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Predicting Life 100 Years From Now
New submitter Simon321 writes "BBC News has an interesting article about the top predictions for life 100 years from now. The highlights include extensive farming of the ocean, wiring all sorts of computers to our brains, space elevators, and the break-up of the United States. 'There are some indications already that California wants to split off and such pressures tend to build over time. It is hard to see this waiting until the end of the century. Maybe an East Coast cluster will want to break off too. Pressures come from the enormous differences in wealth generation capability, and people not wanting to fund others if they can avoid it.'"
We will find a guitar, but it will be destroyed by the priests, declaring it is a "silly whim".
"No matter where you go, there you are." -- Buckaroo Banzai
ROTFL. They're talking about California breaking off politically, not physically.
Their predictions are still so much bunk, and calling them sci-fi authors smears the good name of actual sci-fi authors.
Futurologists don't need a background in science, only an audience.
The South/Tea Party will break off well before Cali.
Eastern California (conservative) is very different from Western California (liberal) as well.
I think certain states should form providences and have more control, but I have no clue how that would happen smoothly.
50 years ago, they were predicting flying cars, space travel, holographic TVs, etc by y2k but few of the things they predicted came true, and even of those that did most of them are not accessible to Joe Average. However, look at the one big thing most of them missed: The Internet and the consumer microcomputer revolution.
Predicting the somewhat distant future is great and all, but I'm sure there will be something huge that we never see coming and once it's there, we'll wonder how we ever lived without it.
The difference between a "futurologist" and a "psychic friend" is apparently $1.99 per minute, and you must be over 18 to call.
John
Prediction 1 : I'll be dead.
Prediction 2 : Don't care. See prediction 1.
"Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
From a canuck pov, California is a lot like Quebec. Both have large debts, highly self-inflated opinions of themselves, and have a highly convoluted parasitic nature with both the federal government and other states/provinces. If they went up and left, they'd be in a crash bankruptcy within 2 years, and be begging to come back, as their own entitlement programs would cause them to collapse from within. As it stands now, their own entitlement programs are causing them to collapse from within.
Om, nomnomnom...
That there will be an ironic post about 20 top predictions from 100 years prior and snarky commentators will smugly wonder how we took any of this seriously.
Is there anything better than clicking through Microsoft ads on Slashdot?
I predict there will be unrest in the middle east.
I agree. If anyone would break away from the US, it would be the southern states. California may be the capital of American liberalism, but they're getting along just fine as is. Still, the idea of anyone breaking away right now is ludicrous. The people who express such opinions are all toothless morons that nobody listens too anyway.
Oops. Your conservative is showing.
California is the 8th largest economy in the world. Period. It would be a world power on it's own.
California would do quite well on it's own given it's natural resources and it's western US shipping ports.
California sees less return on federal dollars than is taken in taxes. (Who's the parasite, again?)
California's population and land size give it country sized problems with state sized control and funds.
Actually, California gets less back from the federal government then we pay out. We would be in much better financial shape if we didn't have to subsidize other states.
"Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
"11. Eighty per cent of the world will have gay marriage (Likelihood 8/10)"
Seriously? We have so much widespread extremism in the world that you probably couldn't get a majority of countries to agree that milk is white, and they think this'll get done in a measly 90 years?
"12. California will lead the break-up of the US (Dev 2) (Likelihood 8/10)"
The US has survived a civil war, a depression that makes this recession look like good times, corporate tyranny that even today seems unthinkable, they have the balls to call this that likely? Look, I'm not saying it can't happen -- it definitely can. But given how (increasingly) inter-dependent and weak the states are (compared to federal gov't powers), this prediction is brave to say the least.
"13. Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy (Ahdok) (Likelihood 8/10)"
To be fair he says it won't be so cheap that the average person can afford it, but I think even suggesting that it could be done within 100 years is again brave. There are just so many obstacles that need to be overcome to make this happen; it could even turn out to be theoretically impossible to create materials that would be necessary.
"16. Deserts will become tropical forests (jim300) (Likelihood 7/10)"
More like 1/10. Where's the water coming from? Barring a breakthrough in energy tech that would allow us to cheaply distill sea water, it's never gonna happen (read: it's never gonna happen). The trend today is pretty much the opposite, and I don't see that trend reversing anytime soon in light of increasingly aggressive farming practices and global warming.
I'd love to be wrong though.
weinersmith
100 years from now, Linux will be 5 years from taking over the desktop.
myke
Mimetics Inc. Twitter
Retrospectively,
- in the eighties AIDS was said to be cured by 2000
- in the seventies nuclear plants were created, expecting all the technical uncertainties to be solved by 2000
not mentioning studies, novels, sci-fi movies that made an unsuccessful attempt to describe a world in a 30~50 years future
And they want to predict the world in 100 years from now?
Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
No. Actually.
California is having budget issues mostly because the federal government is raping it, so that its wealth can be redistributed to Republican owned southern and midwestern states. Californians pay far more in federal tax than they receive back in federal benefits. If California was on its own and took those federal taxes itself, its debt would be gone almost immediately.
30 years ago all sorts of stuff was being predicted. space colonies this that. all we ended up has been a widening income/wealth inequality with those amassing wealth doing nothing with that wealth but letting it amass more wealth sitting in the banks. there is no way in hell we will have space elevators, this that, as long as the rich can make more money without making anything. why invest in a space elevator, why you can just let the money sit in hedge funds and let it become more money overnight, without considerable risk ... the only ones who will do these would be new internet-era entrepreneurs and rich boys like the ones who are investing in space x thingies etc now. and no way in hell their numbers and wealth can make these stuff come true in a way that would matter for the public.
You have such a deep misunderstanding of the real world, I'm surprised you can manage to get food into your mouth to survive. The article summary seems to have triggered your "I AM THE 99%" response. However you don't seem to understand the nature of wealth. People like you sit back and complain that the rich have all their money in the bank, so there isn't any left for you. The reality is that weathy people invest their money to remain wealthy. What the hell do you think a hedge fund is? Like most investments, it puts the money to work.
If a space elevator could ever be made profitably, those kinds of funds are the ones that would invest. Poor, aimless, unmotivated fools will never make it happen. No such venture was ever done for charity. Columbus was sponsored by the Portuguese crown in a search for wealth in trade routes. The Apollo program was sponsored by the USA so as to not fall behind in the USSR and risk the cold war. A space elevator represents a huge opportunity for wealth generation. You don't think greed would make it happen if it was possible? You're just plain wrong.
-d
"Here Lies Philip J. Fry, named for his uncle, to carry on his spirit"
You spelled "War of Southern Treason" wrong.
The South started the war, so I fail to see how it could be Northern aggression.
Texas isn't going anywhere, either.
People who want to get elected in Texas use that to cadge votes, because it works, but once they find out you can't defend a nation with a posse carrying six-guns any more and the amount it will raise their taxes to become a real military power with a full Army, Air Force, Coast Guard (370 miles of coastline in the smugglingest water in America), and Border Patrol (1250 miles of border with Mexico, over 60% of the whole border; plus 1400 miles with New Mexico, Okalahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana). Duplicating the rest of the functions of the federal government won't be a cakewalk, either, and don't pretend they'll just let that all fall flat. Economies of scale mean that being a part of the entire nation is cheaper than going it alone. And Texas' physical scale makes it more expensive to administer, not less. Throw in the added expense of commerce across borders, and no protections against tarriffs from the commerce clause, and businesses in the state doing any business out of state will be crippled.
And Texas is hardly monolithic. Split it off from the U.S. and the next thing that happens is that West Texas will insist on separating entirely from East Texas, and East Texas would be just fine with that. So there's only so far the political fixers in the state are willing to take the issue beyond claptrap at campaign rallies.
It's theater, nothing more.
low taxes, small government, etc - and other tea party type things
don't fool yourself, they also want to meddle.
Yes, I'm left. You have a problem with that?
"Futurologist?" What does it take to call oneself a 'futurologist?'
I am a futurologist
I wasn't sure until I tried it, but it's pretty easy.
Mod parent up. The Republican party is disintegrating because while they point their fingers at each other screaming "RINO! RINO!" the fact is that just about everyone but Ron Paul is Conservative In Name Only. Oh, they'll tell you how they'll cut the Energy department and the Education department, and they'll make a lot of noise about unions (except the police unions, they vote Republican) and they'll make a lot of noise about cutting spending (except for in their state, and even Ron's a perpetrator of this, excusing it by claiming that principles be damned, when everyone else is sidling up to the trough he's doing Texas a disfavor by not pigging out with the rest of the hogs) and smaller government (except for the parts that prop up their campaign donors and inspect citizens' bedrooms, monitor everything they smoke, read their email, fondle their kids, xray them when they fly, ride a train, drive a car, and so on).
Actions speak louder than words. The Republican party is doomed, and it's entirely the "moderates" fault, only the people screaming about moderates have been shown to be some of the worst of the lot despite their words.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
I will be a futurologist. See, it's working already!
What would such a thing need us for?
What is even more disturbing is that the exponential trend identified by Moore can be found in completely unrelated economic figures, energy use figures, patent volume figures, and many more.
Humans seem destined to ride an exponential wave, and not to notice until it's too late.
And all the while, the Fermi paradox waits before us like a dark chasm.
Predictions of the Year 2000 from The Ladies Home Journal of December 1900
http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900_predictions.htm
Some spot on. Others... not so much.
Not just the British Empire. The Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, The Russian Empire, The French Empire, The Spanish Empire, the USSR.
Empires rise, and then they fall again. The USA is on the same path as all the empire before it. Only the timing varies.
You completely miss the point. California, and most of the "blue" states, are "giver" states - their citizens and businesses pay more in federal tax (income and otherwise) than they receive back as services. California receives $0.78 (in things like highway dollars and education) per dollar of tax paid. source. For fun, compare "red" states with "blue" states. About 75% of Bush and Gore's electoral votes came from taker and giver states, respectively.
The GP's point was that if those 25c no longer "left" the state, California would be better off.
The best part was you complaining about ignorance and being "factually wrong".
I have developed a truly marvelous proof of this comment, which this signature is too narrow to contain.
China is taking over as world superpower.
Am I the only one who welcomes that? Awesome, I say! Everyone and his grandma can blame all their miseries on China for the next century.
> they'll tell you how they'll cut the Energy department and the Education department,
And that third one. Whatever it was. Damn. I never remember which one I mean.
Bark less. Wag more.
China is not exactly a "backwater". They even have Starbucks there now.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
First, the GP said nothing about the state budget.
Second, that's a perfect example of the broken window fallacy. The citizens pay the Federal Government, and in so doing, give it money that cannot be spent for other things. The correct question is how much the citizens of California as a whole send to the federal government versus the amount that the federal government sends back. The answer to that is "a lot more", with the sole exception of the last couple of years (in which California has gotten more than it sent in, but so has every other state). In most years, California gets back somewhere in the ballpark of eighty cents for every dollar it sends to the feds.
Again, the amount is immaterial. What's important is the cost-benefit ratio. The blue states, on the average, get far less benefit for their federal tax dollars than the red states. This is fairly well established and can be trivially proven by examining the numbers.
Unless, of course, you consider the security benefits. Consider how the wide difference in wealth between the U.S. and Mexico has caused serious safety problems near our Southern border. Now consider what would happen if the Southern U.S. were similarly poor because California stopped propping them up. And that is why the argument of California getting less out than it puts in falls flat—not because it isn't true from a purely numbers point of view, but rather because there are unquantifiable externalities that the argument fails to take into account.
That's grossly incorrect.
Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.
According to the libertarian (and Koch-funded) Tax Foundation, California has paid more into federal coffers than it has taken in federal spending since 1986 ( http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22685.html page 5). And its share that it has given has grown in relation to the amount that it has taken.
There are eighteen states that actually pay their own way, or better, according to the latest data they have collected
( http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/266.html they're in the process of collecting funds for an updated look at more recent numbers). Seventeen of those states went for Obama / Biden in 2008.
One does not have to be a conservative to pass judgment on states leeching government money, but it helps perhaps to be in one when 94.4% of the states that do pay their own way went Democratic in the last Presidential election.
The question is therefore not "why is California spending so much more?", but why are the Red States outstripping California's spending with nothing to back up THEIR leeching ways, playing bootstrappy cowboy at the expense of people in LA, New York, Chicago, etc.?
Shiny. Let's be bad guys...
The key is that "getting along just fine as is" bit. Those days are numbered. China is taking over as world superpower. That's going to have interesting effects on the USA.
Can we PLEASE stop with the China thing? They own less than 9% of U.S. debt. They do not have any meaningful middle class. They offer nothing in the way influence on the world stage beyond that which they have with a few questionable regimes. China will be a power. Maybe a super power, but they're a long, very long way away from parity with Europe much less United States.
load "$",8,1
California sees less return on federal dollars than is taken in taxes. (Who's the parasite, again?)
You sure about that? Hint: look at all the Federal expenditures in California, including welfare.
Yes, we are sure. Our federal tax imbalance is similar in size to our budget deficit.
You could at least base your claims on logic and numbers instead of emotion and expectations.
[1] 2009 Tax Burden Report
[2] 2006 Tax Burden Report
[3] Tax burden by state, 1981-2005
[4] California 2011-12 Budget Outlook
.:Semper Absurda:.
If you don't get out of the south at age 21, you are screwed.
Unless you live in Huntsville. I lived there for awhile in the 90s. Strange place, it was like everyone who knew anything went to Huntsville. Because of NASA and the missile development contractors etc. Everyone had a security clearance and was involved in something interesting. If you didn't want to be the only literate person in your rural village, but still wanted to eat grits and pecan pie, you moved to Huntsville and got a govt job building missiles and whatever. I donno what its like now, but it was a heck of a great place as a young technological man in the 90s. I still culturally attach myself to the hightech redneck meme or whatever, even 20 years later.
The culture, though, remains in place
It was a weird experience to tune the radio around and hear American Dissident Voices being broadcast. It can take some getting used to. Also, everyone, and I mean everyone, seems to go to church or lies and says they do and nothing but evangelical christianity for the whites, baptist for the blacks, and catholicism for the illegals exists, as in mentally provincially no other religious existence is even conceivable or expressible. Its not all bad, some of the nicest folks I've met have followed the southern gentleman ideal of hospitality and respect, and the brotherhood of hightech rednecks knows no limit, if you know how to program a microcontroller and cut threads on a metal lathe and you meet another hightech redneck its like you're insta-adopted into the family, which is nice and friendly but sure takes a bit to get used to for a frigid northerner.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
Someone will invent a way of making text more readable, perhaps by splitting it into smaller chunks.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Whoooooooooosh, Whooooooooooooooosh, Whoooooooooooooosh.
/flashing lights.
I have just arrived here from the year 2112 in my time machine to answer a few of your questions.
The South did win the war against the north due to everyone migrating into Canada. The problem with that is that the South wasn't happy being one state, so South North declared war on the South South which sat at a stalemate for years until Canada finally annexed the south and polited the southerners into submission. All sports other then hockey are now banned in Greater Canada and the beverage previously known as Beer in the former US was renamed "Goats Piss" by His Royal Openness Michael Geist and the 1st open source monarch.
Overpopulation was solved by the zombie crisis of 2035. The zombies actually won that but we were able to stall them by giving them their own sitcom. Groaning Pains is now in it's 76 th season although the corpse of Michael J Fox wont last that many more seasons.
China never became a real superpower because they couldn't make a decent cappuccino.
Most oil reserves ran out in 2048, in 2049 an enterprising geneticist came up with the idea of cloning dinosaurs from DNA encased in fossilised mosquitoes which then could be raised on a Costa Rican Island and turned into oil. Apart from the odd human consumption incident, this has been a smashing success.
The break up of the European Union was announced in 2014, as of December 2111, the EU parliament still hasn't got a working plan on how to facilitate the break up.
First contact was made in 2076. A ship landed in southern Fiji, initially hostile the insectoid aliens were pacified by giving them candy. in 2078 the KzsSSNRRG declared war on Earth to secure candy supplies. The Department of Homeworld Security was formed although quickly disbanded after they discovered the KzsSSNRRG's exoskeleton deflected millimetre wave scanners and no one wanted to give them an enhanced pat down. The war raged on in the stars for years with the Earth Defence Forces slowly falling back until we were able to clone Casper Van Diem.
Flying cars are still 20 years away.
Wikipedism is now bigger then Islam and Christianity combined. Jimmy Wales was deified on his death bed and now millions of people now start their days by staring and offering a personal appeal Jimmy Wales.
The Apple-Google wars of 2018 were as short lived as they were fierce. Apple lost the conflict because they used shiny white armour that could be spotted a mile away and their guns could only fire one bullet before having to be reloaded.
Lord British took over the British isles in 2023. He implemented an experience point for all working residents of great Britain. One earned XP at whatever job they do. It's the only place on earth where a level 73 Tea Lady beats a Level 42 CEO.
Richard M Stallman was lost forever on 14 August 2041. His home was searched by police but all they found was an empty bottle of soap and a recently used razor.
Copyright is now life of the sun plus 10,000 years, but Bit Torrent still works.
If you would excuse me, I must return to my own time. Typing on keyboards is so quaint, in the future we just shout "Bingle, Porn" and it does everything automatically.
Farewell.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.