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Carbohydrate-Based Synthesis To Replace Petroleum Derived Hydrocarbons?

someWebGeek writes "From PhysOrg's 'Taking biofuel from forest to highway,' University of British Columbia biofuel expert Jack Saddler says, 'we will become less dependent on fossil fuels and will become more dependent on fuels made from the sugars and chemicals found in plants.' Nothing too new there; the idea of biofuels eventually taking over from petroleum distillates has been around for ages. However, Saddler contends further that 'Similar to an oil refinery that processes crude oil to make thousands of supplementary products like plastics, dyes, paints, etc., the biorefinery would use leftover agricultural and forest material to make many of the same products, but from a sustainable and renewable resource.' I remember my organic chem instructor back in '81 telling us that eventually the textbooks would have to be rewritten. There would be no presumption of fractional distillation of thousands of basic compounds from petroleum, and the teaching emphasis would shift to synthesis from simple hydrocarbons. He noted that we'd all miss 'the good, ole days' when synthetic fibers, plastics, etc. were cheap... or even an economically viable option. I can live without rayon, but, dang, I'm gonna miss polyvinyl chloride!"

166 comments

  1. Factor in one more thing though? by Fluffeh · · Score: 3, Insightful

    While this is great and makes sense - I can't see this happening until much later in the peak oil scenario.

    Fabricating all (most) of the stuff we make from oil now from plant matter will be a much less efficient operation and require much much more energy inserted during the production/refining process - which will of course make it much more expensive and inefficient to do. With that, I can't see it happening on any sort of serious scale until we have started running out of oil sands - let alone oil wells.

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    1. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by vlm · · Score: 0

      Fabricating all (most) of the stuff we make from oil now from plant matter will be a much less efficient operation and require much much more energy inserted during the production/refining process - which will of course make it much more expensive and inefficient to do. With that, I can't see it happening on any sort of serious scale until we have started running out of oil sands - let alone oil wells.

      Google for EROEI and maybe theoildrum.com re-evaluate. If you have to burn 10 barrels equivalent of crude oil to make 1 barrel equivalent of food grade veg oil, then what is the break even point? (And no, I very unfortunately do not have that backwards)

      --
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    2. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There are many companies out there making these sorts of things *today*. Very few are profitable. They quickly figure out it takes energy to make the sort of energy we use now. Pumping it out of the ground is *FAR* cheaper and nearly ready to rock. You have a huge curve to get over from nearly free.

      Until pumping oil out of the ground becomes more expensive than making energy this will remain true.

    3. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by djlowe · · Score: 1

      Fabricating all (most) of the stuff we make from oil now from plant matter will be a much less efficient operation and require much much more energy inserted during the production/refining process - which will of course make it much more expensive and inefficient to do.

      While I don't have the background to refute this, it makes sense to me, but only when you consider the fuel production side of the equation.

      It seems to me that there are other factors that might make up, in part or whole, for the lessened efficiency: Can the waste product(s) of using plant matter used to create biofuels be reclaimed and used elsewhere? To make paper, or perhaps clothing? Fertilizer? Feed?

      Were that the case, it seems to me that overall efficiency would be improved for other industries, simply by using "waste" from one process as raw materials for another, and another.. and another, so far as possible/efficient/practical.

      If there's anyone on Slashdot that has more knowledge than I about this, I'd love to read more about it from an expert point of view.

      Regards,

      dj

    4. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

      If crude oil costs $100/bbl and you had to burn 10 of them to make 1bbl of veg oil, veg oil would have to cost $1000/bbl, or $23/gal. Right now you can get veg oil for $5/gal as some place like Costco.

      dom

    5. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by evil_aaronm · · Score: 1

      Google came up with something about "Old McDonald had a farm..." WTF...?

      Oh - you said, "EROEI," not "EIEIO". My bad...

    6. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      EROEI is a very useful metric for energy sources. The less your product resembles energy generation, the less usefull it is. As far as I know, plastics don't resemble energy generation at all.

      By the way, what would you use as the numerator when calculating the EROEI of a kilogram of PET?

    7. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Fluffeh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Can the waste product(s) of using plant matter used to create biofuels be reclaimed and used elsewhere? To make paper, or perhaps clothing? Fertilizer? Feed?

      Biofuels would not be likely. If they are trying to make oil replacements, then the majority of the energy contained in the plant matter would be going into oil replacement. The problem is that the very high energy density of oil/petroleum products are the exact thing that makes it appealing. Breaking the carbon chains in oil releases a very large amount of energy proportional to the amount of fuel. Granted, there are much more energy dense forms of fuel - but they are also very expensive. To make something that can store as much energy as oil from something like plants will always require that a lot of energy is inserted - so that later when the fuel is used it releases more. While it isn't impossible and is being improved all the time, it still basically requires the right fungus/bacteria/whatever to convert from low energy plant matter to something that is usable for us.

      Sorry not to use a car analogy, but this one is much more fitting: Consider oil to be steak and plant matter to be plant matter. Currently we are able to drill for steak and eat it. It is a great source of energy for us. Sadly, our supplies of steak are starting to run a bit low. Now, someone comes along with a cow and says that they can convert normal grass into steak with this beast that wanders around eating grass and converting it into much higher energy dense food. The problem is that for this cow thing to make steak, it has to slowly wander around, eating huge amounts of grass and then very slowly over many years convert that plant matter into meat. This is the exact same scenario, but rather than having to wait years for a cow to make steak, oilfields are created over many, many thousands of years.

      To make a high density fuel (basically something that we want and is useful) that energy had to be inserted at some point. If someone can work out how to make a cheap, clean energy source that doesn't require a vast investment of time waiting for it to mature - then there will be nobel prizes, presidential handshakes and all the gratitude of the world waiting for them.

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    8. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by TheInternetGuy · · Score: 5, Informative

      If you have to burn 10 barrels equivalent of crude oil to make 1 barrel equivalent of food grade veg oil

      I have read and heard this so many time here on Slashdot now, and I am gonna call you on it.
      If it takes a ratio of 10:1, crude to produce vegetable oil. Then how come a cheap vegetable oil can be found for a 3-4 bucks a gallon?
      While the cost of 10 gallon of crude costs 30-40 dollars?
      Are the producers just giving us all that crude for free out of the goodness of their hearts?
      Seriously people use your brains, think for your selves.

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    9. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by way2trivial · · Score: 1

      have no clue if you had a point??

      at 42 gallons to the barrel though, that is $210 for your veg oil....

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    10. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      not to mention it would be much more environmentally destructive to leave perfectly good oil (that has no other good purpose) just lying in the ground while we go out and rape the earth of flora and fauna for fuel.

    11. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      also, consider this:
      as we rely less on oil, the price of oil will drop (less demand). so, at best, the BioOilers will barely gain 10-yards, then the Oilers will get an interception and move the ball back 10 yards. then the BioOilers will get an interception and the game goes on like so until oil simply can't keep up with the demand (peak oil). at that point, there will be so many hungry mouths to feed on this over-populated planet that we better hope we can create biofuel from our own excrement, maybe even our dead.

      it is a common phrase that modern civilization is addicted to oil. however, everyone seems to end the analogy and analysis at oil. we have to ask ourselves 'what is an addict?' and if you take a crack addict, substitute alcohol for crack, and the crack addict lives, he's still an addict. now he's an alcohol addict. so, to continue the 'addict' analogy...is the substance being abused the problem or is problem somewhere in the user? what causes the user to use these substances? what is he trying to cope with? is the substance abuse a means of minimizing pain or maximizing pleasure? can those motivations be managed without drugs?

    12. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by tirefire · · Score: 1

      Currently we are able to drill for steak and eat it.

      Quoted for truth.

    13. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      A barrel of crude is 42 gallons. So one barrel of crude would make, by your calculations, about 4 gallons of vegetable oil. At current prices of $105/gallon, that would be a cost of about $26 her gallon of vegetable oil.

      However, I believe those 10-to-1 figures are for energy, not volume. According to wikipedia, a gallon of crude oil is a standard measurement: 1.7 MWh. Per gallon, that's 40.4 kWh. I can't readily find the energy in vegetable oil from google, however a quick conversion from calories (120 kcal/tbsp = 80,832 kcal/gal) gives us 94 kWh/gal.

      That's quite a but more per gallon, giving us only 1.8 gallons of vegetable oil per barrel of crude oil, raising the cost to $56.66 per gallon. Obviously these figures aren't right.

      Is that the whole story? Let's consider how vegetable oil is made. Corn oil is rather cheap, so let's look at it. You have to extract the oil from the germ of the corn. Wikipedia again tells us that one bushel of corn yields 1.55 pounds of oil. One bushel is 35.24 L dry. Corn oil has a density of 9.25 g/c^3 (g/mL). Conversions (9.25 g/mL = 77.2 lbs/gal).

      Phew! So that 35.24 L (one bushel) of dry corn only yields .02 of a gallon of corn oil! So you need FIFTY bushels of corn to yield one gallon of corn oil!

      How much energy is in 50 bushels of corn? Conversions again: one cup of corn (raw) is 132 kcal. So that's 2112 kcal/gal. A bushel is defined as 8 gallons dry, so there are 16,896 kcal/bushel of raw corn. 50 bushels of corn means you need 844,800 kcal of corn to make one gallon of corn oil, which is only 80,832 kcal.

      There's your missing energy. You need about 10.5 calories of corn for every calorie of corn oil. Or to put it another way, you need 982.5 kWh of corn energy to produce 94 kWh of corn oil energy.

      Take our earlier estimate of 10-to-1 gallon-for-gallon of $56.66, divide by 10.5, and you get a much more reasonable $5.40 for a gallon of corn oil. Figure in some government subsidies, and differences in the two markets and some market fluctuations, and you are very close to your $4 a gallon bulk price for vegetable oil.

      Use your brain, think for yourself, but be sure you have all he data and knowledge you need to draw a valid conclusion. The 10-to-1 figure is a general estimate that I just demonstrated is reasonably accurate. Adjust your tinfoil hat and start scrutinizing your conspiracy theories a little more closely. :)

    14. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Farm subsidies.

    15. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Arterion · · Score: 2

      I just wrote a long post explaining it, and somehow I wasn't logged in, it got posted as AC, and now it's not here anymore. I am very frustrated because I spent about 20 minutes doing calculations.

      Here's the gist of what I had put:

      The 10-to-1 figure is for energy, not volume.

      A barrel of crude is 42 gallons and has 1.7 MWh of energy. Current market price is $105 per barrel. That's 40.5 kWh/gal. Corn oil has 94 kWh/gal. (Calculated from 120 kcal/tbsp.)

      That would mean you could make 1.8 gal of corn oil from a barrel of crude, and corn oil should cost $56.66/gal, but you're saying you can get it for $4, I assume in bulk. So what's the problem? Consider how corn oil is produced: You extract the oil from the germ of the kernel. The remainder of the corn is not useful for oil. That's the part your missing. Here's the calculations on that:

      According to wikipedia, a bushel of corn yiels 1.55 lbs of corn oil. Corn oil has a density of 77lbs/gal. So in other words you need 50 bushels of corn to make one gallon of corn oil! A bushel is 8 dry gallons. Raw corn has 132 kcal/cup. That means that 50 bushels of corn has 844,800 kcal of energy, or 982.5 kWh.

      So there's your answer: it takes 982.5 kWh of corn to make 94 kWh of corn OIL. A factor of 10.5. Pretty close to the 10-to-1 figure. Divide our $56.66 cost by 10.5, and you get a much more reasonable $5.40/gal. Figure in some government agriculture subsidies and oil subsidies, some market economics between the two goods, sales of corn byproduct (they don't just discard the portions not used for oil) and you have something very close to your supermarket price on vegetable oil. The 10-to-1 number is just an estimate, but it's a pretty darn good one.

      Adjust your tin foil hat. :)

      --
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    16. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Arterion · · Score: 1

      And of course, now I see I've posted this twice. Haha. My bad!

      Oh well, my karma is excellent, I don't need to be modded up, I guess. :D1

      --
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    17. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by wierd_w · · Score: 1

      That makes an unfortunate presumption that the energy must come from compustion, and not some other source.

      Energy comes in more forms than black gold my friend. The problem is getting people to stop measuring energy in "equivalent barrels of oil". Energy is better measured in units designed for it, like joules.

      When you agnosticize the unit, and permit non-oil energy sources for the reaction, and further eliminate the notion of creating the oil for the purposes of combustion (the whole idea is to stop doing that!) Then the real baseline costs of synthetic synthesis of plastics and solvents from vegetable oils becomes clear.

      As long as you use self-refferential units, and purposefully confuse the issue by using them, any amount of non-fossil fuel energy in the supply chain will produce lopsided numbers.

      Let's say, for the sake of argument, that there are 50,000 joules of energy in 1 gal of an unspecified refined petrolium fuel. There are 55gal of this in a standard chemical barrel. We'll set this as the "oil equivilent" unit for energy.

      (2,750,000 joules per barrel. These figures do not correspond to a real fuel oil. They are ficticious.)

      Let's say it takes the stated 10x energy to refine a vegetable oil into said fuel oil. This means we need 27,500,000 joules of energy to accomplish this task.

      So, we realize "we will never be able to continue with combustion energy with these figures! We *must* abandon combustion as the energy source!"

      We still want to make the 55gal of fuel oil, because it has value as more than just fuel. We use it to make life saving plastics, and durable synthetic textiles. Having exhausted natural petrolium, we have no choice but to make it this way.

      Sunlight on earth has an energy density of 1350W/M^2. ((1350)(joules/sec)/(M^2))

      This means that with 100% efficiency (a pipedream!), you need only approx 6 square meters and 1 hour of time to produce the "equivilent" of 550 gallons of fuel oil energy needed for the synthesis.

      The most efficient cells are closer to 30%, and consumer grade is closer to 10% efficient. This means we need 10x as much collection surface to get the required energy. So, 60 square meters, over 1 hour.

      When we work this into the equasion, we have gotten 10x the energy of the oil without any form of combustion. However, because we are measuring in "barrels of oil equivilent", we have the impossible situation of 10x the energy "created", being "burned" to perform that creation. This is nonsense, since no fuel at all was burned (unless you count solar mass as fuel, but that's just being pedantic.) This why we should measure as joules to begin with, and not obfuscate the issue.

      "But producing only 550gal equivilent of energy in an hour, of which only 6 to 8 hours of the day are useful, does not yeild enough energy/M^2 density to power our civilization!"

      No shit sherlock. You need neuclear for that! Modern reactors (news flash, fukushima is *not* a modern design!) Are able to reprocess their waste products many times over, and produce very little high level waste. They have energy densities that make fossil fules look quaint, and can use fairly common isotopes as fuels. It is the only stopgap energy that is viable as a bandaid while we research fusion that can satisfy the immediate power needs.

      Remember, we are creating the 55gals of oil as a feedstock for creating plastics. *not as fuel*.

      "What about my car!? Chemical batteries don't appear plausible enough to ever have densities rivaling fossil fuels! What will I put in my vehicle!? I can't drive to work with an extension cord behind me!"

      Quite right. But you know what? There are several "reasonably safe" radio isotopes that you can built a very high energy primary atomic battery out of. Carbon 14 for instance... or, if you want a refuelable powercell, liquid tritium.

      Those are both beta emitters that release electrons as the decay particles. Integrating them into a high temperature, high bandgap semiconductor with ad

    18. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by loosescrews · · Score: 1

      There are two things that you are forgetting. First one gallon of crude oil does not make one gallon of gas. That, and all of the energy that is required to turn the crude oil into gas makes gas much more expensive than crude oil. Secondly, corn, and by extension, corn oil, is highly subsidized in the US. Corn is a major ingredient in most "vegetable oil" and fuel grade ethanol in the US. Please note, I do not know whether or not you are right. I just had to make those two points.

    19. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by TheInternetGuy · · Score: 1

      OK, excellent work. I mean it. But that was not what vlm stated in his post, to which my post was an answer. Also what you fail to realize is that: A. The calories in the leftover from the pressed corn, is not lost and can be used for something else. It is not like they were evaporated or something. Still good for Animal feed, ethanol fuel production (yeah I know, not so popular that either right?) perhaps even that godawful bourbon that some people mistake for whiskey. B. I have never suggested that Vegetable oil is the most efficient way to use Bio Energy. C. If I were to use vegetable oil at all, I would most likely use something like rapeseed oil which yields at an ratio of 40% seed to oil ratio and allows for 950L oil to be produced on 1ha (102 gallon / acre). Or if climate allowed for it, palm oil which can yield over four times that amount per acre. D. If we leave the whole vegetable oil thing behind, then I would probably look at oil made from algae production in sewage. Although it might be easier to just extract the methane. E. And if we leave the whole liquid fuel/gas concept behind, then I would probably grow something suitable for direct(after drying) burning in thermal power plants. And run the car on electricity instead.

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    20. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Cryect · · Score: 3

      You are off by a factor of ten on the density of corn oil. 77 pounds per gallon should throw a red flag, since that is almost as heavy as lead. End result is corn oil has almost as much energy as the corn itself.

      http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_density_of_corn_oil

    21. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by TheInternetGuy · · Score: 1

      Ok one more time in POT format.

      OK, excellent work. I mean it. (Actually I meant it when I posted at first, bu now I saw the other post stating you are off by a factor of 10 on corn oil density, so that takes away quite a bit from the excellency)

      But that was not what vlm stated in his post, to which my post was an answer. Also what you fail to realize is that:
      A. The calories in the leftover from the pressed corn, is not lost and can be used for something else. It is not like they were evaporated or something. Still good for Animal feed, ethanol fuel production (yeah I know, not so popular that either right?) perhaps even that godawful bourbon that some people mistake for whiskey.
      B. I have never suggested that Vegetable oil is the most efficient way to use Bio Energy.
      C. If I were to use vegetable oil at all, I would most likely use something like rapeseed oil which yields at an ratio of 40% seed to oil ratio and allows for 950L oil to be produced on 1ha (102 gallon / acre). Or if climate allowed for it, palm oil which can yield over four times that amount per acre.
      D. If we leave the whole vegetable oil thing behind, then I would probably look at oil made from algae production in sewage. Although it might be easier to just extract the methane.
      E. And if we leave the whole liquid fuel/gas concept behind, then I would probably grow something suitable for direct(after drying) burning in thermal power plants. And run the car on electricity instead.

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    22. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      If someone can work out how to make a cheap, clean energy source that doesn't require a vast investment of time waiting for it to mature

      We already have that part in the form of solar thermal. Infinite free and clean energy. The problem is storing it, basically we need better batteries that charge fast and have a higher energy density.

      We should be throwing money at developing better batteries.

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    23. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Xeranar · · Score: 1

      The problem isn't the cost of a barrel of veg oil vs. a barrel of crude, the issue is production to run things. Ultimately we'll need to balance our energy needs between the Big 4 (Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric, and Hydrogen). Biofuels are great but fall short of being able to cover the loss of oil as an energy source. Course I also support the Big 4 as a major turning point for humanity and wish for it to come sooner. It will be a great source for transportation though. I could totally see most cars in the future being equipped with small biofuel tanks (say 1-3 gallons) that would extend the range infinitely but would charge up using electricity from the Big 4 for most of their power.

    24. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Fluffeh · · Score: 1

      We already have that part in the form of solar thermal. Infinite free and clean energy.

      Not really. Our current technology in making solar cells is highly toxic and leaves a lot of waste behind. Sure, the energy that the solar cell itself makes is clean and infinite - if you don't take into account the degradation of the cell itself. but therin lies the problem. Photovoltic cells degrade over time and produce less and less charge. Solar thermal plants produce many by-products in their upkeep and regular maintenance.

      Even keeping all this at bay, batteries are still a problem. We do indeed have a problem with storing the energy that these things generate. If we are to truly move on, there needs to be a paradigm shift in our needs and wants.

      Our current potential to produce clean energy comes with crests and troughs. Wind isn't always there, and solar cycles on a regular basis. As a society, we would be much better to accept the fact that until we throw money at developing better batteries and that research matures an order of magnitude past where we are now (liquid salt and pumping water to and from basically), we need to curb our strain on our power usage.

      I agree with the parent poster, we need to be able to store the clean energy that we use. The current drawback of taking coal, gas and oil power stations offline is the base load - that minimum current that cannot be met by our clean energy solutions - hence why we keep these horridly polluting stations running all the time.

      if you want to invest money into making things green, I agree with the parent - you can invest in batteries. However, if you want to make a long term solution, then invest in room temperature superconductors. If the civilisation on this planet can make a global grid to alllow the flow of renewable energy to constantly flow around the planet - send solar power where the sun isn't shiniing, send wind power where the wind isn't blowing - then we can indeed make clean, renewable and sustainable energy.

      Please, if you have the money to invest - invest in batteries as the parent suggest, or invest in being able to pass the current around so that it gets to everywhere it is needed through a superconductor. Either way, please invest in one or the other. You will be doing the earth an amazing favour.

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    25. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      Hydroelectric is maxed out in the US, and hydrogen isn't an energy source at all, just a possible storage mechanism. Wind and solar alone will never meet our energy needs. It actually takes more energy to transport food than it does to grow it, and your brave new world can't get food to the grocery store on 3 gallons of biofuel.

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    26. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by xrobertcmx · · Score: 1

      1 Barrel of Crude oil is 42 Gallons at a cost of ~$105.00 per barrel. 1 Barrel of Corn oil at 42 Gallons currently costs $464.92 retail.* I don't have an opinion either way, but 10:1 can't be correct except in possibly talking about an energy economy. * Cost based on the current listing of 1 barrell of Mazola Corn oil as found at Costco. http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?prodid=10250822&whse=BD_823&topnav=bd&cat=10702&hierPath=10035*&lang=en-US

    27. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Mr.+Slippery · · Score: 1

      Wind and solar alone will never meet our energy needs.

      Wind alone can meet our energy needs: offshore wind potential in the U.S. is 900,000 MW, which is just about equivalent to our current generation capacity. Add solar, and efficiency improvements and a wind-solar world is in our reach.

      It actually takes more energy to transport food than it does to grow it

      Incorrect. While this is an article of faith among "localvores", in point of fact food production and processing uses more energy. According to the Worldwatch Institute, 17 percent of U.S. fossil fuel consumption goes to "the production and consumption of food: 6 percent for crop and livestock production, 6 percent for processing and packaging, and 5 percent for distribution and cooking." More information on energy use in food production here.

      Buying locally produced food is not really meaningful (ecologically speaking), compared with the need to shift away from animal agriculture and processed foods and towards less-processed plant-based diets. (Which are also far more healthful.)

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    28. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Good catch!

    29. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      Wind alone can meet our energy needs: offshore wind potential in the U.S. is 900,000 MW, which is just about equivalent to our current generation capacity. Add solar, and efficiency improvements and a wind-solar world is in our reach.

      False. This ignores the nature of power generated by wind energy, as well as the issues related to storage for peak use and transporting power inland 2,000 miles. The tractor trailers used to for distribution of just about every consumer good are nowhere near being able to run on anything but diesel

      Incorrect. While this is an article of faith among "localvores", in point of fact food production and processing uses more energy. According to the Worldwatch Institute,

      Worldwatch Institute has an agenda (similar to yours, I assume), and have cooked the numbers to make it look like transportation of food is irrelevant. Incorrect. Throwing in every packing plant, processing plant, retailer and building and the energy for those is disingenuous at best, but also doesn't address my point, which compared GROWING food with TRANSPORTING it. And, yes, transportation requires more, irregardless of whatever energy is used in our current over-processed (and lightly poisoned) food supply.

      Buying locally produced food is not really meaningful (ecologically speaking), compared with the need to shift away from animal agriculture and processed foods and towards less-processed plant-based diets.

      I can't live on plants - I'm not a rabbit, I'm a human being. I support local, organic farmers because Monsanto and ADM and their ilk are poisoning our food and cannot be trusted to keep food available, much less safe. Not to mention that the infrastructure required to maintain food supplies in urban areas is already fragile enough - increasing dependence on transportation of food even greater distances and control of it in even less hands is a very serious risk to peoples' food security.

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    30. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Our current technology in making solar cells is highly toxic and leaves a lot of waste behind.

      Newer technology does not. Organic solar cells in particular.

      Solar thermal plants produce many by-products in their upkeep and regular maintenance.

      No they don't. What by-products are you talking about?

      Plus you don't just have to generate electricity, you can use it on your house to heat water.

      Wind isn't always there, and solar cycles on a regular basis.

      Do some research. There are plenty of places on earth where wind is completely reliable, 356 days of the year. It never stops so all you need is sufficient capacity for the lowest speed. If these winds did ever stop we would have bigger things to worry about.

      As for solar it doesn't matter that the sun goes down, solar thermal works all through the night. Energy is stored in the molten salt. As such it is actually an ideal and extremely reliable way to meet both base and peek demand.

      that minimum current that cannot be met by our clean energy solutions

      Even if you don't accept that solar and wind are capable you can't deny that the various forums of hydro and geothermal are.

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      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    31. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      Stop spreading the FUD from the Heartland Institute. Studies have shown that Wind power can generate more than enough power for the planet.

      Best learn about TCO - Total Cost of Ownership. Alot if energy is used in growing food.

      Human beings on omnivores - which means we can live on plant or animals. So while you may not be a rabbit, you can lives on plants.

    32. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      Human beings on omnivores - which means we can live on plant or animals. So while you may not be a rabbit, you can lives on plants.

      Aside from the typos in your claim, it's false. Humans require meat and animal products, milk and eggs at a minimum, for a healthy diet. No plant natively contains all the essential amino acids required for human nutrition. And I refuse to give up natural food for heavily processed ones (which is the only way to get adequate proteins from tofu - still a lower-quality protein than from meat and fish).

      And bacon. I needs me some bacon.

      --
      "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
      --- Jerry Garcia
    33. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      Studies have shown that Wind power can generate more than enough power for the planet.

      Is this like the "studies" that have shown gerbils on treadmills can generate all the power we need?

      There are so many problems with this assertion I don't know where to begin. Wind is intermittent, and wind farms usually have two power ratings: A capacity number, and a capacity factor number. The capacity of a wind farm might be 300 megawatts, but how much electricity it will actually produce depends on many factors, and if you look at the average production of all those wind turbines over a certain period of time - usually a year - and you divide that number by the maximum capacity of all those wind turbines, you get the capacity factor number. So for example, if the 300 megawatt wind farm is operating at 30% capacity, it would be producing an average of 100 megawatts at any time. But this doesn't mean that you can count on 100 megawatts coming out; on some day it might be 300, and on others it might be 30. This is a problem not only because you need to build many more wind turbines than the capacity numbers might lead you to believe (and the media usually reports capacity numbers, not capacity factors), but also because of the way the power grid works, which means there needs to be capacity somewhere else to make up for the reduced wind farm output.

      So you might have many wind farms over a large area, so when there is less wind one place the grid can draw from where there is greater wind somewhere else. But the grid has to balance supply and demand at all times, so if bad luck has it that there's no or little wind over most of your wind farms on the same day, you still have a problem.

      That's not to say we shouldn't be building wind farms at all, only that you need to be realistic about what can be accomplished, and stop giving people unrealistic expectations about what can be done.

      --
      "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
      --- Jerry Garcia
    34. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by phoenix321 · · Score: 1

      barrel, gallons, $/gallon, MWh, kWh, kcal/tbsp, kcal/gal, kWh/gal, bushel, pounds, L g/c^3, g/mL, lbs/gal,
      bushels/gallon, kcal, kcal/gal, kcal/bushel

      You guys need to lay off those medieval units and stop wasting 60% of your clock cycles on UNIT CONVERSION.

    35. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by kilfarsnar · · Score: 1

      Humans require meat and animal products, milk and eggs at a minimum, for a healthy diet. No plant natively contains all the essential amino acids required for human nutrition.

      And bacon. I needs me some bacon.

      Humans do not in any way require meat, milk or eggs for a healthy diet. Avocado, quinoa, and soybeans each contain all of the essential amino acids the body needs. Besides that, combining vegetarian foods can supply one with plenty of essential amino acids; like the famous beans and rice, or peanut butter on whole wheat bread. Saying we need milk is a little silly, considering it is produced by a completely different species for its own young. If you think about it, drinking milk is actually a little strange; ours is the only species that drinks the milk of other species. Although, I completely agree about the bacon. We do need bacon.

      Full disclosure: I am an omnivore, and eat meat, eggs and dairy. I just recognize that I do it for reasons of convenience, taste and culture, not necessity.

      --
      "What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
    36. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Curunir_wolf · · Score: 1

      Humans do not in any way require meat, milk or eggs for a healthy diet. Avocado, quinoa, and soybeans each contain all of the essential amino acids the body needs.

      No, they don't.

      or peanut butter on whole wheat bread.

      Like many others (sometimes estimated at 15% of the population), I cannot tolerate gluten, which severely restricts the vegetable protein available to us.

      Saying we need milk is a little silly, considering it is produced by a completely different species for its own young. If you think about it, drinking milk is actually a little strange; ours is the only species that drinks the milk of other species.

      Yet human digestion has evolved, in most people, to break down lactose and utilize animal milk as an important source of nutrition, protein, and good fats.

      --
      "Somebody has to do something. It's just incredibly pathetic it has to be us."
      --- Jerry Garcia
    37. Re:Factor in one more thing though? by Xeranar · · Score: 1

      Hydroelectric on a large scale is maxed out. We have many small scale choices to use. Hydrogen is our greatest future asset in storing power from both the sun and wind. Ultimately I look at the reality of our lives requiring far less power as the way out of a great deal of this issue. In the past 5 years has been the first time in history electrical consumption went down on average as CFLs took over for regular incandescent light bulbs. With power savings occurring in each new device we buy for mobility and access we get closer to a much lower consumption overall.

      As for transportation, the future is in rail for large-scale movement with only the last miles done by trucks. Electric railways are incredibly cheap to operate and cost pennies on the dollar versus diesel trucks. The problem is the infrastructure isn't there but will be by the end of our lives. If anything I stand by the reality that our system will change but won't collapse. We're a tough species and the chance to overcome this will be our greatest achievement to date.

  2. Death Throes by __aaeihw9960 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    One has to wonder just how hard the petroleum industry will fight these developments, though.

    1. Re:Death Throes by 0123456 · · Score: 3, Informative

      One has to wonder just how hard the petroleum industry will fight these developments, though.

      Until we have a better means of producing the carbohydrates, I'm guessing you'll see more death throes from the people who are starving because of the food we'r'e not growing.

    2. Re:Death Throes by gatkinso · · Score: 2

      They will fight it as long as it is more profitable for them to exploit their existing manufacturing base for crude oil.

      --
      I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
    3. Re:Death Throes by tragedy · · Score: 1

      Except of course that there's tons of land that isn't suitable for growing food crops that we can use to grow crops for industrial material. There's quite a lot of contaminated land out there, for example.

    4. Re:Death Throes by siddesu · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If this is profitable, "the petroleum industry" will most likely not fight it, but adapt and probably become large investor and user of this technology (probably ruining many ecosystems in some poorer countries as a side effect). The oil processing multinationals (not the well owners, these are mostly state-owned in feudal countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia) have been considering the "peak oil" and what it means to them long before it became a fashionable topic on the internets. They realize that the less oil there is, the more vulnerable they are.

      They got a taste of it after the oil rose significantly after certain events from 2003 onwards. Many oil-exporting countries started to re-evaluate their contracts with the big oil multinationals. Competition for the wells from companies from rising developing countries is increasing, and control of technology may not be a very viable option.

      So, everyone in the field seems to have some alternative strategy. Some have invested heavily in shale oil, some in underwater extraction, some in biomass, some in totally unrelated stuff. You can fully expect that if this thing shows promise beyond an article on physorg.com many will look into it.

    5. Re:Death Throes by Colourspace · · Score: 1

      Very much so - but no points to mod you up I'm afraid. Some will adapt and survive, some will die, alternate strategies or not. And there will be some players in future we don't know of yet thriving too. We need to get used to this idea - no corp ever lasts forever, the most interesting question is who will live and who will die? Short term arguments about patents are trivial - who do we think is really going to be around in 100 years in anything like their current guise? Love to know

    6. Re:Death Throes by chadenright · · Score: 1

      And when we burn the fuel that was grown on contaminated land, it turns into contaminated air? Somehow I don't think that's going to be as popular as you expect. Not that the fuel we burn now doesn't emit contaminants, of course.

    7. Re:Death Throes by tragedy · · Score: 1

      The plant material will be heavily physically and chemically processed before being used in much the same way that crude oil is now. A good deal of the contaminated land I'm talking about is contaminated with petrochemicals or even natural crude oil in the first place. Given that the source materials for most of our current plastics and fuels are contaminated by definition already, using plants grown in contaminated soil shouldn't really be a problem. The crops won't meet standards for human consumption any more than crude oil will, but the final product should be no dirtier.

    8. Re:Death Throes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      my money is on coca-cola

  3. You won't miss polyvinyl chloride... by Troyusrex · · Score: 2

    It's not going anywhere. If bio-fuels do become economical the billions or trillions of barrels of petroleum that's left will be used for synthesis instead of for running cars and the like.

  4. End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Bonobo_Unknown · · Score: 3, Informative

    Oil isn't going away any time soon. The fact is that for a very long time after it no longer makes sense to burn oil for fuel that oil will be available and will still make economic sense to use as a precursor product for all of those complex compounds that currently can only be made from oil. Perhaps in the far, far future it will become necessary to reinvent processes to build these things out of other precursors, but not for a long time. There's still going to be plenty of that black gunk in the ground long after people stop being able to burn it to get from A to B.

    --
    We don't believe in radical loony monotheistic religions from the middle east -- we're Christians.
    1. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      Why wait?

      And yes, I know the answer is "money". But isn't waiting too much exactly what did put we in the situation we are now with energy? Let people research.

    2. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by MetalOne · · Score: 3, Interesting

      "Oil isn't going away any time soon". You know I really hope you're right. However, according to wikipedia, the 17 largest reserves total 1.3 trillion barrels. If I divide that by world usage of 88 million barrels per day, I get 40 years. Plus population growth is still happening and the third world is becoming more advanced. Of course eventually this oil will become harder to get, driving up its price and possibly slowing consumption. I believe expensive oil is going to severly impact this world. So while there still might be oil, will it be cheap enough and plentiful enough to prevent the complete collapse of society within the next 100 years. I would really like it if somebody could point me to a decent resource that will alleviate my fears. Sure we might find more oil. Everytime I hear about a big new discovery though, I just divide it by 88 million barrels a day, and I quickly realize that it is a truly insignificant discovery. Sometimes I hear the Canada tar sands will save us, but those reserves are in the above wikipedia figure. Some of the reserve life figures on wikipedia have a longer life time, but that is because the production is low relative to the 88 million barrels per day. In the next 70 years we could have twice as many people on this planet. How much oil will we need then?

    3. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Something that does not make economic sense, will never make sense. Oil is getting more expensive, so alternatives are becoming economically viable. Deeper, harder to exploit oil is also economically viable now.

    4. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe coal liquefaction, methane hydrates, nuclear, renewables?

    5. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I guess it depends on what you mean by "plenty of time". I don't think that less than 50 years for the end of the "cheap petroleum era" is "plenty of time". And a decade or two before supply starts declining is even closer. A decline in supply of a couple of percent a year after the peak could be pretty economically painful.

    6. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The important thing to note about tar sands is reserves are only counted once they are "proven." For conventional oil this just means reserves have been found. But for oil sands, discovery is not enough to be considered "proven." Only until the site is actively under development will it count in worldwide oil reserves.

    7. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Bonobo_Unknown · · Score: 1

      I am assuming that at some point in time that we will replace a substantial part of our energy needs with alternative sources.

      --
      We don't believe in radical loony monotheistic religions from the middle east -- we're Christians.
    8. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Bonobo_Unknown · · Score: 1

      I'm not saying wait, just correcting the notion that the day oil becomes too expensive to put into your car will also mean that oil won't be available for anything else.

      --
      We don't believe in radical loony monotheistic religions from the middle east -- we're Christians.
    9. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      Oil ISN'T going any anytime soon. Oil is created as a biological process of decomposition of organic matter.

      What's ending is the era of CHEAP, EASILY ACCESSIBLE oil. There's lot of oil, but it's going to get increasingly expensive to get at.

      In fact, we should get used to gas prices. Just 15 years ago oil prices bottomed out and we enjoyed $1/gallon gas. Now it's over $3 a gallon. Prior to the economic meltdown (which is responsible for keeping gas and oil prices low) we're seeing $4 a gallon. When the economic slump ends, I wouldn't be surprised if we start topping $5.

      Europeans already know the feeling.

      The goal is - what do you do? Do you just continue to hide and hope nothing goes wrong? Or do you start investing in cars and minicars with larger fuel economies instead of gas-guzzling SUVs? Hybrids? Electric vehicles (saving the gas car for long trips)?

      In fact, I'm pretty sure we'll start seeing societal changes - the critical factor determining how willing society is willing to change. Are people willing to start doing things that use less oil - give up their gas guzzling SUVs, going for smart cars and little electric runabouts? Or just go "screw it, I can pay it, so I DESERVE to drive this 10mpg beast!".

      Gas won't run out suddenly. It'll just increase in price, putting economic pressure on people to change. Those who refuse, if there is a lot of them, will end up finding society becomes an "us vs them" scenario and falls apart. Those that adapt - more compact cities, less urban sprawl, electric and alternately fueled vehicles, find life stays the same.

      And yes, while electric cars may not be practical for long trips, given study after study saying a significant majority of them can be handled with the range of current electric vehicles, they're probably practical. Save the gas car for those long family trips you do a few times a year.

      And there are also natural gas fueled vehicles - lots of natural gas out there (and fracking for oil has found even more).

      We're going to see more of these alternately fueled vehicles on the road soon enough - perhaps as soon as 10-15 years. Electric cars for the commute and errands, gas/propane/natural gas for the longer trips, and life will probably just be a tad cozier than it is now.

    10. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      Alternatively, we can replace a substantial part of our population with corpses. Both are viable strategies, we just need to decide which one we're going for.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    11. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Bonobo_Unknown · · Score: 1

      Well, yeah. I think the 'lots of corpses' option is the one which will eventuate if we don't find a cheap, alternative source of energy.

      --
      We don't believe in radical loony monotheistic religions from the middle east -- we're Christians.
    12. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And I'm assuming fairies or aliens are going to take care of us.

      It's fun to assume a problem will solve itself. But in the real world problems don't get solved until people acknowledge that there IS a problem, and the long-term implications of the peak and decline of oil production in the next couple of decades is a BIG problem. A >85 million barrel a day problem that most people take for granted. Worse, some people think we live in a magical world where resources aren't finite. This is the setup for a tragedy, not a fairy tale with a happy ending. Fortunately it's not too late for people to grow up and face the real world, one with an equal measure of hope *and* action.

      People could go ahead and assume that we'll somehow find an alternative to cheap oil. It makes a nice story that will let people sleep soundly at night. But I'd be more impressed with some actual work on the problem instead of wishful thinking.

    13. Re:End of oil for fuel != end of oil. by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      Except that people have been doing that calculation, and coming up with similar numbers for 80 years.

      Over the last 3 decades, we've consumed more than 3x the worlds TOTAL known reserves in 1976. And today's proven reserves are 2x what they were then.

      --
      -Styopa
  5. How many barrels of oil does it take by linatux · · Score: 1

    to make one barrel of biofuel?

    1. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by gatkinso · · Score: 1

      Recalling my thermodynamics class over two decades ago, I would say 1:1 if the biofuel is to be manufactured directly for use as fuel.

      However if it is recaptured from what is currently considered waste, then it can be assumed to be close to zero.

      --
      I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
    2. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by gatkinso · · Score: 1

      I meant to say > 1:1. Oops!

      --
      I am very small, utmostly microscopic.
    3. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Aren't those the lyrics to a Bob Dylan song?

    4. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by meerling · · Score: 1

      Nope, it's far far worse than that, and that's even if you only think in terms of thermodynamics since the raw material processing takes energy at each stage.

      Now from the articles I've seen on making bio-diesel that take into account the fuel used for farming a crop that's good for making bio-diesel you get only get about 3 units for every 2 units you expend with our current technologies. Ok, it is a net gain, but it's not what most of our industry would consider efficient, unless there were no other realistic choices. Now don't forget, you not only get the pollution from that one unit of bio-diesel you have to sell, but you also got if the other 2 you used to produce that one.

      Ok, now onto the pollution aspect. On the old standards of petroleum based internal combustion engine pollution tests, bio-diesel rates lower. Of course, those tests were designed for a particular set of pollutants & fuel combination. Bio-diesel is not the same. If you expand the range of pollutants testing, you find that bio-diesel tends to pump out more pollutants, just different ones. Maybe that can be improved with research & testing.

      Land use. The world food market is a messy place with problems involving distribution, inconsistent yields, and lots of other issues. We won't go into that mess, it's a whole argument on it's own. However, generating bio-diesel from crops is mostly using what would otherwise be food. You see, the portions of the crops we eat are the parts that are high in energy that can be easily converted to fuels for machines. It is possible to do this with the rest of the plants, but our current technologies totally suck at that, so it's a very low yield method and totally uneconomical at this time. There is a lot of research going on in attempts to change that, but they don't have an economically viable method to do so at this time. Until they do, your bio-diesel was food that somebody didn't get to eat.

      I've heard people suggest that we employ some of the land that's only marginal (or worse) for farming to farm crops for bio-diesel. Do you see the obvious problem there? That land sucks for farming, so you can't farm enough food off of it to make bio-diesel worth doing. There's a reason people aren't farming it in the first place. Although it could be land more useful for something else, which is again, a situation where they won't be farming there. I've even heard someone mentioning farming in contaminated lands. Ok, that's a little better, but you risk spreading the contamination, it's probably going to need extra steps to remove it from the product before you can sell it (cyanide in the ground is bad enough, cars spitting out cyanide in their exhaust is much worse.), as well as the additional testing and the knee-jerk reactions that various groups will have that will try to block you, even if you can prove your processing removes the risk of contamination. One more thing about contaminated lands, it's not that uncommon for crops to not grow well there, though that is completely dependent on the contamination type and level.
      One more thing to cover on land use, there would have to be a bugger-load-plus of land devoted to growing fuel if you intend to replace other sources. It takes a LOT of land to provide enough food to make enough bio-diesel to cover our current levels of fuel usage. I've seen estimates that place it at unavailable levels. (ie, needs more land for that purpose than is even available.) I don't remember what the numbers are, but you could look it, just like everything else I'm mentioning.

      If you don't like what I've written, want more information, or want to verify, just go look it up. Try to stick to the science sites. There's a simple reason for that. You see, most sites on these subjects are politically motivated to try and backup their point. Scientists on the other hand, are motivated to be right, even if it makes them unpopular with some group or another. Sure, they're human, and occasionally they make mistakes, or are swayed by one reason or another, bu

    5. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by sjames · · Score: 1

      How many barrels of oil does it take to make one barrel of oil? All that drilling, pumping, transporting, and refining isn't free!

    6. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yup. Just like ground source heat pumps. They are so inefficient that all of the books about simply moving heat from one side to the other with extremely high co-efficient are all lies.

    7. Re:How many barrels of oil does it take by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      i would not be so sure, i have air-conditioner using 1.2KW and doing 3KW worth of heating and everybody says that pumping hear from ground is more efficient than pumping it from air (like air-conditioner does)

  6. Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by tp1024 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Who are you kidding? Wood for heating and charcoal for iron smelters was responsible for deforestation of large parts of Europe long before the industrial revolution. People turned to burning coal and lignite for lack of trees in the comparably sparsely populated countries of the 17/18th century. What exactly do you expect this around, with 8 times the size of population and much larger energy needs?

    1. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Who said anything about trees? Any type of green plant produces carbohydrates, including those which are easily grown in abundance on already depleted/unused land. Once we get the ability to use carbohydrates for energy, what makes you think we won't we able to produce them using bacteria in a bio-reactor? What makes you think we can't do this now?

    2. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by tp1024 · · Score: 1

      Trees are about as effective in doing photosynthesis as any other plant. You can't get more energy out of a system than you're putting into it. Any bells ringing?

    3. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by bertok · · Score: 5, Informative

      Trees are about as effective in doing photosynthesis as any other plant.

      That's not true, there's significant differences in efficiency between various species of plants. Most grasses for example are much more efficient than trees, which is why grassland can support huge herds of large animals, but a forest can't.

      See: Photosynthetic Efficiency, where it has a table of some typical efficiencies:

      Plants, typical : 0.1%
      Typical crop plants: 1-2%
      Sugarcane: 7-8% peak

      This is because more than one kind of photosynthesis has evolved, with somewhat different chemical processes. Look up C3 carbon fixation and C4 carbon fixation for the differences.

      There is a significant research effort going on looking into ways of taking the genes for the more efficient types of photosynthesis and merging that into less efficient plants. This could be used to make fruit trees grow much faster, or to create algae that can be used to produce alcohol or oil at efficiencies approaching those of solar electric power.

    4. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by MightyYar · · Score: 2

      While you have a good point, there are a few points to consider:
      - The wood was not being used efficiently. A startling amount of the energy in the wood was going up the stack.
      - The forests were not being managed in any real way. No replanting, clear cutting. Forestry in North America, for all its warts, is currently sustainable.
      - We aren't limited to wood from trees - switchgrass gives you a bunch of cellulose and grows much faster than a tree.
      - This discussion isn't about energy, but about raw materials.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    5. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by tp1024 · · Score: 2

      Strangely enough, people who aren't mixing up average and peak efficiencies get wildly different results.

    6. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by tp1024 · · Score: 2

      Erm, google: "medivial forest management" - you'll find out that sustainable forestry was invented in Europe and Japan independently (because it was unsustainable before). And both coincided with the introduction of coal as fuel. But don't worry, thanks to wood pellets being used as a replacement for heating oil, sustainability is just one of those quaint old concepts going the way of the wooly mammoth.

    7. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by Michael+Woodhams · · Score: 1

      The problem of replacing oil for transport is much smaller than the problem of replacing fossil fuels entirely. (Whether it is enough smaller remains to be seen.) Nobody is talking about relying on trees as fuel for power stations and steel refineries.

      (Also, I don't think they deforested Europe like this - trees for charcoal were (or certainly could be) managed sustainably - it is just that supply could not keep up with growing demand as steel production increased.)

      --
      Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
    8. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      Europe, not being under a uniform set of rules, has a mix of history when it comes to forest management. Some rulers saw their strategic importance and took steps to protect them, some were unable to, and others just went for the short-term. Japan had the good fortune(?) to have an emperor who claimed all forests to be exclusively his, thus preserving them. These are exceptions rather than the general rule - most cultures use their forests up entirely.

      But don't worry, thanks to wood pellets being used as a replacement for heating oil,

      So far, those are being made out of scrap (at least in North America). I certainly hope we will continue to manage our forests such that they remain more or less a constant resource.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    9. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by tp1024 · · Score: 1

      No such luck in rightpondia. People are using twigs and litter, growing fuel wood plantations (3-5 year growth period) and other things for wood pellets. They were mostly made from scrap a decade ago or so, but there wasn't enough of that to meet demand.

    10. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      Ah, that's too bad - you should never have given up Canada! :)

      In all seriousness, I suppose that wood plantations are better than clear cutting whatever forest you have left.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    11. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by tp1024 · · Score: 1

      Erm, wood plantations *are* clear cutting whatever forest you have and treating trees as something like grain or whatever. The "trees" (mostly poplar, but also birches, willows) don't grow for more than 5 years, they are harvested (clear cut) as soon as possible for their fuel value. There is not the least resemblence between those and what Europeans enthusiastically call forests (which themselves are often trees standing on rectangular grids, true forests are exceedingly rare e.g. less than 1% of all German "forests").

    12. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      Erm, wood plantations *are* clear cutting whatever forest you have and treating trees as something like grain or whatever.

      Right, but you aren't cutting down any new forest - presumably just using existing cleared land. It is sustainable so long as good farming practice is used and the land is not exhausted.

      true forests are exceedingly rare e.g. less than 1% of all German "forests").

      Yeah, I remember that from traveling through Germany. The "Black Forest" sure wasn't what it was when the Romans wrote about how it blocked out all light! :)

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    13. Re:Wood wasn't enough to fuel the Middle Ages by badkarmadayaccount · · Score: 1

      Not to mention multiple pigments for photosynthetic efficiency.

      --
      I know tobacco is bad for you, so I smoke weed with crack.
  7. The diffuse nature of the energy collected... by Scareduck · · Score: 1

    ... argues against it. This is why I am perpetually skeptical of all solar, wind, and tidal energy schemes: they inevitably and always elide crucial details about the economic availability of storage, or of the energy/dollar cost (the latter reflecting the former) of buildout, frequently demanding subsidy to bring them to parity with fossil fuel systems. Biofuels have even worse things to contend with, including biologic sequestration from competing species (expensive containment), and corresponding reduction in productivity that strains capable of living in open ponds.

    I have stopped reading his blog because it is too depressing, but Robert Rapier is a very good source for this kind of material, and a good counterweight to the all-too-rosy scenarios coming out of academia and elsewhere. While he does not agree with me on everything (he has been a proponent of solar where I think it makes no sense at all), his comments on biofuels come from an area of expertise and go a long way to skewer much of the unsubstantiated talk in this area.

    --

    Dog is my co-pilot.

    1. Re:The diffuse nature of the energy collected... by Belial6 · · Score: 0

      The problem with storage is that the "environmentalists" want the world to fix to a static state. Energy can very easily be stored by pumping water up hill. It doesn't even have to be drinkable water.

    2. Re:The diffuse nature of the energy collected... by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Your idea of "very easy" is hilariously misguided.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    3. Re:The diffuse nature of the energy collected... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Energy can very easily be stored by pumping water up hill. It doesn't even have to be drinkable water.

      Unfortunately pumping up water uphill is far from adequate and far from easy. To sum up, to store just one day of the US energy needs would require 388 reservoirs 250m high, that is higher than Hoover Dam, each with 600MW of production capacity, where the US currently only has 24.

      But it's not just pump hydro storage that falls short, all storage options are either hard or impossible.

  8. Ridiculous idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    1. I think there isn't enough biomass to meet our fuel needs, and couldn't ever be
    2. it will result in very large areas of the biosphere being destroyed to make way for plantations
    3. it will result in valuable agricultural land being turned over to fuel production rather than food production
    4. it will deplete the soils, deplete the fertilizer sources, and eventually lead us all to starvation

    Is this not obvious to everyone?!?

    1. Re:Ridiculous idea by Colourspace · · Score: 1

      Not obvious - just one scenario amongst many.

    2. Re:Ridiculous idea by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      1. There's enough biomass, but we'll have to have one hell of a population receed to make it work.
      2. Probably. Unless they go nuts about growing algae in the desert someplace. The energy costs will make this decentralised, of course. Economically, they won't have much choice.
      3. Or, we can get into hydroponic greenhouse gardening in a big way. It'd be the only viable way to farm unfarmable land.
      4. Most fertilizers today are made from petroleum. Without petroleum, no fertilizers, no massive production. See my Point 1.

      We having fun yet? On the upside, populations tend to fall in developed countries as the birthrate declines. There's not as much pressure to pump out a dozen kids when 11 of them will survive to adulthood. The downside to it is, it takes a lot of technology and energy to efficiently feed all those people.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
  9. Lack of Political Will by vaene · · Score: 1

    What's lacking, is not tech or economics. Alternatives such as Biobutanol can be used as a direct substitute for gasoline with minimal to no alteration on current vehicles, and they pack about 90% ~ 95% of the energy density as gasoline. If we took the $30-50billion we spend EVERY YEAR on subsidizing outlandishly profitable Oil companies like Exxon, and put even a fraction of that money towards developing Industrial scale economically viable biobutanol, biodiesel distilleries/refineries which could run off of agricultural waste, and other non food renewable resources. We could cut our fossil fuel use, cut pollution (biobutanol burns cleaner), and have a readily available bridge source of energy to power our transportation network until other, cleaner tech come on line. We can do this now, hell we could have done it a decade ago. But as long as politicians of both parties are bought off by the Energy Oligarchs, public funds will continue to subsidize fossil fuels instead of cheaper less destructive technologies.

    1. Re:Lack of Political Will by tp1024 · · Score: 2

      The USA is already burning a quarter of the world corn harvest for bioethanol and it doesn't make a dent in its energy budget. Even ignoring the amount of energy used in the process, it amounts to little more than 1% of the total energy use in the USA. Even if all the worlds grain harvest were to be turned into ethanol for the USA - starving the rest of the planet in the process, but we already see that the US couldn't care less about this detail - it would account for less than one third of the US energy consumption.

      Shut up you monster.

    2. Re:Lack of Political Will by BlueStrat · · Score: 1

      instead of cheaper less destructive technologies.

      If there were actually cheaper less destructive technologies, that would be a huge opportunity for profit, and somebody would be stepping up to cash in on the gravy train. The only way any of these alternatives are "cheaper" is in the sense that the government uses money taken from taxpayers to subsidize them. At some point, you run out of other people's money.

      The oil industry can do just fine without subsidies and I support taking them off the government teat. However, alternate energy sources require huge subsidies just to exist. They simply aren't mature enough yet because human knowledge and technology levels are not yet high enough. Replicators and transporters would be great too, but we haven't advanced that far there, either.

      Once the technology is mature enough that someone can make money from it, no government subsidies will be needed. Even Germany, which President Obama recently praised for "green" energy initiatives, has just implemented massive cuts to such government initiatives, as they've seen by the results that it's throwing money down a rathole at this point in time.

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    3. Re:Lack of Political Will by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I like how you conveniently stopped using numbers when you started talking about your proposal, as if you didn't have any. It's almost as if you've never done any research into the feasibility of your plan, or you did do research but were uncomfortable with how bleak everything you found was. I choose to believe the latter.

    4. Re:Lack of Political Will by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1

      Maybe the solution is to quit making bio fuel in probably the worst way possible. I love bio fuels but when algae base fuels don't qualify for any of the subsidies because they are made from the wrong plant (read this a while back in the local paper and can't find the full article but the U of MN page on the summit is still available) there is something wrong with how we are making them.

      --
      Time to offend someone
  10. Not at current energy consumption by fozzy1015 · · Score: 2

    A paper by a professor named Jeff Dukes back in 1997 calculated that in that year we burned 400 years worth of biomass using fossil fuels.

    http://plus.maths.org/content/burning-buried-sunshine

    The idea we can consume the same amount of energy by growing biomass is a pipe dream. Many of the processes that produce liquid fuels via biological processes end requiring more input energy that can be extracted, usually because water has to be removed from the final product which requires heat. That is why so many companies have been able to succeed building pilot projects but can never scale up to anything sustainable.

    1. Re:Not at current energy consumption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe modify gas tanks with two bladders one for petrol one for other, they each expand to fill the tank so little wasted space, and two delivery paths to the engine so no H2O contamination to the petrol. Yes it is extra cost and weight but would allow a much easier transition and eliminate the need for an expensive water free fuel.

    2. Re:Not at current energy consumption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That does not in any way address his point.
      The problem is that as the situation stands now, we do not seem to be able to harvest enough solar energy using biomass, regardless of delivery / consumption issues.
      Either we need another energy source that isn't solar (oil, biomass, solar cells, ...), or one that can capture a lot more of the sun's energy (some calculations seem to show that we do get enough in principle), or we need to somehow increase the effective collection area.
      This is an issue that can't be skipped by just having "gas tanks with two bladders".

    3. Re:Not at current energy consumption by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Your "400 years" number has already been debunked in this thread.

      The real number, in the US at least, is closer to 2 years per year. That's with something like cellulosic ethanol.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    4. Re:Not at current energy consumption by fozzy1015 · · Score: 1

      I don't see where it's refuted by the same qualitative source as a published scientific paper. And cellulosic ethanol? That's been attempted for over 100 years and nobody has been able to scale it up to get a positive energy return on it for the reason I mentioned. It simply takes too much energy to remove the water.

    5. Re:Not at current energy consumption by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't require a PhD, just an understanding of what the "400 year" figure is actually measuring:
      http://hardware.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=2682605&cid=39105933

      It simply takes too much energy to remove the water.

      Ethanol distillation has benefited greatly from basic improvements in process heat reclamation over the past 30 years, as well as the advent of practical molecular sieves.

  11. Biofuel is evil! (well not evil but unwise) by WhiteStarTech · · Score: 1

    Biofuel is made from whate4ver is cheapest, unfortunately waist material is not cheap, corn is. So what do we get, people in third world countries who can make more money by selling to oil companies (as they will invest in biofuel as the money is there)than at the local market.
    The result of this is starvation and an increase in food cost for those who can least afford it. I don’t like the reliance on oil but at this point it’s what we need to use while we work out the details of moving to another option.
    Make the change to other options but don’t do it at the expense of people, spend the time to do it properly and ban bio fule made in a way that it hurts others (The ban on ‘Blood dimonds’ springs to mind)

    1. Re:Biofuel is evil! (well not evil but unwise) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Good. world is way over populated and since people can't restrain themselves from breeding like rabbits something has to be done.

  12. Another couple of factors by presidenteloco · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Right now, I've read we're burning about 400 years worth of laid-down plant carbohydrate per year, in the form of fossil fuels.
    That's right. To obtain the equivalent amount of energy from non-fossil biofuels as we're currently getting from fossil fuels, we'd have to increase the amount of plant material being grown on Earth by a factor of 400 times current production, and use all of that for biofuels. (Assuming various conversion factors work out roughly equivalently for the two processes.)

    Second, people need food more than cars, and forests need trees (and the Earth ecosystem needs robust biodiversity as opposed to massive tracts of mono-culture biofuel tree-farms).

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
    1. Re:Another couple of factors by TheInternetGuy · · Score: 5, Informative

      Right now, I've read we're burning about 400 years worth of laid-down plant carbohydrate per year, in the form of fossil fuels. That's right. To obtain the equivalent amount of energy from non-fossil biofuels as we're currently getting from fossil fuels, we'd have to increase the amount of plant material being grown on Earth by a factor of 400 times

      No that is not what it means at all, in any way shape or form.
      What it means is that we are using fossil fuel at an rate of 400 times of which new fossil fuel is produced by natural processes. Only a small percentage of biomass will ever become trapped in the correct anaerobic environment and then fossilized over millions of years. So there is lots of biomass available for use as fuel.

      --
      If my comment didn't sound as good in your head as it did in mine, then I guess we all know who's to blame
    2. Re:Another couple of factors by compro01 · · Score: 3, Informative

      Your figure assumes that 100% of the plant matter per year is transformed into coal/oil/etc. This is not even close. Only about 0.0093% of the carbon in plant matter becomes fossil fuels. The remainder stays in the carbon cycle.

      That comes to 3.72% of annual plant matter generation to supply the same energy. Though probably at least double that to account for efficiency.

      Whether that amount is sustainable is left as an exercise for someone else.

      http://plus.maths.org/content/burning-buried-sunshine

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    3. Re:Another couple of factors by presidenteloco · · Score: 1

      Right you are. My bad.

      --

      Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
  13. Rayon isn't synthetic by Seraphim1982 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Out of all the examples you could pick you picked rayon? Rayon is produced using cellulose (wood), sodium hydroxide, carbon disulfide and sulfuric acid. It isn't a synthetic fiber, and there isn't any petroleum involved in the process. Rayon is just cellulose that has been dissolved and regenerated as a fiber.

    1. Re:Rayon isn't synthetic by __aamdvq1432 · · Score: 1

      "I can live without rayon (products manufactured from non-petroleum based bio-sources), but, dang, I'm gonna miss polyvinyl chloride (long-chain, synthetic polymer products that are tremendously more difficult and expensive to produce, when one has to start with relatively simple hydrocarbons derived from bio-sources instead of cracked and fractionated petroleum)!"

  14. Interesting, Rayon and PVC by Maintenance+Goof · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The OP said, "I can live without rayon, but, dang, I'm gonna miss polyvinyl chloride!" Rayon is made from wood. We make vinyl chloride from petrochemicals, but the original source was plant material and the majority of world production uses plant material. Acetate, is another one typically from plants. As is nitrocellulose. Casein, is a protein from milk. It is also the plastic that the buttons on your shirt are probably made of. So plastic without petroleum is not that hard to find.

  15. Time transfer is the problem by 0WaitState · · Score: 1

    Both fossil fuel and biofuel are essentially vehicles for transfering the sun's energy to a tangible, packageable format. Biofuels are great, and we should continue to develop them, and deploy where economically viable. But biofuels cannot solve the basic problem of what fossil fuels provide: in addition to being incredibly convenient (dense portable energy from a hole in the ground), fossil fuels provide stored sun energy from accumulated years past. Millions of years.

    Biofuel can deliver only one year's worth of sun energy per year, whereas mining fossil fuels gives you access to past millions of years' worth of sun energy. So yes, go for more biofuel, but don't expect biofuel to sustain energy consumption habits that depend on every year transfering a thousand past years' worth of ancient biofuel (oil/coal/NG) to this year.

    --

    Remain calm! All is well!
    1. Re:Time transfer is the problem by fadethepolice · · Score: 0

      The amount of energy stored in fossil fuels per year and the amount of energy that falls on the earth do not have a one to one ratio. We can currently provide all of our energy needs by harnessing the amount of solar energy that falls on a very small part of the planet. The problem is that it is too expensive. As time goes on there is a 100 percent chance that renewable energy becomes less expensive than fossil fuels. http://www.solarfeeds.com/surface-area-required-to-power-the-world-with-solar/

  16. Ridiculous misunderstanding of scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    "but from a sustainable and renewable resource"

    Whale oil was also sustainable and renewable, but not at the rates of consumption that existed in the 19th century. They ran out of whales. Likewise if you tried to replace the quantity of oil used world-wide today with biofuels, you'd either have to starve the world of food or strip-mine the forests, or both. Yes, it's all renewable, but not in the quantities that you would need. You can't grow trees fast enough to replace them at those rates. We would consume them at a net loss, and eventually be stuck in a "biofuel crisis" in the same way that whale oil ran out in the 1800s. Something more fundamental has to change in order for biofuels to ever be anything more than a small fraction of energy supply.

    I'm not saying biofuels are worthless, but this is kind of like saying that because you can grow a tomato patch in your back yard you can become entirely self-sufficient in food. It's irrational to think of it as a complete replacement. I suppose he does acknowledge this with the statement that we will become "less dependent on fossil fuels", implying that we are still dependent on them to an extent. But most people have a poor idea of what it will actually take for a significant replacement. Knocking a few percent off the problem of dwindling fossil fuel supply isn't going to solve it.

    1. Re:Ridiculous misunderstanding of scale by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      Whale oil was also sustainable and renewable, but not at the rates of consumption that existed in the 19th century. They ran out of whales.

      This is an important point. Without sane government structures in place (such as protection of property rights and regulation of negative externalities) every renewable energy source will eventually suffer the exact same fate, as populations keep increasing and governments re-distribute wealth in order to support them.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
  17. I am not an environmentalist by presidenteloco · · Score: 2

    Because that term is far too anthropocentric (it's all about me me me and MY environment, which surrounds and exists for me me me.)

    But my sense of ethics (and my theory of wise action) does extend to eco-systems, and runs along the lines of:
    It is almost certainly wise, and probably ethically sound and morally advanced, to allow a good number of the complex eco-systems on Earth of all scales to evolve in a context which is not dominated by human intervention.

    And no, that view cannot be equated to the world being in a static state. It should however be in a complex nested homeostatic state, one which reaches many sustainable equilibria at many levels, due to the action of complex eco-systems.

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
  18. What I'd like to see by NotSoHeavyD3 · · Score: 1

    Is someone invent a process to convert air, water and sunlight into light sweet crude with decent efficiency.(Man, that'd be a game changer.)

    --
    Did you know 80 to 90% of the moderators on slashdot wouldn't recognize a troll even if one dragged them under a bridge.
    1. Re:What I'd like to see by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How long should this process take? I can think of a few ways right now...

    2. Re:What I'd like to see by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No problem! Got 3 million years to wait?

  19. Re:Eventually, but probably not too soon by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 2

    Oil production peaked in 2004 if I'm reading wikipedia correctly. Oil production per capita peaked in 1979. Peak Oil is a mathematical certainty if there are not an infinite amount of hydrocarbons on Earth. We can easily talk about Peak Oil in the past tense if we focus on the major oilfields; we've pretty much used up all of the oil that's easy to get to. Hubbert actually predicted the timing of the US's peak oil production pretty accurately. Additionally, demand for oil is far outpacing production; there's a lot of people on this planet. Thus, even if production continues apace, oil will continue to become more expensive.

    But go ahead and keep thinking you're smarter than everyone else. Clearly all future predictions are worthless.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  20. Jack Saddler, UBC Faculty of Forestry by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isn't a forestry guy slightly out of his elements musing about organic synthesis?

    1. Re:Jack Saddler, UBC Faculty of Forestry by Rostin · · Score: 2

      Take a look at his research interests and recent publications. It appears he might know a thing or two about it.

      These days, the traditional role played by a discipline (more accurately, the role that people who probably have no actual knowledge of a discipline assume that it has played) means very little. I don't know anything about Forestry, but I know enough about academia to say that if people or departments think they can carve out a new niche for themselves even in a seemingly unrelated area of research, they will. It means more money and even the survival of the discipline as a whole.

      In my own area (chemical engineering), bio this and that has been hot for years. Now we're all going crazy for energy applications like fuel cells, solar cells, and photocatalysis. Only 10% or so of the faculty members in my department work on "traditional" chemical engineering topics.

  21. Where do we get fertilizers? by legont · · Score: 2
    To make any significant amount of bio*, we need fertilizers in general and nitro in particular, which is produced directly from natural gas. Yes, we could use electrolysis, but it'd take much more energy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process

    BTW, we are, in a sense, made from gas. The process eventually generates half of our protein and feeds at least 1/3 of humanity. But without it there probably would be no WWI, Revolution, WWII... It was developed by the same guy who created Cyclon-B. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclon_B

    1. Re:Where do we get fertilizers? by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      You can get fertilizer through aquaponics.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
  22. why not make oil instead? by Karmashock · · Score: 1

    I don't get why they keep fermenting it into alcohol when there exists many species that produce lots of oil and there are micros that will turn cellulose into oil. I don't get it.

    Here's a wild and possibly half baked idea... I warned you... do we know of any insects that will eat just about anything and produce an oil? I don't know if that's a commercially viable process but if you gave big colonies of insects all our agro waste... maybe they could turn it into a fuel source?

    I'm thinking something like termites or ants. Something that will gobble up any garbage we give them and output something useful. The chemical factories inside a colony are pretty impressive. I don't know how efficient the process is but you could use really low quality fuel to sustain it so it might not matter.

    Possibly down the road with some genetic engineering.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    1. Re:why not make oil instead? by rhsanborn · · Score: 1

      They're trying exactly this with species of algae. Unfortunately, they have problem with scale, and with separation, if I remember correctly. But it's a problem that's being actively worked on.

    2. Re:why not make oil instead? by Whuffo · · Score: 1

      It's because alcohol is an almost perfect replacement for gasoline and can be used to extend the current supply or replace it if needed.

      Replacement fuels are only useful if they actually, you know, replace what we're already using. Or would you have the biofuel companies give everyone a free car that use their special fuel?

    3. Re:why not make oil instead? by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure if we're having the same question.

      I asked why the biofuel isn't an oil rather then a fermented sugar? Because they can obviously make oils from plants... and if we could get an oil based fuel from them it would fit into our existing industrial paradigm better.

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    4. Re:why not make oil instead? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Butanol is an almost perfect substitute. Currently, alcohol fuel for passenger vehicles is ethanol, which poses problems for existing gasoline engines and fuel systems.

      - T

  23. Re:FROOOOOOSSSSSTTTTT by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    not even fucking close.

  24. Re:Eventually, but probably not too soon by jmorris42 · · Score: 0

    Not saying the idea of 'peak oil' is totally bogus, only that every attempt to predict it has proven wrong. Since the first prediction the peak has been pushed back again and again by offshore drilling, discovering whole new oil fields, the discovery of shale oil, tar sands, fracking and probably a few more before we hit the real peak oil. If I had to make a prediction, admitting mine will probably be as wrong as everyone else's, I'd say we will only identify 'peak oil' in retrospect and not in a forward prediction. We keep doming up with ever more clever ways of getting at the stuff, especially as the price keeps going up. Extraction methods that would have been madness at $5/barrel are very profitable at $100/barrel. At $150 what new tricks will suddenly be commonplace?

    I only wish we would get serious while there is plenty of dead dino for plastics and other uses and go all in on moving as much as possible to other things. CNG is something we have out the wazoo here in the US and we don't depend on insane tyrants for any of it. Nuke plants should be a no brainer but the mindless greens hate it and apparently have a veto on our survival.

    --
    Democrat delenda est
  25. Chlorine sequestration by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Polyvinyl chloride actually has a useful role in the after-peak-oil world. It is a good way of sequestering chlorine.

    Why is that useful? Well, many of the approaches for scrubbing carbon out of the atmosphere rely on reacting it with a hydroxide. Hydroxides are produced by electrolysis of a saline solution, and this leaves you with a lot of leftover chlorine.

  26. Wait, this is new? by Daetrin · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's called thermal depolymerization and you can do it to just about anything organic. So unlike what some other posters are saying, you don't have to devote huge agricultural areas to producing stock just for this process, you can use preexisting waste for the job. There was a company running prototype plant in Carthage, Missouri. They situated themselves right next to a turkey processing plant with the hope they could "process about 200 tons of turkey waste into 500 barrels (79 m3) of oil per day". The plant ran for a number of years, and was supposedly able to produce oil for about 10% less than the price of crude ("supposedly" as in the oil was definitely produced, the question was exactly how much it cost them and how much of a profit they were making.) However they suffered from a number of lawsuits and eventually had to declare bankruptcy.

    It seems like they jumped into the game a little too early, or just weren't able to find enough venture capital to perfect the system. Certainly as the price of oil continues to rise and the technology improves this is a process that could certainly be brought back. And note that since they're using organic waste the process is carbon neutral.

    --
    This Space Intentionally Left Blank
    1. Re:Wait, this is new? by swb · · Score: 1

      I remember that site.

      IIRC, they had problems with emission odor complaints which also caused some shutdowns.

      I also seem to remember that they had some problems with the turkey processor either raising the price of turkey guts to the point that the plant wasn't economical or they had another buyer and thus cut the supply.

      Wasn't the plant net energy positive, too? Although that would be just the process and its hard to know if the larger system (involving delivery) was net energy positive or if it only really works to have a continuous source of close raw materials.

  27. nutrient cycling by proclomeesius · · Score: 5, Interesting

    As an agricultural scientist, I always feel slightly uncomfortable when biofuel producers start talking about using 'agricultural waste'. Increasingly, this 'waste' is now used by farmers as an integral part in boosting soil carbon and increasing biological activity as it breaks down, improving soils and improving subsequent crop yields.

    The value of this, though often difficult to measure is significant and very real. But I worry shortsighted farmers looking for a quick buck may lose these less tangible benefits, leading to further soil degradation and lower yields in the future.

    1. Re:nutrient cycling by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      In an ideal world, some mechanism (carbon taxes perhaps) would redirect clean, high-carbon sources for use as soil amendments, while allowing hydrogen-rich wastes to be removed to produce biofuels.

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    2. Re:nutrient cycling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In addition, "agricultural waste" also recycles a number of bio-available trace minerals as well as nitrogen and potash. Stripping 'agricultural waste" from the ground will create a new series of problems.

    3. Re:nutrient cycling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Im sure farmers are aware of the need to replenish the soil and would be able to factor that need into their calculations for their waste recycling usage.

    4. Re:nutrient cycling by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But I worry shortsighted farmers looking for a quick buck may lose these less tangible benefits, leading to further soil degradation and lower yields in the future.

      You shouldn't worry about about it, this is as certain as death and taxes...

  28. too valuable to burn by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Petroleum is much too valuable as a feedstock to burn as a fuel.

  29. an older option by slashmydots · · Score: 0

    I saw a special on Discovery of 20/20 or 60 minutes or something several years ago (like 4+) that said if all the left over parts like feathers, skin, and organs from just chicken processing plants in just the US adopted a new hydrocarbon processing system they invented to turn it into biofuel, it would power all the cars in the entire US. It was a simplistic process but the end result was very similar to crude oil so it'd have to go to a refinery but it's not like we don't have giant gasoline refineries right now. I'd prefer this option to destroying trees. Plus, right now I believe the leftovers are either processed into animal food, burned, or eventually decompose which releases the mega-greenhouse gas, methane. So yeah, I'd drive a chicken-gas car. The question is, why did this technology apparently go nowhere?

  30. apply your gut check numbers to fresh water by way2trivial · · Score: 1

    it's scarier

    http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3209.aspx

    "It is estimated that two out of every three people will live in water-stressed areas by the year 2025. In Africa alone, it is estimated that 25 countries will be experiencing water stress (below 1,700 m3 per capita per year) by 2025. Today, 450 million people in 29 countries suffer from water shortages."

    that's in 13 years... not 70... and it's freaking WATER! (pop quiz, what do you require, oil or water to live?)

    --
    every day http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random
    1. Re:apply your gut check numbers to fresh water by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      lets see 1700m3/person/year => 4.65 m3/day/person => 4650 liters/day for ONE person, easy stop wasting water, you need only 5 liters of water for coking and drinking and are using thousand times more, if you want to bathe or use it for garden use (filtered) sea water instead we have plenty of that, you don't need to use drinking quality water for that

    2. Re:apply your gut check numbers to fresh water by rocker_wannabe · · Score: 1

      There is plenty of water, just not a lot of fresh water. If you have energy you can turn salt water into fresh water. It just means that water is going to be very expensive and so food will have to be grown using less water. There are hydroponic and aquaponic systems already that use as little as 10% of what is used for dirt farming.

      The real issue is still energy.

      --
      "Meaningless!, Meaningless!" says the Teacher. "Utterly meaningless!"
  31. Mmmmm.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Betcha there'll be some really wierd plants growing around that biorefinery.

  32. Bad idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All of those carbohydrates will go straight to the electrical grid's thighs.

  33. Fuck all this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Solar Panel to Hydrogen Generator to pressurised storage to car.

    No oil companies, No Nukes, No Smart Grid, No Carbon Tax, No UN, No Global Warming, No Agenda 21, No Global Bank, No Global Army, No Police State.

    Making it depend on growing shit when motherfuckers are fucking with the weather is as retarded as staying with the current bullshit, possibly worse!

  34. Are you selling something? by tepples · · Score: 1

    people who aren't mixing up average and peak efficiencies get wildly different results.

    From the linked page: "Purchase this article from the publisher for $14.00 USD"

  35. Re:Eventually, but probably not too soon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You think that's bad? The global discovery rate peaked in the 1960s. Most of the supply comes from supergiant fields found many decades ago. We may not have reached peak production yet, but it's an undisputed fact that we're using oil faster than we are finding new deposits. That will mean oil supply will peak. Predicting when it will peak is difficult because it is controlled by both supply *and* demand, but reaching a peak and then a supply decline is inevitable. Any prediction I've ever seen places the peak in this century, usually the first half of this century.

    As for biofuels, anyone who does the math will realize they can't even come close to replacing the amount of petroleum we currently consume. Biofuels might make a token dent in the consumption.

    Straight line projections in the future, eh? Highly respected experts said in the 1960s and 1970s that the exponential increase in consumption would continue, and exceed supply pretty quickly. It hasn't done that because the price rose dramatically in the 1970s. That's stifled the growth in demand and stretched out the supply. If you collapse the global economy it does a *great* job of prolonging the supply. The supply could probably be prolonged for a century or two if we adopted, say, Cuba or North Korea's economic strategy. It's not exactly a desirable option, however. So, keep making fun of the projections, but if the only hope for prolonging the inevitable peak is economic recession, that's not much cause for optimism. Also, financial incentives can't defy the basic physics of pumping fluid out of a rock sponge: that what you pump out will rise for a while, peak, and then decline.

  36. Joule Biotechnology by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    This is the company to watch. They are using cyanobacteria and spitting out ethanol and diesel fuel directly. i.e. no processing other than removing water (and diesel floats on water). What does it use for feed? Waste. Sewage. They built a small 100 acre system in Texas on less than 30 million. They just got 70 million and are building a 1000 acre system in hobbs NM. Once they have the scaling in place, they are going to erect these outside of cities all over. According to their numbers, they will have less than $30/bl equivelence as they scale up.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:Joule Biotechnology by russotto · · Score: 1

      According to their numbers, they will have less than $30/bl equivelence as they scale up.

      Everyone claims, nobody delivers. File it with fusion, practical photoelectric (yeah, yeah, I know, just around the corner), and flying cars. Joule has been making claims since 2009. Remember Changing World Technologies and their oil-from-anything claims? Lots of hype, ending in bankruptcy.

    2. Re:Joule Biotechnology by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      And yet, they just got 70 million investment and have other investors begging to go with them.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    3. Re:Joule Biotechnology by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People invested into Greece as well, doesn't mean its a good idea ...

    4. Re:Joule Biotechnology by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Thats true. But do you have any proof that it is a bad idea or that the investors into Joule are idiots?

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  37. This is ridiculous by evilviper · · Score: 1

    It's absolutely ridiculous that this question is still being debated. It was clear way back during the OPEC oil embargo, where the future was... Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the roof of the White House to make a point.

    There is absolutely, positively NO QUESTION that the future of passenger cars is direct storage of electricity, very likely in plain old rechargeable batteries. Electricity which was mostly supplied by solar power. The math worked decades ago, and it works now. It's insane that, now that we're getting further along, with multiple fully electric cars on the market, and solar power installations going in all across California, that people are STILL trying to pretend the future might be anywhere else.

    Hydrogen and ethanol were always just ploys by the oil and car companies to delay change, convince people that maybe we had a different path forward, and so laying off of increasing fuel efficiency standards. The math never worked... it was all politics.

    Now, the future of cargo transport is still up in the air, but that seems fairly obvious, too. Natural gas is cheaper than oil, very widely available, and much cleaner. Traditional engines can be converted to burn natural gas without drastic changes. In the medium-term, higher-efficiency engines will probably replace conventional engines, burning less natural gas for the same power... This seems likely to be fuel cells (double the efficiency), but turbines and even high compression conventional engines still have a shot at this point. That's pretty obviously the future of trucks. Trains will likely just change to eliminating combustion, and using power lines strung over tracks in most of the country, perhaps with conventional fuel for the most remote areas.

    --
    Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
  38. Very right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not a really new matter as the text says. Just a pointer here: One of the hot topics that surfaces every now and then is the use of Furfural or similar derived compound as basis for the industry. But the chemistry for that is not yet developed/competitive. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furfural

    So everybody: Tell your kids to major in science ;) We need help.

  39. Re:Eventually, but probably not too soon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    But rising prices shifting causing increases in efficient use as well as switches to alternatives is a core part of the whole economic system, which is why the original predictions were, and will remain, wrong (see Julian Simon's writings):
    http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/

  40. Fuel from poop? by dtougas · · Score: 1

    With all of these people on the planet consuming lots of plant matter, couldn't we put all of that human waste to better use by turning it into biogas? It surely wouldn't meet all of our needs, but perhaps it could significantly reduce the burden on our increasingly rare energy staples.

    This has a few benefits: We could use the available farm land to feed people. The more people there are the more fuel we get. This energy source is local to every country in the world, in fact, each household could potentially have their own digester.

    I haven't studied this much, but I have always been intrigued by the idea.

  41. Seriously.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The only thing dumber than taking a resource from the Earth that takes thousands of years to replenish is taking the resource from the soil that sustains all life on Earth.

    If we found some incredible new way to get great fuel from plants - how do you fill 90 million barrels a DAY (Note, that's oil barrels - that's not gallons of gas. In gallons of gas that would be nearly 2 trillion gallons a day.

    Let's say you COULD grow plants fast enough to replenish that. How long until the soil can't sustain life at all?

    Probably not that long.

  42. When you can produce 160 exajoules a year... by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 1

    which is about what oil contributes energetically, each year, to the world's economy, and NOT create an ecological catastrophe or starve everyone in the 3rd world, please do get back to me on that. In the meantime, I suggest you review a summary of the numbers regarding the energy situation here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil.

    --
    Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
  43. Re:Eventually, but probably not too soon by jbengt · · Score: 1

    First, to clarify, peak oil is not when oil production peaks, it is when production outpaces the discovery of new reserves. There is reasonable evidence that this has already occurred, though we probably won't be able to tell for sure until well after the peak.
    Increased prices have indeed increased the proven reserves by making it economical to spend lots of money developing hard-to-get pockets of oil. This can't really reduce oil prices, though, since the high prices are required to make that production feasible
    Frakking is not really one of the things that will bring more oil, it is mainly for extraction of natural gas.
    However, peak oil is one thing, but natural gas and coal are far from being used up. If oil prices rise enough, we will be able to use natural gas and coal as feedstocks instead.

  44. Rayon? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isn't rayon cellulose-based?

  45. Re:Storage is hard by presidenteloco · · Score: 1

    Optimistic much?...

    How hard is storage compared to how hard building the current grid was? 100s of times harder? I think not.

    Secondly, efficient long-distance transmission (HVDC? Super-conducting?) and smart switching can be combined with storage to provide a comprehensive solution to intermittent power leveling. Intermittent sources and demand response negawatts can become a large part of the "new base load". We have computers and digital communications network nowadays. May as well use them.

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?