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North Star May Be Wasting Away

sciencehabit writes "The North Star, a celestial beacon to navigators for centuries, may be slowly shrinking, according to a new analysis of more than 160 years of observations. The data suggest that the familiar fixture in the northern sky is shedding an Earth's mass worth of gas each year."

41 of 129 comments (clear)

  1. Oh my god! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Polaris must be losing nearly the equivalent of Earth's mass—or a little under a millionth of its own mass—each year,

    In a little over a million years, we won't be able to use that particular star to navigate any more. IT'LL BE CHAOS!

    1. Re:Oh my god! by GodInHell · · Score: 2, Informative

      Not to take you too seriously -- but it would probably shrink to the point where it became impossible to see the north star long before that.

      We do however have wonderful things called "Com-pass-es" that work similarly (even inside and in daytime).

      -GiH

    2. Re:Oh my god! by Hatta · · Score: 5, Informative

      The Earth precesses once ever 26000 years. In 13000 years north will be pointed towards Vega.

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    3. Re:Oh my god! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Vega is a fucking space ghetto. I don't want to point to that part of the celestial neighborhood.

    4. Re:Oh my god! by ackthpt · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Polaris must be losing nearly the equivalent of Earth's mass—or a little under a millionth of its own mass—each year,

      In a little over a million years, we won't be able to use that particular star to navigate any more. IT'LL BE CHAOS!

      It's more likely to collapse and blow off gas in a nebula before then, but agree, it's very hard to use nebulas as navigational aids during the daylight hours and tricky enough at night.

      --

      A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    5. Re:Oh my god! by masternerdguy · · Score: 2

      But I use nebulas to navigate in Freelancer all the time. They're so bright and colorful you can't miss them...Oh wait.

      --
      To offset political mods, replace Flamebait with Insightful.
    6. Re:Oh my god! by SpryGuy · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well, except that over that same time period, we'll be experiencing a reversal of the poles, and the accompaning period of magnetic flux that would make magnetic compasses rather useless.

      --

      - Spryguy
      There are three kinds of people in this world: those that can count and those that can't
    7. Re:Oh my god! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      You're right

      Karma whoring:
      "...Gamma Cephei (also known as Alrai, situated 45 light-years away) will become closer to the northern celestial pole than Polaris around AD 3000. Iota Cephei will become the pole star some time around AD 5200.

      First-magnitude Deneb will be within 5 of the North Pole in AD 10000.

      The brilliant Vega in the constellation Lyra is often touted as the best North Star (it fulfilled that role around 12000 BC and will do so again around the year AD 14000). However, it never comes closer than 5 to the pole.

      When Polaris becomes the North Star again around 27800 AD, due to its proper motion it then will be farther away from the pole than it is now, while in 23600 BC it came closer to the pole.

      In 3000 BC the faint star Thuban in the constellation Draco was the North Star. At magnitude 3.67 (fourth magnitude) it is only one-fifth as bright as Polaris, and today it is invisible in light-polluted urban skies..."

      -Wikipedia

    8. Re:Oh my god! by jamstar7 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Vega is a fucking space ghetto. I don't want to point to that part of the celestial neighborhood.

      I thought that was where the Mother Thing was from? Doesn't sound like a ghetto... Wormface and company were from the ghetto.

      Problem is, what comes from Vega are Vegans. If they invade, no more leather, no more steaks. We'll be reduced to eating vegetables and tofu forever and ever and ever, amen

      Course, the upside is, we'll produce plenty of methane, so it might help with the energy crunch, though I kinda doubt it'll be comfortable walking around with a gas pipe up my ass. Maybe that's why the aliens are so into anal probing...

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    9. Re:Oh my god! by rubycodez · · Score: 2

      slashdot ate your degree signs (some geek site huh?)

      also of interest is that Deneb is presently the North Pole star of Mars.

    10. Re:Oh my god! by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 2

      The Earth precesses once ever 26000 years. In 13000 years north will be pointed towards Vega.

      For fun I cranked up Stellarium to check the relative positions of Polaris and Vega. Does anyone know a way to make Stellarium draw a trail for stars like it does with planets? I turned up the time rate to whiz through thousands of years per second and can sort of make out the the path of Polaris with respect to the North pole due to precession, but it would be nice to have it trace out the path.

      BTW, Stellarium stops at the year 99999. That seems like an odd limit.

    11. Re:Oh my god! by Tastecicles · · Score: 3, Funny

      ah, that's because when it clicks over to 100,000 the Morlocks invade...

      --
      Operation Guillotine is in effect.
    12. Re:Oh my god! by Man+Eating+Duck · · Score: 2

      Wow, I only recently started delving into Sci-Fi stories. Never heard of this one but it sounds cool. Thanks for the post! (The most recent one I read is "
      Machines That Think: The Best Science Fiction Stories About Robots and Computers" A pretty good collection.)

      Have Space Suit—Will Travel is OK, but a bit strange, like many of Heinlein's novels. If you haven't read anything else by him I would rather recommend Starship Troopers or The Moon is a Harsh Mistress for starters.

      I haven't read the collection you mention, but I have read about half of the stories therein, most are good ones. While I'm here I can give you some completely unsolicited pointers: Stephen Baxter (Evolution, and Manifold books, which explore fundamental concepts of physics and cosmology), the novels of Iain M. Banks (the "M" is important, it's what he uses for SF works), and Eric Brown (for instance the collection Kéthani), for contemporary works. If you liked the Vinge story his novels are enjoyable as well, although not centered on AI.

      For more classical/space opera stuff Asimov's Foundation series is nice, and pretty much all of his short stories come recommended. If you liked The Bicentennial Man you should check out his Robot series (titles on Wikipedia). Arthur C. Clarke has several brilliant classics: 2001 (and the other "year-titled" books), The Fountains of Paradise (explores space elevators) and the Rama series.

      Of course those are just favourites of mine, YMMV. It's a daunting amount of SF out there, and a lot of it is crap, but it's immensely rewarding when you find something you really like.

      If you or anyone else can recommend other stories based on my recommendations, go ahead :)

      --
      Are you a grammar Nazi? I'm trying to improve my English; please correct my errors! :)
    13. Re:Oh my god! by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2

      The precession of the equinoxes and proper motion of stars means we'll have a new north star long before either happens. A series of them, actually.

      Not that a pole star is actually necessary anyway. There isn't a decent south polar star currently. For actual navigation rather than just direction finding, it's only slightly easier to use Polaris rather than any other star, it requires a special table, and you need at least one other star for a fix anyway.

    14. Re:Oh my god! by dwye · · Score: 2

      The precession of the equinoxes and proper motion of stars means we'll have a new north star long before either happens. A series of them, actually.

      Not that a pole star is actually necessary anyway. There isn't a decent south polar star currently.

      The North Star is a fairly recent thing. Isaac Asimov used "Shakespeare" quoting Julius Caesar calling himself as constant as the North Star to "prove" that Francis Bacon couldn't have ghosted that play, at least, because Bacon would have known that, due to the precession of the equinoxes, in Roman times the nearest star to the pole spot covered half of the range from horizon to zenith each night, and thus would never be called "the North Star." Of course, Asimov then pointed out that that argument also proved that he, Isaac Asimov, could not have written one of his juvenile books published under an alias, because of an equally simple mistake that surely a science writer as good as he was could never make (except that he did).

      Anyway, if Polaris was eaten by an interstellar space goat sometime in the past so that its light disappears tomorrow, we can still use the method which has worked since the Neolithic. The two stars in the pan of the Big Dipper (aka, the Wain or Wagon in The Odyssey) farthest from the handle (or tongue of the Wagon) line up to point to the pole point more exactly than a fairly dim star in a fairly dim constellation ever have, and will continue to do so for thousands of years more. One can also use two stars in Cassiopia to line up with the pole, but I cannot remember which two without being outside on a clear night (and thus away from this keyboard and my wifi signal).

  2. Pivot point by Lev13than · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's probably losing all that mass due to heat from friction. It must be under tremendous pressure, seeing as how the entire night sky pivots on that single point. Long-term this will have huge consequences - when the North Star finally wears through completely the entire universe will ricochet off into nothingness like a spinning top.

    --
    When you have nothing left to burn you must set yourself on fire
    1. Re:Pivot point by ColdWetDog · · Score: 4, Funny

      It's probably losing all that mass due to heat from friction. It must be under tremendous pressure, seeing as how the entire night sky pivots on that single point. Long-term this will have huge consequences - when the North Star finally wears through completely the entire universe will ricochet off into nothingness like a spinning top.

      Not to worry. Once we get our booster technology straightened out, we can send up a big can of WD-40.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    2. Re:Pivot point by Lev13than · · Score: 3, Funny

      Not to worry. Once we get our booster technology straightened out, we can send up a big can of WD-40.

      That's the first lesson in any basic astrophysics maintenance course - always keep your turtles oiled.

      --
      When you have nothing left to burn you must set yourself on fire
    3. Re:Pivot point by Chris+Burke · · Score: 4, Funny

      Don't forget the turtle wax.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
  3. Thank God! by johnvile · · Score: 4, Funny

    Thank God its not shedding the amount of gas a politician evacuates each year. It would be barley visible.

    --
    "What Are They Gonna Do When Were All Using Freenet"
    1. Re:Thank God! by LighterShadeOfBlack · · Score: 4, Funny

      Thank God its not shedding the amount of gas a politician evacuates each year. It would be barley visible.

      I know right! And then wheat would we do?

      --
      Spelling mistakes, grammatical errors, and stupid comments are intentional.
    2. Re:Thank God! by LighterShadeOfBlack · · Score: 4, Funny

      I apologise for that; I have a very rye sense of humour.

      --
      Spelling mistakes, grammatical errors, and stupid comments are intentional.
  4. Re:Cough. Earth's Mass?!? by icebike · · Score: 4, Informative

    Mass of the sun is 330,000 times the mass of earth.

    So if it were losing an Earth-Mass yearly it would have had to be 7 times as massive as today at the beginning of the Pleistocene, and would only have a life expectancy of about 330,001 years left.

    The Sun appears to have been active for 4.6 billion years and has enough fuel to go on for another Five billion years or so..

    So I think you may have lost a few digits (in the exponents) when making your calculations.

    --
    Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
  5. Thanks a lot "Name a star, buy a star" by GauteL · · Score: 2

    After decades of overselling the North Star, is there any wonder there's so little of it left?

  6. Re:Cough. Earth's Mass?!? by ackthpt · · Score: 3, Informative

    Polaris is listed, at least in Wikipedia, at 7.54 solar masses. Also, it is a ternary system: one large star, a smaller star and a white dwarf.

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
  7. Does this mean victory for the Southern Cross? by Kenja · · Score: 3, Funny

    Does this mean victory for the Southern Cross fighting style? Or am I just too much of a nerd so no one will understand the reference?

    --

    "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
  8. Re:Cough. Earth's Mass?!? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It goes to credibility, your honour. FFS, he presents facts and you jump on him whilst idiot anons get +whatever insightful/informative.

    Go suck on a lemon, will ya?

  9. Re:Damn... by mark-t · · Score: 4, Funny

    Indeed... everyone knows that the first magnets fell to earth from that star, which is why it always experienced a small tug in that direction. Future magnets inherited this trait by mimicking the original magnets' functionality, which was to adhere strongly to certain types of metals.

  10. Re:Damn... by Ugarte · · Score: 2

    Fucking magnets, so *that's* how they work!

  11. Re:Cough. Earth's Mass?!? by jamstar7 · · Score: 2

    Among other things, it shows an explaination for the mass lossage. The mass might be feeding the smaller star or the white dwarf.

    --
    Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
  12. Re:What does it mean for Christians? by grahamsaa · · Score: 2

    Um, Christ died about 2,000 years ago.

    --
    Facts have a liberal bias.
  13. Re:What does it mean for Christians? by O('_')O_Bush · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I don't know what mythos you are referring to, but I doubt it will affect anyone outside your sect.

    Besides, Catholics don't speak for all Christianity, and their mythos is radically different from anyone elses. Most denominations that I know don't teach that the north star has any added significance.

    --
    while(1) attack(People.Sandy);
  14. Release the Chaff! by fyngyrz · · Score: 3, Funny

    There's a grain (or at least a germ) of truth in each of those posts. Kind of a cereal furrow of truthiness, just plowing along, planting seeds of doubt, perhaps to just lie farro, but then again, maybe knot.

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  15. Don't worry by wbr1 · · Score: 2

    For celestial navigation after it has waned away, you can use the new spiffy Dark Matter Detector 5000 (Copyright Garmin). It points whichever way the scientific wind is blowing.

    --
    Silence is a state of mime.
  16. Re:What does it mean for Christians? by Mogster · · Score: 3, Informative

    Hrmm I'm Catholic and have a degree in theology. And this is the first time I've ever heard that the star of Bethlehem is supposed to be Polaris - it's certainly not part of the general 'mythos' as you put it

    General teaching is that the Star of Bethlehem only hung around until not long after the Wise men left. And from a more scientific viewpoint if it's true then it was likely a supernova

    --
    ACK NAK RST
  17. Re:What does it mean for Christians? by mjperson · · Score: 2

    Um no. The Christmas star was seen in the East, not the North. The North star has nothing to do with Christ. It never has.

  18. Relativity Speaking by Niscenus · · Score: 5, Informative

    A solar mass is over 300,000 Earths, and Polaris is atleast 7 solar masses, adjusting for the most conservative of all estimates. It's apparent magnitude is about 1.9, while the magnitude of drop off (nolonger visible to the human eye) is defined at 7 (with 6 being relatively hard except under good conditions).

    Setting aside the nuclear chemistry that will occur in the meantime (which tends to increase brightness), that Polaris is, in fact, multiple stars and the overall reduction of radiative and mass pressure that will be reducing the production/consumption rate*, I would posit even losing half of its mass, it would likely still be visible in 2000 years, which means the Northern Star will have since switched to Gamma Cephei.

    So, no big loss here. Personally, I, for one, welcome our new Alrainian OverStar.

    ****
    *You know what, I'm actually going to do these in the coming weeks. This is sound like a fun problem, even though I do a lot more in theoretical particle physics than cosmology.

    --
    "Yeah...it was the numbers that were irrational, not the murderous cult of vegetarians...." -- Hippasus of Metapontum
  19. Re:What does it mean for Christians? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    I've been to 3 separate universities where, in the restrooms in the science wings, above the toilet paper dispenser, was a note reading "theology degree. Please take one".

  20. Re:What does it mean for Christians? by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

    There was a philosopher/political activist/very naughty boy with the same name who died around the same time. Perhaps you're talking at cross purposes?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  21. Some trivia about the "Star of Bethlehem" by wfstanle · · Score: 2

    There is some more interesting trivia about the "Star of Bethlehem" mythology.

    1. The "Star of Bethlehem" was supposed to be in the east. We all know that the stars appear to move from the east to west through the night. Stars appearing in the north appear to circle around the north star. and really can't be describes as appearing in the east. How can it be that any star, except Polaris, can appear to be fixed in the sky?

    2. According to legend, the magi were wise men that came from the orient, and followed the "Star of Bethlehem". If the magi came from a location that was somewhere east of Bethlehem, and they were following a star that appeared in the east, they would be going in a westward direction. How did they get to Bethlehem? They would have to circle the globe to do that!

    Just some riddles to think about. The story of the "Star of Bethlehem" is not an important belief of Christianity. However for fundies, it is in the Bible so they have to believe that it is exactly the way it happened. They have some explaining to do. There are more inconsistencies in that story, if you just think about it a bit.

    1. Re:Some trivia about the "Star of Bethlehem" by currently_awake · · Score: 2

      The wise men were likely arab merchants who used celestial (stars) navigation to reach the places where they traded. To the illiterate peasants who formed early christianity their method of navigation would sound like "We followed a holy sign, a glowing star in the night sky!".