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Flu + La Nina = Pandemic?
New submitter MrEricSir writes with some scary speculation from a BBC article about the confluence of climate and disease: "A correlation between illness and cold weather is nothing new but this one is very specific: La Nina changes the migratory patterns of birds which can (and often does, according to this theory) cause flu pandemics."
Didn't you hear, last years colder wetter winter was caused by global warming. The same thing that is causing this warm winter. Oh it also caused it to rain last summer but not the summer before, everything weather wise is caused by man made global warming!
I'm guessing there's an intermediate step where the short term climate change means more/less domesticated birds, and/or one season's winter being more or less severe means more or less travel and more or less snow days.
Dude in China can't catch bird flu from a bird that he didn't keep because feed is so expensive, and I can't catch it from my coworker if I'm trapped at home in a blizzard, and/or its so dang warm I can't catch it at the mall because I'm playing outside in the beautiful weather.
"Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
Are you talking about one continent? I only ask because La Nina and El Nino have an effect on multiple continents. Not to mention that global climate change will most likely affect these sorts of large climate patterns first.
The ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) usually exhibits a period of three to five years - so it's not exactly like La Niña is an uncommon event. If there's a correlation, it's pretty weak.
#DeleteChrome
Supposed to? I think you need to take statistics 101.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
I think you're mixing up Spanish with Wingdings.
That's not what pandemic means. (A flu which affects a wide area and makes people sick is just regular old seasonal flu.) A pandemic is an epidemic of a single flu strain which occurs on a global scale.
Don't make me define "epidemic" for you.
No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
Didn't you hear, last years colder wetter winter was caused by global warming.
You must live in Texas.
A World Pandemic is eventual, and probably will be worse than previous Pandemics. With Climate Change increasing rapidly, Polution getting worse, and Population on the rise, I'm surprised a global virus hasn't killed millions of people yet.
-- By all means let's be open-minded, but not so open-minded that our brains drop out.
The pandemic word is used to create terror. With two patients of the same desease in different continents you have a pandemic.
Oh shut up. Pandemics are real. And potentially very dangerous. Not everything is hype. Take some more happy pills or go over to one of the copyright threads and angst there.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
Holy cow, up until 10-15 years ago (I don't remember exactly when) most of us had never even heard of el nino/la nina.
Now it seems like there's a fairly regular interval at which people come out and say that one or the other of these is the cause of all sorts of great weirdness.
I honestly can't decide if there's any validity to it, or if people are just spending their research grants to tie their research to something which is on a 5-year (ish) cycle ... if you need to wait for the next cycle to continue your research, you get funded for longer.
It may well be that this does drive some of this ... but I've heard it used to try to explain to many things by now it's hard not to think of it as the bogeyman.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
Getting the Flu sucks regardless. I don't lose any sleep over these stories because I make a best-effort to get the latest Flu shot when available. The parent poster can suck it. If he doesn't want to get vaccinated, that's his call. Persuading other not too is simply irresponsible on his part.
Life is not for the lazy.
Get the Vaccine.
It just works out mathematically.
-1 You suffer pain
0 Pain and suffering are negligible.
1 You feel joy
Value of not taking the vaccine.
1. You don't get the Vaccine and you live in fear of getting the flu: -1
2. You don't get the Vaccine and you Don't get the flu: 0
3. You don't get the Vaccine and you get the flue: -1
4. You don't get the Vaccine and you save like $10: +1
Sum of Risk vs. Loss is -1
Value if you take the vaccine.
1. You get the Vaccine and feel good about being immune: +1
2. You get the Vaccine and you get the flu: -1
3. You get the Vaccine and don't get the flu: 0
4. You get the Vaccine and you spend $10 (Not that much): 0
Sum of Risk vs. Loss is 0
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
Yes, they are real but we have to learn to stay calm and don't panic.
It does not have to be "global scale". Here is a quote from the WHO criteria for declaring a pandemic.
"The Pandemic will be declared when the new virus sub-type has been shown to cause several outbreaks in at least one country, and to have spread to other countries, with consistent disease patterns indicating that serious morbidity and mortality is likely in at least one segment of the population."
So a new flu strain in two countries that could cause death in elderly people would be considered a pandemic. That is far from a global scale. It may eventually become global but does not need to be global to be declared a pandemic.
Yes, they are real but we have to learn to stay calm and don't panic.
Well that takes all the fun out of it.
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There's always the option for an end-of-the-world party.
the phrase is basically used to sell un-needed vaccinations. The definition is that it *may* affect a wide area. There is possibility that people might get sick.
In other news all research on flu patterns has been suspended since plopez doesn't want his flu vaccine and people *may* get sick.
As a benefit funds have been diverted into researching denail, bullshit, and ignorance. Researchers have already found three new methods for sticking your head in the sand. They are confident more discoveries will be made as they have the opportunity to observe plopez tomorrow.
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Any offense taken to this post is at your sole discretion.
So.... should I get the vaccine, or just continue panicking?
It's so hard to choose between manufactured fear, and placebo relief.
Feel free to do both. Getting the vaccine doesn't help prevent panicking (about this variation of the flu, any variation of the flu, or anything else for that matter). ;-)
and damage millions of people every year.
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/graphic-day-hospital-infections
"This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
It is actually having quite an effect. The thing is that the areas where there a lot of people who pay attention to this stuff: the US and Europe, La Ninas tend to produce warm and dry conditions in the winter. Of course, other things are going on, such as a massive stratospheric polar vortex, fed by a recent uptick in solar activity and other internal factors (potentially fall snowcover patterns, if you can believe that).
We all know what epidemic means. It's what is making us and our kids fat.
This is why we don't listen to the mainstream media for scientific matters.
Also, last winter wasn't that cold and wet, except in the eastern US (and there, mostly just cold, not so much wet) where all the major media markets are, and so people think we actually had some ground-breakingly cold winter last year when in fact it really wasn't that bad, even for the areas that experienced it.
NAO is only relevant for the eastern US and western Europe. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is more relevant for the entire northern hemisphere and it indeed has been extremely positive (warm phase) this year in correlation with a strong polar vortex in both the troposphere and stratosphere. The vortex in the troposphere, at least, has weakened a bit of late, allowing the colder temperatures we've seen in the last week or two. Still not enough to really bring a true winter to the eastern US, but better than what we saw in December.
In other news, UTF-8 has not gained acceptance in US-centric websites.
It's not that hard: "La niña", "El niño"
No, not getting the Flushot for yourself is also irresponsible. The Vaccine only works on "some" people. If you fail to get the flu shot yourself, catch the flu and then pass it to some vulnerable child or elderly person that the flu shot did not have an affect on and they die, you're directly responsible for their death.
I don't suggest we make it a law. You're body is your body. But you should know exactly what you're doing when you decided to spout this anti-vaccine nonsense fad. You're risking lives. Not just your own, but your entire family and everyone you meet. You should be shamed, shunned, and generally hated. I wont let un-vaccinate kids anywhere near my kid. I may very well start doing the same with adults.
People can mock WHO all they want, and hide their heads in the sand, but eventually we're going to get hit with another pandemic like the 1918 flu pandemic, and we'll see where these various types of antivaccers assholes sit. Maybe the seasonal vaccine doesn't do fuck all, and I'm no worse off than I was without it. But even reducing the odds of getting a virulent flue strain seems like a goddamned good idea to me.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
There's always the option for an end-of-the-world party.
Ummm, it's 2012 -- already booked.
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The operative word is "may". It may affect a wide area. Or it may be limited to Joe down the street. Too many people think of it as a sure thing. That's why I think it is over hyped.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
Well, you need to take into consideration of two other factors:
1) Potential side effects. The cure could kill you, so to speak.
2) NPR had a story on the manufacturing of a pandemic panic, and it seems the flu shot is only 60% effective.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
Yes, that's what happened when I tried to submit the story. That's why I removed the accent.
There's no -1 for "I don't get it."
I've read some speculation that the 1918 pandemic was especially virulent because it started among soldiers at the front. Normally, the sickest people with the flu stay home and the less sick are more likely to go out and infect others, leading to the virus becoming less dangerous over time. Among the soldiers, though, the less sick would stay with their companies, limiting their contagiousness, while the more sick would go to the military hospitals, where they would come into contact with more people, and bring somewhat more virulent varieties into a larger number of people. This then lead (by this hypothesis) to an overall strengthening of the dangerousness of the flu before it spread to many countries outside Europe.
Yours is the proper definition. The other is what it has come to mean for many after a few iterations of the news cycle of panic.
OMFG we're all going to DIIIIIIIIIIiiiiIIIIIeeeeeee
Followed in a month of two by: meh.
There is also the possibility that the flu will kill you. The chances of that happening vs. side effects killing you are probably greater, but that's just a guess.
The last few 'pandemics' turned out to be hype, don't you think?
Remember how we were all gonna die from the flu and it turned out to be no worse than any other year?
That's not to say that there haven't been proper flu pandemics in history, just that nothing in recent years should ever have gotten the label. Keep crying wolf and one day you'll be ignored while a wolf eats you./
There is a few "risk factors" that are missed.
1. Get the flu from the vaccine even though the virus never reached your area.
2. Force Governments to spend billions of dollars on vaccines that are never used.
3. Avoid people, cancel vacations, etc in hopes of not getting disease even though disease is not present.
My issue with the use of pandemic is that the threshold is so low for it's use but people equating it to to events like the Black Death. Fewer people died from the "Bird Flu Pandemic" a few years ago than normally die each flu season. Most people equate pandemic with mass death and that is just not always the case. Pandemic is mainly defined by mutation and spread and not virilance and mortality.
Or you could learn some HTML so you could write “La Niña.” It's pretty easy to look this stuff up...
It's not an accent, ñ is actually another letter of the alphabet in spanish. "...l m n ñ o p q..."
RUN!!!
Um, just wondering, how did you arrive at this conclusion?
"you're directly responsible for their death"
Sounds like you need to go back to high school, and re-learn some basic logic.
If this is how you live your life, then your kids have worse things to fear than other non-vaccinated kids... Other kids might get the flu, now and then, and they will get better. But your kids will be permanently damaged by your fearful, irrational and retarded parenting. If they do ever get better, it will take decades. I can only hope that their own experiences later in life will expose you for the cowardly suck of a "father" that you are.
You should be shamed, shunned, and generally hated.
Instead of spreading your vile hatred and telling everyone else how to be, maybe you could just vaccinate yourself and those you are responsible for, and then please shut the fuck up?
The Vaccine only works on "some" people. If you fail to get the flu shot yourself, catch the flu and then pass it to some vulnerable child or elderly person that the flu shot did not have an affect on and they die, you're directly responsible for their death.
No, by definition, you're indirectly responsible. Not directly.
Remember how we were all gonna die from the flu and it turned out to be no worse than any other year?
I had the swine flu.
It was exactly the same as the regular flu. Meaning since I wasn't elderly, a child, or living with a compromised immune system, I was knocked on my arse for a few days and got a lot of sleep of dubious quality.
The WHO promised me a horrifying but ultimately peaceful end to dealing with coworkers and clients. But here I remain. Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah. *puts on two pairs of sunglasses, goes back to dealing with bullshit*
Death due to influenza (or pneumonia) varies seasonally but tends to be in the 7% range (of all death types). (Probably only 2% to 8% of those P&I deaths are actually one of the major strains of influenza - also from the CDC). Serious adverse reactions to a flu vaccine is typically less than 20 per 1,000,000. Death is a very small subset of serious adverse reactions.
I'm not going to walk the numbers all the way to apples and apples because it should be obvious from here.
...you're directly responsible for their death.
I don't suggest we make it a law.
It's clear that you're going out of your way to explain the situation as to not contradict yourself. But in fact that's exactly what your doing. Contradicting yourself. While I'm not a lawyer, your statement would seem to hold someone criminally negligent. And while I don't know if a legal precedent has already be established on this front then yes, by de facto, you would need to be vaccinated to prevent prosecution of criminal behavior.
Life is not for the lazy.
Or you could learn some HTML so you could write “La Niña.” It's pretty easy to look this stuff up...
Why in the fuck would you use an HTML entity for a perfectly valid character?
It's SLASHDOT'S fault that anything unicode gets fucked to hell.
HTML entities are for ESCAPING special characters like < via < so they're interpreted and rendered as text and not code.
PRESIDENT MADAGASCAR
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3533/3875134850_c4dc95299a.jpg
The way I understand it, it's not the flu itself that will kill you, but the body's prophylactic overreaction.
Does an immune system react with the same level of intensity with a vaccine as with a full-fledged, live flu?
Because if the worst-case vaccine scenario is less intense than the worst-case flu scenario, gimme the shot (as much as I hate needles).
Lil' Thindime, lilting a lacrimose lament, krashes the kwaint konfines of Kokonino Kounty
It affects California, isn't that enough for you?
And we shouldn't disallow cats because some people are allergic either...
Yes we should! Stupid walking balls of allergens....
There is a few "risk factors" that are missed.
1. Get the flu from the vaccine even though the virus never reached your area.
2. Force Governments to spend billions of dollars on vaccines that are never used.
3. Avoid people, cancel vacations, etc in hopes of not getting disease even though disease is not present.
My issue with the use of pandemic is that the threshold is so low for it's use but people equating it to to events like the Black Death. Fewer people died from the "Bird Flu Pandemic" a few years ago than normally die each flu season. Most people equate pandemic with mass death and that is just not always the case. Pandemic is mainly defined by mutation and spread and not virilance and mortality.
um... item 1 is pretty much impossible. Flu vaccines don't contain influenza... they only contain inactive culture (it would be like saying that this rabbit skin in my hand is suddenly going to cause the area to be overrun with rabbits). Furthermore, vaccines aren't used to stop people from getting infected; they're used to stop the movement of a virus from one location to another. The entire idea is that if the vaccine is used correctly, THE VIRUS WILL NEVER REACH YOUR AREA. If it does, the vaccine failed to do its job.
I find no problem with 3.... as long as 1 and 2 are also being done and 3 is not legislated. People tend to be too incautious with sanitary procedures at the best of times.
Interestingly, the media start reporting when they see "epidemic" and start handwaving doom and gloom when they see "pandemic" -- but they ignore the issue when they see "endemic".
There are live flu vaccines. From the CDC site;
"The nasal-spray flu vaccine — a vaccine made with live, weakened flu viruses that is given as a nasal spray (sometimes called LAIV for “Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine”). The viruses in the nasal spray vaccine do not cause the flu. LAIV is approved for use in healthy* people 2 through 49 years of age who are not pregnant."
Here are some of the side effects possible from a LAIV vaccine;
"In children, side effects can include runny nose, headache, wheezing, vomiting, muscle aches, and fever. In adults, side effects can include runny nose, headache, sore throat, and cough. Fever is not a common side effect in adults receiving the nasal-spray flu vaccine."
Most people would call those side effects the flu. One may not get the same flu as being inocculated against but one may get a lesser case of flu
Furthermore, vaccines aren't used to stop people from getting infected; they're used to stop the movement of a virus from one location to another.
You are completely wrong here. Vaccines stopping people from being infected therefore when people move around they are not infected and therefore can not spread the infection. How do you think a vaccine that does not stop infection stops movement?
The entire idea is that if the vaccine is used correctly, THE VIRUS WILL NEVER REACH YOUR AREA. If it does, the vaccine failed to do its job.
What is your idea on what "correctly" is? Vaccinate everyone in an outbreak area? What about people who travel with the virus before the outbreak is recognized? Vaccinate everyone in the world? Not going to happen unless legislated and then money and vaccine supply is an issue. Trace everyone who left an outbreak area and vaccinate everyone they came into contact with? Given air travel this scenario rapidly becomes "vaccinate the world".
Anyone who has seen "Morte a Venezia" (1971) already knows about the ability of climate to spread disease.
A.
...bringing you cynical quips since 1998
There are live flu vaccines.
I stand corrected. I can't imagine why someone would ever want to infect themselves with such a thing, except as a last resort.
You are completely wrong here. Vaccines stopping people from being infected therefore when people move around they are not infected and therefore can not spread the infection. How do you think a vaccine that does not stop infection stops movement?
I wasn't talking about the effect, but the purpose. Of course a vaccine has to stop infection... but vaccines are not guaranteed to stop infection in an individual, as the vaccine may not "take," or the virus may mutate prior to exposure to the point where the immunity is worthless. It's about statistical probability, and decreasing the pandemic spread of the virus. I admit that I was extremely vague about this on re-reading what I wrote.
What is your idea on what "correctly" is? Vaccinate everyone in an outbreak area? What about people who travel with the virus before the outbreak is recognized? Vaccinate everyone in the world? Not going to happen unless legislated and then money and vaccine supply is an issue. Trace everyone who left an outbreak area and vaccinate everyone they came into contact with? Given air travel this scenario rapidly becomes "vaccinate the world".
"correctly" is based on the projected spreads as analysis by trained virologists indicates. People who are high risk should be vaccinated (children, parents of young children, people working in jobs that have high exposure to changing groups), and move out from there down the risk tail as supply and time allows. Incidentally, live strains should never be given to people in those categories IMO, even if the alternative is no vaccine. Better that people stay home for a day or so if the need arises.
My theory is that, during the winter, we have far less sun exposure, due to shorter days, and people staying indoors to avoid the cold.
This causes a huge drop in natural Vitamin D3 levels. So I supplement with Vitamin D3, especially during the winter.
Now, I'm not a doctor or a scientist, but I never catch colds or the flu since doing this.
I also NEVER get the flu shots. I was exposed directly to the H1N1 swine flu for 3 weeks, and never came down with it.
-Myke
Having seen two people hospitalised at work in the last couple of weeks with malaria, and one with typhoid fever a couple of months ago ... you're right. Though people who have forgotten (or never known) what serious infectious disease is may have a job believing that.
I had a pretty rough time with pertussis as a young child. It's pretty much my earliest memory. Not particularly life-threatening as we have socialised health care here in the civilised world, but it sure as hell wasn't fun for anyone in the family.
(I may not have listed all the malaria hospitalisations - I don't have to keep the records, so it's only of passing interest. And I take my prophylaxis, more than religiously.)
Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
you do realise that the "link" between vaccinations and autism is complete bullshit - a deliberate fraud.
OTOH, the real risk is that if people take the vaccine, they'll die within days and then rise to turn into flesh-eating monsters. i'd call that at least a -1 on the risk side of the equation....but it balances out:
-1 take the vaccine and turn into an undead cannibal
vs
-1 don't take the vaccine and get eaten by your neighbours who did.