difference in whether the average joe purchases the app. Apple and many of the App Store devs have realized that style sells as much as substance.

    42. Re:Surprised? by cronius · · Score: 1

      I can't see anyone else mentioning one important fact, so I'm wondering if people are not aware of it.

      For 2010, Apple took in $1.78 billion in worldwide sales from its App Store, a leap of 132 percent from $769 million in 2009. And while it lost market share to some of its mobile rivals, Apple still captured 82.7 percent of the app store market last year, down from 92.8 percent the prior year.

      Emphasize mine. From http://www.eurodroid.com/2010/09/android-market-expands-paid-app-support-32-countries-may-now-buy-apps/ :

      We have been hard at work on this and it is my pleasure to announce that effective today, developers from 20 more countries can now sell paid apps on Android Market.

      Emphasize mine. I live in Norway, and Android market sales here was effectively $0 until October 2010, because it wasn't available here until then.

      So while Android might have the largest world wide user base, it clearly did not have the largest world wide app market user base. I think that pretty much explains the low numbers, and therefore I expect 2011 to bring a radical change for Android Market sales.

      --
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    43. Re:Surprised? by cronius · · Score: 1

      Gah, I messed up the quote:

      We have been hard at work on this and it is my pleasure to announce that effective today, developers from 20 more countries can now sell paid apps on Android Market. Additionally, over the next 2 weeks, users in 18 additional countries will be able to purchase paid apps from Android Market.

      My point is that it's no wonder people aren't buying apps when they simple can't. But in October 2010 a lot of users across different countries were given access to buy apps, which should logically increase the app sale considerably in 2011 compared to 2010.

      --
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    44. Re:Surprised? by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      Bullshit.

      I have some android apps that are low resource and very simple. Their interfaces are intuitive and polished. The problem is that many android apps are mostly functional, but lack any polish and the interfaces/documentation is abysmal. Putting that extra effort to make your software desirable makes a big difference in whether the average joe purchases the app. Apple and many of the App Store devs have realized that style sells as much as substance.

      That's true, and is why any serious development organization will have user-interface designers and graphic artists numbered among their team members. GUI design is as much a specialty as any other aspect of software development. I have this to say to a lot of you devs out there: remember what Dirty Harry said? "A man's got to know his limitations." Most of you haven't the slightest idea of what makes an app smooth, polished, and a joy to use. That being the case ... hire some people that do.

      That said, there are some truly awesome Android apps, so it ain't the platform, boys and girls, it's the people factor. And given the size of the Android market, and the amount of money to be made, there's no question that we'll eventually see some maturity here as well. In a lot of ways Android and its app developers are still playing catchup, but Apple's lead won't last forever. There are lots of good development teams out there.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    45. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A friend of mine (he has an i4) and I (HTC Nexus One) were having dinner in a public restaurant, and I can't remember exactly why, but we both played a video file. Factoring in the loud background noise (it was busy at the time), the N1 was significantly louder and much more audible. In a quiet environment, the i4 sounded a nicer.

      More often then not, you're sacrificing one thing for another -- fidelity for volume in this case.

    46. Re:Surprised? by Rexdude · · Score: 1

      . Apple products have always appealed to those who just have to have the newest iProduct no matter what

      Apple wasn't ever about the technology. They consistently dumb things down and then polish them to appeal to the broad demographic. There's a rumor going round now that the iPhone 5 may have an 8mp camera sensor, when they're been around for years now on Nokia/SonyEricsson phones.

      --
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    47. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No problem. I am sure that an other developper will make an application which will be as good or better as yours and release it for free.
      Seriously, I never found any application worth paying for, either on iOS or Android.

    48. Re:Surprised? by symbolset · · Score: 1

      My source is TFA, and math.

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    49. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So why hasn't Linux taken over Windows and MacOS?

    50. Re:Surprised? by dwightk · · Score: 1

      seems easy enough for most developers

      --
      Like anyone can even know that
    51. Re:Surprised? by zuperduperman · · Score: 1

      If I were choosing to develop for a platform, why would I choose one with only 5% of the sales?

      It's interesting to see how people are clinging to old, out of date stats to defend the iOS platform.

      The 5% number is based on last year. So what you say? So Android grew something like 800% last year. The Android market went from somthing like 10,000 apps to 200,000 apps. The demographics of people buying them went from leading edge geeks to normal consumers. Compare the beginning of last year to the end and you'll have orders of magnitude difference in just about every single metric, and yet people like to average the whole year as if that's valid.

      Re: AT&T, they had not a single good Android phone and famously bad reception - no wonder Android users preferred different networks - unlike iPhone users in general, they had choice. We'll never know for sure but it seems quite likely AT&T were restricted from releasing good Android phones either internal choice or by some agreement with Apple. Now they have the Atrix and are changing their tune dramatically so we may well see some dramatic changes in Android adoption there.

    52. Re:Surprised? by mjwx · · Score: 1

      People don't necessarily buy the product they prefer. Price is a consideration.

      A lot of people simply want a phone for calls and text messages. Web is creeping in there a little, why would they spend $900 when a similar product will do it for $500?

      Not everyone actually wants an Iphone, in fact few people consider that a requirement.

      And the vast number of cheap Android phones from many manufacturers explains the market share.

      Actually most devices are high end, Samsung Galaxy S and the HTC Desire range (Desire\HD\Z) make up over 60% of the phones sold.

      Sorry if that doesn't jive with your view on Android. But in your defence, Android high end devices are cheaper ($5-700) then the entry level iDevices ($900+). I bought my HTC Desire Z outright for A$550.

      Well maybe not. But it means everything to the developers

      But it means everything to the customers. Customers make purchasing decisions. It should stand to note that Angry Birds, everyone's favourite yard stick is making more per month with it's free Android offering then it's paid for IOS offering.

      Developers are known for cutting off their nose despite their face. If they choose to ignore the fastest growing platform then they do so at their own peril. Not like there is a shortage of developers at the moment.

      Not of Apps it doesn't. iPhone has more and better choice of apps than Android for the reason stated above.

      Kindly point out the alternate email clients in the Apple store. Same with the alternate browsers (complete with their own engine) or the tethering programs. Widgets for your home screens?

      There may be more applications for Apple, but there is by far more choice on Android. Android does far more then IOS out of the box, the fact is it's been two years and Apple is still playing catchup with Android 1.1 on features.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    53. Re:Surprised? by mjwx · · Score: 1

      People in the US don't necessarily "prefer" Android. They are forced to to stay with their own carrier.

      TFTFY.

      In Europe, Asia and Australia I can take my unlocked phone to most carriers in these three regions.

      They've relegate Android to the bargain bin.

      I'd do a fact check if I were you. HTC thunderbolt is outselling Iphones at 28% of Verizon stores, Iphones are outselling Android at a mere 11%.

      Then you've got Europe and Asia were Iphones are pretty well under represented.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    54. Re:Surprised? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait. Are you serious?!

      From your link:

      "Net profits rose to New Taiwan dollars 14.59bn ($500m; £315m) on the back of NT$104bn sales.

      The company sold 24.6 million phones last year, more than double the 2009 figure."

      $500m is "laughing all the way to the bank?" Again: Are you serious?

      Apple, to put this in perspective, sold 16.24m iPhones during the same quarter. Now, the margin on the iPhone is somewhere between 55%-60%. So, I'll let you do the math. But compared to $500m? Apple could accidentally drop that down the sewer, and not even know it's gone. They have well over $60b in cash right now. By the end of Fiscal Year 2011, that number will be around $100b (barring some large acquisition).

      I'm sorry, but I'm not "awed" by a $500m profit.

    55. Re:Surprised? by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

      Actually most devices are high end...Android high end devices are cheaper ($5-700) then the entry level iDevices ($900+). I bought my HTC Desire Z outright for A$550.

      Thanks for illustrating my point.

      It should stand to note that Angry Birds, everyone's favourite yard stick is making more per month with it's free Android offering then it's paid for IOS offering.

      Overall app downloads for Android are approx 1/20th of app sales for iPhone. Obviously sales are greater on iPhone, but also, perhaps surprisingly, free downloads are also greater on iPhone.

      I don't know specifically about Angry Birds. But they recently released Angry Birds Rio on Android and it's only free for a promotional period. Then they revert to the paid model. So it seems they don't regard the ad-supported model quite as positively as you suggest.

      Indeed the reasons Rovio quoted for being ad-supported in the first place were negative - there was no paid app store for many countries, and due to fragmentation they felt they didn't want the support nightmare of a paid release on Android.

      Either way, Angry Birds is an exceptional app. One of (or possibly the) best selling one. You can't generalise to all apps from it.

      Developers are known for cutting off their nose despite their face. If they choose to ignore the fastest growing platform then they do so at their own peril.

      Whilst Android OS is approaching iOS in device market share, Android is by far the smaller market for apps. And selling apps is far easier on the iOS platform. It's the place to be right now. That might change in the future. But right now, most developers rightly prefer iOS.

      Kindly point out the alternate email clients in the Apple store.

      You didn't actually look, did you? There are hundreds of email apps on iTunes. The first 3 that come up in a search: mailPro, AltaMail, Quicksend.

      Now as interesting as your cherry picking is, the flip side of the coin is that apart from these few apps categories that are restricted, every other category of app is far better served on iOS than Android. Takes games for example. There are far more games on iOS and the must have games invariably appear there. Sometimes they get ported later to Android. Mostly not.

      the fact is it's been two years and Apple is still playing catchup with Android 1.1 on features.

      That's not a fact, that's your assertion. And not a particularly worthwhile one. Idiots buy on the basis of length of feature lists. "Oh look, my hammer has a built in flashlight and screwdriver bit." Shame the shaft is made of steel rather than wood - your wrist is going to hate you for it.

      Sensible people buy on quality of user experience. And that's always been better on iOS.

    56. Re:Surprised? by Karlt1 · · Score: 1

      I assume that "an extremely high, unrealistic number" applies to your 1700% figure as well.

      The 1700% comes directly from the IHS study.

      I assume that "an extremely high, unrealistic number" applies to your 1700% figure as well.

      We do have some real data, which you can check out here. It turns out, that writing your app for BlackBerry can easily be more lucrative than for iOS or Android.

      And it still shows that Android is a less desirable platform....

    57. Re:Surprised? by narcc · · Score: 1

      Er, no. That figure isn't sales, it's revenue.

      On revenue, arguably the most interesting number, you'll find that apps net 41% MORE on App World than iTunes.

      And it still shows that Android is a less desirable platform...

      Who said anything about Android? My point was that it's likely more lucrative to develop for BlackBerry, given the data.

    58. Re:Surprised? by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

      Saw this, and remembered your recent comment:

      Speaking of Android, you're probably wondering why there's no showstopper like Infinity Blade for the platform. Well, wonder no more. Says Sweeney, "When a consumer gets the phone and they wanna play a game that uses our technology, it's got to be a consistent experience, and we can't guarantee that [on Android]. That's what held us off of Android." The problem with Android is consistency. "If you took the underlying NGP hardware and shipped Android on it, you'd find far far less performance on Android. Let's say you took an NGP phone and made four versions of it. Each one would give you a different amount of memory and performance based on the crap [the carriers] put on their phone." Bottom line, for Epic to do the kinds of things they do on iOS, "Google needs to be a little more evil. They need to be far more controlling." Even so, the main reason Epic has focused on iOS? "It's really the best place to make money."

      http://gizmodo.com/#!5789093/the-near+future-of-mobile-gaming-is-going-to-be-pretty-epic

  2. Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Wake me up in six months, when the implications of Google's recent policy changes have been realized.

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    1. Re:Yawn. by MrDoh! · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm wondering if this will only help actually.
      Where else are the phone makers going to get an OS/that many apps quick enough to compete with Apple?
      And if they don't like to be told the interface, they going to go to Microsoft that's even more restrictive?

      Don't know. Still too early to tell, but I don't think it'll be as doom and gloom as some are saying.

      --
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    2. Re:Yawn. by bogaboga · · Score: 1

      Wake me up in six months...

      So you're sleeping or hibernating? Anyway, it's just a joke. Here's what I wanted to say.
      Remember that the majority of Android phone buyers do not care what OS it runs. All they want is a phone of great value or from a particular OEM.

      I personally, will avoid Motorola no matter what phone they develop, and will seek out HTC or Samsung whenever I can. What OS will come with the phone I choose will be a question I ask just before I pay.

      That's me and I an not a lone.

    3. Re:Yawn. by eparker05 · · Score: 3, Informative

      I assume you are referring to the continued feet dragging with the Honeycomb source.

      I would like to start by saying that many of the people complaining about this are people with little knowledge of the Android development cycle. For starters, the newest version of Android is always released closed source so that Open Handset Alliance partners get premium access. Eventually the versions are all released under the Apache license. The only difference between Honeycomb and previous versions is that Google is slowing down the release a bit. They have not reversed their commitment to open source it, they just delayed it.

      One of the most common complaints about Android is the fragmentation. This is one way that Google can slowly rein this in. If they are completely closed the source and locked the platform they will be much more like Apple. If they are completely open it will be more like Linux (Android distributions anybody?). It is in the middle ground where they can be both a little open, yet still control the platform and keep quality and homogeneity high.

    4. Re:Yawn. by RobbieCrash · · Score: 1

      Which changes that Google has made are going to make people more reluctant to buy Android handsets? The policy changes that say that manufacturers have to supply updates in a timely manner? That you have to allow people to remove the garbage that carriers/manufacturers preinstall and make unremovable without rooting?

      Yeah, the changes are bad for end users.

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    5. Re:Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      People can only buy products that make it to market. If the restrictions reduce the number of handsets, or increase the costs, Apple and RIM's offerings could be more appealing.

    6. Re:Yawn. by larry+bagina · · Score: 1

      Phone makers have been happy to sell ancient versions of Android and never delivering on upgrades. The /. crowd might care which version they're running, but most people don't seem to. Maybe they'll just stick with 2.3 (or 2.2 or even 2.1) + extra crap.

      --
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      These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.

    7. Re:Yawn. by cynyr · · Score: 1

      Also hasn't google been saying that Honeycomb will be a tablet only(officially) version? If I am remembering that correctly, i'm not sure how the 3.0 stuff has much to do with with this discussion.

      We already have a community distribution of android, CyanogenMOD. As for fragmentation it's more that there hasn't really been much in the way of a "screen shall be X by Y resolution, and the CPU shall be xxx speed ARM or equivalent." Thats about all they are doing now, is setting the hardware minimum higher than they have in the past. I haven't seen anything to the effect of "Handset will be made on nothing less than 24k gold, and the belly button lint of Steve jobs"

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    8. Re:Yawn. by alvinrod · · Score: 1

      Sorry, but you can't be completely open and completely without fragmentation. Look at Linux. There's fragmentation, or if you want to look at it another way, diversity and choice. Some people want to use Gentoo; others, Ubuntu. You can't have it both ways. Open is accepting that some people won't agree with your decisions and letting them take what you've done and build their own solution.

      If Google wants to be open they need to actually be open. Otherwise they'll end up being supplanted by something like MeeGo, which is actually open. Alternatively, anyone can fork existing versions of Android and make a more open version that's not dependent on one entity. I wouldn't classify Android as closed, but it's certainly not open. Exactly what shade of gray it is, I'm not sure.

    9. Re:Yawn. by hedwards · · Score: 1

      True, but there's way too much money in the Android market for the products to dry up that much. I'd be surprised if it ever drops below 10 or so handsets without Google deliberately burning down the OS or hiring a soft drink exec to run the project.

    10. Re:Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also hasn't google been saying that Honeycomb will be a tablet only(officially) version?

      Exactly. When I read their statement, what I got from it was "If we release Honycomb, a bunch of people are going to go out, get a ROM, and load it onto their Android phones. Then it will suck, since those phones won't be able to run it worth a damn, and everybody is going to shit themselves about how horrible Honycomb is an an OS. So we're going to keep it close to the chest until we have the next version which is targeted at phones, that way people will rush out and install that instead of Honycomb."

      I could be misreading that, but there it is, FWIW.

    11. Re:Yawn. by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      Phone makers have been happy to sell ancient versions of Android and never delivering on upgrades. The /. crowd might care which version they're running, but most people don't seem to. Maybe they'll just stick with 2.3 (or 2.2 or even 2.1) + extra crap.

      Only because they don't know better. I've put Cyanogenmod on a number of devices for friends and family, and they all immediately noticed the difference, and won't go back to the stock stuff. Hell, when Cyanogenmod RC2 came out, he had a 150,000 downloads the first night (he's on RC4 now, so I'm expecting the Final in a couple of weeks.) But even his nightly builds blow away the stock firmware in terms of overall stability and performance.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    12. Re:Yawn. by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      I personally, will avoid Motorola no matter what phone they develop

      I tend to agree. I feel about Motorola about the same way I feel about Sony ... I don't trust them not to screw me over. I've had a couple of HTC Android phones so far, and while I did have to root them the process wasn't difficult (they couldn't certainly have made it harder!) and I've been able to run the third-party ROM of my choice. Contrast that to Motorola's stance that they won't allow anything but their provided Android version. Screw them.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    13. Re:Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      That's sort of what I'm getting at. Right now, buying an Android phone doesn't necessarily mean anything. Your hardware specs might prevent your favorite app from running, or it may not be upgradable to the latest revision. Android is not Android is not Android. Once the lock-down has been in effect a little while, and once phone makers and carriers have to meet additional (hardware spec, upgradeability, etc) metrics to license the Android brand name, maybe limiting Android to two or three premium hardware vendors, then if their numbers exceed those of the iPhone or BBY installations, I'll be impressed.

      I'm not saying it's unlikely, but with a free, fractured and fscked up ecosystem, talking about Android adoption levels with any level of pride would be like talking about, oh, what batteries are most common in phones. Woo hoo! Sony lithium polymer! Who cares?

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    14. Re:Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      I never suggested that the changes are bad for end user. What I was saying, actually, is that these sorts of market numbers will mean a lot more if (when?) they hold up for new device sales under the more restrictive rules.

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    15. Re:Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      There's a possibility of that happening, but I have a feeling that Android has enough momentum that this lock-down will lead to more adoption in the long run. It may slow things down temporarily because of a less diverse range of hardware offerings, but if you have three makers whose buyers are anywhere near as loyal as iPhone owners tend to be, it'll mean lots and lots of repeat sales every couple of years.

      What smart phone owner is going to buy a WP7 or BBY device these days? Someone who loves their current phone and depends on the apps that they've got installed? Or someone who sees their device as a commodity that is uncannily similar but distressingly different other devices bearing the same OS? I think the new restrictions from Google--delayed release to the unwashed masses, tighter hardware restrictions--will help remove or at least minimize that uncanny valley between the various Android phones.

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    16. Re:Yawn. by TheReal_sabret00the · · Score: 1

      Isn't the problem here that Android aspires to be more like Windows than Linux?

    17. Re:Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      Remember that the majority of Android phone buyers do not care what OS it runs. All they want is a phone of great value or from a particular OEM.

      Absolutely true. But people get turned off if they see a friend's phone running something that they can't run. "But my phone is Android, too!" "Well, you have to upgrade. We can root it, and then do this and that..."

      Most people don't want to deal with that BS. Again, I think that the increased restrictions will have the effect of improving the intra-manufacturer Android experience, and while it may slow Android's explosive growth, it'll make for greater long term success.

      Of course, don't forget, Google doesn't care, really, if Android beats the iPhone. The whole point was to put the web (and thus web advertisements) in people's hands. Every new, fast mobile device that Apple (or HTC or Samsung or Nokia) releases which allows for easy browsing of the web, which supports web standards, and especially those that allow users to choose Google as a default search engine, helps Google's bottom line.

      The brilliance of Android is not that it's better than iOS or WP7 or anything else. That's arguable, of course, but the real brilliance is that it quickly took the phone-as-handheld-computer market that Apple was pumping up with the iPhone and made it explode beyond what anyone was imagining just a few years ago.

      Don't worry, I don't think that Apple invented the market, but to use a TV metaphor, Palm wrote the Pilot, Apple put it in prime time, and Android took it to syndication. All important steps, and all the survivors are going to benefit from the competition that put touch-screen computers in our pockets.

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      The CB App. What's your 20?
    18. Re:Yawn. by RobbieCrash · · Score: 1

      Not only that, but if all Android devices that do come to market are ones that people know will be supported for more than a week, people will be more likely to purchase said products. Personally, I'd be willing to lift my self-imposed Motorola product ban if I knew that they played by the above rules, and ideally offered an unlocked bootloader.

      Even with these new restrictions, manufacturers are still able to differentiate, and customize Android as much as they want. They just need to make sure their addons stick to documented API specifications, which from my understanding haven't had significant removals since 2.1, so they can be quickly upgraded to use the latest version of Android, and can be disabled. Neither of these two things are extremely complex, from my understanding.

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    19. Re:Yawn. by RobbieCrash · · Score: 1

      Ahh, I redirect the vitriol then.

      --
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    20. Re:Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      If you consider your previous comment to be vitriol, then you are truly a calm and pleasant person. While I feel your argument was based on an inference that I did not--or at least did not mean to--imply and was thus misdirected, your points were clear, simply stated and free of the ad hominem which so often accompanies these discussions.

      I'll take your 'vitriol' over many others' 'reasoned arguments' any day, friend.

      --
      The CB App. What's your 20?
    21. Re:Yawn. by RobbieCrash · · Score: 1

      The first draft was full of calling you an idiot and babbling about how dumb you are and are a big fat poopy butt, I assure you.

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    22. Re:Yawn. by mjwx · · Score: 1

      It is in the middle ground where they can be both a little open, yet still control the platform and keep quality and homogeneity high.

      Another reason which is probably just as important is that Honeycomb is designed for tablets, releasing the source will ensure it gets ported to phones. What Google is planning to do is combine to two (honeycomb is a fork, at least as far as the UI is concerned) with Android 2.4 (Ice cream)

      --
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    23. Re:Yawn. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      Trust me, my response went through a few drafts as well.

      --
      The CB App. What's your 20?
  3. Re:fuck yeah by rainmouse · · Score: 0, Redundant

    Who's up for a game of spot the fanboy? From either side of the fence.

  4. Africa by WML+MUNSON · · Score: 1

    IIRC, the same thing recently happened in Africa.

  5. bouncing around by Hazel+Bergeron · · Score: 1

    The fact that people so quickly bounce from Blackberry to iPhone to Android in business suggests to me that they use their 'phones for very little real work. I wonder if one day we'll return to, say, 15 years ago, when people had a much better chance to get hard work done (and rest outside hours) without a million devices to interrupt them.

    1. Re:bouncing around by Darkness404 · · Score: 2

      ....Or it could be that the vast majority of applications and features that people use to get work done are cross platform. You can get e-mail on Blackberry, iPhone and Android. You can make calls on Blackberry, iPhone and Android. You can access webpages on Blackberry, iPhone and Android. And really, those three things is all most people need to get work done. So of course people are going to have different preferences and change phone models.

      --
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    2. Re:bouncing around by iserlohn · · Score: 1

      You underestimate the amount of momentum in the smartphone market. As with MS software in the 90's and early 00's, you have platform lock-in due to third party apps. With i(phone/pad)OS and Android, you have the same in the AppStore/Market. This is significant and users will be unwilling to change platforms if most of their software investment is in a particular platform.

    3. Re:bouncing around by amiga3D · · Score: 2

      It doesn't look as if people are bouncing from iPhone to Android but rather from Palm and Microsoft and Blackberry to Android. Apple's numbers flattened out a lot but they still had a slight climb whereas Android seems to be killing RIM, MS and Palm.

    4. Re:bouncing around by moderatorrater · · Score: 1

      This is anecdotal, but it seems to me that what happened is that the iPhone kicked the door open for non-Blackberry devices by getting the devices into enough people high enough into the company that they had to start supporting them. Then, once you're supporting iPhones, the jump to supporting androids is much smaller.

    5. Re:bouncing around by cynyr · · Score: 1

      I thought all of the major platforms had angry birds now....

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      All of the above was encrypted with a Quad ROT-13 method. Unauthorized decryption is in violation of the DMCA.
    6. Re:bouncing around by iserlohn · · Score: 1

      If you bought an app on Android Market, does it appear on your iphone App Store? No.

      But it appears on every Android device that is tied to your google account.....

    7. Re:bouncing around by LordVader717 · · Score: 1

      They haven't bounced at all. Most new customers to a platform are probably from growth in the smartphone market.

      To put it in anecdotal terms: I only knew a handful of people with Nokia and blackberry smartphones. When the iPhone came out people who I wouldn't have considered likely smartphone customers became interested, and similarly the Andoid phone from HTC and Samsung seem to have convinced a few more people. I've never met anyone who gave up their business smartphone for an iPhone, and the people with iPhones haven't switched that easily either.

    8. Re:bouncing around by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      With phone apps being worth so little compared to pc software i would think that the reasons for users staying with one smartphone os would weigh more heavily on not having to learn something new.

  6. This is a no-brainer. by pro151 · · Score: 1, Interesting

    Google knew what they were doing when they developed the android platform and even more so when they made it as open as they did. I am a broken record when it comes to Google and Android and make no apology for being so. I have never failed to get timely responses from Google support and excellent answers as far as I am concerned. RIM has lost sight of the game when it comes to smart phones and will fade fast if they do not get their head out of their rear. Google is Skynet and I am an Andriod Borg. Microslop and the Rotten Apple should be afraid, very afraid.

    1. Re:This is a no-brainer. by Darkness404 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The reason why Blackberry is losing marketshare is because Android is taking over Blackberry's non-key markets. A lot of people used to have Blackberries because they were the cheapest smartphone you could get. If you were with Sprint or Verizon and didn't want to get a Windows Mobile smartphone, BlackBerry was your only option until Android really took over. And even on T-Mobile and AT&T, a Blackberry cost a lot less than a G1 or iPhone.

      Really, RIM made Blackberries for people who use their enterprise system, and for corporate people who check their e-mail every 5 seconds, and not as the general purpose smartphones that Android and iOS devices are. So when Android started gaining marketshare, it made sense for the people who simply got a Blackberry because it was cheap and had a Facebook app and a browser to migrate to Android.

      --
      Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
    2. Re:This is a no-brainer. by sarhjinian · · Score: 1

      This is a salient point. Android is eating RIM's non-enterprise market; where the phone of choice used to be a WM or nonpremium BlackBerry, now it's a year-old and/or bottom-grade Android phone.

      Android, out of the box, has nothing even close to Exchange's mobile policy, let alone what BES can offer. Even iPhones implement some of it. Android requires bolt-on software, at a premium, in order to supply a very poor equivalent. This isn't saying that it won't, some day, but Google et al aren't showing interest; it also doesn't mean that Android won't get in "through the backdoor" through the demands of VIPs, but that's unlikely given that the iPhone is still the fashionable choice and the top-end BlackBerry is no longer lame.

      --
      --srj/mmv
    3. Re:This is a no-brainer. by cynyr · · Score: 1

      hmm? i hooked my android phone up to my work e-mail without any more work than it took to set up outlook. I seem to have most/all of the same features outlook has as well. Granted I use very few of the advanced exchange features, heck he hardly use the calendar for meetings at work.

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    4. Re:This is a no-brainer. by narcc · · Score: 1

      A lot of people used to have Blackberries because they were the cheapest smartphone you could get.

      Not really. Until recently, Blackberry was a status symbol, not the low-end option. (BB was cool, Treo was not.) It was also virtually the only player in the smartphone market. (Much like the iPad was late last year in the tablet market.)

      After Apple made it "okay" for the rest of the world to carry smartphones, the whole market changed. While it's true that RIM offers lower-end smartphones for the masses now (Curve, Style), that wasn't really the case just a few years ago as your post seems to imply.

    5. Re:This is a no-brainer. by hedwards · · Score: 0

      I don't think that's entirely accurate. Android inc., was founded in 2003 and Google bought it in 2005. The first Apple iPhone wasn't released until 2007. So, perhaps Apple did open it up a bit for Google and everybody else, but the door was coming down, it was mostly just a question of who was going to do it first.

    6. Re:This is a no-brainer. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yep, businesses love having all their BB data routed overseas.

    7. Re:This is a no-brainer. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The enterprise used Rim because at the time it was the easiest solution to manage and it worked. At the enterprise I work at (a top 20 international law firm), we can't wait to finally put all of these BES servers and its associated infrastructure to rest and start using MS exchange native tools. I'm sure we are not alone in this.

      With Rim fighting it every step of the way, the glory days of the BES server are coming to an end. Once that happens, rim will be playing on an even playing field with all of the other smartphones and based on the phones I've sampled recently from them, it won't be good for them.

    8. Re:This is a no-brainer. by PipsqueakOnAP133 · · Score: 2

      Android didn't start out as the phone you see now. In fact, the early SDK resulted in something that looked like a Blackberry/WinMo clone. Quickly after iPhone, Android was being redesigned to mimic the iPhone. Having Google execs cancel the Kogan Agora sealed the fate of the old form factor.

      Manufacturers only started jumping on the Android bandwagon after seeing the iPhone's success, their own smartphone failures, and that Google bought Android to provide them a platform.

      We'll never find out what would have happened without the iPhone, but I'm not sure that Android would have gained manufacturer support had Google not bought it. And I'm not sure Google would have bought it on their own.

    9. Re:This is a no-brainer. by iserlohn · · Score: 1

      Froyo and Gingerbread devices support Activesync policies. Looking at the corporate world, I'm seeing several large multinationals move off of BES and Blackberries to alternative platforms, and that Android (especially HTC, as they are more recent with Android releases which mean better Exchange support) is the clear winner in all of these cases with the phones on order.

      OTOH, the consultancy that I work for recently moved off legacy Exchange infrastructure onto Google Apps. This means even better integration with our Android phones.

    10. Re:This is a no-brainer. by hedwards · · Score: 1

      Google bought Android years before Apple releasing the iPhone, which kind of shoots that hypothesis down. And Android Inc., was specifically founded to work on making mobile devices smarter, which kind of shoot down that idea.

      It's definitely possible that manufacturers wouldn't have jumped on board without the iPhone, but the rest of your suggestions are definitely incorrect.

  7. not yet by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    techcrunch: iOS of my beloved apple is not yet king

    mg siegler

  8. It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This is all just a rehash of the PC industry during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Back then, Apple had their proprietary hardware and software stack, and it did achieve a relatively high level of popularity, at least initially. There were other smaller players, like Amiga, Commodore and Tandy back then, and RIM and Nokia today, who offered their own platforms.

    Android is best compared to MS-DOS, oddly enough. It was about being a flexible OS that ran on a wide range of hardware from a wide range of vendors, and in many ways it maximized the freedom of developers and users alike. It did very little to dictate how programs could be implemented, who may use them, and how they may be distributed.

    We all know what happened. The most open of the platforms prevailed, and the rest were basically crushed into obscurity. Most went completely out of business. Apple, by far the strongest of them, only barely managed to survive the rest of the 1980s and early 1990s.

    I suspect that the same thing might be happening today. Although not the first, Apple took a commanding lead within the market. But facing competition from more open hardware and software, they don't have a hope in hell of surviving in the long run. It remains to be seen what will happen with Jobs in the near future, but if he departs from Apple for whatever reason, it's likely that they'll face yet another dark period like that between 1987 and 1999.

  9. Re:Look at that! by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 3, Insightful

    While I love open source it's because there's a zillion phones that run android. I suspect if you compare any one Android model against RIM or Apple's offerings then it won't look so good. Combine that with the fact Android owners seem less keen on paying for apps and I think you end up with the iphone or even blackberry being more attractive to a developer despite android's growth.

  10. Android and the common human by errandum · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What people miss is that most of those 30ish % are from low end devices. Those devices are mostly crap and give out a bad impression about the OS.

    I'm not too confident that android growth will be as big in the following years. Google should set up some minimum specs for Android phones!

    (I'm the proud owner of an HTC Desire, so I'm not bashing. Just stating something that has been on my mind lately..)

    1. Re:Android and the common human by bogaboga · · Score: 1

      (I'm the proud owner of an HTC Desire, so I'm not bashing. Just stating something that has been on my mind lately..)

      Have you had chance to compare that phone to another Android phone? What are your impressions?

    2. Re:Android and the common human by errandum · · Score: 1

      I compared it to more than one phone actually.

      If flows better than the Samsung galaxy S phone, but has a worse screen (not by much)

      I compared it to a multitude of low end phones (very common in Portugal), the HTC Magic, the Wildfire, one Acer, one low-end Samsung.

      Every one of them seemed slugish and missed some important features. The problem is, I read how "Android sucks" all the time, and most people change their mine after using my phone.

      Mostly, they love the Sense UI that is missing on their phones.

      But keep in mind that if you buy them carrier free a top-of-the line Android phone will still cost around 70-80% of an iPhone, so they are good value.

  11. Sure, better for somebody... by pem · · Score: 1

    but not necessarily the consumer.

  12. PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 4, Insightful

    We all know what happened. The most open of the platforms prevailed

    This is true among home computers. But whether the smartphone market shapes up to be like the home computer market (where open won) or the set-top video gaming market (where closed won) hasn't entirely been decided. Android is in the lead now, but I'm not sure how much of that comes from people avoiding the iPhone to avoid AT&T. This can change as more Verizon Wireless contracts hit their 24th month, and it can also change come iPhone 5 and Sony NGP. But on the other hand, Apple doesn't have a low-end phone for use with prepaid service, unlike Sprint's Virgin Mobile USA which has a few Android phones now, and Apple has historically chosen not to compete in the extreme low-end.

    1. Re:PC world or video game console world? by cynyr · · Score: 4, Insightful

      My bet is sadly on the closed one winning. Most people view phones* as appliances and as such they should just work.

      *I keep thinking of mine as a mini-laptop, but that still makes me a bit grumpy as i'd like to be able to script it, and tinker with it even more than CyanogenMOD will let me.

      --
      All of the above was encrypted with a Quad ROT-13 method. Unauthorized decryption is in violation of the DMCA.
    2. Re:PC world or video game console world? by by+(1706743) · · Score: 2, Insightful

      My bet is sadly on the closed one winning. Most people view phones* as appliances and as such they should just work.

      I think that's a very accurate assessment (though I don't even have a smart phone). I'm all for toys and openness; I cut my teeth on Slackware (using Debian currently), don't take my car to the mechanic for trivial stuff, fix my audio gear myself (picked up a Dyna ST-70 for free a while back...score!) etc. But I can see a day when I'll want a system -- be it an entertainment system, a car or a smartphone -- that "just works." And sadly, this is more easily achieved when a single manufacturer controls the hardware.

      I'll probably get modded into oblivion because I'm pointing out the good side of a controlling company, but that's just my opinion. (And for the record, I think Apple's being ridiculous in the limiting-what-you-can-run department. I think it would make the most sense to have "Apple Approved" apps, and a free-for-all. If you want something that Just Works (and, if Apple did their job reviewing it, isn't malware), then stick to the official app store. Else, well, eat your heart out.)

    3. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As much as I am a geek, and all for open-source software, I would lump myself in the category your talking about. To me, my phone is not my laptop, and shouldn't be compared to one. I need to be able to make calls/text from it, and it needs to be able to do that perfectly without hiccups. I have seen far more issues with that with android than with blackberry (I have no experience with iphones) If I want to be able to do anything more, I will just whip my laptop out. Have there been situations where I wish I could have done something more with my phone, or where I wasn't able to just whip my laptop out? Yes. How often though, maybe twice a year.

    4. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Americium · · Score: 1

      Well the PC world profits on hardware sales, so it makes sense to allow any software to run. The console world loses money on hardware sales initially, and makes it all up with software sales. Also, since open source video games barely exist, 99% of the content needs DRM protection and cost money, it makes sense to be closed. Since a large part of the market was aimed at kids, parents prefer purchasing closed systems.

      So since the iPhone isn't marketed at kids, and doesn't give you a cheap price on the hardware, it can't win. If the iPhone was sold for a big loss, it may have a better chance, and could find a place to stay in certain demographics.

    5. Re:PC world or video game console world? by unity100 · · Score: 2

      But whether the smartphone market shapes up to be like the home computer market (where open won) or the set-top video gaming market (where closed won) hasn't entirely been decided

      'hasnt been decided' ?

      man. it is the way human social dynamics work - the easiest, most accommodating, most open gets adopted eventually. EVERYthing after this mobile thing will unfold in the exact same way.

    6. Re:PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 1

      the easiest, most accommodating, most open gets adopted eventually.

      Then why hasn't this happened in set-top video gaming? More specifically, what distinguishes phones from game consoles and from dedicated gaming handhelds in this respect? Or are we still waiting for "eventually"?

    7. Re:PC world or video game console world? by ianare · · Score: 1

      In Europe there is no carrier lock, you can get the iPhone from several companies, in some countries this has been the case for several years. And yet, Android is exploding in popularity. Biggest losers in Europe are Apple and Nokia, where Nokia is more or less equivalent to RIM in the US in terms of previous market share and demography of its users.

      http://www.greatereader.org/?p=19211

    8. Re:PC world or video game console world? by unity100 · · Score: 1

      but it did ? the pc gaming market, is the market that everything revolves around -> from wow to crysis.

      yes, there is a closed ecosystem of consoles, but, these had been pretty much built over the ancient gaming consoles of late 70s. the companies so far kept quite a hold on their own turf -> but that's because no 'open initiative' like google did with android came forward : there was no need to - anyone needing open, customizable or more powerful, went pc gaming already.

      that aside, if you count in piracy and modding into console thing, the 'openness' would come out much more clearly.

    9. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Dedicated gaming handhelds" is getting partially eaten up by smartphones and the like now--the exception is cases where the smartphone isn't appropriate, and that's probably going to remain and fall into the same case as set-top video gaming.

      When was there an easy, accommodating, and open set-top video gaming setup (can replace that with dedicated gaming handhelds to make the same point) on the market? If there was one, did it ever get big enough to gain traction?

      Android, like Windows, got enough traction and notice to actually compete against the closed models. And now it's starting to pull ahead of them all, just like Windows did. Compared to Linux, BSD, etc. Windows isn't very open, but Linux, BSD, etc. have never gained as good of traction (and have often been looked at as not easy or accommodating also). You could compare Android to Meego (and maybe potential others) and say the same--Android isn't as open but it gained traction and can be viewed as easy and accommodating by a lot of people.

      I don't completely believe that Android is going to "win", but if it keeps its momentum and the competitors don't catch up their momentum to that level, it most likely will. To say otherwise at this point is ignoring the fact that this is exactly what is occurring right now--that doesn't mean it won't change, but rather just that it is the most solid prediction anyone can make based on the incoming data to this point. Android has a lot of momentum in growth--more than everyone else, right now--and until that momentum gets overtaken by someone else's momentum in growth, they're just going to keep passing everyone else by. Apple has a lot of momentum as well, but they're not growing nearly as fast as Android--Apple has a lot of fans that will camp outside of Apple stores and wait in line for their new products, but they're not consistently growing near as fast as Android has been, overall.

    10. Re:PC world or video game console world? by DinDaddy · · Score: 1

      So it is your contention that the majority of gamers, and the majority of gaming dollars spent, are in the PC gaming arena, not the consoles?

    11. Re:PC world or video game console world? by unity100 · · Score: 1

      what contention

    12. Re:PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 1

      "Dedicated gaming handhelds" is getting partially eaten up by smartphones and the like now--the exception is cases where the smartphone isn't appropriate

      I can think of plenty of game genres that work better with a physical directional pad and physical buttons than with a virtual directional pad and buttons on a multitouch screen. The only phone I can think of with a physical directional pad and physical buttons is Sony Ericsson's Xperia Play.

      When was there an easy, accommodating, and open set-top video gaming setup (can replace that with dedicated gaming handhelds to make the same point) on the market?

      Among dedicated gaming handhelds, there have been GP2X and GP2X Wiz. Why haven't they gained traction?

      Compared to Linux, BSD, etc. Windows isn't very open

      But as a set-top gaming PC operating system, Windows is far more open than the major video game consoles' operating systems. Now why hasn't connecting a PC to an HDTV gained traction in the way that Android has?

    13. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I can think of plenty of game genres that work better with a physical directional pad and physical buttons than with a virtual directional pad and buttons on a multitouch screen. The only phone I can think of with a physical directional pad and physical buttons is Sony Ericsson's Xperia Play.

      So we agree, ok...

      Among dedicated gaming handhelds, there have been GP2X and GP2X Wiz. Why haven't they gained traction?

      First guess: lack of marketing. If you mention GP2X to a lot of people, they will have no clue what you're talking about. Android on the other hand, a lot of people at least have the knowledge of something like "Droid" or "Evo" or other staples in the Android world. Android actually got some marketing out there and Android devices are actually known by a large enough portion of people to have traction to move with.

      But as a set-top gaming PC operating system, Windows is far more open than the major video game consoles' operating systems. Now why hasn't connecting a PC to an HDTV gained traction in the way that Android has?

      I can agree with and see this point, but it is different. Using a Windows set top box for video gaming would be a lot like throwing full-blown Windows on a phone (not quite as bad, I will admit). For one, how easy is it to find something specifically for gaming to set up and plug into your HDTV that runs Windows? Not that easy at all compared to Playstations, Wiis, and XBoxes. Even though a lot of PCs are probably capable of it, it's not advertised much at all, and not many people understand that it it is even possible. Furthermore, it's considerably more complicated to run a game or really anything on a Windows PC than it is most gaming consoles, where you just put in the disc you want to play and go. When I look at a gaming console, I think games and maybe movies. When I look at a computer, I might think games and even movies, but I'm also thinking more than that, as are most people. It's a different realm, and is a silly comparison to make.

    14. Re:PC world or video game console world? by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      the set-top video gaming market (where closed won)

      Was there even an "open" option there?

      Android is in the lead now, but I'm not sure how much of that comes from people avoiding the iPhone to avoid AT&T.

      That's a very US-centric view - keep in mind that Android grows worldwide.

    15. Re:PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 1

      For one, how easy is it to find something specifically for gaming to set up and plug into your HDTV that runs Windows?

      All modern HDTVs have HDMI in, and most have VGA in. All PCs made in the past two decades have VGA out. Some newer ones have HDMI out; others have DVI-D out, which is compatible with HDMI. I could go into Best Buy, get any slim PC, toss in a video card, and have a gaming HTPC. It's just that it isn't advertised, and indie game developers are hurting because of this.

      Furthermore, it's considerably more complicated to run a game or really anything on a Windows PC than it is most gaming consoles, where you just put in the disc you want to play and go.

      Windows games have autorun and mandatory installs. PS3 games have autorun and mandatory installs. Windows has an app store (Steam). Consoles have an app store (XBLA, Wii Shop, PSN Store). What difference am I failing to see?

      When I look at a gaming console, I think games and maybe movies.

      And when one looked at a phone, one thought calls and maybe texts. Camera phones and later smartphones changed that.

    16. Re:PC world or video game console world? by drb226 · · Score: 1

      Was there even an "open" option there?

      My thoughts precisely. It'll be interesting if Android becomes the successful "open" option for gaming. I haven't heard much buzz about Google TV lately, which makes me worry...

    17. Re:PC world or video game console world? by mhwombat · · Score: 1
    18. Re:PC world or video game console world? by schnell · · Score: 1

      it is the way human social dynamics work - the easiest, most accommodating, most open gets adopted eventually.

      Exactly, that's why 10+ years into the MP3 player market, the vast majority of devices sold are Archos, SanDisk or iRiver devices. Just like the PC OS market is dominated by the "easiest ... most open" product, Microsoft Windows DOES NOT COMPUTE DOES NOT COMPUTE NOMAD WILL SELF DESTRUCT

      --
      "95% of all Slashdot .sig quotes are incorrect or completely fabricated." -Benjamin Franklin
    19. Re:PC world or video game console world? by jon3k · · Score: 2

      Eh, it's kind of a strawman argument. You're implying that android phones don't "just work" which is not the case at all. Some Android phones are fantastic.

    20. Re:PC world or video game console world? by binkzz · · Score: 1

      Have you had a look at The Android Scripting environment?

      --
      'For we walk by faith, not by sight.' II Corinthians 5:7
    21. Re:PC world or video game console world? by jareth-0205 · · Score: 1

      Android is in the lead now, but I'm not sure how much of that comes from people avoiding the iPhone to avoid AT&T.

      Well, I don't know if there's alot of iPhone "avoiding" going on but if you look at the market in the UK where there is a choice there can be little argument about Android being chosen over iPhone (iPhone is available on all the major providers). Of course, with Android there is vastly more choice in terms of form factor & manufacturer, so it's not surprising. Even equivalent-spec Android devices have always been significantly cheaper than iPhone and there's only so much of that cost you can hide in the contract.

      Apple never particularly seem to want to compete on numbers, they have a solid profit margin on each device to make up for that.

    22. Re:PC world or video game console world? by jareth-0205 · · Score: 1

      My bet is the one with the most manufacturers behind it winning. I don't think there's an argument to claim that Android phones don't *just work* (although you might be able to say they're not as consistent as iOS, but I think the gap is pretty small), and the combined marketing and development power of Sony, HTC, Samsung, Motorola are overpowering Apple's 'cool'.

    23. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      I suspect that smartphones will fall somewhere between computers and TVs. TVs are the perfect fit for Apple - nobody even knows what OS their TV runs - they just buy one they like for the features it has. In the TV world Apple would be like Sony. And, just like Sony they'll be a big player that owns 15% of the market. The rest of the market will be the likes of HTC, LG, Samsung, Nokia, Motorolla, and the rest - and they'll probably all be churning out android phones (eventually).

      It is hard for a hardware maker to capture a majority of any market. The world's most popular car probably has 5% market share. Even the ipod which is unusual in its dominance only has 76% of the market (and I suspect that the mp3 player market is doomed long term as smartphones become cheaper and are decoupled from data plans).

      Apple has chosen to go it alone, and it is very hard for a single company going it alone to capture the majority of the market. Since software has a network effect that is going to hurt them in the long term I think.

    24. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      Ok, so phones are appliances.

      What percent of the refrigerator market does Maytag or whatever own?

      Appliances rarely are dominated by a single vendor - especially in the long term.

    25. Re:PC world or video game console world? by Bogtha · · Score: 1

      Really? I've been using Android phones for a few years now and have yet to find one I'm happy with. My requirements:

      • Hardware keyboard
      • Decent performance
      • Runs latest version of Android
      • Not full of bugs

      I have a Desire Z at the moment, and it's a miserable piece of shit. Suggestions for a replacement are much appreciated.

      --
      Bogtha Bogtha Bogtha
    26. Re:PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 1

      Even equivalent-spec Android devices have always been significantly cheaper than iPhone

      But have equivalent-spec Android-powered devices without a cellular radio always been significantly cheaper than iPod touch? Some people, such as myself, carry a dumbphone and whatever they're calling a smartphone-without-a-phone today (what they used to call a "PDA") because the prepaid voice service is an order of magnitude cheaper than a contract voice and data plan. I have an Archos 43, but it isn't exactly equivalent to an iPod touch because 1. its touch screen is single-touch, not multitouch, and 2. one has to pirate the Android Market app.

    27. Re:PC world or video game console world? by LordVader717 · · Score: 1

      Sure, but the freedom a platform offers has a knock-on effect on more consumer-relevant stuff. There will be better software, more empowering capabilities, more competition on the hardware side, and that will lead to better feature support and cheaper phones.

    28. Re:PC world or video game console world? by narcc · · Score: 1

      Three of your four criteria can be met with a BlackBerry. Check out the Bold Touch in a few months. If you use your phone for email and messaging, it's really hard to beat RIM's best-in-class software and physical keyboard.

      It doesn't run Android, of course, but I don't know how important that is to you.

    29. Re:PC world or video game console world? by jmac_the_man · · Score: 1

      I've never had a problem with my Droid 2, which I got shortly after launch.

    30. Re:PC world or video game console world? by jon3k · · Score: 1

      specific requirements != just works but the droid pro runs android 2.2 and would be a pretty good option for you.

    31. Re:PC world or video game console world? by grapeape · · Score: 1

      The problem is as you stated "some" android phones are fantastic. I just switched a couple weeks ago from a samsung galaxy s to an iphone 4 and had my largest client do the same. I just got sick of the lack of standardization with android. Supposedly Google is slowly making inroads at forcing some kind of uniformity and if it happens I'll be back but until then my job revolves around my phone and my clients phones, i like the assurance that at least for a few generations I will have regular updates, a consistent user experience, much less concern for malware, etc. Android is a great geek phone...If i had time to tweak and play with it., but as a business device the lack of consistency makes it far more of a pain than its worth.

    32. Re:PC world or video game console world? by grapeape · · Score: 1

      Really? So amateur radio won out over commercial radio, ota won out over cable and linux won the desktop wars? I must be living in a mirror universe.

    33. Re:PC world or video game console world? by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      Really? I've been using Android phones for a few years now and have yet to find one I'm happy with. My requirements:

      • Hardware keyboard
      • Decent performance
      • Runs latest version of Android
      • Not full of bugs

      I have a Desire Z at the moment, and it's a miserable piece of shit. Suggestions for a replacement are much appreciated.

      I recommend the HTC Vision / T-Mobile G2 running Cyanogenmod 7.

      Hardware keyboard.

      Astonishing performance (partly CM7, partly the integrated CPU/GPU chip)

      Runs CM7 (Gingerbread)

      Cyanogen's stuff is solid. He didn't focus on glitter (like a number of other third-party Android ROMs) but on performance and stability. The thing just won't crash. Also, out of all the devices supported by the Cyanogenmod developers, Steve Kondik (the guy that started it all) maintains the G2 code. I can't live without it, and I'll not go back to the stock firmware unless I have no choice. You'll have to root the thing (which isn't difficult I discovered) but once you do, you'll be a fan. It's what Android always started out to be, and will never be so long as the carriers are in charge of the operating system.

      Now, the native CPU speed of the G2 is 800 Mhz (although it performs like the 1 Ghz. older ARM in the Nexus One, and as I mentioned has an additional performance gain from the integrated CPU and video.) I had to overclock the stock firmware to 1 Ghz or more to get what I felt was good performance out of the carrier-supplied Android. Running Cyanogenmod 7 I can run it at the standard 800 Mhz, and it just flies. I have a couple of hundred apps on the phone, and I haven't yet found a compatibility issue with any of them. That's impressive in its own right.

      You can probably pick one up from Swappa.com.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    34. Re:PC world or video game console world? by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      Just like the PC OS market is dominated by the "easiest ... most open" product, Microsoft Windows DOES NOT COMPUTE DOES NOT COMPUTE NOMAD WILL SELF DESTRUCT

      Actually, Windows is perfectly open, in the context that we're discussing here. No, Windows is not open source, but in terms of the level of control the user has over the applications installed, and where they come from, Windows is as open as you can get. Nobody telling you what software you can or cannot use, nor are you forced to acquire that software from a single source. Unfortunately, Microsoft has chosen the Apple model for its latest Windows mobile effort, and that's too bad.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    35. Re:PC world or video game console world? by mjwx · · Score: 1

      But I can see a day when I'll want a system -- be it an entertainment system, a car or a smartphone -- that "just works." And sadly, this is more easily achieved when a single manufacturer controls the hardware.

      But that is not true of buying habits in general.

      "Just Works" is a secondary concern at best. What it comes down to is "do or not do". People will use a product that allows them to get from point A to point B as it were. This is why Windows remains on 90% of most computers, despite several Linux distro's being "average person ready" for 2 years now and a concerted fanboy marketing campaign by Apple, Microsoft's dominance on the desktop remains unchallenged. Why, well because Windows does, it does 99% of what 99% of people need it to. It does nothing well, it's a bloated, buggy pile of crap but it allows people to get things done.

      That is the real driver, will X device get what I want done. This is what will ultimately derail Apple, there will be too many cases where Apple "does not". Android is far from perfect, but it allows more people to do more of what they want then Apple. Spit an polish count for nothing when they put a roadblock in your way.

      If you're waiting for a perfect device, you'll never get one. Perfect is the enemy of done, however Android is a lot closer to that goal then Apple simply because Android does not, by default come with inbuilt restrictions.

      So in the end, Android vs IOS is much like DOS vs Apple in the 80's. DOS won because it allowed people to do what they needed, in order to do this it had to be extensible, flexible and well, open enough to allow people to do almost anything. Same with Unix vs Linux, now days it's hard to get a proprietary Unix, most are dead. We'd rather install Centos then sell AIX despite the profits for AIX being higher because AIX is on life support.

      Open and usable wins over closed and usable.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    36. Re:PC world or video game console world? by mjwx · · Score: 1

      the easiest, most accommodating, most open gets adopted eventually.

      Then why hasn't this happened in set-top video gaming? More specifically, what distinguishes phones from game consoles and from dedicated gaming handhelds in this respect? Or are we still waiting for "eventually"?

      Hi, I'm a gaming PC.

      You remember me, the largest and most diverse gaming platform.

      I'd also like to point out, whilst none are particularly hacker friendly the most hacker friendly consoles tend to get the largest market share. The Wii won this time, before that the PS2 (although the Xbox 360 was pretty hackable too) then the PS1, and the SNES. I remember all the hacked carts for the SNES, in fact I still have an old Action Replay lying around the place.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    37. Re:PC world or video game console world? by ap7 · · Score: 1

      The HTC Desire Z 'IS' the HTC Vision / T Mobile G2. Perhaps the CM7 ROM will help things. But my Desire Z is doing well with a recently updated 2.2.1 stock ROM.

    38. Re:PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 1

      So it is your contention that the majority of gamers

      If FarmVille is any indication.

      and the majority of gaming dollars spent

      If WOW is any indication.

      What's missing from PC games is non-networked multiplayer modes for home theater PC users.

    39. Re:PC world or video game console world? by tepples · · Score: 1

      Hi, I'm a gaming PC.

      You remember me, the largest and most diverse gaming platform.

      Statistically nobody has a gaming PC hooked up to a monitor big enough for two to four players.

    40. Re:PC world or video game console world? by cynyr · · Score: 1

      So are, but my Mother doesn't want to tinker with her phone at all, no sticking apps on the desktops, no setting up the colors, swipe gestures, button actions. She won't be rooting it, and installing CM7. All that after spending 20 years debugging mainframe OS code. SO yes, there are lots of people that expect a toaster like experience. "insert bread, press button, receive toast".

      --
      All of the above was encrypted with a Quad ROT-13 method. Unauthorized decryption is in violation of the DMCA.
    41. Re:PC world or video game console world? by cynyr · · Score: 1

      This is why Windows remains on 90% of most computers, despite several Linux distro's being "average person ready" for 2 years now and a concerted fanboy marketing campaign by Apple, Microsoft's dominance on the desktop remains unchallenged. Why, well because Windows does, it does 99% of what 99% of people need it to. It does nothing well, it's a bloated, buggy pile of crap but it allows people to get things done.

      Well for me windows is still on computers i use, because of excel sheets with macros, vendor selection software that only runs on windows(not even OSX), and the fact that autocad, inventor, and solidworks are still only available there. My home desktop runs Gentoo though, as does the home server, sadly that keeps the mostly idle server out of HTPC duty as there still isn't netflix for linux.

      --
      All of the above was encrypted with a Quad ROT-13 method. Unauthorized decryption is in violation of the DMCA.
  13. Apps dictate the OS choice by tepples · · Score: 1

    Remember that the majority of Android phone buyers do not care what OS it runs.

    They care what applications it runs, and if their favorite apps are exclusive to one operating system, they'll choose that OS. For example, if HTC makes a Windows phone and an Android phone, but your favorite apps are for Android, you'll probably choose the Android phone.

  14. Growth by pem · · Score: 1
    All growth curves eventually slow.

    Already 30% of cellphone users carry smartphones, so total smartphone growth will slow eventually.

    But Android has been out for awhile now, and is a known quantity. And yet, in the 3 months measured by the comscore report, the growth in Android users was 3.25 times the growth in iPhone users.

    Android growth could slow down a lot. Doesn't matter. They'll still be on top for a long time.

    1. Re:Growth by errandum · · Score: 1

      Symbian still is the worldwide market share holder and Nokia is dying (MS was just a small reprise)

      You need quality to accompany you growth. And while an HTC Desire, Samsung Galaxy or motorola Droid run Angry Birds in high settings with no problems, most low end phones struggle.

      On the other hand, if you have an iPhone, you can play it.

      I'm curious about the % of high end Android phones sold actually, because those are the ones that should be compared to an iPhone, not EVERY phone.

    2. Re:Growth by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe because iOS users don't need to place their phone in the trash bin all that often.

      HTC early smartphones, e.g.:" HTC Touch" were so horrible that some of us got such a bad experience with that brand we don't to try another, never again.
      And that was not a cheap product: it was 400Euros worth of expensive malfunctioning garbage, with Windows as a topping.
      - Display was unreadable under normal sunlight.
      - Kept resetting at random
      - Battery lifetime was a joke
      - You needed Outlook in order to synch to a computer
      - Crappy synch software kept not recognising the unit randomly
      We had it replaced, the replaced unit was as faulty as the original one: we gave up and had to consider it a sunk cost.

      I would be wary of many cheap Androids, and I would NEVER AGAIN buy an HTC.
      Apple may not be perfect, but their products are never complete crap.

    3. Re:Growth by errandum · · Score: 1

      The is exactly the point I was trying to make.

      Random guy X tries a cheap android phone. It has a crappy interface, crappy build quality, crappy feature set, etc.

      Then he comes to an on-line forum and says "I'm never buying android again"!

      In this case, nevermind that the HTC Desire sits at the top of some Top mobile phone lists ( http://www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/mobile-phones/20-best-mobile-phones-in-the-world-today-645440?artc_pg=21 ). It was doing what the iPhone now does, out of the box, 3 months before the iPhone 4 was announced.

      Since someone had a bad experience 4 years ago with HTC, they're never buying it again.

    4. Re:Growth by narcc · · Score: 1

      Apple may not be perfect, but their products are never complete crap.

      I don't know, the complaints you listed for the early HTC smartphones apply equally to the first and second generation iPhone. They were expensive, had notoriously wretched battery life, sync issues, and would often freeze (requiring a reset). I honestly don't know how they managed to succeed with such a poor initial product.

      No manufacturer is perfect -- and they all have products that were complete crap. RIM's Storm 1, Apples first iPhone, HTC Touch, etc.

  15. Re:Look at that! by narcc · · Score: 1

    Android owners seem less keen on paying for apps and I think you end up with the iphone or even blackberry being more attractive to a developer despite android's growth.

    It appears that BlackBerry developers earn more per app than iPhone and Android developers according to IHS Screen Digest, Feb 2011

    You're completely correct. Right now, BlackBerry is a difficult platform for developers to ignore.

  16. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    We all know what happened. The most open of the platforms prevailed, and the rest were basically crushed into obscurity.

    That sounds a bit revisionist. Wouldn't saying the cheapest of the platforms prevailed be more accurate?

    How were DOS's competitors less open?

  17. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by clang_jangle · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Android is best compared to MS-DOS, oddly enough. It was about being a flexible OS that ran on a wide range of hardware from a wide range of vendors, and in many ways it maximized the freedom of developers and users alike. It did very little to dictate how programs could be implemented, who may use them, and how they may be distributed.

    Sort of, but MS-DOS was proprietary and ran on relatively open hardware, while Android is the other way around.

    The most open of the platforms prevailed, and the rest were basically crushed into obscurity....I suspect that the same thing might be happening today.

    Not likely. Unfortunately, devices without locked bootloaders are the exception, not the rule. Most Android devices are not really any more open than the Blackberry in practice.

    --
    Caveat Utilitor
  18. Way more users now. by pavon · · Score: 1

    All the folks I knew that had Blackberries for work still have them. But I know a ton more people who bought Android/iPhone for personal use who never had a Blackberry/Palm/Windows phone in the past. That is why the market share is slipping; RIMs gross numbers are still increasing quarter after quarter, but not as quickly as the other phones.

    1. Re:Way more users now. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      RIM world wide numbers are increasing - but in the US the numbers are flat. The US sales have higher ASPs than internationally so their handset earnings are likely to have peaked.
      From comscore - 11/2009 - 15.2 Million, 2/2010 - 19.1 Million, 5/2010 - 20.4 million, 8/2010 - 20.9 million, 11/2010 - 20 million, 2/2010 - 20.1 million. Since many folks are locked into 2 year contracts, this will be the year that Blackberry users will fall steadily. I can't see how they are going to reverse their slide in the US.

  19. What low end? by pavon · · Score: 1

    Quarter after quarter, the only Android phones I see being introduced have faster processors, bigger displays, worse battery life and higher price. Which phones do you consider to be low end?

    1. Re:What low end? by errandum · · Score: 1

      Every phone with less than a 800Mzh processor;
      Every phone with less than 512Mb of RAM
      Every phone with less than 3.5" Display

      A good example are the HTC Wildfire, the Samsung Galaxy Mini, the Acer Liquid Mini, (etc. - Almost every low end Android phone from every manufacturer).

      They usually don't make the news.

    2. Re:What low end? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The low end phones are not as heavily advertised. They are out there, you just aren't going to know about them unless you are shopping for a new phone.

    3. Re:What low end? by pavon · · Score: 1

      I looked at the Wildfire and my first thought was "that doesn't look bad; basically the same as the Magic" which is pretty responsive with the latest cyanogen, then I saw it was still running Eclair. WTF, why would they be selling a low-end phone with a slower version of the OS?

    4. Re:What low end? by errandum · · Score: 1

      Because of the Wildfire S

      http://www.gsmarena.com/htc_wildfire_s-3777.php

      A bit more RAM, better screen, better processor... But still a low end device.

      And I think people are getting the wrong idea here. These phones are in no way unusable (some of them are actually are quite good for the price), but they aren't in the same league as the top Andoird phones or the iPhone (the one "Android" gets compared to).

    5. Re:What low end? by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      But it's good, not bad. It's quite similar to those cheap Windows netbooks - sure, if you compare them with Macbook they suck, but many people would still take them for the price alone. If your competitor sticks to only one market segment, while you cover them all, you will dominate the market - simply because low/mid-range has more users.

    6. Re:What low end? by errandum · · Score: 1

      I didn't say it was bad that they existed, just that the experience on those phones is "only" good (for the HTC ones, at least, they seem to be ahead of the pack in terms of interface and usability).

      And I get your point. I'm just curious about how many of those phones are actually competing against the iPhone and what's their market share (since every piece of news mentions iOS as the main competitor)

    7. Re:What low end? by brokeninside · · Score: 1

      I'm not the GP, but there are many low end android devices out there: TMobile Comet, LG Optimus line (C V and others), Huawei Ascend, etc.

  20. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Angostura · · Score: 4, Funny

    We all know what happened. The most open of the platforms prevailed, and...

    .... that's why this is the year of Linux on the desktop.

  21. Market share != user share... by msauve · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The summary makes the mistake of confusing market share (sales) with installed base ("user share"). Android has had leading market share for some time, which is why their share of the installed base is increasing. CRT televisions still have a very large installed base, but a very low market share - the vast majority of new TVs are LCD/plasma. Windows 2000 still has a significant installed base, but almost zero market share.

    --
    "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    1. Re:Market share != user share... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      OSes and TVs last a long time. People don't keep cell phones for very long before upgrading because they want to, upgrading because they have to (like switching carriers), or upgrading because their phone is broken or something. Basically, the faster the turnover, the more market share approximates user share. Cells phones last two years if you are lucky. Mine are usually broken within a year or so. If you don't have an extended warranty, then might as well get a better phone, even if its a used one.

    2. Re:Market share != user share... by foniksonik · · Score: 1

      This is a very good point. I wonder how market share will be when Apple updates again. If market share isn't amortized annually then it's not really relevant. Most of Apple's market is waiting to buy or bought a 6-9 months ago when the iPhone 4 was released. So sure you've got a giant surge of Android "market share" between the total eclipse that happens the weeks following iPhone releases.

      Installed base is a better number anyways.

      --
      A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
    3. Re:Market share != user share... by msauve · · Score: 1

      "Installed base is a better number anyways."

      Exactly how do you conclude that?

      Are you thinking Apple makes money from app sales, not hardware sales? Google makes money from use. Consider the other examples I gave. How much money is MS making from W2K (which still has a considerable installed base)? How many people are developing for W2K?

      Installed base looks to the past, market share is an indicator of the future.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    4. Re:Market share != user share... by jon3k · · Score: 1

      Why would there be a surge in Android sales between iPhone releases? Why wouldn't people buy the latest iPhone? Are you saying that Android phones released after the iPhone 4 are superior? I don't follow your logic there.

    5. Re:Market share != user share... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would there be a surge in Android sales between iPhone releases? Why wouldn't people buy the latest iPhone? Are you saying that Android phones released after the iPhone 4 are superior? I don't follow your logic there.

      I *think* that he thinks that the iPhone is used enitrely by stereotypical fanboys who rush out to buy the latest version as soon as it's out, regardless of whether they're still in contract, and then wait for the next release before immediately buying the next one. Now, admittedly that's stupid, but I think it's what he was getting at. By contrast he's assuming that Android phones will be purchased smoothly over time so their proportion of the market would plummet whenever it's new iPhone week.

    6. Re:Market share != user share... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Correct, and 84% of software sales are on iOS with everybody else contending for the remaining 16% of value.

    7. Re:Market share != user share... by msauve · · Score: 1

      So, iPhone users need to buy more apps. That means that either Android comes bundled with apps which do what people need, or the apps are they want available free in the open Android Market, so users don't have to pay for them. Or perhaps it means there are lots of iPhone users who buy "fart" apps.

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
    8. Re:Market share != user share... by slashnoyfb · · Score: 1

      While your post title is correct, your post is incorrect. The Graphic in the article clearly indicates. "Total US Smartphone Subscribers ages 13+"

    9. Re:Market share != user share... by msauve · · Score: 1

      You don't know the difference between a summary and an article, do you?

      --
      "National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
  22. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Evi1M4chine · · Score: 1

    May I add that the same thing happened in the hardware sector too. IBM-compatible PCs prevailed, because everybody could do with it whatever he wanted.
    Interestingly, fragmentation was prevented, because if your hardware wasn't really 100% compatible, nobody liked it, for that exact reason. :)

    I just hope there will be no incompatible fragmentation in Android after the initial “I’m the dominating standard” struggle.
    Oh well... as long as MS doesn't get into it... ;)

    --
    I must be some kind of leader... Since Slashdot is following me to the grave. ;)
  23. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Evi1M4chine · · Score: 0

    Correct. What we need for mobile phones, is the same modular flexibility as for desktop PCs. So everyone can get into it, offering parts. But hopefully without the ugly generic gray cases. ;)

    Otherwise I can just think of cars as an example. Luckily, there you can still "mod" your cars, no matter what the vendor expects. You'll only lose your guarantee. But modders offer you a new one. So other companies can make spare parts.
    With phones that is obviously also true, no matter how much Apple would like to to think it's not.

    If someone would create such a open modular phone, and get the Chinese/Taiwanese/Japanese/... on board, they'd flood the market with parts until the coolness of what phone you could get that way would crush the lock-in companies. (At least so I hope.)

    --
    I must be some kind of leader... Since Slashdot is following me to the grave. ;)
  24. Comparison bias? by alex67500 · · Score: 1

    The app store doesn't generate as much, because of the different set of mind. Google is all about advertising revenue, not direct sales to end-customers. How much did you pay for your 3 versions of Angry Birds on your iPhone? Yet Rovio are probably making way more off ads in the game on Android. Not a fact, just a guess. But since RIO is still free, I'm guessing the business model stands. (Think of it this way: on iPhone, new levels in any of the three = no extra income, but on Android, new levels = loads of ads displayed on user screens => revenue).

    1. Re:Comparison bias? by risinganger · · Score: 1

      Would you care to expand on this? iOS apps can have ads in them, as many free apps do, so I fail to see why that is somehow a distinction between the two platforms.

  25. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by alex67500 · · Score: 0

    Does that mean that Nokia has turned into 1980s IBM and opted for the Bill Gates solution that's going to rule the world in 20 years time?

  26. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Bert64 · · Score: 1

    The Amiga was considerably cheaper, and superior to DOS based machines of the day.

    Software competitors weren't less open than DOS, but they weren't more open either... On the other hand the hardware required to run DOS was considerably more open than the hardware that ran other systems, and software was considered a triviality alongside the price of hardware.

    --
    http://spamdecoy.net - free throwaway anonymous email - avoid spam!
  27. Re:Look at that! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Remove free Apps from that average and it will tilt in the other direction.

  28. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by C0vardeAn0nim0 · · Score: 1

    We all know what happened. The most open of the platforms prevailed, and the rest were basically crushed into obscurity. Most went completely out of business. Apple, by far the strongest of them, only barely managed to survive the rest of the 1980s and early 1990s.

    I suspect that the same thing might be happening today. Although not the first, Apple took a commanding lead within the market. But facing competition from more open hardware and software, they don't have a hope in hell of surviving in the long run. It remains to be seen what will happen with Jobs in the near future, but if he departs from Apple for whatever reason, it's likely that they'll face yet another dark period like that between 1987 and 1999.

    i don't think anyone's going out of business, for several reasons. but the most important is what's the so-called "killer app". see, the "killer app" back at those days were what i call "the holy trinity" lotus 1-2-3, d-base and wordstar. later it wordperfect took the crown as editor, later it became all MS office. other plataforms had a snowball chanve in hell of being adopted by business without office applications that were interoperable with PC. and in those days, real money was in the office market. home market was considered a "toy market" or "hobyst market". apple found a comfortable niche in grpahics and publishing that kept them afloat until the home market became as big as the business market.

    then in mid 80's things changed in the home market, the 'killer app" at home moved from games ang hobby to being able to bring work home, that's when the PC crushed all the other platforms at this market too.

    the other change, in late 90's was that the "killer app" at the home market became being able to access the internet and playing MP3/video. that's what allowed the mac to make a come back, and this is where it still is on the computer market.

    now, smartphones ? the "killer app" untill now was: contacts, phoning and messaging. now it's all this, plus e-mail, web browsing and small apps.

    all of this is available in ALL plataforms. contact's, mail, phone, messaging and web, those are all standardized or licensed (information on how to interface with MS exchange is available to any manufacturer for a fee. so it's available for android, iOS, RIM, webOS and symbian).

    so, the last "killer app" for mobiles: applications.

    well, developing cross-plataform code is a lot easier today than it was 10, 20 or 30 years ago, so the same angry birds you play on android, you can play on iOS or even on windows.

    the end result, don't expect apple, RIM or even MS to leave the market any time soon. even webOS may still have a future ahead of it, now that they have HPs deep pockets behind it.

    --
    What ? Me, worry ?
  29. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by hedwards · · Score: 1

    That came to bite some people when the computer advertised as IBM Compatible wasn't 100% compatible. Anybody that's tried to install a SoundBlaster into a Leading Edge knows exactly what I mean.

    Also, I'd like to apologize for bringing up the bad memories from that hunk of crap maker.

  30. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by vakuona · · Score: 1

    Keep dreaming!

    What most people need, is a phone that they can buy, and they can do stuff with. Most people want to tinker with and mod their phones as much as they want to tinker with and mod their cars, which is to say they don't want to tinker.

  31. Re:Look at that! by vakuona · · Score: 1

    Lies, damn lies and statistics.

  32. Re:fuck yeah by Xtravar · · Score: 1

    I think everyone can get behind this. We have customers who have been bugging us to support Blackberry since we support iPhone and soon Android. A lot of ISVs are in the same boat. Nobody wants to deal with Blackberry, and now we can point at this downtrend and push back even harder.

    --
    Buckle your ROFL belt, we're in for some LOLs.
  33. It's an OS, not a vertical product. by solios · · Score: 1

    Seriously. All the tech-press yammering about Android's exploding market share makes my brain itch. It's overtaken vertical solutions (RIM, Apple) by running on a broad variety of hardware - it's gaining market share the same way Windows did back in the day, by running on COTS hardware instead of the more tightly-bound offerings from Commodore or Apple (or others). It would be more accurate to compare Android against, say... MeeGo, Symbian, etceteras. Marketshare comparisons are only really valid if the phone owner has a choice of operating systems - you're not going to be running iOS on a Nokia phone, for example.

    I'm sure RIM and Apple aren't losing market share - these rapid gains are coming by handset vendors dropping an OEM OS for Android, or shipping the same handset with an Android option.

    1. Re:It's an OS, not a vertical product. by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      Does it make you feel better to say "Android passes RIM OS" versus Blackberry?

      One thing I'd be interested in seeing is iOS versus Android, WP7, and RIM OS market share numbers. That would be an interesting piece of information for developers considering investing in another platform.

    2. Re:It's an OS, not a vertical product. by ianare · · Score: 1

      I'm sure RIM and Apple aren't losing market share - these rapid gains are coming by handset vendors dropping an OEM OS for Android, or shipping the same handset with an Android option.

      Yes, they both are losing market share, since that metric takes the respective percentages of all sales. Apple may be selling more devices in absolute terms, but in proportion to Android, it is selling less. This is because the market itself is growing very rapidly.

    3. Re:It's an OS, not a vertical product. by solios · · Score: 1

      Agreed. For handsets, it looks like it's cooking down to iOS, Android, RIM (ultimately strictly corporate, then fading away if they can't stay in front for value added... using the iOS email interface, all I can say about it is if mail were my bread and butter, anything would be an improvement, and this is allegedly RIM's strong point), and Microsoft's various half-assed attempts to buy Windows Whatever into the marketplace.

      For my money, I think the "now" will get More So over the next couple of years - businesses under contract will stick with RIM, nerds will use Android,hipsters will use iOS, people who've never bought a mobile phone might get suckered into whatever Microsoft is trying to push.

      In a moderate span of time, RIM will be absorbed by Google or Microsoft - by GOOG as a business grab or by MS as a desperate marketshare grab. The marketplace will then consolidate to iOS, Android, and whatever Microsoft thinks they can offer, with RIM integration grafted into Android or Microsoft offerings. (Apple will continue to put more effort into their website's description of iOS's mail capabilities than they will iOS's actual mail capabilities, as they always have)

      Phone OSsen will ultimately boil down to iOS, Android (merging with ChromeOS as developers continue to think the iPad is something worth targeting) and possible Windows-Whatever, which may have an actual strong advantage given the sudden realization that despite years and years of hardware and software development in the slate/tablet form-factor space, the tablet PC did not exist AT ALL until Apple invented the iPad. Never mind that you can run photoshop "out of the box" on a PC tablet running Windows - Apple has nuked the hell out of marketing in the "tablet space" and despite being massive orders of magnitude more capable, everyone else is now playing catchup, thanks to massive marketing fail.

      Diatribe divergence aside.... five to ten years from now? Apple, Google, Microsoft, RIM. In alphabetical order, specialized, and fighting for dominance as opposed to swimming in moneyhats. Apple as the new Sony, Google as the new Amiga, Microsoft as the new IBM, RIM as the new-old IBM, relative to the market-space.

      Yeah? No?

      Who knows. There's plenty of time for another company to rise up and turn the industry on its ear. Smartphones are roughly where PCs were at in the early 80s - something might just come along and make iOS look like CP/M.

      I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't count it out, either.

  34. HTC Thunderbolt by thebra · · Score: 1

    I switched from ATT to Verizon and purchased an HTC Thunderbolt. I love the phone and am really enjoying building apps for it. As a web developer it has been a fun and challenging experience learning bits of Java and the Android SDK.

  35. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by clang_jangle · · Score: 1

    I love the idea, but doubt it will happen. The N900 is pretty close to my dream phone, but I'm stuck with Verizon due to business and location. If one could order the mainboard, radio, screen, keyboard, enclosure, etc and assemble the thing then install some distro and register it on Verizon's network that would be really exciting. But other people who feel that way are uncommon, I guess... And of course it would buck the trend of your carrier effectively owning all devices and data on it's network. Now that they've gotten a taste of the mass market accepting that and even paying a premium for it, we're all screwed.

    --
    Caveat Utilitor
  36. No it isnt. by unity100 · · Score: 1

    Back during the days of PC vs others, situation was the same. there were those who had tight control, there were those who were more relaxed. and today, 'computer' is basically 'pc', and even everyone forgot that it was 'pc'. it passes as 'desktop computer' universally.

    rim and apple lost, because of precisely why competitors to ibm pc lost.

  37. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You do realize that Android is based on the Linux kernel, right? You do also realize that there are far more mobile devices out there than there are PCs, notebooks, netbooks, tablets and servers combined, right? And you do realize that this article is about how Android's share of this market is becoming absolutely huge, and is growing at a very rapid pace, right?

    This is a much greater win than domination of just the server or desktop markets ever could be. The mobile device sphere is much more significant. At this point, it's shaping up to be, at the very least, the decade of Linux on the mobile device.

  38. But there are hardly any set-top PCs by tepples · · Score: 1

    but it did ? the pc gaming market, is the market that everything revolves around

    This may be true for single-player and online multiplayer. But there aren't nearly enough set-top PCs (or home theater PCs or media center PCs) to make a viable market for games with a mode designed for set-top PCs. (Or so other Slashdot users tell me.) And some genres, such as fighting games and party games, don't work well on desktop or laptop PCs due to the smaller monitor not fitting two to four people around it.

  39. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by TheCouchPotatoFamine · · Score: 1

    oh geez.. you're argument sounds exactly like an elderly dude wishing for the yesteryear. No matter how much you wish you knew NOW what you knew THEN... it's not going to help. The future is not written, my friend (to whom I wish longevity!)

    --
    CS majors know the time/space tradeoff, but they never get taught the 3rd, crucial, tradeoff of the set: comprehension!
  40. Moore's Law says the low-end phones matter too by pem · · Score: 1
    Any company shipping a low-end phone that actually runs Android now will be able to ship one that runs Android a lot better within a year.

    Once a handset company has invested in porting Android and learning how to port Android, that company has a lot less effort porting Android to its next phone.

    1. Re:Moore's Law says the low-end phones matter too by errandum · · Score: 1

      true.

      I was just stating that the low end android scores are an experience on their own, and should not be compared with the rest. They might have a good quality/price ratio, but still not be able to play Angry Birds :)

      In the end people will remember that they couldn't play their game or take quality pictures, not that it actually had a pretty decent feature set for a cheap phone.

  41. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by King_TJ · · Score: 1

    While I like the idea of drawing an analogy between the computer scenario of the 80's and the smartphone scenario of today? I don't agree with the original poster's conclusions, or even some of the comparisons.

    MS-DOS really isn't a great comparison to Android, IMO. MS-DOS was flexible and seen running on a wide range of hardware - but it was also copyrighted and licensed out to interested parties. This led to fragmentation of DOS, in fact. IBM had their own "PC-DOS" for a while, and there was the Digital Research DR-DOS too. Additionally, there were a lot of compatibility issues, early on. I remember Tandy selling a whole line of "PC compatibles" that weren't really quite compatible, for example. The fact you saw a DOS operating system on the hardware was no guarantee all your software was going to work right on it!

    I see no reason to predict the death of Apple's iOS, even in the long haul -- because the smartphone market is more like gaming consoles than computers. Just as people develop allegiances to the Playstation or the XBox 360 or the Wii, they prefer the Blackberry or the Apple iPhone or Nokia's offerings. Unlike a computer, a phone only needs to really do specific things - and for the vast majority? The real reasons they want a "smartphone" over a regular cellphone revolve around the Internet connectivity - which has more to do with the carrier selected than the device. (They want to use Facebook on their phone, read the news, check email, surf random web sites, update a Twitter account, or upload some photographs someplace. They may want to tether too. Doesn't matter which OS your phone runs, really, to accomplish any of that stuff.)

    I'm currently using an HTC Evo 4G myself, with Android 2.2 -- so I'm not "anti Android" by any means. But having owned an iPhone previously? I'd have to say I see far more similarities than differences, and I prefer iOS when it comes to the small details. (Easier to delete an app, less problems of system getting quirky and needing a power off/on to get it back to normal, etc.)

  42. Hey Steve! by Tumbleweed · · Score: 1

    How do you like 'dem apples?

    1. Re:Hey Steve! by quacking+duck · · Score: 1

      How do you like 'dem apples?

      (Jobs checks his the value of his Apple shares, then checks revenue from iPhone hardware sales)

      Like my Apples just fine.

      Sent from my iPhone

  43. Zino does what Nintendon't by tepples · · Score: 1

    the set-top video gaming market (where closed won)

    Was there even an "open" option there?

    Before 1986, many 8-bit home computers supported TV out. Then IBM compatible PCs took off, most of which were incompatible with TV monitors. For the next two decades, a few PCs supported TV out. I can see why that failed, as not all video cards had composite or S-Video out, and the "scan converter" box to turn VGA into SDTV was incredibly obscure and fairly expensive. But starting around 2006, most new TVs have had VGA and HDMI inputs, suitable to display a PC's respective VGA and DVI-D outputs. The only thing I can think of that kept a media center PC from becoming the fourth console over the past five years is inertia combined with lack of advertising. So I guess small form factor PCs like the Dell Zino with Radeon graphics need something like the "Genesis does what Nintendon't" or "Droid does what iDon't" commercial.

  44. No kidding by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 1

    I hate this idea that "Everything has to be really good, ultra high-end." No, it doesn't. Not everyone want sot buy something high end. Yes, it does mean compromising on something, that's ok for people.

    Your netbook example is a good one. My dad just got a netbook recently. I do not care for it at all. The screen is too small, it is fine for surfing the web or writing documents but too slow for anything more intense and so on. However he likes it a lot. He likes that it is so small and portable. His needs are simple so it meets them just fine. However he really likes that it is cheap. Like (almost) everyone else my parents have a budget to deal with and they do not care to spend much of it on computers.

    Turns out there is room in the market for all kinds of things. There is room for my dad's little network and my bigass Core i7 desktop.

    Same shit with phones. Anyone who says that Android is only low end needs to pull their head out of their ass and go play with an HTC Thunderbolt/EVO/etv (they make the same thing for a number of carriers under different names). Faster, bigger, more storage, more features than the iPhone 4 and 4G to boot. It is a high end device, and carries a price tag to match. However there are also some nice lower end devices for people who don't wanna spend so much, but would still like a basic smartphone.

    That is a great way for things to be.

  45. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by drb226 · · Score: 1

    the decade of Linux on the mobile device

    Personally I hope it lasts another decade or two. Seriously, screw the desktop; in 20 years we'll all have "mobile" supercomputers with us everywhere we go.

  46. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  47. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Belial6 · · Score: 1

    Not to mention that every TV in my house runs Linux also.

  48. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not likely. Unfortunately, devices without locked bootloaders are the exception, not the rule. Most Android devices are not really any more open than the Blackberry in practice.

    You shut your whore mouth!

  49. Apple will win it ALL. Apple FTW! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All you android idiots are just sore losers. You unfairly compare all sorts of phones running various proprietary and closed versions of google's crappy OS to a SINGLE phone from Apple. Compared to any single Android phone, the iPhone is KICKING ANDROIDS ASS! And even if it didn't, my iPhone 4 still ROCKS OUT WITH MY COCK OUT and nothing you people say or do will ever change that. So suck on that google-zealots.

    PS: Bing is a better search engine.

  50. Fanboys are Fanboys.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As a slashdot reader I have learned to simply take the opinons with a grain of salt for really only two reasons. 1). Most posters are tech-literate so some of their thoughts are way over the market. 2). Groupspeak runs rampant, if it isn't "openness" its fragmentation. Sorry, we're all not techno-anarchists.

    That being said android is going to be dominant because ATT & Verizon offer 3 iPhones in 3 different speeds and the fastest is substantially expensive. Android is offered on all 4 major carriers & is offered on a dozen different phones. My aging MyTouch 3G slide is at 2.1 and would be considered a "low-end" phone now, still is very competitive with the iPhone 3GS & does the tasks I ask of it admirably.

    The slow release cycles of the iPhone & blackberries hurt them but technologically & commercially because they don't get a dozen research departments building phones while marketing suffers from the lack of continuous releases. HTC, samsung, and Motorola all run independent commercials. Android is everywhere & is inevitably going to lead unless Apple offers variety or RIM/Windows opens development up to 3rd party companies. Nokia being bribed doesn't really count.

  51. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by HeavyDevelopment · · Score: 1

    Here is how things are radically different back in the day. What you are suggesting is a false analogy and I'll explain why.

    One hardware. Touch screen pads and phones can not be repaired and/or built from scratch by you average advanced computer user. In my day, I built up many desktops and servers from parts. If the video card went bad, I just replaced it. Most can't do that with an Android pad/phone (I have replaced the screen on an iPhone and horribly botched it. The second time I got it right, but felt I should have just sent it in for repair. Those screws are just so incredibly tiny). Plus mobile carriers carry phones from major manufacturers. It's not like when you could go to a computer fair and buy a case, mb, processor, RAM, hard drive, peripherals and have yourself a computer.....home brew phones don't exist (well not for most people). So these devices are more hardware dependent--that has always been Apple's advantage. Mating specific hardware and software avoiding fragmentation. Consequently 1000x easier to support (hey remember when you installed your favorite flavor of Linux with a "Wangtech"--or whatever vid card was the cheapest from Fry's? Those were the days. I'd like to have that time back please). I think that people are going to avoid cheap build quality on these lower end products where the difference between a cheaply built Android pad from China that has support issues and only going to last a year before it craps out with one that is made from decent hardware is only going to be $100 or $200 to mostly avoid the headache. I know I have. I used to work on my own cars in high school and college, but once I could afford a mechanic (or a car like a BMW that has a maintenance free warranty for 3 years) I stopped working on my own stuff. Also it has to be pointed out that since Apple is one of the biggest single manufacturers of phones and pad devices that they get much better pricing than say Motorola from their vendors. If Apple wants to compete on price at anytime they can go lower than most manufacturers can break even on (assuming they are making decent hardware ie Motorola, Samsung, etc.) and still make money. Apple is in what is known as the cat-bird seat. And a lot of these relationships go back to the millions of iPods they sold. These suppliers are very different than those that supply parts for computer companies like Dell and HP. Apple has a huge advantage here (unlike back when they were making computers in the 80s).

    Secondly Apple took a page right out of Microsoft's playbook and have supported and made things profitable for developers. Developers make money easier in Apple's walled garden than Android marketplace. Since Google has based their whole mobile premise on the open source movement people are expecting everything to be free. Well the origins of the open source movement was that of a community of people that came together to make software that was better than what you could get commercially because it was made for people that were advanced users. These are people that didn't mind getting down and dirty with config files as opposed to using a wizard. It was also expected that since it was open source that you were going to contribute to the software and this 'sweat equity' paid for other people's work. Plus your work on large open source projects could land you a great job and it paid off this way in spades for many open source developers. With phone and pad apps this open source community spirit is not there. Why would you spend hours and hours working on something that other regular people expect to download for free and 99% of these downloaders aren't going to contribute back. Where is the profit motive of open source software in Android that isn't supported by advertising (which is a whole other issue)? From my point of view, Google is expecting developers to keep up the spirit of the dawn of open source and work for free.

    Thirdly, the way that Google is handling their apps is setting themselves up for a malware issue way above and beyond the iss

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    Badges!?! We don't need no stinking badges!
  52. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by jon3k · · Score: 1

    No, it's the year of the "cloud" the web based application running in datacenters on commodity hardware running linux. Post-PC, remember? The desktop isn't relevant anymore.

  53. Price wins! by stastuffis · · Score: 1

    The main driving force is always price. Always. That's why I believe Android will continue to win, and it's simply a huge perk that we have access to the source (even though delays frustrate the entitled folk).

    Apple popularized the smartphone market, meaning they brought the 'taste' to the mainstream. They did the same with MP3 players. However, when comparing products, Android may not be optimal for everyone's tastes, but if it's 'good enough' then it's a formidable substitute. And at a lower cost, it will not lose.

  54. That was last year. by symbolset · · Score: 1

    What have you done for me lately?

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    Help stamp out iliturcy.
  55. Outcome? by retroworks · · Score: 1

    Workers assembling Blackberries at Foxconn in Shenzhen will be replaced by workers making Androids at Foxconn in Shenzhen.

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    Gently reply
  56. Smartphones decoupled from data plans by tepples · · Score: 1

    and I suspect that the mp3 player market is doomed long term as smartphones become cheaper and are decoupled from data plans

    Smartphones decoupled from data plans? In these United States? Give me a break. T-Mobile, the only major U.S. carrier to offer plans designed for unlocked phones bought elsewhere, plans to sell its U.S. operations to AT&T, the only major U.S. carrier to require registration as a developer before sideloading.

    1. Re:Smartphones decoupled from data plans by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      You can already buy them decoupled from data plans - the selection is just very limited and the cost is $550. You can get them used for under $100, but generally only for old models.

      In a couple of years, smartphones will be like digital cameras - $90 at walmart will get you a decent one. Data plans will eventually get cheaper as well.

      I'm not talking about next Tuesday or anything. Think long term.

      In any case, why would you buy an mp3 player when you can just use your cell phone to do the same thing and have one less device to carry. I could see there being some market for a small dedicated device, but it will no longer be mainstream...

    2. Re:Smartphones decoupled from data plans by tepples · · Score: 1

      You can already buy them decoupled from data plans - the selection is just very limited and the cost is $550.

      I'd pay that much, but only if I can buy reasonably priced pay-as-you-go voice and data.

      Data plans will eventually get cheaper as well.

      Not if AT&T buys T-Mobile and becomes the only nationwide GSM carrier in the United States. The consolidation that's happening in the U.S. cell phone market is slowing the downward pressure of competition on service pricing.

      In any case, why would you buy an mp3 player when you can just use your cell phone to do the same thing and have one less device to carry.

      Because I want the use of the device between now and "eventually" when Android-powered phones dip below $100. Or because I still want to make or receive urgent calls when the MP3 player is running low on charge.

    3. Re:Smartphones decoupled from data plans by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      Again, I'm not talking about now. I'm talking about years from now - the long-term. I'm not saying that nobody will buy mp3 players next Tuesday, or a year from next Tuesday. I'll be surprised if they're all that big five years from now, however.

  57. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by LordVader717 · · Score: 1

    Sort of, but MS-DOS was proprietary and ran on relatively open hardware, while Android is the other way around.
    I would say the license of the OS is pretty irrelevant (which I suppose is what you mean with "open" hardware and software), the point is that MS-DOS and Android allow you to utilize the system's hardware whereas iOS doesn't (and thus isn't really worthy of the term "operating system". "App platform" would be more fitting). That's from the consumer perspective.

    Android's hardware isn't in any way closed either. Sure, PC hardware is much easier to come by and much more customizable than phones are, but that's essentially a market situation. There's nothing stopping anyone with the engineering expertise from making their very own Android computer, and indeed there are many no-name tablets and phones from china doing just that.

  58. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think the key truth in the post you replied to was, "Most Android devices are not really any more open than the Blackberry in practice", which is true. You can't install your distro of choice on any android device of which I'm aware. There might be one or two red herrings, that's about it.

  59. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

    Keep dreaming!

    What most people need, is a phone that they can buy, and they can do stuff with. Most people want to tinker with and mod their phones as much as they want to tinker with and mod their cars, which is to say they don't want to tinker.

    Yes, but you're entirely missing the point (one which Google gets, and demonstrated very clearly by releasing an open-source OS in the first place.) You're taking the Jobs approach that a phone's operating system is something that should never, ever, be under the user's control. Which is hysterical to me, because I guarantee you that if Microsoft or Apple or any other PC operating system vendor tried to impose that level of control upon you, you'd scream bloody murder and look elsewhere for your OS.

    Android is an open source Linux distribution. Just like many, many other Linux distributions, but this one just happens to be designed to run on a cell phone. Are you saying that there should only be one officially-sanctioned Linux distro for personal computers, and that all the rest should be considered rogue? I think you can see the ridiculousness of that, and if you start to think of your smart phone as the personal computer that it is, you start to understand just how offensive this idea of preventing users from running the operating system of their choice really is.

    So, yes, the average user has no interest in personally doing squat with the source code to his OS, but that doesn't mean that he may not want the results of other people's tinkering! For example, my G2 runs Cyanogenmod. I've been an avid user of Steve Kondik's work since it was first released, mainly because it was superior to the carrier's offerings and continues to be so to this very day. Have I ever looked at a line of Android source, or compiled it for myself? Of course not: but force me to go back to the stock firmware and I'll probably just go buy an iPhone. Just before I shoot myself in the head to put myself out of my misery.

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    The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
  60. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

    From my point of view, Google is expecting developers to keep up the spirit of the dawn of open source and work for free.

    One word: ads.

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    The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
  61. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by bmidgley · · Score: 1

    This comparison to MSDOS/PCs really bothers me. I see it all the time. There's a huge problem with drawing the comparison to MS-DOS--the lack of a standardized bios on android phones.

    I could upgrade a PC with a new os without worrying about who made the PC. There's no situation like that with android devices. You're lucky if the manufacturer still supports upgrades on your device, then you fall back to community support if there is any, then you're stuck. There are several examples of android phones that were already end-of-lifed when they were still being sold new. When was that ever happening in the PC market?

  62. Re:It's just a rehash of the PC world of the 1980s by Apotsy · · Score: 1

    So Larry Ellison is finally right about NetPCs?

  63. Android teh new windows 95 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hurray the so called open platform is in the lead all hail the ill upgradeable unsupported malware platform !

  64. Comparing classes to instances. Cute. by JoshNorton · · Score: 1

    So, an OS is selling more than one product? Got it.

    How about iOS sales compared to Android sales? I'd be curious to see that one.

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    "Stupid! Stupid stupid stupid stupid! I touched the hot wire right there - I'm an idiot!"
  65. Re:fuck yeah by thePowerOfGrayskull · · Score: 1
    Or you could... you know, give them what they want. Them being customers and all ...

    Eh? Yeah, I've a biased perspective, but also have the experience to know that developing for BB isn't the horror show that people tend to think it is.