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Power Companies Brace For Solar Storms

Hugh Pickens writes "Three large explosions from the sun over the past few days have prompted U.S. government scientists to caution users of satellite, telecommunications and electric equipment to prepare for possible disruptions over the next few days that could affect communications and GPS satellites, leave thousands without power for weeks to months, and might even produce an aurora visible as far south as Minnesota and Wisconsin. 'The concern is if the electric grid lost a number of transformers during a single storm, replacing them would be difficult and time-consuming,' says Rich Lordan, senior technical executive for power delivery and utilization at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The largest solar storm in recorded history was in 1859, when communications infrastructure was limited to telegraphs. Some telegraph operators reported electric shocks, papers caught fire, and the Northern Lights appeared as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. The first of the three solar explosions from the sun already passed the Earth on Thursday with little impact and the second is passing the Earth now and 'seems to be stronger.' "We'll have to see what happens over the next few days," says space weather scientist Joseph Kunches. '[The third storm] could exacerbate the disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field caused by the second (storm) or do nothing at all.'"

111 comments

  1. Excuse by DarkOx · · Score: 3, Funny

    Reads like something from the Bastard Operator From Hell's excuse calendar

    --
    Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    1. Re:Excuse by oneiros27 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Technically, yes, it was:

      It's friday, so I get into work early, before lunch even. The phone rings. Shit!

      I turn the page on the excuse sheet. "SOLAR FLARES" stares out at me. I'd better read up on that. Two minutes later I'm ready to answer the phone.

      "Hello?" I say.

      "WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN, I'VE BEEN TRYING TO GET YOU ALL MORNING?!"

      I hate it when they shout at me early in the morning. It always puts me in a bad mood. You know what I mean.

      "Ah, yes. Well, there's been some solar activity this morning, it always disrupts electronics..." I say, sweet as a sugar pie.

      "Huh? But I could get through to my friends?!"

      "Yes, that's entirely possible, solar activity is very unpredictable in it's effects. Why last week, we had some files just dissappear from a guys account while he was working on it!"

      "Really?"

      "Straight Up! Hey, do you want me to check your account?"

      "Yes please, I've got some important stuff in there!"

      "Ok, what's your username..."

      He tells me. Honestly, it's like shooting a fish in a barrel. Twice. With an Elephant Gun. At point blank range. In the head.

      Unfortunately, the excuse doesn't work when your boss also reads BOFH, is a solar physicist, and the project scientist for three the satellites mentioned in these articles.

      --
      Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
    2. Re:Excuse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unfortunately, the excuse doesn't work when your boss also reads BOFH, is a solar physicist, and the project scientist for three the satellites mentioned in these articles.

      It's cattle prod time, then!

    3. Re:Excuse by camperslo · · Score: 1

      Just as the Japanese government is buying up beef that grew from rice straw with a little something extra sprinkled on it? Prodding those cows may trigger an unexpected reaction...

      Could solar flares generate a new isotope of cesium? Can tablets be used to allow the masses to produce modern versions of those 50's B movies? Giant ants, crabs, mantis, possessed bulldozers, the blob... solar storms and an atomic mishap, the stuff classic B movie sci-fi can be made of. Will it all trigger something new in genetically engineered crops? Will the pads become self aware? Haven't you noticed the pad-people are taking over? The days of high powered A.M. radio had some people receiving signals in their teeth... and that was before Bluetooth and the amplifying effect of solar storms! Will the men aboard the International Space Station come back with unusual powers?

      The crew of a Japanese fishing boat was highly irradiated during the era of atomic testing in the Pacific, sparking the creation of the classic Japanese monster movies. Why not have some of this years' events lead to some sci-fi too??

      Japanese researchers have been able to produce sperm and perhaps eggs too from stem cells in mice. Is this merely a way to help couples of any gender combination or even a lone individual reproduce (to make Mars a planet of all women, or men perhaps?), or is it a conspiracy of irradiated scientists to produce monster mice from a single mutant?

    4. Re:Excuse by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      He tells me. Honestly, it's like shooting a fish in a barrel. Twice. With an Elephant Gun. At point blank range. In the head.

      Unfortunately, the excuse doesn't work when your boss also reads BOFH, is a solar physicist, and the project scientist for three the satellites mentioned in these articles.

      I think the solution to your ... dilemma ... is in rearranging the last couple of lines. Unless, of course, your Boss already has his own elephant gun, double-barrelled and is standing just behind you.

      Looking at you.

      Reading /.

      In

      your

      barrel.

      clickkity-click

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  2. bright tuesday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    so, Black monday is followed by a bright Tuesday

    1. Re:bright tuesday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      If anyone actually noticed the date on the article, "Published August 3, 2011" - the solar storms, FYI, were *last week*, and the peak of the impact was last Friday night, and has dropped to pretty much normal since.

      Sheesh, if you're gonna panic, at least check something current like spaceweather.com, and not panic over a NatGeo article published about "the coming problem" days after it already came & went, with little impact.

    2. Re:bright tuesday by Old+Sparky · · Score: 1

      NatGeo IS the coming problem.

    3. Re:bright tuesday by MaWeiTao · · Score: 1

      The fact that they're too cool to call themselves National Geographic anymore is evidence of that.

      I don't get the American fetish with chopping up words into little bite-sized chunks.

    4. Re:bright tuesday by chromas · · Score: 1

      I believe you mean AmFet

    5. Re:bright tuesday by rhyder128k · · Score: 1

      At least Germans join the words at full length when they make a compound one. Oh, how they must laugh at the feeble Americans.

      --
      Michael Reed, freelance tech writer.
  3. crazy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the sun scares me sometimes

    damn the comment system here is bugged up and slow.

    1. Re:crazy by Yvan256 · · Score: 2

      If The Sun scares you, why not switch to The New York Times?

  4. Communications disruption can mean only one thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Invasion

  5. Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The frequency and alarm with which these "OMG!!! Solar storm coming!!!" announcements are made, and the almost total lack of anything perceptibly happening, is quickly becoming a boy-who-cried-wolf situation. It's rather like tornado sirens going off just because there's a nasty storm dropping hail... it happens so frequently that everyone just ignores them, and what good is there in an early warning system if people have been conditioned to disregard it?

    1. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yet if they didn't and solar storms created a huge disruption, everyone would be up in arms about the government being asleep at the switch. There will always be people like you to complain about any situation no matter which action is taken instead of simply saying, "Thanks for the warning" and going about your day.

    2. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 5, Informative

      My issue is that Slashdot is "breaking" this story 5 days after National Geographic posted it and days after the storms already past yet the story reads like this is still an imminent event.

    3. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by isopropanol · · Score: 1

      One of my compact fluorescents let the magic smoke out last night... That's something... Possibly not related.

    4. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Better evacuate the house lest ye become poisoned by mercury. More srsly, I had one nearly catch my house on fire (flame shot out the base, blackened the shade of a fixture in the bathroom). Thus they are now no longer in my house. Instead I dim normal incandescants with Lutron stuff. Significant power savings.

    5. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by PhinMak · · Score: 0

      Mod parent up

    6. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by ColdWetDog · · Score: 2

      One of my compact fluorescents let the magic smoke out last night... That's something... Possibly not related.

      That's nothing. I had to reboot my MacPro! It's either Solar Flares or the End of the World is Nigh Upon Us!

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    7. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not sure what's been going on where you live but where I live there has been absolutely massive electrical storms for the last few days.

    8. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Will.Woodhull · · Score: 1

      That sounds nasty. Breathing vaporized Hg and all that. Any mad as a hatter symptoms?

      --
      Will
    9. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Mod parent up

      This sort of thing really, really pisses me off. Look, if a post is good I'll mod it up when I have the points; if it's not good I won't mod it up. Quite frankly I couldn't give two figs about your or anyone else's opinion unless I'm meta-moderating.

      Tell me, truly, do you really think that your telling people how to spend their point really makes a difference? Does the feeling that you might have effected even the tiniest whit of change make up for not having points of your own? Actually you needn't bother answering, just stop doing it please; posts like these are even more bereft of content than a decent troll, which is at least sometimes amusing. All your comment is good for (figuratively) is inflating your post count.

    10. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Atmospheric scientists have discovered that crises beget funding (see: ozone layer hole, global warming.)

    11. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by BluBrick · · Score: 1

      Any mad as a hatter symptoms?

      Well, he is posting to slashdot...

      --
      Ahh - My eye!
      The doctor said I'm not supposed to get Slashdot in it!
    12. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mod up

    13. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Neil+Boekend · · Score: 1

      Only if the glass is broken. As long as the glass is intact there is no greater danger than another electronic component burning out.

      --
      Well, I might have a way, but it only works on a semi spherical planet in a vacuum.
    14. Re:Getting to be ho-hum.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While Joe Shmoe may not notice them, satellite, electric grid, and communication operators do.
      Satellites are monitored for problems or put in a lowered state, electric grids are monitored to make certain they aren't at capacity, even if it means brown outs, communication operators switch to other frequencies, the military may decide against a strike, or make certain that communication frequencies are on channels that won't be affected.
      The multiple electric, communication, and satellite outages in the past have taught them how to operate around the storms, meaning many of those same outages don't occur today.

  6. Cell service, too by Matt_Bennett · · Score: 3, Informative

    Cellular service from CDMA providers Sprint could be disrupted as they use GPS trained oscillators to ensure synchronization between towers. Others could be affected as well, but I'm not sure of all that they use for time synchronization. I'd be suprised if they didn't use GPS, as GPS makes an extremely accurate clock very, very, cheap and low power. Sprint uses CDMA which needs decent time synchronization. It is very possible for CDMA to run without a good time reference, but it takes longer (really it's a tradeoff with time, power and hardware) to start up- why a GPS takes some finite amount of time to find your position, for example.

    1. Re:Cell service, too by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Just curious, if these systems have decent clocks (I have some servers that NTP-sync once a week and have clock drift compensation, that's all (free) software on regular PC hardware, and it's only off by a tiny fraction of a second after a week) how long could the network stay up if all the towers lost the GPS signal?

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    2. Re:Cell service, too by Cyberax · · Score: 3, Informative

      We're talking about microsecond-accuracy clocks. Even good quartz clocks drift too fast.

      There's the same problem in synchronous optic networks - endpoints _must_ be perfectly synchronized or it doesn't work at all. That's why communication companies are the biggest buyers of precise atomic clocks.

      The problem is, a lot of endpoints now use simple GPS receivers and not atomic clocks.

    3. Re:Cell service, too by Matt_Bennett · · Score: 3, Informative

      Realistically, the accuracy of NTP is in the millisecond range, not close to what you need for CDMA. There is a standard (IEEE1588) that can get you to better than a microsecond, but that requires a specialized hardware PHY. GPS can give you continuous accuracy on the order of hundreds of nano-seconds easily, and it's not a huge expense to get to 10s of nanoseconds.

    4. Re:Cell service, too by NoNonAlphaCharsHere · · Score: 3, Informative

      Everything you said is correct, however, in fairness, using a GPS receiver is using an atomic clock (by listening to one) -- the problem arises when your endpoint can't get a signal (say from interference due to solar flares) from said GPS/atomic clock.

    5. Re:Cell service, too by SrJsignal · · Score: 2

      You'd be correct, except you're not. Sprint (and anyone who really cares about time sync) doesn't use "cheap, low power" GPS time synchronization. They use relatively expensive rubidium backed gps trained oscillators which give a stability of 5x10^-11 seconds / month stability without gps lock. All these systems need is to have been synchronized to gps at some point, once they have that they are good to go for a long time as long as they don't lose power. They aren't using some ghetto cell phone gps clock. They use stuff more like this: http://www.spectracomcorp.com/ProductsServices/TimingSynchronization/GPSTimeFrequencyReferences/SecureSyncSynchronizationSystem/tabid/1304/Default.aspx

    6. Re:Cell service, too by tzanger · · Score: 1

      Actually it's not the PHY that's special for IEEE1588, it's the MAC. It has "fast path" hardware which can accurately timestamp/send out IEEE1588 frames.

    7. Re:Cell service, too by Matt_Bennett · · Score: 1

      Yup- I should have known this- I didn't think my answer through. The link between MAC and PHY is pretty deterministic and shouldn't affect timing. I don't know why I didn't make that inference.

  7. Then fix it... by Arlet · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why are the power companies warning us ? There's nothing we can do. It's their responsibility to keep the grid running, not ours.

    If it takes so long to get a replacement transformer, they should have ordered a couple years ago, and kept them as spares.

    1. Re:Then fix it... by freaxeh · · Score: 2

      Considering that one like the 1859 Solar Storm could wipe out 50% of all transformers in the USA, that would be a pretty large and costly pile of rotting transformers to keep on spare "just incase".

    2. Re:Then fix it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Substation power transformers are large, expensive items ($5-10,000,000 each) which are tailored to a specific site. They will have different ratings, cooling needs, impedances and connections. So your solution is to duplicate every one of these?
      I'm sure the utilities would be happy to buy double, but are you willing to pay extra on your electricity bill?

    3. Re:Then fix it... by Arlet · · Score: 2

      Maybe they can think of other solutions too. Perhaps the grid could be shut down and transformers removed from the power lines before they got ruined. Or built transformers with higher DC tolerance. But yeah, if there is no other option, keeping a large number of rotting transformers on spare is still a better idea than hoping another 1859 won't happen again.

    4. Re:Then fix it... by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      than hoping another 1859 won't happen again.

      There is no need for hope. The storms passed and as you can see, nothing happened. Slashdot is just once again days late to the party.

    5. Re:Then fix it... by Arlet · · Score: 2

      So your solution is to duplicate every one of these?

      My solution is to ask the power companies to take care of the problem, in the most efficient way possible. If there's a better way than buying double, they are more than welcome to use it.

      For instance, the replacement could be a slightly different type, as long it could provide a reasonable service during the time it takes to repair it properly.

      And of course, if the electricity bill must go up, then it must go up. It still beats a one-year power outage while they order a new transformer.

    6. Re:Then fix it... by Arlet · · Score: 2

      There is no need for hope. The storms passed and as you can see, nothing happened.

      I wasn't just talking about this particular storm. We'll need the grid for the next couple of solar cycles as well, and it would be smart to take the necessary precautions before the next killer CME is already on its way to Earth.

    7. Re:Then fix it... by Desler · · Score: 1

      Yes, and yours are apparently unnecessary precautions since as we can see, nothing happened. If you want to foot the bill for all those $10 million dollar transformers, go ahead. Just don't lump us in with hiked up energy bills due to your overreactions.

    8. Re:Then fix it... by freaxeh · · Score: 1

      than hoping another 1859 won't happen again.

      There is no need for hope. The storms passed and as you can see, nothing happened. Slashdot is just once again days late to the party.

      http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html

      mmm, I like to err on the side of caution, especially when history paints a different story.

    9. Re:Then fix it... by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Yes, and yours are apparently unnecessary precautions since as we can see, nothing happened

      Well, then we don't need all those silly warning stories either, if nothing is ever going to happen anyway.

    10. Re:Then fix it... by Amouth · · Score: 1

      So your solution is to duplicate every one of these?

      My solution is to ask the power companies to take care of the problem, in the most efficient way possible. If there's a better way than buying double, they are more than welcome to use it.

      ...

      the cheapest and most obvious solution is for them to disconnect transmission lines from sub stations ahead of the storm and ground them - then after it has passed reconnect. to do this on a large scale would take days head of the storm and days behind.. so best case ~1-2 weeks.

      personally i'd be fine with it.. but i have this odd feeling that most of the rest of the world wouldn't.. it's that lovely instant gratification feeling that people seem to have..

      --
      '...if only "Jumping to a Conclusion" was an event in the Olympics.'
    11. Re:Then fix it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's balancing a few weeks/months of disruption against an ongoing cost that's not been required in 150 years. At a time when power companies are already jacking up prices, how do you think people would respond to having to pay even more to keep a bunch of redundant generators in working order? Worst case, power is limited to essential services until replacements can be dropped in, and that's assuming insane levels of damage. Anyone who lived through the 70s when blackouts were common knows that, while annoying, this is perfectly survivable and likely preferable to a huge ongoing maintenance cost.

    12. Re:Then fix it... by Arlet · · Score: 1

      Probably the outage could be shortened by adding more accurate warning and measurement systems, so you only need to disconnect transmission lines when its really necessary.

      Even if that means a few days, that's better than letting it fry out, and have an even longer blackout.

    13. Re:Then fix it... by scharkalvin · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind we are talking about the largest transformers that are found at substations close to the power plants themselves. There are enough spare transformers in stock to replace any neighborhood 'pole pigs' that fail. These are the ones you will see on the utility pole outside your house. Even the larger transformers that are on the outskirts of town where a main feed line comes in and branches out are quite common. The worry is the REALLY HUGH transformers that feed the cross country lines.

    14. Re:Then fix it... by Amouth · · Score: 1

      I agree - or they could even put in transfer switches so that they could do it faster - either way it is the option of turning power off to the consumers.. which for the safty and longevity and cost is the logical thing to do - but because people/consumers are not rational - this won't happen and instead we will fry transformers and replace them all in the name of instant gratification.

      --
      '...if only "Jumping to a Conclusion" was an event in the Olympics.'
    15. Re:Then fix it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not aboutt instant gratification. We depend on electricity to live our daily lives. We need power to transport and store food, to run equipment at hospitals, for security and defense, etc. Some power could be provided with generators, but that would only work for absolutely essential equipment and services. If nothing else, we'd likely have severe food shortages if we completely turned off the power in advance of a solar storm. Obviously, I'd rather not lose power for a year, but we can't turn off the power for a week or two every time there's a solar flare.

    16. Re:Then fix it... by Dunega · · Score: 1

      Feel free to ignore them then. I'd rather know that something could happen, even if there was nothing I could do about it.

    17. Re:Then fix it... by kryliss · · Score: 1

      Back in the 70's people weren't so dependent on their little gadgets and gizmos... Many people these days can't seem to survive without them.

      --
      --- If the bible proves the existence of God, then Superman comics prove the existence of Superman.
    18. Re:Then fix it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But yeah, if there is no other option, keeping a large number of rotting transformers on spare is still a better idea than hoping another 1859 won't happen again.

      As long as they don't charge it to the customers, right?

    19. Re:Then fix it... by Bengie · · Score: 1

      Year ago I read about this stuff. There is a relatively cheap and simple fix that allows high DC current to short strait to ground instead of going through the transformer.

      Too bad our government hasn't cared to enforce the use of such devices to protect us from a nation wide black out if a solar storm did hit us.

    20. Re:Then fix it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wonder if there is a limit to which if the line length is below this value, then the installed protection equipment as-is is likely to handle the event. The grid operators would have to balance and shed loads to allow the securing of the lines which are longer than this critical length. The grid is all interconnected to allow the sharing of loads between areas with excess generating capability to those without. The longest lines are most likely not used for local distribution but for this sharing between far apart areas. Dividing the grid down into small self powered "islands" will not allow this sharing and my make things more unstable as far as the ability to handle sudden changes in loads but if only for a few days may be worth it. Kinda like if there's a lightning storm and you disconnect your laptops from the house mains. Yes, you can't run that way for long but if the power system takes a nearby hit, your laptop doesn't get fried.

    21. Re:Then fix it... by cusco · · Score: 1

      To expand on this comment a bit . . . the really big transformers, switches and relays are all custom-made with backorder times of 3 months to >1 year. The utilities generally carry one or two of each type as spares, but when the primary and spare are gone that's it until the replacement is built. There are only a couple of companies that make them, so if you have a dozen go up in smoke, either by solar or terrorist activity, the utilities are SOL for a **LONG** time. And no, there's no way around this without major changes to the way the electrical grid is put together.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    22. Re:Then fix it... by cusco · · Score: 1

      The grid won't take it. Shut down half a dozen major transformers in a region without adequate preparation and you'll be melting transmission lines (literally) as the automated systems don't have the brains to adapt correctly. Of course if the transformers blow up on their own simultaneously you still have the same situation, I suppose . . .

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    23. Re:Then fix it... by Amouth · · Score: 1

      i wasn't in anyways thinking you would have them quick flip on/off but rather be designed to facilitate being disconnected - right now transmission lines are not meant to be disconnected at either end.. there for that task would take considerable time and manpower.

      --
      '...if only "Jumping to a Conclusion" was an event in the Olympics.'
    24. Re:Then fix it... by Neil+Boekend · · Score: 1

      I think you mean high DC voltage:
      High DC voltage can be shorted to the ground with a quite spectacular arc or with a MOV (lightning arrestor).

      High DC current can be stopped by using a fuse, but fuses are usually to slow to protect from a direct lightning strike (it takes a fraction of a second for the fuse to melt). The voltage driving said current can be shorted fast enough.

      --
      Well, I might have a way, but it only works on a semi spherical planet in a vacuum.
    25. Re:Then fix it... by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      I read an article about this problem back in the 80s, actually. At that time the concern was that a well-organized terrorist (or foreign - remember this was the cold war) attack could take out the power grid for a long time.

      A typical city does not have a lot of redundancy in its substation network - it can lose one or two, but not more than that. And, when power goes out it is usually due to breakers tripping or things like that - not deliberate attack.

      The threat model in the article was a bunch of infiltrators with rifles that at a coordinated time start shooting at insulators in substations. This would destroy the equipment, and there is not enough of a supply of these transformers in stock to replace them quickly. Plus, if this was coordinated nationwide you could literally end up with 90% of the USA having no electricity for six months, which certainly complicates building new transformers and getting them where they need to be.

  8. cloudy possibly sunny with a chance of rain by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the third storm could be worse or do nothing. all possibilities neatly covered. i guess solar meteorologists are similar
    to the terrestrial kinds.

  9. Where the fuck are Minnesota and Wisconsin? by BlackPignouf · · Score: 0

    For those not well-versed in US geography :

    as far south as Minnesota and Wisconsin.

    is somewhere between 42.5N and 49N.
    This range pretty much includes all Europe (except Portugal/Spain/Italy/Balkans), Russia, Mongolia, and Northern parts of China & Japan.

    1. Re:Where the fuck are Minnesota and Wisconsin? by dtmos · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This range pretty much includes all Europe (except Portugal/Spain/Italy/Balkans), Russia, Mongolia, and Northern parts of China & Japan.

      This is correct, but it's not correct to assume that people in these areas can expect to see an auroral display just because one is visible in Minnesota. Auroral displays are responsive to geomagnetic, not geographic, coordinates, and the geomagnetic coordinates swing south over North America and north over Asia. One would have to be above 60N (geographically) to see an auroral event in Asia visible in Minnesota at 45N.

  10. Ummm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    to caution users of satellite, telecommunications and electric equipment to prepare for possible disruptions over the next few days

    Because satellites and telecommunication equipment aren't "electric"? Do they run on pixie dust? Why not just say "electrical equipment might be affected"?

    1. Re:Ummm... by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      I guess some people would think "telecommunications are done by optic fibers now, electric disturbances won't affect them". You know, people who know just enough information to still be wrong in their logic.

  11. Re:Old by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 0

    This story is 5 days old already.

    FTFY.

  12. Even better. . . by dtmos · · Score: 4, Informative

    might even produce an aurora visible as far south as Minnesota and Wisconsin

    The submission is so old, we can say what really happened. Aurora were visible in the United States as far south as Utah, Colorado, and Nebraska. (Tip-'o-the-hat to SpaceWeather.com.)

  13. Not as bad as copper thieves by CuriousGeorge113 · · Score: 2

    For all the potential "fire and brimstone" these solar storms have the potential to cause, they still have yet to achieve the level of destruction and disturbance to our power and communications infrastructure as copper scrappers.

    I can count at least three incidents this year where I was affected by scrappers removing copper that was in-use (communications and power). I can't think of one instance in my entire life (30 yrs) where a solar storm has caused me a disruption.

    --
    No man is an island, But if you take a bunch of dead guys and tie them together, they make a pretty good raft.
    1. Re:Not as bad as copper thieves by CubicleView · · Score: 3, Funny

      This one seems to have disrupted your work though.

  14. The 1989 Quebec Solar Storm, good reading material by freaxeh · · Score: 4, Informative
    I always thought that the 1989 Quebec Solar Storm was a good example of what might occur: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html

    In space, some satellites actually tumbled out of control for several hours. NASA's TDRS-1 communication satellite recorded over 250 anomalies as high-energy particles invaded the satellite's sensitive electronics. Even the Space Shuttle Discovery was having its own mysterious problems. A sensor on one of the tanks supplying hydrogen to a fuel cell was showing unusually high pressure readings on March 13. The problem went away just as mysteriously after the solar storm subsided.

    http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/1/3/12

    Service restoration took more than nine hours. This can be explained by the fact that some of the essential equipment, particularly on the James Bay transmission network, was made unavailable by the blackout. Generation from isolated stations normally intended for export was repatriated to meet Quebec's needs and the utility purchased electricity from Ontario, New Brunswick and the Alcan and McLaren Systems.

    By noon, the entire generating and transmission system was back in service, although 17 percent of Quebec customers were still without electricity. In fact, several distribution-system failures occurred because of the high demand typical of Monday mornings, combined with the jump in heating load after several hours without power.

    So... It caused a cascading effect, just like the most recent New York blackout, scary stuff if it occured across even a marginal size of the USA.

  15. Why is equipment still susceptible to this? by mkraft · · Score: 1

    You'd think in this day and age that things like transformers and the grid could be either shielded against EM radiation or simply add things like surge protectors or circuit breakers to the grid designed to withstand solar storms (or nukes even).

    1. Re:Why is equipment still susceptible to this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It certainly could be shielded - I believe a lot of military hardware is, but it is similar to earthquake proofing buildings in that it is hideously expensive. So without government regulation (evil, evil regulation...), companies that run on profits will certainly not spend the money to protect their systems for an event that might happen once every 100 (?) years. Considering that they aren't able (or willing) to spend the money to improve the infrastructure to deal with 'normal' use (cascading blackouts anyone?)...

      And even if they were - to what extend do you need to proof it? A 8 magnitude quake (to extend the earthquake comparison)? 9? 10?

    2. Re:Why is equipment still susceptible to this? by rkflash · · Score: 1

      You can deploy ground-induced current monitors on transformers and tie it in to a protection scheme of your choosing, so it's not as if there's no options whatsoever.

    3. Re:Why is equipment still susceptible to this? by Rich0 · · Score: 1

      In a word, deregulation causes this sort of problem.

      The old model was cost-plus. The utility creates a plan for how they'd like to operate, and how much electricity should cost to pay for it. The Public Utilities Commission would approve the plan. Then everybody follows the plan and you get charged the state-approved rate for your electricity use.

      Typically these plans would include some level of redundancy/protection/etc so that the whole country wouldn't be in the dark ages if a tree shorted out one transmission line in the wrong place. That was factored into the expense, and the rates, that were charged.

      Deregulation uses a different model. In deregulation generators get paid to sell electricity. If you generate electricity, and you don't sell it, then you don't get paid. Nobody approves any plans. In theory you have incentive to keep your plant running, since if you break down you aren't generating electricity, and thus you aren't getting paid. However, this breaks down in the area of redundancy and risk-prevention.

      Redundancy by its definition means being able to produce more power than you can sell. That is just a loss to a generator. It has huge benefits for society, but the generators don't get paid for that, so they have no incentive to provide it. To some extent you can argue that they stand to make profit if a competitor goes down, but the economics of that usually don't work out.

      Let's look at it from a supply vs consumer standpoint. I run a hospital. My electric bill is $10k/month. A one-day electrical interruption of any kind probably would easily cost me $50k to deal with. Now, suppose I run a generator. I make $10k/month selling power to a hospital. If my plant goes down for a day and that is the straw that breaks the camel's back taking out half of the East Coast of the USA, I lose about $300 ($10k/30) in revenue selling electricity to that hospital. Now, that multiples across many more customers, but at the end of the day I have a lot less incentive to produce power than my consumers have to get it reliably.

      In order to fix this you need to either get rid of deregulation, or you need to create a framework that provides incentive to have generation on standby or just mandate that companies can't sell more than 80% of their power so that the level playing field just increases the market price a little.

    4. Re:Why is equipment still susceptible to this? by niftymitch · · Score: 1

      Bonus... first to mention surge protectors.

      Wait a couple hours then go and buy some
      for the home (I want to get mine first).

      One problem is that in large numbers they will trigger breakers and
      fuses knocking out power in large areas that will then trigger surges in
      other areas. The good news is that your flat screen TV might
      survive but there will be no wall power or TV transmissions
      to watch.

      --
      Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't. Mark Twain.
  16. What the hell is International Business Times? by niktemadur · · Score: 2

    On Google News, IBT's headlines on the subject are:
    Massive Solar Storm Could Cause Catastrophic Nuclear Threat in US
    as well as
    Severe Solar Storm to Create Global Chaos and Complete Darkness
    and
    Solar Storm Watch: Could This be Armageddon?

    It's not even about "whoever screams the loudest gets the attention" anymore, it's just a loud, hollow mindset, by default. Sheesh.

    --
    Lil' Thindime, lilting a lacrimose lament, krashes the kwaint konfines of Kokonino Kounty
    1. Re:What the hell is International Business Times? by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Solar Storm Watch: Could This be Armageddon?

      Nah, that's in October, innit?

  17. How do we know the third storm is coming? by jordan314 · · Score: 1

    This is hurting my brain a little. How do we know a third storm is coming when it's traveling at the speed of light toward us? Don't we detect storms by seeing them from earth, when the EM radiation has already traveled here? I'm guessing maybe we have sensors closer to it? Also doesn't it only take 8 minutes for sunlight to hit the earth?

    1. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      This is hurting my brain a little. How do we know a third storm is coming when it's traveling at the speed of light toward us?

      The photons from a solar storm (primarily, the x-rays) travel at the speed of light.

      What's damaging, though, are the charged particles (primarily protons) emitted by the sun. These do not travel at the speed of light.

      So you see it coming before it gets here.

    2. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it's not traveling at the speed of light. No where close.

      It's a big cloud of plasma kicked off from the surface of the sun. The magnetic fields and charged particles within that cloud are the "storm," not the EM radiation from the solar flare itself.

    3. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      CMEs don't travel at the speed of light.

    4. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The disruption is not traveling at the speed of light. The particles leaving the sun travel ~560 miles per second. That would take just over 3 days to reach Earth.

    5. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The storm isn't travelling at the speed of light. We're talking about a bunch of charged particles in the form of solar wind, not gamma rays. This stuff takes 2-3 days to get here.

    6. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      A photon is the basic unit of light and all other electromagnetic radiation (radio waves/etc), it has no mass, and travels at the speed of light. When the Sun produces a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), the key word is "mass" -- on average a CME contains about 1.7 billion tons of matter. Matter cannot travel at the speed of light. So 8 minutes after the CME, the photons arrive and you can observe that there was a CME. But the actual mass usually takes 1 to 5 days to arrive here from the Sun.

    7. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by mortonda · · Score: 1
    8. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by afaiktoit · · Score: 1

      Its not the EM radiation, its the shit load of particles hitting the earths magnetic field that comes later.

    9. Re:How do we know the third storm is coming? by Bengie · · Score: 1

      Not at the speed of light, but quite fast. Talking only hours to travel 92 mil miles

  18. Do you have a plan to shield all tha wire? by Sycraft-fu · · Score: 2

    Remember the problem isn't the transformers themselves. They aren't getting hit with enough directly to cause a problem. It is the thousands and thousands of miles of wire having current induced in them, which then goes to the transformers.

    If you have a suggestion for how to shield all that, for a cost that is reasonable, well I'm sure they'd love to hear it.

    If all they had to do was shield large transformers, well that might be done but it isn't that simple.

    In terms of surge suppressors, do you understand the magnitude of what you are talking about? We aren't talking about line voltage, you are talking about things that operate 300,000-800,000 volt range and thousands of amps. That is what the major distribution lines operate at.

    Not so easy to put a surge protector on that. I don't even know how you'd design an effective one at that level, much less how much it'd cost.

    1. Re:Do you have a plan to shield all tha wire? by dissy · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Not so easy to put a surge protector on that. I don't even know how you'd design an effective one at that level, much less how much it'd cost.

      For the "low" amperage lines that operate under a few thousand amps, they actually do make surge fuses rated for that amperage. They are pretty interesting, using a special mixture of basically sand. At a high enough amperage level, the sand melts into glass and expands destroying the connectivity metal and turning into a non-conductor.

      Granted, these are more like fuses than surge suppressors, and need replacing after being 'blown', but they do protect the low end transformers.

      For the very long transmission lines at high amperage however, I do not believe there are any solutions in place to handle that type of energy.

      Either way, your point stands. What we can do about the problem is very limited, and requires manual intervention with a lot of lead time.

  19. Because of the inputs ... by oneiros27 · · Score: 2

    EM shielding won't help as it's not that the transformers themselves are directly affected ...

    The long power lines act as antenna, so it comes in as a surge in the normal input (or feedback from the output). I know it's not cost-effective to re-string every power line with something that's shielded (and that in turn could reduce the transmission ability, as they don't like making power cables more than about 5cm thick, so you minimize wind and ice loads).

    So, you'd have to put in some sort of a surge suppressor into the transformer ... which of course adds cost, but also gives you something else that can go wrong ... and for something that only happens once a decade, it might not be worth the potential for extra failures, the possible efficiency loss, etc.

    As for circuit breakers ... wasn't that what took out the whole north-east when Ohio lost a section of their grid?

    --
    Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
    1. Re:Because of the inputs ... by rkflash · · Score: 1

      As for circuit breakers ... wasn't that what took out the whole north-east when Ohio lost a section of their grid?

      Yes it was, because the circuit breakers/protection were the only things that did their job properly that day

  20. Dumb question, but... by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 2

    Could these storms have interfered with WiFi? I had a few days during which I could not get my home network to work at all, in spite of maximum 40 foot / 13 meter distances between router and PCs, and trying pretty much every legal WiFi channel available. I'm in northeast Ohio. As of this morning things are gradually returning to almost-normal.

  21. What will my car do? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    With a computer in the car controlling fuel injection and everything else, I can imagine the car would, at worst, destroy the engine, but more likely fall somewhere on a continuum from stopping temporarily to running rough for the duration of the storm. Any other predictions?

  22. Children of the sun by questhe · · Score: 1

    People of the earth can you hear me? ...

    We are expecting ships to come in one by one.

    Oh, it's over? damn. They snuck in.

    --
    You don't understand: I am not locked up in here with you, you are locked up in here with ME!
  23. Or ... by powerlord · · Score: 2

    FTFS:

    '[The third storm] could exacerbate the disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field caused by the second (storm) or do nothing at all.'"

    Oh ... is that why my TV is suddenly picking up the ISS.

    I figured it was just a new odd run of Big Brother.

    I LOVED the episode where they voted the astronaut off the station at the same point the Solar Storm passed through! Gave him super powers he used to swing back and exact his revenge. ... no ... wait ... that was just a troubled fever dream from lasagna too late. So hard to keep track whats "reality" TV.

    --
    This space for rent. All reasonable inquiries will be entertained at proprietors discretion.
  24. Re:Knowing by geminidomino · · Score: 1

    That was my first thought, too.

    What a fucking depressing movie.

  25. On topic by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

    I got a decent shot of the aurora resulting from the CMEs here in Montana early Saturday morning. I've collected my aurora shots here.

    I have to say that although this was (visually) a moderately strong event, it wasn't even close to some of the auroral storms of the 90's. The power in the auroral oval wasn't very high, either.

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  26. No time anyway? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    iirc from my High School days, don't we only have 8 minutes to react to anything like this anyway before we're already hit by it? What is the point of telling us to brace for stuff when we don't have time to react.

    Am I missing something?

    1. Re:No time anyway? by BluBrick · · Score: 1

      iirc from my High School days, don't we only have 8 minutes to react to anything like this anyway before we're already hit by it? What is the point of telling us to brace for stuff when we don't have time to react.

      Am I missing something?

      Yes, you are.

      --
      Ahh - My eye!
      The doctor said I'm not supposed to get Slashdot in it!
  27. Re:Communications disruption can mean only one thi by craigminah · · Score: 0

    Luckily they discovered antimatter belts recently...those should save us.

  28. Circuses by Msdose · · Score: 1

    Good thing we have stories like this to disable our awareness as the government prepares full-scale communism as the only solution to the problems that their small-scale communism caused.

  29. Conspiracy? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    OK.. cue the 2012 loons...
    Now.

    LiamTek

  30. Disguised as lightning strikes etc.? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think they're happening alright, they're just disguised as something else to reduce panic, and so as not to fuel conspiracy theorists

    http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/11/08/08/0056252/Lightning-Strike-KOs-Amazon-Microsoft-EuroClouds

    But that's just my opinion.