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Flu + La Nina = Pandemic?
New submitter MrEricSir writes with some scary speculation from a BBC article about the confluence of climate and disease: "A correlation between illness and cold weather is nothing new but this one is very specific: La Nina changes the migratory patterns of birds which can (and often does, according to this theory) cause flu pandemics."
Netcraft confirms it; we are all going to fucking die!!!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Turns out La Nina isn't having any effect this year, it's record warm even though it's supposed to be cold
I'm guessing there's an intermediate step where the short term climate change means more/less domesticated birds, and/or one season's winter being more or less severe means more or less travel and more or less snow days.
Dude in China can't catch bird flu from a bird that he didn't keep because feed is so expensive, and I can't catch it from my coworker if I'm trapped at home in a blizzard, and/or its so dang warm I can't catch it at the mall because I'm playing outside in the beautiful weather.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
The ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) usually exhibits a period of three to five years - so it's not exactly like La Niña is an uncommon event. If there's a correlation, it's pretty weak.
#DeleteChrome
Who's la Nina? Do you mean La Niña? Oh, right...
La Nina gets too much credit when actually its only one factor in the global weather pattern. For example this past winter alone, the pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation has had a much greater impact than La Nina. You could say that La Nina allows things to happen, it doesn't make them happen. La Nina removes the moderating influence you get with it's opposite, El Nino.
So.... should I get the vaccine, or just continue panicking?
It's so hard to choose between manufactured fear, and placebo relief.
The pandemic word is used to create terror. With two patients of the same desease in different continents you have a pandemic.
That's not what pandemic means. (A flu which affects a wide area and makes people sick is just regular old seasonal flu.) A pandemic is an epidemic of a single flu strain which occurs on a global scale.
Don't make me define "epidemic" for you.
No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
A World Pandemic is eventual, and probably will be worse than previous Pandemics. With Climate Change increasing rapidly, Polution getting worse, and Population on the rise, I'm surprised a global virus hasn't killed millions of people yet.
-- By all means let's be open-minded, but not so open-minded that our brains drop out.
Pandemic isn't exactly a phrase. It's a real word, first used in 1666. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pandemic
It's probably a good practice to separate linguistics from topics such as conspiracy theories about vaccines.
Holy cow, up until 10-15 years ago (I don't remember exactly when) most of us had never even heard of el nino/la nina.
Now it seems like there's a fairly regular interval at which people come out and say that one or the other of these is the cause of all sorts of great weirdness.
I honestly can't decide if there's any validity to it, or if people are just spending their research grants to tie their research to something which is on a 5-year (ish) cycle ... if you need to wait for the next cycle to continue your research, you get funded for longer.
It may well be that this does drive some of this ... but I've heard it used to try to explain to many things by now it's hard not to think of it as the bogeyman.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
Getting the Flu sucks regardless. I don't lose any sleep over these stories because I make a best-effort to get the latest Flu shot when available. The parent poster can suck it. If he doesn't want to get vaccinated, that's his call. Persuading other not too is simply irresponsible on his part.
Life is not for the lazy.
Get the Vaccine.
It just works out mathematically.
-1 You suffer pain
0 Pain and suffering are negligible.
1 You feel joy
Value of not taking the vaccine.
1. You don't get the Vaccine and you live in fear of getting the flu: -1
2. You don't get the Vaccine and you Don't get the flu: 0
3. You don't get the Vaccine and you get the flue: -1
4. You don't get the Vaccine and you save like $10: +1
Sum of Risk vs. Loss is -1
Value if you take the vaccine.
1. You get the Vaccine and feel good about being immune: +1
2. You get the Vaccine and you get the flu: -1
3. You get the Vaccine and don't get the flu: 0
4. You get the Vaccine and you spend $10 (Not that much): 0
Sum of Risk vs. Loss is 0
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
It does not have to be "global scale". Here is a quote from the WHO criteria for declaring a pandemic.
"The Pandemic will be declared when the new virus sub-type has been shown to cause several outbreaks in at least one country, and to have spread to other countries, with consistent disease patterns indicating that serious morbidity and mortality is likely in at least one segment of the population."
So a new flu strain in two countries that could cause death in elderly people would be considered a pandemic. That is far from a global scale. It may eventually become global but does not need to be global to be declared a pandemic.
the phrase is basically used to sell un-needed vaccinations. The definition is that it *may* affect a wide area. There is possibility that people might get sick.
In other news all research on flu patterns has been suspended since plopez doesn't want his flu vaccine and people *may* get sick.
As a benefit funds have been diverted into researching denail, bullshit, and ignorance. Researchers have already found three new methods for sticking your head in the sand. They are confident more discoveries will be made as they have the opportunity to observe plopez tomorrow.
This post comes with a double-your-money-back guarantee!
Any offense taken to this post is at your sole discretion.
Get the Vaccine.
:O
It just works out mathematically.
-1 You suffer pain
0 Pain and suffering are negligible.
1 You feel joy
-1 You get the Vaccine, you still get the flu
-1 You get the Vaccine, you get autism.
Value of not taking the vaccine.
1. You don't get the Vaccine and you live in fear of getting the flu: -1
2. You don't get the Vaccine and you Don't get the flu: 0
3. You don't get the Vaccine and you get the flue: -1
4. You don't get the Vaccine and you save like $10: +1
Sum of Risk vs. Loss is -1
Value if you take the vaccine.
1. You get the Vaccine and feel good about being immune: +1
2. You get the Vaccine and you get the flu: -1
3. You get the Vaccine and don't get the flu: 0
4. You get the Vaccine and you spend $10 (Not that much): 0
Sum of Risk vs. Loss is 0
FTFY
Shit, when did Jenny McCarthy start posting on Slashdot?
Linux, you magnificent bastard, I read the fucking manual!
So.... should I get the vaccine, or just continue panicking?
It's so hard to choose between manufactured fear, and placebo relief.
Feel free to do both. Getting the vaccine doesn't help prevent panicking (about this variation of the flu, any variation of the flu, or anything else for that matter). ;-)
pics or gtfo
over this warm weather is consequential of the haarp people and talk of pandemics, the fearmongering of the chemtrail people who delight in dispersing this sick and twisted scheme upon the world. There are many, many things being dumped on our heads by seemingly anonymous jet aircraft. Any pandemic will not be caused by birds. That's a guarantee.
and damage millions of people every year.
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/graphic-day-hospital-infections
"This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
We all know what epidemic means. It's what is making us and our kids fat.
In other news, UTF-8 has not gained acceptance in US-centric websites.
It's not that hard: "La niña", "El niño"
No, not getting the Flushot for yourself is also irresponsible. The Vaccine only works on "some" people. If you fail to get the flu shot yourself, catch the flu and then pass it to some vulnerable child or elderly person that the flu shot did not have an affect on and they die, you're directly responsible for their death.
I don't suggest we make it a law. You're body is your body. But you should know exactly what you're doing when you decided to spout this anti-vaccine nonsense fad. You're risking lives. Not just your own, but your entire family and everyone you meet. You should be shamed, shunned, and generally hated. I wont let un-vaccinate kids anywhere near my kid. I may very well start doing the same with adults.
People can mock WHO all they want, and hide their heads in the sand, but eventually we're going to get hit with another pandemic like the 1918 flu pandemic, and we'll see where these various types of antivaccers assholes sit. Maybe the seasonal vaccine doesn't do fuck all, and I'm no worse off than I was without it. But even reducing the odds of getting a virulent flue strain seems like a goddamned good idea to me.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
The operative word is "may". It may affect a wide area. Or it may be limited to Joe down the street. Too many people think of it as a sure thing. That's why I think it is over hyped.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
Well, you need to take into consideration of two other factors:
1) Potential side effects. The cure could kill you, so to speak.
2) NPR had a story on the manufacturing of a pandemic panic, and it seems the flu shot is only 60% effective.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
Shut it down!!!
What's with the animals these days? Sounds like the "Revenge of Animal Farm". Swine flu - Mad cow disease - birds fly in, we get flu, birds fly out - aids(maybe) - Rabies.......Gonna end up dying of antidote overdose!
A closed mouth gathers no foot.
I've read some speculation that the 1918 pandemic was especially virulent because it started among soldiers at the front. Normally, the sickest people with the flu stay home and the less sick are more likely to go out and infect others, leading to the virus becoming less dangerous over time. Among the soldiers, though, the less sick would stay with their companies, limiting their contagiousness, while the more sick would go to the military hospitals, where they would come into contact with more people, and bring somewhat more virulent varieties into a larger number of people. This then lead (by this hypothesis) to an overall strengthening of the dangerousness of the flu before it spread to many countries outside Europe.
Yours is the proper definition. The other is what it has come to mean for many after a few iterations of the news cycle of panic.
OMFG we're all going to DIIIIIIIIIIiiiiIIIIIeeeeeee
Followed in a month of two by: meh.
There is also the possibility that the flu will kill you. The chances of that happening vs. side effects killing you are probably greater, but that's just a guess.
Was out on a hike and bumped into a park ranger a few days ago. She mentioned the unusual number of birds.
There is a few "risk factors" that are missed.
1. Get the flu from the vaccine even though the virus never reached your area.
2. Force Governments to spend billions of dollars on vaccines that are never used.
3. Avoid people, cancel vacations, etc in hopes of not getting disease even though disease is not present.
My issue with the use of pandemic is that the threshold is so low for it's use but people equating it to to events like the Black Death. Fewer people died from the "Bird Flu Pandemic" a few years ago than normally die each flu season. Most people equate pandemic with mass death and that is just not always the case. Pandemic is mainly defined by mutation and spread and not virilance and mortality.
RUN!!!
Um, just wondering, how did you arrive at this conclusion?
"you're directly responsible for their death"
Sounds like you need to go back to high school, and re-learn some basic logic.
If this is how you live your life, then your kids have worse things to fear than other non-vaccinated kids... Other kids might get the flu, now and then, and they will get better. But your kids will be permanently damaged by your fearful, irrational and retarded parenting. If they do ever get better, it will take decades. I can only hope that their own experiences later in life will expose you for the cowardly suck of a "father" that you are.
You should be shamed, shunned, and generally hated.
Instead of spreading your vile hatred and telling everyone else how to be, maybe you could just vaccinate yourself and those you are responsible for, and then please shut the fuck up?
No, not getting the Flushot for yourself is also irresponsible. The Vaccine only works on "some" people. If you fail to get the flu shot yourself, catch the flu and then pass it to some vulnerable child or elderly person that the flu shot did not have an affect on and they die, you're directly responsible for their death.
Nope. It is not my fault that some people are so vunlerable. Their vulnerability is their own problem - taking precautions is their own responsibility.
Similiar: We don't outlaw peanuts just because some allergics can die from them. Instead, they avoid the peanuts. And we don't block out all light just because a few people are allergic to light. Instead, they stay in windowless basements. And we shouldn't disallow cats because some people are allergic either...
I would argue that "...several outbreaks in at least one country, and to have spread to other countries,..." is a definition of "global scale". What else would it mean?
National scale: multiple outbreaks in a single nation
Global scale: multiple outbreaks spanning multiple nations
No?
while [ 1 ]; do echo -n -e "\xe2\x95\xb$((($RANDOM&1)+1))"; done
The Vaccine only works on "some" people. If you fail to get the flu shot yourself, catch the flu and then pass it to some vulnerable child or elderly person that the flu shot did not have an affect on and they die, you're directly responsible for their death.
No, by definition, you're indirectly responsible. Not directly.
So far things seem to be looking good for U.S.
Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2011-2012/bigpi01.htm
Full CDC Flu web page
Warning very complex. Understand statistics and medical terminology, and expect to spend hours.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
Death due to influenza (or pneumonia) varies seasonally but tends to be in the 7% range (of all death types). (Probably only 2% to 8% of those P&I deaths are actually one of the major strains of influenza - also from the CDC). Serious adverse reactions to a flu vaccine is typically less than 20 per 1,000,000. Death is a very small subset of serious adverse reactions.
I'm not going to walk the numbers all the way to apples and apples because it should be obvious from here.
^This.
People like GP piss me off. They get all high and mighty and can't even be bothered to use proper terminology.
...you're directly responsible for their death.
I don't suggest we make it a law.
It's clear that you're going out of your way to explain the situation as to not contradict yourself. But in fact that's exactly what your doing. Contradicting yourself. While I'm not a lawyer, your statement would seem to hold someone criminally negligent. And while I don't know if a legal precedent has already be established on this front then yes, by de facto, you would need to be vaccinated to prevent prosecution of criminal behavior.
Life is not for the lazy.
Sorry but outbreaks is LA, San Fran and San Deigo with and outbreak in Tiajuana Mexico would qualify for "pandemic". Take a look at Europe; Say the outbreaks were in Luxumberg, Belgium and Holland. Multiple countries yet a small area but still qualifies as a pandemic. Neither of these examples cover a large area but both qualify as a pandemic because a virus crossed a border.
To me, global means involving countries from around the world. It does not mean two countries next to each other; That would be defined as international. Now if the definition was at least three continents then I agree with "global"
The way I understand it, it's not the flu itself that will kill you, but the body's prophylactic overreaction.
Does an immune system react with the same level of intensity with a vaccine as with a full-fledged, live flu?
Because if the worst-case vaccine scenario is less intense than the worst-case flu scenario, gimme the shot (as much as I hate needles).
Lil' Thindime, lilting a lacrimose lament, krashes the kwaint konfines of Kokonino Kounty
It affects California, isn't that enough for you?
And we shouldn't disallow cats because some people are allergic either...
Yes we should! Stupid walking balls of allergens....
forget the shot, just go off in the woods alone and die so no one will catch your illnesses and die.
There is a few "risk factors" that are missed.
1. Get the flu from the vaccine even though the virus never reached your area.
2. Force Governments to spend billions of dollars on vaccines that are never used.
3. Avoid people, cancel vacations, etc in hopes of not getting disease even though disease is not present.
My issue with the use of pandemic is that the threshold is so low for it's use but people equating it to to events like the Black Death. Fewer people died from the "Bird Flu Pandemic" a few years ago than normally die each flu season. Most people equate pandemic with mass death and that is just not always the case. Pandemic is mainly defined by mutation and spread and not virilance and mortality.
um... item 1 is pretty much impossible. Flu vaccines don't contain influenza... they only contain inactive culture (it would be like saying that this rabbit skin in my hand is suddenly going to cause the area to be overrun with rabbits). Furthermore, vaccines aren't used to stop people from getting infected; they're used to stop the movement of a virus from one location to another. The entire idea is that if the vaccine is used correctly, THE VIRUS WILL NEVER REACH YOUR AREA. If it does, the vaccine failed to do its job.
I find no problem with 3.... as long as 1 and 2 are also being done and 3 is not legislated. People tend to be too incautious with sanitary procedures at the best of times.
Interestingly, the media start reporting when they see "epidemic" and start handwaving doom and gloom when they see "pandemic" -- but they ignore the issue when they see "endemic".
The editors must have whooped with delight when they stumbled upon a story that covered BOTH global warming and vaccination.... Now we just need to tie in US politics, terrorism, patents and hot grits, and we're all set....
There are live flu vaccines. From the CDC site;
"The nasal-spray flu vaccine — a vaccine made with live, weakened flu viruses that is given as a nasal spray (sometimes called LAIV for “Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine”). The viruses in the nasal spray vaccine do not cause the flu. LAIV is approved for use in healthy* people 2 through 49 years of age who are not pregnant."
Here are some of the side effects possible from a LAIV vaccine;
"In children, side effects can include runny nose, headache, wheezing, vomiting, muscle aches, and fever. In adults, side effects can include runny nose, headache, sore throat, and cough. Fever is not a common side effect in adults receiving the nasal-spray flu vaccine."
Most people would call those side effects the flu. One may not get the same flu as being inocculated against but one may get a lesser case of flu
Furthermore, vaccines aren't used to stop people from getting infected; they're used to stop the movement of a virus from one location to another.
You are completely wrong here. Vaccines stopping people from being infected therefore when people move around they are not infected and therefore can not spread the infection. How do you think a vaccine that does not stop infection stops movement?
The entire idea is that if the vaccine is used correctly, THE VIRUS WILL NEVER REACH YOUR AREA. If it does, the vaccine failed to do its job.
What is your idea on what "correctly" is? Vaccinate everyone in an outbreak area? What about people who travel with the virus before the outbreak is recognized? Vaccinate everyone in the world? Not going to happen unless legislated and then money and vaccine supply is an issue. Trace everyone who left an outbreak area and vaccinate everyone they came into contact with? Given air travel this scenario rapidly becomes "vaccinate the world".
Anyone who has seen "Morte a Venezia" (1971) already knows about the ability of climate to spread disease.
A.
...bringing you cynical quips since 1998
There are live flu vaccines.
I stand corrected. I can't imagine why someone would ever want to infect themselves with such a thing, except as a last resort.
You are completely wrong here. Vaccines stopping people from being infected therefore when people move around they are not infected and therefore can not spread the infection. How do you think a vaccine that does not stop infection stops movement?
I wasn't talking about the effect, but the purpose. Of course a vaccine has to stop infection... but vaccines are not guaranteed to stop infection in an individual, as the vaccine may not "take," or the virus may mutate prior to exposure to the point where the immunity is worthless. It's about statistical probability, and decreasing the pandemic spread of the virus. I admit that I was extremely vague about this on re-reading what I wrote.
What is your idea on what "correctly" is? Vaccinate everyone in an outbreak area? What about people who travel with the virus before the outbreak is recognized? Vaccinate everyone in the world? Not going to happen unless legislated and then money and vaccine supply is an issue. Trace everyone who left an outbreak area and vaccinate everyone they came into contact with? Given air travel this scenario rapidly becomes "vaccinate the world".
"correctly" is based on the projected spreads as analysis by trained virologists indicates. People who are high risk should be vaccinated (children, parents of young children, people working in jobs that have high exposure to changing groups), and move out from there down the risk tail as supply and time allows. Incidentally, live strains should never be given to people in those categories IMO, even if the alternative is no vaccine. Better that people stay home for a day or so if the need arises.
We should get the flu shot. Because it may or may not guard against a danger that we may or may not come into contact with.
This is not terribly convincing. Since this is /. and all, folks may become more interested if there were numbers to back this up ie. the odds of contracting the illness are x% for the general pop but only y% for those who received the vaccination.
What a load of bullshit.
Can I assume from this you are vaccinated against EVERY possible nasty out there? there are a LOT of them remember.
You also realise that the flu vacinations are only targeted against a couple of expected strains for the coming season, and quite
often miss around 1/2 the active strains that end up spreading?
Even that ignores the amounts of research that show that for a normal healthy adult, having flu can have significant long term
health BENEFITS!
If you have the flu then you should stay away from others of course, but what you suggest is just BS scare tactics mixed with
a pile of misdirected emotional claptrap.
I feel quite sorry for your kid - and I wonder if you let them cross the road, travel in cars, or play outside, all of which are of course
MUCH more dangerous...
My theory is that, during the winter, we have far less sun exposure, due to shorter days, and people staying indoors to avoid the cold.
This causes a huge drop in natural Vitamin D3 levels. So I supplement with Vitamin D3, especially during the winter.
Now, I'm not a doctor or a scientist, but I never catch colds or the flu since doing this.
I also NEVER get the flu shots. I was exposed directly to the H1N1 swine flu for 3 weeks, and never came down with it.
-Myke
Having seen two people hospitalised at work in the last couple of weeks with malaria, and one with typhoid fever a couple of months ago ... you're right. Though people who have forgotten (or never known) what serious infectious disease is may have a job believing that.
I had a pretty rough time with pertussis as a young child. It's pretty much my earliest memory. Not particularly life-threatening as we have socialised health care here in the civilised world, but it sure as hell wasn't fun for anyone in the family.
(I may not have listed all the malaria hospitalisations - I don't have to keep the records, so it's only of passing interest. And I take my prophylaxis, more than religiously.)
Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
you do realise that the "link" between vaccinations and autism is complete bullshit - a deliberate fraud.
OTOH, the real risk is that if people take the vaccine, they'll die within days and then rise to turn into flesh-eating monsters. i'd call that at least a -1 on the risk side of the equation....but it balances out:
-1 take the vaccine and turn into an undead cannibal
vs
-1 don't take the vaccine and get eaten by your neighbours who did.