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Rare Earth Restrictions To Raise Hard Drive Cost

MojoKid writes "Multiple manufacturers in the IT industry have been keeping a wary eye on China's decision to cut back on rare earth exports and the impact it may have on component prices. There have been reports that suggest we'll see that decision hit the hard drive industry this year, with HDD prices trending upwards an estimated 5-10 percent depending on capacity. Although rare earth magnets are only a small part of a hard drive's total cost, China cut exports last year by 40 percent, which drove pricing for these particular components up an estimated 20-30x. China currently controls 97 percent of the rare earth elements market for popular metals like neodymium, cerium, yttrium and ytterbium."

34 of 254 comments (clear)

  1. The obvious first question... by suso · · Score: 4, Interesting

    that this article doesn't touch on at all is does this affect Solid State Drives (SSDs)? Probably not because they don't use magnets. So this will just speed up the jump to SSDs. You could be the cynic and think that somehow China decided to raise rare earth prices to drive SSDs, but I kinda doubt that Hard drives in general make up a significant part of that decision.

    1. Re:The obvious first question... by sortius_nod · · Score: 5, Insightful

      actually, you're 100% wrong.

      The restrictions are to try to get high tech industry to develop in China. There are no restrictions of use of rare earth metals in China, just the export of the raw materials. It's a good way to ensure high tech manufacturing does develop. Essentially China can hold the world to ransom due their highly developed and underpaid RE mining industry. It's much cheaper to refine RE minerals in China due to lack of industrial relations and environmental laws.

      Hell, even Australian RE companies are hesitant to set up refining here due to the massive amounts of radioactive waste from refining RE minerals.

      China are even buying up large stakes in Australian RE mining companies just to gain even more of an edge. Chinalco attempted to take over Australia's largest RE miner and was blocked by the ACCC in no small part due to China's stance on RE exports.

      Maybe look a bit deeper rather than just looking at company profits. China are all about bringing jobs onshore and having the upper hand globally.

      Aside from this, very happy I bought 4x 2GB HDDs recently for my new array, in before the price rise!

    2. Re:The obvious first question... by Nimey · · Score: 3, Interesting

      5-10% isn't that much. Spinning discs will still be a lot cheaper than even the cheapest SSDs.

      --
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      E pluribus sanguinem
    3. Re:The obvious first question... by suso · · Score: 2

      I remember 8MB of RAM costing $300 back in 1996 or so and an article came out in PC Magazine or something called "Why RAM prices won't go down", then a month or two later, they dropped through the floor.

    4. Re:The obvious first question... by sonicmerlin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There will be no jump to SSDs. The price of entry into the market is too high ($25 billion for a new fabrication plant), and supply is constantly being outstripped by growing demand. Cost of production is also not falling fast enough. The industry expects to transition to a new and more efficient technology by 2014 or 2015, whatever that may be.

    5. Re:The obvious first question... by sonicmerlin · · Score: 2

      2 GB HDDs huh? You must be ecstatic.

    6. Re:The obvious first question... by Lanteran · · Score: 2

      Have you ever actually used an SSD? The speed is quite noticeable, coming from a fresh install of arch on a 7200RPM to a SATAII SSD. The reason they cost so much is because flash is a bit harder to scale up than magnetic drives, which can come for pennies on the gigabyte. They also are far less prone to failure than mechanical drives, containing no moving parts. So SSDs are perfect for both embedded systems and smaller systems, and they should be complimented by a TB drive when more space is needed. The only mechanical drives that even come close in speed to SSDs that I know of are 15000RPMs, which are as expensive as hell.

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    7. Re:The obvious first question... by Nimey · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Point is that we don't know /when/ SSDs are going to reach that magical point, but it'll certainly be after we see the effects of China tightening up the rare-earth supply.

      --
      Hail Eris, full of mischief...

      E pluribus sanguinem
    8. Re:The obvious first question... by Nimey · · Score: 4, Informative

      And about time, too. Prior to that RAM had been expensive forever. 4MB of RAM had been $200 for at least three years before the prices started going down.

      --
      Hail Eris, full of mischief...

      E pluribus sanguinem
    9. Re:The obvious first question... by Pentium100 · · Score: 2

      And yet, not all applications need drives that fast. For example, my movie collection does not need 100MB/s read speed. I do not need a 64GB SSD for the movie collection. If my collection is small enough to fit in 64GB then I could buy a used 80GB hard drive and save lots of money.

    10. Re:The obvious first question... by hairyfeet · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The problem with SSDs are the failure rates on those are frankly insane, so bad that Atwood at Coding Horror thinks they should be judged on a hot/crazy scale as in how much are you willing to lose and how much money/downtime are you willing to put up with for the speed. He still recommends them but then again this is a guy that recommends spending over $400 on a pair of headphones with another couple of hundred on an amp to drive them.

      This of course doesn't even figure in the facts that SSDs are frankly tiny little suckers and that one of any decent size would frankly be several orders of magnitude higher than the price increase on HDDs. Hell in my own case my basic WinXP/7 dual boot is taking up probably close to 200Gb simply because with 3Tb I never have to give a crap. I don't even want to know what an SSD big enough to hold that would cost, not to mention the 500Gb+ in movies, music, games, and audio projects I have on board.

      No, frankly the answer is quite simple and something we should have been doing for a long time and would have been if it weren't for traitors in congress giving tax breaks to those that offshore so they have NO penalty for exporting vital industry. what we should do is fire the mines back up in NM and treat it as what it is, vital to our national interest. it should be nationalized (I believe We, The People already own the land) and Americans should be put to work mining that ore. Too many electronics require those metals to have our industry cut off at the knees by the Chinese, and Lord knows there are plenty of Americans that can use the work.

      --
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    11. Re:The obvious first question... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Score:4, Interesting", my arse.

      As I said elsewhere, if you can't even tell us the first thing about the technology the industry will supposedly be transitioning to in 3 or 4 years time, it suggests that you're talking out of your backside.

  2. A solution. by Oxford_Comma_Lover · · Score: 5, Funny

    That's okay. With the economy where it is, we can replace the magnets with interns.

    --
    -- IANAL, this isn't legal advice, and definitely isn't legal advice for you. Also, Squee!
  3. Yet another obvious solution by xkr · · Score: 3, Informative

    The rest of the world (read: US) does not have rare earth mineral (which aren't rare at all, actually) mines because China has a long history of simply lowering prices until all competing mines have gone out of business. China considers that having a monopolistic source for rare earths gives them substantial manufacturing advantages for thousands of products, including florescent lights, medical supplies, and disk drives.

    IMHO all of these products, including motors for hybrid vehicles, are too important to allow China to trivial blackmail the rest of the world at their pleasure. All that is needed is the US government to guarantee purchase at some set price and dozens of new mines would open overnight in the US.

    --
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    1. Re:Yet another obvious solution by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Informative

      All that is needed is the US government to guarantee purchase at some set price and dozens of new mines would open overnight in the US.

      No, the market price by itself would support opening or reopening of rare earth mines. What you may need is a waiver from the EPA.

      Rare earth mining is problematic because even 'high quality' ore is very dilute. Vast quantities of material have to be processed in order to obtain any product. The primary extractive processes aren't all that polluting. The mines use a combination of physical process (magnetic separation, water separation) to concentrate the material to about 50% purity. Getting it from 50% to pure metal, however, requires quite a bit of energy and the use of a number of toxic processes.

      One way to solve this problem is to do the primary extraction at the mine site and then transport the more valuable (and now quite a bit more concentrated) ore to a central site which has the technology and supervision to further extract the material at minimal environmental risk. The US DOE (Dept. of Energy) is looking into these sorts of issues. Of course, China need not be bothered by any of this mamby pamby Greeny stuff, so they have a built in competitive advantage.

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    2. Re:Yet another obvious solution by jedidiah · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Actually, the exact reverse of what you are claiming will happen.

      Everyone else in the world will have tapped out all of their resources and we will be left with ours. We will be left with our Oil and our Rare Earths because the EPA stuck it's nose in. When it matters, WE will be the ones that are self sufficient.

      That's what happens when you plan ahead or consider something more than just the moment.

      Sure, it's side effect the tree hugger's view of thinking ahead but it works out anyways.

      --
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    3. Re:Yet another obvious solution by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Insightful

      !! sarcasm alert !!

      Read it again. I don't think China is doing anyone a favor by trashing their environment for short term profit. The balance between environmental regulation and economic opportunity is a difficult one to maintain, but I for one, am happy to pay a bit more for clean water and happy critters.

      My point is that with some forethought and planning, it appears possible to increase the US rare earth mining with acceptable environmental damage by centralizing the secondary refinement process so it can be closely controlled and monitored and perhaps reap some benefits of scale. There was an interesting report on this somewhere, can't recall where I found it and Google and my brain aren't working together as a team this afternoon....

      In general, China's current approach to trashing the environment on a huge scale is going to come back and bite them in the ass within a generation. Inscrutable long term planning, indeed.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    4. Re:Yet another obvious solution by Dunbal · · Score: 2

      Fuck later generations

      Yes, fuck them. Because if we don't fuck it up, they will. At least we can enjoy ourselves while fucking things up. All this healthy ecosystem garbage is just a political talking point. People keep breeding like rats and soon it won't matter how careful you are or how much you recycle, there won't be enough raw materials per capita, and there will be too much filth per m2. So fuck everyone. If people were responsible they would limit themselves to 2 children or less. I have. But most people aren't responsible. So fuck it, I will live as I damned well please as well. Why should I be the only one making a sacrifice? Bring on the end I say, the sooner the better.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    5. Re:Yet another obvious solution by Snarky+McButtface · · Score: 2

      It is already starting to bite them in the ass. In most third world countries the primary cause of death is infectious disease and in most developed countries it is heart disease. In China it is cancer.

    6. Re:Yet another obvious solution by Solandri · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Everyone else in the world will have tapped out all of their resources and we will be left with ours. We will be left with our Oil and our Rare Earths because the EPA stuck it's nose in. When it matters, WE will be the ones that are self sufficient.

      Unless something happens like happened to aluminum. At one point it was one of, if not the, most difficult metals to refine, and was worth more than gold or in some cases platinum. Then over the span of about a year, a couple people developed a new method of refining it. The price crashed to where, while still more expensive than other metals, is so cheap that we throw away cans and foil made out of it.

      If there's a fusion breakthrough, oil prices will crash within a year or two. Rare earths are actually not that rare, they just take a lot of work to refine. If some new, cheaper method of refining them is invented, any vast reserves of them that we are hoarding could become worthless overnight.

      Pass environmental laws because you want to protect the environment. Not because you want to gamble that a material will become rarer and more desirable in the future, under the guise of "planning ahead". If you really think the gamble is worth it, then be forthcoming and advocate planning ahead and conserving those supplies for exactly that reason (e.g. helium). Don't try to spin it as justification for environmental laws or vice versa.

  4. dead man walking by lophophore · · Score: 2

    Rotating media is heading the way of the CRT. This will just accelerate the switch to SSD and whatever's next.

    --
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    1. Re:dead man walking by dgatwood · · Score: 2

      SSDs are at or around a dollar per gigabyte. That's only running about six years behind the price of hard drives. In those six years, hard drive prices have dropped by a factor of ten. In the past three years, solid state disks have dropped by more than a factor of twenty. Thus, SSDs are dropping in price more than four times as fast as hard drives. If we extrapolate that into the future, the current order of magnitude will go away in about seven or eight years without this added burden on hard drives.

      More importantly, however, most users don't need a terabyte drive in their laptops. (I already have one, and most other folks don't need nearly that much capacity.) For most folks, the question is therefore not when the cost per GB gets low enough, but rather whether they can get something big enough for a hundred bucks or less. Adding ten bucks to the base price on hard drives brings them a lot closer to the base price for SSDs.

      Finally, a bump of 10% in rotating media won't make them equal, but it is important to note that this is a fixed cost being added to the cost of hard drive manufacturing, independent of capacity. Thus, there will always be this artificial floor propping up the price—a floor that SSDs won't have.

      --

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    2. Re:dead man walking by amorsen · · Score: 2

      The SSD's that were $1/GB in 2008 were total crap though. Often slower than regular hard drives, even for random access.

      Intel's X25-M arrived late 2008 at around $600 pr 80GB.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
  5. 5% increase on hard drives... by sdguero · · Score: 3, Funny

    Oh no! My next 3 TB drive is going to cost $105 instead of $100. The sky is falling!

    Pffft. This isn't news worthy.

  6. inquiring mind I see... by Lead+Butthead · · Score: 2

    How the fuck do they work?

    You too, shall be honored to experience Alex Chiu's [burning sarcasm]miraculous discovery.[/burning sarcasm]
    (sorry, but you asked. yes, I am kidding.)

    --
    ELOI, ELOI, LAMA SABACHTHANI!?
    1. Re:inquiring mind I see... by retchdog · · Score: 3, Funny

      why do i even bother trying to make an honest living...

      --
      "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
  7. Re:Too important by kurt555gs · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Right now Hybrid vehicles either use brushless DC or permeant magnet excited AC motors. Both need rare earth magnets and neither are as powerful or efficient for their application as switched reluctance motors which do not use magnets at all. If the electric auto industry was innovative, they would all be using switched reluctance motors and China could eat their rare earth magnets.

    My guess is a swamp of patents by Toyota that keep them in the dark ages so they can protect their IP.

    --
    * Carthago Delenda Est *
  8. Most HDDs are Made in China by Quantum_Infinity · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Aren't most HDDs made in China? So how does cutting export of rare earth metals make a difference?

  9. Recycling? by pjwhite · · Score: 3

    With all the old hard drives that wear out or become obsolete, I wonder if there is any effort being put into recycling the rare earth magnets they contain, or if old drives are just dumped by the ton into landfills.

    1. Re:Recycling? by krray · · Score: 2

      Well .. *I* have recycled my old hard drives... The magnets in server class hard drives are phenomenal. They make absolutely wonderful tool holders -- as long as the tool can become magnetized (and they do) without being a problem for you. You find yourself buying metal things just so you can hang them up easily... :)

  10. Tempest in a Teapot... by Genda · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The Chinese will mess with the price of Rare Earths (which are not really all that rare) and the US will almost certainly begin using its own from a major find in California. All the while Austrailia, Japan, Africa and South America look at seriously developing their resources. The real lock China has on Rare Earths is its processing (pretty much the only game in town right now.) Here's a chance for the U.S. to get back into industrial jobs (god forbid) and produce a lasting job base for a new global economic boom in the rare earth arena. The Chinese advantage is short term, and if they squeeze too hard, the world will simply take their business away. Nobody likes a chiseler.

    By the way rare earths are used all over the place and for a dizzying array of things. There are about 400 lbs of them in a late model Prius. They are used in virtually all green tech (high performance generators in modern wind mills are pretty much sluggs of rare earths.) Colorful plasma and LED displays use them (that cool display on your smart phone is probably chock full of rare earths.) Florescent lighting that is any color but off green uses rare earth mixed in with the coating. Rare earths are used in glass making, advanced textiles, plastics with special properties (OLEDs), and anything that uses an enhanced magnetic field from an earbud to an mag-lev train. Even the "Euro" contains a trace of Europium as an elemental pun. Modern society runs on rare earths.

  11. Re:no need for guaranteed purchase by HornWumpus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Isn't there a desolate, almost uninhabited desert in Peru just off the Pacific Ocean?

    Aren't they pretty desperate?

    Comes down to energy to run desalination to supply the water and political stability. Nice earthquake area so good fun for all, lets build a nuke or four to run the thing. Prove a modern nuke can run through a 8. Nobody but employees/contractors for a hundred miles. Show those Chinese how we do it the American way.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  12. Re:Too important by ColdWetDog · · Score: 3, Funny

    I don't want any kind of 'reluctance' motor in my car, switched or otherwise.

    When I step on the pedal, I want the damn thing to go, not to complain about the traffic or the pollution or how much weight I've stuffed in the car.

    --
    Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
  13. Re:Too important by MechaStreisand · · Score: 2

    Are you saying that the automotive industry is... reluctant to switch to those motors?

    *puts on sunglasses*

    --
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