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World Internet Traffic To Top 966 Exabytes In 2015
Mark.JUK writes "Networking giant Cisco has released its latest annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) today, which forecasts that world internet traffic will quadruple by 2015 to reach 965.5 ExaBytes per year (up from 242.4 ExaBytes in 2010); when 40% of the world's population will be online (i.e. 3bn Internet users). Internet video will account for 61% of all consumer traffic in the same year, while P2P (File Sharing) will decline significantly to just 16%."
That's a lot of porn
A much more interesting story than a bunch of increasing marketing numbers by a company that benefits from increasing numbers, would be an explanation of how they made up these numbers...
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
We're that close to 1 zettabyte. We can do it.
Netflix's fault! Their clogging up the tubes. Them and that insidious YouTube will all those horrible lol cats.
Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once
I'm not sure I'd agree that p2p will decline! After all, now that MS bought Skype, I'd imagine Skype will continue to grow, and that's p2p. And many video sources could go that route also. And in the past, even MS has said p2p would be a nice way to sell software.
I wonder if 4 years ago Cicso was saying that streaming video was going to account for the majority of internet traffic in 2011? Trying to extrapolate future data use based on current trends is a risky business, and historically people have gotten it wrong a lot. 4 years is a very long time in internet time, who knows what new technology will come along in the meantime and soak up all of the bandwidth?
I read the internet for the articles.
"to reach 965.5 ExaBytes per year "
Sorry guys, my fault. It's easy to get carried away trying new Linux ISOs.
Are they calculating their numbers in 1000 or 1024 bytes chunks?
ISPs must be worried. At the moment they can throttle "heavy" users and still claim "unlimited" service, but even now we are seeing many of them being unable to copy with streaming video demands in the evenings. Soon everyone will be a heavy user.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
in 2015, our monthly cap would have increased from 50GB/month to maybe 100GB/month, with $7 per additionnal GB, all of this for only $99/month!
"Science will win because it works." - Stephen Hawking
According to TFA P2P volume increases, just not as quickly as other traffic.
File shareing will decrease... LOL, where do they get this information. Filesharing has increased everyyear espically as Games get larger. For me and other IT pro's I know we dont even watch TV anymore. We stream/download everything though a torrent site.
that 90 percent of anything is crap... will need to be updated, with a few additional 9's.
50% Porn
23% Lol Cats
10% Facebook
5% Teen sensation
2% Conspiracy theories, petitions, "Do this to stop Facebook checking up on you", etc.
0.5% Email
0.4% Business
0.1% Literature, Science, Art, other stuff that is beneficial to mankind
Because so much of the P2P _is_ video.
Why don't they answer some questions that are really interesting, like how much drive space will porn will take up in 2015, or how many ... aw, screw it, journalism today sucks, if they can't be professional, at least try for humorous, but no, they fail at that as well.
.... then I think it's time for the ISP providers to stop bitching' about having to build the infrastructure and just build it already, because that's an awful lot of info being passed around, whether or not it's music, videos, movies or what ever. The world is ever changing, people and companies have to constantly change with the technology if they wish to stay up with the world. As more and more companies push for people to go through the web to do business more and more people will get online, and if the ISP providers just keep sitting on their profits, complaining on how all the investments are theirs, they forget that so is the potential business.
The faster, more reliable, less limited the service provider makes things, the more business they will bring in.
Life takes interesting turns, but the most interest is when you're off the beaten path.
Look at all those copies. It's no wonder that our outdated copyright laws can't possibly keep up in the Information Age.
We couldn't obey those laws if we tried... How many copies traverse routers without license -- I've yet to see a web page that says:
Every last one of us commits contributory infringement via inducing the breach of copyright on our behalf...
Ironically, it seems that only works produced under the Free Software, Creative Commons, and Open Source copyright licenses can be legally transmitted simply because these licenses seek to reverse or nullify the restrictions granted by copyright. ("Copyleft -- all rights reversed.")
The founding fathers wrote that we should uphold the spirit of the laws they set forth -- Thus allowing old laws to remain relevant and sever their purpose instead of being twisted by time and interpretations of the letter of the law.
Copyright was allowed to exist for the benefit of the society as a whole. Now that it can not be upheld, and the society suffers its weight it should be abolished. How do you know the web page's copyright notice until you've already copied the page many times?!.
Copyright was intended to allow artists & authors to keep the greedy publishers at bay -- Now the greedy publishers use the law to harm the general public and the authors/artists. Additionally, with our own computers we are all elevated to the status of "publisher" or "distributor" when we should not have been, thus allowing the harsh law to ensnare us all when it was intended to restrict only a few.
The spirit of the law has been violated; We ignored the foresight of the founding fathers. Now we suffer in our arrogance.
Not with Usage Based Billing it won't
Bill Gates quoted as saying...
640 ExaBytes should be enough for anyone.
or...
965.5 ExaBytes? Wow, what a coincidence! That's the same as the minimum system requirement for Windows 8.
My old sig was REALLY stoopid.
The way ISPs are coming up with smaller and smaller monthly quotas, you'd think bandwidth usage would almost start decreasing year after year.
Télébec: 35GB per month (upload+download combined). Switch ISP? Impossible, since they operate in regions with no competition.
Sorry, unless you tell me how many Libraries of Congress we'll be transmitting in 2015, or provide a car analogy, I really can't make sense of this article.
I wonder if these people have never heard of significant digits... what is the point of going to the first decimal? Are they trying to tell me their four year away prediction is that accurate?
Video is already a big reason people use the Internet and no doubt all forms of Internet traffic will grow. But I'm always struck at how hard Cisco is working to sell the idea of video growth ... given that it is trying to convince the world that they need to ditch their current routers and switches and upgrade to its latest, greatest wares. Maybe it's true, but it still feels like a sales pitch.
Julie
Come on guys, 966 EB ? Why hold back ? Why not 966.1415927 EB in 2015 ?
Seriously, I would doubt any claim to know this number to better than about 50%.
In 2008, Cisco predicted 291 Exabytes/Year for 2010. That's 20% more than the actual value measured 2 years in the future. Extrapolated from those numbers, my prediction for the actual 2015 value is roughly 670.486EB. Source: http://newsroom.cisco.com/visualnetworkingindex/
If someone finds even earlier predictions, please post since we could drastically improve the accuracy of the values by extrapolating over larger timespans.
How many copies traverse routers without license
I don't know about foreign law, but 17 USC 512(a) appears to exempt the ephemeral copies made in the RAM of a router from liability for infringement.
increased divorce rates and HD porn. Single horny men in a surplus with a higher res outlet for spank? The equation couldn't be more simple.
http://capped.tv/playeralt.php?vid=unknown-wwwspeichergurkede
UNLESS YOU BUY NOW!!
My -1 Troll is actually a +1 funny. And my -1 flame is actually a +1 insightfull.
As champions of the internet, I believe that it is Comcast's solemn duty to start sabotaging video traffic now, before things get out of hand.
You know, there is a difference between trolling and pointing out the flaws in your reasoning. Just saying.
A company selling a product predicts the need for their product to increase tenfold after this message hits the interwebs.
It was around the year 2000 I heard a long speech by a short American woman in the Kürhaus in Scheveningen (The Netherlands.) This freshly arrived UUNet manager proclaimed that the Internet would double in traffic every 9 months.
I preferred to listen the two (very tall, Dutch) senior networkadminstrators that looked at each other in disbelief while muttering "Where did she get her figures from?"
Contrary to what some might expect, I believe Cisco is akin to the very short American UUNet manager, not the very tall networkadmins.
Karma? What's that again?
All the ISP's instituted their bandwidth caps. The reality will be much smaller now.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
The DNA replication in a human body does about 500 TB per second.
Without verifying or validating Ciscos forecast, the fact remains that traffic will grow to unmanageable proportions. Bandwidth caps or costly bandwidth will not act as a deterrent and should not too. The solution is definitely better compression of any media as these are the guzzlers. We at Chazz Studios identified this and are working on the worlds most powerful Media compressors. Imagine a 1 hour video file in a few Kilobytes.