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Michael Dell Dismisses Tablet Threat To the PC Market

Posted by Unknown on from the newton-shall-rise-again dept.

alphadogg writes with an excerpt from a Network World article: "The PC is not likely to be challenged by the tablet or the smartphone, and many users of the Internet on these devices will turn to the PC for a better experience, Michael Dell said in Bangalore on Monday. If you were going off to college and could only have one device, you would choose the PC over a smartphone or a tablet, said Dell, whose company also sells smartphones. 'If you could have two devices, then you would probably choose the phone before the tablet,' the Dell CEO added."

22 of 352 comments (clear)

  1. Also, if you owned Apple by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    You would probably want to shut it down and return the money to the stock holders.

    1. Re:Also, if you owned Apple by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And being average is why his company is now sinking.

    2. Re:Also, if you owned Apple by hairyfeet · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Not to mention how many CEOs had Bill Gates' home number and could call and say "Bill give me a hand" and actually have him do it? Oh Gates wasn't doing it to be nice for sure, he knew if Apple went tits up that antitrust was gonna rip him a new asshole, but despite the fact Apple guys HATE to admit this Gates really helped to calm the market and get developers back on board with Apple. Remember at that time the investors were shitting kittens and the stock was doing lousy thanks to all those "Is this the death of Apple?" stories being run at the time but when Gates showed up and said to the effect 'We believe Apple has a bright future so we are gonna invest in their stock and make sure Microsoft software is available to the Mac" a LOT of developers and investors said "Hey, if Gates thinks there is money to be made there maybe there is!". Of course the money was a pittance compared to what Apple had but it was the act that helped to calm the panicked market.

      As for TFA? anybody that says the tablet is gonna wipe out the PC has been slurping too much koolaid, it would be like saying 'This new moped will wipe out the trucking industry!" and is just as dumb. Wanna know why PC sales have slowed? Its because PCs have passed "good enough" several miles back and the simple fact is they are now insanely overpowered compared to most of the jobs folks have. I got rid of my full size laptop for a $350 AMD E-350 netbook, why? Because the full size was frankly overkill and in fact the E-350 is overkill for what i need on the road but its smaller and lighter. Hell my mom has the slowest PC in my family and its a fricking 3.06Ghz Celeron and all she does is play Age Of Empires and look up recipes! In just my family we are up to FIVE desktops and THREE laptops, what would we need more PCs for?

      Tablets are selling because they are new and there are still folks that want one that haven't got one, that's all. With PCs the OEMs got used to everyone chunking every 3 years thanks to the MHz wars but the wars are over and even the lowest AMD or Intel dual frankly twiddles its thumbs a good 90% of the time because the things folks are using them for simply doesn't need THAT much power. Hell my kids have been gaming for the past 4 years on Pentium Ds and are just now reaching the point where games need more power, I slap in a $120 AMD triple core bundle and they'll probably get at least another year or two before i need to toss their HD4850 GPUs. There just aren't any killer apps that are requiring folks to chunk and with Windows getting a decade or more of support there just isn't a point tossing before EOL anymore. Name one job your average non gaming Joe Blow is gonna have that is gonna stress even the bottom of the line AMD triple huh? Mafia Wars? Farmville? Their FB page? Most of my customers buying now simply won't replace their PCs again until Win 7 hits EOL in 2020 so no shit PCs aren't gonna sell like tablets, there is too much power as it is!

      TL:DR? Give tablets a few more years, to where even the bottom of the line one is a dual core or better and does 1080p and watch how quickly the market slows down. Most of my customers that bought tablets are using them for glorified eReaders simply because they fricking hate writing on the things, nothing beats a keyboard for text.

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  2. He's probably right. by icebike · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Trying to do much REAL WORK(tm) on a tablet is an exercise in frustration. By the time you add a keyboard and mouse so that you can be even marginally productive you might as well get the tablet so that you can work even where/when there isn't a wireless network.

    The tablet's niche is on the couch or the train or the bus.

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    Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    1. Re:He's probably right. by Captain+Splendid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No he's not right. Since the 90s, the "Computer" business has been primarily consumer driven. Which, for the majority of the population, is no longer a desktop, and less and less a laptop.

      If Michal Dell wants to ignore the the metrics that made his company a household name in the first place, that's pretty damned stupid.

      --
      Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
    2. Re:He's probably right. by icebike · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Sorry, why are you adding a mouse?

      Because keyboard and touch screen is a combination that just doesn't work. I've tried it, and found it just easier to add a bluetooth keyboard and mouse combo rather than reaching across my keyboard to touch the tablet all the time. Touch screen cursor placement is finicky on the best of tablets. And any amount of typing beyond the short email is a hopeless productivity killer.

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      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    3. Re:He's probably right. by MightyYar · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Trying to do much REAL WORK(tm) on a tablet is an exercise in frustration.

      What you say is true, but for most people, "real work" means text editing, taxes, Quicken, maybe some photo organizing. Any computer made since 2006 is more than adequate until XP goes dark in 2014. If people get on an 8-year upgrade cycle for desktops/laptops, Dell is in for a real hard decade.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    4. Re:He's probably right. by bonch · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is that a very large amount of people don't do what you would consider "real work"--they only want to check email, browse YouTube, and visit Facebook, and they only have PCs because it was the only way they could do those things previously. Michael Dell has a vested interest in telling people that PCs will rule forever, but I have to tell you, having a portable computer that you don't have to spend hours of maintenance on every week is really, really nice, especially in bed or on the couch.

    5. Re:He's probably right. by the_B0fh · · Score: 4, Interesting

      At work, there's a couple of VPs whose passwords expired because they haven't logged in to their windows PC, but have been using their ipad/iphone for everything.

      So, different uses for different people.

    6. Re:He's probably right. by hey! · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Real work? Depends on what you mean. A new tool often *redefines* what "real" work is, although we'll have to wait and see. I certainly see tablets taking over much of the information *consumption* tasks done on a desktop computer.

      This is how it has always worked. We didn't stop using mainframes when minicomputers came along; some of the tasks that used to be done in major datacenters were moved out to smaller installations and big iron actually bifurcated into two new market segments, each larger than the parent: high performance computing for weather prediction and such, and mainframes for moving vast volumes of data around ultra-reliably.

      When PCs came along people stopped doing most interactive work directly on mini-computers via dumb terminals. We renamed "minicomputers" "servers" and focused them on providing data services to personal computers. The market for servers is certainly far larger than the mini-computer market was in 1981 when IBM introduced the PC (or in 1977 when Apple introduced the Apple II).

      What happens when a new product category is created is that it becomes an area of fast growth, which sucks *attention*, but not necessarily profit from the old ones. It may in some cases spur growth, as desktops spurred the growth of the server business. The days of almost guaranteed exponential growth are long gone in the PC business, but it is possible that tablets rather than cannibalizing the PC business, will re-focus it.

      At least probably. Predicting the future is hard, especially since we're dealing with *two* emergent techologies: really capable mobile devices and cloud services over ubiquitous networks. But *historically* when a class of smaller, cheaper, more convenient computing devices is created, what *had* been the low end segment doesn't really suffer. On the other hand individual firms (like DEC or Wang) *do* suffer when they fail to adapt to changes in the markets they were successful in.

      --
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    7. Re:He's probably right. by aristotle-dude · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Trying to do much REAL WORK(tm) on a tablet is an exercise in frustration.

      Do you mean like a doctor at a hospital looking at CTC scan or chart? Do you mean like a plant of warehouse working checking inventory? A meeting attendee reviewing meetings notes/annotating those notes? Is it not real work for someone to show their client a prospectus on a tablet and being able to make quick alterations on the device while meeting with them? What do you define as "real work"?

      I would think that it would be equally frustrating to work with a laptop without a wireless connection. Many tablets like the iPad 2 come in 3G cellular data models so that takes care of the lack of "wireless".

      --
      Jesus was a compassionate social conservative who called individuals to sin no more.
    8. Re:He's probably right. by evilviper · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is that a very large amount of people don't do what you would consider "real work"--they only want to check email, browse YouTube, and visit Facebook,

      That's not everything most people do. That's 95% of what most people do, and all they think of, but losing the other 5% becomes a real killer. Manipulating photos, video, having terabytes of storage, printing out coupons, printing out most anything, audio capture/editing, etc., etc. I've yet to meet someone who doesn't have one major niche purpose for their computers.

      but I have to tell you, having a portable computer that you don't have to spend hours of maintenance on every week is really, really nice,

      What the hell kind of maintenance are you doing for hours every week? If you're talking about security updates, well you're in for a big surprise when worms for iOS / Android start spreading. If you're talking about disk cleanup, well having a piddly amount of storage is a huge negative, not a positive that you can't do it anymore. Other than that, I can't think of what "maintenance" you need to do all the time.

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    9. Re:He's probably right. by sonicmerlin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Dude, what you described *is* innovation. It's like the Japanese bringing just-in-time manufacturing to the auto industry. It's just supply side innovation, rather than client-side.

  3. Only a threat in multiple computer households by pavon · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Agreed. On the other hand, I imagine that a fair number of the tablets sold went to people who were thinking about buying a laptop/netbook as a second computer, but then opted for the tablet instead.

    1. Re:Only a threat in multiple computer households by realityimpaired · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Michael Dell is usually right about that kind of thing. That's not because I'm any kind of fangirl, or because I used to work for him, just that he's historically been pretty good at predicting market trends. You said it yourself... it's a good replacement to a *second* computer, but you still need a real computer to type documents and actually create content for. Especially at a school.

      What I'd like is a modern version of the "tablet" computers that Lenovo was selling 8 years ago. The kind where you could flip the screen around and use the thing as a tablet, or you could open it up and have a working laptop? Couple that with an ultraportable 13" laptop that tips the scales around 3lbs, and they could make a ton of money on it. Wouldn't even be that hard, they'd just have to rearrange the hinge design on the laptop I have right now (a Dell Vostro V130), and replace the LCD with a touchscreen. I'd even be willing to accept one that requires a stylus instead of finger input. It would be hugely useful. I would be willing to accept the extra bulk inherent in that kind of design in exchange for the increased usability, and I'd still have something that's more portable than the heavier 15" or 16" laptops most people buy.

    2. Re:Only a threat in multiple computer households by Man+On+Pink+Corner · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Dells primary audience is business, tablets are consumer items and rarely used in businesses.

      Yeah, I remember when people around here used to say that about iPhones.

  4. By the same token by hardtofindanick · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If you were going off to college and could only have one device,

    Let's turn that around:
    If you were home, which device would be the first to pick?
    If you were at the beach, which device would you pick?
    If you were on a train which device would you pick?

    It is kind of obvious that PC is for work and tablet is for fun. No clear winner here.

  5. Re:Mr Dell's reality distortion field by bigstrat2003 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's insane to say that the PC is dying because people aren't buying new ones. Maybe (just maybe) people are happy with, and are using, the PCs they already have. That's not "dying", that's simply market saturation.

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    "16MB (fuck off, MiB fascists)" - The Mighty Buzzard
  6. Kodak thought so too... by Tangential · · Score: 5, Interesting

    From Kodak's 2002 Annual Report:

    Our traditional film business is sound as digital imaging continues to evolve.

    That was 10 years ago. The typical end-user desktop/notebook world probably has a similar life left. Just as a few specialty photographers still need film, there will always be niche professionals that need high-end desktop or notebooks, but most end users won't.

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  7. not the full quote by larry+bagina · · Score: 4, Funny

    he also continued, "And if you could have three devices, well, let's just say that none of them will be a Dell."

    --
    Do you even lift?

    These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.

  8. Good bye Dell by nurb432 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sounds like he's got the same problem most other giants have had at some point, just before they start gong down hill. They refuse to acknowledge the changing tide around them, and are unable ( unwilling ) to adapt.

    The first step is denial.

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    ---- Booth was a patriot ----
  9. Re:It's all about the applications by Burning1 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    A friend of mine in college made a very good point.

    She was watching the tablet owners walk into class.... Set up their tables in their docing stations and folding holders, lay out their bluetooth keyboards, plop down their mice, and prepare to work. Comparably, the laptop owners could set their device down, open it up, and begin talking notes.

    The advantage of a tablet is lost when you have to carry around all the acessories you'd expect to see on a full size computer. The laptop will continue to improve. There's a nich for a tablet - some things it's more convenient for than a full size laptop... But also some real disadvantages. i don't see the laptop going away anytime soon.