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Sluggish Android Tablet Growth May Give Microsoft an Opening
theodp writes "In NASCAR, you can finish a race in the Top 3 by leading the whole way or by having spectacular crashes take out those ahead of you. The same may hold true for the tablet race, where Apple has led the whole way, but Microsoft could advance into 2nd or 3rd place as those once ahead of it crash and burn. 'Microsoft tablets based on Windows 8 won't be ready until next year,' notes SplatF's Dan Frommer. 'Unexpectedly, that might not be too late to matter.' Far-fetched as it may seem, Ars Technica's Peter Bright explains why the Windows 8 tablet invasion might work."
Could we see something similar in 2012 between 'Jean Girard' Jobs and 'Ricky Bobby' Ballmer?
No. 2012 is not the year that the final decision on tablets will be made. Just a little insight for ya', but Android is not going to sit idly by and wait a few years before finding and growing their niche in the tablet market. That kind of strategy may work for companies that think they can't fail because they have a large enough war chest to survive a war of competitive attrition, but Android isn't a sloth-like, relatively static codebase that's hoping others die before stepping in. And let's not forget that given another year Apple will have their next iPad on the market (and who knows what else). Apple is trying to create dependancies between its phone, tablet and entertainment products much the same way that MS made Windows + Office a dominant combination. Until MS can enter the market with strong ties and motivation for users to buy multiple MS phones, tablets and other entertainment products they will not be "racing to the finish line" with Apple, Android and whoever else jumps into the marketplace.
FIRE SALE! $99 for the 16gb model, and $149 for the 32gb model. I guess HP finally found a way to sell them.
Even Microsofties are now saying "Wait for the unified world of WP8".
In the meantime, Apple continues to sell every tablet they can make, no discounting.
And Android smartphones outsell everyone else.
The "Unified world" will be a divided one - Android smartphones and tablets, and Apple smartphones and tablets. There is no room for a #3 (just like on the desktop, or we would have had a "year of the linux desktop" already) unless you consider < 1% to be "success".
Car analogies in the summaries so you wont have to go to the comments section to understand TFA.
It's not impossible that this happens.
But, seriously, I wouldn't hold my breath neither.
On the other news, maybe a meteor hits Earth in 2012, saving the Tech Industry from fulfilling his foresights...
Lisias@Earth.SolarSystem.OrionArm.MilkyWay.Local.Virgo.Universe.org
That is, previous MS entries into the tablet realm have failed largely because tablet support was added to Windows as an after thought. MS tablet users had to use the Windows paradigm with support for a touch screen, stylus, handwriting recognition, etc. bolted on after the fact. This made for a crappy user experience. Palm and Apple both understood from the get go with their Palm Pilot and Newton lines that took the tablet paradigm as being central to the user interface. Android and iOS maintain that paradigm.
It's possible that MS might finally get it with Windows 8. Their future success or failure will depend on this far more so than any of the other factors that TFA bring up.
The rest of the article was mostly dreck that seems to assume that most tablet and PC users are power users.
Different applications, different strengths, different weaknesses.
Yes, they do differ - Android has all the strengths and WP7 has all the weaknesses
(Seriously, no multi-tasking? No programs can run in the background and notify the user when something happens? "Tiles" are laughable replacements for notification icons)
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
No, get this straight - Android devs should be able to load paid apps onto the default marketplace for apps.
Its all about the developers. MS right now has a weak (from a technical point of view anyway - perhaps the aesthetics are better) platform, with very little technical merit to it. But if the choices are "Sell software on a weak platform", "Give away software on a strong platform", or "find another job", the WP7 and iOS platforms already look better.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Of 15 people that work on my floor at my employer, 3 have iPads. On the bus to and from work, it's rare that there is not at least one person using an e-Reader or a tablet of some sort.
Just look at sales figures. Apple is selling iPads as fast as they can make them. At the Apple Store by my work, the days that new iPads come in, there is always a line out front before the store opens for the day.
RIM Still exists at least for now. Thus the vendor count is currently 4.
What do you mean? I see apps with price on the default app store on my Galaxy S, do you mean that this isn't the default apps store? Because I have not added anything. And it doesn't matter if that other platform might look better for the dev who want's to make money, it's all about which platform that looks better for the consumer and if an equal app is available on the free apps market then guess what happens (since in order for your theory to work there has to be a free alternative to the app in question, otherwise there would of course not be an argument over price)!
As far as tablets go, there has yet to be a well designed third option. Once one hits, then we'll see how it plays out. Until then, that there are only two large players (Google and Apple) is really just a function of only two tablet software providers delivering a good enough product.
Yes, you see paid apps in the store, but not all devs are allowed to put paid apps in the store. A minority of countries are allowed. Not many. So, developers who want to get paid for their time have to either do iOS or WP7 apps, as those allow almost anyone to put paid apps in the store.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
My previous job had a stack of iPads to lend out for meetings or whatever and I see a lot of people with tablets on the train. They use them mainly for reading and games so arguably they're just glorified kindles but they are buying them and they probably do better with public transportation users than anyone else or so I would believe form my experience. I think the reason you don't see everyone with one is because sadly there is really only one worth buying, the iPad, and not everyone is going to fork the cash over for one.
You're forgetting about Microsoft employees who won't have a choice.
If Microsoft is clever, it can get the market for paranoid people. Both Apple and Google have a reputation to collect data about their customers. If Microsoft can credibly make their offering more privacy-compatible, they might have an edge.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
RIM is one step above irrelevance. They're ripe for a takeover bid so one of the big players can scarf up all their patents. While technically accurate, there really are only 3 real players in the market
If it was better for games and not from Apple then I'm all for it.
Though if it's simple games I don't see why they shouldn't be web apps.
If they are complicated with advanced graphics and such then I could see how Microsoft could one-up especially Android.
And you ignore the benefit of having advertising in your app and hence making money like that.
Seven Days with Ubuntu Unity
But why should one go to WP7 if he can get in a much larger market on iOS?
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
WARNING: what follows is the opinion of someone who has no intention of buying a tablet and has not used a smart phone for over a decade!
It assumes that there is actually more demand out there for tablets, only that the Android tablets just aren't good enough in the eyes of consumers to satisfy that demand. However, it could also be that Google's products are among the best around, but that there just isn't enough demand for tablets in general. I can imagine the latter being closer to the truth, in which case any M$ offer would probably do worse (they're incapable of making anything trendy anyway). After all, tablets are too large and unwieldy to compete with smart phones, while they don't have any killer apps either to set them apart from smart phones on the one hand, and laptops and PCs on the other. So far, tablets just seem to be rather like smart phones, except with bigger screens (the main attraction) and without the phone. They seem to me to be yet another gadget looking for a reason to exist -- as opposed to a novel solution to an actual problem.
And you ignore the benefit of having advertising in your app and hence making money like that.
Not everyone's dream is to be a conduit for advertising, and not everyone wants an ad-supported product. In fact, most devs just want to do development, and plenty of people are willing to pay for an ad-free product.
It's unreasonable to ask that devs do more work, open their app UI to a third party *and* waste their users bandwidth simply because they aren't allowed to sell the naked app as it is.
IOW, Google shouldn't be putting up hurdles for no good reason. FWIW, I'd prefer Android development over any of the competition, but why bother if the other platform lets me sell the app but the android platform forces me to give it away and hope that annoying the user with advertisements would make me money.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
But why should one go to WP7 if he can get in a much larger market on iOS?
None whatsoever, in fact I'd personally prefer to go with iOS if android is not available. WP7 has some severe limitations.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Microsoft victorious entrance into the new age of tablets will be MS Office for iOS :)
I think that the wild-fire over tablets has already spread and burned out. Many many people have tried tablets and didn't like them not because they didn't perform in some way, not because of "compatibility" with something or other, but because they have limited uses. Tablets are good eye candy and are good for data output, but not so much for input and that's where a lot of usability drops. (Those cases with bluetooth keyboards are a nice addition though... Put me down for one when they create a case with a cabled keyboard to save battery.)
I like tablets... I like android tablets. But I think that the market is just about over their initial curiosity of them. If they become useful outside of reading books or watching web sites, then I can expect to see more development of these things. Otherwise, phone-sized devices are best.
This iPad I'm holding is the most elegant computing device I have ever laid my hands on. Everything just flows. It doesn't do everything but for what it does do, the thing is positively addictive. I have a Xoom too and it has some capabilities the iPad doesn't, especially the built in Google stuff is much better than the iPad versions. I'm expecting ice-cream sandwich to match the elegance of the iPad and when it does, there will be two top notch contenders in the marketplace. To specifically address your point, you may not be seeing tablets yet but that probably has something to do with the price for good ones still being somewhat in the luxury realm. When that drops, and it will, expect to see more tablets than anything else.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
I haven't used any Windows version Microsoft released in the last decade, so maybe I'm missing something. But I thought that apart from registration (which you can do per phone as well, if you prefer) and Windows Update (which you can switch off if you really want), there was no data exchange with Microsoft (unless you explicitly initiate one, of course).
Oh, and about why my PC (running Linux) phones home every day: It looks into the repositories for updates. And yes, this probably gives the repository server owner more information than Windows Update, because almost all software running on my computer was installed from the repository.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
"In NASCAR, you can finish a race in the Top 3 by leading the whole way or by having spectacular crashes take out those ahead of you
Of course in NASCAR, unless you are there at the start of the race, you aren't even in the race, regardless of how fast your car is, regardless of how skilled your driver is and regardless of how many people crash.
The story says if some one ahead of windows crashes and burns Microsoft might be in for a chance at 2nd or 3rd. Isn't Microsoft already at least in 3rd position, i know everybody whinges about convertible tablets (even though wacom stylus is the bomb) but their is a fair few out there. This is hardly the wild out there cutting edge prediction this guy thinks it is, he is just stating the obvious, what else would happen.
Rocket Surgeon.
IOW, Google shouldn't be putting up hurdles for no good reason.
Might the cost of complying with 200 different countries' censorship and tax codes be a good reason?
Nope - all the other companies are able to do it, even tiny ones that are essentially YetAnotherAndroidMarket can make payments to me. If MS, Apple, Amazon, Paypal and a plethora of others are able to do it, then Google has no reason.
Especially as they have local offices in my country (AFAIK).
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Though if it's simple games I don't see why they shouldn't be web apps.
Probably because web applications don't run on zero bars of signal unless they're tiny enough to fit into the storage limit for the device's application cache, which on an iPad appears to be as small as 5 MB. A passenger with a Wi-Fi tablet in a vehicle has no Internet connection but can still run native applications.
You buy your Apple ties between products and five of the same phone and I'll pick the best product for the task instead.
Why is that not the device with the widest range of applications to perform the task?
In the end software trumps hardware.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
RIM Still exists at least for now.
On tablets?
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
Put me down for one when they create a case with a cabled keyboard to save battery.
ASUS Eee Pad Transformer is an Android tablet with a removable keyboard dock, and it starts at $550 or so.
Playbook?
:-)
*waits for the laughter to die down
Thank you thank you, don't forget to tip your waiter
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
I never see people sitting outdoors using them. I never see people using them while eating lunch or drinking coffee. I never see people using them at my workplace. I never see people using them at the offices of the other companies I visit.
Just guessing, but is braille a significant part of your life?
Your companies sales reps probably hate the tablets
I'm sorry the reps you've dealt with are having such a hard time. And you're right, it is always possible that mine are blowing smoke when they say they like our system. Consider this though, our tablets are completely optional. We still print paper catalogs, and accept faxed in orders. We have to keep that legacy system since we work with independent sales group companies, we have a website that is actually slightly more up to date (24 hours) than what is on the tablet, and we have an FTP server that hosts all of our catalog pages in PDF form. Despite all of this, I'd say 90 percent of our people use the tablets exclusively.
I wrote the software so let me tell you what problems it solves for them. First of all, we carry upwards of 6000 products (sports apparel and knick knacks) and keeping up with what is in stock, out of stock, etc. On a daily basis with a printed catalog is a nightmare. There is nothing worse than selling a product, having the customer mentally set aside the cash then having to tell them you can't ship that product. With the tablet, they download a diff nightly that is about 6 megabytes and the problem is solved. Also, in the fashion game, trends happen fast then they're gone. Our largest seller this season has been Ugg style boots with various team logos on them. With the tablet, you know what is new and you know it now. There is an icon on the main screen labeled "new products" and another one labeled "best sellers" both automatically generated when the database difff is respun every night. You don't get that with a printed catalog. The tablets are much faster and lighter too. Imagine a 3 ring binder with a thousand pages. Now imagine a stack of them. Now replace that with a 1.5 pound electronic gizmo.
next consider doing the math on an order. Tablet does it for you. Customer database and autofill? Tablet has that. Automatic filing of orders and customer receipt? Tablet. What has this customer bought before? What is their average purchase? When was I here last? Tablet. Tablet. Tablet.
and the bottom line? The customers love it and the spend more money!
So, when can I sign you up? :)
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
Tablets are too expensive.
That should explain why, for the most part. People don't know that they exist. If it wasn't for sites like slashdot I'd not know either.
Ask those around you about why they have not chosen to buy one.
I own two tablets. I use them every day. But I search for other things to do with them. The software just isn't there. Lack of software and high costs are the major stumbling blocks to adoption.
A buddy bought one shortly after I did. Turns out he bought one for his wife also.
Word gets around.
You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
Your question would have more credibility if it ended "Posted from my iPad" or "Posted from my Xoom!" or whatever.
I only know one person who's bought a tablet-style computer (a real computer, not a tablet, but a portable computer with a touch screen and detachable keyboard). It's not even on the radar for most people. They have a computer kicking around somewhere, and that's their version of "good enough 'puting". For anything else, they have a phone.
The people making all the hype are the web shops trying to sell customers on "increase your market penetration by developing for tablets!" It's replaced "let us optimize your site to game the search engines" SEO crap.
What people really want is a laptop-sized tablet with all the electronics built into the screen, a flip-down stand, a remote, a detachable or blutooth keyboard and mouse, a full operating system, and the ability to plug in a second display to stretch the desktop, so they can treat it like any other computer when they want to, or use the touch screen when that's all they need to use is a "tablet computer".
Or has everyone already forgotten the collective disappointment when they found out that the iPad ran IOS and not Darwin?
Think of what you could do with something like that with a 17" display that weighed less than a conventional 15" laptop and displayed full 1920 hd.
Android rules phones. Apple rules tablets. And Microsoft rules desktops. Quibble about the exact numbers or satisfaction of users, but that's the basic reality today.
All three are making plays to get more dominant in someone else's kingdom. But the two desktop contenders: Apple and Microsoft may be trying to go for a unified platform too early. Do users really want to select cell G7 in Excel on their phone under Windows 8? And certainly Apple users haven't been completely happy with trends coming the other way with the iOS-ification of Lion. This may be a huge mistake to aim for unity between desktop and mobile so early. A unified platform that's compromised stinks on all platforms.
There are advantages for a unified OS to the OS vendor and programmers, but for the user it still isn't clear. That conservative stance will actually help Android in the short term; the attempts to advance are hurting rather than helping MS and Apple right now. On the other hand, if Microsoft or Apple finds that advantage / leverage it could be very bad news for Android that's "only" a mobile platform. Android will be be quickly leveraged to the back of the pack. Short term: this is a liability to aim for unity so early, but it does make me a little nervous when considering the longer term these OS battles are fought that Android is relying on no such advantage being found.
Still nothing will be "decided" with the release of the IPhone 5, windows 8, or the next Ice Cream Tablet. This is a three horse race for three kingdoms over the long haul and all I can say is that this next year will be a very interesting seventh lap rather than the finish line for anyone.
Total bullshit.
More likely they can't express how much, in words, that they like them, even for sales reps.
You have no clue how easy it is to show what you are doing to someone watching on one, nor how bad it used to be to drag around a huge laptop while trying to find a spot to set the boat anchor down just to demo something.
And tablets are very fast. They are also buggy, every one, but still highly useable.
You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
Not only colors. Wii games generally have a softer approach than their cousins on other platforms. There certainly is a more gay-like feeling to them. It's hard to describe accurately.
Google cannot hope to stay relevant if all it allows from the majority of devs are free apps on its market, and since most users don't care to load other markets, devs aren't going to bother with a platform that doesn't let them sell.
Wow! Are you kidding me?
Google doesn't ALLOW devs. to get paid for their work?!?
If Apple did this, Slashdotters would be in the streets with pitchforks and torches.
IOW, Google shouldn't be putting up hurdles for no good reason.
Might the cost of complying with 200 different countries' censorship and tax codes be a good reason?
Oh, cry me a river! Either Google wants to play in the street with the big dogs, or they need to stay on the porch.
Google cannot hope to stay relevant if all it allows from the majority of devs are free apps on its market, and since most users don't care to load other markets, devs aren't going to bother with a platform that doesn't let them sell.
Wow! Are you kidding me?
I don't kid.
;-)
And don't call me Wow!
Google doesn't ALLOW devs. to get paid for their work?!?
Not unless you're part of a select group of countries. Link to my blog and spread the word. I'm seemingly the only android dev who isn't blinded by fanboyism to the point that I'd keep quiet about it. No one else is making this an issue, and until it becomes news, google aren't likely to fix the issue. :-)). Searching the 'net shows that no one else apparently cares about this, which makes me think twice about which platform I should be targetting.
My Blog Takes A Stand (or something
Frankly, if Apple weren't such douchebags themselves, I'd target their platform much more quickly. Apple won't even answer your questions until you pay them a $99 fee.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
I live in the DC metropolitan area.
Exactly. Tiny companies don't have to have a team of lawyers making sure they don't come remotely cloast ot breaking the lay in the 200+ countries they work in, whereas if XYZ app store did, I doubt anyone would notice. This is Google we're talking about. If it breaks the law it WILL get caught.
This has little to do with tablets. Your comments apply to android phones, as the majority of sales are to phone users.
You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
Okay, that explains it - tiny companies don't care about dodging tax authorities. What about Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Paypal? Are they dodging too? FWIW, I checked with the local tax authorities, and there is no problem, we have a tax-treaty with the US, which is how MS, Amazon and the rest are able to make payments to us.
Google very literally doesn't have an excuse for their position. Even if they themselves could not do it, they should at least allow devs to receive payments via paypal. They don't.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
You can't be serious?
Microsoft already has a failed developer-friendly Application Store. It simply isnt enough to be developer friendly..
The middle man can chant "developers developers developers!" but the developers are chanting "customers customers customers!" and the customers are chanting "applications applications applications!"
This circle-jerk be bootstrapped... but not simply by being developer friendly. The easiest way is to guarantee lots of customers into the system right from the get-go... the developers will show up in droves when you can do this, which is what both Apple and then Google were successfully able to achieve. Microsoft is ineffective at this strategy because they do not know how to generate real consumer anticipation. Nobody lined up to buy a WinMo 7 phone on opening day, and developers also didnt expect people to do so.
"His name was James Damore."
What people really want is a laptop-sized tablet with all the electronics built into the screen, a flip-down stand, a remote, a detachable or blutooth keyboard and mouse, a full operating system, and the ability to plug in a second display to stretch the desktop, so they can treat it like any other computer when they want to, or use the touch screen when that's all they need to use is a "tablet computer".
that device has been on the market for decades in various iterations and been a spectacular failure to consumers. The iPad came out and has completely dominated the tablet space by being precisely the opposite of what you outline here. I think you are confusing what us geeks want with what the other 99 percent of people will actually buy.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
But with the Nook Color, people figured out that e-Readers were also tablet computers. Not to mention the e-Reading capabilities of tablets and smartphones. I don't think my wife has picked up a hardback book since I pointed out that she could read anything the library offers in electronic format on her Android phone.
Their specialization is perhaps akin to the specialization early on in the PC industry. People in certain film/audio industries bought an Amiga while people who needed spreadsheets bought an IBM compatible PC. It's not that one can't do the job of the other but that some tasks are easier (or more enjoyable) on one over the other.
What are you saying? That tablets don't matter? Then whats all the fuss about?
I feel they do matter, and I am not alone. Google needs to get their act together. I want to develop exclusively for Android, but I don't care much for exploring innovative and novel marketing techniques in the form of advertising, selling services, etc. I want to sell software, and they won't let me do so on their store.
I don't want to sell advertising, and I'm not alone.
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Nope. It phones home with identifying info regularly.. And their systems have been collecting wifi and cellular data for a long time. You can read about their exploits in the recent news.
You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
I use the Eee Pad instead of a laptop or netbook.
With the dock, it's a fully functional Android netbook with an actual keyboard and extended battery life. Take it out of the dock, it's a tablet with a multi touch touch screen, and here's the big difference with an ordinary netbook: it goes about a full day of use or a week of casual use between recharges.
have you noticed ARM SoC vendors talking about their new multi-core chips and how they include "Windows" in their press releases when they talk about their usage? That's right, Windows is still bloated and will require lots of CPU power to run so they are all rushing to get some of the money Microsoft will pay them to make chips to float that tank.
The problem is right in front of the article authors face but is missed. Windows is bloated and requires extra hardware and extra battery and therefore extra weight. From Windows for Pen Computing to the XP versions Bill Gates claimed were the future they all required bulky hardware and has short battery life. Today, the iPad, Android devices and ebook readers all have very good battery life _and_ are light weight and small/thin so they are easily portable. With Windows 8 still requiring much more hardware and battery power than existing OS's how does this tank float when it has sunk over and over previously? And a different user interface does not solve that problem even if it gives them a marketing gimmick to once again claim the "ground up rewrite". IMO
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
What I described needed significant advances in hardware to actually be useable. One of my friends, who is far from being a geek (he won't even buy a cell phone) just bought a real tablet computer, complete with touchscreen, detachable keyboard and stylus, and he loves it. He would never buy an iPad or even an android-based tablet computer. He wants to be able to run "real software." Just like the majority of the population (or they wouldn't own a laptop or desktop in the first place, right?)
Last Week: Android has 20% of the tablet market!!!
This Week: Android Sales are Sluggish!!
Seriously, all this marketing psycho-babble is really starting to confuse me.
The real Sig captains the Northwestern. This one captains
The point the article seemingly misses is that "the market entry remained slight" for Windows Tablet Edition for a very specific reason. It SUCKED. XP Tablet Edition sucked. Windows 7 Tablet Edition continues to suck. And just parenthetically, Windows CE sucked and every mobile platform ever based on it sucked. Now, I'm writing this on a Windows 7 PC, and it doesn't suck. This is Microsoft's strength, they've gotten good at it, and the hardware industry has finally caught up to the point where even with all the software bloat from the last two decades it still doesn't perform too badly.
But tablets? Phones? Some unified Windows that's supposed to run everywhere, WELL? There's a whole bunch of people out there, myself included, who have several devices in the junk drawer, nothing wrong with them functionally, except in usage they're painful and frustrating and try to force you into KVM paradigms not appropriate for a non-PC. Not to mention reusing very old code stacks that drag down the performance of already underpowered devices. And don't get me started on "This application has caused an error and has to close" popups ... on a PHONE. Where was I? Oh yeah, so we've got these devices we've already tried, and throughout that long and arduous experience, Microsoft has TAUGHT US that any mobile device running their code is going to take more effort to get the job done than just about any other platform. I won't be touching another one unless the company I work for makes it a job requirement. And right now they're in love with the iPad so I think I'm safe.
And just incidentally, "handwriting recognition has been improved" is by itself an absolute indicator that M$ still doesn't Get It. This is not the 1980's and the Newton is no longer the platform to beat. If you touch a text area, a virtual keyboard should pop up that DOESN'T COVER THE TEXT AREA. The fact that after two decades they still did not understand this means to me that Windows 8, when people start actually using it, will illustrate a bunch of other stuff they don't understand.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
Its not as crazy as it sounds. A version of powerpoint that would work with an android phone would be a fantastic application.
Imagine a scaled down version of Microsoft publisher for android tablets. If I were in charge of Microsoft, I would
create an entire division for Android mobile apps. Why do they even need windows phone, its reinventing the wheel.
Microsoft Office is the moneymaker not windows itself. I cant imagine why Microsoft wouldnt create a version
of Office for Android(with file compatibility with Windows).
The only problem is that they would probably need a new ceo to figure that out.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
so you're posting using a toy?
LoB
"Anyone who stands out in the middle of a road looks like roadkill to me." --Linus
A tablet is fine for very light use. Generally these are the people for whom you wonder why they even bother with a PC to begin with. These people are the real market for tablets. They are the people for which a PC is not really the right device.
The need a scooter rather than a real car.
A PC is not a truck. It's a sedan and a tablet is a scooter.
A Pirate and a Puritan look the same on a balance sheet.
Here's how new sales currently break down:
Android: 48%
IOS: 19%
RIM: Who cares any more? We just want to know who's going to buy them.
WebOS: Oops!
WP7: Rounding error.
Android is getting over half a million activations a day, and that number is increasing by 5.5% every month. You might consider it a bad thing, but people must like the wide choice of Android devices available if they're snapping them up in such volume.
The main reason MS tablets never sold was one reason.
Price.
Who was going to by a Tablet PC when they were priced equal or more (sometimes twice as more) to a laptop offering. Even Origami UMPC's when they came out were one of the cheapest tablets out there, but at over $700 with only 1 hour battery life and laptops hovering around or below that price, it was doomed. The only saving grace that came out of UMPC's were netbooks, and they sold primarily on price, with most of them priced well under $400.
What really gets me is that the current Android tablet market is making the same mistake. They're trying to command IPad pricing without being an Apple product. ICultists wont touch it with a 10 foot pole at any price because it's not made by Apple and everyone else that's on the fence is going to see the identical price and buy the Ipad because either they saw it on TV more / their ICult buddy recommended it and since they're priced the same might as well get what everyone else is talking about. This HP Touchpad Fire sale is the best lesson any tablet manufacture should learn when it comes to tablet sales. HP goes out and announces that WebOS hardware is dead, lets it sink in for a day or two, then cuts the price down from $399 and $499 to $99 and $149 respectfully and sells out in hours even though everyone knows they're discontinued and WebOS has a shaky future if any. If that doesn't scream that the tablet was overpriced than nothing on earth will.
Non Apple Tables are priced roughly $200-300 too expensive. Get them around $199-$299 and they'll sell like gangbusters just like it did for Android phones in the mobile market. The same goes for Windows 8. If they can't get a Windows 8 Tablet at least under $299 at launch then Microsoft is just wasting their resources and time on something that will never be more than an niche product.
In Soviet Russia, Trojan exploits YOU!
No, iPads are around the same price as the Android tablets.
Unless you count cheap, plastic, resistive-screen Chinese jobs running (nay, walking) Android 1.6 or 1.7 as "Android tablets".
The Acer Iconia is $399. 10 inch, dual core, fast, Honeycomb, etc. Ipad2 starts at $499. Sure, that's only a $100 difference, but that's a real difference to a lot of people.
We're probably going to see a $350-$299 Honeycomb dualcore tablets by Xmas, which will be on par with the current ipad2 and be behind the rumored ipad3. I think $299 is the magic price point where Joe Casual will blow some cash on one. That's my own personal price point and consider $299 for a Honeycomb table to be a reasonable purchase to replace my current ebook reader.
Microsoft technically was at the starting line.
It's actually a 2-way matchup: Android vs. Windows. Apple doesn't want to be #1. They're married to their high-margin boutique business model and the really big market numbers are for low-cost items where Apple can't outgun the entire rest of the hardware industry. Android aspires to the mass market but faces several very real perils from different directions right now (e.g. fragmentation, no control over the total experience, the patent war isn't over yet, ridiculous process for pushing updates, problems with partners due to the Motorola deal, inconsistent Marketplace App quality, etc.), so odds are very good that Google will fumble one or more of those... at which point Windows will be waiting, with nowhere to go but up.
The question will then be whether Windows is ready to pursue the advantage. Um, make that "ready enough" since we're discussing a Microsoft product.
Remember that Microsoft's biggest cash cows (Windows NT family, Excel, Word) were once distant also-rans (vs. Novell, Lotus, Word Perfect) that ended up being the last man standing. Admittedly, Microsoft wasn't above pursuing their advantage whenever their competitors faltered, but mainly they just kept ratcheting up their products + marketing and watched the others screw up. XBox, Exchange Server & a bunch of others also come to mind. Oh, and Bing: it's solidly #2 now that Yahoo has fallen, though they're still way behind Google.
Of course Microsoft have also had many failures (hell, they completely blew Hotmail's #1 spot), especially recently, but the tablet OS business is no sideshow: they well know it's do or die for them. They will use their biggest guns (they still have plenty) to make their OS attractive by sheer effort and perseverence, even if it costs billions, takes 2 more versions of Windows, and they have to bribe every 3rd party developer + device maker on the planet. They wrote the book on how this is done and they won't run out of money in the meanwhile.
It was when Microsoft launched the Zune. We kept reading articles about how Zune sales were meeting all of Microsoft's expectations, and how it quickly shot up until it was outselling all other non-Apple portable music players. Heck, there was even a time when the Zune supposedly outsold the iPod. Oh, and of course there was the "never count out Microsoft" crowd. Yeah, the Zune did really well... right up until they stopped making them.
More recently, we've heard similar things about Windows Phone 7 devices. Microsoft may have a bit more leverage here moving forward *cough*Nokia*cough*, but so far it hasn't added up to much.
In a lot of ways, Microsoft's past monopolistic behavior has turned around to bite itself in the butt - it's forgotten how to compete, and it still hasn't demonstrated it really understands anything but PCs (the XBox 360 seems to be the exception that proves the rule). So while it might be possible there's an opening in the tablet marketplace, it remains to be seen whether Microsoft is the company that can take advantage of it.
#DeleteChrome
Who looks at a market where an incumbent is decimating the competition and thinks "this is the perfect point for us to throw our hat in the ring"? Android was supposed have buried the iPad by spring of this year. The Touchpad was evidence that Apple would soon be elevated to niche status. And yet here we are...
Fiat Homos et Pereat Theos
Awesome! Proof that android shipments = android sales!
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
Then how come so many people buy them and then they just fall out of sight?
Considering the popularity of these devices, that is an extraordinary claim. What evidence do you have to back it up?
What I described needed significant advances in hardware to actually be useable.
No hardware advance can make up for the lack of touch based software in the windows ecosystem.
One of my friends, who is far from being a geek (he won't even buy a cell phone) just bought a real tablet computer, complete with touchscreen, detachable keyboard and stylus, and he loves it. He would never buy an iPad or even an android-based tablet computer. He wants to be able to run "real software."
Cool story, "sis". :)
" Just like the majority of the population (or they wouldn't own a laptop or desktop in the first place, right?)
Almost every single person with a tablet also own a laptop. The use cases overlap in some ways but diverge in other significant ways thus the brisk sales of iPads.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
Because only 1% of all apps are any good.
That's exactly what I said, simply rephrased; for any task the best platform to choose is the one with the greatest choice in applications for a task you want to do - because as you said only 1% of applications will be any good (though I would argue on some platforms that percentage is higher than others).
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
I talking to an architect working in Beijing the other day. She said they keep an ipad in every room of their large office.
Tablets are going to catch on in the workplace, and the ones that lock down and integrate with corporate IT policies are going to be sold at profitable margins. HP could have aimed for that, but it's clearly in Microsoft's DNA. And clearly *not* in Apple's, despite the anecdote above.
Nobody has ever moved an operating system from mouse to touch. There is a first time for everything, but the two winning tablet OSs were designed for touch. I believe there is a reason: Turning a non-touch OS into a touch OS is harder than anyone doing it thinks it is.
Secondarily, I think this is what is holding back Web operating systems on touch devices. The Web wasn't designed for touch and Web operating systems "leak" bad user experience in from the non-touch Web. On Android and iOS touch devices, the Web browser is an ancillary UI and application environment, not the central part of the user experience.
I wrote parts of this stuff
Two thoughts about this:
1. Apple gradually lured people into the tablet world by giving the confidence to try out this new paradigm. They made great ipods for a couple of years, and blew people away with the user interface, the clever hardware (click wheel, etc.) and the smooth software experience. So when they came out with a phone, people were willing to try it, remembering the ipod. Then when it was clear the ipad was just a big iphone, people knew what to expect and had the confidence it would have a similar, good user interface and software experience. And that's largely been the case. Microsoft has done no such thing, and people have had enough desktop and Winphone horror stories to be suspicious that the Winpad is worth taking a chance on. Add to that the story of the Zune nobody wanted, and Microsoft has an uphill battle convincing people to take the splurge on a $600 Winpad. In the souring economy, people are going to be more cautious than ever.
2. What's the point of having a Winpad? Microsoft ruled the desktop because everybody wanted Word, Excel, and Power-gag-Point to work with. But those days are LONG over, and no one gets a boner over office software anymore. So what kind of software are they going to put on a WinPad to make you want to buy it? God help them if they try to get you excited about WinPad office apps. Their media player is so-so, they have nothing like iTunes, their photo software is mediocre, etc.etc. etc. In short, these are the Balmer days, and Microsoft under Balmer's leadership has been uninspired and uninspiring. Expect their WinPad to be the same, lacking any real software application worth buying the hardware to run (echoes of Balmer talking about how his Zune will "squirt" you a photo of his kids: "now that's a great user experience!"). Good luck, Balmer.
If this were Usenet, I'd killfile the lot of you.
You're describing how tablets are better than printed catalogs. How are they better than netbooks?
Capacitive multi-touch hi-res wide viewing angle screen is much easier for catalog navigtion. Longer battery life. Lighter weight. Integrated GPS and Google Maps navigation is a godsend for sales staff. Tablets are more visually impressive than staid old netbook. Can stand and use tablet. Always on device for catalog auto-updating, email, alerts, etc. Employees already have laptops. They can use them if they want. For some reason they don't.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
I don't want to sell advertising, and I'm not alone.
I suspect the trouble for you is that the intersection of a) Android developers who b) live in a country that Google won't send payments to, c) don't want to sell advertising, and d) won't set up a subsidiary or pay an escrow company to accept and forward payments from the US or Europe, is very small. Small enough that it probably doesn't make any kind of real difference to number of applications available for Android. Which means that if you're arguing that they're losing a lot of developers, you're taking the wrong tack, because they're not.
The iPad is currently selling like crazy, but they don't seem to have much day-to-day use. I've only seen ONE in actual use, and the person using it didn't look too comfortable trying to actually DO something with it, and I live in one of the 100 largest cities in the world.
Microsoft have been doing the tablet dance fo 10 years and have nothing to show for it, they've tried Windows 7 tablets and they are a joke, and the only thing Windows 8 has going for it is an UI based on a phone OS that is a year old and already losing Market share.
You have students, and you seem to think seeing more people writing in paper notebooks than using tablets in somehow a knock on tablets?
Do more people use pen and paper than netbooks in your classes? Does that damn netbooks to irrelevancy?
Five years ago far fewer people had smart phones, would a "I don't know anyone who has a smartphone" argument from back then seem prescient now?
Tablets will not be as common as smartphones, but they will be something you see more often. More often than netbooks, that is certain.
The killer app for tablets will be a good vpn/remote desktop system that is simple for users to install, and works through NAT. This will give users all the power of their how desktop, and the convenience of a tablet. Something like GoToMyPC but without the monthly fee.
that device has been on the market for decades in various iterations and been a spectacular failure to consumers.
Not really, no. For starters, most "tablet PCs" didn't have detachable keyboard - you could fold them so as to hide it, but it was still there, adding to the bulk and the weight. That's major flaw number one.
The major flaw number two is non-touch-centric UI in Windows. Sure, you could work in touchscreen mode - but you needed a stylus for any reasonable efficiency (because everything is so damn small!), and even then it's a chore.
GP is right - what we need is not a pure tablet, but something that can work as a tablet (and run software optimized for that mode), but which can also be quickly converted to a laptop by docking it to keyboard, and (the important part!) let you run common desktop software when thus converted. Hardware-wise we've already seen that this is quite possible, in Asus Transformer. The problem with Transformer is that it doesn't offer as much as it could in docked mode - you still run Android, and most Android apps still don't acknowledge the possibility of a full-fledged hardware keyboard or a touchpad (controlling an honest to god mouse cursor). At best you can tab around widgets, and use arrows and Shift to edit/select text - much like iPad with a keyboard dock (though Transformer's dock is much, much more convenient - I tried both). You can run Ubuntu in chroot, but you still need to connect to it via VNC, and no existing VNC client for Android works well with the touchpad.
Win8 will have something interesting to offer there - if you've seen the demos, it does offer WP7-style touch-centric UI, both for stock and for third-party apps; but you can also fall back to the traditional Win7-style desktop, and run software like Office there. If someone (Asus? Lenovo?) makes a device like Transformer that runs Win8, and automatically switches to classic desktop when it's docked, and to Metro touch UI when it's undocked, it could easily be a killer feature.
Come on over to the Eastern Shore where we are just getting optical mice. My boss "uses" an iPad and I just deployed two Galaxy Tab 10.1 for the warehouse, but I see them as a barely justifiable use cases where just about any other piece of technology could probably fill the role with extreme discomfort. Another employee uses a personal Transformer - but can't let go of Windows/Office and will never realize the device's full potential. All in all throughout my ownership experience I've found the current generation to be mediocre e-readers, pretty poor internet devices, obnoxious to hold... They're a long way from maturity. Also, Android should be dumped for ChromeOS.
You're confusing WP7 and Windows 8. They don't have anything in common - not even the kernel.
Not really, no
Strictly speaking from tomhudson's description, yes it has. She didn't specify a touch centric ui in tablet mode and whether a keyboard is detachable or separate is a technicality.
But, in my opinion, here is the real dilemma for Microsoft. Lets take the x86 tablets first. People are going to get these Windows 8 tablets and marvel at the desktop/tablet hybrid then they are going to install their legacy applications. They'll install iTunes, Photoshop, Chrome, quicken, bonzi buddy, etc. And they'll work great in desktop mode but that won't be good enough. They'll try to use them in tablet mode because no matter how many tablet media players, photo editors, etc. It will be a good while before they are as polished and mature as the old standbys. So people will inevitably try to use their old apps in tablet mode and get frustrated. Windows 8 gets a bad reputation as a tablet OS and joins it's predecessors in the long line of Windows tablet failure. As far as windows 8 on ARM goes, it will bomb because people will just buy the x86 version to run those legacy applications. It will be a vicious cycle that will leave people running to iPads for the by then even more mature touch centric ecosystem and windows for their laptop and desktops. Of course that's just my opinion and this was typed on an iPad.
The soylentnews experiment has been a dismal failure.
Your insane. Just WTF do you think your gonna do with Photoshop or Office on a tablet? It's interface is so crowded it's barely usable on a 19" display as it is. I could see quicken being of some use, but really, tablets are meant to be toys.
BTW, they made that happen years ago. They've been making touchscreen tablets for over a decade now with wireless keyboards and mice. It wasn't microsoft that made it happen, it was companies like Viewsonic.
Nobody wanted it then, what makes you think people want it now?
---------- Open Source is capitalism applied to IP.
I see many (as in 5+) each morning on the train into work (Brisbane, Australia). Mainly iPads, but some Android tablets too.
You know if I wanted a multi-tasking device whose battery dies out after 6 hours of use, I'd get an Android phone.
Oh wait I already have one.
Yes, I have a startup killer running.
Yes, I have wifi, bluetooth and GPS turned off.
No, I don't want to buy a second battery to carry it around.
Friends with Iphones are able to do the same as me and their phones don't die in the middle of the day.
This Slashdot story has been brought to you by the save Bill Gates' opinion foundation. From a time when Microsoft actually mattered.
"Computers are a lot like Air Conditioners" "They both work great until you start opening Windows"
And the Cubs are gonna win the world series ! I know it!
"Computers are a lot like Air Conditioners" "They both work great until you start opening Windows"
Firstly your confusing Windows Phone 7 with Windows 8. Secondly even Windows Phone 7 now has multitasking as of the RTM this month of there mango update.thirdly tiles do everything a notification icon does plus a lot more.
Just last night. Her flight came in at 1:20am.
Four or five people were dorking around on their iPads.
No one even remotely debunked it. Shipments ultimately result in sales. All companies count shipments. Every one in every market for every product. Android isn't failing to meet consumer demands nor needs. The HP Touchpad maybe is a failure but there is absolutely no evidence android fails in any measure.
You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
I said no such thing. My post spoke directly to the parent. His claim, as i pointed out, applies to all android devices, hence his failure to make a valid point.
You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
Contrast that with Android ACTIVATIONS of more than half a million a DAY.
WP7 is dead.
They would only be backordered if they were selling more iPads than they make.