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Signs of Ozone Layer Recovery Detected

polar red writes "22 years of banning CFCs is starting to pay off. Researchers have finally been able to measure a reduction in size of the ozone layer hole, after finding the source of its fluctuations. 'Salby's results reveal a fast decline in ozone levels until the late 1990s, then a slow rebound that closely matches what theoretical calculations had predicted, says David Karoly, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, Australia. "It is the sort of result that was expected, but is the first to provide detection of an increase in Antarctic ozone levels," he says.'"

363 comments

  1. Climate Change Deniers by Drake42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why is it that the scientists can detect an ozone hole, provide a fix, show that the fix solved the problem, and then be LOUDLY IGNORED by the liars in congress.

    Oh. The CFL manufacturers had less money than the oil people. Sorry. I forgot...

    1. Re:Climate Change Deniers by mr1911 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      It is that boring old argument about correlation != causality.

      I'm not arguing that reducing CFCs and other emissions is a bad thing, but when emotions and political leanings enter the argument it is far to often to emerge wrong, not matter how right one may be.

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    2. Re:Climate Change Deniers by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The CFL manufacturers had less money than the oil people. Sorry. I forgot...

      Didn't the 'ozone hole' only become an OH MY GOD WE'RE GOING TO DIE problem after the patent on CFCs in air conditioning expired?

    3. Re:Climate Change Deniers by mangu · · Score: 1, Informative

      Why is it that the scientists can detect an ozone hole, provide a fix, show that the fix solved the problem, and then be LOUDLY IGNORED by the liars in congress.

      Oh. The CFL manufacturers had less money than the oil people. Sorry. I forgot...

      What has one thing to do with the other?

      The ozone layer hole was caused by the use of chloro-fluoro-carbon gases that decompose the O3 molecules in the stratosphere.

      Global warming is caused by the emission of gases, mostly CO2, that trap infrared radiation in the lower atmosphere.

      The ozone layer problem was solved by substituting the CFC gases for other less harmful gases.

      Solving the global warming problem is more difficult because it's difficult to replace fuels that generate CO2 with other forms of energy production without affecting some very large corporations. These corporations have created an effective propaganda effort against the idea that global warming exists.

      Given enough money, you can fool a lot of people for some time.

    4. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Are you going for the "stupidest post in slashdot history" achievment with that? And who the heck modded that interesting,please?

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    5. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You know, when there is a physical mechanism connecting two phenomena AND a correlation between them, that correlation != causation thing is simply, well, bullshit.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    6. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is a simple and easily explained mechanism by which CFC's deplete ozone. Likewise, it is easily shown how ozone in the upper atmosphere is necessary to stop us being dead.

      Climate change, on the other hand, is complicated. Fuck, it took long enough to get CFC's banned. If our release of carbons is going to change our climate for the wirst you can be sure you'll be long dead before enough people believe it to care.

    7. Re:Climate Change Deniers by tibit · · Score: 3, Informative

      Now be careful. The CFC replacements are potent greenhouse gases. Potent as in 3 orders of magnitude worse than CO2. Is it better to die of skin cancer, or of hunger due to crop failures due to draught due to raising global temperature? I don't know...

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    8. Re:Climate Change Deniers by tibit · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Global warming is caused by the emission of gases, mostly CO2, but also CFC replacements that are 1000s of times more potent than CO2.

      Fixed that for ya. Apparently Nature doesn't provide free lunches :(

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    9. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mascot · · Score: 2

      I seem to recall there being scientists back then arguing "CFC or no CFC, this will fix itself given a few decades, no reason to panic". By your logic, should we now believe whatever those people state?

      The point I'm trying to make, as others have: correlation != causality.

    10. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bunratty · · Score: 1

      How is climate change complicated? You increase the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, and the planet warms. That's about as complicated as you put a blanket over you and you keep warm. Both mechanisms decrease the heat radiated away. Over 100 years ago, Arrhenius gave estimates of global warming that closely match the latest observations. It's not complicated at all.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    11. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What has one thing to do with the other?

      And then ...

      These corporations have created an effective propaganda effort against the idea that global warming exists.

      Given enough money, you can fool a lot of people for some time.

      Which was his entire point. Geeze!

      AND I'd like to add that it is also resistance from the population in general. Many people don't want to give up their internal combustion engines - that's what it's going to take to clean up the air, solve our oil dependency problems and pretty much do nothing about Global Warming because everything we do will be more than nullified by China, India, Indonesia, and all of the billions of people who are going to burn their coal, petroleum, and everything else they can.

      We're pretty much fucked.

    12. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      The only thing that makes it complicated is the fact that you have to wade through layers upon layers of obfuscation produced by the business-as-usual propaganda machine.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    13. Re:Climate Change Deniers by onkelonkel · · Score: 1

      It took 50 years from the first Surgeon General's report on the dangers of smoking till smoking was banned here in all workplaces.

      1. These kinds of massive changes take time.
      2. Despite all the lobbying and all the PR spin and all the PAC donations and all the flat out fucking lies spouted by the tobacco industry, in the end they lost. Per capita smoking is now about 1/3 of the peak amount and trending downward.

      --
      None of them can see the clouds; The polished wings don't care.
    14. Re:Climate Change Deniers by marnues · · Score: 1

      The ozone disappearing was a much more pressing and obvious issue than global warming. I understand that we replaced one problem with another, but that's engineering. We went with the issue that would give us more time to solve. Besides, it would have been an issue anyway.

    15. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      The fact that you even use 'oil people' in a statement and believe that all deniers are in that group shows just how much bias, and the methods you use to stifle debate on the issue. I'd be ashamed to use use that as an argument. But since many in the pro-AGW use this regularly, I'll just lump you as a religious nutbag. Your methods are similar.

      --
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    16. Re:Climate Change Deniers by newcastlejon · · Score: 1

      I think the problem with the correlation != causation thing that is trotted out without fail is that people mistake it for correlation does not imply causation.

      I'm no logician so feel free to rephrase that, but the essence is that just because correlation doesn't mean causation all the time doesn't suggest that correlation doesn't mean causation some of the time.

      --
      If God forks the Universe every time you roll a die, he'd better have a damned good memory.
    17. Re:Climate Change Deniers by marnues · · Score: 1, Funny

      I'm going to admit that my understanding of the situation is also based on me "recall[ing] there being scientists" saying certain things, one of which is that the ozone hole was directly caused by massive CFC usage. That directly refutes you and is the status quo belief. You are the one with the burden of proof.

    18. Re:Climate Change Deniers by anyGould · · Score: 1

      AND I'd like to add that it is also resistance from the population in general. Many people don't want to give up their internal combustion engines - that's what it's going to take to clean up the air, solve our oil dependency problems and pretty much do nothing about Global Warming because everything we do will be more than nullified by China, India, Indonesia, and all of the billions of people who are going to burn their coal, petroleum, and everything else they can.

      We're pretty much fucked.

      No, we just need a reasonable alternative to internal combustion engines. And by "reasonable", I mean "doesn't require people to completely rework their lifestyle into an inferior version".

      I can't get to my place of employment without an internal combustion engine. There's no public transit to the area. It's in the middle of an industrial park filled with semis and heavy equipment, so riding a bike would be suicidal (not to mention a three-hour trip one-way, according to Google). Give me a way to do that without an IC engine, and I will happily take you up on it.

    19. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      The correct form would probably be "correlation does not necessitate causation", while, on the other hand, causation necessitates correlation.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    20. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bunratty · · Score: 1

      Yes, without any proposed mechanism of causality, a correlation is just a correlation and does not imply causality. But with CFCs and the ozone layer, there is a mechanism of causality. CFCs catalyze the reaction of ozone molecules breaking up into oxygen molecules.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    21. Re:Climate Change Deniers by anyGould · · Score: 1

      Slight edit: clicked the wrong button in Google, so my bike time is only one hour (walking is three).

    22. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Solandri · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's because most of the evidence supporting global warming thus far is comprised of correlation studies. As I like to say, a good correlation paper can win you a high school science fair. A good causation paper can win you the Nobel prize. Which is precisely what happened with ozone depletion. A trio of scientists came up with an elegant, predictive, and empirically accurate mechanism to explain exactly how ozone depletion was occurring, and won the Nobel prize in Chemistry for it.

      Come up with a comprehensive, predictive, and empirically accurate model for climate change, and you will probably win the Nobel prize (in something like physics, not a trophy prize like peace) and simultaneously convince the world's government that they must act. The problem with correlation studies is that they're always open to dispute since you never identify or test the actual mechanism causing the problem. That's what happened with cigarettes - for decades the medical community had tons of correlation studies saying that smoking was bad. But the government restrictions and bans didn't come about until medical researchers began to identify and confirm the mechanisms by which smoking was causing cancer.

    23. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Global warming is caused by the emission of gases, mostly CO2, but also CFC replacements that are 1000s of times more potent than CO2.

      While that may or may not be true, the amount of CFC replacements is hundreds of thousands of times less than the amount of serious green-house gases. The ozone layer itself is only composed of the equivalent of 2 centimeters worth of ozone planet-wide. It doesn't take much CFCs to mess that up.

    24. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Well, for the usual commute, electric cars should do just fine. The only infrastructure update you would probably need are charging ports at all parking lots at your workplace and your home. That should take care of 90% of commutes. The longer-term solution would be rethinking city planning, which way too often is completely focused on cars. I live in a European city which mostly did it right. Living in the city, half an hour commute with public transit and yet, still lots of green areas around my home, so it is not at all some urban wasteland.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    25. Re:Climate Change Deniers by spun · · Score: 1

      Global warming is caused by the emission of gases, mostly CO2, but also CFC replacements that are 1000s of times more potent than CO2.

      Fixed that for ya. Apparently Nature doesn't provide free lunches :(

      Oh no, Nature is charging for lunch now? Does she accept credit cards? Does "lunch" include the things necessary to create lunch, like the sun? Do I have to pay for the sun now?!? That sounds expensive.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    26. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 4, Informative

      The causation paper for climate change would win you zilch at all, since the basic mechanism has been published by Arrhenius about 130 years ago. All the open questions are more in the realm of systems theory, not in the realm of basic mechanisms.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    27. Re:Climate Change Deniers by beelsebob · · Score: 1

      Actually, that's exactly the point –causation implies correlation; and equality is equivalent to bi-implication, therefore the statement reduces to correlation does not imply correlation.

    28. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yea, like Al Gore got a Nobel for his error riddled propaganda film !

    29. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Widowwolf · · Score: 1

      Which you do realize where most of that energy comes from right..No it would not solve most of the problems..When we get 100% of our energy through Other then coal means..thats when the problems will be mostly solved

      --
      ~~"Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong." ~~Dennis Miller
    30. Re:Climate Change Deniers by cryptolemur · · Score: 5, Informative

      Oddly enough climate change is something that comes out of the physics models when you put in what we understand of the climate. It has nothing to do with correlation, it's pure mechanical causation. As it happens, the observations do confirm the model.

      And it also happens, that the exact same people who were arguing against CFC -> Ozone hole causation and smoking -> lung cancer causation started arguing against climate change. They obviously can fool some of the people all of the time.

      Oh, and the actual mechanism of how smoking causes lung cancer was partly revealed a few year back, but is still not completely understood.

    31. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Naturally that is part of the solution - there is nothing fundamentally impossible about that, though. You just gotta start at some point. Why not start with implementing an electric infrastructure that allows city traffic to go mostly electric. Apart from climate problems, you get the smog shit out of the way, even if you go with coal plants for now - the filtering is way simpler there. Then you can shift to renewables without changing your traffic infrastructure. 2-3 decades, and it can be done without pain.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    32. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bunratty · · Score: 2

      Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. The causation is trivial. That's why global warming was predicted long before it was observed.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    33. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      The GP is perfectly correct.

      You might want to read the peer reviewed literature on how ozone "holes" fluctuate with solar activity and not human made CFCs as well. Yes, they exist.

      Hugged a tree lately?

    34. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 2

      As for the smoking -> cancer mechanism, large parts of it are known for decades. Polycyclic aromates in the smoke are potent intercalators, which put themselves between basepairs in DNA and mess with replication. Given how fast biochemistry has developed in the last century, that mechanism is positively prehistoric. There are other mechanisms, some of which have been found more recently, but the basics are known for ages.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    35. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Widowwolf · · Score: 1

      Except cities who are have to have rolling blackouts..Elderly be damned, you dont need no stinking AC's...We need to power our vehicles

      --
      ~~"Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong." ~~Dennis Miller
    36. Re:Climate Change Deniers by geekoid · · Score: 1

      It's "correlation does not imply causation."
      And it's 100% correct.

      People who short hand it to != are just idiots more interested in letting people know the are 'leet' then actually understanding something.

      --
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    37. Re:Climate Change Deniers by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Ozone was a more pressing issue. And guite frankly, C02 from fossile fuel emission are such a large part of the problem, the chemicals now used to replace CFC is a drop in the bucket.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    38. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 2

      Maybe your infrastructure just sucks? I live in the first world, personally. In particular, in a country that hasn't let its grid go to shit for some decades. All I see is overcapacities. But you don't really want to argue about the possibility of changing the status quo, you are absolutely convinced that it should not be changed, therefor it CANNOT be changed. When your argument boils down to "electrification of commuter traffic will kill the elderly", well, then you'd better admit that you lost, before you dig yourself deeper into the bullshit.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    39. Re:Climate Change Deniers by geekoid · · Score: 1

      many people find causation in thing and never win the Nobel prize. It's a poor yard stick.

      And they have shown mechanisms for Global Climate Change.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    40. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Now be careful. The CFC replacements are potent greenhouse gases. Potent as in 3 orders of magnitude worse than CO2. Is it better to die of skin cancer, or of hunger due to crop failures due to draught due to raising global temperature? I don't know...

      I have extensive vitiligo, which - according to my dermatologist - practically ensures that I won't get skin cancer. Bring CFC gasses back, I say!

    41. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      Actually, it's because the alternatives to CFCs were several orders of magnitude more profitable than the CFCs themselves.

    42. Re:Climate Change Deniers by interkin3tic · · Score: 2

      when emotions and political leanings enter the argument it is far to often to emerge wrong, not matter how right one may be.

      You forgot economic interests. The problem with the climate change debate is NOT that there is too much emotion in it, it's that there is too much MONEY in pretending it's not real. The oil and coal industries throwing FUD against preventing climate change is precisely the problem with the debate.

      I suppose there would still be people who prefer to distrust scientists and or disreguard "treehuggers" just as there were/are still people who pretended cigarettes were perfectly healthy long after the tobacco industry stopped fooling people. Still, I think if it weren't for the lies, the debate would have been HOW to reduce carbon emissions ten years ago, not whether we should. We likely could have done it more gradually and cheaper, and had less damage done, than what we're facing now.

    43. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      First, some ozone-depleting compounds are even worse. For example, halons not only destroy the ozone layer but are also among the top global warming agents (by the virtue of their chemical unreactivity).

      Second, the total amount of emitted CFC-replacement gases is not large, so we can generally ignore it for now.

      Third, there are CFC replacement with less GW potential.

    44. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Well, let's add PDO and ENSO to that. Plus solar variations and cosmic rays. Oh, and clouds. Then the biosphere, which actually grows more with higher concentrations of CO2. Don't forget that the imaginary "average global temperature" doesn't tell you anything about its specific distribution, which is what *really* matters.

      If it was as simple as you say, the past 15 years would have resulted in increasing temps, along with increasing CO2. As it stands, we've seen a stall in any statistically significant increase. So even if your theory is right (which, of course, you haven't stated in a falsifiable way), it's at *least* complicated enough to stay stable for 15 years while CO2 rises.

    45. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Of course it is correct - in the absence of other evidence. The implication is done by providing the mechanism. So may I suggest the corollary "In the presence of a physically connecting mechanism between two phenomena, correlation does imply causation"?

      --
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    46. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Pray tell, how did Arrhenius state his theory of causation in a falsifiable hypothesis?

      If he didn't state it, how would *you* state it?

    47. Re:Climate Change Deniers by mangu · · Score: 0, Troll

      The ozone disappearing was a much more pressing and obvious issue than global warming.

      Yeah, right. Australians having to use extra sunblock in early spring is a much more pressing issue than droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, everywhere, right?

      See, I did say that the fossil fuel industry invests a lot in propaganda. You're buying it.

    48. Re:Climate Change Deniers by vbraga · · Score: 1

      The only infrastructure update you would probably need are charging ports at all parking lots at your workplace and your home.

      What? "Only"? This also means upgrading building infrastructure for all buildings (workspace and homes), then upgrade the electrical distribution grid (both "last mile" and long distance) to cope with the increased demand. Also, you have to generate energy for all cars, which probably means more thermoelectric, nuclear or hydro plants since this in an increase in base load where you usually can't use alternative energy solutions like solar or wind.

      It's not that simple.

      I would like to point it out also that European cities are usually small by New World or Asian standards. If you take a look at here only London make it to the list. Take a trip to São Paulo someday and go take the subway in the rush hour to see what public transport looks like in a crowded, high density city. It's not enjoyable and you're not going to make the middle/upper classes to use it even if it means a shorter commute.

      --
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    49. Re:Climate Change Deniers by rahvin112 · · Score: 1

      The amount of CFC released into the atmosphere is insignificant against the sheer volume of CO2 (millions of tons of gas versus probably less than a ton of CFC). In addition Methane is even more potent than CFC's (IIRC it is 10 times more effective at trapping heat than CO2) and is an unregulated emission just like CO2. You could do more to stop global climate change by making natural gas illegal than you would ever cause by outlawing CFC's. In fact you probably emit personally more Methane through intestinal gases than the CFC that is released due to your commercial activity (AC use, etc).

      In addition they are in a continual cycle of improvement in refrigerants now. The original badboy CFC was Freon R-12, it was replaced by R-22, which 2 years ago was replaced by R-410A (there are numerous steps in there), most cars right now use R-134A, the AC unit I just replaced uses 410A and the HVAC tech said that's standard now. Each revision improves the coolant properties along with eliminating the negative effects. R-12 was banned in the 90's, R-22 is also now banned. I have no doubt in a dozen years R-134A will be banned and a dozen after than R-410A might be as well. This doesn't even count the regulations in the US that make it illegal to vent CFC's and require that they be recovered under some rather nasty fines. When the HVAC was replaced the tech spent a good 15 minutes draining every drop of CFC from the old unit.

    50. Re:Climate Change Deniers by SnarfQuest · · Score: 1

      How is climate change complicated?

      Acording to the numerous news reports and Al Gore movies, Global Warming causes:

      1. An increase in temperature.
      2. A decrease in temperature.
      3. An increase in the hurricane frequency.
      4. A decrease in the hurricane frequency.
      5. More Earthquakes.
      6. Fewer earthquakes.
      7. A decrease in precipitation.
      8. A increase in precipitation. ...

      Ok, now try to prove that Global Warming doesn't exist. You can't, because if anything happens, or doesn't happen, it's bercause of Globsal Warming.

      --
      Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
    51. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      What observations would *not* fit the prediction? Specifically, what is your falsifiable hypothesis of carbon dioxide driven global warming?

    52. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hedwards · · Score: 2

      You're right, there are also religious nut jobs that believe that God won't allow any flooding because the Bible doesn't foresee ones. And the libertarians that are opposed to any and all regulations on the basis of them being entitled to do whatever they like so long as there isn't an indisputable conflict with other people's rights. And then don't forget the people who don't actually have any education on the matter who are skeptics mainly because Fox News tells them to be afraid of the vast liberal conspiracy to take away their rights.

    53. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Widowwolf · · Score: 1

      No I am just simply stating that there needs to be overhauls first before we attempt to make every car plugin--I happen to live in the first world, I live in Sacramento California, the Capital of the eighth largest economy in the world...But governments need to do more about making sure there is enough electricity first without cars plugging in before the try to overhaul automobiles. Maybe some more Nuclear Plants in Nevada or more regulation about energy costs.

      --
      ~~"Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong." ~~Dennis Miller
    54. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Of course we will need to make overhauls - what are we even arguing about here? After all, it's not like every IC engine will be magically converted into electric overnight. The infrastructure change is not impossible, and not even fundamental. To say it can't work is like saying "We would have to exchange every stable for a gas station to get rid of horse buggies. This will never work" - well, it worked, on the timescale of two to three decades. On the same timescale the next transition can and will work.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    55. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bunratty · · Score: 4, Informative

      The observation that would not fit the prediction would be little or no warming. The falsifiable hypothesis is that an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes warming. There are literally hundreds of published scientific papers you can read about the topic. It's been a very active area of research for decades. I'll point you to just one short summary of the research results.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    56. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      Nobel prizes are just propaganda prizes any more. They are given out like prizes in a box of Cracker Jack. What did Jimmy Carter, or Barak Obama really do to earn one? The next prize in medicine is probably about retrophrenology.

    57. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      But there 10's of thousands of times less CFC replacement gases in the atmosphere than CO2 so they are a minor component of GHG warming. By themselves they wouldn't cause enough warming to worry about. Adding them on top of CO2 and methane they don't help.

    58. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bunratty · · Score: 1

      A quick glance at a graph of worldwide temperatures assures me that there has been very significant warming over the past 15 years. Not to mention the melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice. So, yes, it seems just as simple as I say.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    59. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The radiative equilibrium between incoming sunlight and blackbody radiation for Earth would result in a temperature about 20K lower than observed, when not taking atmospheric effects into account. Accounting for absorption and reemission by atmospheric CO2 you arrive at the actual average temperature. Said spectroscopic properties of CO2 are simply measurable in the lab. I actually did the experiment in a lab session about 14 years ago - part of the physical chemistry II lab. Are you seriously questioning the existance of the greenhouse effect as such?

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    60. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      What makes you think that temperatures haven't increased in the last 15 years? 2010 was tied with 2005 for the hottest year in the GISS record. It's looking like 2012 will set a new record if an El Nino develops.

    61. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      That just shows that it's too complicated for your simple mind to understand.

    62. Re:Climate Change Deniers by ChrisMaple · · Score: 0

      It isn't all one-sided. Against the possible, but not certain, claim that any level of carbon in the air is too high, are the obvious benefits of the processes that result in "carbon" emissions, namely transportation and electricity. If you send the nation into poverty to clean the air, people who are starving aren't going to thank you. If the nation's electricity production is halved, oldsters dieing from heat stroke in Florida have been abused more than any nursing home could ever manage.

      Don't sneer at money. It's what I trade large parts of my life for, it's what I exert much of my effort for, as an intermediate step in accomplishing my life's goals. When you attack money, you attack me.

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    63. Re:Climate Change Deniers by creat3d · · Score: 1

      You do realize that there's an afwul lot of money in pretending it's real too, right?

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      Grammar nazis are to this community what excrements are to gold.
    64. Re:Climate Change Deniers by creat3d · · Score: 0

      And you fell for a convenient hoax, apparently.

      --
      Grammar nazis are to this community what excrements are to gold.
    65. Re:Climate Change Deniers by BergZ · · Score: 2

      If what you meant to say was "there's an awful lot of money in convincing people that [climate change] is real too" then I'd say:
      For every dollar spent convincing people that climate change is real there is probably a hundred dollars spent trying to convince people that climate change is a myth.

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    66. Re:Climate Change Deniers by mister_playboy · · Score: 1

      If you take a look at here only London make it to the list.

      Moscow is in Europe.

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      Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law ::: Love is the law, love under will
    67. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The question is, for the past 15 years, has there been statistically significant warming?

      Having 2010 and 2005 tied for the "hottest year" doesn't answer that question. Neither would an El Nino in 2012 answer that question.

      Here's Phil Jones' own words:

      BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

      Phil Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

    68. Re:Climate Change Deniers by interkin3tic · · Score: 2

      Between a conspiracy of the makers of solar panels, hybrid cars, nuclear power, and hippies, and a conspiracy on the part of coal and oil, I'm much more worried about the coal and oil conspiracy. They got more money.

      Anyway, my point was mainly that economic interests confused the issue. If it goes for both sides, fine, just don't say it's all "emotion" and no logic.

    69. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You're not stating a falsifiable hypothesis. You're implying that because of a spectroscopic property of CO2 measured in a lab, that your hypothesis is true (that CO2 levels drive global warming). This is not necessarily the case: you're *assuming* the conclusion and *asserting* the relationship, not proving it.

      I am seriously questioning your ability to state any real-world observations that would refute your hypothesis.

    70. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Exactly what math are you using to determine whether or not there is a statistically significant warming trend over the past 15 years?

      Here's the famous Phil Jones from UEA:

      "BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

      Phil Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods."

      If your "simple" hypothesis is that temperature rises with CO2, you've got to explain why we can have increasing CO2, but not monotonically increasing global average temperature. As soon as you explain that, you've lost the simplicity you're trying to defend.

      Just for fun, bunratty, give us some observation that you believe would falsify your hypothesis.

    71. Re:Climate Change Deniers by the+gnat · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If you send the nation into poverty to clean the air

      I think this is the aspect of the debate that annoys me the most - the hyberbolic exaggeration of the economic effects of reduced consumption of fossil fuels. There are of course real costs involved, but nothing that scientists or mainstream policy-makers have proposed is going to cause us to sink to Third World levels of deprivation, or revert to a pre-industrial economy. Citizens of Western Europe have been living with drastically higher gasoline prices than us for decades, and they don't seem impoverished to me. Downgrading to a smaller and more fuel-efficient car is not a huge decrease in living standards relative to what the rest of the world has to endure.

    72. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Okay, so say we get little or no warming for 5 years, while CO2 increases. Are you satisfied that CO2 doesn't drive temperature?

      What about 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? What if we find an ice core record that shows 100 years of rising CO2 and falling temperatures?

      We already have falsifications to the very basic "an increase in CO2 causes warming", because we've *observed* cooling during periods of increasing CO2. So now you've got to expand on your hypothesis to account for periods of cooling during increasing CO2.

      Want to try again? Maybe offer something a little more specific?

    73. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      The point I'm trying to make, as others have: correlation != causality.

      However, we have a good understanding of the chemistry and physics. Neither the ozone hole nor global warming are explained by 'correlation' with something.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    74. Re:Climate Change Deniers by interkin3tic · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If you send the nation into poverty to clean the air, people who are starving aren't going to thank you

      It is pure idiotic FUD to suggest that false dichotomy: that the only two options are 1. unrestricted global climate change or 2. economic armageddon and killing grandparents in florida.

      Only crazy drugged-out hippies would suggest shutting down all coal plants immediately. The smart thing to do would be to set gradual caps, adjust subsidies gradually, have reasonable, balanced goals. Maybe say "no NEW coal plants." The only way that produces economic ruin is if you're a coal company and refuse to diversify.

    75. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There is no claim that "any level of carbon in the air is too high". You made that up.

      Practically no one is saying to give up transportation or electricity. You made that up, too. Some people say we should reduce wasteful transportation and electricity consumption, make its provision more efficient.

      No one is sending the nation into poverty to clean the air. You made that up, too. The opposite is true: people are trying to save the nation from the poverty that Greenhouse pollution is creating, by investing in the clearly highly profitable improvements and replacements for our Greenhouse pollution ways.

      No one's sneering at "money". You made that up, too. There wasn't even a sneer in there, except the one you made up. Reducing carbon emissions 10 years ago, more gradually and cheaper, doing less damage than we're facing now, would have embraced money. Just not the money of the polluters. Who deserve more than a sneer - they deserve jailtime and deep fines.

      Nobody attacked your money. Unless you're profiting from Greenhouse denial or Greenhouse pollution. Which, from the pile of stuff you just made up, seems entirely likely. In which case, you deserve an attack you haven't yet gotten, as well as jailtime and deep fines.

      --

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      make install -not war

    76. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      For a fairly thorough treatment on the subject of a falsifiable AGW hypothesis: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=521245

    77. Re:Climate Change Deniers by compro01 · · Score: 1

      CFCs themselves are potent greenhouse gasses, in addition to ozone depletion. The replacements (HCFCs) are actually a little better in that regard.

      Though these are already being phased out. We started on that 15 years ago in 1996, with complete elimination targeted for 2030. All this is laid out in the Montreal Protocol treaty.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    78. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 2

      China's 2011-2015 plan (its 11th 5 Year Plan) will reduce China's total energy consumption by 15%, and its total CO2(-equiv) emissions by 17%.

      By the time China deprives the US of the "but China makes our efforts moot" fallacy that (literally) smokescreens US greed and filth, it will be too late for the US to catch up to China's lead in 21st Century industrialism. Way to blow it, deniers.

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      make install -not war

    79. Re:Climate Change Deniers by wulfmans · · Score: 1

      Whats this have to do with Climate Change? The climate is always changing anyway. This about ozone and the destruction of said ozone. And the replenishment of said ozone. RTFA.

    80. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Hypothesis: The equilibrium between solar energy influx, blackbody radiation efflux and CO2 absorption/reemission gives a certain predicted average global temperature.
      Falsification: The global average temperature measured deviates from the prediction.
      Experiment: The measured temperatur conforms with the prediction.
      Conclusion: Not falsified.

      Science, do you speak it, motherfucker?

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    81. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Pretty broad statement in believing that people who watch fox have no education. I mean I see plenty of academics who believe that freedom of speech is just fine, as long as it's not yours. And plenty more who believe that inconsistency is the best policy. And yet, there's the people who watch cnn, msnbc, abc, etc, who believe that there's an evil right-wing conspiracy. And that people like Limbaugh are out to get them, and take their childrens skulls to make drinking mugs. Of course it's easier to do that, when you have various groups like media matters who selectively create controversy by breaking the context of a statement.

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      Om, nomnomnom...
    82. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      I doubt that he is profiteering himself. Those people usually do not post on slashdot. That's the sad thing. He just gobbled down the propaganda hook, line and sinker. Which reminds me that I should refrain from such discussions on slashdot and rather prepare my fishing tackle for tomorrow. Way better for my blood pressure.

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      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    83. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bonch · · Score: 1

      Why is it that you assume the fix had anything to do with signs of recovery 22 years later?

      Oh. The usual anti-corporate propaganda. Sorry. I forgot...

    84. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 2

      ICE cars get about 25% efficiency from gasoline, and getting the gasoline from crude to their tanks eats at least another 7%.

      Coal plants, while filthy, still generate electricity at over 35% (up to 45%) net efficiency that electric cars consume at over 95% net efficiency. That's at least 33% efficiency from coal/electric instead of 18% efficiency from gas/crude. ICE is therefore at most 54% (or as little as 42%) as efficient as the coal/electric transportation. When coal plants capture the "waste" heat from electricity generation, the combined cycles can be even higher in net efficiency (replacing other heat generation fuel), like in IGCC up to 60% efficiency. That puts ICE at 31% of coal's efficiency; coal can be 3.16x as efficient as ICE.

      And coal plants generate their pollution centrally, where it can be collected much more efficiently than at millions of car tailpipes.

      And coal plants can be replaced by geothermal plants, either in-place or just elsewhere on the grid. Plus moving everything to electricity makes it all more fungible, so it can be more efficiently consumed wherever it's needed at the moment, instead of the waste from stockpiling and speculation on easily disrupted supply chains.

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      make install -not war

    85. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 2

      Besides, where ARE those hippies? Haven't met many, lately. And usually all we conspire about is bogarting the spliff...

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      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    86. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      You are aware of noise in every measurement and about the fact that you need enough data points to establish significance? Especially when starting from a randomly chosen local maximum? I guess you are. You are just deliberately distorting the truth - the whole context of that Jones quote has been trotted out 1E6 times lately, but you still cite a question that has been designed to lead to a misleading answer as argument towards your position? Pitiful.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    87. Re:Climate Change Deniers by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      I should refrain from such discussions on slashdot and rather prepare my fishing tackle for tomorrow. Way better for my blood pressure.

      I always find fishing raises my blood pressure, but it's been years since I tried bait-and-tackle rather than flyfishing, or as I call it "catching trees and bushes."

    88. Re:Climate Change Deniers by vonux · · Score: 1

      Istanbul too.

    89. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 2

      Why is it that the scientists can detect an ozone hole, provide a fix, show that the fix solved the problem

      It's worth noting that the complete sequence described above hasn't actually happened. Sure, an ozone hole was detected, but we don't know that human activities have played a significant role in its existence, that is, it may something that occurs anyway without human interference and hence, we are at best very limited in our ability to fix it without some large scale geoengineering project.

      Then the final claim in the sequence that the "fix solved the problem" is based on nothing but wishful thinking. Here's an alternate scenario. Ozone holes form frequently over Antarctica. We just happened to start observing when an ozone hole had formed. Now that the phenomenon is starting to close up, temporarily, we're attributing that change to our actions which didn't have an effect.

      This sort of thing is very relevant because we might see the ozone hole reestablish itself in a few years. This incidentally is what I consider an important observation. If ozone holes periodically return, then that indicates that maybe there's something wrong with the current understanding of ozone depletion models. If it never comes back, that's a solid win for the CFCs-caused-the-ozone-hole theory.

    90. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 2

      You thoroughly refuted the hypothesis "CO2 is the only determining factor for global average temperature". Congratulations! Only, no one posits that hypothesis. Do not despair, noble Don Quixote - there are more windmills on the horizon that you can attack. Or are those even wind power plants? Charge, brave knight, CHARGE!

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    91. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Hehe, agreed - I caught me some positively capital shrubbery with the fly. But tomorrow, it's gonna be a classic bait meeting with the local carp population. Lawnchair, sixpack, stare at the bobber until you reach some zen-like state.

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      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    92. Re:Climate Change Deniers by IdolizingStewie · · Score: 1

      No one is intentionally sending the nation into poverty to clear the air. However, if you consider that the recent recession was caused and extended in large part by high oil prices and then consider that most renewable resources were still not competitive on price, it doesn't bode well. Granted, that changeover is going to happen sooner or later, so we will have to deal with it at some point regardless.

    93. Re:Climate Change Deniers by WeatherGod · · Score: 1

      Well, of course we can't just deplete the Earth of its atmosphere in order to satisfy your whims (because that would be the most direct way to support or falsify the theory), but we don't need to. There are several planetary bodies in this solar system with and without atmospheres, and those with atmospheres have different compositions. The temperatures of those planets and moons all match well to the theory put forth by Arrhenius. We have yet to observe a situation where the theory did not hold true. Until that happens, his theory is sound.

    94. Re:Climate Change Deniers by creat3d · · Score: 1

      I know, people are very gullible.

      --
      Grammar nazis are to this community what excrements are to gold.
    95. Re:Climate Change Deniers by artor3 · · Score: 1

      Three orders of magnitude more potent, in concentrations ten orders of magnitude lower.

      It's like drinking a shot of everclear versus a hundred gallons of beer.

    96. Re:Climate Change Deniers by bertok · · Score: 1

      No scientist ever said anything along those lines. Political pundits, shills, brainless TV presenters, or lobbyists maybe, but no scientist.

      The cause was CFCs, the fix was to stop using them, the fix has now been demonstrated to be effective, precisely at the predicted rate.

      The result doesn't make science look bad, it makes you look like an idiot for not even bothering to understand the most basic aspects of the second biggest global man-made environmental disaster after global warming.

      Next thing, you'll be telling us how global warming is also BS, and not to trust those crazy lab-coat wearing geeks for telling us that we all had monkeys for grandparents.

    97. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You mean the model that predicted global cooling, right?

      You see, that's the issue. The models work for a while and break. This one will too. Doesn't mean something isn't happening. Does mean that your model sucks, though.

      Otherwise, the weatherman wouldn't be usually wrong for the long range forecast.

    98. Re:Climate Change Deniers by vonux · · Score: 1

      If your "simple" hypothesis is that temperature rises with CO2, you've got to explain why we can have increasing CO2, but not monotonically increasing global average temperature.

      What worries me is that if I put a glass on my table here, with a cold drink and ice cubes in it, the temperature of the drink will not rise until the ice has melted away. Our "ice cubes" are currently melting.

    99. Re:Climate Change Deniers by WeatherGod · · Score: 1

      Why is it that the scientists can detect an ozone hole, provide a fix, show that the fix solved the problem

      It's worth noting that the complete sequence described above hasn't actually happened. Sure, an ozone hole was detected, but we don't know that human activities have played a significant role in its existence, that is, it may something that occurs anyway without human interference and hence, we are at best very limited in our ability to fix it without some large scale geoengineering project.

      True, but given that the CFCs-Deplete-Ozone-Over-Antarctic theory has a well-explained mechanism that has been thoroughly tested in the lab and match well with observations, it has become widely accepted as the explanation. Therefore, the hypothesis that the ozone hole is naturally occurring (to this extent, that is) will require an explanation of the mechanisms that could account for the observations we have. Note that there are ozone observations in the antarctic from before CFCs, so differences in ozone observations before and after CFCs were introduced would need to be addressed.

      Then the final claim in the sequence that the "fix solved the problem" is based on nothing but wishful thinking. Here's an alternate scenario. Ozone holes form frequently over Antarctica. We just happened to start observing when an ozone hole had formed. Now that the phenomenon is starting to close up, temporarily, we're attributing that change to our actions which didn't have an effect.

      You are right that it is too early to tell for certain that the ozone hole has "recovered". But, do keep in mind that this is slashdot and not your local news channel. This is a first observation, and more are needed over the next few years to even know for sure that that first observation was even right. But it still doesn't diminish the fact that this is an observation. Nothing more, nothing less. Even more obs will be needed over several years to even be sure that it is permanent, but the scientists never claimed it was permanent.

      This sort of thing is very relevant because we might see the ozone hole reestablish itself in a few years. This incidentally is what I consider an important observation. If ozone holes periodically return, then that indicates that maybe there's something wrong with the current understanding of ozone depletion models. If it never comes back, that's a solid win for the CFCs-caused-the-ozone-hole theory.

      Actually, you have it reversed. The CFCs will eventually break down. They are extremely inert at surface pressures and temperatures (which is why it was ideal for use without health effects). However, at the pressures and temperatures of the ozone layer, and with the level of ultraviolet radiation up there, CFCs do break down. Therefore, a re-established ozone layer is evidence towards CFCs causing ozone depletion, but an ozone layer that does not re-establish itself is evidence that something else caused the depletion. However, even then it would never be 100% for sure, because *maybe* it was a natural oscillation and this was just a coincidence (if it re-establishes itself), or maybe some other agent causes a continued depression of ozone (if it never comes back).

    100. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      The current recession was caused by the creation of a fake economy entirely in finance, replacing production with debt, that finally ran out of credit and crashed. Just like the Great Depression. The high oil prices were caused by speculation, which was part of that fake economy (and continues to be, as the fake economy has continued through the crash).

      There is no real economics in what you're describing (not that it's your fault). It's all fake economics. There are plenty of ways to account for alternative energy's costs that show they're already much lower than petrofuels like oil, coal and uranium. But until the economy stops being mostly fake, which was last true sometime around 1997, there's no point "proving" anything by referring to it.

      FWIW, those same bankers are indeed intentionally sending the nation into poverty. They're just not doing it to clean the air. Quite the contrary. Investing in cleaning the air also cleans out the fake economy.

      --

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      make install -not war

    101. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      What observation would falsify your hypothesis that our "ice cubes" are currently melting? You're simply asserting that as true.

    102. Re:Climate Change Deniers by sxeraverx · · Score: 1

      True. But these people forget to apply the rule to the rule itself: they see that correlation itself is correlated with lack of causation, and thus have started to believe that correlation causes a lack of causation.

    103. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm sorry, you seem to have jumped the shark here -> what hypothesis did Arrhenius put forth regarding the atmospheric composition of other planets, and their temperatures? More specifically, have we measured any extra-terrestrial atmosphere for historical atmospheric composition, and gotten some sort of comparison to the average atmospheric temperature of that extra-terrestrial body?

      Before you can falsify a theory, you need a falsifiable theory -> what temperature would Venus be if Arrhenius was wrong? What temperature would Jupiter be if Arrhenius was wrong? Simply stating "all of our observations confirm our beliefs" is not sufficient - that's "head's I win, tails you lose". Tell me what observation, on any planetary body you wish, for any atmospheric delta you wish, would contradict Arrhenius' hypothesis. Please, be specific.

    104. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Chewbacon · · Score: 1

      Heh my first thought was "So there were more CFCs being used than cars on the road?" where'd these guys goto school?

      --
      Chewbacon
      The Bible is like Wikipedia: written by a bunch of people and verifiable by questionable sources.
    105. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      So, please, tell me what falsifiable hypothesis you choose to posit.

      Or shall I attempt mind reading on Mindcontrolled? :)

    106. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm quite aware of noise in every measurement, and quite aware that Dr. Jones knew what he was saying when he talked about statistical significance.

      As a bonus, I'm also quite aware that the global average temperature statistic has absolutely zero predictive capability regarding the all important distribution of temperature and weather events.

      Now, instead of crying for pity all the time, just state, clearly and succinctly, your falsifiable hypothesis of AGW, or CAGW, or heck, even just plain GW. We can dispense with hand waving, and do real science, if we start from the basics and a solid, falsifiable hypothesis.

    107. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Ha!

      What is your predicted average global temperature for Friday, March 20, 2011?

      What is your predicted average global temperature for Saturday, March 21, 2011?

      Heck, let's start of with something even simpler - What *was* the average global temperature for Thursday, March 19, 2011?

      You give me your predictions, and then we'll talk about falsification. So far, you've made assertions that are completely baseless, and failed to but a number *anywhere* in your assertions (with the exception of understanding that there are two oxygen molecules in CO2).

      And yes, I do speak science. You just don't seem to understand it :)

    108. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Believe me, there were scientists saying all sorts of things that were not directly supported by the evidence. I am certain that the parent poster is right. For instance Dr Richard Lindzen was very vocal that CFC's were NOT linked to ozone depletion. He was also vocal that cigarettes do not cause cancer and is now vocal that greenhouse gasses do not cause global warming. For every opinion there is a credentialed advocate.

    109. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Now that's in insightful comment.

    110. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You are most certainly wrong. Dr Richard Lindzen was a vocal critic of the CFC/ozone link. He was also a vocal critic of the cigarette/cancer link. He is also now a critic of the GHG/warming link. For every crazy opinion there is a credentialed advocate. As it turns out he is most likely Dr Richard Lindzen.

    111. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, the size of the ozone hole around Antarctica changes size with the seasons. Your point is?

    112. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      We can (and do) measure incoming long wave radiation and we can (and do) measure outgoing long wave radiation. The difference is the measurable effect of GHG in the atmosphere. The disparity is increasing over time.

    113. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      We can also look at deserts. H2O is a potent GHG that is largely absent in deserts. For this reason they tend to be very cold at night - even those deserts that are very warm during the day.

    114. Re:Climate Change Deniers by digitalchinky · · Score: 1

      Although a very descriptive word that can be used quite aptly in all manner of conversation, I don't tend to see or hear 'motherfucker' terribly regularly from the scientific community myself. If I might suggest you focus a tad more on the science, perhaps even including some actual science, people might take you more seriously.

    115. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I have read the quote a number of times and even used it to respond to people who claim Phil Jones says it's not warming. Did you even read it. He's saying that 15 years is too short a time to make a definitive statement about that. Climatologists often work with 30 year periods, long enough for the natural variability cycles to zero out.

      The 95% confidence level is a rather arbitrary number. I think it's probably a good number but there's nothing that makes it the absolute gold standard. It simply means there is a 5% or less chance that the phenomenon being observed is not significant. And I read somewhere that the significance level that Phil Jones did calculate for that period was 93%. That's not significantly below 95% in my book.

      And if you use the GISS temperature record rather than the CRU record the warming in that period is significant statistically speaking.

      And in another post you asked how is current climate theory falsifiable. I would say at least 20 years of cooling despite rising CO2 levels who be pretty good falsification with the caveat that there isn't a major volcanic eruption or some significant drop in solar output in that time period.

    116. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Ozone goes through natural cycles. These happen regardless of whether we are using CFC's. It is merely luck that the depletion occurred after CFC use and the replenishment occurred after we ceased using. Scientists who advocated CFC control where alarmists out to get research funding. As one industry magazine noted at the time: "The whole area of research grants and the competition among scientists to get them must be considered a factor in the politics of ozone."

      You can read about the whole debacle here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=341&tstamp=200604

    117. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      What month are you living in???

    118. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Personally I believe it is impossible for the average person to be sure that one side of the argument or another is telling the truth - Corporations and companies repeatedly dump all sorts of things wherever they see fit, charge us large amounts for gas, etc. Global warming scientists make their theories invalid by presupposing that mankind has an effect on global warming, and then refuse to answer the hard questions when put under scrutiny. All the while we have politicians propping up new products that are "environmentally safe" such as new light bulbs and replacements for CFC gases. (BTW which is right - should we be worried about an invisible hole in the ozone layer, or global warming - as far as I know a fully functioning ozone layer will insulate the planet and make it warmer). And then we have colossal failures like Al Gore telling us all to conserve electricity, be green, etc. or New York will be under 20 feet of water in less than 10 years (Why isn't it under 3 feet or so now?) and while he does this he is using more electricity in ONE of his homes per month than most people use within a whole year.

      My best guess is everyone is lying - or nobody knows a damn thing they are talking about and are pretending they do so they won't look stupid.

    119. Re:Climate Change Deniers by WeatherGod · · Score: 1

      Ok, I think I see the confusion here. The theory that I am talking about was the general greenhouse effect theory that Arrhenius constructed and used to explain the atmosphere's impact on a planet's surface temperature. From that, he drew the logical conclusion that if his theory was correct, then increasing CO2 would increase surface temperatures.

      A theory for each planet and moon is not necessary, as Arrhenius's theory has the conditions of a planetary body as parameters to the theory. As for planets like Mars and Venus, we do have surface temperature measures, albeit not long-term measurements. However, because Arrhenius's greenhouse effect theory was not addressing how the surface temperature will change over time (it was a 1-dimensional, steady-state model), short-term observations would be all that was needed to support or disprove his theory. The moons and Mercury do not need in-situ temperature measurements because their surface temperatures can be measured from their brightness temperatures (they do not have much of an atmosphere). Bodies with and without atmospheres provides the means to test for the greenhouse effect.

      keep in mind that his theory was only meant to explain the first-order effects of the atmosphere to the surface temperature. In other words, in the presence of an atmosphere, the average surface temperature is significantly warmer than what the steady-state, thermodynamic equilibrium would allow without an atmsphere. Furthermore, his theory stated that different gases at different concentrations had more or less warming of the surface. Arrhenius's statement of "if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of temperature will increase in nearly in arithmetic progression" is merely a corollary to the mathematical formulation he used for his theory. One way to disprove the statement is to disprove the greenhouse effect (by any gas, not just CO2). Another way to disprove it is to find that the temperature augmentation does not follow this formula in lab experiments.

    120. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also as someone has already noted - CFCs only became a problem when their patents ran out - same thing with lightbulbs - coincidence? I have also read that certain car manufacturers are putting electric engines in cars to boost performance making them "incidentally green" coincidence? I doubt.

      Need further proof that our government lies? Go check out Obama's shiny new fake birth certificate, remember the 1000 person "swine flu epidemic" where Obama declared a NATIONAL emergency (for those of you who don't know the US has well over 200 million people in it) and then go look at Glaxosmithkline's record quarter - all from selling swine flu vaccines. Or better yet - check out how the government in the US never has any solution for global warming except new taxes on everyone (or the gas companies - who so helpfully allow us to pay the taxes for them in the form of higher gas prices). I had hoped that here at slashdot there would be a few people who didn't just believe the self proclaimed "experts" on global warming, etc. (Side note - people have been studying global warming because our government is giving money to people who do such things). It really is preposterous - if you want even more proof the whole scientific "green" community is completely bonkers, check out how the government scientists keep raising the "safe" level of radiation, right after the power plant incident in Japan.

      Oh, final note Osama Bin Laden is dead YAY!? - Oh yeah thats right, we threw him in the ocean, even though he didn't resist, or he did, and used a woman as a shield, or wait - what was the official story again? Why haven't we put him on trial for planning 911? Oh that's right, they can't prove he did it - and also a well known former US intelligence person says he was dead 9 years ago.

      Point is this - everyone says that we have to believe them because they are "EXPERTS" but most of the time when they say that they mean "believe me because I'm lying"

    121. Re:Climate Change Deniers by williamhb · · Score: 3, Interesting

      If you send the nation into poverty to clean the air

      I think this is the aspect of the debate that annoys me the most - the hyberbolic exaggeration of the economic effects of reduced consumption of fossil fuels. There are of course real costs involved, but nothing that scientists or mainstream policy-makers have proposed is going to cause us to sink to Third World levels of deprivation, or revert to a pre-industrial economy. Citizens of Western Europe have been living with drastically higher gasoline prices than us for decades, and they don't seem impoverished to me. Downgrading to a smaller and more fuel-efficient car is not a huge decrease in living standards relative to what the rest of the world has to endure.

      But you're responding with the equally hyperbolic fallacy of assuming that the sum total of fossil fuel consumption and carbon output is people driving cars, and that just getting SUVs off the road would fix everything. The guilty secret of why western Europe's carbon output has dropped so much is because a lot of the dirty stuff like mining and manufacturing has been outsourced, and many of the economies have refocused on finance. Now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that not every country can do that: you cannot have a world that is solely populated by bankers. China's, India's, even Australia's carbon outputs meanwhile have shot up as their share of the manufacturing and mining (particularly mining in Australia's case) load has increased. Only this time we also have the additional carbon output of shipping stuff all the way around the world as nothing is made locally any more.

    122. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also, you have to generate energy for all cars, which probably means more thermoelectric, nuclear or hydro plants

      No, it doesn't. It means a dramatic increase in the number of coal-fired plants. Currently, energy for transportation is stored and transported chemically in the form of gasoline. This is far, far more efficient than transporting energy over electrical transmission lines. Something like 70% of produced electricity is lost during transmission. Magically switching from gasoline powered cars to electric cars would dramatically increase the overall amount of energy used for transportation and that's not even counting the energy used to manufacture replacements for all the existing car. Then there is the cost of the extra police who must be hired to run around putting a gun to people's heads to force them to buy electric cars that they don't want to buy.

      Seems like a lot of trouble to go through to deal with a non-existent problem. Geez, the sheer volume of shit that schools are dumping into the minds of gullible students is breathtaking. It's going to take a while to deprogram all these fools.

    123. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 3, Insightful

      when there is a physical mechanism connecting two phenomena AND a correlation between them

      Here's a simple game to try. Claim that someone has figured a relationship between two unrelated phenomena and ask an audience to guess what the connection is. Your audience will come up with numerous "physical mechanisms" for explaining the correlation they think might exist. Sure, having a physical mechanism (that is, a model for interaction in other words) and a correlation is better than a raw correlation, but it's a far cry from actual causation.

    124. Re:Climate Change Deniers by PyroMosh · · Score: 1

      Not Constantinople!

    125. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hypothesis: The equilibrium between solar energy influx, blackbody radiation efflux and CO2 absorption/reemission gives a certain predicted average global temperature.

      It's delightful that you use such a mindnumbingly simplistic model. No accounting for water vapor, no possibility of changes in the internal energy of the matter in the Earth, blithely ignoring the non-equilibrium nature of the Earth as a thermodynamic system. Ah, it brings back memories of my youth when the only problems I ever had to deal with were the dumbed-down examples used in courses. Real world problems are so much more complicated.

    126. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For every dollar spent convincing people that climate change is real there is probably a hundred dollars spent trying to convince people that climate change is a myth.

      Oh, really? Al Gore is a billionaire. He made his money pedalling AGW. How did he do that if the pro-AGW folks are so impoverished? How much money (mostly US tax dollars) has gotten spent by the UN promoting AGW? How many tax dollars have been spent in all the countries with taxpayer supported scientists in Universities and Government agencies promoting AGW? The government-funded scientists are welfare queens. They use facilities paid for by taxpayers. How much money is spent on those facilities? There is a hell of a lot of money being spent to promote AGW and there is a feedback loop: government-supported scientists claim the sky is falling and are rewarded with more tax dollars to study the fact that the sky is falling which they then use to fabricate "proof" that the sky is falling which earns them more tax dollars, etc.

      At the end of the day, the pro-AGW folks end up denouncing capitalism and "evil, greedy corporations" and advocate more government. More government means more power for the pro-AGW people. It's all a game of self-interest and statist politicians are in on the game.

    127. Re:Climate Change Deniers by jon3k · · Score: 1

      So if 15 years is too short, then by your own admission we don't really know if the earth is warming? Sure you could say "but it could be!" and I would agree with you. The question is, what do we do to fix it and what does it cost us in the short and long term, to hedge against, what you openly admit, is an uncertain bet?

    128. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      From that, he drew the logical conclusion that if his theory was correct, then increasing CO2 would increase surface temperatures.

      That's an assertion, not a fact. Since obviously there are more players in the general greenhouse theory than simply CO2 (cloud albedo, for example), you can only really say "increasing CO2 would increase surface temperature, *all other things being kept exactly the same*". Since we know the climate system, both terrestrial and solar does not stay the same, this is hardly a useful general theory.

      Arrhenius's statement of "if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of temperature will increase in nearly in arithmetic progression" is merely a corollary to the mathematical formulation he used for his theory.

      Again, I think you're glossing over the "all other things being kept exactly the same". Now, what particular component of influences CO2 may have may certainly be open to discussion, but the blunt assertion that CO2, in any quantity, will overwhelm all other drivers is obviously inane.

    129. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Ha! Nice catch! :% s/March/May/g

      The question still holds -> I defy anyone to assert what the average global temperature was for a given day with any meaningful accuracy, and I defy anyone to make any prediction of what the average global temperature will be for any given day, simply given the CO2 content of the atmosphere on that day. We may disagree on the specifics, but let's not be so naive as to call this whole climate thing "simple".

    130. Re:Climate Change Deniers by jbengt · · Score: 1

      Many CFC replacements are 1000s of times more potent than CO2 in Global Warming Potential. But they generally have a lower Global Warming Potential than the CFCs and HCFCs that they are replacing.

    131. Re:Climate Change Deniers by jbengt · · Score: 1

      Actually, HCFCs are being phased out, too. (e.g. R-22, which is no longer being shipped in new equipment in the US)

    132. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      He's saying that 15 years is too short a time to make a definitive statement about that. Climatologists often work with 30 year periods, long enough for the natural variability cycles to zero out.

      That's a pretty bold assumption (that natural variability cycles zero out in 30 years). I'd point to recurring ice ages on the order of magnitude of tens of thousands of years as a trivial refutation of that idea.

      And I read somewhere that the significance level that Phil Jones did calculate for that period was 93%. That's not significantly below 95% in my book.

      Well, neither is 92%. Or 91%. Or heck, even 51% is better than even odds, right? This is the problem with non-falsifiable hypotheses and "science by statistics" - we're talking about percentages based on hundreds upon hundreds of assumptions laid upon each other. All due credit to Mr. Fermi, I've got no reason to believe that science by statistics is going to nail down actual causality.

      I would say at least 20 years of cooling despite rising CO2 levels who be pretty good falsification with the caveat that there isn't a major volcanic eruption or some significant drop in solar output in that time period.

      I'll see you in five years, my friend :)

      That all being said, I might argue, playing devil's advocate to myself, that even if we don't have a major volcanic eruption, or a significant drop in solar output, I could blame a lack of warming on any number of ad hoc pleadings -> the heat went missing somewhere in the ocean, or cloud formation was particularly odd during that time period, or even just a larger growth of plant life and the biosphere...while we may see 20 years as pretty good evidence we're barking up the wrong tree, that might not dissuade true believers.

      In the end, maybe you're right - it's just a matter of waiting it out. When doomsday doesn't come on May 21st (or rapture, or whatever they call it), then we'll wait until October. When the world is still around in October, then we'll know it's bunk. When CO2 levels keep rising for the next hundred years, and humanity survives without Florida going under water, or the Antarctic turning into a desert, we'll know CAGW is bunk. Now in the meantime, every war, disease, earthquake, flood, volcano, tsunami, hurricane, tornado, drought, high temperature, low temperature, and other natural disaster will be attributed to CAGW, but I suppose that's just the nature of the beast :)

    133. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      When we measure incoming long wave radiation over 1 sq. mi of land, and the outgoing long wave radiation over that same 1 sq. mi of land, do we know what the surface temperature is?

      And there you have it folks - one of the real questions -> given an atmosphere of fairly large depth, what do we consider the "average global temperature"? It certainly is possible for the average global *surface* temperature to stay the same, while the upper atmosphere warms up...and I'd argue that it's also possible for the average global *surface* temperature to go up, while the corresponding average global *atmospheric* temperature goes down. Some of these distributions of heat could cause bad things to happen, and some of these distributions of heat could cause good things to happen - nobody I know of has made any sort of reliable predictions on the distributions based simply on the CO2 content in the atmosphere.

      So, while the spectroscopic properties of CO2 are measurable in the lab, and we can measure incoming and outgoing long wave radiation, none of that tells you what the temperature is in downtown Moscow this morning.

    134. Re:Climate Change Deniers by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      I always find fishing raises my blood pressure

      Fishing is much more relaxing when you stop worrying about the fish.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    135. Re:Climate Change Deniers by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      I'd be surprised if what was spent on climate denial propoganda was as high as $50M/yr, where as just one research sattelite can be up to $1B. Ingnoring the morals of spreading FUD, the anti-AGW propogandists are good at what they do, they get spectacular results from what little they spend.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    136. Re:Climate Change Deniers by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      Global warming is caused by the emission of gases, mostly CO2, but also CFC replacements that are 1000s of times more potent than CO2.

      We burn ~7,000,000,000 tonnes of coal every year, CFC replacements are irrelevant by comparison.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    137. Re:Climate Change Deniers by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Oddly enough climate change is something that comes out of the physics models when you put in what we understand of the climate. It has nothing to do with correlation, it's pure mechanical causation. As it happens, the observations do confirm the model.

      Our understanding of the physics of the earth's climate isn't anywhere near precise enough to have more confidence in the model than in the actual observations. Think about it......if we understand it, shouldn't we be able to figure out exactly how much the atmosphere is contributing to the earth's temperature? In fact we can't get any more accurate than 10 degrees. We really don't know how much effect the earth's atmosphere is having (check out black body radiation and the earth for more information).

      And it also happens, that the exact same people who were arguing against CFC -> Ozone hole causation and smoking -> lung cancer causation started arguing against climate change.

      I don't care if Mother Theresa is arguing against it. All I care is the facts, those are more important than the arguments of the greatest genius or the worst nave.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    138. Re:Climate Change Deniers by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Oh. The CFL manufacturers had less money than the oil people. Sorry. I forgot...

      My understanding was that DuPont was putting up a good fight, but then stopped as soon as they found a replacement chemical that worked nearly as well.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    139. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      That's a pretty bold assumption (that natural variability cycles zero out in 30 years). I'd point to recurring ice ages on the order of magnitude of tens of thousands of years as a trivial refutation of that idea.

      Natural variability in this context refers to things like the 11 year solar cycle (actually 22 year), the El Nino/La Nina Cycles, and things like the PDO and AMO. The glaciation/deglaciation cycles of the ice age are natural variability due mostly to Milankovitch cycles which operate on scales of thousands of years and can be ignored for the purposes of this discussion.

      Well, neither is 92%. Or 91%. Or heck, even 51% is better than even odds, right? This is the problem with non-falsifiable hypotheses and "science by statistics" - we're talking about percentages based on hundreds upon hundreds of assumptions laid upon each other. All due credit to Mr. Fermi, I've got no reason to believe that science by statistics is going to nail down actual causality.

      Pray tell, what are some of these hundreds upon hundreds of assumptions? As far as defining exactly what the current climate is, it is the statistical accumulation of daily weather observations. You can't get away from statistics in climate science.

      I'll see you in five years, my friend :)

      Huh?! There has not been cooling for the last 15 years, just warming that is slightly short of the statistical significance test. How will you feel in 5 years when a new record for the warmest year is set (probably in 2012)?

      Let me say again, there has been no lack of warming, especially when you take into account the total energy in the whole system. That includes the atmosphere, the oceans, the land surface and the cryosphere (ice). Humanity will survive but I'll bet that half of Florida will be underwater by 2200. Unfortunately neither of us will live to see that. None of the things in your list are directly caused by global warming (except maybe high temperatures) but there is a piece of global warming in them that modifies their effects (although it's tenuous at best for earthquakes, tsunami's and volcanoes).

      What will you be saying in 2020 if this decade turns out to be another "hottest decade in the temperature record"?

    140. Re:Climate Change Deniers by darkshadow88 · · Score: 1

      A research satellite is, obviously, for research. It doesn't have an agenda. That $1B isn't being spent for a particular side, but rather for the truth. The truth is inherently more expensive than baseless conjecture because it actually requires gathering evidence. If more people actually had at least half a brain, all we would need would be the facts. Unfortunately, a legitimate area of science has degenerated into a propaganda war between the two sides, despite the vast majority of the scientific evidence favoring the reality of global warming.

    141. Re:Climate Change Deniers by darkshadow88 · · Score: 1

      Good scientists are very careful to do their significance tests. He said the trend is very close to the 95% significance level (understandable, since there are only 14 years of data for this test). So, essentially, what he's saying is this: "We're 94% sure global warming is happening." (maybe not 94%, but he said "quite close", so over 90% at least). It may not be quite the 95% significance level, but it's likely enough that we should be taking steps to correct the problem.

      The discussion should not still be about whether global warming is happening, but rather about finding good solutions to deal with the problem.

    142. Re:Climate Change Deniers by darkshadow88 · · Score: 1

      Also, the fact that global warming was not demonstrated to a statistical significance of p 0.05 does NOT prove the hypothesis that there is no global warming. It is far more likely than not that global warming is happening, which can be easily seen if you actually understand what is being said and don't get fooled by the BBC's carefully worded question.

    143. Re:Climate Change Deniers by darkshadow88 · · Score: 1

      That should say p < 0.05.

    144. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The ozone depletion had a large part to do with the nuclear bombs explodeing in the atmosphere. Read government documents and read what the nuclear scientists were saying back in the 50's-60's. They talked about problems with detenating nuke bombs in the atmosphere besides the fallout was the holes it would create in the ozone and would take decades to self repair if it would even do so. If I remember Ill source some documents for people. The CFC's were just a scapegoat that allowed the chemical companies to repatent the same things. Look at now the patent ended on froen a few years ago and now we have to switch over to a greener etc chemical for heat and cool. Promise it will happen again and not a min to short of every last penny out of this patenet. The companies tell government what to do. Notice how things become a crisis at just the right moment for a company to swoop in with a solution that took years in the making. Its called Problem, Reaction, Solution. They create the problem, people react to whats going on, then they offer a solution to your new founded problem.

    145. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The warming trend has continued uninterrupted since the 1970's so over 30 years of warming. That's long enough for a significant trend.
       

    146. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Lindzen may have credentials but his track record doesn't inspire much confidence in his opinion.

    147. Re:Climate Change Deniers by WeatherGod · · Score: 1

      Actually, it wouldn't be that hard. Depending on what your tolerance is, it is pretty much the same as any other day. Also, keep in mind that most of the time, climate scientists are speaking of average temperature deviation. Areas of cold are typically balanced out by areas of warm.

    148. Re:Climate Change Deniers by koxkoxkox · · Score: 1

      Two things :
      * First it is the 12th 5 years plan.
      * More importantly, the proposed reduction of CO2 emission is *per unit of GDP*, so the absolute value should continue to rise, as the GDP growth should be more than enough to offset the higher relative efficiency.

    149. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Asking questions like that just shows how poorly you understand the issue in the first place. Climate scientists would never even try to make that kind of prediction. That's more in the realm of weather prediction. What a climate scientist will say is "If things continue as they have been going with no significant changes to solar output or major volcanic eruptions or other unexpected influence then in 2050 the average temperature taken as a 30 year mean will be 1 degree warmer than it is today because of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily CO2". If you ask questions like yours to climate scientists they'll just laugh at you.

    150. Re:Climate Change Deniers by the+gnat · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But you're responding with the equally hyperbolic fallacy of assuming that the sum total of fossil fuel consumption and carbon output is people driving cars, and that just getting SUVs off the road would fix everything.

      I was cherry-picking an example; it wasn't intended to suggest a simple remedy. There are many more equally egregious wastes of energy in first-world countries; massive floodlights illuminating empty athletic fields at night are my favorite. Some of the culprits are seemingly trivial: I live in a relatively temperate climate (Northern California) where it almost never freezes, and a properly insulated residence needs minimal heating during winter. But I've ended up in several apartments or houses that were so poorly insulated that I had to choose between doubling my gas bill, or eating breakfast at 10 C. Gas is cheap, of course; insulating or rebuilding costs much more. But it isn't going to send us back to the Bronze Age; I just might have to wait another year to buy the Macbook Air. Heavily air-conditioned big-box stores are another example of extravagant waste and luxury - not that I have any moral objection to big-box stores or vapid consumerism (I also partake from time to time), but from the perspective of energy efficiency, we might as well just set gasoline on fire for fun. (Actually, we already do that: it's called NASCAR.)

      More generally, we could make much better use of renewable and/or carbon-neutral energy sources (and I do include nuclear* in this category). Yes, most of these are more expensive, but none so much that we're going to suddenly find ourselves burning garbage to stay warm. The targets proposed for carbon emissions are exceedingly modest, and more than affordable for a country with huge amounts of surplus wealth. (And I don't mean that in a tax-the-rich way: even as a grad student living on a research stipend in one of the most expensive areas in the nation, I was still able to afford a car, Internet service, plane flights home on Christmas, occasional gadgets, etc., without going into debt.) I like money too, the more of it the better, but frankly, I can afford to pay more for energy if necessary, and most of the rest of the country can as well. Unless you have an absurd sense of entitlement, this is not an apocalyptic scenario.

      I don't know what to suggest for the rapidly industrializing nations; it's much easier for us to adapt. However, it seems like the argument that "China won't cut back, so why should we?" is gaining increasing popularity. I don't think we should be using the Chinese government as a moral example for anything, let alone energy policy.

      (* including fusion, if it ever works. It's appalling that we're spending a total of more than $300 billion on the F-35 when the industrial superpowers combined can barely get their act together to build ITER for less than €20 billion.)

    151. Re:Climate Change Deniers by the+gnat · · Score: 2

      The government-funded scientists are welfare queens. They use facilities paid for by taxpayers. How much money is spent on those facilities?

      The budget of the entire US Department of Energy is approximately $25 billion, and it's by far the largest chunk spent on publicly-funded energy research. $10 billion of this is actually "nuclear security", i.e. keeping our nukes functional, which has nothing to do with global warming. The most expensive energy-research project currently in progress is the fusion reactor ITER in southern France, which is estimated to cost 16 billion Euros, split between the EU and most of the other industrial superpowers, and will take 10 years to build. The most expensive US-only project that I'm aware of is the National Ignition Facility at LLNL, which I think was around $3.5 billion, and was partly driven by its potential applicability to nuclear weapons research (as well as fusion energy).

      Oil and gas companies have some of the largest revenues in the world, including 13 of the top 50 companies (I got bored after counting that far), with a combined revenue of $2.7 trillion, which is more than the GDPs of all but a handful of nations. (They're all multinational and mostly headquartered in other countries, of course - the US-based companies account for $770 billion.) So the amount of money invested in government-funded research is orders of magnitude less than the fossil-fuels companies.

    152. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry. Dr Drew Schindell of NASA Goddard has done just that.
      "simultaneously convince the world's government that they must act."
      Nope. The only, ONLY country NOT to sign the Montreal Proticals is THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

      btw, just so you know? If a ozone hole opened in the Arctic, the same size as the one that opened over the Antarctic, it would expose 2.6 billion people to harmful ( as in 0.17 chance of carcinoma ) UV-a/b radiation. Do the math. Climate change will not kill millions. UV-a/b from an ozone hole will.
      btw, Hmm... the arctic ozone hole opened this year.....

      The recovery has been predicted every other year since 1985. The publication of the climatic model from Dr Drew Schindell, predicted that it will take 150 years, instead of 75 years. This was published on the very same day as the O.J. Simpson verdict. The ozone article didn't even make the front page.

      "But the government restrictions and bans didn't come about until medical researchers began"
      Medical researchers confirmed in 2000 that the rate of carcinoma from UV-a/b radiation killed 177 people in a city of 100,000. Published in a refereed journal, and presented at the American Conference for pathological skin diseases. Nothing happened, except:

      Barbara Bush had a tumor removed from her leg.

    153. Re:Climate Change Deniers by captain_sweatpants · · Score: 1

      That's a great point about offshoring carbon outputs. The Carbon trading model doesn't really seem to take account of this and actually encourages the low cost/high carbon production methods. The steel buyer isn't obligated to pay for the credits, only the steel maker. The buyer just buys the cheapest steel, which is from the country with the weakest carbon pricing model. So steel production flourishes in countries that don't worry about carbon outputs while it flounders in the more progressive nation. A GST-style system where credits are paid by the end user would work but that would require too much international cooperation to be feasable I suppose.

    154. Re:Climate Change Deniers by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      You're right that we would need to upgrade the grid before we plugged in EVERY car, but you're also wrong in that we could plug in every car that could CURRENTLY be replaced by an EV, taking into account the mileage and usage patterns, and charge them at night on the excess base load.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    155. Re:Climate Change Deniers by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      However, we have a good understanding of the chemistry and physics. Neither the ozone hole nor global warming are explained by 'correlation' with something.

      In a pig's eye. We knew beyond the shadow of a doubt that CFCs were getting up into the atmosphere and attacking ozone because we could fly up there and find them, and because we have a basic understanding of physics.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    156. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      You are fabulously good at trolling. One of the finest non-sequiturs in recent history. What in blazes does the temperature in downtown Moscow this morning have to do at all with the global radiation equilibrium? You keep bringing up local effects - temperatures in certain places at certain times, which are not a part of the equation at all. It's like denying that you have a fever because we just measured your body core temperature, but can't predict what the exact temperature of your left nut will be tomorrow afternoon.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    157. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      I stopped respecting denialists that trot out "criticisms" that have been debunked for more than a century a long time ago. Besides, it's a paraphrase of a rather commonly known quote. But go on in your righteous indignation, thereby ignoring the actual science that has been presented a million times. Truth is, you are not remotely interested in it, because it might interfere with your opinion.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    158. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      It's been stated multiple times now, by me and other posters. I am not going to repeat myself for the 3rd time. Why am I suspecting that I am in the troll feeding business here?

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    159. Re:Climate Change Deniers by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      China's 2011-2015 plan (its 11th 5 Year Plan) will reduce China's total energy consumption by 15%, and its total CO2(-equiv) emissions by 17%.

      Your crystal ball seems unusually clear today.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    160. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fishing is much less relaxing when you forget to bring the beer.

    161. Re:Climate Change Deniers by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      R-12 was banned in the 90's, R-22 is also now banned.

      Freon's production is banned in the USA but they make it in Mexico and import it in quantity which is NOT prohibited. You can buy it all over the country. Nice try though.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    162. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Let's be clear, bunratty stated "The falsifiable hypothesis is that an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes warming."

      I think you'll agree this is not a statement of a falsifiable hypothesis. I critiqued it as meaning "CO2 is the only determining factor for global average temperature" because that's pretty much what it states. Feel free to decide how you'd like to interpret that, but if you're going to do science, you start of with a falsifiable hypothesis. That means specifying exact measures and numbers in regards to observations that will refute your hypothesis.

      I haven't seen any of the three times you claim for yourself, but I'll look at your other comments and check again.

    163. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      What in blazes does the temperature in downtown Moscow this morning have to do at all with the global radiation equilibrium?

      The temperature in downtown Moscow actually affects real people. The global radiation equilibrium, as stated on that level as an "average temperature" doesn't.

      It's like denying that you have a fever because we just measured your body core temperature, but can't predict what the exact temperature of your left nut will be tomorrow afternoon.

      Wrong. It's like asserting you have a fever because you just measured the average temperature of your house, and it was 102.5F, with 350F of that in the oven, 98.6F in your body, and otherwise it a cool 72F everywhere else. It is the distribution of temperatures that is important (say, if your body and the oven switched temperatures, we'd have a problem). The average temperature of your house, on the other hand, is meaningless.

      The temperature of your left nut, and any other portion of your body isn't going to vary all that much from your body core temperature - but for the sake of argument, imagine sticking your left hand in liquid nitrogen while you have a 102F fever - are you now okay since your average body temperature is brought to 98.6?

      Global average temperature is a useless metric that tells us nothing about how life is going to be experienced by anyone on this planet.

    164. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Well, MC made the statement, "Accounting for absorption and reemission by atmospheric CO2 you arrive at the actual average temperature."

      Obviously he was talking out of his hat, but his bald statement essentially asserts that CO2 is a thermometer. When pressed to actually put together a falsifiable hypothesis, he managed to do so without naming a single prediction, or a single refutation that would falsify his hypothesis. Saying that his prediction was a "certain global average temperature", without actually saying *what* that "certain" was, he patted himself thoroughly on the back, and smugly moved on without actually completing the exercise.

      Now, had he attempted any reasonable sort of falsifiable hypothesis, maybe I wouldn't have asked him such blunt questions. You've done a much better job of making a statement with enough caveats to be honest (although it unfortunately avoids falsifiability with the loophole of "other unexpected influence").

      I would add an additional challenge, which I think is glossed over but implied -> "if the 2050 average temperature taken as a 30 year mean is 1 degree warmer than it is today, humanity will suffer more than if it was not". We may end up agreeing on your neutral statement of years and magnitudes, but severely disagree on the implied statement.

    165. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Law of Unintended Consequences FTW!

    166. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Depending on what your tolerance is, it is pretty much the same as any other day.

      The problem is you don't even have "any other day" - we do not have a scale which works like the kilogram (i.e., the global average temperature on 1/1/1980 will be set to 0C, and everything will be stated as relative to that zero point). Our historical measurements have been with all sorts of different stations, with different qualities, and in different places (not to mention UHI). Depending on what particular surface station record you take, you can get wildly different answers. Add more than the surface and include the whole atmosphere, and you don't even have enough monitoring to get close to a reasonable calculation.

      So before you can say it's "pretty much the same as any other day", you need to actually come up with the derivation for "the other day". There is no global temperature thermometer you can stick out your window to get the latest global average temperature, and certainly, simply given the CO2 in the atmosphere on a given day, you'll never be able to predict what that global average temperature is -> there are simply too many interacting variables. Calling it simple is naive.

    167. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The discussion should not still be about whether global warming is happening, but rather about finding good solutions to deal with the problem.

      We would have to first agree that global warming is a problem. There is an equally plausible theory that will assert that global warming is advantageous to the biosphere.

    168. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Here's the problem - it's not just about whether there is global warming. Plenty of people accept that it warms sometimes and cools sometimes naturally, and simply assume that periods of warming are of natural origin. Other people may accept that it warms in response to human produced CO2 (or even just primarily CO2 in general), but assume that periods of warming are beneficial to life. Simply saying that there is statistically significant warming or not, in relation to CO2 levels, is not nearly sufficient to deal with the subject.

    169. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it never comes back, that's a solid win for the CFCs-caused-the-ozone-hole theory.

      If it never comes back? Can you measure that? Or can you only measure what has been, and what currently is?

    170. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The glaciation/deglaciation cycles of the ice age are natural variability due mostly to Milankovitch cycles which operate on scales of thousands of years and can be ignored for the purposes of this discussion.

      I'm not sure if that's necessarily true - if you take a look at the cycles of ice age, they have some pretty steep curves in them that could certainly skew measurements, even if you're only taking a look at 30 years. Furthermore, I'll bet you anything that you can find 30 year periods, before the dawn of mankind going up, going down, and staying the same - simply assuming that in 30 years you get to "cancel out" natural variability just isn't supportable. Now, 30 years may be a useful benchmark in some cases, but it's certainly not any sort of guarantee that you're not seeing a statistical artifact.

      Pray tell, what are some of these hundreds upon hundreds of assumptions?

      How about the assumption that you can extrapolate the temperature for 1200sq mi on a single measuring station. Or the assumption that CO2 amplifies its effect through water vapor. Or the assumption that UHI is negligible.

      As far as defining exactly what the current climate is, it is the statistical accumulation of daily weather observations. You can't get away from statistics in climate science.

      This is certainly true, and probably why you'll never be able to determine causality here, *certainly* not based on a single driver (our giant flaming ball of gas we call Sol excepted, of course).

      Huh?! There has not been cooling for the last 15 years, just warming that is slightly short of the statistical significance test. How will you feel in 5 years when a new record for the warmest year is set (probably in 2012)?

      Ah, I misunderstood you -> you won't be satisfied with a lull, but only with declining temperatures. Fair enough. That being said, the whole "warmest year" thing is really a red herring -> you've been arguing about using 30 years to cancel out natural variability, and what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Either a single year can be seen as significant, or you require 30 years to smooth things out. You don't get to play both sides of that :)

      Let me say again, there has been no lack of warming, especially when you take into account the total energy in the whole system. That includes the atmosphere, the oceans, the land surface and the cryosphere (ice).

      You're kidding me, right? Here's oceans for you:

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/10/bottom-falling-out-of-global-ocean-surface-temperatures/

      Humanity will survive but I'll bet that half of Florida will be underwater by 2200.

      I highly doubt it, but as you point out, neither of us will be there to see it.

      None of the things in your list are directly caused by global warming (except maybe high temperatures) but there is a piece of global warming in them that modifies their effects (although it's tenuous at best for earthquakes, tsunami's and volcanoes).

      Increases and decreases in average global temperature have exactly zero predictable effect on weather patterns. "Average global temperature" is an artifact that cannot be said, with any sort of certainty, to have any sort of specific modification on any sort of weather.

      We hear that global warming will cause droughts and floods, but we can't predict where or when. What is certain is that in the past there have also been droughts and floods (as severe or more severe than any ever experienced by mankind) during periods that the global average temperature was cooler, and when the global average temperature was warmer.

      Any assertion of a relationship betwe

    171. Re:Climate Change Deniers by BergZ · · Score: 1

      Al Gore? Oooooooh, I smell a deflection. You want to make this about individuals instead of about money spent.
      I'll play your game: The Koch brothers, James Inhofe, Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, Cato institute, and every fossil fuel company on the planet (the gnat made some excellent points about how much weight they can throw around).

      Unfortunately it seems that you've constructed a circular argument to support your position: You seem to think the evidence is wrong because it doesn't support your pre-defined conclusion. Basically, you've let politics define what is good science vs bad science.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    172. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 1

      If it never comes back? Can you measure that? Or can you only measure what has been, and what currently is?

      Time moves on. What will be eventually becomes what has been and hence, is measurable.

    173. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The temperature in downtown Moscow actually affects real people. The global radiation equilibrium, as stated on that level as an "average temperature" doesn't.

      You have a very good point. We do a good job at this point of predicting global average temperature, but how it will affect this town or that town is still very murky. For instance, over the last few years the Hudson Bay has not frozen over during the winter. Over the same few years the UK has experienced very cold winters. It is hypothesized that the two events may be linked. That is, the wall of ocean heat over the Hudson, which would typically be covered by a sheet of ice, is throwing off the arctic oscillation. The cold air that would typically swoop down over the Hudson is instead swooping down over the UK. This was not predicted.

      One thing is certain. If we change the average temperature of the Earth then we should expect more dramatic changes in various pockets of the world. This will happen in chaotic and to some extent unpredictable ways. This kind of change is not going to be a good thing. People who have adapted to one climate will need to adapt to another. This will be expensive.

    174. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In other news, Republicans will introduce a bill in the House tomorrow requiring the teaching of "intelligent ozone design" in science classrooms. In an ironic twist, the bill will require teaching that the ozone hole was 6000 years old instead of less than 60.

    175. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      There is certainly more than one parameter to this equation. CO2 is one of them. Whoever told you that scientists were not aware of the other parameters was misleading you. You would do well to disregarded them going forward.

    176. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is someone going to mod this down?? What a piece of ignorance.

    177. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 1

      You got something to contribute? Comparing climatology skepticism to Young Earth theory is merely insulting. There is no valid comparison between the two.

    178. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 1

      True, but given that the CFCs-Deplete-Ozone-Over-Antarctic theory has a well-explained mechanism that has been thoroughly tested in the lab and match well with observations, it has become widely accepted as the explanation. Therefore, the hypothesis that the ozone hole is naturally occurring (to this extent, that is) will require an explanation of the mechanisms that could account for the observations we have. Note that there are ozone observations in the antarctic from before CFCs, so differences in ozone observations before and after CFCs were introduced would need to be addressed.

      Unfortunately, so does the theory of observer bias. As to a natural ozone hole, we already have the ingredients, climate patterns that isolate the upper atmosphere above Antarctica for months at a time and stratospheric ice clouds. We just need to be a bit wrong about our models.

      Now, I'm being a bit flippant, but I see the resurrection of the CFC-ozone story as another attempt to validate the AGW theory and subsequent corrective actions on some basis other than science.

    179. Re:Climate Change Deniers by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Basically, because the solution being proposed is a REAL BAD ONE. Simple as that. It will not fix global warming, since it is GLOBAL CAUSED. Instead, it will point to a minority of nations and tell them to stop their emissions, while ignoring some of the biggest and newest ones coming.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    180. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      Their 5 year plans have a very good track record. Their efficiency and emissions upgrade programmes have a very good track record, especially lately.

      Taking comfort in the uncertainty of China's plans is no substitute for the comfort that would come from a US industrial policy, or anything else that improved the US chances to match the next 5 years of China's energy efficiency drive.

      Chinese companies in my own industry that measures and reduces energy consumption are fully already engaged in projects across China under this 2015 target. China's living in reality, not excuses to wallow in filth and past glory.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    181. Re:Climate Change Deniers by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      That is why science (or at least the serious variety of it) looks for causation before going out and measuring a correlation.

      Try that simple game that way. Ask the crowd what variables should be related, and then measure the correlation. If you get some hard enough variables (for the crowd not having a valid model of them), you'll hardly get something different from random noise. If you get something different from random noise, well, I'd recommend that you listen to the crowd theories, because some may be right.

    182. Re:Climate Change Deniers by smellotron · · Score: 1

      (say, if your body and the oven switched temperatures, we'd have a problem)

      s/problem/tasty snack/

    183. Re:Climate Change Deniers by JoshHeitzman · · Score: 1

      Research scientists are not monks who have taken a vow of poverty in their devotion to "truth". Research satellites do have an obvious agenda: maintaining funding for their research. Funding is easier to get for research on a topic that people are concerned about than one folks aren't concerned with, so its in the researches interest to ensure concern continues so easy funding continues. As they say, follow the money. There are companies and individuals out there who are economically benefiting from folks who get a warm fuzzy from buying "green" and from CO2 output shifting schemes.

      --
      Software Inventor
    184. Re:Climate Change Deniers by JoshHeitzman · · Score: 1

      Sure I wouldn't mind the State of Nevada building some nuclear plants here in using the profits as part of the state budget. Now if your talking about private plants, suck it up and build them in your own backyard in California.

      --
      Software Inventor
    185. Re:Climate Change Deniers by JoshHeitzman · · Score: 1

      You left out two inefficiencies in coal electric generation in your calculations: electric transmission loses and extracting and transporting the coal. Also your assertion that electric cars are 95% efficient appears suspect. A quick search found references to more like 80%. Electric cars still convert a fair amount of the power to heat from conduction resistance and mechanical friction.

      --
      Software Inventor
    186. Re:Climate Change Deniers by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Chinese companies in my own industry that measures and reduces energy consumption are fully already engaged in projects across China under this 2015 target. China's living in reality, not excuses to wallow in filth and past glory.

      You're pretty hilarious, because China is putting up coal plants as fast as they can. If that's not filth I don't know what is.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    187. Re:Climate Change Deniers by compro01 · · Score: 1

      That's what I was referring to in my 2nd sentence.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    188. Re:Climate Change Deniers by jon3k · · Score: 1

      But don't we have evidence of warming and cooling periods that have lasted hundreds (thousands?) of years? You can point at the industrial revolution but correlation != causation, and all that.

    189. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      One thing is certain. If we change the average temperature of the Earth then we should expect more dramatic changes in various pockets of the world

      I emphatically disagree. You could change the average temperature of earth by having warmer lows, and actually have *less* atmospheric differential overall, resulting in a much more mild set of weathers (and in fact, this is actually observed, with milder weather events during higher average global temps, and extreme weather events precipitated by greater regional differentials). We simply cannot assume certainty here, even if we have a plausible rationale. To be certain, we would need to have a rigorous falsifiable hypothesis to work with, and ruthlessly try to falsify it.

      People who have adapted to one climate will need to adapt to another.

      This has been true throughout human history, and will be true forever more. Natural climate change is a fact of life, and the assumption that *any* efforts on our part could actually *stop* climate from changing is hubris in the extreme.

      What I do know is this - the reduction of poverty will greatly increase the ability of humanity to adapt, and the easiest way to do that is to get the cheapest energy possible to them.

    190. Re:Climate Change Deniers by WeatherGod · · Score: 1

      From that, he drew the logical conclusion that if his theory was correct, then increasing CO2 would increase surface temperatures.

      That's an assertion, not a fact.

      I never claimed it was a fact. Actually, I only claimed it was a corollary that was entirely dependent upon the general radiative transfer theory being correct

      Since obviously there are more players in the general greenhouse theory than simply CO2 (cloud albedo, for example), you can only really say "increasing CO2 would increase surface temperature, *all other things being kept exactly the same*". Since we know the climate system, both terrestrial and solar does not stay the same, this is hardly a useful general theory.

      Of course there are more players, but that's why Arrhenius's theory calls CO2's impact as an "augmentation of temperature". He didn''t say that the theory absolutely predicts with absolute certainty that the global temperature will rise. He said that CO2 will have a warming forcing upon the surface temperature of the Earth. Indeed, if all else is kept equal, then that will mean an overall warming, but this was climate science at its infancy, and they couldn't have possibly imagine all of the interesting dynamic feedback mechanisms that we have since learned.

      Arrhenius's statement of "if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of temperature will increase in nearly in arithmetic progression" is merely a corollary to the mathematical formulation he used for his theory.

      Again, I think you're glossing over the "all other things being kept exactly the same".

      And you would be wrong. You simply fail to understand the context that the theory is used in modern day climate science. It by itself does not explain everything, and no climate scientist ever would claim that it does.

      Now, what particular component of influences CO2 may have may certainly be open to discussion, but the blunt assertion that CO2, in any quantity, will overwhelm all other drivers is obviously inane.

      I am sorry, but those last two sentences do not make any sense. At first, you seem to concede that CO2 might have some influence, and that the amount of influence is up for debate (a debate you are about 100 years late for), and then you proceed to then claim that CO2 could never play a dominate role in the temperature regulation of a planet (which is patently false due to the plain evidence of Venus).

    191. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 1

      I don't have a problem with listening to the "crowd". But there's a long road from that to solid recommendations for changes in my society's behavior. The elephant in the climatology room is anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and the aggressive recommendations made by some parts of society to reduce humanity's carbon dioxide emissions by considerable amounts (I've heard up to 80% by 2050).

      If one looks at how CFCs were restricted by the Montreal Protocol, a striking feature is obvious. There was no defenders of CFCs. The chemical companies that made CFCs were all for its banning because they could make CFC replacements for a considerably higher margin and volume. Similarly, environmentalist groups were all for banning another threat to the environment. It didn't matter how solid the science was backing the treaty, the results were preordained by the backers of the treaty.

      This isn't true for any similar action on AGW. There are many parties that suffer under carbon emission restrictions, including the general public. The price tag for complying with mitigation efforts is far greater. And the best that carbon reduction advocates can offer is vague promises that future generations will be better off. AGW is never going to be as easy a road as CFC-elimination was. Frankly, I doubt China or India will comply with a AGW-mitigation treaty this century, Their development takes precedence over those nebulous future generations.

    192. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Those "steep curves" still cover 10,000 years or more, not the few hundred of our current situation. Using a 30 year period tends to cancel out the natural variability of known short term cyclical phenomena which gives a clearer picture of the long term trend. You can't ignore the longer term natural variability cycles of course but by definition they don't change that fast.

      One thing I'd like to say about global average temperature. The number you see are not the TRUE average global temperature. It would require the instantaneous integration of all temperatures throughout the atmosphere, the oceans and the land. An obviously impossible task. But if the temperatures you see published are derived in a consistent way then it does give a reasonable indication of how temperature is changing over time. That's what's important about the numbers, not the absolute value.

      Assumptions? Bzzzt! Try again.

      You don't think scientists have examined the validity of using discrete measuring stations? There are peer reviewed papers on the subject.

      CO2 amplifying the global warming effect of water vapor is no assumption. The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is strictly controlled by the air temperature (and the availability of water to evaporate into the atmosphere). If CO2 causes any warming then it will increase the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold. Any increased water vapor in the atmosphere will increase the amount of greenhouse warming from it, a feedback effect. An in fact it's true that the 1 degree Fahrenheit warming of the past century has increased the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere by about 4%. That's a factor in some of the extreme precipitation events we've been seeing lately.

      UHI - no assumption here either. The UHI effect is certainly not negligible in the locale it is occurring but scientists have examined the effect globally and it's effect on the temperature record and again, in peer reviewed papers have addressed the subject. The UHI effect has a negligible effect on global temperature.

      Nothing is based on a single driver but it's not wrong to point out the major factors. Of course the Sun is the primary driver of climate but in the short term CO2 is the second most important factor in determining global temperature. You can't explain the temperature during any epoch of the Earth's existence without accounting for CO2.

      Sea surface temperatures are but a small part of the oceans which have an average depth of nearly 10,000 feet. That's a lot of area for heat to get lost in. Did you know that the top 10 feet of the oceans hold as much heat as all of the atmosphere?

      The last ice age (glaciation) ended about 10,000 years ago (and started ending about 25,000 years ago). If you look at temperatures since then there was what they call the holocene optimum about 8,000 years ago and temperatures have been declining slowly since then. If climate scientists are right (and I see no reason to doubt them) we will have increasing temperatures for the foreseeable future.

    193. Re:Climate Change Deniers by RoFLKOPTr · · Score: 1

      See, I did say that the fossil fuel industry invests a lot in propaganda. You're buying it.

      The Stop Global Warming industry seems to as well, and you're buying their's.

    194. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Those "steep curves" still cover 10,000 years or more, not the few hundred of our current situation.

      I strongly disagree. Those steep curves show changes as great or greater than we have seen today within the past 200 years. While the *cycle* may be 10,000 years, if you look at it, there are some very large changes within very short time periods, *especially* on the upside:

      http://home.austarnet.com.au/~yours/Vostok%20Ice%20Core%20Global%20CO2.gif
      http://home.austarnet.com.au/~yours/Vostok%20Ice%20Core%20Global%20Tempertatures.gif

      When you look 100,000 year sawtooth, that rising edge is still incredibly steep.

      Using a 30 year period tends to cancel out the natural variability of known short term cyclical phenomena which gives a clearer picture of the long term trend.

      The problem is that you have short, medium, and long term cyclical phenomena. Any time period you choose, be it 5, 8, 13, or 50,0000 years, is going to have natural cycles and variability.

      You can't ignore the longer term natural variability cycles of course but by definition they don't change that fast.

      But again, we've got cycles on every scale you can imagine, not just "less than 30 years" and "more than 1000 years". There's a wealth of natural variability in between those two lengths that you simply cannot assume will not skew any given 30 year period.

      But if the temperatures you see published are derived in a consistent way then it does give a reasonable indication of how temperature is changing over time.

      No, actually, it doesn't. Even if the temperatures are derived in a consistent way, if you don't have the impossible instantaneous integration of temperatures everywhere on the globe, and only have a localized subset of measuring stations, you have no idea as to whether or not your distribution of those measuring stations is giving you a false flag. Perhaps all of your measuring stations are biased towards being on land (a mere quarter of the earth's surface) - assuming that a consistent change in land based temperatures means that global temperatures must be also consistently changing when you add the SSTs is an assumption, not a given.

      There are peer reviewed papers on the subject.

      There are also peer reviewed paper criticizing the temperature records processed by folk like NOAA and GISS, and UEA. The appeal to authority argument doesn't convince.

      CO2 amplifying the global warming effect of water vapor is no assumption.

      Yes, it is an assumption. Water vapor can both warm and cool the planet, depending on its form. Simply assuming that all water vapor is a positive feedback is not only observationally wrong, but theoretically wrong.

      The UHI effect has a negligible effect on global temperature.

      But it has a dramatic effect on the land based temperature measurements which we assert reflect some sort of "average global temperature." I agree, we could pave the entire earth, and have a negligible effect on average global temperature, because let's face it, the atmosphere is huge, and in terms of specific heat, the oceans are orders of magnitude huger (ever wonder how something with a lower specific heat like the atmosphere can theoretically warm something with a specific heat orders of magnitude larger?).

      You can't explain the temperature during any epoch of the Earth's existence without accounting for CO2.

      Sure we could. We could simply say that the temperature was driven by solar output, or particular water vapor configuration (either cooling or warming), and that CO2

    195. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I never claimed it was a fact. Actually, I only claimed it was a corollary that was entirely dependent upon the general radiative transfer theory being correct

      Your problem here is that while it is entirely dependent upon the general radiative transfer theory being correct, it is not definitively true simply because the general radiative transfer theory is correct. While general radiative transfer theory may be *necessary*, it is not *sufficient*.

      He said that CO2 will have a warming forcing upon the surface temperature of the Earth. Indeed, if all else is kept equal, then that will mean an overall warming, but this was climate science at its infancy, and they couldn't have possibly imagine all of the interesting dynamic feedback mechanisms that we have since learned.

      What you stated was "The temperatures of those planets and moons all match well to the theory put forth by Arrhenius. We have yet to observe a situation where the theory did not hold true."

      How can you possibly assert that the average global temperature of Mars matches Arrhenius' theory, if his theory didn't account for any of the dynamic feedback mechanisms that any given planetary or sub-planetary body may have?

      At first, you seem to concede that CO2 might have some influence, and that the amount of influence is up for debate (a debate you are about 100 years late for), and then you proceed to then claim that CO2 could never play a dominate role in the temperature regulation of a planet (which is patently false due to the plain evidence of Venus).

      Venusian temperatures are driven by pressure, not on the basis of some CO2 concentration.

      I will certainly concede that CO2 has some influence over temperature, but I will assert that it is not simply a universally positive feedback, nor one of significant magnitude to derive a signal out of natural variability. Even the flapping of a butterfly's wings in China have *some* influence over average global temperature, but it is fanciful to assume that they could be dominant over all other influences.

      I'll leave you with this -> the top 10ft. of ocean water holds more energy than our entire atmosphere. If we magically *doubled* the temperature *everywhere* in the atmosphere, and then magically transferred all that energy into the ocean, by how many degrees would average ocean temperature rise?

    196. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The ozone layer problem was solved by substituting the CFC gases for other less harmful gases

      CFC products were manufactured and distributed up through at least 2008. I know because I have asthma, and my rescue inhalors used to rely on a CFC propellant which was cheap, reliable, and consistent. But banning CFC's in luxury products like hair spray and silly string wasn't enough for the Green-Jobs, so they took my $3 inhalor away and replaced it with a new "HFC" propellant. Which costs me $30 co-pay (I think like $60 or $100 if you pay full price) and does not work as well or as reliably.

      And now we see that extending the ban to medical products and other very limited-use applications was not even necessary. Thanks, assholes.

      Given enough money, you can fool a lot of people for some time.

      Ain't that the God-Damned Truth. And if it's enough time for you to make more money back than you paid, we call this a "Win-Win".

    197. Re:Climate Change Deniers by khallow · · Score: 1

      There are of course real costs involved, but nothing that scientists or mainstream policy-makers have proposed is going to cause us to sink to Third World levels of deprivation

      These policies aren't enacted in a vacuum. The same political players that propose vast reduction in CO2 policy, such as Obama and his goal of 80% reduction by 2050, are implementing other destructive policies. Obama's administration has presided over three years of vast increases in US debt (both public and total) and implemented a large number of destructive (fiscal and economic) policies.

      It's also worth noting that nobody is seriously trying to reduce their CO2 emissions at the moment. Europe is in no more danger of meeting its long term Kyoto Treaty obligations than the US is. And the Kyoto Treaty obligations are only a small portion of the cuts that are deemed needed by AGW supporters.

      Second, what about the opportunity costs? We ignore that Europe and to a lesser extent the US could be much better off without the pathology surrounding AGW, such as high gas taxes and some of the other punitive taxes.

      We need to keep in mind that these policies are being implemented by the economic front runners. You won't see them decline overnight. Europe is still running on the economic benefit from opening trade over the continent while the US feeds off a business culture and vast market that is still among the best in the world. Both have great legal and cultural infrastructure for generating wealth. My view however is that if either implements aggressive CO2 reduction policies and stays the course, they won't be among the great economic powers in a few decades.

    198. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 1

      You're pretty much in denial of the fact that China is simultaneously retiring its dirtiest coal plants, for an actual net reduction in emissions.

      Which is what counts. But you go on clutching at context-free facts to make you feel superior. It's the American Way.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    199. Re:Climate Change Deniers by sjames · · Score: 1

      It's related. The CFC ban was part of the ideal product lifecycle:

      1. Invent product
      2. Patent product
      3. Sell until patent is running out
      4. Invent and patent replacement product that's almost as good as the original
      5. Get congress to ban the now generic original product so you can sell the expensive patented one even though it's not as good
    200. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I took a look at your graphs. They conveniently have the years for the minimum and maximum points flagged. They show about 10 degrees C rise in about 10,000 years which is about 1 C per thousand years. Right now the slope is more like 1 C in less than 200 years. That is considerably steeper.

      All I can say about natural cycles is that they account for all known ones. There may be ones we don't know about yet but you can't just assume that they exist.

      ... and only have a localized subset of measuring stations, you have no idea as to whether or not your distribution of those measuring stations is giving you a false flag. Perhaps all of your measuring stations are biased towards being on land ... when you add the SSTs is an assumption, not a given.

      Do you really think scientists have ignored the issues you raise over station placement either through incompetence (not likely) or for political reasons (laughable IMO)? That would be one of the first things I looked at if I wanted to derive a global average temperature. Sea surface temperatures are not part of the atmospheric temperature record.

      Yes, it is an assumption. Water vapor can both warm and cool the planet,...

      No, water vapor is the gaseous form of water. I think you're conflating it with clouds. They have quite different properties. Water vapor only acts as a greenhouse gas retaining more heat. Clouds can cause cooling by reflecting sunlight back out of the atmosphere but they also capture heat energy coming off the Earth's surface. The net effect of clouds on the greenhouse effect is thought to be slightly positive although it's still an area of some uncertainty.

      The UHI does not have as dramatic effect on temperature measurements as you think. A comparison of the stations that surfacestations.org considered poorly placed (mostly because of UHI issues) vs. ones they considered well placed actually found a slight cooling bias for the poorly placed stations. (I'll dig up the paper if you want.)

      (ever wonder how something with a lower specific heat like the atmosphere can theoretically warm something with a specific heat orders of magnitude larger?).

      No.

      A difference in specific heat only affects the rate at which heat transfer can happen. This is the answer to your "... trace gas, in parts per million, ..." comment and the following paragraph as well.. If there is a temperature difference there will always be heat transfer from the warmer to the colder (the second law of thermodynamics). It may not be very fast but it happens.

      Sure we could. We could simply say that the temperature was driven by solar output, or particular water vapor configuration (either cooling or warming), and that CO2 was a lagging indicator, driven *by* temperature, but not *causing* it.

      Atmospheric temperature is the synthesis of all of the factors that affect it. That includes solar energy input, the absorption and re-radiation of that energy by the surface (albedo), the forcing and/or feedback of the various greenhouse gases and clouds, aerosols (which can also affect albedo when they fall out of the atmosphere), the topology of the surface and probably a number of other things. The only case where CO2 does not affect the atmospheric temperature is if there's zero part per million of it in the atmosphere. It may be a feedback from warming temperatures or it may be a forcing when volcanoes or burning fossil fuels add it to the atmosphere but the level of CO2 in that atmosphere is always a factor in global temperatures. Water vapor is also a factor but it can never drive global temperatures. The amount of it in the atmosphere is strictly limited by temperature. If the atmosphere is saturated with water vapor it quickly precipitates out so the level is limited.

      Actuarialy speaking I'm old enough it's 50-50 whether I'll be alive in 20 years. I don't expect to see any significant cooling trend for the rest of my life and I doubt you will either even if you survive to 2100.

    201. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      It is pure idiotic FUD to suggest that false dichotomy: that the only two options are 1. unrestricted global climate change or 2. economic armageddon and killing grandparents in florida.

      Except that the extreme case is exactly what the AGW supporters are always pitching. They don't offer suggestions like "switch lightbulbs from incandescent to CFL". They instead bitch about how the US hasn't adopted Kyoto, which believe it or not is NOT a "gradual" concept and is in many aspects very close to the economic armageddon you make light of.

      AGW "deniers" as they're refererd to around here exist in _exactly_ that "gray zone" between the two extremes. They recognize that steps are already being taken towards helping the environment. Things like the Clean Air Act, the Montreal Protocol, the hybrid cars initiative, the banning of incandescent light bulbs, etc, etc -- they are all _gradual steps_ towards "fixing" the problem. Yet AGW supporters insist that either no steps are being taken or that those steps are not enough -- then, when asked the quantify what "appropriate steps" are, they launch into the hyperbolic spiels you claim only drugged up hippies offer (~50% reduction in 5 years, end all coal power, sign Kyoto, etc, etc). Then when you try to call them on their unreasonableness, they make a post exactly like yours saying "oh, we only wanted reasonable stuff like hybrid cars and efficient light bulbs", all the while entirely ignoring that these things are already happening

    202. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I emphatically disagree. You could change the average temperature of earth by having warmer lows, and actually have *less* atmospheric differential overall, resulting in a much more mild set of weathers (and in fact, this is actually observed, with milder weather events during higher average global temps, and extreme weather events precipitated by greater regional differentials).

      Good point. A faster trend for minimum temperatures is a fingerprint of warming caused by CO2, and it is what is being observed. I am not certain that we are seeing milder weather events because of this. This last year was the hottest on record and also saw an unprecedented number and severity of extreme weather events. For a more empirical look, see the graph in the following article: http://www.grid.unep.ch/product/publication/download/article_climate_change_hazards.pdf

      "Much of the increase in the number of hazardous events reported is probably due to significant improvements in information access and also to population growth, but the number of floods and cyclones being reported is still rising compared to earthquakes."

      Temperature has been pretty stable during the interglacial of the last 10,000 years. Civilization arose during this period of relative stability. We are likely leaving that era of stability.

    203. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Good point. A faster trend for minimum temperatures is a fingerprint of warming caused by CO2, and it is what is being observed. I am not certain that we are seeing milder weather events because of this.

      What you have here is a situation where it is likely that only *one* of your observations is true. Either the relative difference between daily temperatures is shrinking, and despite sensational news items on individual disasters weather is actually becoming milder overall, OR, the relative difference between daily temperatures is an artifact of bias in our measuring methodology and network, and we're really getting more extreme weather events.

      Temperature has been pretty warm during the interglacial of the last 10,000 years. Civilization arose during this period of relative warmth. We are likely leaving that era of warmth.

      There, FTFY - we're likely about to hit another glacial period soon, with what I predict will be dropping temperatures, more extreme weather events, and unfortunately, negative consequences for humanity. If, in fact, CO2 emissions could actually delay or avoid another glacial period, we should actually be encouraging *more* of them.

    204. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      What you have here is a situation where it is likely that only *one* of your observations is true. Either the relative difference between daily temperatures is shrinking, and despite sensational news items on individual disasters weather is actually becoming milder overall, OR, the relative difference between daily temperatures is an artifact of bias in our measuring methodology and network, and we're really getting more extreme weather events.

      Why? Because it doesn't fit with your preconception otherwise? They are not my observations. This is what is being measured. Both are going up.

      We are likely leaving that era of warmth.

      There, FTFY - we're likely about to hit another glacial period soon,

      Well, we should be (if by soon you mean another few thousand years) except that is not what is happening. Contrarians have been predicting for decades that the temperatures are about to fall. So far they haven't been right. This decade will be the hottest on record (just like the one before that and the one before that and the one before that), the record for hottest year will be broken within the next three years.

    205. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Why? Because it doesn't fit with your preconception otherwise? They are not my observations. This is what is being measured. Both are going up.

      The problem is that the hypothesis of CO2 driven global warming asserts that temperature differentials will shrink, and the hypothesis of shrinking temperature differentials asserts that weather events will become more mild. You get to have one, or the other, not both. If you *do* have both, something is either wrong with your observation *or* something is wrong with the hypothesis.

      Contrarians have been predicting for decades that the temperatures are about to fall. So far they haven't been right.

      Sure they have, it all depends on what endpoints you pick. Over the past 100 years, we've had decades of warming, and decades of cooling, all during rises of CO2.

      Not to mention, contrarians don't have to predict falling temperatures, all they need to do is predict *not* rising temperatures (which we've seen for the past 15 years).

      This decade will be the hottest on record (just like the one before that and the one before that and the one before that), the record for hottest year will be broken within the next three years.

      So this brings to mind two questions - 1) why isn't it possible that the "hottest decade on record" isn't due to natural variability, and 2) if the record for the hottest year isn't broken within the next three years, will you assume your hypothesis has been falsified, or is this a rhetorical prediction?

    206. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The problem is that the hypothesis of CO2 driven global warming asserts that temperature differentials will shrink, and the hypothesis of shrinking temperature differentials asserts that weather events will become more mild. You get to have one, or the other, not both. If you *do* have both, something is either wrong with your observation *or* something is wrong with the hypothesis.

      Ah, I see what you are saying. You should also consider the impact of greater water vapour in the atmosphere and greater heat content in the ocean.

      Over the past 100 years, we've had decades of warming, and decades of cooling, all during rises of CO2.

      Not to mention, contrarians don't have to predict falling temperatures, all they need to do is predict *not* rising temperatures (which we've seen for the past 15 years).

      There are certainly factors other than CO2 that need to be considered. Volcanoes will cause a dip in temperatures, El Nino a spike, La Nina a dip, increased solar activity a spike, decreased a dip, etc. The trend is being driven by CO2 and that trend is accelerating. It is hard to reconcile the idea that temperatures haven't been rising over the last 15 years and the fact that last year was hottest on record and last decade was hottest on record. Here is a graph of the temperature over the last 100 years with a 10 year running mean: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1911/to:2011/mean:120

      So this brings to mind two questions - 1) why isn't it possible that the "hottest decade on record" isn't due to natural variability, and 2) if the record for the hottest year isn't broken within the next three years, will you assume your hypothesis has been falsified, or is this a rhetorical prediction?

      1) What is meant by natural variability? Solar output is down. We are not in a period of the Milenkovic cycle that should cause (additional) warming. We know the forcing for CO2 and we know that there are more greenhouse gasses now than last decade. What natural variability are you referring to?

      2) If the record isn't broken within the next three years then I would want to understand why not.

    207. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Ah, I see what you are saying. You should also consider the impact of greater water vapour in the atmosphere and greater heat content in the ocean.

      Except it's not water vapor that causes extreme weather events, it's large temperature differentials (those "LOW" and "HIGH" pressure areas during the weather report).

      As for "greater heat content in the ocean", I think you vastly underestimate just how much heat capacity the oceans have versus the atmosphere. The *entire* energy contained in the *entire* atmosphere matches about 10ft of depth of the ocean. You could *double* the temperature of the atmosphere, transfer that into the ocean, and it would only heat up another 20ft of water.

      Conversely, if the ocean transferred a mere *fraction* of its energy into the atmosphere, we could raise the temperature of the atmosphere significantly above anything imaginable.

      Volcanoes will cause a dip in temperatures, El Nino a spike, La Nina a dip, increased solar activity a spike, decreased a dip, etc. The trend is being driven by CO2 and that trend is accelerating.

      The trend clearly hasn't accelerated over the past 15 years of increased CO2, and any trend you could possibly discern from CO2 is overwhelmed by all the other natural variables (not to mention, CO2 has an upper limit of effect, and has a log function of effect, diminishing as it gets higher).

      It is hard to reconcile the idea that temperatures haven't been rising over the last 15 years and the fact that last year was hottest on record and last decade was hottest on record.

      The problem is that the "hottest year on record" metric is an artifact with no meaning. It's a single point that you'll see over and over again during any period of natural temperature increase. By the same token, "hottest decade on record" also has no meaning - you'll see that over and over again during any period of natural temperature increase (and you'll note we've been exiting a particularly cold period in history).

      That being said, here's how I reconcile it -> Hansen, et. al., regularly massage the data points to make these ludicrous claims, and if there was any sort of quality control, it would be obvious that temperatures have not been rising over the past 15 years. The *reason* they do this is because if they don't, the strongly held beliefs they have are refuted.

      1) What is meant by natural variability?

      Natural changes in the climate and weather due to known and unknown external and internal factors that change in both chaotic and cyclical ways. For example, every wild temperature change, extreme weather event, record high, record low, that every existed for the past 4.5 billion years.

      2) If the record isn't broken within the next three years then I would want to understand why not.

      Would you even consider that the answer to "why not" is that your original hypothesis is incorrect, and that in fact, natural variability can cause dramatic changes, in either direction, without fully understood causes because of the massive complexity and interconnectedness of weather and climate phenomena?

    208. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I took a look at your graphs. They conveniently have the years for the minimum and maximum points flagged. They show about 10 degrees C rise in about 10,000 years which is about 1 C per thousand years. Right now the slope is more like 1 C in less than 200 years. That is considerably steeper.

      You're making the assumption that the 10 degrees of rise was regular and even. As for 1C in less than 200 years, we've seen this during the MWP, when human CO2 emissions were negligible.

      Here, check this out:
      http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/moberg-last-1000-550x388.png
      http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2011/04/2000-years-of-rate-of-temperature-change/

      "Several items stick out to me.

      Ten times in the past 1,000 years the rate of warming has been significant for at least a 50 year period.

      The most extended period of warming was during the 1700s when warming happened for almost the entire 100 year period.

      Since 1600, the rate of cooling has never been below -0.005 C/yr. In effect, the strong cooling took place prior to 1600 AD.

      The strongest cooling was in 1440 when the 50 yr rate was -0.0141 C/yr.

      So in the past 400 years the rates of cooling been lower than average, but such periods have happened before. The net result is that the modern warm temperatures have been 400 years in the making, not 40 years. Absolutely nothing in the past 100 years is abnormal in the rate of temperature change."

      All I can say about natural cycles is that they account for all known ones. There may be ones we don't know about yet but you can't just assume that they exist.

      That's ludicrous. We can, with great certainty, assert that there are natural cycles we don't know about yet. In fact, we could probably go so far as to say with great certainty that there are *significant* natural cycles we don't know about yet. Simply attributing every observation to our prime suspect, anthropogenic CO2, rather than the null hypothesis of "we don't know what drove that", is unsupportable.

      Sea surface temperatures are not part of the atmospheric temperature record.

      Which is particularly problematic, given that most of the earth is not land. Constructing, or reconstructing, a temperature record that does not include 2/3rds of the earth's surface seems, on its face, insufficient.

      No, water vapor is the gaseous form of water. I think you're conflating it with clouds.... The net effect of clouds on the greenhouse effect is thought to be slightly positive although it's still an area of some uncertainty.

      My apologies, you're correct, it is water vapor available for cloud formation that I was referring to. That all being said, the effect of clouds, and the distribution (both contemporary and historical) of clouds is *completely* uncertain.

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/06/aerosols-and-cloud-lifetime-effect-cited-as-enormous-uncertainty-in-global-radiation-balance/

      "To date, however, it has not been possible to quantify the influence of the cloud lifetime effect on climate. The estimates vary hugely and range from no influence whatsoever to a cooling effect that is sufficient to more than compensate for the heating effect of carbon dioxide."

      A comparison of the stations that surfacestations.org considered poorly placed (mostly because of UHI issues) vs. ones they considered well placed actually found a slight cooling bias for the poorly placed stations. (I'll dig up the paper if you want.)

      I'd love to see t

    209. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The link to the paper comparing surfacestations.org well/poorly placed stations is here.

      The extended warming in the 1700's coincides with the Sun coming out of the Maunder minimum as do other temperature changes coincide with levels of solar activity. That is not the case now, temperatures have been increasing despite solar activity not increasing.

      So your null hypothesis is to assume that it's all magical, that we don't know enough to attribute the temperature change to anything? Scientists would beg to differ. The radiative properties of CO2 are well known. Certainly they get modified when they are mixed with other gases in a dynamic atmosphere but they don't go away. Scientists didn't decide that CO2 was the cause of global warming and then look for evidence to support that supposition. Instead they asked what are the factors that go into explaining the temperature on the surface of the Earth. They have found that after changes in insolation CO2 is the biggest factor. If you want to dispute that you have to come up with a better scientific argument than they have.

      Clouds effects on global warming has been pretty intensely studied for the past decade. Dessler (2010) used cloud measurements over the whole planet from the CERES satellite from March 2000 to February 2010. He concludes that although a small negative feedback is possible cloud feedbacks are most likely positive. He also says a negative feedback from clouds strong enough to overcome the positive feedbacks is not supported by his observations. I wouldn't call that *completely* uncertain despite what Anthony Watts says.

      If the ocean is absorbing heat from the atmosphere it's going to get warmer. The ocean is not an infinite heat sink. Warmer oceans mean warmer atmospheric temperatures. Because of the buffer effect of the oceans atmospheric temperatures lag what they would be relative to the radiative balance of the planet by 30-40 years but the atmosphere will catch up eventually.

      You really ought to drop the undersea volcanoes argument. It is a hypothesis with no evidence to back it up. It makes it sound like your grasping at straws to support your position.

      CO2 in the atmosphere is NOT limited by temperature. Ocean temperature does affect the absorption/out-gassing of CO2 but there is a balance between the ocean and atmosphere based on the partial pressure. No matter how high high the level of absorbed CO2 in the ocean if the partial pressure in the atmosphere is high enough the ocean will absorb more of it or if the partial pressure is low enough the ocean will out-gas it. There is no possibility of supersaturation of CO2 in the atmosphere under current conditions on the Earth. The atmosphere could be 100% CO2 and it still wouldn't precipitate out. The maximum percentage of H20 in the atmosphere is around 4% at the surface before it starts to precipitate out but as you go higher in the atmosphere that number gets smaller because of the colder temperatures. Above the troposphere there is more CO2 than water vapor in the atmosphere.

      I guess you're calling my invoking of the second law of thermodynamics a toy model. Yes, it doesn't explain all of the complexities. It's just the place to start from and you can't override it.

      What solar predictions? I'm not aware of any theory that predicts what the Sun is going to do other than to keep doing what is has been. If you can believe in solar predictions you ought to be able to believe what climate scientists say as well.

      If I live another 40 years I'll be on the verge of being one of those celebrated centenarians. Wish me luck.

    210. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Interesting paper, looks like it was a bit premature though:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/27/rumours-of-my-death-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/

      "Menne et al 2010 mentioned a “counterintuitive” cooling trend in some portions of the data. Interestingly enough, former California State Climatologist James Goodridge did an independent analysis ( I wasn’t involved in data crunchng, it was a sole effort on his part) of COOP stations in California that had gone through modernization, switching from Stevenson Screens with mercury LIG thermometers to MMTS electronic thermometers. He sifted through about 500 COOPs in California and chose stations that had at least 60 years of uninterrupted data, because as we know, a station move can cause all sorts of issues. He used the “raw” data from these stations as opposed to adjusted data.

      He writes:

      Hi Anthony,
      I found 58 temperature station in California with data for 1949 to 2008 and where the thermometers had been changed to MMTS and the earlier parts were liquid in glass. The average for the earlier part was 59.17F and the MMTS fraction averaged 60.07F.

      Jim

      A 0.9F (0.5C) warmer offset due to modernization is significant, yet NCDC insists that the MMTS units are tested at about 0.05C cooler. I believe they add this adjustment into the final data. Our experience shows the exact opposite should be done and with a greater magnitude."

      So your null hypothesis is to assume that it's all magical, that we don't know enough to attribute the temperature change to anything?

      Nothing needs to be magical for us not to know enough about what causes a given behavior in a chaotic system. Admitting that we don't know the reasons for something is humility; asserting that anything we can't explain must be caused by a magical gas called CO2 is hubris.

      Scientists didn't decide that CO2 was the cause of global warming and then look for evidence to support that supposition.

      Actually, that's *exactly* what most climate scientists (and anyone trying to get on the global warming gravy train) does. You start with the assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the explanation for any unexplained warming. You then look for evidence to support that assumption. Any evidence found contrary to that assumption is discarded.

      If you want to dispute that you have to come up with a better scientific argument than they have.

      They don't have a scientific argument if they don't have a falsifiable hypothesis. Simply looking for additional data points to confirm original assumptions isn't science -> ruthlessly looking for *any* possible refutation of your hypothesis is.

      Clouds effects on global warming has been pretty intensely studied for the past decade. Dessler (2010) [tamu.edu] used cloud measurements over the whole planet from the CERES satellite from March 2000 to February 2010

      Less than a year's worth of data, and we're supposed to come to conclusions about climate and cycles that can happen over decades, centuries and even millennia?

      If the ocean is absorbing heat from the atmosphere it's going to get warmer. The ocean is not an infinite heat sink.

      I'd say it's effectively infinite, given the 4000+ to 1 ratio of heat capacity of the oceans to the atmosphere. An order of magnitude really does mean something here.

      You really ought to drop the undersea volcanoes argument. It is a hypothesis with no evidence to back it up. It makes it sound like your grasping at straws to support your position.

      I'm not sure why we would assume that only above ground volcanoes can affect climate...certainly, the aerosol effects of ash are relatively short lived, and the heat fro

    211. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Menne et. al. uses unadjusted raw data. The differences in instruments you noted is one of the reasons temperature records are adjusted (normalized).

      I would say that insisting that global warming can't be caused by CO2 is hubris. As I said, the radiative properties of CO2 are well known. We can measure the radiative emissions at the surface and on up to the top of the atmosphere and can see the signature of CO2 in how it changes as you go up. What is it that cancels out that effect?

      Actually, that's *exactly* what most climate scientists ... does. You start with the assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the explanation for any unexplained warming. You then look for evidence to support that assumption. Any evidence found contrary to that assumption is discarded

      Any scientist who operated that way could expect their scientific reputations to be destroyed once the truth was discovered. Do you really think the more than 95% of climate scientists who accept the consensus of CO2 causing global warming would risk that? It's not impossible that they are wrong but it's not credible to believe that all of them would be doing it dishonestly. I'm not sure what is not falsifiable about climate theory. It may not happen as fast as you like but certainly the passage of time will show whether they are right or wrong.

      Less than a year's worth of data, ...

      March 2000 to February 2010 is 10 years of data. The satellite that collected the data was launched in December of 1999. Dessler didn't come to any conclusions about climate cycles, just that the net effect of clouds on the energy balance during that period appeared to be slightly positive. He also said they need more data for longer periods to improve the conclusions.

      I'd say it's effectively infinite, ...

      Got any hard evidence to back that up? The transfer of heat between the surface of the ocean and the depths isn't very fast. It takes about 1600 years for water that sinks in the North Atlantic to surface again in the North Pacific. Most of the ocean where there isn't significant upwelling or sinking doesn't effectively transfer much heat vertically. The surface will warm faster and it will take time (a long time in human time scales at least) for the heat to spread out in the depths. As I said, the lag time on temperatures because of oceanic buffering is 30-40 years, after that it will take thousands of years for the increased temperatures to spread out to the full depth of the oceans.

      I'm not sure why we would assume that only above ground volcanoes can affect climate ...

      Who is assuming anything? Volcanoes certainly can affect climate (Pinatubo) but there is no evidence of enough undersea volcanic activity to make a difference. I think you're assuming there is enough undersea activity to make a difference. Without some evidence that's just wishful thinking.

      A 100% CO2 atmosphere ... may indeed precipitate at higher altitudes.

      No, below about 5.2 atmospheres of pressure liquid CO2 can't exist at any temperature. Dry ice sublimates directly to the gaseous phase. Maybe a little of it could precipitate out as frost in Antarctica when it's really cold but they've never found any layers of CO2 in the ice down there so it doesn't happen much and doesn't remove CO2 from the atmosphere for any length of time.

      Granted, but supersaturation of CO2 in water happens :)

      Yep, that's what makes soda pop fizzy. The only place that happens in nature is some volcanic springs. Lake Nyos in Cameroon killed 1700 people when the CO2 in it's depths was released.

      Neither of your solar prediction links makes any

    212. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Except it's not water vapor that causes extreme weather events, it's large temperature differentials (those "LOW" and "HIGH" pressure areas during the weather report).

      Not entirely true. Water vapour feeds storms. Try a quick google search of that last sentence for more info.

      if the ocean transferred a mere *fraction* of its energy into the atmosphere, we could raise the temperature of the atmosphere significantly above anything imaginable.

      You have nailed it. We have significantly raised the ocean surface temperature. This extra energy is fueling storms. Do a quick google search on "Sea surface temperature storms"

      The trend clearly hasn't accelerated over the past 15 years of increased CO2, and any trend you could possibly discern from CO2 is overwhelmed by all the other natural variables

      You are absolutely right. The other natural variables create wibbles and wobbles that dwarf any trend of less than 30 years. In order to see the trend you would need to filter out the wibbles and wobbles by applying a 10 year mean. The good news is that this is easy to do. Check out woodfortrees.org. I have applied a 10 year mean to the temperature data. You can add solar output to the chart to see how the two compare. Woodfortrees is a great resource. You can add other reconstructions to see how they compare. You can even add the solar index and CO2 to see how they match up.

      (not to mention, CO2 has an upper limit of effect, and has a log function of effect, diminishing as it gets higher).

      We clearly haven't hit any upper limit, and accelerated output of GHG as well as feedbacks are clearly more than making up for the logarithmic rate.

      The problem is that the "hottest year on record" metric is an artifact with no meaning. It's a single point that you'll see over and over again during any period of natural temperature increase.

      It means just what you said that it means. That the temperature is increasing. I was making the exact same point.

      and you'll note we've been exiting a particularly cold period in history

      I would hardly consider an interglacial to be a cold period. As you have noted previously we should be expecting the temperatures to be dropping.

      Hansen, et. al., regularly massage the data points to make these ludicrous claims, and if there was any sort of quality control,

      Now you are getting into conspiracy theory territory. I won't follow you there. I will only note that skeptics Richard Mueller, Roy Spencer, and Anthony Watts have all performed independent validation of the temperature reconstructions and found them to be robust.

      Natural changes in the climate and weather due to known and unknown external and internal factors that change in both chaotic and cyclical ways. For example, every wild temperature change, extreme weather event, record high, record low, that every existed for the past 4.5 billion years.

      All of these had a cause. What is the cause of the current warming?

      Would you even consider that the answer to "why not" is that your original hypothesis is incorrect, and that in fact, natural variability can cause dramatic changes, in either direction, without fully understood causes because of the massive complexity and interconnectedness of weather and climate phenomena?

      Yes, of course I would accept that the original hypothesis is incorrect, and no, I wouldn't accept that the reason for the changes is unknowable. I would find out the reason for the change. The alternative is a defeatist attitude that goes against my natural curiosity.

    213. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Water vapour feeds storms. Try a quick google search of that last sentence for more info.

      Let me restate - while water vapor is necessary for thunderstorms, extreme weather events, including those without precipitation, such as tornadoes, are driven by pressure and temperature differentials. Reducing those differentials should lead to milder weather, not more extreme weather.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/todays-tornado-outlook-high-risk-of-global-warming-hype/

      You have nailed it. We have significantly raised the ocean surface temperature.

      Properly stated, ocean surface temperature has always changed:

      http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat_content55-07.png

      And even dropped in the presence of ever higher CO2 concentrations. That all being said, why would we assume that the atmosphere is driving ocean temperatures, rather than the other way around? The heat content of the ocean outweighing the heat content of the entire atmosphere by over 4000:1 seems to be an indication that if were were to look for *causes*, they would be oceanic rather than atmospheric. As examples, see PDO, ENSO, ADO, etc.

      The other natural variables create wibbles and wobbles that dwarf any trend of less than 30 years.

      Why would we assume that a trend of 30 years or more eliminates any trends caused by natural variables?

      We clearly haven't hit any upper limit, and accelerated output of GHG as well as feedbacks are clearly more than making up for the logarithmic rate.

      I'm not sure how you can say that. The logarithmic rate will always limit any linear progression (which, if you look at atmospheric CO2 levels, is what we've been experiencing). Only a geometric progression (and a steep one at that), would "make up" for the logarithmic rate.

      That the temperature is increasing. I was making the exact same point.

      I'm not sure you are. I believe your point is "the temperature is increasing *and* it's because of human produced CO2". On any given time scale, understanding that climate naturally changes, I could agree with the first one (and it's corollary "the temperature is decreasing").

      Put another way, it seems that the presence of a "hottest year ever" indicates to you that it must be so because of artificial influences on the climate, rather than just a statistical artifact that we see during points of warming throughout earth's history. Because the "hottest year ever" is necessary for the CAGW hypothesis to be correct, it is subject to a great deal of data massaging - but let's not mistake *necessary* for *sufficient*.

      As you have noted previously we should be expecting the temperatures to be dropping.

      And on the scale that matters to me and my neighbors, we have been seeing dropping temperatures. While granted, regional temperatures can buck the trend of any artificial "global average temperature", it also brings up the distinct possibility that the "hottest year ever" is simply a statistical artifact, and a politically motivated one at that.

      They can adjust their global average temperature to whatever they want, but they can't stop it from being colder all across the US, and other places around the world where people actually live and experience the weather. I wouldn't go so far as to say we can definitively detect a global average trend one way or the other -> the whole sensor station network for global temperatures is woefully lacking for any sort of confidence.

      I will only note that skeptics Richard Mueller, Roy Spencer, and Anthony Watts have all performed independent validation of the temperature

    214. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      while water vapor is necessary for thunderstorms, extreme weather events, including those without precipitation, such as tornadoes, are driven by pressure and temperature differentials.

      Two points to consider: 1) We haven't eliminated the diurnal temperature differential but we have increased water vapour which does feed storms. 2) It is possible to eliminate the diurnal temperature differential and still have spacial differentials - and we have increased water vapour which does feed storms.

      You are taking a curious position. When faced with facts that are in conflict with your theory, you chose to change the facts rather than your theory. The facts are that diurnal temperature differential is decreasing, but severe weather events are increasing. You seem to think that this system is too complex to understand, but you know for sure that these facts must be wrong because they don't align with your understanding. I'm not trying to be confrontational here but you may want to step back and think this one through. It doesn't seem like your method of inquiry will direct you towards the truth.

      why would we assume that the atmosphere is driving ocean temperatures, rather than the other way around?

      1) Because we are increasing the temperature of the atmosphere 2) Because equilibrium is required in the system 3) What do you propose is increasing the temperature of the ocean surface? The energy needs to come from somewhere. This is a very significant amount of energy - the equivalent of the energy released by about 56,000 nukes every hour. You are not proposing free energy are you?

      As examples, see PDO, ENSO, ADO, etc.

      This is an exchange of heat between atmosphere and ocean or northern and southern hemisphere. How do you propose that an exchange of heat between different parts of the system will add heat to the system?

      Why would we assume that a trend of 30 years or more eliminates any trends caused by natural variables?

      Well, it will eliminate ENSO and solar cycle, it will not eliminate Milankovitch cycles

      The logarithmic rate will always limit any linear progression

      No, you could have an accelerated input which dwarfs the logarithmic rate. You need to count all GHG, and you need to count feedbacks (including the release of methane (a GHG) from the arctic).

      I believe your point is "the temperature is increasing *and* it's because of human produced CO2".

      No, go back through the history. You stated that the temperature is not increasing. I stated that it must be because we just had the hottest year in the hottest decade. You stated that this only shows that the temperature is increasing. I stated that yes, that's what I said.

      And on the scale that matters to me and my neighbors, we have been seeing dropping temperatures.

      So which is it? Do you agree that the temperature has been rising (as you stated in the previous quote, or that temperature is not rising, as you stated in this quote?

      They can adjust their global average temperature to whatever they want

      Please, no more of this crazy conspiracy talk. Here is the temperature reconstructions from Spencer: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

      here is the analysis by Richard Mueller and the BEST team (funded by oil interests no less!): http://berkeleyearth.org/Resources/Muller_Testimony_31_March_2011

      Here is the analysis by Anthony Watts: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/11/the-long-awaited-surfacestations-paper/#more-39705

      Three vehement skeptics wh

    215. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      2) It is possible to eliminate the diurnal temperature differential and still have spacial differentials - and we have increased water vapour which does feed storms.

      I believe the prevailing AGW hypothesis proposes greater warming at the poles than the equator, leading to decreased spatial differentials.

      The facts are that diurnal temperature differential is decreasing, but severe weather events are increasing.

      I don't think you have accurate facts there. The fact is that diurnal temperature differential, particularly around urban areas, is decreasing. The fact is that severe weather events have not shown any increase or decrease trend over the past few hundred years, although with more development along costal areas we have had more humans affected by them.

      1) Because we are increasing the temperature of the atmosphere

      You're making an assertion that could go either way. An increase in temperature of the atmosphere can be *caused* by increased temperatures of oceans. We certainly observe this with warm currents moderating the climate around the UK...or are you suggesting that the warm air around London is what actually causes the current to be warm?

      How do you propose that an exchange of heat between different parts of the system will add heat to the system?

      I'm not suggesting that at all. What I am suggesting is that an increase in atmospheric heat can be the result of heat exchange, and external influences, not merely a greenhouse effect. That heat can come from tidal forces, the internal heat of the earth, solar heating of the oceans when cloud cover allows direct sunlight to heat the water, etc, etc. This isn't a matter a free heat, this is a matter of specific distribution.

      Well, it will eliminate ENSO and solar cycle, it will not eliminate Milankovitch cycles.

      There are certainly cycles that are between those, even if we haven't identified them all. We cannot simply assume that the only natural cycles are ENSO, solar, and Milankovitch.

      No, you could have an accelerated input which dwarfs the logarithmic rate. You need to count all GHG, and you need to count feedbacks (including the release of methane (a GHG) from the arctic).

      Except we don't have that. CO2 hasn't increased at a geometric rate sufficient to overwhelm it's logarithmic effect. Counting all other GHGs is based on the assumption that all of them are *caused* by CO2, and causality here is not determined.

      You stated that the temperature is not increasing. I stated that it must be because we just had the hottest year in the hottest decade. You stated that this only shows that the temperature is increasing. I stated that yes, that's what I said.

      I see the disconnect -> we're talking about different time periods. Specifically, 2010 was tied with 2005, which shows no statistically significant increase in temperature over the past 15 years. That being said, there is no doubt that throughout the 20th century, there was an increase in temperatures, which will make "the hottest decade ever" a fairly meaningless statistic. The challenge to CAGW is this -> while temperatures have refused to budge, CO2 has continued to rise.

      So perhaps I would have been better off to say, "The temperature is not always increasing, even though CO2 emissions are."

      Three vehement skeptics who took the time to look at the data - and when the data didn't match their theory - they changed their theory.

      Well, Hansen's global temps versus the US sited temps aside, isn't that what scientists are *supposed* to do?

      Can you give me an example of a single global warming believer who changed their theory when the data didn't match? :)

      This is not a sm

    216. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I believe the prevailing AGW hypothesis proposes greater warming at the poles than the equator, leading to decreased spatial differentials.

      You seem keenly aware of the fingerprints of warming due to GHG. You also seem keenly aware that these fingerprints have been observed in the real world. How do you reconcile this with your idea that the temp rise is not caused by GHG? Wrt decreased spacial differentials, there is not a smooth gradient between the poles and the equator. Increased polar temperatures does not mean decreased spacial differentials in Ohio.

      The fact is that severe weather events have not shown any increase or decrease trend over the past few hundred years, although with more development along costal areas we have had more humans affected by them.

      Check out the graph in this report: http://www.grid.unep.ch/product/publication/download/article_climate_change_hazards.pdf ""Much of the increase in the number of hazardous events is probably due to significant improvements in information access and also to population growth, but the number of floods and cyclones being reported is still rising compared to earthquakes."

      An increase in temperature of the atmosphere can be *caused* by increased temperatures of oceans.

      You are neglecting the fact that we know from physics that adding CO2 does increase the temperature of the atmosphere.

      We certainly observe this with warm currents moderating the climate around the UK...or are you suggesting that the warm air around London is what actually causes the current to be warm?

      Seriously??? You think that because temperature can move around from one part of the world to another via currents - somehow this means that even though both the ocean and the atmosphere are heating up the cause of the warming is due to the ocean heating up? This makes no sense.

      This isn't a matter a free heat, this is a matter of specific distribution.

      Redistributing the heat will throughout the system cannot heat up the system. This really doesn't make any sense.

      There are certainly cycles that are between those, even if we haven't identified them all.

      Why do you need to invoke unknown forcings? they are not required to explain observations.

      Specifically, 2010 was tied with 2005, which shows no statistically significant increase in temperature over the past 15 years.

      This doesn't follow.

      There is no doubt that throughout the 20th century, there was an increase in temperatures, which will make "the hottest decade ever" a fairly meaningless statistic.

      So, in your opinion is the temperature increasing or not? When every decade is warmer than the last, it seems like it must be increasing.

      The challenge to CAGW is this -> while temperatures have refused to budge, CO2 has continued to rise.

      You are still all over the map with this. Is it rising or isn't it?

      Can you give me an example of a single global warming believer who changed their theory when the data didn't match?

      Yes. Stephen Schneider once believed that CO2 would not dwarf other forcings and that we were headed (in the very long term) for global cooling. Our understanding of the climate is constantly being refined, but those refinements are becoming smaller and smaller as we get a better understanding.

      Three vehement skeptics who took the time to look at the data - and when the data didn't match their theory - they changed their theory.

      Well, Hansen's global temps versus the US sited temps aside, isn't that what scientists are *supposed* to do?

      Spencer and Mueller's reconstructions are global as well. They confirm NASA's findings. Yes, when faced with contradictory evidence a scientists should change is position. Will you?

    217. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You seem keenly aware of the fingerprints of warming due to GHG. You also seem keenly aware that these fingerprints have been observed in the real world. How do you reconcile this with your idea that the temp rise is not caused by GHG?

      Good question. The problem I have is that the "fingerprint" analogy isn't scientific. We often hear the phrase "is consistent with" when it comes to AGW, but that's a cop out. Every climate change and weather pattern "is consistent with" the hypothesis that a wrathful and arbitrary God causes all weather and climate changes - that doesn't mean that this hypothesis is true.

      What I'm interested in hearing is "if you don't see this fingerprint, AGW is falsified" or "if you do see this other fingerprint, AGW is falsified". To date, about the only thing I've heard AGW proponents here on slashdot state is "if you see falling temperatures (not merely stable ones), during an increase in CO2, over the next 20 years, I'll reconsider". Now, at least that's a stick in the ground, but I'd argue that we can take a look at history and find periods of 20 years of falling temperatures, and increased CO2, therefore fulfilling that falsification request. Of course any period I cite would probably be asserted as anomalous, or require some other special pleading...which gives me even more reason to doubt the utility of any AGW hypothesis.

      "Much of the increase in the number of hazardous events is probably due to significant improvements in information access and also to population growth, but the number of floods and cyclones being reported is still rising compared to earthquakes."

      Sounds like our detection rate of floods and cyclones has improved faster than our detection rate of earthquakes. See:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/19/why-it-seems-that-severe-weather-is-getting-worse-when-the-data-shows-otherwise-a-historical-perspective/

      You are neglecting the fact that we know from physics that adding CO2 does increase the temperature of the atmosphere.

      The question is, by how much, and how does that compare to other drivers (such as the ocean). We know from physics that the gulf stream current, which drives warm water towards england, increases atmospheric temperatures there. Would we assume that it is the warm atmosphere around england that drives the current?

      You think that because temperature can move around from one part of the world to another via currents - somehow this means that even though both the ocean and the atmosphere are heating up the cause of the warming is due to the ocean heating up?

      We have a concrete example here of water warming air. Why can't that also be true on a global scale? Does the interaction of water and air change based on region? If so, what causes this change in behavior?

      It is a perfectly reasonable hypothesis to posit that the ocean heating up causes the atmosphere to heat up. As to the question "where does the energy for the ocean to heat up come from?", you can posit tidal forces, undersea volcanoes, and even incoming solar energy not blocked by clouds or other atmospheric molecules. No need to violate any laws of thermodynamics here at all.

      Now, how would you falsify this hypothesis? I might suggest an experiment where you take a ratio of water to air similar to the ratio of ocean water to atmospheric content, and try to heat the air to warm the water, and try to heat the water to warm the air, and observe the effects.

      Redistributing the heat will throughout the system cannot heat up the system. This really doesn't make any sense.

      You're missing the corollary: Heating up the system will not necessarily distribute the heat in a predictable w

    218. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The facts are that diurnal temperature differential is decreasing, but severe weather events are increasing.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/the-tornado-pacific-decadal-oscillation-connection/

      "There are 2 main reasons why stronger tornadoes are usually associated with unseasonably cool conditions, and why there has been a decrease in strong tornadoes during a period of average warming:

      1) The missing ingredient for tornado formation is not a lack of warm moist air, but a lack of synoptic (large) scale wind shear.

      2) At least until recently, the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which has predominated since the late 1970’s has suppressed strong tornado activity."

    219. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The problem I have is that the "fingerprint" analogy isn't scientific. We often hear the phrase "is consistent with" when it comes to AGW, but that's a cop out.

      No, that is science. A consequence of warming due to CO2 is polar amplification. This was stated well before any warming due to CO2 was observed. Once we started to see the warming we check for the fingerprints. If we saw amplification near the equator we would have concluded that increased solar radiation is suspect. This is not what was found. You have to follow the facts. Working the other way around will not lead you to the truth.

      Sounds like our detection rate of floods and cyclones has improved faster than our detection rate of earthquakes. See: (a link to WUWT)

      Your statement that flood detection is increasing and your link that states we are detecting less floods is contradictory.

      The question is, by how much, and how does that compare to other drivers (such as the ocean).

      The answer is not unknown! There is uncertainty regarding sensitivity to those forcings, but even that is within a limited range.

      We have a concrete example here of water warming air. Why can't that also be true on a global scale?

      When both water and air are warming, you need to look for a reason that is neither the water or the air. This is not a case of energy moving around, but of energy being added.

      you can posit tidal forces, undersea volcanoes, and even incoming solar energy not blocked by clouds or other atmospheric molecules.

      Except that none of these are sufficient.

      However, the existence of unknown forcings (which is nearly guaranteed), means that any explanation for current observations without that knowledge is flawed.

      Perhaps there are unknown forcings, but not certainly, and certainly not at a level where they make any kind of measurable contribution. Otherwise we would need them to explain observations.

      My assertion is that temperature is not always increasing even though atmospheric CO2 is. When *not* every year and *not* every decade is warmer over the 20th century, even though CO2 *is* constantly increasing, it represents a falsification of the idea that CO2 drives temperature increases.

      Surely you are aware that CO2 is not the only driver of climate. You have demonstrated that knowledge. Why are you playing dumb with this last sentence?

      You're going in the wrong direction -> I'm looking for a CAGW believer, who upon examination of observational data, recognized that they were wrong

      If the data showed something different, then every scientific society would change their tune. As it stands, the data shows warming due to GHG, and every scientific society concludes GHG. What data do you have they they are not privy to?

      What you have here is an apocalyptic vision of global cooling replaced by an apocalyptic vision of global warming.

      It is hardly apocalyptic to conclude that someday within the next few thousand years we will likely leave the current interglacial. You have predicted the same. I would not accuse you of being alarmist.

      Look again at Spencer:

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

      How does that graph assert 2010 was the warmest year ever? 1998 looks at least .1 greater.

      Four points: 1) Satellite data exaggerates El Nino/La Nina. 1998 was a super El Nino. Even given that.. 2) Spencer has stated that 2010 is tied with 1998 and... 3) the trends are similar between Spencer's reconstruction and the others. Given all this... 4) Spencer believes that the other reconstructions are robust. Do you, or do you still cling to the conspiracy theories of manipulated data?

    220. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      A consequence of warming due to CO2 is polar amplification. This was stated well before any warming due to CO2 was observed. Once we started to see the warming we check for the fingerprints. If we saw amplification near the equator we would have concluded that increased solar radiation is suspect. This is not what was found.

      The fingerprint is off:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/06/another-look-at-polar-amplification/

      Your statement that flood detection is increasing and your link that states we are detecting less floods is contradictory.

      Not necessarily. We can get better at detecting floods, and also have less of them due to natural variation.

      That being said, how does a reduction in floods manage to be "consistent with" claims that warming (which has been observed), will create more floods?

      There is uncertainty regarding sensitivity to those forcings, but even that is within a limited range.

      I would assert that the uncertainty in a very large range, and a significant portion of that uncertainty is probably because we don't understand all of the forcings at work in our system.

      When both water and air are warming, you need to look for a reason that is neither the water or the air. This is not a case of energy moving around, but of energy being added.

      Okay, I follow, but I don't think you can be certain. When both water and air are warming, it could very well be the motion of energy from the core of the earth towards the surface, and therefore the oceans, and therefore the air.

      Do you have a global average temperature metric for the entire solid mass of the planet? Has there been any trend?

      Except that none of these are sufficient.

      Known forcings being insufficient does not lead us to the conclusion that all of the rest of the warming must be driven by CO2. That's arguing that anything we don't know (which is legion), must be explained by a magical gas.

      When we derive the effect of CO2 by observation, and elimination of all other known effects, we are inconsiderately ignoring unknown effects.

      Perhaps there are unknown forcings, but not certainly, and certainly not at a level where they make any kind of measurable contribution. Otherwise we would need them to explain observations.

      That doesn't follow. The assumption that unknown forcings have no measurable contribution is an assertion, not an observation. It is quite possible that we *need* them in order to *properly* explain observations, and that currently, we are *improperly* explaining observations.

      Surely you are aware that CO2 is not the only driver of climate.

      Yes, I am. I also assert that it is only a minor driver of climate, whereas, if I was to infer from your argument thus far, you believe it is a major driver of climate. I would assert that the fact that we have, on every scale of observation, seen any asserted contribution of CO2 overwhelmed by other drivers (which naturally occur on every timescale), we have no reason to believe that this won't continue to happen in the future, both on the upside and the downside.

      If the data showed something different, then every scientific society would change their tune.

      That's very optimistic of you. I tend to see most of the scientific societies and their recommendations as encumbered by institutional inertia, but here's one example of a turnaround:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/17/aps-edito-reverses-position-on-global-warming-cites-considerable-presence-of-skeptics/

    221. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Also, here's another critique of the temperature record used by the NCDC:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/26/a-new-paper-comparing-ncdc-rural-and-urban-us-surface-temperature-data/

      Some very interesting graphs there.

    222. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I would say that insisting that global warming can't be caused by CO2 is hubris.

      Interesting. Stating that our current state of knowledge is insufficient to definitively assert that CO2 is the primary driver of climate changes is prideful? Or perhaps I wasn't clear -> I'm not insisting that global warming absolutely cannot be caused by changes in CO2 levels, I'm expressing doubt that the proposition is true. I could be convinced, if every change in CO2 levels, both contemporary and historical, preceded a similar change in temperature. As far as the data shows at this point, this burden of proof has not been met, so I express what I would consider well founded skepticism.

      Do you really think the more than 95% of climate scientists [uic.edu] who accept the consensus of CO2 causing global warming would risk that?

      Yes. I think that that promise of funding and financial security is a corrupting influence on results. I believe that prima facie evidence for this can be easily found in the Climategate emails, which showed a cabal of climate scientists defending their turf not with data or argument, but with politics and editorial influence.

      Furthermore, I would look closer at that 95% assertion:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/25/where-consensus-fails/

      March 2000 to February 2010 is 10 years of data.

      My apologies, misread that - still, my point holds, as you note: "He also said they need more data for longer periods to improve the conclusions."

      The transfer of heat between the surface of the ocean and the depths isn't very fast.

      True, which makes for variability based on a situation based 1600 years ago rather than variability based on the past 150 years. Now, you might make the case that there is heat we've pumped out for the past 150 years that is now entering the ocean system, and in 1600 years from now it'll come home to roost, but it sounds like you've got a significant time buffer there.

      Perhaps you're also trying to make the case that besides being a slow transfer, it is also an insignificant transfer? That is to say, are you asserting that not only does it take 1600 years for currents to well up and affect the surface, but that the effect after 1600 years is negligible?

      I'd point out again the gulf stream warming England, and ask the question if we should believe that it is england's warm atmosphere that causes the water to be warm, rather than the other way around.

      there is no evidence of enough undersea volcanic activity to make a difference.

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/19/undersea-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga/

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/25/surprise-explosive-volcanic-eruption-under-the-arctic-ice-found/

      "A major part of Earth’s volcanism happens at the so-called mid-ocean ridges and, therefore, completely undetected on the seafloor. There, the continental plates drift apart; liquid magma intrudes into the gap and constantly forms new seafloor through countless volcanic eruptions. Accompanied by smaller earthquakes, which go unregistered on land, lava flows onto the seafloor. These unspectacular eruptions usually last for only a few days or weeks."

      http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12218

      "The true extent to which the ocean bed is dotted with volcanoes has been revealed by researchers who have counted 201,055 underwater cones. This is over 10 times more than have been found before.

      The team estimates that in total there could be about 3 million submarine volcanoes

    223. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The fingerprint is off:

      I think you may have been confused by the blog post that you sited. You do not need to go through those convolutions to determine whether there has been polar amplification. We can just take direct measurements.

      Not necessarily. We can get better at detecting floods, and also have less of them due to natural variation.

      Then you have failed to account for why natural disasters are rising faster than earthquakes. You have said a lot, but failed to show anything.

      I would assert that the uncertainty in a very large range, and a significant portion of that uncertainty is probably because we don't understand all of the forcings at work in our system.

      Why do you keep invoking mysterious forces that are not necessary to explain any known phenomenon?

      it could very well be the motion of energy from the core of the earth towards the surface, and therefore the oceans, and therefore the air.

      It could just as easily be unicorns. There is no reason to believe that it is either, but I see that you are a very skeptical person who is not willing to dismiss any idea no matter how bizarre.

      Known forcings being insufficient does not lead us to the conclusion that all of the rest of the warming must be driven by CO2.

      Of course not! What a bizarre idea!

      That's arguing that anything we don't know (which is legion), must be explained by a magical gas.

      Magical gas? Really? CO2 is a magical gas?

      When we derive the effect of CO2 by observation, and elimination of all other known effects, we are inconsiderately ignoring unknown effects.

      I think I understand the source of your confusion. You think that we know the effects of CO2 by measuring CO2 and measuring temperature and attributing any correlation to CO2. You are wrong. We know the effects of CO2 because of physics, and because we can measure incoming radiation and outgoing radiation at the bandwidth absorbed by CO2, and because we can measure that differential over time. It is also nice that there is a correlation, but correlation does not provide proof of causation.

      It is quite possible that we *need* (unknown forcings) in order to *properly* explain observations, and that currently, we are *improperly* explaining observations.

      Ever heard of Occam's razor? You keep trying to invoke unknown forces that are not necessary to explain any known phenomenon.

      if I was to infer from your argument thus far, you believe it is a major driver of climate.

      No. There is a yearly cycle that dwarfs every other cycle (called "seasons" ;-) ). There are other cycles that dwarf CO2 such as ENSO but are dwarfed by these "seasons". But none of these cycles will drive a trend. The trend is driven by CO2.

      Here's one example of a turnaround:

      I feel like this Watts guy may be misleading you. Here is the APS policy on global warming: http://www.aps.org/policy/statements/07_1.cfm Nothing in this statement is inconsistent with the consensus view.

      I believe the assertion was within a century

      Nope. Schneider never said any such thing - and it is clear from his publications that he never believed any such thing.

      there has been no statistically significant trend of warming since 1998.

      No statistically significant warming trend does not mean that there has been no warming trend. There has. If this seems confusing or contradictory, then you will want to research what statistically significant means. It doesn't mean what you think it means.

      You also provided a link detailing what may be inconsistencies in the US record. When I pr

    224. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      True. There is not a strong link between global warming and tornadoes. You still need to address the disparity in the trend for natural disasters vs earthquakes.

    225. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Stating that our current state of knowledge is insufficient to definitively assert that CO2 is the primary driver of climate changes is prideful?

      It sounds like you think I'm saying the CO2 is the only driver of climate change. No, it isn't. Over the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth far more often than not it is not the driver of climate change. But it's also true that you always have to factor in the radiative forcing of CO2 in order to understand the temperature of the planet. So I would say, yes, every change in CO2 levels does precede related changes in temperature. But it takes several decades to a few centuries for the changes to fully manifest. As I said, mostly because of oceanic buffering, it takes 30-40 years for the atmosphere to catch up with the forcing so the temperature changes we're seeing now are about where we'd have ended up if we had stopped increasing the CO2 level in the 1970's-1980's. Even after the atmospheric temperature catches up there other feedbacks such as melting ice, sea level and ecosystems that take much longer to reach a new equilibrium.

      I think that that promise of funding and financial security is a corrupting influence on results.

      Scientists don't go into science to get rich. If they're that smart and want to get rich they get into finance and go to Wall Street. The money they get for grants does not line their pockets. It's spent on research, equipment, travel expenses, pay for subordinates, etc. They are paid salaries by the institutions that employ them. For PhD.'s it's usually in the $100,000 range which is a good living but it's not getting rich.

      The "climategate" emails are much ado about nothing. How many things have you said in private emails that could be misinterpreted by someone with malicious intent? I'm afraid I not aware of any politics (other than internal politics) in the emails. As far as editorial influence, if you're talking about the remark of one scientist about doing whatever he could to keep a paper out of the IPCC report, the paper in fact was referenced in the latest IPCC report so he wasn't influential enough to keep it out. If you're talking about the Soon & Baliunas (2003) paper published in Climate Research the fact is that the paper had several major errors and should not have been published without major revisions. For instance it used precipitation proxies where it should have used temperature proxies and regional temperature changes were taken to be global changes. The publisher of the journal refused to allow the editorial staff to publish a retraction and appology and as a result most of the editors resigned. In the "climategate" emails the scientists were simply asking why they should submit papers to a journal that would publish such obviously flawed research. It wouldn't do any good for their reputation. The publisher of Climate Research later admitted that the S&B paper should not have been published.

      My apologies, misread that - still, my point holds, as you note: "He also said they need more data for longer periods to improve the conclusions."

      Well just about any scientist worth his salt would say that. Research is their life. ;) But uncertainties (about clouds or anything else) just increases the magnitude of the error bars on their conclusions, they don't invalidate the conclusions. It's not an either/or thing that if they don't know everything then they know nothing. As in nearly all human endeavor we know more now than we knew last year and less than we will know next year.

      Volcanoes

      There may well be 3 million submarine volcanoes but what percent of them are active at any time? Here in Oregon I can see 4 volcanic peaks and a number of buttes on my way to work and in travels around the state I've seen hundreds of them. Not a one has erupted in my lifetime. Of course there's Mount St. Helens up in Washington that

    226. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You do not need to go through those convolutions to determine whether there has been polar amplification. We can just take direct measurements.

      There are specific values for polar amplification that are predicted by the AGW hypothesis. Simply because polar amplification *exists at all*, does not mean that it matches the prediction by the AGW hypothesis.

      "To create the polar amplification profile illustrated in the above figures in the GCMs, there had to be a doubling of CO2 or a 2% increase in solar irradiance. Neither happened in the last 3 to 4 decades, so what created the polar amplification profile? Real Climate provides the answer. El Nino events."

      Then you have failed to account for why natural disasters are rising faster than earthquakes.

      I don't accept that as proven.

      See: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/the-tornado-pacific-decadal-oscillation-connection/

      Why do you keep invoking mysterious forces that are not necessary to explain any known phenomenon?

      Why do you insist that any known phenomenon can simply be explained in toto by CO2 levels, without wondering what other influences are out there? Just because we can choose to explain average global temperature levels with CO2, does not mean that our explanation is *correct*.

      It could just as easily be unicorns

      And isn't that the problem? If you have a set of theories that do not provide any sort of falsification (unicorns or CO2 driven climate change), you're not doing science.

      You think that we know the effects of CO2 by measuring CO2 and measuring temperature and attributing any correlation to CO2. You are wrong.

      No, you are wrong.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/07/how-do-climate-models-work/

      "So, climate modelers simply assume that there are no natural long-term changes in clouds, water vapor, etc. But they do not realize that in the process they will necessarily come to the conclusion that the climate system is very sensitive (feedbacks are positive). As a result, they program climate models so that they are sensitive enough to produce the warming in the last 50 years with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. They then point to this as ‘proof’ that the CO2 caused the warming, but this is simply reasoning in a circle."

      Ever heard of Occam's razor? You keep trying to invoke unknown forces that are not necessary to explain any known phenomenon.

      I do understand Occam's razor, and I think given the two choices, "average global temperature changes are primarily driven by CO2" and "average global temperature changes are primarily caused by a complex array of natural forces we have not yet entirely identified", the simpler one is the "natural forces" hypothesis. In order to believe that climate change is primarily driven by CO2, we must buy into a large number of special pleadings to explain both past and present climate changes that were lagged by CO2 levels. By admitting our ignorance of "natural forces", we arrive at the simpler explanation, even if it is not as intellectually satisfying.

      There are other cycles that dwarf CO2 such as ENSO but are dwarfed by these "seasons". But none of these cycles will drive a trend. The trend is driven by CO2.

      I think you need to be more specific. I think what you're *trying* to say is that none of the identified cycles will drive a trend on a period that is exactly the same as it's cycle length. Take your simple sine wave, and if you choose end points carefully, you can generate whatever trend you want.

      Now, to assume that a period like say, 30 years, is sufficient

    227. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Tornadoes are now not a natural disaster?

      Maybe we need to be more specific about what trend you're asserting. I'll argue that tornadoes are a pretty good example of an "extreme weather event". If there is a trend in tornadoes going one way, and a trend in floods going another way, and no trends in earthquakes, our calculus, *even if we assume that the difference is due to average global atmospheric temperature*, needs to be modified per type of extreme weather event.

      I'm fully open to the idea that average global temperature changes may create differing trends in different types of extreme weather events. I'm not going to take on faith that we know that this will be an overall bad thing for a warmer world (or an overall good thing for a colder world). Simply asserting blindly that there are *only* more natural disasters in a warmer world, with no measurable benefits or compensations, is a fairly complex assertion.

    228. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      There is no trend in tornadoes according to the various skeptic blogs I read. No one is asserting anything blindly. I have shown you a graph that shows the number of natural disasters accelerating, while the number of earthquakes is not. You stated that there are certain natural disasters that are not accelerating, but you have failed to identify the ones that are. As it turns out, the ones that are are exactly the ones we would expect.

    229. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Ok, we have talked long enough to know the others position. My assertion is that there is no need to invoke unknown forces to explain unobserved phenomenon. You claim that Occam's razor dictates that the easiest answer is always right, and of course the easiest answer is "We don't know". Thank God scientists don't share your understanding of Occam's razor or we would know nothing at all.

      For instance, let's apply our understandings to the seasons. I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit. Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun.

      You would of course argue that we cannot be certain that there is not some other force, and that force may be required to accurately understand the phenomenon. It doesn't matter that the known data is fully explained by the known forcings, it is possible that the data is wrong.

      This is science? It could be unicorns?

      With respect to whether or not the temperature has been rising, you are alone in thinking that it has not. Every temperature reconstruction shows the same trend. Even the ones created by people who really hoped to find no trend. By failing to acknowledge this you are remaining willfully ignorant.

      By the way, 1) The reason we over sample is so that errors in trends will cancel each other out. Watts has found that this strategy is working. 2) You are the only one who ever suggested that there should be a statistically significant trend over any timescale no matter how small. This idea is ludicrous. 3) I'll concede to your point on Schneider. 4) Spencer is referring to climate sensitivity, not to the known forcing of CO2. That is, given that the world will warm by about 1C for a doubling of CO2, how much more should we expect from feedbacks? Spencer does not dispute the known forcing of CO2.

    230. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I have shown you a graph that shows the number of natural disasters accelerating, while the number of earthquakes is not.

      Let's be specific. Your reference showed no trend with earthquakes, and trends with floods and cyclones. I'm assuming "cyclones" here is a synonym for "tornadoes", or close enough so that we can treat them the same.

      In their "all disasters" category, they lumped together:

      drought, earthquake, extreme temperature, famine, flood, insect infestation, slides, volcanic eruption, wave/surge, wild fires, and windstorm.

      The reference primarily focused on the "floods, cyclones, earthquakes" as their evidence (since obviously volcanic eruption and other of the "all disasters" don't have a primary direct mechanism based on average atmospheric temperature.

      I've shown you data that contradicts their assertions on cyclones, leaving them only floods. Flood reporting increase is trivially explained by an exponential increase in population growth in areas subject to flooding. They even mention this in the text: "This is particularly true as the strongest population growth is located in coastal areas (with greater exposure to fl oods, cyclones and tidal waves)."

      So, upon closer inspection of the data, I've refuted the increased cyclonic activity, and come up with a viable alternate explanation for the reported flood increase.

      Now that you have better information, are you willing to consider that unlike the prediction of CAGW, we have seen no trend in climactic disasters based on average temperature increase?

    231. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      More interesting notes on the topic:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/05/going-down-death-rates-due-to-extreme-weather-events/

      "Despite the recent spate of deadly extreme weather events – such as the 2003 European heat wave and the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons in the USA – aggregate mortality and mortality rates due to extreme weather events are generally lower today than they used to be.

      Globally, mortality and mortality rates have declined by 95 percent or more since the 1920s. The largest improvements came from declines in mortality due to droughts and floods, which apparently were responsible for 93 percent of all deaths caused by extreme events during the 20th Century. For windstorms, which, at 6 percent, contributed most of the remaining fatalities, mortality rates are also lower today but there are no clear trends for mortality. Cumulatively, the declines more than compensated for increases due to the 2003 heat wave."

      Also see:
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/19/devastating-non-trends-in-us-climate/

    232. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Regarding the 20 year temperature trend, and the various global datasets:

      http://www.masterresource.org/2009/10/a-cherry-pickers-guide-to-temperature-trends/

    233. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You claim that Occam's razor dictates that the easiest answer is always right, and of course the easiest answer is "We don't know". Thank God scientists don't share your understanding of Occam's razor or we would know nothing at all.

      You're misunderstanding the application of Occam's razor, and more particularly, how we could possibly apply it to chaotic systems. In order to understand the PDO and ENSO, we don't simply measure things, and then attribute all of our observations of ignorance to those two phenomena. We ruthlessly filter, challenge and try to falsify our assertions. Your interpretation of Occam's razor is "if I have a hypothesis, and nobody else does, it automatically must be true because it's simpler than the alternative that we don't know". This is a faulty interpretation.

      For instance, let's apply our understandings to the seasons. I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit. Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun.

      So by that token, would you explain the Year Without a Summer in 1816 as a change in the tilt of the earth's axis?

      By your hypothesis, you would've predicted that 1816 would have had a normal summer. As it turned out, an unknown factor entered the equation, and modified the results. Attributing the unknown factor instead to your original hypothesis would have required a special pleading for a anomalous change in the tilt of the earth's axis.

      Here's another interesting note:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/26/evidence-that-early-antarctic-circumpolar-current-development-affected-global-climate/

      Here, the evidence shows that without significant ocean currents, heat distribution throughout the world would be more even, leading to less notable seasons, despite the earth's axial tilt.

      With respect to whether or not the temperature has been rising, you are alone in thinking that it has not. Every temperature reconstruction shows the same trend.

      Wrong again. Look carefully at the global temperature trend graph here:

      http://www.masterresource.org/2009/10/a-cherry-pickers-guide-to-temperature-trends/

      1) The reason we over sample is so that errors in trends will cancel each other out. Watts has found that this strategy is working.

      Agreed, however I still hold that the increased uncertainty discovered by Watts is important to understand the trend.

      2) You are the only one who ever suggested that there should be a statistically significant trend over any timescale no matter how small. This idea is ludicrous.

      I believe you're misunderstanding me - I merely suggest that there *could* be a statistically significant trend over any timescale. As for small timescales with statistically significant trends, I'll simply offer the temperature difference over your house from 9am to 12 midnight.

      Spencer is referring to climate sensitivity, not to the known forcing of CO2. That is, given that the world will warm by about 1C for a doubling of CO2, how much more should we expect from feedbacks? Spencer does not dispute the known forcing of CO2.

      I don't think anyone disputes the "known forcing of CO2" as measured in a laboratory - the question is, is this significant when in the real world, and we have the possibility of both more *and less* due to competing feedbacks. More pointedly, the question being posed to the layperson is, "will this be a bad thing?"

      I would argue the following - the expectation of more warming due to positive feedbacks with additional CO2 is grossly overstated, and l

    234. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You claim that Occam's razor dictates that the easiest answer is always right, and of course the easiest answer is "We don't know". Thank God scientists don't share your understanding of Occam's razor or we would know nothing at all.

      :For instance, let's apply our understandings to the seasons. I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit. Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun.

      You would of course argue that we cannot be certain that there is not some other force, and that force may be required to accurately understand the phenomenon. It doesn't matter that the known data is fully explained by the known forcings, it is possible that the data is wrong.

      So by that token, would you explain the Year Without a Summer in 1816 as a change in the tilt of the earth's axis?

      By your hypothesis, you would've predicted that 1816 would have had a normal summer. As it turned out, an unknown factor entered the equation, and modified the results. Attributing the unknown factor instead to your original hypothesis would have required a special pleading for a anomalous change in the tilt of the earth's axis.

      Wow... I didn't see that coming. You really don't believe that the seasons are attributed to the tilt? This is firmly grounded in physics! We could even recreate this in a lab. Oh, right - the lab is not the same as the real world. What about the correlation? Of course as you say, correlation != causation.

      The theory has great predictive value! Oh, right. 1816 wasn't predicted by this. There could be another - or even many other - forces that are needed to explain seasons. Even if all data is explained by known forcings there could be unknown data that is explained by unknown forcings, as you have claimed earlier

      . But wait! None of the scientific societies in the world dispute the theory. Surely that should be worth something... of course you have already pointed out that there is corruption and inertia that is preventing them from seeing the truth. Well, I don't know what I can do to convince you. On the flip side, there is very little that could shake my belief. There is too much evidence in my opinion. I suppose you are right that this make me a bit of a zealot and my belief more of a religion than science. I really do believe that I'm right on this one but other than physics, predictive value, correlation, and consensus I don't really have any good arguments for it.

      You skepticism knows no bounds. I concede. You are very clever indeed.

    235. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1
      Each reconstruction measures different things in different ways. Looking at this year or that is not particularly instructive. Here is the big picture: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1979/trend/offset:-0.074/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1979/trend/plot/uah/trend/offset:0.225/plot/rss/trend/offset:0.14

      This shows trend for all reconstructions since the satellite record began. Guess which direction they are all heading? Even Spencer's UAH is headed that way. Still don't believe that temperatures are rising? Then your monitor is upside down. I give up. As you have stated many times, you are unable to know anything for sure. I find myself finally agreeing with you.

    236. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      That's a pretty bold assumption (that natural variability cycles zero out in 30 years). I'd point to recurring ice ages on the order of magnitude of tens of thousands of years as a trivial refutation of that idea.

      Natural variability in this context refers to things like the 11 year solar cycle (actually 22 year), the El Nino/La Nina Cycles, and things like the PDO and AMO. The glaciation/deglaciation cycles of the ice age are natural variability due mostly to Milankovitch cycles which operate on scales of thousands of years and can be ignored for the purposes of this discussion.

      Keep in mind that hsthompson69 does not believe that anything can be known about climate. He is not even willing to accept that seasons are caused by the tilt of the earth's axis relative to it's orbit - There are just too many variables according to him! Here is the quote: http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=2174026&cid=36276682

    237. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      :)

      Yes, I can see that. But sometimes I just get a bug about not allowing a climate change denier the last word. Sometimes I'll spend an hour or more researching my reply and it solidifies my understanding of the situation. No doubt in 20 years he'll still be coming up with alternative explanations for a world that continues to warm and become a bitter old man when the world doesn't conform to his expectations.

    238. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure what you're trying to show with your linear trend from arbitrary points. The whole cherry picker's guide I referenced illustrated quite clearly that your trend can be nearly anything if you're careful with your end points.

      That being said, the fact that temperatures rose from 1979 - 2011 does not necessarily require that anyone accept that this temperature rise was due to anthropogenic CO2, nor that this temperature rise was a bad thing for humanity or the biosphere, nor that this temperature rise is something we should expect to continue in the indefinite future. It is perfectly plausible that the 1979-2011 period you referenced was completely within the bounds of natural variability, without any special requirement for a particularly CO2-sensitive climate, and that we are as likely as not to enter periods of cooling and warming in the future that are similar in rate and magnitude.

    239. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Wow... I didn't see that coming. You really don't believe that the seasons are attributed to the tilt?

      I believe the tilt plays a part, but I don't believe that the tilt is the only factor, nor necessarily the dominant factor at any abritrary point in time. The evidence of a globe with less temperature differential between the poles and the equator in the distant past, without a large difference in the axial tilt of the plant, gives us evidence for this postulation.

      Now, let's play science for a moment by your rules, and blindly accept that seasons are caused by axial tilt, with no other variables being particularly relevant, and any unknown variables not worth looking at. Satisfied with our explanation, why bother to examine periods of time which may refute our belief? Why even consider expanding upon our scientific knowledge, if we already know that the answer *must* be as we imagine.

      On the other hand, let's play science by the rules of ruthless skepticism. The axial tilt may be a decent rule of thumb, but we push at it. We search for refutations, for instances of periods of time when there were no seasons, even though there *was* axial tilt. This leads us to research into global ocean currents, and heat transfer mechanisms, and amazing new discoveries about factors we may never have considered as important before. Now, in retrospect, it certainly seems obvious that the delay of energy transfer from one place to another on earth is incredibly important (certainly, if all the solar energy that hit the earth was instantaneously distributed evenly across the globe, we wouldn't have night and day temperature differences, much less seasonal ones).

      By the same token, we can differentiate our approach to discerning the effect of CO2 on climate. You seem to be very convinced that CO2 drives climate, and that any unknowns at this point are irrelevant, and unnecessary to explore further. I, on the other hand, refuse to end the investigation, and demand an accounting beyond simply "we can't explain it better than how we explain it with CO2". Which approach encourages more learning? Which approach considers the case closed and the important data already in hand?

      Understanding that there are limits to our knowledge is not an abdication of further exploration, which I seem to think you perceive from my argument. On the other hand, insisting that our knowledge is complete enough at this point, and that "the science is settled", is exactly the kind of meme that ends scientific inquiry, and stymies the scientific process.

      Make no mistake, my skepticism isn't any sort of ruse, or any sort of backdoor "intelligent design" strategy -> I am not asserting that there is no more knowledge to be gained, and that we should abandon all hope in the face of chaotic and unpredictable systems...on the contrary, I believe the chaotic and unpredictable nature of climate means that there is a nearly unlimited world of scientific discovery still available to us.

    240. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I believe the tilt (of the Earth's axis) plays a part (in the seasons), but I don't believe that the tilt is the only factor, nor necessarily the dominant factor

      Well, I will leave your last post as a testament to your understanding of climate science and science in general. This post will haunt you. You would do well to start back pedaling. In case you are willing to dig deeper, do you think that El Nino is solely, primarily, or not necessarily the dominant factor in ENSO? Hint: ENSO stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation. This is a gimmie, but you have never failed to surprise in the past, so...

    241. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Well, I'll refer you again to the Late Eocene, where as the references I gave you indicated, temperature differentials between the equator and poles weren't nearly as dramatic as they are today. The hypothesis is that this lack of significant seasonality compared to modern day times is due to changes in ocean currents, rather than a change in the tilt of the planet. So perhaps a good way of putting it is that an axial tilt is *necessary* for our four seasons outside of the equatorial zone, but not *sufficient*.

      As for ENSO and El Nino, you're making a poor analogy - it's like you're asking if CO2 is solely, primarily, or not necessarily the dominant factor in CO2 based warming. It's a tautology, not a question of comparing one factor to another, like comparing El Nino to say, sunspots or irrigation practices or volcanic activity.

      Now, if you were to ask me if the ENSO is solely, primarily, or not necessarily the dominant factor in terms of temperature and precipitation in Southern California, *that* would be more apropos. As it is, I believe that it represents a very large factor, if not a dominant one, in that particular region, although not necessarily California wide. Of course, El Ninos vary in intensity, but I take it as a fairly well established given that pacific ocean water temperatures have a significant effect on California weather.

      As for haunting, I'll be very amused if in 20 years, slashdot is still around, and temperatures have fallen dramatically despite increasing CO2 :) I'll be sure to remind you of your current beliefs then :)

    242. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The tilt in the Earth's axis is not sufficient to cause the seasons? Ocean currents are also necessary? Wow, I wish I could toss you another shovel but you are so far down I can barely see you at this point. I guess it's a good thing we have the oceans otherwise we wouldn't have seasons.

    243. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      The whole cherry picker's guide I referenced illustrated quite clearly that your trend can be nearly anything if you're careful with your end points.

      Yes, the guide showed that if you pick a sufficiently short period (7 years) and choose a cool year for your end point (2004) then you can show a cooling trend. Bravo to the guide for demonstrating how to pick cherries, and bravo to your for eating them!

    244. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      The problem I think you're having here is an inability to understand that this particular cherry picking sword cuts both ways -> you could restate your sentence as "if you pick a sufficiently short period (20 years) and choose a warm year for your end point, then you can show a warming trend". Remember, I'm the one here asserting that over any given point in time we should expect natural warming and natural cooling cycles, and if one cherrypicks, in either direction, you can get results consistent with that. Asserting that we should only expect an artificial warming cycle requires means that there are a whole bunch of cherries which are not consistent with that.

      Of course, the point still holds that the existence of a trend (of magnitude and rate we can easily find in pre-industrial times), does not necessarily implicate anthropogenic CO2, nor does it require that temperature increases be catastrophic to humanity or the biosphere.

    245. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I guess it's a good thing we have the oceans otherwise we wouldn't have seasons.

      I'm not sure if that follows. A world without large seasonal variations may in fact be more hospitable to life and humanity (note the Late Eocene where the Antarctic was temperate, instead of freezing). Now as for geo-engineering currents to remove a necessary component of heat transfer to limit seasonal variation, I'm not sure if I'd support that, *however*, in any case, blindly asserting that seasonality is a "good thing" doesn't seem to be particularly scientific or well thought out.

      What certainly is a "good thing" is realizing the impact of and investigating the role of ocean currents and regional temperature variations, so that we can hopefully improve our ability to predict regional weather events on longer time scales than we currently can. Had we simply stopped and simply accepted that only the axial tilt is required to explain regional variations, we'd never reduce our level of ignorance.

    246. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1
      So, to sum up:

      We have talked long enough to know the others position. My assertion is that there is no need to invoke unknown forces to explain unobserved phenomenon. You claim that Occam's razor dictates that the easiest answer is always right, and of course the easiest answer is "We don't know". Thank God scientists don't share your understanding of Occam's razor or we would know nothing at all. :For instance, let's apply our understandings to the seasons. I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit. Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun.

      You would of course argue that we cannot be certain that there is not some other force, and that force may be required to accurately understand the phenomenon. It doesn't matter that the known data is fully explained by the known forcings, it is possible that the data is wrong.

      I believe the tilt plays a part, but I don't believe that the tilt is the only factor, nor necessarily the dominant factor

      I will leave your last post as a testament to your understanding of climate science and science in general.

      perhaps a good way of putting it is that an axial tilt is *necessary* for our four seasons outside of the equatorial zone, but not *sufficient*.

    247. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Sure, if you agree that an axial tilt is *necessary* for our four seasons outside of the equatorial zone, but not *sufficient*, then I think we're on the same page.

    248. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      So, to sum up:

      We have talked long enough to know the others position. My assertion is that there is no need to invoke unknown forces to explain unobserved phenomenon. You claim that Occam's razor dictates that the easiest answer is always right, and of course the easiest answer is "We don't know". Thank God scientists don't share your understanding of Occam's razor or we would know nothing at all. :For instance, let's apply our understandings to the seasons. I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit. Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun.

      You would of course argue that we cannot be certain that there is not some other force, and that force may be required to accurately understand the phenomenon. It doesn't matter that the known data is fully explained by the known forcings, it is possible that the data is wrong.

      HSThompson69: I believe the tilt plays a part, but I don't believe that the tilt is the only factor, nor necessarily the dominant factor

      I will leave your last post as a testament to your understanding of climate science and science in general.

      HSThompson69: perhaps a good way of putting it is that an axial tilt is *necessary* for our four seasons outside of the equatorial zone, but not *sufficient*.

      Is that an accurate summary?

      HSThompson69: Sure, if you agree that an axial tilt is *necessary* for our four seasons outside of the equatorial zone, but not *sufficient*, then I think we're on the same page.

      Oh god no. We don't agree on that. I don't think anyone would agree with that. I just wanted to make sure that you agreed with the summary.

    249. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      So, to be clear, your position is that the axial tilt of the earth is *sufficient* for the creation of the observed magnitude of seasonal differentiations of winter, summer, spring and fall outside of the equatorial zone, and there are *no other necessary factors*? Really?

      Will you concede that it also requires an atmosphere? Will you concede that it requires ocean currents to redistribute heat? Or are you literally hanging your hat on the axial tilt, with all other factors to be ignored?

      I'm not sure if you fully understand what you're disagreeing with.

    250. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      But it takes several decades to a few centuries for the changes to fully manifest. As I said, mostly because of oceanic buffering, it takes 30-40 years for the atmosphere to catch up with the forcing so the temperature changes we're seeing now are about where we'd have ended up if we had stopped increasing the CO2 level in the 1970's-1980's.

      I'll suggest this experiment - take an enclosed indoor swimming pool with an equilibrium state of the water at 72F and the air at 72F. Increase the air conditioning to 120F, and leave it there for an hour. Turn off the air conditioning. Questions to ask: 1) how much did the pool warm during that hour of 120F? 2) how long does it take for that warming to dissipate?

      I find it more reasonable to imagine that a 30 year buffer in the oceans is more related to direct solar influences on the ocean, rather than mediation through the atmosphere. If anything, it seems likely that the atmosphere only moderates it via albedo, rather than by heat transfer (given the incredibly small amount of heat the atmosphere carries compared to the oceans).

      Scientists don't go into science to get rich.

      That may be well and true, but that doesn't mean that they aren't incentivized to provide results that will continue the outside financial support of their research. It's not only rich people that are incented by money (and in fact, one might argue that poor people are *more* incented by it).

      The "climategate" emails are much ado about nothing.

      Have you read them? Have you read the HARRY_README.TXT? The Climategate emails, and the data that accompanied them, were a scathing indictment of the honesty and transparency of a group of scientists who were not interested in competing on equal ground with competing hypotheses.

      But uncertainties (about clouds or anything else) just increases the magnitude of the error bars on their conclusions, they don't invalidate the conclusions.

      An increase in magnitude of error bars on conclusions makes a conclusion much harder to assert. If I say the temperature may increase 1C over the next hundred years, +/- 10C, certainly my conclusion will not be falsified by any stretch of the imagination, but is it a *useful* conclusion? The fact that error bars in this case may be orders of magnitude greater than the trend we're supposed to be identifying makes these kinds of "conclusions" particularly unuseful.

      So I'm skeptical that even 1% of those 3 million submarine volcanoes has erupted in the past 50 years.

      That's fine, but still, 30,000 volcanoes erupting in the past 50 years is going to have an impact on the heat content of the ocean. There's no reason to dismiss that as negligible.

      And if you think the heat energy that volcanoes release is part of the cause of global warming it's negligible compared to the energy from the Sun every day. I doubt volcanic energy is even close to 1% of solar energy.

      I can definitely agree with the comparison of the sun to volcanic energy, but I think where I disagree is the comparison of the forcing of CO2 to volcanic energy.

      I've never heard of any solar scientist who said they could predict the cycles of the Sun beyond the current one.

      http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/

      Predicts both cycle 24 and 25. You'll note that their prediction for 24 is terribly off from reality, if you compare it to their current predictions.

      Regarding your "corollary" we know far more about the properties of CO2 than we do about what drives the Sun's cycles. I don't think the two are comparable. CO2 is far easier to study.

      I'd agree that in a laborat

    251. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Atmosphere and oceans are not necessary or even relevant. Without them, there would still be seasons. With them but without a tilt in the axis there would be no seasons. The tilt in the axis is not just the primary driver of the seasons, it is the only driver of the seasons. Here's a clue: Look up season in the dictionary.

      You have so committed yourself to the idea that nothing can be understood by science that you are willing to argue against things that are true by definition. You need to take one giant step back and reassess. Occam's razor does not say that the easiest hypothesis is the right one or that 'we don't know' is a valid hypothesis. Instead it recommends the hypothesis that makes the fewest new assumptions. That is why invoking unknown forces to explain unobserved data is no good. It makes two new assumptions that are not required: 1) There are unknown forces 2) there is unobserved data that would be explained by those unobserved forces and that would require the unobserved forces to explain them.

      You have created a convoluted mess in your head in order to come to the conclusion that CO2 cannot affect temperature. You would do better to let the conclusion follow from the facts. You are so committed to the conclusion that you cannot even accept that temperatures have risen over the last 30 years. Instead you believe that all six temperature reconstructions were cooked by zealots. Regardless of the fact that two (UAH and BEST) were done by skeptics who hoped to find a negative trend. Regardless of the fact that some were done using satellites and some were done with surface stations. Regardless of the fact that no matter who checks or which method they use they always find a warming trend. It is all a giant conspiracy. Nothing can be known.

      I would suggest that you and reality have had a bit of a falling out. Don't divorce her completely. That way lies madness.

    252. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Atmosphere and oceans are not necessary or even relevant. Without them, there would still be seasons.

      I suggest you reconsider your rather extreme and strange position. The current seasonal differentials in temperate and arctic climate would be *vastly* different without an atmosphere or ocean.

      Perhaps you're confusing the idea of having *any* sort of seasonality with having the observed modern seasonality? Again, I refer you to the Late Eocene when Antarctica was distinctly temperate, and when our current temperate regions were pretty much equivalent to our current tropical regions.

      Instead it recommends the hypothesis that makes the fewest new assumptions.

      Listen to yourself for a moment - the hypothesis that makes the fewest new assumptions about climate variation is the one that assumes that observed variations are natural. Assuming that CO2 is driving modern climate variation (whereas in the ice core record, it actually lags significantly), is a new assumption.

      You have created a convoluted mess in your head in order to come to the conclusion that CO2 cannot affect temperature.

      On the contrary, I believe it can affect temperature, but I believe that it is a vanishingly small effect overwhelmed by other natural forces. Your strawman here fails to illustrate my position.

      You are so committed to the conclusion that you cannot even accept that temperatures have risen over the last 30 years.

      On the contrary, I believe we have had both periods of warming and cooling over the past 30 years, and that through careful selection of endpoints, you can show any trend you want. You seem to have a real problem with understanding that.

      Furthermore, you continue to avoid the critical questions - any warming trend could be natural and unrelated to human activity of any sort, and any warming trend could be beneficial to humanity and the biosphere. You seem to believe that simply identifying a warming trend, over any given point in time, automatically means that I must accept that humans are the primary cause, and that the effect will be a "bad thing". Yes, the rooster crows and the sun come out at the same time, but that doesn't mean the rooster moved the sun, or that killing the rooster is going to end daytime as we know it. "The sky is falling" is a common refrain for apocalyptic preachers that seems to have been taken up in the guise of climate science.

      Occam's razor indeed :)

    253. Re:Climate Change Deniers by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I'll suggest this experiment ...

      What are you trying to prove? That water has a higher specific heat than air? Of course it does. That's the reason it takes the oceans 30+ years to warm up enough so the air temperature matches the forcing and feedbacks it is experiencing. Don't forget the second law of thermodynamics. Heat always transfers from the warmer body to the colder one. The average air temperature in the room won't reach 120F until the water in the pool does too (which takes a lot longer than 1 hour) because the water will be absorbing heat from the air. I suppose you could jamb the 120F air in fast enough that the average temperature is 119.999...F but until the two equalize it won't be 120F. The air temperature will depend on how fast you feed that 120F air in and how fast the water can absorb the heat. There's a dynamic balance between the two. That the buffering that keeps the air temperature below the input air temperature until the buffer is depleted.

      It's not only rich people that are incented by money ...

      A scientist is more incented by doing good science because once it is shown that they are not doing so their sources of funding will dry up. I guess you think there is some huge conspiracy by all of the different organizations making those funding decisions to push global warming. I have my conspiracy theories too but not about this.

      HARRY_README.TXT

      I have read it. I've also done a fair amount of coding in my life and used comments like that myself. I've used known data and extreme data to test my code. Unless you can prove that the code and data in question was used to produce the reported results you have nothing.

      If I say the temperature may increase 1C over the next hundred years, +/- 10C, certainly my conclusion will not be falsified by any stretch of the imagination, but is it a *useful* conclusion?

      Why don't you use real numbers? The uncertainty on model output for the 95% range of confidence is on the order of +/- 0.5C for temperature changes of 1-4C by 2100. If you're going to talk about uncertainty you need to use real numbers, not some imagined value.

      ... 30,000 volcanoes erupting in the past 50 years is going to have an impact on the heat content of the ocean.

      Why do you presume that there are orders of magnitude more volcanic activity in the ocean than on the land? The total number of eruptions on land during that time period is probably in the hundreds, not thousands, depending on how you define eruptions. Volcanoes simply can not put out enough heat to significantly affect surface temperatures globally. I've never heard a serious skeptic even try to use that argument before.

      Predicts both cycle 24 and 25. ...

      Thanks for the link. I wasn't aware of that research. But the forcing of CO2 and other GHG's is high enough that even if the Sun went into another Maunder Minimum the climate would continue to warm. On the Effect of a New Grand Minimum of Solar Activity on the Future Climate on Earth (Feulner & Rahmstorf 2010).

      I'd agree that in a laboratory, CO2 may be easier to study, but in real world effect, it is incredibly difficult to tease out its effect among all the other variables.

      Difficult is not the same thing as impossible. It's something that has been studied for over 100 years and especially since the 1950's. I think we know a thing or two about it. We can measure the radiative energy coming off the Earth's surface across a range of frequencies. We can measure how that changes as you get higher in the atmosphere. We can measure the composition of the atmosphere so we know what absorption characteristics we should expect. Sure it's c

    254. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      I suggest you reconsider your rather extreme and strange position.

      You didn't read the dictionary did you? Seasons are that change in climate which is attributed to tilt relative to orbit. ENSO is that change in climate which is attributed to El Nino. El Nino is not partly or mostly responsible for ENSO, it is solely responsible. Showing that some summers are cold does not change the fact that summers are attributed to tilt. Showing some short periods of cooling while CO2 rises does not show that the general upward trend cannot be attributed to CO2. This should be obvious.

      the hypothesis that makes the fewest new assumptions about climate variation is the one that assumes that observed variations are natural.

      This is the line of reasoning that led you to invoke the following hilarity: "it could very well be the motion of energy from the core of the earth towards the surface, and therefore the oceans, and therefore the air."

      That is a pretty peculiar new assumption! Why not attribute the warming to something that we know causes warming in the range that we are observing instead of attributing it to something that could not possibly do so? You may as well have said "it could very well be unicorns!"

      You have created a convoluted mess in your head in order to come to the conclusion that CO2 cannot affect temperature.

      On the contrary, I believe it can affect temperature, but I believe that it is a vanishingly small effect overwhelmed by other natural forces. Your strawman here fails to illustrate my position.

      Vanishingly small is not the same as zero, but the difference is vanishingly small. The point still stands. You have created a convoluted mess in your head in order to come to the conclusion that CO2 cannot have more than a vanishingly small effect on temperature. You would do better to let the conclusion follow from the facts rather than the other way around.

      You seem to believe that simply identifying a warming trend, over any given point in time, automatically means that I must accept that humans are the primary cause

      No, but I presume that you do. Otherwise you would not be so obstinate. Anyone who looks at the and can't admit the following is deluding themselves: 1) Temperatures are generally going up. 2) The reconstructions corroborate each other. 3) Since some of the reconstructions were made by skeptics hoping to find no or negative trend I do not need to invoke a conspiracy theory to avoid admitting #1 and #2.

      You are clearly unable to do this. Why?

    255. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      You didn't read the dictionary did you? Seasons are that change in climate which is attributed to tilt relative to orbit.

      You're again putting up a strawman that I don't propose. Your original quote was "Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun." The implication was that "summer temperatures *always* happen in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun". The counter indication was the 1816 Year Without Summer.

      Seasons are specific magnitudes of change in climate, at certain latitudes, due to the combination of the tilt of the planet, as well as the heat propagation properties of the earth's climate system, including atmospheric and oceanic, and the occasional large scale volcanic eruption as demonstrated in 1816.

      Argue against what I'm proposing, not your strawman.

      This is the line of reasoning that led you to invoke the following hilarity: "it could very well be the motion of energy from the core of the earth towards the surface, and therefore the oceans, and therefore the air."

      Why is that somehow hilarious? Do you really think the temperature of the earth's atmosphere would be the same if the actual ground, from crust to core, was a mild 72F?

      "When we compute the total amount of energy generated by 232Th, 238U, and 40K, we find that the total, global, energy production is 3.8x1013 Watts, or 38,000,000,000,000 Watts, or 38 trillion Watts! ...Although 38 trillion Watts is a lot of energy, when we spread it out over the entire surface of the Earth, the average global heat flow is only about 0.075 Watts/meter2."

      Now don't get me wrong, .075 watts/m^2 isn't a huge amount, but it is a real factor, and it could have dramatic variation from time to time (the internal core of the earth creates heat through fission, but that doesn't guarantee an even amount of radiation through to the crust at any single point in time). At the very least it is plausible, and not particularly hilarious.

      Why not attribute the warming to something that we know causes warming in the range that we are observing instead of attributing it to something that could not possibly do so?

      Because you have no idea that anthropogenic CO2 causes the warming in the range that we observe. You make assumption upon assumption of how a fractional part of CO2 in the atmosphere will affect positive feedbacks in the atmosphere, and hyper attribute warming, instead of actually looking for more understanding of the effect of CO2. The question is, why assume that the global climate system has a ridiculously large sensitivity to CO2, simply because we have not identified other natural mechanisms that could account for it?

      You have created a convoluted mess in your head in order to come to the conclusion that CO2 cannot have more than a vanishingly small effect on temperature.

      I refer you to the ice cores which show CO2 levels lagging, rather than leading temperature changes, as a reasonable line of evidence indicating that whatever vanishingly small effect of CO2 may exist, it is regularly overwhelmed in the historical record by temperature changes driven by natural factors, and we can continue to expect the same kind of behavior in the future. CO2 does not magically change its behavior in the 20th century.

      No, but I presume that you do.

      So let me understand clearly - you're willing to concede that an upwards march of temperature over a period of anywhere from 30-100 years, does not necessarily mean that its origin must be anthropogenic CO2, and does not necessarily mean that such an upward trend would cause harm to humanity or the biosphere?

    256. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You're again putting up a strawman that I don't propose. Your original quote was "Summer happens in the hemisphere tilted towards the Sun."

      Yes. That is the definition of summer. No matter how hot the winter, it will never become summer. To dispute this is ludicrous.

      Seasons are specific magnitudes of change in climate, at certain latitudes, due to the combination (of factors)

      You need to get a new dictionary. That is not even close.

      This is the line of reasoning that led you to invoke the following hilarity: "it could very well be the motion of energy from the core of the earth towards the surface, and therefore the oceans, and therefore the air."

      Why is that somehow hilarious? 075 watts/m^2 isn't a huge amount, but it is a real factor, and it could have dramatic variation from time to time. At the very least it is plausible,

      No, it's laughable And it perfectly illustrates why your understanding of Occam's razor is fatally flawed. Go ahead, Explain how 2 w/m^2 from CO2 is vanishingly insignificant but 0.075 is a likely driver of climate. Explain how this fluctuates over time to create warming and cooling trends. See how many scientific laws you have to break to make this feasible.

      Because you have no idea that anthropogenic CO2 causes the warming in the range that we observe

      Oh, I see. 2 w/m^2 is not sufficient but 0.075 possibly is. Interesting.

      The question is, why assume that the global climate system has a ridiculously large sensitivity to CO2

      Good question. One that I would have thought you would have asked before concluding that it doesn't. Strange. We know that the sensitivity (to all forcings) is large (but not ridiculously so- that's all you) because we can observe small forcings causing large changes throughout history. That's right. We measure it.

      CO2 does not magically change its behavior in the 20th century.

      It's not magic or unicorns silly, it's us. The change is that now we are releasing hundreds of thousands of tons of fossilized CO2. Before we were not. Previously CO2 was a feedback, and now it is both a driver and a feedback. I'm shocked that you concluded that CO2 could not be a primary driver of the current warming without knowing this basic fact. Your certitude is matched only by your ignorance. What a strange contradiction you are.

      So let me understand clearly - you're willing to concede that an upwards march of temperature over a period of anywhere from 30-100 years, does not necessarily mean that its origin must be anthropogenic CO2

      What a muddled understanding of climate science you have. Of course rising temperatures do not implicate the cause. Now, with this explained, are you willing to admit that any idiot who looks at the temperature reconstructions side by side could correctly conclude: 1) Temperatures are generally going up. 2) The reconstructions corroborate each other. 3) Since some of the reconstructions were made by skeptics hoping to find no or negative trend I do not need to invoke a conspiracy theory to avoid admitting #1 and #2.

      Well?

    257. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Yes. That is the definition of summer. No matter how hot the winter, it will never become summer. To dispute this is ludicrous.

      Well, with your definition expounded upon to mean nothing less than a tautology (rather than a discussion of specifically seasonal variations of a given magnitude), I wonder what you were trying to point out in the first place. The sensitivity of the climate to CO2 is *not* a tautology, in the way that "George Washington was named George Washington" is. Given your backpedaling, you were making a terribly poor argument when you said:

      "I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit. "

      What you now assert you really meant to say was:

      "I believe that the definition of the word season is the tilt of the earth's axis with respect to it's orbit."

      There was no "cause" in question at all, you were simply stating a definition.

      Go ahead, Explain how 2 w/m^2 from CO2 is vanishingly insignificant but 0.075 is a likely driver of climate.

      0.075 is simply an average without respect to actual temporal spatial differences. To think that 0.075, averaged say, over millennia, cannot make a difference if the actual effect comes in large spikes rather than an even flow, is to be willfully ignorant.

      Oh, I see. 2 w/m^2 is not sufficient but 0.075 possibly is.

      2 w/m^2 from CO2 is not variable in any great degree in space or time. Geothermal energy certainly is.

      We know that the sensitivity (to all forcings) is large (but not ridiculously so- that's all you) because we can observe small forcings causing large changes throughout history.

      That's a flat out lie. We know that sensitivity (to all forcings) is small, because we can observe negative feedback patterns that stop climate from irreversibly going to either super cold or super hot.

      On *top* of that, if sensitivity to *all* forcings was large, it still begs the question, what is the *relative* strength of CO2 to other forcings. You're talking yourself in a circle.

      The change is that now we are releasing hundreds of thousands of tons of fossilized CO2. Before we were not. Previously CO2 was a feedback, and now it is both a driver and a feedback.

      That's circular reasoning, and a special pleading. I'll assert to you that CO2 doesn't care *where* it came from before it has a physical effect on temperature. Whether or not it came from volcanic activity, or meteor impact, or even biological processes, it should not behave any differently than when it comes from a human burning coal for energy.

      Of course rising temperatures do not implicate the cause.

      Then what would?

    258. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      Yes. That is the definition of summer. No matter how hot the winter, it will never become summer. To dispute this is ludicrous.

      Well, with your definition...

      My definition? This is not MY definition. This is THE definition. Yes, I stated something that was true by definition. Yet even without understanding what season meant, you supposed that perhaps currents were largely responsible for them. When I pointed out that what I said was true by definition, you still argued against. You supposed that a really warm winter may actually be summer. The point was meant to be rhetorical. It was meant to show that your understanding of Occam's razor leads you down these rabbet holes. You ended up having to redefine season in order to justify your explanation.

      To think that 0.075, averaged say, over millennia, cannot make a difference if the actual effect comes in large spikes rather than an even flow, is to be willfully ignorant.

      Go on. I'm interested in which physical law you will need to disregard first in order to show that this could happen. My bet is on entropy.

      That's a flat out lie. We know that sensitivity (to all forcings) is small, because we can observe negative feedback patterns that stop climate from irreversibly going to either super cold or super hot.

      Eh no. We have seen very wild swings from glaciation to interglacial periods. We know that the gain is less than one due to the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law so there will never be a runaway warming or cooling.

      it still begs the question, what is the *relative* strength of CO2 to other forcings.

      Yes, another good question. Not one to which there is no answer. Certainly one that you should have asked before you decided that CO2 could not be responsible for the current warming.

      Previously CO2 was a feedback, and now it is both a driver and a feedback. That's circular reasoning, and a special pleading.

      It's basic physics and frankly should be obvious.

      I'll assert to you that CO2 doesn't care *where* it came from before it has a physical effect on temperature.

      Duh! But where it comes from does matter in terms of how it got there. Did it get there as a feedback to warming? Or did we put it there? How do you not know this most basic stuff and still have such a strong opinion? Is it possible that the less someone knows the more sure of themselves they become?

      Still not willing to look at a graph of rising temperatures and acknowledge that the temperatures are rising? Very strange indeed.

    259. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      My definition? This is not MY definition. This is THE definition. Yes, I stated something that was true by definition.

      No, you stated, "I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit."

      Your problem words here are "believe" and "caused" -> they have *nothing* to do with a tautological definition.

      The point was meant to be rhetorical. It was meant to show that your understanding of Occam's razor leads you down these rabbet holes.

      The rhetoric was flawed. Asserting that the precise statement of a tautological definition has *anything* to do with competing hypotheses as described by Occam's razor shows a great deal of misunderstanding on your part. You might have well said, "the State of California is called the State of California" - it would have been just as relevant to a rhetorical point regarding Occam's razor.

      Do you understand your error now? Are you *trying* to understand where you failed to express yourself in a clear and rational way?

      Go on. I'm interested in which physical law you will need to disregard first in order to show that this could happen.

      We don't have to disregard any physical laws. Just take for example Mt. St. Helens -> over the past ten millennia, you could measure all of its activity, and put an average daily energy level on it. If that energy was indeed released evenly over ten millennia, the overall output would be the same, but the effect on climate would be significantly different. As it stands, we know that the energy is *not* released evenly, but in large spikes many orders of magnitude above the average daily output we could calculate.

      We know that the gain is less than one due to the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law [wikipedia.org] so there will never be a runaway warming or cooling.

      I'm not sure how that follows. How does a blackbody model stop runaway warming or cooling, in the absence of significant negative feedbacks?

      Yes, another good question. Not one to which there is no answer.

      So, let's be clear - now you admit that we don't know the relative magnitude of CO2 forcing, even though you've been insisting that CO2 forcing is what explains 20th century warming. Can you make up your mind?

      It's basic physics and frankly should be obvious.

      Magically differing behavior of a gas in the atmosphere depending on the century is not basic physics at all. Here's basic physics - Take a sealed container of air and water, and observe the "greenhouse" effect of CO2 under a lamp which causes a temperature increase in the water. Posit that it is a feedback in this instance, which out gasses from the water as heat increases, slightly increasing the temperature of the water due to "back radiation", causing more out gassing until some sort of limit is reached. Now inject extra CO2 into that container. Explain how this extra CO2 is *any different* from the CO2 that was out gassed earlier.

      But where it comes from does matter in terms of how it got there.

      How it got there doesn't matter, it still behaves the same way.

    260. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Here's a great Occam's razor post that might help you understand your error:

      http://jeffreyellis.org/blog/?p=44

    261. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      IRT climate sensitivity on GHG:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/02/earth-itself-is-telling-us-there’s-nothing-to-worry-about-in-doubled-or-even-quadrupled-atmospheric-co2/

      "So there it is: every Watt per meter squared of additional GHG forcing, during the last 50 years, has increased the global average surface air temperature by 0.09 C.

      Spread the word: the Earth climate sensitivity is 0.090 C/W-m^-2."

      This is just about the same ballpark as the geothermal average values we were talking about earlier.

    262. Re:Climate Change Deniers by Layzej · · Score: 1

      You stated, "I believe that the seasons are caused because the earth's axis is tilted with respect to it's orbit."

      Your problem words here are "believe" and "caused" -> they have *nothing* to do with a tautological definition.

      I believe that is the cause because it's bleeding obvious, and so well accepted that it is part of the definition of seasons.

      The rhetoric was flawed.

      On the contrary! By defending the straw man you adopted it's position!

      You can't help a crazy man see how crazy he is, but by letting him talk you can show everyone else. And boy did HSThompson69 talk! He believes that seasons are probably primarily caused by ocean and atmospheric currents. This is where his understanding of Occam's razor leads him. He doesn't consider that he now has to explain why the currents should always push the heat towards the sunny side of the earth. Perhaps heat is attracted to the sun? Or maybe he was just listing all of the factors that contribute to temperature at any given time... Although I'm not sure what that has to do with the seasons. And surely he would have listed his other pet theory regarding heat bursts from the Earth's core. And he would have also listed CO2 and ENSO and he most certainly would have listed other stuff that we just don't even know about. Then when asked how much the Earth's tilt contributes to the seasons he would have been able to conclude "Why, we just can't tell! There are too many confounding factors! Plus factors that we don't even know we don't know!".

      Luckily it will be obvious to the average grade schooler reading this that the true answer is "All of it" - because the average grade schooler knows what the word seasons means.

      You might have well said, "the State of California is called the State of California"

      I know! And then to complete the analogy, you would have said "Well, we can't be certain. It was once the province of California and the borders have changed over time, and/and/and" Priceless!

      We don't have to disregard any physical laws. Just take for example Mt. St. Helens -> over the past ten millennia, you could measure all of its activity, and put an average daily energy level on it.

      You are getting closer! Keep going! To steer you in the right direction: Would we notice the equivalent of 56,000 nuclear bombs/hour leaking from Mt. St. Helens? What would cause it to leak out now in the last 100 years? Do the answers to each of these questions raise 10 more? Will the answers to each of those raise 10 more? Keep following your "logic" until you have found a reason to doubt at least 10 laws of physics. This will be fun!

      We know that the gain is less than one due to the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law [wikipedia.org] so there will never be a runaway warming or cooling.

      I'm not sure how that follows.

      As the temperature of a black body increases, the emission of infrared radiation back into space increases with the fourth power of its absolute temperature. This keeps the gain under 1. How can you conclude that CO2 is not the primary driver of the current warming without knowing the basics of climate science? Ignorance and arrogance seem to make great partners.

      Yes, another good question. Not one to which there is no answer.

      So, let's be clear - now you admit that we don't know the relative magnitude of CO2 forcing

      Oh dear. I've confused you with a double negative. When someone says "not without" it means "with", not "really without". The "not" negates the "without" rather than enforcing it.

      Magically differing behavior of a gas in the atmosphere depending on the century is not basi

    263. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      I believe that is the cause because it's bleeding obvious, and so well accepted that it is part of the definition of seasons.

      Again, your rhetoric failed. You were trying to compare a tautological definition to competing hypotheses with Occam's razor. The fact that you didn't express yourself well isn't my fault.

      I know! And then to complete the analogy, you would have said "Well, we can't be certain. It was once the province of California and the borders have changed over time, and/and/and" Priceless!

      Again, your comprehension here is lacking. I did not take your poorly phrased statement as a simple assertion of a tautological definition (since that was incongruous with the idea of comparing it to competing hypotheses, and I assumed that you *meant* what you said). To interpret my response to the poorly worded statement you made as if I understood that you were talking about a tautological definition is a mistake.

      Would we notice the equivalent of 56,000 nuclear bombs/hour leaking from Mt. St. Helens?

      You're drunk now, aren't you? :) I simply asserted that the back of the napkin equation regarding the energy coming from fission internal to the earth could affect climate by having a spatial temporal distribution other than perfectly even everywhere. How you get to 56,000 nuclear bombs an hour is a testament to whatever hallucinogen you're currently ingesting :)

      As the temperature of a black body increases, the emission of infrared radiation back into space increases with the fourth power of its absolute temperature. This keeps the gain under 1.

      You're still not making sense. You want to assert that the climate of the earth cannot have runaway cooling or warming because...you think it acts like a blackbody? Isn't the whole GHG argument that the earth does *not* behave the way we would calculate a perfect blackbody would act?

      How can you conclude that CO2 is not the primary driver of the current warming without knowing the basics of climate science?

      I do know the basics (and quite a few of the advanced features) of climate science, which is why I conclude that CO2 is not the primary driver of any warming in history. You seem to be missing some very basic understandings though.

      Oh dear. I've confused you with a double negative.

      I understand - you're not very good at being clear...let me restate for you:

      "it still begs the question, what is the *relative* strength of CO2 to other forcings?"

      "Yes, another good question. One to which there is a clear answer."

      Okay, what is the clear answer? How, for example, do you compare the relative strength of CO2 to the specifics of cloud formation? Here are a few more thorough indications that the answer you believe is not the truth:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/02/earth-itself-is-telling-us-there’s-nothing-to-worry-about-in-doubled-or-even-quadrupled-atmospheric-co2/

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/satellite-and-climate-model-evidence/

      If the CO2 is released as a result of warming then it's a feedback. If it is released as the result of burning fossil fuels then it is not a feedback. Duh!

      Again, you're making a special pleading that the *source* of CO2 will somehow determine its effect. This is clearly false. A molecule of CO2 does not know or care about its origin before it decides to absorb or radiate energy.

    264. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      More useful literature on CO2 climate forcing: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.0581.pdf

    265. Re:Climate Change Deniers by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Another conundrum for the CO2 is responsible for all theory:

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/21/co2-does-not-drive-glacial-cycles/

      "Consider the earth 14,000 years ago. CO2 levels were around 200 ppm and temperatures, at 6C below present values, were rising fast. Now consider 30,000 years ago. CO2 levels were also around 200 ppm and temperatures were also about 6C below current levels, yet at that time the earth was cooling. Exactly the same CO2 and temperature levels as 14,000 years ago, but the opposite direction of temperature change. CO2 was not the driver."

      CO2 at 200ppm behaves the same way as CO2 at 200ppm. It does not care whether or not the jump from 180-200ppm came from a volcano, outgassing from oceans, or through forest fires. Asserting that it does is a special pleading that requires ad hoc additions and assumptions to explain past climactic variation.

  2. Too little too late by Palmsie · · Score: 1, Funny

    Haven't you heard? The end is tomorrow.

    --
    Carl Sagan quotes get you an automatic +5 on all posts.
    1. Re:Too little too late by mr1911 · · Score: 5, Funny

      No, but I'll be sure to read all about it on Sunday.

      --
      This post comes with a double-your-money-back guarantee!
      Any offense taken to this post is at your sole discretion.
    2. Re:Too little too late by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, but I'll be sure to read all about it on Sunday.

      That's how seriously you're taking it, hmm? I'll do you one better. Tomorrow, on the day of this "apocalypse" / "rapture", I'll be flying cross-country.

      Through Texas, to boot.

    3. Re:Too little too late by 680x0 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Hope your plane doesn't crash from all those flying Christians getting sucked into the jet engines.

    4. Re:Too little too late by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      *golf clap*

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    5. Re:Too little too late by anyGould · · Score: 1

      Just remember folks - the Rapture *will* happen Saturday. So any bible-thumpers who are still standing on Sunday have obviously been deemed unworthy.

    6. Re:Too little too late by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Only if the also predicted earthquake and the subsequent opening of the graves happens, too. They hedged against your theory. Hmm, wait... nutcase predicts opening of the graves on saturday AND the CDC publishes a zombie survival guide?? Excuse me, I am off to clean my shotgun again.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
  3. CFC banning is good for ozone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    But the only solution they have for global warming is world government and regulating wealthy nations. This raises the cost of living and such which has indirect effects to global warming too, so it doesn't seem like a good situation. Poverty is a huge cause of environmental problems, and the more you raise the cost of living, the more people go into poverty. Also, a major point: Which would you rather have: A bigger and world government doing its governmental best to regulate something as nebulous as global warming, or our regular old crappy governments with less power doing nothing. I know a lot of people hate giving the government extra power as abuse of this power is the rule not the exception.

    1. Re:CFC banning is good for ozone by TeethWhitener · · Score: 1, Funny
      You're totally right; we should ban carbon dioxide. But if you're waiting for the government to effectively regulate that, I just have one thing to say:

      *puts on sunglasses*

      Don't hold your breath.

      YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Re:CFC banning is good for ozone by econolog · · Score: 1

      >the more you raise the cost of living, the more people go into poverty. This is incorrect. If you look today at just the quantity, there are more people living below the poverty line than 20 years ago but as a percentage it is much smaller. Generally the standards of living increase, even for the poorest. For example millions of more people have access to cleaner drinking water than they did a short time ago.

    3. Re:CFC banning is good for ozone by marnues · · Score: 1

      No, abuse of governmental power is the exception in our nation. The problem is one of perspective and that any abuse is a very terrible thing. Check African nations if you want to see countries where abuse is the rule. Also, don't confuse government powers that are disagreeable with abuse of power. The Department of Homeland Security, although the number 1 contender for my list of most corrupt agencies, is not itself governmental abuse. Warrentless phone tapping is, but that's ultimately a tiny part of what our government or the DoHS actually does.

    4. Re:CFC banning is good for ozone by bunratty · · Score: 3, Informative

      I haven't seen anyone propose "world government" for the solution to global warming. The solution put forward has been for countries to agree to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Reducing carbon dioxide emissions will increase costs, but effects of global warming will increase costs, too. The debate is what amount of spending on reducing carbon dioxide emissions will minimize total costs.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    5. Re:CFC banning is good for ozone by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      The future's so bright!

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
  4. Cool.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Now maybe we can start using CFCs again, and stop with these inferior coolants.

  5. signs of atmostfear damaged infatdead by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    evidenced by the fake clouds/'weather'. time to get real, or suffocate not trying. disarming might make a big difference

  6. can someone please explain a couple holes I see by ChipMonk · · Score: 0

    In the theory, that is, not the ozone layer...

    1. CFC's are much denser than air. The lightest possible CFC, which would be CH2FCl, would have an atomic weight around 62, much heavier than N2 at 28. How can something that wants to stay so close to the ground, even in the presence of normal Brownian motion, affect something so high up?

    2. Ozone is also denser than air, by roughly 50%. Isn't it being produced up there by ionizing resulting from absorbing UV rays? Thus, ozone is the evidence, not an ingredient, of ultraviolet blocking?

    I'm very interested in a summary explaining why my junior high chemistry and physics are wrong in this case.

    1. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by TheCouchPotatoFamine · · Score: 1

      I haven't read and cant give specific evidence... but neither can you. That should have told you to go do some research and make an informative post, but instead, you've decided to maintain your ignorance and maintain ours to boot.

      Oh wait, ten seconds on google and you could have seen: http://www.ozonelayer.noaa.gov/science/basics.htm

      Go read it!

      --
      CS majors know the time/space tradeoff, but they never get taught the 3rd, crucial, tradeoff of the set: comprehension!
    2. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 4, Informative

      In a nutshell, because the thermal, i.e. kinetic energy of atmospheric molecules is way too high to get separation by weight. They are moving in random directions too fast to settle down. As for the ozone layer being where it is, yes, it is being produced up there. The layer is a dynamic process - ozone being produced from oxygen by UV activation and reacting back. You get the layer at a certain height where you have the right balance of O2 concentration and UV intensity. CFCs are a catalyst that shift that equilibrium to the side of oxygen, removing the conditions that lead to the dynamic formation of the layer in the first place.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    3. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by marnues · · Score: 1

      Alright, two informative posts, way to go science!

    4. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by rahvin112 · · Score: 1

      As someone else said the atmosphere isn't stationary long enough for the constituent elements to separate into layers by weight. It's like asking why sediment in moving water doesn't settle out immediately.

      Also consider this, Ozone is also a product of combustion products (smog) being mixed with high temperatures air (summer). Ozone is actually a pollutant monitored by the clean air act that LA frequently violates in the summer. So why doesn't all that ozone float up and fill the hole in? Because if it's not exactly the right environment the ozone is destroyed, it's a very unstable molecule of oxygen. It's the reason the R-12 refrigerant could get up there and catalyze O3 back to O2 for 20 some odd years before the R-12 molecule was destroyed. Ozone is easily destroyed, it's also highly toxic (one reason they use it in water purification where taste is important enough to justify the cost).

    5. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      I doubt that your hypothesis of mere thermal energy preventing separation by weight is correct. It's likely that an isolated column of air would separate by weight. As long is there isn't macroscopic circulation to stir the air (wind, jet stream, etc.), there can be stratification by temperature such that freezing occurs in a valley but not half way up an adjacent hill. There have been cases of people dying by asphyxiation when a volcanic vent produced a lot of CO2, which settled down to a nearby lake, driving up the oxygen away from the ground. People near the lake were SOL due to separation of atmospheric gasses by density.

      Buy some dry ice and dump it into a tub of water, and watch where the (denser) fog goes.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    6. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      Depends on the molecular species in question - e.g. hydrogen will reach escape velocity just from the thermal velocity distribution. You are completely right that I neglected convective mixing in the post above, which of course is a strong effect. If you release a lot of heavy gas at once, yes, you get layering. But even that might diffuse out given the long timescales which you need to take into account when talking about the atmosphere as whole. I just wanted to give the nutshell presentation. It's nearly 2 am here, I am drunk and will be raptured in 4 hours, so bear with me ;)

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    7. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by Layzej · · Score: 1

      1. CFC's are much denser than air. The lightest possible CFC, which would be CH2FCl, would have an atomic weight around 62, much heavier than N2 at 28. How can something that wants to stay so close to the ground, even in the presence of normal Brownian motion, affect something so high up?

      It is likely for the same reason that short people don't suffocate despite the fact that C02 has a molecular weight of 42 g/mol while oxygen weighs in at only 15.

    8. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by Kilrah_il · · Score: 1

      If you are so helpful, I will ask about something that has bothered me for a while:
      Most of the CFC was produced in the northern hemisphere. Assuming the weather systems of both hemispheres are pretty much separated, why is it that there is a much bigger ozone hole over the southern pole than over the northern pole? I would assume the reverse would be true.

      To all the anti-deniers: I don't doubt the fact that CFC caused the ozone hole. It is just that this is a small issue I would like to understand more clearly. If you can't give me a straight answer w/o using curse words, I would ask you to refrain from answering. Thanks!

      --
      Whenever in an argument, remember this.
    9. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      The difference between the North Polar region and the South Polar region is that the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land and covered by ice and Antarctica is land surrounded by ocean with ice sheets built up on it. It's considerably colder in Antarctica. The two regions are not really very comparable when you get into details. The Wikipedia article on ozone depletion has an explanation about the cause of the ozone hole. The northern hemisphere atmosphere and southern hemisphere atmosphere are somewhat separated but not completely which only affects how long it takes for full mixing to occur.

    10. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Pedantically speaking it's not the R-12 (or other CFC's) that cause the ozone to break down. What happens is UV radiation breaks down the R-12 freeing the chlorine atoms which catalyzes the breakdown of ozone.

    11. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 2

      That's where it gets somewhat complicated. While I have a pretty good grasp of the chemistry involved, I am a dilettante when it comes to atmospheric dynamics on the large scale. The stratospheric conditions over Antarctica seem to be particularly good for activating chlorine compounds into the catalytically active ClO-radicals. Cooling of the air in winter leads to sinking of the air masses which then, via the coriolis effect, form a very stable vortex that lasts into summer. This polar vortex isolates the antarctic stratosphere. Polar stratospheric clouds form and are confined to the antarctic region by the dynamics of this vortex. The particles in these clouds, water ice and nitric acid, help with the formation of active chlorine compounds. Due to confinement by the vortex, these compounds get not diluted out and lead to strong ozone depletion as soon as the sun comes up again. Over the arctic, this confinement effect is lower, so the clouds get "diluted out" - they only can form in the extreme cold, so less active chlorine is formed and the arctic effect is weaker. That's it in a nutshell.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    12. Re:can someone please explain a couple holes I see by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      Thermal energy is enough to change the equilibrium of the gases into one where they are mixed. But out of equilibrium (most importantly when there is any temperature gradient), things are way more complex.

      Also, you can separate gases in a series of tubes just by their weight difference, it is just way more complex than separating liquids or solids, because they'll mix a lot more.

  7. Re:Omg by tibit · · Score: 2

    You're absolutely right, AC. We will. The only question is: why.

    --
    A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
  8. cutting plutonious humvehicle chord might help by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    disabling the out of control greed based weapons peddlers among US would definitely help.

  9. nice to hear some good news for once by bl8n8r · · Score: 1

    too bad tomorrow is the end.

    --
    boycott slashdot February 10th - 17th check out: altSlashdot.org
    1. Re:nice to hear some good news for once by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tomorrow in Australia or tomorrow in America?

    2. Re:nice to hear some good news for once by geekoid · · Score: 1

      According to the people who believe this crap, its at 6pm...in every timezone. so basically it will be a rolling event.

      Once again. the end of the world has been brought to you by stupid people, whose own deity is so stupid, it doesn't understand timezones.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:nice to hear some good news for once by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, this is not good news. The greens tell us we are bad people, and this news--- that we took corrective action and it worked--- would demonstrate good attributes. That is not permitted. Anything that does not support the theory that we are bad, bad, BAD people is not acceptable.

    4. Re:nice to hear some good news for once by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      All I want to know is when the ISS crew is getting raptured, assuming there is one Real True Christian(TM) on board... I read a New Yorker interview with that nutcase Camping. Why oh why don't they ask the really interesting question like that in their interviews??

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
  10. Tomorrow? TOMORROW?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Oh gods, I am going to @$&*! die a @#% virgin!

  11. Please apply the scientific method... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just get a few dozen earths, divide them into control and experiment groups. We'll prove this hypothesis once and for all!!!

    Oh, wait... that's right, you CAN'T, can you?

    Hurry indoor children, the sky is falling.

  12. 22 years of banning CFC by nurb432 · · Score: 0

    So PROVE this is what has brought it back and that it wasn't just a natural cycle of the earth. The earth is a hell of a lot bigger than us, and will do what it wants regardless if we are around to predict it or not.

    Without hard proof Its all theory, and statistics, which ALWAYS lie..

    --
    ---- Booth was a patriot ----
    1. Re:22 years of banning CFC by marnues · · Score: 1

      Your desired level of proof is absurd. Your test is not falsifiable.

      Also, stats are unable to lie or tell the truth. They are data, nothing more, but also nothing less. It is we humans who accept 1 interpretation of the data that are at fault.

    2. Re:22 years of banning CFC by nurb432 · · Score: 0

      Since no proof will be offered, i reject the conclusion and the banning only served to line the pockets of those that purchased the legislation.

      Once again, the little guy gets screwed.

      --
      ---- Booth was a patriot ----
    3. Re:22 years of banning CFC by geekoid · · Score: 2

      Fucking troll.

      Mechanizes, evidence and prediction. They all came true. This is exactly what was predicted.

      It was CFC, and I am sick and tired of you poor excuses for a limp wristed cum stains not even bothering to look at the research and data, yes still thinking your opinion on the matter deserves equal weight in the matter. You're opinion deserves no weight on this matter, and it is provable wrong.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    4. Re:22 years of banning CFC by rahvin112 · · Score: 1

      The little guy in this case being the multinational conglomerates that produced it and lobbied their asses off to prevent the banning. You are an idiot. The evidence and proof of CFC's destroying the ozone layer is in the science journals. It involves thousands of research projects including sampling the layer (including the CFC's in it) to year on year measurements to the simple chemical reaction formula that shows it's possible. It was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt to the entire community of scientists involved in the discipline.

      If you can't be bothered to read the journals yourself, nor trust the expects then why don't you go live in a cave somewhere and spend your time trying to figure out how Apollo carries the torch across the sky without burning his hands. Because that's how fucking ignorant you are, flat earth, gods throwing lighting bolts kind of stupid.

    5. Re:22 years of banning CFC by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 1

      He's not even desiring a level of proof, he finishes the discussion with a good old argument from incredulity. Which is the weakest of all fallacies.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    6. Re:22 years of banning CFC by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      I tried to read your post, but your grammar and spelling made in unintelligible.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    7. Re:22 years of banning CFC by bonch · · Score: 0

      This is the emotional anger that dominates environmentalism today. Facts and reasoning are not what drives the viewpoint--it's name-calling and a need to feel superior.

    8. Re:22 years of banning CFC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mechanizes, evidence and prediction. They all came true. This is exactly what was predicted.

      Like how global cooling was predicted? What about the super-active hurricane season that gets predicted every year but doesn't occur? Climate alarmists will never acknowledge the opposing evidence because their position is political rather than scientific.

    9. Re:22 years of banning CFC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Always? As in, say, 100% of the time?

    10. Re:22 years of banning CFC by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seeing as how you haven't done the same for global warming, and from your post I am led to believe you think its true, whats that make you? Phil Jones, the TOP climate researcher, fessed up that with 20 years of manipulating climate data he was unable to prove global warming in the least. He admitted to ignoring FOIs because if he provided the requested information it would have shown publicly his unscientific manipulation of the data to attempt to reach the conclusion he thought it should end up as.

      But you didn't know that, or you wouldn't have said what you did. So as much as you are complaining about someone else not "believing experts" you haven't even READ what the experts you believe in have even said, much less opposing viewpoints. You are the worst kind of ignorant there is.

    11. Re:22 years of banning CFC by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was the 3rd most active on record and I heard on the new today that they're predicting another active one this year.

    12. Re:22 years of banning CFC by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I'd love to see you provide cites to Phil Jones saying any of the things you attribute to him. You can't find them.

  13. Re:Climate alarmists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2011/05/18/ozone-hole-gone/

    Maybe not.
    The natural cycle of the ozone extent may have just shifted to the increasing phase of the cycle.

    Maybe, like "global warming" it was just a power grab for commercial reasons.
    We have no long term data on the ozone hole, it could have been waxing and waning for millennia.

    The purported physics and chemistry of CFCs may have seemed plausible (like the idea that CO2 traps heat), but they real system may be too complex for such simple models. C02 doubling increases temperatures only a degree or so, and any scare scenarios are based on controversial and unproven feed back mechanisms. Some of which may be negative according to some recent research.

  14. Some curious coincidences by Eukariote · · Score: 0
    As noted by physicist Denis G. Rancourt in his article some big lies of science, there are some curious coincidences surrounding the ozone hole tale:

    The 1987 Montreal Protocol banning chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) is considered a textbook case where science and responsible governance lead to a landmark treaty for the benefit of the Earth and all its inhabitants. How often does that happen?

    At about the time that the DuPont patent on Freon(TM), the most widely used CFC refrigerant in the world, was expiring the mainstream media picked up on otherwise arcane scientific observations and hypotheses about ozone concentration in the upper atmosphere near the poles.

    There resulted an international mobilization to criminalize CFCs and DuPont developed and patented a replacement refrigerant that was promptly certified for use.

    A Nobel Prize in chemistry was awarded in 1995 for a laboratory demonstration that CFCs could deplete ozone in simulated atmospheric conditions. In 2007 it was shown that the latter work may have been seriously flawed by overestimating the depletion rate by an order of magnitude, thereby invalidating the proposed mechanism for CFC-driven ozone depletion [3]. Not to mention that any laboratory experiment is somewhat different from the actual upper atmosphere. Is the Nobel tainted by media and special interest lobbying?

    [3] Nature 449, 382-383 (2007).

    1. Re:Some curious coincidences by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Nice crackpot you found there. My favourite - his acid rain piece. "Decades of monitoring to detect an effect". Right. Tell that to the deforested mountain ridges in my home county that have recovered just fine after SO2 was essentially removed from coal plant exhaust. As for that nature reference - you conveniently omit that this is not a paper, but a news blurb. Serious papers on the issue? Well, rather thin in that department. I met Paul Crutzen on several occasions and had some nice talks with him. Calling him a tool of special interest lobbying is quite... off the mark.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    2. Re:Some curious coincidences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What has SO2 and trees to do with the subject in question?

      Oh, right. Nothing.

      “This must have far-reaching consequences,” Rex says. “If the measurements are correct we can basically no longer say we understand how ozone holes come into being.”

      http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070924/full/449382a.html

      (See end of the article for the scholarly references)

    3. Re:Some curious coincidences by Mindcontrolled · · Score: 3, Interesting

      SO2 is insofar part of the subject in question as the crackpot mentioned above rants about acid rain not existing in the quoted blog. As for the references. Yes, ClOOCl photolysis under stratospheric conditions modelled in the lab is by a factor 6 lower than previously predicted. So? To quote the abstract of the paper in question: "This large discrepancy calls into question the completeness of present atmospheric models of polar ozone depletion" - true that. At no point, the basic mechanism is questioned, though. To quote the part of Rex' quote you conveniently omitted: "Overwhelming evidence still suggests that anthropogenic emissions of CFCs and halons are the reason for the ozone loss.". In summary - you and the crackpot above take part of the usual scientific process, which is characterized by continuous refinement of models, out of context and construct a fundamental disagreement from it, which never existed in the first place. Basic propaganda tool.

      --
      Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
    4. Re:Some curious coincidences by ChrisMaple · · Score: 2

      The SO2 and trees are relevant because they are another article by the same person. While it is possible for some truth to be found in a forest of lies, it's not a good place to go looking for it.

      That said, there were a lot of errors made by those who proclaimed that acid rain was a serious problem. In addition, there was plenty of reason to reduce sulphur emissions beyond the fact that SO2 forms suphurous acid: SO2 is a poison by itself, as is H2S in sufficient concentration.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  15. Re:Omg by Jesus_666 · · Score: 2

    Because our bodies cease to function if certain requirements are not met. The more interesting questions are: How? And when?

    --
    USE HOT GRITS WITH STATUE OF NATALIE PORTMAN (NAKED AND PETRIFIED)
  16. From what I understand DOW chemical patent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    was on the original CFC propellant. It was about to expire & suddenly, the outcry of "it blows away the ozone layer" started. Funny how DOW chemical also had the patent on the "next-gen propellant" too, eh? They also don't mention that the size of the ozone layer depends on the position & tilt of the earth towards the sun while in orbit as well, so, depending on where you measure it and what time of year it is, it changes as well (which also, of course, NEVER gets noted in the research of "climate change experts" either, who are ALL bought & paid for lobbyists of a sort). The same shit goes for global warming: We don't have enough historical data to NOT know it's not just part of a normal "seasonal change" (which may be eons/epochs long in duration between cycles) of the planet itself. Consider these things people, & realize that MILLIONS to BILLIONS of dollars in grants for R&D are on the line here as well, & who lives off of those? Scientists & Educators largely. It's ALWAYS ABOUT THE "BENJAMINS" PEOPLE, always. So follow the money, & you see the constant scams & selling the easiest thing there is: FEAR (ask any life insurance salesman about that).

    1. Re:From what I understand DOW chemical patent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Funny how DOW chemical also had the patent on the "next-gen propellant" too, eh?

      As it turns out, I have some inside information about this. My father was an organic chemist working as the director of Dow Chemical's halogen research lab at the time that the depletion of the ozone layer by CFCs was being hyped. Dow did an extensive internal study and concluded that there was no validity to the claim that CFCs were harming the ozone. I don't know if DOW supported the banning of CFCs or not. Certainly, if it did, it wouldn't be the only time that a corporation used an environmental scare in a crony-capitalist ploy to sell their product, just look at GE and CFLs.

      Is it really possible that environmentalists don't understand that corporations like government interference in the marketplace if they can use the interference to block competitors or force consumers to buy their product? Politicians cooperate because it increases their power and influence and can provide a lobbying career opportunity when they leave office.

  17. Numbers please! by mangu · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Global warming is caused by the emission of gases, mostly CO2, but also CFC replacements that are 1000s of times more potent than CO2.

    Fixed that for ya. Apparently Nature doesn't provide free lunches :(

    No, you fixed nothing, you just failed to take into account numbers.

    CO2 isn't harmful just because it's a global warming gas. It's so harmful because it's emitted in several orders of magnitude more than other gases.

    Another gas may be 1000 times more potent, but if only a billionth as much as CO2 is being emitted, then so what?

    1. Re:Numbers please! by Layzej · · Score: 2

      Another consideration is the half life of the gas. For instance methane is quite a bit more potent as a GHG than CO2, but the half life is 7 years compared to about a century for CO2.

    2. Re:Numbers please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Keep in mind the logarithmic nature of the effect of CO2 on temperature. That magnitude of difference is of little significance to logx.

    3. Re:Numbers please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Point of order: I used to work with a heavy gas, SF6. It used to be cheap(ish). It is now extremely expensive. Why the price increase? Well, because it's one of the worst greenhouse gases you can emit, and it is now more tightly regulated and is getting expensive. My counterpoint always was (besides the nice point you just made of it being emitted in scales billions of time less than CO2) the question of how exactly large amounts of this extremely heavy gas were going to make it to and stay in the upper atmosphere? Maybe I'm naive and someone can explain it, but when we seeded the gas with smoke a couple of times and let it flow, it always just hung out on the floor and went down the drains. Might a few molecules from every batch be convected all the way up where they can do some damage? Sure, I guess. But not a large percentage of an already trace gas. Really? A serious greenhouse gas? Whatever.

    4. Re:Numbers please! by tibit · · Score: 1

      I agree, but my point wasn't that CFC replacement contribution was even measurable. The "1000s of times" came from lab tests, not from experiments in atmosphere, I hope that's obvious enough. All I meant is that there's no silver bullet, no free lunch. Everything we use has some drawbacks. Everyone got so worked up and my point just whoooooshed far above. Sigh.

      --
      A successful API design takes a mixture of software design and pedagogy.
    5. Re:Numbers please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Another gas may be 1000 times more potent, but if only a billionth as much as CO2 is being emitted, then so what?

      Other gases absorb different wavelengths of light to CO2, so may have more effect than the potency measure indicates.

  18. Funny... by publiclurker · · Score: 1

    your willingness to whore for the deniers shows you to be devoid of any shame. Care to try another excuse to avoid accepting responsibility?

    1. Re:Funny... by Mashiki · · Score: 1

      Accepting responsibility requires that there be an honest and equal debate on an issue. No such debate has happened, rather everyone is being told that "this is the way it is" and questioning the dogma is anathema. Because some central planner knows best. Not only that, but anyone who disagrees is automatically in the pay of *insert evil company here*.

      --
      Om, nomnomnom...
    2. Re:Funny... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      There has been plenty of debate over the years in scientific circles over climate science and the current consensus is the result of that debate. I'm not sure what non-scientists in general could constructively add to it. Now if you're talking about the debate over what we should do about global warming then that's a political issue that everyone is welcome to but to have that debate the denier side first has to admit that there is a problem that needs addressing. There's no point in trying to debate someone who won't admit the problem in the first place.

  19. too bad for you by publiclurker · · Score: 1

    that your opinions are of no concern to the adults around here.

    1. Re:too bad for you by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Switch sides. You are an adamant and effective climate change denier.

  20. It just moved... to the Arctic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  21. they must be trying to gainsupport for something by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ozone is created by the sun, the Arctic ozone layer gets smaller during the winter because there is no sun to cause the chemical reaction. Unfortunately nobody ever calls them on this minor fact. CFCs has zero impact on the ozone.

  22. Now if we can just stop widespread use of H2 by pr0f3550r · · Score: 1

    CFCs effects on ozone are well documented. But the potential widespread use of H2 as an alternative 'clean' energy is not often associated with its effects on O3. Hydrogen is quite reactive with O3 and can cause severe problem by causing excessive cooling in the upper atmosphere. Lest we forget that the ozone hole over Antarctica is partially due to extreme cold in the upper atmosphere.

    1. Re:Now if we can just stop widespread use of H2 by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      h2 will react ONCE and it is done. CFCs are a catalyst. It will continue to break down O3 over its LONG lifetime.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  23. Aww... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I was starting to enjoy the milder winters. =(

  24. Mt Erebus? by freefrag · · Score: 1

    One thing that I never got was how an volcano in Antartica actively emitting hydrogen chlorine cannot contribute to stratospheric chlorine. Anywhere else, HCl would just stick to a water droplet and rain down, but we are talking about the most arid continent on earth, with very little precipitation.

  25. Hold on a second by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Umm, how exactly is O3 being created again? I musta missed that part of the lesson.

    1. Re:Hold on a second by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      O3 in the stratosphere in the ozone layer is created mostly by UV radiation causing an O2 molecule to split into 2 free oxygen atoms which then each link up with another O2 molecule to form O3.

  26. Fly across the US sometime. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Look out your window. Notice the complete devastation of pristine land. Hours upon hours of farm after fucking farm, as far as the eye can see.

    I'm not saying farming is bad; I am quite in favor of growing food. But to say man cannot affect the earth; that the earth will 'do what it wants'; is asinine.

  27. Convenient by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    !. Environmental alarmists scream about the alleged dangers of CFC until Congress passes laws banning CFCs.
    2. The ozone layer, waxing and waning in its normal, natural way, completely unrelated to the activities of man, experiences an increase.
    3. Environmentalists start yelling, "See! See! The laws we demanded are saving the planet! You must always do what we say because we are so credible and important! (Also, we are doing such great and important work. Why not send us some money?)"

    The amount of CFCs manufactured, not merely released into the atmosphere when CFC production was at its peak, was dwarfed by the natural production of CFCs. It wasn't even close. The quantity of CFCs manufactured didn't even show up in the noise of the natural production.

    Intense equatorial sunlight provides the activation energy needed to create CFCs from the vast quantities of kelp and decaying sea life in the gigantic expanses of the pacific ocean. Chlorine and fluorine, of course, is provided by the sea water and the carbon comes from the kelp and dead krill and algae.

    The whole "CFCs are creating ozone holes" scare is a crock of shit. So is giving credit to a reduction in the size of ozone holes to legislation banning the use of CFCs. Man has not even had the capability of measuring ozone holes long enough to make any substantial statements about their causes or the consequences of their expansion or contraction.

  28. Oh, well that's rich. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    For almost a decade, Ozone projections have been famous for being completely wrong, and the ozone levels being completely unrelated to the supposed mechanism and emissions. I'm glad they finally got something to match, but we'll have to see in the coming years if it has any predictive power.

    I can't say I'm surprised with them publicizing they finally saw an increase in ozone layers, seeing as how awkward the data had been up to this point.

  29. Chlorine from the sea by Kim0 · · Score: 1

    The chlorine from CFCs are supposedly effective at destroying the ozone layer.
    But what about the humongous amount of chlorine from salt in the seawater,
    that gets into the atmosphere from wave froth? I would think that was much
    more.

    1. Re:Chlorine from the sea by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      "But what about the humongous amount of chlorine from salt in the seawater,
      that gets into the atmosphere from wave froth?"

      What?! How would you expect to get free chlorine at the (upper levels of) atmosphere from salt?

  30. Re:bare ass farts by riverat1 · · Score: 1

    Don't forget the sunscreen. I sure as hell wouldn't want to get a sunburn there.

  31. flat eyelet pinion by Mana+Mana · · Score: 1

    Come on you knee-jerk nigas, say it witme, correlationisnotcausation, What! Am I's suddenly wrong! Lighten up.

  32. Rad by bedouin · · Score: 1

    Awesome, does this mean I can start using aerosol hair spray again?

    1. Re:Rad by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      You can get it from China, TODAY.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    2. Re:Rad by bedouin · · Score: 1

      OMG!!!

    3. Re:Rad by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      Yep, I'd recommend you get one of the CO2 aerosols, that are quite cheaper, as effective and commonly sold today.

  33. CFC's are STILL produced esp. in China by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    We need to get China and India to stop this. China a LONG history of not caring about the environment. The issue is that they will continue this because it is profitable to them. Even now, it is growing 15% a year, which is INSANE.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  34. Ozone man vindicated by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Some of you might recall Candidate Bush calling Al Gore "Ozone Man" for his stance on this. So much for the foolish mockery. Who's looking like the fool now?

  35. Ozone and Global Warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Repairing the ozone layer is increasing global warming. Ozone is a greenhouse gas, and a global layer of ozone will have warming effects. The question is, can we reduce the other greenhouse gasses to the point where the ozone layer can exist without being an issue?