Slashdot Mirror
Climate Unit Releases Virtually All Remaining Data
mutube writes "The BBC is reporting that the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, target of 'ClimateGate,' has released nearly all its remaining data on temperature measurements following a freedom of information bid. Most temperature data was already available, but critics of climate science want everything public. Following the latest release, raw data from virtually all of the world's 5,000-plus weather stations is freely available. Release of this dataset required The Met Office to secure approval from more than 1,500 weather stations around the world. The article notes that while Trinidad and Tobago refused permission, the Information Commissioner ruled that public interest in disclosure outweighed those considerations."
IMHO, it's not even remotely reasonable to start making political decisions and implementing laws or policies based on climate information, if that information isn't freely available.
Just because someone sold the numbers to someone else doesn't mean it's automatically part of a protected class of information the general public shouldn't be allowed to see. It only makes sense that the most interested parties would be the ones to foot the bill to get the initial information collected up and bundled for their use -- but this content can't be treated like a copyrighted work you can't redistribute without permission!
This is good news (except for Poland, who for SOME reason is holding out on releasing their numbers).
The article notes that while Trinidad and Tobago refused permission...
Wait, on what grounds? You can't copyright/patent/trademark facts. Why did they even bother asking?
Violence is like duct tape. If it doesn't solve the problem, you didn't use enough.
Nah, but labeling people you disagree with as deniers and shills seems to be
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
This is good news (except for Poland, who for SOME reason is holding out on releasing their numbers).
Isn't it obvious? Poland's numbers show that in twenty years, they're going to be the only ones on Earth with cold left. Siberia and Minnesota? Completely out of cold by 2031. Think of it. People will climb over themselves to get to the cold in Poland. China will buy cold pipeline through countries just to have access to it. Europe will be cast back into World War II-like conflict, you might even see England trade a piece of Poland back to the Ruskies just to end the conflict again. Barrels of crude cold will start trading at massively high prices. Ice cubes will be traded illegally on the street like crack until they've all melted. Obama's already foolishly dropped all of the United States' reserves to lessen the suffering during this heat wave--what are we going to do? Canada can easily blockade us from Alaska and claim what is left of the Inuit Cold for their own.
You're probably saying "Oh, America will just do what it always does and get shitfaced instead of worrying about that." How? We won't have any cold for our drinks. What, you're going to drink room temperature wine? Sure and afterward be sure to stick your tannin coated tongue out so everyone knows you're French.
Poland is trying to keep this strategic advantage hidden from the rest of the world. Gentlemen, I think the question here today is not how can we defer or lessen global warming but instead how quickly can we take Poland by surprise with unilateral action from land, air and sea. You might argue that we cannot afford a third war but I say that greedy selfish Poland has brought this upon themselves.
My work here is dung.
So if a doctor says you're ill, you'd get a second opinion from a carpenter? People of the same profession will "flock together". We can hope that some competitive spirit exists which will push some to criticize others (I wanted to say "we can hope that integrity and morality will guide them", but I couldn't stop laughing...). Most other alternatives will end up like the fairness doctrine.
Entomologically speaking, the spider is not a bug, it's a feature.
They will dig through the data and find the one datapoint (taken when Jimmy the REU accidentally spilled coffee on the sensor) that disagrees with the other 99 million points. They will then trumpet that one datapoint to the high heavens, and the disinterested masses will pay only just enough attention to get the subliminal impression that there is some doubt about climate change.
It really is absurd that purportedly educated people can believe that climatologists would spend over a decade in school, working long hours for peanuts, only to risk their professional careers by accepting bribes from fat cat environmentalists, all while those poor defenseless oil companies can't afford to defend themselves. It would be laughable, if only it weren't such a frightening display of the power demagogy holds over people.
Global *cooling* was not a consensus, but merely a possibility that was put forward in a famous paper, and explored for a little bit.
But this little bit of information will do nothing to dent your certainty that science is just plain flawed.
Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
So it boils down to a conspiracy theory. So we have the Creationists claiming a cabal of biologists intentionally attacking Creationism, the asbestos industry questioning the legitmacy of research indicating the health risks, the tobacco industry questioning research that smoking causes lung and cardiovasular disease, an climatologists in a vast conspiracy to lie about climate change.
Have I missed anything here?
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
"peer" doesn't mean what you think it means.
these people are all competing for limited funding. meaning that they all want to prove how rigorous and innovative they are.
rest assured, scientists argue amongst themselves a lot more than you might imagine.
and, once again, in caps for emphasis and cool:
SCIENCE IS NOT A GOOD WAY TO GET RICH.
this argument that peer review is useless because they're all riding the funding gravy train is just stupid. utterly, utterly stupid. if a scientist wanted to make lots of money, they'd become a plumber, or do modelling for a large bank. climate scientists predominantly want to save the world. i'm sure they'd love to see conclusive proof that everything's going to be fine, but it's just not there.
The fattest cat environmental group has only a small fraction of the oil and gas industries. If scientists were as vile and corruptable as the pseudo-skeptics always claim, they'd all be shilling for the fossil fuel industry. After all the scientists that do seem to do very well for themselves.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
No, there were definitely the target. Watch here and here.
Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
when your science fails to convince?
But the science /does/ convince on its own merits. Nobody who actually knows anything about the science could possibly be a sceptic unless they were stark raving mad.
Like all pain, suffering is a signal that something isn't right
UEA, is a British organization. They do have FOIA, but they don't work the same as NOAA. NOAA can only use public information, and generates public information. UEA does use public info, but it also uses private info. That private info was the holdup[1]. They need permission to release that. Does the private info matter? Well it seems so in that the NAM sucks the GFS (European) model is more accurate.
[1] The holdup was also in that UEA was inundated with requests for data and viewed the FOIA requests as a denial of service attack. They did then pripriitixe and release info, but selectively, which gave the impression that climate skeptics/deniers were not being serviced fairly which only added to the skeptics/denier's anger. And on more than one occasion info was released to non-skeptic/deniers that should not have been.
Now the only question is did they release raw data, or the "adjusted" data...
Slashdot's rate-of-post filter: Preventing you from posting too many great ideas at once.
Like the article says. Most of this data was already publicly available online:
I took this data and plugged it into Cornell’s free data analysis software Eureka and it found a clear warming trend in the data. I'm not statistician, so I was just playing around, but I have yet to see anyone use this data to argue for anything but a warming trend (Note: I have seen skeptics use parts of this data to show short-term cooling trends). My favorite email attacking the results the software gave me was that I had "manipulated" the data by copying-and-pasting it into Excel.
I'm glad more data is being made publicly available, but, like someone else said, that just means it's time for the skeptics to move the goalposts again. Either put up a competing hypothesis that explains the data or shut up.
i ~ Celebrating Science, Cyberspace, Speculation
I don't get the skepticism on slashdot.
It's called the Scientific method. It's founded on the principles of skepticism and independent confirmation. Without access to the full and complete set of data used originally, then you cannot provide that independent confirmation. And shouting down skeptics is, in fact, the opposite of the scientific method. Rather than shouting them down, they should be welcomed and addressed with all sincerity and substance as possible. For if your theory is correct - your proof in the face of skepticism will show it, unequivocally.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
So a climatologist, who has dedicated his life to the study of the Earth's climate, wouldn't have accounted for something as basic as solar radiance?
That's like asking a rocket scientist if he accounted for gravity.
How many is "Mountains of FOIA requests"? One? Because they refused to supply anything at all right from the start.
According to the various formal investigations, there were 50 something FOI requests over a 2 day period from the lovely folk at climate audit, most of them were requests for information that was already published so clearly they were not interested in doing any research. Phil Jones and his crew had every right to bitch and complain about such an obvious abuse of the justice system, however Jones overstepped the line in his reaction when he asked Mann to delete some emails (Mann ignored him).
As has been explained a billion times and discussed at great length in the formal investigations, the "hidden" data that was a couple of percent of the entire data set was under non-disclosure agreements so a tarball was not an option. One of the formal investigations also explains how it's 'layman' members were able to source copies of the "hidden" data in 48 hours simply by contacting the references given in papers published by Jones and his team (ie: basic research)
This article explains they have now done the legal legwork and are free of the constraints that prevented publication of something that has fuck all impact from a scientific POV.
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Is there any other areas of research where you would reject consensus opinions point to the invalidity of the accepted theory? I mean, pretty much all medical researchers agree that HIV causes AIDS, so do you just say "well, that's clearly groupthink, I think I'll go with a few lone wolfs who claim otherwise?" Evolution is agreed by almost all biologists to explain the diversity of life, so do you go "well, those biologists suffer group think, clearly Michael Behe and the Discovery Institute represent the appropriate skeptical view." Do you reject consensus views on radioactive decay? I mean, there are a few guys with degrees who insist that decay rates are invalid or mismeasured, or attack the statistical nature of decay. Do you immediately side with them because of the groupthink in the physics community on that matter?
You suffer that near universal trait of the pseudo-skeptic. You have a theory that for whatever reason you dislike. You know the majority of researchers accept that the theory, or at least some form of it does in fact represent reality. So you find a few scientists, cherrypicked regardless of expertise, decide "These guys reject the AGW consensus", and go with them. But to square that particular intellectually masturbatory circle, you have to come up with some rationale, no matter how unfounded or inapplicable, to wave away the consensus. In your case, you have some fucking book you read a long time ago talking about group think, put on your armchair psychology hat and declare the vast majority of researchers in fields related to climate as suffering this phenomenon you have now decided you have the expertise and faculties to diagnose.
And you mock me...
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Most of the deniers I meet don't know very much about science at all. As to the degree-packing skeptics, a goodly number are not active researchers at all, or not in any field closely related to climatology. There are a small number to be sure, but hell, Michael Behe is a molecular biologist with tenure at Baylor University and who is pretty much the laughing stock of the entire biology community for his evolution skepticism.
It's not as if all climatologists are Stepford Wife-styled drones who worship idols of Al Gore. There's plenty of good old fashioned scientific debate, scientists being among the most cantankerous people around who dream that they will be the next Darwin or Einstein who will revolutionize their discipline. When you get a bunch of these guys to agree that AGW is real, even if they can't all agree on the degree of any particular facet (it being a scientific theory, and not some sort of unchanging religious dogma) should signal that there probably is something to this theory.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Welcome to human society. We have this neat little thing called specialization.
When I need my car fixed, I go to a mechanic. I don't understand everything he does, but if most mechanics agree I need an oil change, then I'll trust them.
When I need a home to live in, I go to an architect. I don't understand everything they do, but if most agree that my home will stay standing, then I'll trust them.
When I need to cross a river, I go to a civil engineer. I don't understand everything they do, but if most agree that the bridge is safe, then I'll trust them.
When I feel sick, I go to a doctor. I don't understand everything they do, but if most agree that a certain medicine will help, then I'll trust them.
When I am hungry, I go to a chef. I don't understand everything they do, but if most agree that something is edible and nutritious, then I'll trust them.
When I need to go online, I go to electrical engineers and programmers. I don't understand everything they do, but if most agree that my computer and OS and browser aren't stealing my passwords, then I'll trust them.
When I want to know what is happening with the climate, I go to a climatologist. I don't understand everything they do, but if most agree that human release of CO2 is altering the climate, then I call them a bunch of damned liars and frauds and demand they make it all easy enough for me to understand!
It's a blatant double standard, and it only applies to fields that Republicans don't like, such as climatology and evolution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
An argument from authority is not a fallacy as long as the authority is a legitimate expert on the subject and there is a consensus among the majority. With the exception of the scientists working for BP, Exxon, and the like who don't really qualify as legitimate experts b/c they're paid to make a case rather than objectively obtain knowledge, there is a near consensus among the scientific community that humans have caused climate change which can have disastrous effects.
I can make a skeptical case against the big bang, but being skeptical for the sake of being skeptical isn't logical. That leads to all sorts of conundrums such as being skeptical that one exists at all (hello insanity), or being skeptical of the structural integrity of the building you're in (hello paranoia).
Did you independently confirm that your roof is structurally sound? If not, why are you sitting under it? Perhaps you logically assumed that the framers, carpenters, roofers, et al. did their jobs correctly and proficiently.
"From the depths of my skeptical and rationalist soul, I ask the Lord to protect me from California touchie-feeliedom."
I don't give a fuck what you're point of view is. Anybody who tries to justify his rejection of a consensus view by some psychobabble claptrap he read once probably is not in possession of a point of view worth listening to. I've already challenged you to explain why your group think explanation does not apply to every other fucking consensus view in science, and all you can manage for that is this sort of pitiable "you're not listening to me" bullshit. As to your complaints about statistical analysis, I mean come on, who the fuck do you think you're kidding? Where are your fucking qualifications? Provide some links to the department you work at so your qualifications on judging the researchers' statistical analysis can be assessed.
But let's get back to the fucking point, pal. I want you to tell me right fucking now why the consensus view of geologists on the age of the planet at by 4.5 billion years old is not simply a manifestation of your group think claim? I want you to tell me why the cosmologists consensus view that the universe is approximately 13.7 billion years old isn't an example of scientists falling pray to group think. I want you to tell me why calculated radioactive decay rights are not an example of group think and errant statistical analysis. Can you do that instead of the pathetic crocodile tears and handwringing so evident in every fucking response you've made to me.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
The same Kary Mullis that believes in astrology and who has long been condemned for making grand proclamations on fields he has no expertise in. Him and "a few thousand peers". Funny how skeptical you are of some things, but how fucking gullible you are in other areas.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
Sadly all you need to do is go back and look at the journals and articles of the 70's. And you will find exactly the same hysteria, and use of 'consensus' including the top scientists of the time agreeing that it was the greatest catastrophe that mankind will ever face.
Horseshit. And here's a pretty pie chart to back that up. And a more detailed graph as well.
The summary on the second link is also interesting (emphasis added):
So global cooling predictions in the 70s amounted to media and a handful of peer reviewed studies. The small number of papers predicting cooling were outweighed by a much greater number of papers predicting global warming due to the warming effect of rising CO2. Today, an avalanche of peer reviewed studies and overwhelming scientific consensus endorse man-made global warming. To compare cooling predictions in the 70s to the current situation is both inappropriate and misleading. Additionally, we reduced the SO2 emissions which were causing global cooling. The question remains whether we will reduce the CO2 emissions causing global warming.
"You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war." -- Albert Einstein
Except that's not how science works. We didn't go: "the earth is warming, man must have done it". Instead, scientists tried to understand the mechanisms, and the exact sequence of events that led to warming. They did that both for the modern era, and for the Younger Dryas. In both cases, they came up with a theory. The fact that these theories are different doesn't mean one is less likely to be correct than the other.
The theory than man is causing the warming is a perfectly reasonable one. We know man has increased CO2 in the atmosphere (by over 30%), we know that CO2 helps to block IR radiation that would otherwise be escaping from the earth. Ergo, the earth should be expected to warm. Also, when you do the calculations based on that, the results match the real temperature pretty well, not just for the modern era, but also for the glacial cycles and other events.
And if man didn't cause the warming, what is the alternative theory ? "Natural cycle" isn't a theory without explaining how this natural cycle works, and where the heat is actually coming from, and why it's happening now.
Still, it's more likely than a worldwide conspiracy between scientist to produce a result nobody really wants to hear, not even the people handing them the grant money.
I have looked at the pertinent emails. They provide no evidence for your assertions.
So, you're not the least bit troubled by the fact that medicines that target HIV also have the oddly coincidental side effect of saving the lives of AIDS patients?
Yeah man, you just don't get it. You see, all of those academic types pore over their "data" up in their ivory towers. And since they're up high they are closer to the Sun,so it's warmer to them.
Now compare that to the OP, who knows what's really happening on the surface of the Earth, since he can easily observe it through the window of his mom's basement...
"I guess the moral of the story is, don't paint your airship with rocket fuel." -- Addison Bain
Part of that reasons is because the Met Office in the UK has a nice little sideline selling climate data - if it's all available for free they'll lose that income. It was a bit daft though, as there were cases of people who'd submitted data to the Met Office for years having to pay for their own data when they lost their local copy! Other European meteorological agencies have similar policies.
It's a different culture in the US where all this data is freely available and interestingly the same applies to the raw weather model output too - the American GFS is free for all (and is widely used commercially in the UK) while the equivalent from the ECMWF costs a small fortune to access, especially ensemble output.
I'd prefer doctors who went into it thinking the material to be reviewed was at least probably bullshit
This is populist nonsense. First of all, you implicitly suggest that traditional peer review is carried out by a bunch of cronies who have a common, shameful agenda hidden away, and that it has to do with access to funding. But, believe it or not, most scientists are primarily interested in the surprisingly idealistic goal of discovering the scientific truth about something - the ones that are mostly after the money find jobs outside scientific research, because scientists are mostly paid modest salaries.
Secondly, peer review is only a small part of the scientific process - it is carried out to ensure that the articles published are not complete nonsense - even a scientific journal has a reputation to protect, and it is so infinitely easier to produce empty-headed nonsense rather than real, scientific data, so the real science would simpy drown if there were no peer review.
And of course, once you have published an article, the truth is that there is a whole world of scientists who are trying to pick your article, your data, your calculations and your conclusions apart - so where is the need to find somebody who are, a priori, prejudiced against your work, like you "would prefer"? No, I think your aim here is simply to discredit the sincere and trustworthy scientists who dare to reach conclusions you don't want to hear.
Really, what scientists have a severe resistance to is the thought of having to fend off the same, stupidly repeated falsehoods and misunderstandings over and over, which is what they have to deal with when it comes to creationism, just to mention one glaring example. And in climate research as well, of course.