Slashdot Mirror

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

Experts Warn Of Possible North Korean Nuclear Test

Posted by Soulskill on from the what-could-possibly-go-wrong dept.

After the recent failure of North Korea's rocket launch test, experts are warning that the country's leadership will likely try to save face by following it up with a nuclear weapons test. According to CBS, "The rocket launch had been hailed as a moment of national pride, but it disintegrated over the Yellow Sea, earning it embarrassment as well as condemnation from a host of nations that deemed it a covert test of missile technology. In a rare move for Pyongyang, the government admitted that the rocket did not deliver a satellite, but it also pressed ahead with grandiose propaganda in praise of the ruling Kim family." The Guardian adds, "Speculation is mounting that the North will attempt to claw back some of its credibility with a third nuclear test. Recent satellite images from the site used for previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 suggested plans for another underground explosion were already in place before the Unha-3 rocket broke apart and splashed into the Yellow Sea on Friday morning."

15 of 101 comments (clear)

  1. Re:kaboom !!! by P-niiice · · Score: 5, Funny

    A very Un-ha first post - broke up and fell into the internet.

  2. Re:Maybe it was shot down! by jellomizer · · Score: 5, Funny

    The star wars project was actually a success.  It was only deemed a failure, as to keep our enemies off guard.

    --
    If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
  3. Sigh by Intrepid+imaginaut · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Really at this stage its gone well beyond a joke. I have friends in Japan who were quite worried about this, to say nothing of the sheer evil of the regime itself. Maybe its time to bite the bullet and just cut off food aid to North Korea so they are forced to reduce the size of their army and actually feed their own people? Or would Kim go for a full on invasion of the South in reality?

    1. Re:Sigh by ATestR · · Score: 4, Informative

      forced to reduce the size of their army and actually feed their own people

      Don't think that it would have this effect... NK has been generally starving the people for decades in favor of military might.

      --
      âoeAny society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.
    2. Re:Sigh by Nidi62 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Maybe its time to bite the bullet and just cut off food aid to North Korea so they are forced to reduce the size of their army and actually feed their own people? Or would Kim go for a full on invasion of the South in reality?

      He would probably just let his people die. The problem is, if we did cut off the food aid to North Korea, the government would use that as an internal propaganda tool by saying we were trying to kill off everyone, or something. The sad thing is that most North Koreans would probably believe it, because they have been isolated and indoctrinated for so long. North Korea is really like the old lady with all the cats that lives a few doors down from you. She's crazy as hell, but basically harmless. On top of that, no sane, rational person would want the deaths of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of innocent people from starvation (and if you read stories, most of them are on the brink of starvation already) on their conscience. It really is sad when governments hold their own people as hostages just so they can stay in power.

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    3. Re:Sigh by DrgnDancer · · Score: 5, Insightful

      CNN had a fairly coherent opinion piece on the question of why no one wants to piss of North Korea any further despite obvious provocation (this rocket launch isn't the first, nor even the worst provocation they've performed). Basically the guy's point boiled down to a three tier deterrent used by North Korea's government to make them immune from serious attack:

      1) They're fricken nuts. No one knows exactly how nuts they are, and no one particularly wants to find out. Even by the standards of repressive totalitarian regimes, the North Koreans are in a class by themselves. Most of South Korea, and all of Seoul is in range of North Korean artillery. It's widely accepted that unless China were willing to engage in open war in support of the North (unlikely), they'd be pounded into dog meat in short order by combined US, South Korean, and (probably) Japanese troops. That won't stop them from shelling Seoul, possibly with chemical weapons, and maybe hitting Tokyo with some medium range missiles before they go down. They're willing to let their own people starve to death in mass numbers to keep themselves in power, they sure aren't going to be concerned about "enemy" civilians.

      2) No one wants to deal with the repercussions. Assuming we (for a value of "we" intended to mean the US and some portion of our Asian allies) go in, wipe the floor with the North Korean Army, and they don't manage to do to terribly much damage to Seoul in the process... then we have North Korea? Yay? The country is more or less without any infrastructure. A good portion of the population is starving. They're mostly brainwashed. The only thing that's had any resources at all dedicated to it in the last 50 years is the military we just presumably smashed... The quagmire's in Iraq and Afghanistan will seem like positive fun times in comparison. As the author put is (I'm paraphrasing), "You're looking at a generation worth of South Korean time and treasure just to get the place to where it could be functional". Nobody wants to deal with that.

      3) They have nukes. See also (1) & (2). No one knows if they're crazy enough to use the nukes as a last ditch "take the world down with us" strategy, and no one has any idea how many there are or where. When the inevitable chaos of (2) starts, any nukes not flung at Seoul as a last spit in the eye have a high potential to become rogue. Not a pretty picture.

      I can't seem to find the article now, which is a bit annoying, but it seems to be pretty well thought out. The typical reason for doing nothing about North Korea is China, but honestly at this point I don't think even the Chinese really like them. They'd just rather have a broke and desperate North on their border than a unified and strong Korea.

      --
      I don't need a million points of light, just two points of multi-mode fiber and a 10 Gig-E router.
    4. Re:Sigh by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Funny

      Really at this stage its gone well beyond a joke.

      It was never a joke. Many people have died. It's dead serious.

      Which isn't to say we can't laugh about it. Though any joke I can think of will fall as flat as a North Korean rocket.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    5. Re:Sigh by Nidi62 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I doubt China would ever do that. Consider this analogy: think of the international community as a night club, and China is going in there looking to get picked up by someone. Now, China isn't the best looking person out there, but China is ok. So they bring along North Korea, their ugly friend. Suddenly China looks a lot better, and is much more easily accepted by everyone there. Now, to break the analogy, as long as North Korea stays, well, North Korea, China has someone they can always point to and be like "hey, look, we're not as bad as them" as well as always have a way to garner some good will; "hey, we just sent them a whole bunch of food and medical supplies, see how nice we are?"

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    6. Re:Sigh by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Keep in mind that you're talking about the country with universal conscription that can last up to 10 years - about 20% of the entire adult male population is in the military. Every male citizen would have served there, and most would have kids serving. So there's no clear dividing boundary between army and civilians.

    7. Re:Sigh by hedley · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I was chatting with a mainland Chinese fellow the other day and he said that China keeps them as a friend because they piss of the US. That is useful to China. So, as long as China keeps DPRK's actions to their palatable threshold, China is OK with it. Esp, if the US is unhappy.

  4. Re:Maybe it was shot down! by Nidi62 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The technology has been around since the 80's, so why not?

    Why waste the power and confirm that you have the ability to do so on a target that you already knew was going to be crap and fall apart or otherwise not make orbit? IN any case, Japan actually did announce beforehand that they were seriously considering shooting down the rocket/missile if it passed over Japanese territory. And, from what I understand, the other 2 previous launches by North Korea were always followed by a nuclear test ( I remember reading this, but I honestly do not remember where).

    --
    The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
  5. Re:General interest news on a tech news site? by GodInHell · · Score: 4, Informative

    *cough* "News for nerds, stuff that matters.

    That includes more than just the latest in gadgetry. Also -- Rockets and Nuclear bombs -- how is this not tech related?

    -GiH

  6. Re:Maybe it was shot down! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    The tt tag was actually a success. It was only deemed a failure, because people thought it was supposed to be readable.

  7. Re:So is there anything that might be recoverable? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    How so? It's not like there would be anything new to learn. More than likely, the capsule was a poorly designed, cobbled together collection of components, with most of the designs stolen imperfectly from russian and chinese sources. Maybe U.S. sources.

    The point is, a great artist isn't going to learn anything by going to a kindergarden art class and watching 6 year olds scribble with crayons. Nor are the engineers at Lockheed Martin likely to learn much, either.

    As for the purpose of the capsule : obviously it's intended to deliver a nuclear bomb. Again, nothing new there. Obviously once the North Koreans have such a capability, they won't have to worry about being invaded.

  8. Re:I'd love to know how they spun by h4rr4r · · Score: 4, Informative

    This is not true. They have their own news site on the real internet. The site is hosted in Japan.

    http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2012/201203/news29/20120329-32ee.html

    That is an article about the rocket before launch.