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Local Atmosphere Heated Rapidly Before Japan Quake

eldavojohn writes "A new paper presented at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland shows the rapid heating of the atmosphere directly above the fault days before the devastating earthquake hit. This is theorized to be the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism that occurs when large amounts of radon are released due to massive stress in the fault right before the quake. This can be detected with satellites analyzing infrared waves: 'The radioactivity from this gas ionizes the air on a large scale and this has a number of knock on effects. Since water molecules are attracted to ions in the air, ionization triggers the large scale condensation of water. But the process of condensation also releases heat and it is this that causes infrared emissions.' This is a shift from the Haiti earthquake where DEMETER was used to monitor ultra low frequencies. The presence of radon could also possibly explain erratic wildlife behavior prior to an earthquake."

202 comments

  1. HAARP by GeorgeMonroy · · Score: 0

    Or one of Japan's enemies.

    --
    You got the touch!
    1. Re:HAARP by qpqp · · Score: 1

      Zhirinovsky [...] has been dismissed as a “clown”

      He's a populist and probably likes being called a top-politician.

    2. Re:HAARP by treeves · · Score: 1

      Is your last name actually Noory?

      --
      ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
    3. Re:HAARP by Hylandr · · Score: 1

      I really wish people would quit haarping about weather weapons. Jeez. Now excuse me, the water is creeping up my desk, and I have been told I have to evacuate.

      - Dan.

      --
      ~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
    4. Re:HAARP by mldi · · Score: 1

      Nope. Cthulu farted when he arose from his slumber.

      --
      If you aren't suspicious of your government's actions, you aren't doing your job as a responsible citizen.
  2. Holy grail? by Toe,+The · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So does this mean we just might have a reliable earthquake detector, or is it only a sometimes-thing?

    1. Re:Holy grail? by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      Satellites predicting massive Earthquakes. Who knew?!

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    2. Re:Holy grail? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Assuming sarcasm, obviously not you, or you would have made the discovery.

    3. Re:Holy grail? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Curious as well, but i'd wildly guess its reliable on major/abnormal levels spikes wich would be enough to indicate a possible earthquake high on the scale, but that would be great either way!

    4. Re:Holy grail? by Dthief · · Score: 2
      even if it doesn't detect every earthquake....if you could detect some of them with certainty that would be great!!

      My question is whether you can determine the strength/magnitude range beforehand......there are so many quakes all over the world all the time....its only the 5's, 6's and up when people really care (maybe a 4 if its somewhere that doesn't normally get a quake)

      --
      www.RacquetUp.org - Helping Detroit Youth
    5. Re:Holy grail? by plover · · Score: 1

      It will only help if we can just figure out how to employ sheep's bladders to prevent earthquakes.

      --
      John
    6. Re:Holy grail? by Beelzebud · · Score: 4, Interesting

      What it means, is that we have something we really need to observe more examples of, before we jump to conclusions. It's a very interesting observation though. This very well could turn out to be a way to scientifically predict large earthquakes. Only time and more research will tell.

    7. Re:Holy grail? by Hijacked+Public · · Score: 1

      Exactly.

      The next time a phenomenon such as this is detected I suppose a warning could be issued, but what if people ignored it? Except for governments that have the authority and capability to force people to comply, something as vaporous as 'there might be an earthquake in the next few days' isn't going to change routines.

      Giant quakes don't exactly happen often and the further removed generations are from one the more likely they are to have an 'it can't happen to me' mindset. Japan had warnings carved into rock to avoid building in tsunami vulnerable areas, and they built a nuclear plant in one.

      --
      "Sacrifice for the good of The State" - The State
    8. Re:Holy grail? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Satellites relaying snarky remarks over the internet. Who knew?!

    9. Re:Holy grail? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bobby Jindal is disappointed we might spend money on something called "earthquake monitoring".

    10. Re:Holy grail? by Khalid · · Score: 1

      Now I understand why I always had this strange feeling or air beeing heated just "seconds" before earthquakes (relatively common here in Morocco) until today I was convinced it was a psychological effect, well maybe it is ! as this probably needs more scientific analysis !

    11. Re:Holy grail? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wonder if there is historical data that is available for recent large quakes. Is there stored satellite data or weather data on the ground (temp, dew point, humidity, etc) that could be analyzed after the fact for changes just prior to recent quakes.

    12. Re:Holy grail? by cwebster · · Score: 1

      http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/ Lots of data available, have fun.

    13. Re:Holy grail? by shermo · · Score: 1

      something as vaporous as 'there might be an earthquake in the next few days' isn't going to change routines

      Please tell me you're kidding.

      http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread701933/pg1

      http://www.cnkeyword.info/taiwan-14-earthquake-predicted-wave-triggered-evacuation-helicopter-apron-shift/

      http://gardencityquake.blogspot.com/2011/03/false-earthquake-prediction-sparks.html

      People are willing to evacuate cities based upon the predictions of this guy: "He is co-author of Pawmistry: How to Read Your Cat's Paws, which teaches ways to read a cat's mood and "explores the psychic influences that numerology and the zodiac have on your cat"."

      Hopefully a scientifically backed prediction would have at least as much effect.

      --
      Insanity: voting in the same two parties over and over again and expecting different results
    14. Re:Holy grail? by steelfood · · Score: 1

      They can start by consulting the history books. There are plenty of recorded instances were animals were behaving strangely right before a major earthquake. People may have written it off previously as superstition, but it's probably a good time to re-examine those stories now.

      Eventually, we (and I use this term loosely) may be able to narrow it down to certain types of quakes (e.g. the massive subduction zone-type quakes), but we can't be certain other types of quakes (transform faults) will exhibit the same type of behavior.

      What they'll probably find is that it is an event that can, but does not necessarily precede an earthquake. They may, however, be able to use it to determine whether a quake is a foreshock, the main shock, or an aftershock when it does happen.

      --
      "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
    15. Re:Holy grail? by TheInternetGuy · · Score: 0

      I live in Japan, and people here has also been telling me that they related earthquakes with warming weather. I used to laugh and say that was an impossible correlation, but maybe not....?

      --
      If my comment didn't sound as good in your head as it did in mine, then I guess we all know who's to blame
    16. Re:Holy grail? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To be fair, we built a nuclear plant with protections from the tsunami, the tsunami was just larger than the designers thought could reasonably occur. I mean if we make the wall 30 meters, the next tsunami might be 100 meters tall! ;)

      On the other hand, if we could get warnings like "There is an 80% change of a 6.0 or larger earthquake in the next 3 days", I think a large number of people would take off work, avoid being somewhere they could get stuck. Maybe get out of their high-rise building and hang out in the middle of the park instead, etc.

      What's more, things like the power plants could be shut down as a precaution if the prediction was actually right most of the time.

      At the same time, there is not much one can effectively do, given such warning.

  3. Need to predict magnitude by perpenso · · Score: 1

    So does this mean we just might have a reliable earthquake detector, or is it only a sometimes-thing?

    Or it may be a too-often-thing. Many earthquakes are small, barely noticeable. It would be more useful if the magnitude could also be predicted.

  4. Do you know what Radon is? No? Goodnight. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    As an aside, studies have shown that naturally released radon will considerably increase the levels of radiation in the area. Could this, in part, be responsible for the increased rad levels measured around Japan in the time following the quake, and perhaps around the world (considering the magnitude of the earthquake)?

    Why haven't we heard of this radiation "concern" following other quakes? Probably because no Nuclear Plants were melting down at time to draw public attention away from the quake itself.

    1. Re:Do you know what Radon is? No? Goodnight. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The concern about rad levels after the quake were measurements of Xe-133, which is a very useful radioactive tracer material - short term beta burst, and a gas for wide dispersal. I assume it was detected by looking for betas of the right energy, via satelite, as the technique is also useful for detecting nuke weapons tests.

  5. Radon release by fridaynightsmoke · · Score: 1

    If there was a large release of Radon days before the quake; is it possible that a certain proportion of the elevated radiation levels locally are due to this, rather than releases of radioactive material (iodine/caesium/etc) from the Fukushima power station? Was there anything detected on local radiation detectors prior to the nuclear incident?

    This isn't a "there was no release from Fukushima it was all radon!!" post (because there quite clearly was), I'm just intrigued

    --
    This is a substitute for a clever sig that fits within the maximum number of characters.
    1. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      No, radon and daughter products make different nuclides than uranium daughter products. Also radon (and daughters) only last a few days.

    2. Re:Radon release by blair1q · · Score: 1

      If there was a large release of Radon days before the quake, was the sea effervescent?

      I'm serious. Enough of a substance to raise the temperature of that much atmosphere is a lot of that substance. I'd expect simmering if not outright foaming. We should see the sea getting warmer and bubbling like soda, too.

      Otherwise, I call simple weather.

    3. Re:Radon release by slick7 · · Score: 1

      No, radon and daughter products make different nuclides than uranium daughter products. Also radon (and daughters) only last a few days.

      It becomes a real problem when trapped by an inversion layer.

      --
      The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
    4. Re:Radon release by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      Also radon (and daughters) only last a few days.

      And this is exactly why radon exposure, unlike iodine and cesium exposure, will actually kill you. Iodine exposure will cause thyroid cancer. Survival rate > 99.9%. Cesium exposure can only kill through radiation sickness, which requires massive doses (you need > 10g in the lungs before levels get truly dangerous. Even smoking the stuff will not cause that).

      Radon, on the other hand, will cause lung cancer. Survival rate ~ 30% (and that's 5 years after the diagnosis. 20 years after diagnosis we're not even talking 10%, but that's partly because people hardly ever get diagnosed with lung cancer before they're 55). Generally you will end up ingesting radon through drinking water, which is doubly bad. It's a naturally occuring element, that is linked to cancer increases where the natural exposure is higher than normal (ironically, fresh spring water is the main cause of increased radon exposure).

      According to the WHO, radon (the natural background level) is the leading cause of cancer after tobacco.

    5. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      Nah. But it does become a real problem with trapped inside your house.

    6. Re:Radon release by Dunbal · · Score: 0

      There is this thing called causality. It tends to keep things in chronological order. I know that concepts like "before" and "after" an event are strange to you, but they do make a difference. The math just won't let you swap them around like that unless you're very bad at carrying the signs.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    7. Re:Radon release by fridaynightsmoke · · Score: 1

      There is this thing called causality. It tends to keep things in chronological order. I know that concepts like "before" and "after" an event are strange to you, but they do make a difference. The math just won't let you swap them around like that unless you're very bad at carrying the signs.

      Eh?

      --
      This is a substitute for a clever sig that fits within the maximum number of characters.
    8. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      "Cesium exposure can only kill through radiation sickness", or cancer. Cesium-137 releases a gamma-ray at about 660 keV and exposes you when it is not in your body--though you can also eat it and get the beta particle it releases as well.

      After above ground nuclear testing, the radiation level down wind from the test sites would increase after a rain fall, and only return to normal with cesium-137's 30 year half-life.

      Iodine has other pathways of exposure as well, it is not just thyroid cancer that it can cause.

    9. Re:Radon release by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      No, radon and daughter products make different nuclides than uranium daughter products. Also radon (and daughters) only last a few days.

      Well, yes, but remember radon is a uranium daughter product, for some isotopes at least.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    10. Re:Radon release by Dcnjoe60 · · Score: 2

      Nah. But it does become a real problem with trapped inside your house.

      Actually, no. The Radon gas has a short half life, and in a few days it is gone. What causes a problem in a house, or any building is not the radon gas trapped there, but the continual radon gas leaking into the building.

    11. Re:Radon release by geekoid · · Score: 1

      You can't come to the conclusion until you get the definition for larger release.
      Sure. it's about normal, but how much is that?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    12. Re:Radon release by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It sorda helps if you read the comment properly before leaking stupid from your fingertips

      "Before". Radon detected 'before' power plant trashed. Cannot have come from Nuclear Plant
      "After" Radon detected 'after' power plant trashed. May have come from Nuclear Plant OR may have come from fault OR a bit of both.

      i.e. "is it possible that a certain proportion of the elevated radiation levels locally are due to this, rather than releases of radioactive material"

      See? Causality maintained. Time running forward as normal

    13. Re:Radon release by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      The isotopes involved in the elevated radiation levels have been determined, mostly by gamma spectroscopy. The main culprits are iodine and cesium isotopes. Radon is only a factor if it gets trapped, like in cellars for example. The place I was born has granite bedrock, which has quite some radon emission - so in some places, people had to install ventilation systems in their cellars. The high backgrounds in Japan, however, are measured in the open, where radon is basically no problem because of atmospheric dilution. So it is probably safe to assume that a possibly radon contribution to the contamination measured in the topsoil is in the sub-% range.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    14. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      The usual remediation technique is to ventilate when you have elevated radon levels, and tests are used to confirm that this works (and it basically always does).

      Obviously you need both radon coming in and a house that traps it.

    15. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      *facepalm* That is right. There are three main sources of naturally occurring radiation: thorium, uranium, and potassium. Radon is part of the uranium series. Though, the natural uranium series does not include fission products.

    16. Re:Radon release by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WTF? 10 grams of cesium in your lungs will make you look like the Nazi guy in Indiana Jones who looked into the Ark.

      Perhaps you meant Gy (grays)?

    17. Re:Radon release by sjames · · Score: 1

      Radon decays to lead 210 (in several steps) with a half-life of 22 years.

    18. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      Yes, this huge disparity between the half-lives means that any given activity of radon will lead to basically zero activity of lead-210.

    19. Re:Radon release by slick7 · · Score: 1

      The usual remediation technique is to ventilate when you have elevated radon levels, and tests are used to confirm that this works (and it basically always does).

      Obviously you need both radon coming in and a house that traps it.

      and an inversion layer.

      --
      The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
    20. Re:Radon release by sjames · · Score: 1

      Compared to radon, lead 210 is fairly low activity, but it's hardly zero. I doubt it's contribution to the readings is large, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear it was non-zero.

    21. Re:Radon release by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      The flow is soil -> house -> outside. Speeding up step 2 is how you decrease the radon level in your house. Slowing down step one is not practical--you would have to replace the soil under your house. An inversion layer (unless in your basement) is irrelevant.

    22. Re:Radon release by slick7 · · Score: 1

      The flow is soil -> house -> outside. Speeding up step 2 is how you decrease the radon level in your house. Slowing down step one is not practical--you would have to replace the soil under your house. An inversion layer (unless in your basement) is irrelevant.

      An inversion layer of warm air is capped by a layer of cold air thus keeping the warm and any elements in the air close to the ground. This is what set off the air sampling detectors at the nuclear facility where I trained.

      --
      The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
  6. No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by digitaldc · · Score: 0

    ...or flood zones, tsunami zones, or any other areas where natural disasters are more LIKELY to happen.
    Alternatively, we could fast-track the production and efficiency of green, renewable energy which sounds like the best solution since it is extremely difficult to predict an earthquake.

    --
    He who knows best knows how little he knows. - Thomas Jefferson
    1. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Draknor · · Score: 1

      Is there, realistically, an area on Earth that does NOT have some likelihood of natural disasters?

      Speaking about the US specifically, North Dakota not at much risk for earthquakes or tsunamis, but they do get tornadoes, blizzards/heavy snow, spring flooding, etc. Not to mention that its pretty far away from the population centers that actually *need* the electricity being generated, so then you are looking at transmission costs, capacity, maintenance (and of course the risks associated with those).

    2. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Troed · · Score: 1

      Yes, Sweden.

      Please move all valuable infrastructure here.

      (I'm only somewhat joking - the only real risk is that we're far enough up north to be quickly affected when the next ice age comes along)

    3. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by blair1q · · Score: 1

      green, renewable energy

      No such thing. Not in the quantities needed to supply our activities. We'd have to ration light, heat, all mechanical activities, and food (which is energy too) to fit into the budget that would give us. And ban breeding.

      We need to stop using fossil fuels, build nuke plants, and continue in the search for high-efficiency solar power.

    4. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by afidel · · Score: 2

      Let's see, it would take covering 15% of all flat land in Japan with 10% efficient PV panels to produce the same amount of electricity as they used in 2008 (1,000TWHr's) (~75,000km^2 flat ground, ~3kWHr/m^2/day). It would only cost about $4.5 Trillion to do. Oh and that doesn't account for storage, distribution, or maintenance costs or the fact that you'd need a much larger installation to handle peak demand. I'm not sure that spending 6% of GDP per year (figure other costs are about equal to panel costs over 30 years) just for electricity generation is something Japan is willing to do even after this disaster.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    5. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by blair1q · · Score: 1

      Avoiding natural disasters is a canard. Systems can be designed to tolerate worst-case scenarios. The problem at Fukushima is they didn't design for worst-case. They designed for events that weren't nearly far enough out on the tail of the distribution. Someone murdered Japan for a couple of bucks.

    6. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by vlm · · Score: 1

      Not to mention that its pretty far away from the population centers that actually *need* the electricity being generated

      Its apparently much cheaper to move the population than to build provably perfectly indestructible infrastructure.

      One big problem is attitude. A blizzard (of which I've survived a hundred or so) is pretty much no big deal for the non-darwin award winners who live there and know what to do. Its just windy snow, who cares other than journalists trying to hype it up. A coastie transplant who never saw snow before might run around like a chicken with its head cut off before their first blizzard, but for the natives its pretty much a nice excuse for a day off.

      Another problem is people tend to be pretty apathetic about stuff they expect and experience on a regular basis; look at big city dwellers attitudes toward high crime, or Californian attitudes toward earthquakes, for example. Forcing people away from an area that gets a hurricane once a generation, is going to be ... difficult. Best finish getting rid of civil rights before bothering to try it.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    7. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by vlm · · Score: 1

      it would take covering 15% of all flat land in Japan

      Why do PV panels require flat land? Or, for that matter, land?

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    8. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by afidel · · Score: 1

      Because building a solar farm on mountains or floating barges is going to be even more expensive.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    9. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      US Southwest.

    10. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by chemicaldave · · Score: 1

      Colorado is pretty safe...except for bears.

    11. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by SilentStaid · · Score: 1

      Philadelphia... the only disasters that occur with any regularity here generally relate to an increased choking hazard risk right around playoff time.

    12. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      "Murdered Japan" ... I don't know where you get your news, but Japan is very much alive.

      Also, please remember the current death tolls :
      -> the actual disaster : 12813 and counting
      -> the nuclear meltdown : 0 (1 badly burnt, and 2 people got smacked against the building by the tsunami, then died. They are not counted. Although around 2000 people are temporarily relocated, the large majority of them were relocated because of the tsunami when it destroyed their houses)

      Frankly, I think that if you want to reduce deaths during quakes and tsunami's ... you don't have to worry about nuclear plants. In fact, you could let them melt down entirely, and feed the local cooling water to the country's babies and you would still barely increase the death count.

      Instead, worry about trains, cars, buildings, ... Worry, even, about roof-mounted solar panels falling down and wind towers toppling. They cause more deaths than all damaged nuclear plants together.

      Don't forget ... sometimes systems fail. The high speed train to north Japan followed exact procedure after the quake. They stopped the train using the emergency brakes. They locked everything down, disconnected the power systems and evacuated the passengers, got the local police present and got medical aid. Every procedure (presumably) followed to the letter. Then the tsunami came. There were no survivors. Not one.

      Sometimes, you're just fucked.

    13. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      No such thing. Not in the quantities needed to supply our activities. We'd have to ration light, heat, all mechanical activities, and food (which is energy too) to fit into the budget that would give us. And ban breeding.

      Not in any quantities. Not a single millionth of a picowatt. Any such energy would violate the second law of thermodynamics.

      In practice. Oil use means doing :
      sun -> plants -> tectonic movement -> heating up the stuff -> more tectonic movement -> digging it up -> using the energy

      The plants used in oil -> energy conversion were long dead.

      BUT: "renewable energy"

      sun -> using the energy
      sun -> wind -> using the energy

      See what is missing in that chain ? "plants" ...

      I don't get people that think that directly using solar power will be better for nature. We have to steal the energy from plants directly when using solar or wind power (yes, it's sometimes hard to point out which plants exactly are affected by a specific solar panel. However, there's no getting out from under thermodynamics : if you're getting power from the sun, that can only happen if some plant is not receiving it).

      Large scale solar or wind power implementations will not be good for nature. Right now the effect is a drop in an empty bucket, but that won't remain so.

    14. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by bluemonq · · Score: 1

      PRODUCING renewable energy is relatively cheap and easy. STORING renewable energy is not.

    15. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by DMiax · · Score: 1

      Of course solar panels will never overcome 10% efficiency, especially if (as the OP said) we invest heavily in researching ways to improve efficiency. This is why we should not fund research that could improve efficiency of solar panels. Because it will obviously not improve the efficiency. You are perfectly right!

      You are also right that we should not destroy non-solar plants because for now it is not practical. And as everyone knows to built a solar plant you have to destroy all non solar plants, because they hate each other like dwarves and elves. No, we cannot afford to destroy all our power, so we cannot build any single solar plant.

      Which, by the way is not made of solar panels.

    16. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go on then, I dare ya. Design to tolerate this one then!

      Natural dsaster No 1: Comet hits Nuclear Plant (see Kamil, Mahuika, Wabar, or Tunguska)

    17. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Tornadoes are easy to guard against (build it beefy or ideally underground). Hurricanes and floods are easy to avoid if you have your pick of any location. Blizzards and heavy snow are more of an inconvenience than a danger. So you can pick just about any inland location on any big continent, as long as you avoid Asia.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    18. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by geekoid · · Score: 0

      False dichotomy.

      It's not one OR the other. it's both safe modern nuclear plant, and real green energy...which would be solar.

      When a 1 sqr meter solar panel can produce 900+watts in direct sun, we can talk about removing Nuclear..which is one of the greenest base loaf powers we have.

      It's really math. we need X. current we get Y from none CO2 emmiting bases.
      So we need X-Y more power.
      Current, we can NOT gt (X-y) amount of power from green source and still ahve any land over for anything else.

      With time, we may, in the mean time Modern nuclear plants that burn 'waste' material, Industrial Solar thermal, and solar panels should be our practical focus, with money spent on research, fusion and better solar. If we wait until we have practical wide scale base load green power, we will wait to long.

      Based on what we know now. Availability and consumption, and that it can take a decade to built these plants, do you REALLY want to wait 10+ years before deciding to take appropriate action?

      It makes no sense. Lets say we are building a moder reactor, and and Dr. McPhd invents a 99% efficient solar cell that he can manufacture for a penny a watt. Then we can say, well we don't really need these plants and stop. And modern plants that burn waste have a residual material that is back to background levels in 200-500 years. That is something we can manage.

      OTOH, once energy availability gets to a certain point, you can't even start.

      And now I want to create a web comic called Dr. McPhd.
      Obviously eh would be a cryopractor... yes, I would spell it that way... because his specialty would be reviving cryogenicaly frozen people from the future

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    19. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      A Blizzard can shut down infrastructure; which has a hole lot of risks involved.
      Either a blizzard is a big deal, or you are all lazy slackers who take a day off for events that aren't a big deal.

      I've been to the midwest, so I wouldn't put my money on you all being slackers.

      Bore? certainly, but slackers? no, not really.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    20. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      The crack, lay it off. It is not good for you. I mean, it was always clear that you are a flaming idiot, but, dude... calling you crazy as a shithouse rat would be an insult to all upstanding shithouse rats in the world....

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    21. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Khyber · · Score: 1

      "I don't get people that think that directly using solar power will be better for nature. We have to steal the energy from plants directly when using solar or wind power"

      I can think of several locations where you aren't stealing from plants, because plants simply don't exist.

      And they just so happen to be pretty much uninhabited by anything else due to the extreme conditions, such as a lack of available water and insane heat (or lack of,) which means they can't survive there at all.

      It's called the desert, and in orbit.

      The only major ecological impact we'll have is all of the mining done to get the resources needed to power the entire planet from solar, and of course logistics involved in transport, etc.

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    22. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Khyber · · Score: 1

      Except you'd get MORE power building on mountains where photon flux density is higher, and floating barges would be a waste when you've got tidal energy.

      Next?

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    23. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by rahvin112 · · Score: 1

      The point you missed is that panels can be mounted to the roofs of already existing buildings. It's a simple fact but if we covered the roofs of every building with solar panels we would have more power than we could use (probably ever) during daylight hours.

      The OP also made a serious mistake in taking the initial build-out costs as a yearly cost. Solar panels are typically warrantied to not fail for 25 years. Depending on type they can reliably produce power for an unknown period (there are panels built in the 70's still in operation, although amount of power produced declines gradually over time) although a certain number will die every year. It's been estimated that if you can put panels on every building that the yearly maintenance and panel replacement costs would be approximately what we spend on generation and maintenance anyway and in the panels favor is that there are no replacement costs for 25 years due to the warranty nor are there any emissions or resources used in the generation.

      Solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and others like wave generation are the future. Yes they are more labor and maintenance but they also don't consume resources in the power generation. Don't get me wrong, I still fully support Nuclear as a viable night and peak power provider. Personally I'd rather my money for power was spent on fueling US jobs than going to some oil baron that's using the money to fund terrorism (Saudi's) or going to someone like Chavez who's trying to destroy Venezuelan free society in the name of communism while enriching his family and friends.

    24. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can you give us the complete calculation about that ? especially the part where you equate 1Km with 1000m, and not 1000000m ?

    25. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by shermo · · Score: 1

      If nuclear power plants aren't economical at the moment they're going to be much, much worse if they're only allowed to generate power at night.

      Solve the battery problem, then everything else falls into place.

      --
      Insanity: voting in the same two parties over and over again and expecting different results
    26. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The sun rains down more energy on this planet in less than 12 hours than the human race uses in a whole year. I don't think us drawing off a small part of it for renewable energy is going to affect the natural world enough to notice except maybe a bit in the immediate vicinity of the power station.

    27. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Nuclear power is good for base load but not much good for peak or periodic power. You can't just power up a nuclear plant in a number of minutes, it takes hours at least. I suppose you could just keep them running at full power and shunt the steam around the turbines when you don't need power but that's not very efficient.

    28. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by mug+funky · · Score: 1

      i think the locals would be more worried about the comet.

      it would suck though. it would be like a dirty bomb over the entire earth.

    29. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by smellotron · · Score: 1

      However, there's no getting out from under thermodynamics : if you're getting power from the sun, that can only happen if some plant is not receiving it

      Plants absorb limited wavelengths of light (chlorophyll is green, therefore it reflects green and must absorb something else). Maybe someone can devise a solar panel that sits above the terrestrial level and absorbs the complement of the plant's absorbed spectrum, transmitting the rest to our leafy overlords...

    30. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by afidel · · Score: 1

      No, I amortized the $4.5T and another $4.5T for infrastructure, maintenance, and installation and spread it over 30 years. This of course doesn't include the time value of money but it was an easy way to show that it was unfeasible, 6% of GDP just for current electricity generation capacity in insane.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    31. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Forty+Two+Tenfold · · Score: 1

      Actually, Japan decided to use offshore wind. I expect they might conside the addition of building-integrated photovoltaics.

      --
      Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
    32. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Forty+Two+Tenfold · · Score: 1

      not much good for peak or periodic power

      What you can anticipate, you can accomodate.

      --
      Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
    33. Re:No more dangerous plants on fault lines... by Forty+Two+Tenfold · · Score: 1

      IIRC wind blows at night as well. Incidentally Japan chose wind. Offshore.

      --
      Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
  7. Yeah yeah.... by SloppySevenths · · Score: 0

    We all know this is a cover story for HAARP .

    1. Re:Yeah yeah.... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      haha. If we learned anything from Katrina, the recent earth quakes and tsunami..it' a pretty on reliable way to kill people in any quantity to be effective.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  8. So the real question this raises is by Intron · · Score: 1

    what are "knock on effects"?

    --
    Intron: the portion of DNA which expresses nothing useful.
    1. Re:So the real question this raises is by blair1q · · Score: 1

      Effects caused by the original effects.

      E.g., giant earthquake has the effect of causing a giant tsunami, the knock-on is that the tsunami knocks out the generators at the nuke plant, and so on and so on, knocking on until eventually someone gets fired for not wearing their dosimeter at the Tepco HQ in Tokyo.

    2. Re:So the real question this raises is by Intron · · Score: 1

      Oh. So "knock on effects" are what we used to call "effects".

      --
      Intron: the portion of DNA which expresses nothing useful.
    3. Re:So the real question this raises is by sjames · · Score: 1

      Usually, someone answers the door :-)

  9. Science IS SO FUCKING COOL! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This story is exactly why I love science. Go NASA!

    www.awkwardengineer.com

  10. inb4 HAARP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    :D

    1. Re:inb4 HAARP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Slow.

  11. I wonder by airfoobar · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If this has anything with the mysterious white lights that were reported during the quake (apparently not an entirely uncommon, but still unexplained, phenomenon), and if there could be any connection with what some researchers are saying about major earthquakes being linked with solar flare activity.

    1. Re:I wonder by blair1q · · Score: 1

      Ball lightning is unexplained?

      Earthquakes cause changes in stresses in piezoelectric rock (e.g., quartz, which is very common). Massive piezo charges form, causing discharges, causing plasmas, i.e., ball lightning.

      Now, while this is explainable, it's incredibly difficult to prove, because to prove it you need objective evidence, and to do that you have to have systems in place to observe an earthquake, which means you have to, in some way, predict an earthquake to occur at some time in some locale, which is not hard conceptually but involves enormous locales and time spans, and so is something we haven't yet got the fiduciary gonads to pay for.

    2. Re:I wonder by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can you site the piezoelectric cause of the earthquake lights or is this purely speculation on your part?

    3. Re:I wonder by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 1

      which means you have to, in some way, predict an earthquake to occur at some time in some locale, which is not hard conceptually but involves enormous locales and time spans, and so is something we haven't yet got the fiduciary gonads to pay for.

      Or, you know, you could launch a detector into space, aim it at a large part of the globe and then press "record" ... Don't we do that already ?

    4. Re:I wonder by Wraithlyn · · Score: 1

      When was ball lightning explained?

      Wiki's summary states: "the true nature of ball lightning is still unknown".

      There was an article going around about a year ago theorizing that some ball lightning may be "magnetically induced hallucinations".

      Doesn't seems very explained to me. Am I missing something?

      --
      "Mind, as manifested by the capacity to make choices, is to some extent present in every electron." -Freeman Dyson
    5. Re:I wonder by blair1q · · Score: 1

      That's more expensive than putting a few hundred thousand of them on the ground.

    6. Re:I wonder by blair1q · · Score: 1

      No. This is scientific, and called a "hypothesis." And, based on all available data about the creation of ball lightning and the activity of earthquakes, is a predictable result. I.e., if nobody had ever seen it before, we should have been able to predict that someone eventually would see it. Then their seeing it would be considered data. Oh wait, we can just pretend nobody'd seen it before this quake, then reason that because they saw it, it's data. So the prediction is accurate, and it's no longer merely a hypothesis, it's now a theory. You can cite me.

      Hope that helps.

    7. Re:I wonder by khallow · · Score: 1

      That's more expensive than putting a few hundred thousand of them on the ground.

      Depends on the relative cost. A few hundred thousand detectors is a big cost, especially when you consider logistics (particularly, getting data from the detectors to a database and keeping the network running). Space-based detection systems need not be that expensive. There are other features and drawbacks to each system. Eg, satellite has more trouble with weather or ground-based systems only work where you place the detectors.

    8. Re:I wonder by khallow · · Score: 1

      about major earthquakes being linked with solar flare activity

      While a solar flare has the energy to kick off an earthquake, there's no mechanism for passing that energy through Earth's magnetic field, atmosphere, and ocean into the ground where it can help trigger the quake.

      For example, a big flare can cause trouble for human power grids, but it's not that big, energy-wise. I doubt the ground around a fault is more efficient at intercepting energy from a solar flare than a very low resistance network of wire spanning a continent.

    9. Re:I wonder by thogard · · Score: 1

      There are more sightings of angles, ghosts, sea monsters and UFOs around areas with high levels of piezoelectric rock and it appears that the apparitions are related to cultural influences. I'm wondering if people who weren't predisposed to see angles or aliens would just see odd lights.

    10. Re:I wonder by sjames · · Score: 2

      Ball lightning is unexplained?

      That is correct. There are a few ideas on what it could be, some more convincing than others, but due to the difficulty of observing the natural ball lightning, we can't really be sure which (if any) is correct.

    11. Re:I wonder by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, you're missing the fact that this aspie (like all aspies) Knows Everything.

  12. In rural Greece we have a word for that by Eugenia+Loli · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In my mother country, Greece, we have a word for this: koufovrasi. Supposedly (or so the superstition goes), a few hours before an earthquake, the weather becomes hot, stale, like you're choking, and it's like the sound doesn't travel as much (that's why it's called as such, which in free translation it means "deaf, boiled weather"). In the villages of the mountain Epirus, this is a known "sign" that an earthquake might hit soon. I personally experienced this kind of weather once or twice during in my early life there, but I don't remember if an earthquake ever hit soon afterward or not.

    1. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Obivously it didn't hit, or you wouldn't still be here to post about it.

    2. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Obivously it didn't hit, or you wouldn't still be here to post about it.

      By your logic everyone dies if close to an earthquakes... Black Pearl anyone?

    3. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 1

      You've never lived in a quake zone, have you. (Note the lack of question mark.) When I lived in California, the typical reaction was "did you feel that, too? Anyway, as I was saying...."

      --
      Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
    4. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Obviously everyone dies in every earthquake.

    5. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by pudding7 · · Score: 1

      Here in California, we call it "earthquake weather" when you have a real hot day out of nowhere.

    6. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Eugenia+Loli · · Score: 1

      Epirus in Greece, where I'm coming from, is a quake zone btw, we have "feel-able" earthquakes regularly there (at least once or twice a year). The biggest ones, where people died, were in 2004, and then back in 1981.

    7. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In San Francisco, we call a real hot day out of nowhere "some time in October".

    8. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 1

      In San Francisco, we call a real hot day out of nowhere "some time in October".

      And, by "real hot" you mean 71 F?

      --
      Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
    9. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by luder · · Score: 1

      That's interesting. Here in Portugal we also have that superstition, although no special word for it, afaik. Curiously, hours before the latest strong quake (6.0, Richter scale, 12/2009), I remember thinking to myself about the "earthquake heat" that could be felt on that particular hot night. Weird coincidence, I am sure, since the epicenter was located 265 km (165 miles) away.

    10. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by demonbug · · Score: 1

      Here in California, we call it "earthquake weather" when you have a real hot day out of nowhere.

      No we don't.

    11. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by PRMan · · Score: 1

      And then, climatologists get on TV and tell us that we're all wrong and there's no relationship between rapid temperature changes and earthquakes...

      --
      Peter predicted that you would "deliberately forget" creation 2000 years ago...
    12. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by lenzm · · Score: 1

      Here in Chicago we call that Tuesday.

    13. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by geekoid · · Score: 1

      In reality, they call it confirmation bias. as has been shown many times.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    14. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by petsounds · · Score: 1

      The Californian who equated "earthquake weather" to a hot day surprise is off the mark. But long-time Californians (moreso Los Angeles and San Francisco denizens I suspect) know of earthquake weather, and it's more that feeling of suffocating, stale stillness in the air that you mention. I have a remembrance of that sort of weather when the Northridge, CA quake struck. Perhaps the feeling is attributable to an increase in barometric pressure? I think in LA it's more associated with humid, partly overcast weather conditions, but that may be a psychological element at play, as LA is rarely humid.

    15. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by bye · · Score: 1

      In reality, they call it confirmation bias. as has been shown many times.

      Or (in Greece) it might have to do with the stress caused by thermal expansion of large amounts of sun heated rock surface during extreme hot weather: providing the last straw to the thousands of years build-up of rock layer stress which finally breaks the back of the camel.

      Just like a single person can trigger a big avalanche.

    16. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Very interesting. As far as I know Albanians don't have a word for this but it is general mythology/superstition here too.

    17. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here in Arizona we call that normal

    18. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by kaizokuace · · Score: 1

      haha this made me laugh. And yea that's not earthquake weather. socal is just fuckin retarded and its cold and then hot and then who knows! randomly! cant ever get used to one damn setting!

      --
      Balderdash!
    19. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by kbahey · · Score: 1

      Across the sea, in Alexandria, Egypt, we have that kind of weather regularly in summer. It is very hot, the air is still, and the sea is dead calm.

      Never ever did we associate it with an earthquake, neither in as a superstition, nor for real.

    20. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by khallow · · Score: 1

      Or (in Greece) it might have to do with the stress caused by thermal expansion of large amounts of sun heated rock surface during extreme hot weather

      Solar heat doesn't penetrate very far. A foot of earth (roughly 30 cm) is a very good insulator in buildings. And you can dig a few meters down to soil that is the average annual temperature for your region. So where do earthquakes happen? Typically they start tens of kilometers down (5-25 km down is common, with some quakes going as deep as 200-300 km). The ruptures often manifest on the surface (as in the case of the tsunami generated from the Japanese earthquake), but I doubt there's any serious force on the underlying fault coming from the surface.

    21. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here in Australia, we call that summer.

    22. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because everyone in Southern California dies every time there's an earthquake. 100% casualty rate.

      Idiot.

    23. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by wangerx · · Score: 1

      Holy Sh!t. Reading your comment just may just explain the strange phenomena I felt when I was a kid. A few days before Mount St. Helens blew we experienced eerie weather conditions. I have told this story to a number of people over the years, how there was a really strange shift in conditions. I lived near Battle Ground, WA, which is 50mi. SSW of St. Helens. It was 8pm or so in the evening and time to suit up and head down to the barn to feed the horses. Two steps out the door and WHAM - warm, dead air. So warm it gave me the creeps! So strange that to this day I can remember vividly where I stood and my surroundings well past dusk. I went back in and shed my jacket and told my brother to come outside and check it out and then proceeded to check the news to see if she finally blew, not yet, but days laters.

      So perhaps this radon precedes volcanic eruptions too?

      (Hmm, your message was posted exactly 31 years and 6 hours after the eruption.)

    24. Re:In rural Greece we have a word for that by Forty+Two+Tenfold · · Score: 1

      No, you have frost and snow in summer in Australia.

      --
      Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
  13. Connect the dots for us by spun · · Score: 2

    We have been blinded by the Vast Oligarchical Masonic Banking Illuminati Conspiracy (or VOMBIC) and we can not see the forest for the trees. Please enlighten us, how did the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Project cause the release of radon, local ionization of the lower atmosphere, and subsequent water vapor condensation leading to localized lower atmospheric heating?

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    1. Re:Connect the dots for us by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      VOMBIC did not do that, the reptilians did. They are in charge of High Frequency Active Auroral Research Project for Sea Earth Air and Land.

    2. Re:Connect the dots for us by BergZ · · Score: 1

      Well sure, but they had help from the People Front of Judea.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    3. Re:Connect the dots for us by lgw · · Score: 1

      You have only the word of the VOMBIC-controlled media that any of that happened - these "facts" that make you doubt that HAARP was responsible are disinformation planted for just this purpose!

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    4. Re:Connect the dots for us by slick7 · · Score: 1

      We have been blinded by the Vast Oligarchical Masonic Banking Illuminati Conspiracy (or VOMBIC) and we can not see the forest for the trees. Please enlighten us, how did the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Project cause the release of radon, local ionization of the lower atmosphere, and subsequent water vapor condensation leading to localized lower atmospheric heating?

      Piezo-electric effect.

      --
      The mind conceives, the body achieves, the spirit manifests.
    5. Re:Connect the dots for us by smelch · · Score: 1

      My God, it encompasses earth and land? Fucking reptilians, is nothing safe?

      --
      If I can just reach out with my words and touch a butthole, just one, it will all be worth it.
    6. Re:Connect the dots for us by zach_the_lizard · · Score: 1

      Hey now! Wait just one minute! We reptilians strongly deny any involvement, and are disgusted with this slandering of our good name. We suggest trying the World Zionist-Nazi International Alien Conspiracy (WZNIAC).

      --
      SSC
    7. Re:Connect the dots for us by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      HARRP SEAL is indeed terrifying.

    8. Re:Connect the dots for us by spun · · Score: 1

      Do not be fooled by their furry cuteness. They would just as soon kill you and everyone you love, for fun.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    9. Re:Connect the dots for us by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      Conspiracy theorists are too busy making shit up to bother investing time in actually learning real science.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    10. Re:Connect the dots for us by geekoid · · Score: 0

      They don't have time to learn real science because they are learning REAL science.

      Nothing is more real the caps.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    11. Re:Connect the dots for us by bickerdyke · · Score: 1

      The Wombles?????

      --
      bickerdyke
  14. Crazy Quantum Scientist Conspiracy Theory... by Kamiza+Ikioi · · Score: 1

    Or, they were experimenting with quantum physics, and the heat up was a backwards time release of energy from the meltdown to occur days later... oOoOoOo!

    I don't believe what I just said, but it sure sounds cool.

    --
    I8-D
    1. Re:Crazy Quantum Scientist Conspiracy Theory... by readin · · Score: 1

      Sounds like a Star Trek plot. Have you considered writing Sci-Fi?

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    2. Re:Crazy Quantum Scientist Conspiracy Theory... by Jason+Levine · · Score: 1

      Next all you need to do is direct that backwards time release of energy from the meltdown to cause the meltdown to occur. Closed time loop!

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    3. Re:Crazy Quantum Scientist Conspiracy Theory... by zippthorne · · Score: 1

      Meh, that's really more Syfy than Sci-Fi....

      --
      Can you be Even More Awesome?!
  15. ... Or it could be just a coincidence... by itranspire · · Score: 1

    There always exists the possibility that there could be no dependency between the earthquake and the change in the temperature of the atmosphere and it could have happened to be just an unfortunate coincidence resulting in many scientific and non-scientific heads banging themselves against the wall looking for something that isn't there at all....

  16. Quake heat effects? by Fractal+Dice · · Score: 2

    A good deal of the vibrational energy of the quake eventually will end up as waste heat, so my first question would be whether there is normally a heat plume seen over the site of a quake (adjusting for wind patterns)? There had also been a significant quake already in the area a week earlier. Can it be ruled out that this heat signature could be the result of the earlier quake's energy?

  17. Re:Cancer risks... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    While everyone was panicking over the problems with the Fukashima nuclear plants, it sounds like the real danger here is radon, which is a dangerous radioactive gas that can cause cancer after entering the respiratory tract of animals.

    I'm glad to know that I've got nothing to worry about - I'm a man, not an animal.

  18. Re:Cancer risks... by Pahroza · · Score: 1

    You're also an idiot.

  19. it traveled for miles through the water? by gumbi+west · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Radon is a gas and that part of the ocean is very deep. How would it have traveled a few miles to the surface so quickly and without dissolving? You might think that all noble gases are not soluble in water, but radon is actually fairly soluble.

    1. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bubbles?

    2. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by gumbi+west · · Score: 2

      Start a bubble of a soluble gas under a few feet of water and watch it dissolve as it goes up the water column. Nitrogen (the main component of air) is almost completely insoluble in water, so experiments performed with your lungs at the pool do not give you intuition about what happens to soluble gases.

    3. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by Khyber · · Score: 1

      most radiation travels at near-c so.............

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    4. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by LordLucless · · Score: 2

      Yeah, but most radon doesn't.

      --
      Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
    5. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by Khyber · · Score: 1

      The radon doesn't have to, just the radiation.

      READ THE ARTICLE. IT EXPLAINS SOME OF THIS.

      The rest you have to either know from paying attention in school or through cursory basic research - both of which seems to be absent here on Slashdot.

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    6. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by gumbi+west · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The article does not explain any of this. I was a radiation physicist, I've done more than cursory research.

      "The radiation" presumably means the gamma-rays, beta and alpha particles emitted by the radon and its daughters. However, none of thee could travel more than a meter in water (a lot less than the several kilometers that the ocean is deep at this point).

      The radioactive material, is the material that will decay and eventually emit radiation. The only bit of radioactive material that is potentially mobile is the radon (which is a gas at room temperature/pressure). But I don't see how it move through the water column.

    7. Re:it traveled for miles through the water? by MagusSlurpy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Solubility of gases in water is directly related to the temperature of the water. If the radon released is hot enough, it could conceivably heat the water as it's rising, impeding its ability to solubilize. Also, ocean water is pretty aerated already, so it is conceivable that it might hit the saturation point quickly.

      That being said, as the radon rises, the pressure of the ocean will decrease, the radon bubbles will expand, and the temp will drop, facilitating the dissolution of the radon. I think you're probably spot on, the radon would just hang around in the ocean, slowly ionizing it instead of rising and ionising the air. Here is one of the sources about radon being released prior to a quake, but it has no data about bubbling through bodies of water first. That paper cites a Science article, but it seems to be just about ground water, and for some reason I can't access it, though my university has a subscription.

      If anyone wants to do the math, the 50th ed. CRC lists the solubility of radon as 51 cc/100cc hot water, and 13 cc/100 cc cold water (no idea what actual temperatures those might be). I'm not sure how to reasonably estimate a volume of water for this, though.

      I also just realized that I've been reading too many British papers, since I spelled it "ionising" instead of "ionizing." Or maybe it's because I just read Thunderball

      --
      My sister opened a computer store in Hawaii. She sells C shells by the seashore.
  20. Re:Cancer risks... by flaming+error · · Score: 1

    > I'm a man, not an animal.
    Thanks for clarifying that, my brother primate.

  21. there would be false negatives and false positives by circletimessquare · · Score: 1

    but it wouldn't take a lot of money to get an early warning system up and running. its worth a try at least

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  22. Radon released before an earthquake? by FriendlyPrimate · · Score: 1

    If Radon is being released BEFORE a quake occurs, wouldn't it be insignificant to the amount of Radon released DURING and AFTER an earthquake? And therefore, if the atmosphere was heating before the earthquake, wouldn't it be doing so much more significantly during and after the earthquake, so much more so as to be obvious?

  23. HAARP perhaps?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling" Isn't this well within the reported capabilities of the HAARP project? I'm just sayin'.

  24. Nice try by markov_chain · · Score: 1

    They are trying to cover up the fact that Fukushima melted down several days before the tsunami, and actually caused the quake. But they are not fooling me! *clutches tinfoil hat*

    --
    Tsunami -- You can't bring a good wave down!
    1. Re:Nice try by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, it was HAARP! *clutches tinfoil hat tighter*

  25. Any magnetic anomaly? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This reminds me of Loma Prieta. A Stanford professor reported that there was a low frequency magnetic event before that.

    We already have some sophisticated strain guages being planted around California. Maybe we could combine that with radon counts, magnetic readings, and perhaps even ground temperature probes to build a better picture. It would all be networked in real time, and we could correlate it with the frequent small quakes. Sooner or later, we'll correlate it with a big one.

    Of course, this takes money and the state and the Fed are both tight these days...

  26. Jesse Ventura was right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's HAARP

  27. Radon transport through water by treeves · · Score: 1

    How does one account for the fact that the fault is underwater, and the radon would have to bubble up through all that water, and not dissolve in it or be carried elsewhere by currents as it came up? Also, is the activity of the radon at the concentration it might reasonably achieve in the atmosphere sufficient to account for significant ionization?

    --
    ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
    1. Re:Radon transport through water by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Radon doesn't dissolve in water. It would need to bubble up. Of course, that could take a while, especially considering how heavy a bubble of radon would be at the bottom of the ocean.

    2. Re:Radon transport through water by treeves · · Score: 1

      Of course it dissolves in water. I'm not going to look up the Henrys Law constant for it now, but all gases can dissolve in water, more so at lower temperatures.

      --
      ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
  28. My tinfoil hat tells me.. by SuperCharlie · · Score: 1

    They were only a few hundred miles off with the HAARP this time.. We'll quake you up yet NK...

  29. Not CO2? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...you mean that there is something other than man-made CO2 causing global warming? Say it ain't so...

  30. H_A_r_/R P by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    H_A_r_/R P

  31. California Resident by BadPirate · · Score: 1

    I'm gluing radon detectors to all of my clothing. When "The Big One" hits, I'll be looking down from my emergency air balloon and laughing.

    --
    - Holy crap, I've got MOD points! Who thought that was a good idea.
  32. Released from the preshock? by antifoidulus · · Score: 1

    TFA doesn't really give a time scale other than "a few days before". I wonder if at least some of this gas was released from the 7.1 preshock that occurred on the exact same fault on March 9(2 days before the big one). Could potentially explain the source.

  33. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  34. Veddy interesting by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    This is one of the most interesting items to float across SlashDot in a long time. This could be very useful.

  35. Re:Cancer risks... by Dunbal · · Score: 1

    Yes. Therefore please do the world a favor and stop breathing immediately.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  36. No it did not. by goodmanj · · Score: 5, Interesting

    No, the atmosphere did not heat up rapidly as a result of the quake. This article is total bullshit.

    1) Geology: There is no "buildup of unusual stresses" in the days before an earthquake. The stresses build up over decades: the only thing that changes suddenly is the Earth's motion in response to them.

    2) Oceanography: Any radioactive gases released by the fault (the mechanism claimed by the authors) would be released *at the bottom of the ocean*. From there it would have to dissolve in the ocean and be carried to the surface. This takes a *LONG* time.

    3) Meteorology: Any gases released will mix rapidly in the atmosphere, forming a plume stretching hundreds of miles from the source in a matter of hours. It will not form a coherent blob hovering over the fault.

    4) Statistics : the plot in question is supposedly based on "NOAA OLR data". It's been massaged to within an inch of its life, using a statistical technique which is highly sensitive to what happened not just during 2011, but to the vagaries of weather in 2006-2010. The result is a massive exercise in small-number statistics, which is then amplified by:

    5) Data visualization: Notice that the OLR "spikes" form nice concentric circles, and they seem to line up along a latitude line. Why? Because what you're seeing is data smoothed to a radius smaller than the actual size of the atmosphere being measured. The link below is to the *actual* raw NOAA AVHRR OLR data over Japan: there are only 9 real data points in the field of view shown by TFA, and they do not show any sign of a peak in OLR over northern Japan.

    https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/veC_EraWL5NUXaCbH6iROcyKBwp3MOnR9qYUE-fJ7v0?feat=directlink

    1. Re:No it did not. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, the data you link to is the data that's been massaged. Specifically, it's been highly averaged. The actual AVHRR data has much better resolution. Play around with the plotting tools at ESRL : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/db_search/DBSearch.pl?Dataset=NOAA+Interpolated+OLR&Variable=Outgoing+Longwave+Radiation

      You can generate figures for yourself that match the article's figures very neatly.

      As for the rest of your points:

      1: Contentious. Depends on the earthquake.
      2. Not clear. Depends on the size of the release, its dispersion, and the actual gas mix.
      3: Okay, yes. Which is presumably what happened. See the figures in the article--they match this scenario nicely.

    2. Re:No it did not. by goodmanj · · Score: 5, Interesting

      No, the data you link to is the data that's been massaged. Specifically, it's been highly averaged. The actual AVHRR data has much better resolution. Play around with the plotting tools at ESRL : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/db_search/DBSearch.pl?Dataset=NOAA+Interpolated+OLR&Variable=Outgoing+Longwave+Radiation

      That's exactly what I *did* use to create my figure. Though I had to use uninterpolated OLR data to get March 2011 data. Both data sets we've linked to are at 2.5 degree resolution. That doesn't prove that the paper's authors don't have access to higher resolution data, but no high-res data is available at the link they cite, and, I find it extraordinarily suspicious that their little blobs of peak OLR are spaced at exact multiples of 2.5 degrees apart, and lie exactly on the grid boxes for the ESRL data.

      You can generate figures for yourself that match the article's figures very neatly.

      No I cannot. Or rather, I can, but only by engaging in statistical and graphical flimflammery. You try it.

      As for the rest of your points:
      1: Yes, contentious, but I'm quoting the geology party line here. The extraordinary claim is that despite seismological evidence to the contrary, earthquakes are preceded by warning signs: that claim is the one which requires extraordinary proof.
      2: Very clear. The fault in question is in 7 km of water, close to a gigapascal of pressure. Because of Henry's Law, you don't have gaseous bubbles of anything at that pressure: all gases are in liquid solution. Thus, the gas molecules move with the water. Which is sloooowly.
      3: The figures do not match the expected behavior of a plume of material released from a point source on the Japanese coast.

      Oh, while we're quoting figures in the article, how about Figure 3, which show OLR "events" in Tohoku which are as large or larger than the ones they're interested in, occuring on Feb 22, 2011, and Jan 28, 2010. These are ignored because they're not larger than the error bars. But these error bars are bullshit: do we really believe that the natural variability of weather on March 9 is one sixth as much as on Feb 24? I sure don't. They're computing standard deviations using 6 data points, which is a recipe for disaster.

    3. Re:No it did not. by slyborg · · Score: 1

      Yes, when I saw arXiv, I knew I was dealing with another Sasquatch sighting. I don't know why people insist on reporting stories off there, it's basically tabloid science, aka stuff that will never pass peer review and likely never be heard about again...

    4. Re:No it did not. by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      I think he blew you out of the water with 5.

    5. Re:No it did not. by goodmanj · · Score: 2

      See, that's the thing. Some of it isn't sasquatch science. The challenge we're struggling with in the sciences is how to bail out of the physical-paper-and-copyright fiasco that is traditional publishing, while maintaining the useful peer review, editing, and reputation services the traditional publishers provide. It's an evolutionary process, and ArXiv is a duckbill platypus in that evolution.

    6. Re:No it did not. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the gentleman calls shenanigans

    7. Re:No it did not. by Kagura · · Score: 1

      Thank you for your excellent posts!

    8. Re:No it did not. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or maybe, some country up north just test fired a weather weapon...

      “Not an explosion, not a ray burst, not some kind of laser, not lightning, but a quiet and peaceful weapon,” added Zhirinovsky, warning that “whole continents will be put to sleep forever” and that “120 million will die” if anyone interfered with Russia’s claim on the Kuril Islands, which are the subject of a territorial dispute with Japan.

      Source: http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/18-May-2011/Secret-Weather-Weapons-can-kill-millions-warns-top-Russian-politician

  37. Q: How did the radon get up? by kanweg · · Score: 2

    I would expect it would easily dissolve in a couple of kilometers of ocean water above it, especially at those pressures.

    Bert

  38. Unlikely by pavon · · Score: 1

    I got pulled away from my office before submitting this, so everything has probably already been said, but in case it hasn't:

    I wondered that myself, but I don't think that would be case for a couple of reasons. Many of the detections of radioactivity did identify the radioactive specific isotopes (such as iodine, cesium) that were causing them. The ones that didn't were centered around Fukushima, unlike what you would expect from a large, distributed Radon release like the article is talking about.

    1. Re:Unlikely by Coren22 · · Score: 1

      There were some reports of higher than normal radioactivity as far away as Maine, it was reported that they thought this was from a radioactive release from Fukushima. Apparently, this could have been from the large Radon release instead.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  39. Global Warming by SnarfQuest · · Score: 1

    By definition, an increase in the temperature is Global Warming. Global Warming is only caused by Greenhouse Gases (don't you dare to claim otherwise, or the AGW folks will have you drawn and quartered). Greenhouse Gases are created only by man, and mostly by SUV's (again, see the AGW folks). Therefore, the Japan Quake was caused by SUV's.

    --
    Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
  40. There was a strong foreshock on March 8 by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

    Images in TFA show infrared activity from March 8.
    There was actually a strong foreshock on March 8 (March 9 Japan time) http://tenki.jp/earthquake/detail-3568.html
    So the infrared was probably not prior to the earthquake, but during an earthquake, i.e. the foreshock.

    --
    Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
  41. 'Earthquake clouds' in Colombia by mangu · · Score: 2

    When i was in Colombia I once saw the sky full of small round clouds. The locals told me that was a sign there would be an earthquake, and it effectively happened the next day. I never saw clouds like those again anywhere.

  42. Aahh! It's the Mr. Hell Show! by snspdaarf · · Score: 1

    Serge, the Seal of Death!

    --
    Why, without your clothes, you're naked, Miss Dudley!
  43. when visiting frisco... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When visiting or talking to any old-timers in San Francisco, they will speak of "earthquake weather", uncharacteristically hot balmy weather...

  44. Re:Cancer risks... by mug+funky · · Score: 1

    sarcasm detection algo seems to be a bit off. you might want to adjust some thresholds.

  45. CalMagNet by Slutticus · · Score: 1

    We already monitor ULF in several high risk areas. Radon counts would be interesting. "The California Magnetic Network (CalMagNet) concept involves placing Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF) based sensors along the major faults throughout California as a pilot network that will lay the groundwork for similar networks throughout the world. The data collected will allow researchers not only to validate the technique but also to provide data for the development of earthquake warning programs." http://www.quakefinder.com/joomla15/index.php/component/content/article/32

  46. CalMagNet by Slutticus · · Score: 1

    It would be interesting to add radon detectors to the CalMagNet ULF sensors that are already in place in California.
    They already look at magnetic anomolies, air conductivity, and IR (GOES).
    http://www.quakefinder.com/joomla15/index.php/earthquake-science-and-prediction

  47. EVIDENCE OF H.A.A.R.P by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Proof H.A.A.R.P is a mass murder dvice, YO.

  48. HAARP by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The tin-hatters will be convinced that the USA is using its death-star ray again.

  49. Read TFA ; not convinced. by RockDoctor · · Score: 1
    By their own criteria of ionospheric behaviour, they'd probably also have had to "predict" a major earthquake in this area around January 25th. Not good enough for a practical earthquake prediction method - but it's an interesting approach. And they do admit to the difficulty of distinguishing localised effects they're looking for from variable global effects from "space weather", so they're being rational.

    HOWEVER, whoever wrote TFS has added other crap to an interesting paper. :

    This is theorized to be the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism that occurs when large amounts of radon are released due to massive stress in the fault right before the quake. This can be detected with satellites analyzing infrared waves: 'The radioactivity from this gas ionizes the air on a large scale and this has a number of knock on effects.

    The obvious knock-on effect would be alarming readings at radiation monitors all over the area. In particular - to restate an old nuclear industry story - workers at places like Fukushima nuclear plant may well have set off alarms going into the plant for work. The evidence for this large amount of radon is ... ?

    --
    Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"