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Game Theory, Antivirus Improvements Explain Rise In Mac Malware
Sparrowvsrevolution writes "Four years ago, security researcher Adam J. O'Donnell used game theory to predict in a paper for IEEE Security and Privacy when malware authors would start targeting Macs. Based on some rough assumptions and a little algebra, he found that it would only become profitable to target Apple's population of users when they reached 16% market share. So why are we now seeing mass attacks on Macs like the Flashback trojan when Apple only has 11% market share? O'Donnell says it turns out he may have underestimated the effectiveness of the antivirus used by most Windows users, which now makes overconfident Mac users a relatively vulnerable and much more appealing target. Based on current antivirus detection rates, O'Donnell's equations now show that victimizing Macs becomes a profitable alternative to PCs at just 6.5% market share."
How it security by obscurity treating you now?
In all of the fights between Windows and Mac users over the disparity in viruses for both platforms, I've never seen a Windows user point out the fact that Windows is often used on infrastructure that is valuable to compromise. No major business runs their corporate infrastructure on Macs. No major sites with valuable data I know of are hosted on Apple hardware. What has changed with the marketshare is that now Macs are used by the upper-middle and upper classes extensively at work and at home. So even at 6.5% of the market, you're far more likely now to compromise a Mac with valuable data or access to it now.
Compromise a Mac today and you might get access to a corporate network, a richer man/woman's bank information, etc. That wasn't true 10 years ago.
He says himself that the equation is vastly oversimplified, and a small change in antivirus detection range changes the answer from 16 to 6%. That means the equation is all-but useless and pointless to try to "predict" anything except, apparently, in hindsight.
I could have plucked any number I liked out of the air and wrote a (reasonable) equation to make it come out with whatever answer I wanted, even basing it on "game theory" (which has very, very, very little relevance here, actually) - I could have done that even before I graduated in mathematics (including Game Theory) over a decade ago.
When enough Mac's exist to make it viable (and market share has little to do with it compared to "number of computers active on the Internet" of that particular model), viruses will target them. Guess what, same for every other platform on the planet. If someone miraculously sells a popular device based on MINIX that millions start buying, eventually someone will write a virus for that platform.
Seriously - don't give it the press.
Let's see what our wise men can come up with:
1) Write a "scientific" paper, make assumptions, use some "algorithm", predict event A
2) Wait
3) Observe empirical evidence
4) Revise initial paper
5) Bask in peer admiration
Did I miss anything?
Tis a feature, allowed by the Almighty Jobs as a test thy faith in Apple .. so only mayest the True Believers be granted the next iDevice.
While I realize there may be some outrage over the "overconfident" label, it does make sense in terms of learned behavior. More specifically, Windows users have known malware has been rampant for so long that:
A) they're used to having to use antivirus, firewalls and other "security" type apps
B) Windows has steadily improved its built-in firewall and anti-trojan features to combat real and perceived vulnerability
C) Windows-based PC OEMs and system builders install anti-virus by default and have for quite some time now.
I can't say whether Macs get a/v software by default but despite our joking about macs not being susceptible to malware, that view is held by far too many mac users. While it might be true statistically speaking relative to Windows, it is unhelpful in being a rightfully vigilant denizen of this wretched hive of scum and villainy we call the Internet.
http://www.apple.com/why-mac/better-os/#viruses
Is this true? Yes, but only because the malware they are talking about was written specifically for Windows. It has nothing to do with the "built-in defenses in Mac OS X that keep you safe". It is at best disingenuous because the average user reads that to mean "Macs can't get malware".