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Large Solar Flare To Glance Off Earth

JoeRobe writes "According to spaceweather.com, a major X5 solar flare is on its way to deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field. This is the second x-class flare to be released by the same sunspot in the past few days, the first being an X1. In both cases, the sunspot (spot 1429) was not directly facing Earth, but it is still active, and poses a threat for a large, Earth-directed flare in the next few days."

154 comments

  1. Destiny by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All our technologies are in the hand of a solar flare!!

    1. Re:Destiny by nomorecwrd · · Score: 1

      We are having more flares than a Star Trek movie!!!

  2. Re:It's??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "It's" == "it is" or "it has". No exceptions.
    The possessive form of "it" is "its".
    Maybe it's because English is my 3rd language but this is one of my pet peeves.

    Yeah?
    Well you just used "==" the wrong way.

  3. X-Class you say? by masteva · · Score: 4, Funny

    So we may finally get some actual X-Men out of this???

    --
    Practice Static Safety - Hack Naked
    1. Re:X-Class you say? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Nope, just the Fantastic Four. :-\

    2. Re:X-Class you say? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      I've met a few ex-men, I prefer actual women.

    3. Re:X-Class you say? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nope chuck testa

  4. Re:It's??? by plover · · Score: 5, Funny

    Is that as in "Holy Shit, that solar flare, it's headed right for us!" Because if I'm gonna fry, I don't think I want to spend my last few minutes on Earth surrounded by grammar Nazis.

    --
    John
  5. Ligns up with iPad3 Launch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Obviously this is Samsung's initial attempt to destroy the iPad3

  6. Re:It's??? by marcle · · Score: 2, Informative

    Obligatory angry flower: http://www.angryflower.com/bobsqu.gif

  7. it's official by hguorbray · · Score: 3, Funny

    someone on the sun is shooting at us!

    -I'm just sayin'

    1. Re:it's official by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Time to dedicate $1T of borrowed money to block the sun!

    2. Re:it's official by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      That's no sun... oh wait never mind.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    3. Re:it's official by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Time to dedicate $1T of borrowed money to block the sun!

      In the local shop I get sun blockers for much less.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    4. Re:it's official by Cryogenic+Specter · · Score: 1

      Probably terrorists. We should pass some laws to arrest them without evidence or even a trial.

    5. Re:it's official by formfeed · · Score: 1

      Probably terrorists. We should pass some laws to arrest them without evidence or even a trial.

      Probably just anonymous using the sun to take down the satellite network.

    6. Re:it's official by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      someone on the sun is shooting at us!

      -I'm just sayin'

      How soon until US is at war with the sun?

    7. Re:it's official by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 2

      I doubt we'd go to war with the sun. We'd probably just send in some Navy SEALs at night...

    8. Re:it's official by mjwx · · Score: 1

      someone on the sun is shooting at us!

      -I'm just sayin'

      All yours buddy,

      I'm too busy dealing with the guy with a hand cannon on the dell.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    9. Re:it's official by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 1

      Shoot the TSA into it. Tell them they get to frisk the sun.

      --
      -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
    10. Re:it's official by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This shit is getting old. US is evil, aliens built the pyramids, I'm Elvis's love child, blah blah blah.
      Go live in Saudi or Iran and babble like that. You'll get a trial, but it comes with an execution.

  8. Good news by symes · · Score: 3, Interesting

    All the cost and possible misery to one side, a big cosmic event like this could do a lot of good. It might just reinvigorate general public's interest in the cosmos. Just seems a bit too quiet these days.

    1. Re:Good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      a big cosmic event like this could do a lot of good. It might just reinvigorate general public's interest in the cosmos.

      Hahaha, that's funny. This wouldn't get nearly as much media coverage as American Idol, and even that is being drowned out by the elections.

    2. Re:Good news by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

      All the cost and possible misery to one side,

      of the freakin planet.

      I finished that for you.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    3. Re:Good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Hahaha, that's funny. This wouldn't get nearly as much media coverage as American Idol, and even that is being drowned out by the elections.

      I read that as "... is being drowned out by the electrons."

    4. Re:Good news by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Maybe if it just took out satellites carrying television signals?
      THAT would wake people up.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    5. Re:Good news by EdIII · · Score: 1

      If it's the side of the planet hosting the brain-drain apps and content like Facebook and much of reality teevee, people will be more concerned about that then a nuclear armed Iran.

      People don't care about higher level problems like asteroids or the environment. Take away the bread and circuses.....

    6. Re:Good news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hate to be the one to break it to you, but "a nuclear armed Iran" is bread and circuses.

  9. Re:It's??? by SJHillman · · Score: 5, Funny

    Grammar Nazis tend to be thin-skinned, so you'll live long enough to see them fry first. Happy thoughts!

  10. Just a flesh wound, for now. by na1led · · Score: 0

    So it's like getting grazed by 12 Guage Buck Shot

    --
    -- By all means let's be open-minded, but not so open-minded that our brains drop out.
  11. Will it make my 28k Dialup connection run slower? by cpu6502 · · Score: 3, Funny

    (concerned)

    ;-)

    --
    My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
  12. Re:it's its by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 2

    It's on its way.

    --
    Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
  13. Scenario by echogen · · Score: 5, Funny

    possible scenario:
    1- Apple applies for a patent regarding magnetic interference.
    2- USPTO grants patent to apple
    3- Solar flare
    4- Apple suing the sun in Germany!
    5- Court prohibits the sun from sending magnetic flares to Germany

    --
    mmmmm.....
    1. Re:Scenario by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      6- After next solar flare, Germany undertakes sending cease-and-decist orders to the sun
      7- German space agency surpasses all competition in the current 'space funrun' (it really isn't much of a race)
      8- Das Über-Boote!

      (9- endless jokes about uber-booty)

    2. Re:Scenario by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      6- Profit!

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
  14. Re:It's??? by sjames · · Score: 1

    What if my pet peeve is prescriptive grammarians?

  15. Poses a Threat? by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 4, Funny

    Is it paranoid to think that these first two might be a couple of ranging shots?

    --
    Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
    1. Re:Poses a Threat? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      Is it paranoid to think that these first two might be a couple of ranging shots?

      Yes, yes it is paranoid to think that.

    2. Re:Poses a Threat? by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 1

      Right. The sun isn't that sloppy. If it was concerned enough about the midges on dirtspeck 3, we'd have been melted with loving concern long ago.

      And how do you *know* the sun isn't sentient? Just askin'

      --
      Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
    3. Re:Poses a Threat? by geekoid · · Score: 0

      the same way I know a rock isn't sentient. It exhibits no evidence of sentience.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    4. Re:Poses a Threat? by geekoid · · Score: 1, Informative

      The Mayans are still around, dumb ass.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    5. Re:Poses a Threat? by X0563511 · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure we would have noticed such an event in the sedimentary rock.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    6. Re:Poses a Threat? by gestalt_n_pepper · · Score: 4, Funny

      Really? If it's communications are conducted in almost unrecognizable languages, and it's conversations mainly esoterica beyond human concerns, and those discussions happened only over very long periods, they might not only be sentient, but also tenured.

      --
      Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
    7. Re:Poses a Threat? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      In one of the short stories in Niven's "Draco Tavern", most stars are populated by plasma beings that learn over time how to manage the "weather" in their home. In this story, a single survivor of a magnetic "plague" is being held in quarantine before immigrating to our star. The concern is that the refugee might give the plague to the denizens of our own star- When this happened to the immigrant's home, their infrastructure deteriorated to the point where they couldn't manage the weather anymore and their sun went nova. I always wished he had taken that short story and run with it for awhile.

    8. Re:Poses a Threat? by yurtinus · · Score: 1

      I asked it. It told me it wasn't. I don't see any reason not to believe it.

      --
      +1 Disagree
    9. Re:Poses a Threat? by Lashat · · Score: 1

      Thanks for the personal attack, but I was referring to the centralized Mayan civilization. NOT, Mayan *individual* people.

      Educate yourself before you blindly attack. What would your children say?

      --
      For every benefit you receive a tax is levied. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
  16. Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Could a solar flare affect an asteroid's orbit, like 2012 da14 which they swear will miss us.

    1. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Could a flashlight affect a cannonballs trajectory?

      Short answer which is accurate enough in this physical reality: "No".

    2. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      because light can't make anything move at all...

      radiometers and solar sails are just figments of our imaginations...

      maybe i am just being pedantic...but for the gp yes...the solar flare could affect the asteroid's orbit...however it will probably only be on the order of millimeters over the next thousand years.

      as well as the flashlight would affect the cannonballs trajectory...however likely not enough to be measurable before it hit something.

    3. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by ZeroSumHappiness · · Score: 2

      But of course the long answer is "Yes, but not enough to matter."

    4. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I guess those solar sails don't work then.

    5. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by g0bshiTe · · Score: 2

      Apparently light can move matter. http://www.physorg.com/news152456596.html

      Granted I doubt a solar flare would affect an asteroid, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

      --
      I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
    6. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by John+Hasler · · Score: 2

      Yes, very, very slightly, as could any of the numerous flares and other changes in solar emissions that will occur between now and 2040. That is one of the reasons why the asteroid's future path is uncertain.

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
    7. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Could a flashlight affect a cannonballs trajectory?

      Of course. You just have to apply it before the cannon is fired, to give directions via Morse code on where to aim the cannon.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    8. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Yes..but not much. More important is the debris that gets spewed out with a solar flare.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    9. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by butalearner · · Score: 1

      Note that it's not just more light that will hit the asteroid, but also a sparse cloud of ions with measurable mass. But still, the effect will not be sustained enough to cause a major disturbance, or even be distinguishable from measurement noise.

    10. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "as well as the flashlight would affect the cannonballs trajectory...however likely not enough to be measurable before it hit something."

      GP did say "accurate enough", you dumb kraut.

    11. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      maybe i am just being pedantic...

      No, you (and every other reply that took the GP to mean 'light cannot move things at all whatsoever') are being dumb. Because "short answer accurate enough for this reality" implies that there is a longer answer with greater accuracy (or if talking about the degree of effect, precision), but which is not materially significant to the matter at hand.

      At least one person was able to bring up that more precise answer without also misunderstanding the original post. Good for them.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    12. Re:Flare vs Asteroid by Thiarna · · Score: 1

      A solar flare is physical matter, not light, or else how would we see it coming?

      A better analogy would be the wind affecting a cannonballs trajectory.

  17. Fantastic Four... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I wonder if there are any astronauts in the ISS... to be irradiated by cosmic radiation.

  18. where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by nani+popoki · · Score: 5, Informative

    1. Don't be too concerned. This is more an issue for astronauts (minor inconvenience) and satellites (possible software outages), unless you live at high latitudes, in which case auroras are cool!

    2. X5 is strong but not catastrophic -- this might affect shortwave reception but it's not going to take down the power grid.

    1. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by tlhIngan · · Score: 2

      X5 is strong but not catastrophic -- this might affect shortwave reception but it's not going to take down the power grid.

      Actually, you're right AND wrong.

      On the X scale, X1 is least and X5 is worst. However, an X5 corresponds to something like a 30mT change in 3 hours of Earth's magnetic field.

      The problem is, X5 is where it stops. Storms of intensity of 300mT/sec have been recorded, and they too would be marked as an X5 (I believe that was the 187x "big one"). The Quebec one was of lower magnitude, but still X5.

      That's been the problem with the scale - it's like measuring hurricanes with a scale that would stop at F2. It doesn't really tell you a whole lot since it can encompass "little damage" to "major flooding, destruction and deaths".

      Or like the bars on a cellphone where it stays at 5 bars until you're at the edge, and then drops to 0 bars over the course of a few feet. Like say, the iPhone 4.

    2. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by ShadowBlasko · · Score: 3, Informative

      Not even close my friend. We had an X28 about 7 year ago...

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order- Ed Howdershelt Via Tass
    3. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The G, S, and R scales, for geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts, respectively, work like that, where it maxes out at 5. The X scale on the other hand is linear in terms of X-ray flux. The scale keeps going, such as an X15 and X20 that contributed to the 1989 blackout, or one in 2003 estimated to be X28 to X45 (the former from a maxed out a sensor, the latter tries to correct for that). The scale also goes downward, in a partial logarithmic way, where a M1 is one tenth of an X1, a C1 is one tenth of a M1, while the numbers after the letter are still linear.

    4. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by voidphoenix · · Score: 2

      Actually, no, it isn't like hurricane or tornado scales. There are 5 letters that indicate the order of magnitude of the flare's x-ray (100-800 pm) flux (in W/m^2): A (<10^-7), B (10^-7 to 10^-6), C (10^-6 to 10^-5), M (10^-5 to 10^-4) and X (>10^-4). The number after the letter is a multiplier, so an M6 has an x-ray flux of 6x10^-5 W/m^2.

      The scale is open ended, with the largest measured flare (2003-11-04) estimated at X45 (4.5x10^-3 W/m^2). We only have an estimate because the flare saturated the GOES detectors.

      The Carrington Event is generally regarded as the largest flare in recorded history. It caused telegraph systems to catch fire and visible aurorae at least as far south as the Caribbean

    5. Re:where'd I put my tinfoil hat? by voidphoenix · · Score: 1

      Ugh, link got eaten. Carrington Event.

  19. No blogspam? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    A scientific story with no editorializing in TFS and links to the source so I don't have to click through blogspam?

    What site am I on?

    1. Re:No blogspam? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Slashdot.org bro.

      Heh, you must be new here.

  20. Re:It's??? by DeathFromSomewhere · · Score: 0

    My pet peeve is when people confuse equality and equivalence.

    --
    -1 overrated isn't the same thing as "I disagree".
  21. Re:It's??? by cpu6502 · · Score: 0

    Not according to Chaucer.
    He tells me the correct word is "hit" which he uses throughout his works, and I'm not about to question the word of Chaucer (one of the greatest english writers of all time).

    --
    My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
  22. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    Really? Please ban that IP. I don't put up with that garbage on XBL and surely won't here.

  23. Pretty lights? by MSesow · · Score: 2

    All I ever really want to know when I see something like this is, "Will there be some Auroras where I am?"

    1. Re:Pretty lights? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      In the basement? I sure hope not.

    2. Re:Pretty lights? by JoeRobe · · Score: 2

      At the lower left of the spaceweather.com site, there's a little chart that tells you the chances of high-latitude and mid-latitude geomagnetic storms over the next 1 and 2 days.

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    3. Re:Pretty lights? by X0563511 · · Score: 1

      Note the "High" and "Mid" qualifiers on latitude. Aurora is simply not something you see in the equatorial/tropical region.

      So, if that's where MSesow happens to live, then he's shit out of luck.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    4. Re:Pretty lights? by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

      That's true, which is why I said "mid-latitude and high-latitude" in my original post. I'm aware of the possibility that MSesow lives in an equatorial region, but in case he/she lives in a mid- or high-latitude region, these charts may be useful.

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    5. Re:Pretty lights? by X0563511 · · Score: 1

      Wasn't directed at you. Was more for MSesow and for anyone else who came along, but it made sense to position it as a reply (to me at least). You know, a "note" like a footnote :P

      I know you knew what you were talking about.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    6. Re:Pretty lights? by FairAndHateful · · Score: 1

      Basement? Weird! In my house it's always localized entirely in the kitchen.

    7. Re:Pretty lights? by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 1

      What about the bathroom/wc?

      --
      -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
    8. Re:Pretty lights? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Can I see it?

  24. Re:It's??? by Ichijo · · Score: 3, Funny

    Because if I'm gonna fry, I don't think I want to spend my last few minutes on Earth surrounded by grammar Nazis.

    Don't worry, the apostrophe is silent.

    --
    Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
  25. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Welcome to the internet.

  26. The moon never pulls shit like this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    The moon never pulls shit like this.

        from The Onion

    1. Re:The moon never pulls shit like this by ks*nut · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but do you know how the Moon was formed? Something roughly the size of Mars took a Moon-sized chunk out of the Earth. I'll take the solar flares, please.

    2. Re:The moon never pulls shit like this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The moon never pulls shit like this.

          from The Onion

      Yes it does... Full Moon; I used to be a werewolf but I am alright nowwwwww!

  27. the Sun is sentient by Thud457 · · Score: 2

    This overly drawn-out Republican primaries anger the Sun God.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    1. Re:the Sun is sentient by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No it was telemarketers...And YES that sun is pissed!

  28. Re:It's??? by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

    yeah yeah yeah, I noticed it after I submitted. Should've checked before hitting submit, yada yada yada...

    --
    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
  29. Flare's Up! by mjjochen · · Score: 1

    Dude! I got my board and my photon sail. I'm hangin' TEN! Er, uh, X5! Gnarly dude.

    1. Re:Flare's Up! by El_Oscuro · · Score: 1

      You might want to try one of these. They are pretty useful if you want to skate something like The rim of the world

      --
      "Be grateful for what you have. You may never know when you may lose it."
  30. Re:It's??? by g0bshiTe · · Score: 1

    Programming is their fourth language.

    --
    I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
  31. Glance off? Looks like a direct hit! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    check it out here.
    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20120307_014400_anim.tim-den.gif

    1. Re:Glance off? Looks like a direct hit! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      even as A/C +1 Interesting

  32. Re:It's??? by Deus.1.01 · · Score: 1

    AAAH!! Don't say that word!

    --
    My -1 Troll is actually a +1 funny. And my -1 flame is actually a +1 insightfull.
  33. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So when he logs off and someone else logs on to the same ISP, an innocent person will be banned from slashdot. wtf, I thought this was a tech site.

  34. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Stop being stupid...please ?
    It's correct as it is.

    the "major X5 solar flare" IS...etc

  35. too late -- the flare already hit. by oneiros27 · · Score: 5, Informative

    The flare travels at the speed of light ... so we've already been hit by it. The CME is what's going to come tomorrow morning (or tonight, depending on your time zone)

    And the "spot number" as this article called it is actually NOAA Active Region #11429. I'm sick of this modulo 10000 value -- AR1429 was decades ago. (the list I'm looking at starts at AR6777, which was in August 1991)

    I'll leave it for some other time to rant about the difference between 'sunspot number' (a subjective number to describe the amount of spot coverage on the sun in the visible spectrum which goes back centuries) vs. 'active region number' (a NOAA index of spots seen in x-ray)

    --
    Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
    1. Re:too late -- the flare already hit. by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

      You're totally right, my bad. I should have said the CME from the flare will deliver a glancing blow to the planet. I didn't know that bit about the AR1429 vs. AR11429, very interesting. Is that something that NOAA has started doing, or is it just spaceweather.com? (I didn't call it "spot number", I just called it "spot 1429". Should have said "AR11429".)

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    2. Re:too late -- the flare already hit. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Great, now we have to deal with Astronomy Nazis...

    3. Re:too late -- the flare already hit. by oneiros27 · · Score: 2

      They've been doing it since AR#9999, which was in June 2002.

      And it's NOAA's doing -- they have a number of different formats they use for distributing information, but they're all fixed-width ASCII files, and very few of them actually use the 5-digit forms. To the best of my knowledge, all of the 'space weather' related products use the 4-digit values, but it's most obvious on the SPE catalog, as that's over a longer period:

      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/SRS.txt
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/SGAS.txt
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/dayobs.txt
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/dayevt.txt
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/SPE.txt

      But if you look at the long-term products, they use 5 digit AR numbers:

      ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_XRAY/2010/xray2010
      ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_XRAY/docs/xray.fmt.rev

      Although they occassionaly bounce back and forth, eg:

      ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/FLARES_HALPHA/Events/2010/f_event.10

      (and for those who wonder why I know this ... it's because I've written parsers to ingest these files into databases so scientists can do statistical analysis ... and there's evidence that some of these have been maintained by hand over the years ... take a look at the SPE catalog -- there's a Jan 2012 event listed, but the header says it runs through March 2011. (they at least tell you what time period they analyzed ... as they have multi-year gaps between some events ... most catalogs don't do that)

      --
      Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
    4. Re:too late -- the flare already hit. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why I hear Sheldon's voice when I read this? =)

  36. Flare? by pahles · · Score: 1

    It's a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) heading our way, not a flare. A CME is a result of this flare.

    --
    Sig?
  37. Carrington Event ? by AttyBobDobalina · · Score: 1

    Why does it seem I am the only one that is concerned about what's going to happen when one of these flares whacks the power grid in the Northeast U.S.? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 Oh, that's right - the US Gov't is real concerned too. - http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/ So here's what really concerns me - say, the entire Northeast grid goes down. There are a number of nuclear plants that have cooling pools for spent fuel rods, just like Fukushima. So what happens when - just like Fukushima - the power goes down and the pool pumps can't run for lack of electricity - Won't that be like Fukushima x (no. of nuclear plants in the Northeast)? Don't mean to be alarmist, but someone tell me where I am wrong on this?

    1. Re:Carrington Event ? by networkBoy · · Score: 3, Informative

      Because in the case of grid failure they will run on diesel generators.
      Which are off and relatively safe until the grid blows, which is after the CME is passed, then they start (even if a delay of manual starting is required, no worries). And in this case there is not a wall of seawater to drown the gennes.
      -nB

      --
      whois gawk date unzip strip find touch finger mount join nice man top fsck grep eject more yes exit umount sleep dump
    2. Re:Carrington Event ? by geekoid · · Score: 1

      In order for it to be an issue, you will need a tidal wave to damage/remove the back up generators.

      So, to answer your question, nothing. On the plus side, they will allows to start restoring electricity very quickly.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:Carrington Event ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ice cores contain thin nitrate-rich layers that can be used to reconstruct a history of past events before reliable observations. These show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.[9] Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported.

    4. Re:Carrington Event ? by JoeRobe · · Score: 1

      The Northeast grid has gone down before, and there were no meltdowns. As other folks have pointed out, those things have backup generators. I assume that in the blackout of 2003, those generators kicked on.

      --
      The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
    5. Re:Carrington Event ? by benjamindees · · Score: 1

      And are the generators sufficiently isolated from the grid to prevent damage?

      --
      "I assumed blithely that there were no elves out there in the darkness"
    6. Re:Carrington Event ? by AttyBobDobalina · · Score: 1

      Again, not an engineer here, but if the CME / magnetic pulse is large enough in magnitude, couldn't it also effect the circuitry on the generators, independently?

    7. Re:Carrington Event ? by networkBoy · · Score: 1

      The circuits likely to be impacted would relate to the auto starting functionality. There is enough thermal mass in the cooling ponds to support no circulation for long enough to get a human down there to start them.
      -nB

      --
      whois gawk date unzip strip find touch finger mount join nice man top fsck grep eject more yes exit umount sleep dump
  38. Re:it's its by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1, Funny

    I thought this was a tech site.

    You got the tense right: This was a tech site.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  39. Re:it's its by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 1

    Stop being stupid...please ? It's correct as it is.

    the "major X5 solar flare" IS...etc

    It's been corrected; meaning the main story. The first sentence originally read, "According to spaceweather.com, a major X5 solar flare is on it's way to deliver a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field." That is incorrect. Dropping the apostrophe has now made it correct.

    --
    Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
  40. Link NOAA model of aurora activity and visibility by RossR · · Score: 4, Informative

    NOAA forecast model of aurora activity and visibility

    http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

    If the little red line is south of your location, you might see something (assuming northern hemisphere). So far no love for the lower 48.

  41. Re:It's??? by aix+tom · · Score: 2

    Don't worry, Etymology-Man will rescue us. Probably by pointing out that we are not really getting "fried", more like getting "microwaved".

  42. Re:It's??? by mcavic · · Score: 2

    Well you just used "==" the wrong way.

    Not really. "==" means "that's how it is". "=" means "I declare it that way because I'm the God of grammar".

  43. Re:it's its by geekoid · · Score: 1

    He said in an article about solar flares.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  44. Re:It's??? by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

    "It's" == "it is" or "it has". No exceptions.
    The possessive form of "it" is "its".
    Maybe it's because English is my 3rd language but this is one of my pet peeves.

    Yeah?
    Well you just used "==" the wrong way.

    No, he's just using C++ and an user-defined operator==.

    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  45. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ahhhh my bad :)

  46. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm sorry for the children who have to grow up listening to language like this from their parents... poor kids.

  47. Aurorae? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Does this mean Aurorae? Is there any way to predict when/where Aurorae would be visible? I live in NYC and we dont get many changes to see northern lights.

    1. Re:Aurorae? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When the grid goes down and the lights goes off let us know if you see anything.

  48. Re:It's??? by Progman3K · · Score: 3, Funny

    Programming is their Forth language

    FTFY

    --
    I don't know the meaning of the word 'don't' - J
  49. Re:it's its by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Where the event dividing the past from the present is the arrival of cuntwipes who don't know what a dynamic IP address is?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  50. Re:It's??? by nedlohs · · Score: 1

    No, you can't create a user defined operator== with both arguments being primitive types.

  51. Re:It's??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Better to have some grammar Nazis than being surrounded by sun's gamma Nazis ...

  52. Re:It's??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Right, because in the 600+ years since his death, English has remained completely unchanged.

  53. Re:it's its by geekoid · · Score: 1

    About the same time people started thinking all IPs are dynamic.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  54. Re:Link NOAA model of aurora activity and visibili by green1 · · Score: 1

    I really enjoyed the northern lights here in Canada last night, watched them from the comfort of my backyard hot-tub. I've certainly seen them before, but I don't think I've ever seen them from inside the city before, usually the light polution overpowers them, these were quite vivid!

  55. Re:just go away by cpu6502 · · Score: 1

    why are you still here?

    leave. no one likes you.

    Really? Did you take a poll Anonymous Coward? Please share the results. (Oh and why are you posting AC instead of using your real ID?)

    --
    My AC stalker: " I personally agree with your posts most of the time, but that won't keep me from modding you troll"
  56. Re:It's??? by Smauler · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Where would the apostrophe go in his? Hi's? That doesn't make sense. To make sense, "his" would actually be "hes". It's not.

    ps. I know the apostrophe rules for it. Its rules depend on its situation, and if it's not been used correctly, it's annoying. However, using "his" as an example of how coherent it's, is counterproductive IMO, since the way "he" becomes "his" is non-intuitive.

    There are also places where it's unwise to replace "it is" with "it's", as in my previous sentence.

  57. Re:It's??? by Aaron+B+Lingwood · · Score: 1

    Very clever.

    --
    [Rent This Space]
  58. Re:Link NOAA model of aurora activity and visibili by ks*nut · · Score: 1

    The Aurora is darned difficult to see with full Moon in the sky.

  59. Then There's AP's coverage by rueger · · Score: 2
    You can't make this shit up:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Earth's magnetic field is about to be shaken like a snow globe by the largest solar storm in five years. After hurtling through space for a day and a half, a massive cloud of charged particles is due to arrive early Thursday and could disrupt utility grids, airline flights, satellite networks and GPS services, especially in northern areas.

    Sky, meet Chicken Little.

  60. Re:it's its by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1
  61. 124 posts so far... by scottbomb · · Score: 1

    And I have to scroll down 3/4 the way to find actual, intellectual, on-topic discussion.

    Thank you, nani popoki, for getting the ball rolling.

  62. Re:it's its by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't know if they still do IP bans, but I know they did them in 2004. That year, when I got a new ISP, I got a banned IP address. I sent them an email about it and was basically told to pound sand. The ban was temporary. I couldn't tell you for how long, because I didn't bother coming back for a few months after their email.

  63. How big woud it have to be? by theshowmecanuck · · Score: 1

    How big/powerful would a solar flare have to be before it became a concern for humans? I mean above not being able to watch America's Next Top [contest-name]tard.

    --
    -- I ignore anonymous replies to my comments and postings.
  64. Re:just go away by voidphoenix · · Score: 1

    Talking to yourself again, eh?

  65. It's a warning by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We've had *two* solar flares glancing off the Earth?
    Hello?? Two shots across the bow and no one here recognising the obvious?
    Dude, the Sun is shooting warning shots at us!

      We better stop in our orbit now, open up hailing frequencies and listen to their demands.
    After all, they may be far off, but their station is a hell of a lot bigger than a small moon. We can't match that kind of firepower!

  66. Re:just go away by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Really? Did you take a poll Anonymous Coward?

    Not the same AC, but... yes, actually. It's called your karma / moderation score.

    Look, as I've said before, I support your views. But the way you present them... you are doing more harm than good. Learn how to not be a troll, please. It pained me whenever I had to downmod you, but your posts did more harm than good for whatever view you were trying to push.

  67. Not the reporters fault... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm sure that's what the researchers told the reporter... After the actual details, then the analogies about cars, blankets, and magic faeries all failed, the snow globe analogy finally stuck.

  68. And they say... by DiEx-15 · · Score: 1

    ...that Global warming is a hoax!

  69. Re:It's??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    He's coming right at us! *smash*

    http://www.hark.com/clips/sspyztkdpx-hes-coming-right-at-us

    Wish I could find a video clip for this (Airplane)

  70. Good news for Iratans by Kandei · · Score: 1

    Energy output will go up by 50 percent, so scrounge up 50 bucks and convert your Multi-Use Labor Element... g-d I'm old.