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The Artificial Life of the App Store

mikejuk writes "How does the Apple App Store actually work? What is the best strategy to employ if you want to get some users and make some money? There are some pointers on how it all works from an unusual source — artificial life. A pair of researchers Soo Ling Lim and Peter Bentley from University College London, set up an artificial life simulation of the app store's ecosystem. They created app developers with strategies such as — innovate, copy other apps, create useless variations on a basic app or try and optimize the app you have. What they found, among other things, was that the CopyCat strategy was on average the best. When they allow the strategies to compete and developer agents to swap then the use of the CopyCat fell to only 10%. The reason — more than 10% CopyCats resulted in nothing new to copy!"

30 of 106 comments (clear)

  1. Perhaps they can... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Perhaps they can simulate how to make slashdot summaries make sense next?

    1. Re:Perhaps they can... by Sarten-X · · Score: 4, Informative

      This one makes a decent amount of sense to me, though I did do previous work in artificial life simulators...

      Effectively, they built a simulation of the app store, and filled it with developers following several different strategies, and presumably a feedback function that models expected consumer behavior. The simulation was left to run, and interesting results were gathered. TFA is actually a rather well-written explanation that's worth reading.

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    2. Re:Perhaps they can... by plover · · Score: 4, Funny

      Perhaps they can simulate how to make slashdot summaries make sense next?

      Seriously, if you can't understand this one, go play on facebook or whatever the kids are doing these days. Your life is wasted here, as is a fraction of ours for reading your inane drivel.

      --
      John
    3. Re:Perhaps they can... by wiredlogic · · Score: 2

      We do get the privilege of using more than 160 chars here kiddos. Time to work on the parseable sentences.

      --
      I am becoming gerund, destroyer of verbs.
  2. Useful Fitness-Function? by allo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Of course a copycat can be minimum efford maximum profit in a simplified model, but this strongly depends on the calculation of the fitness-function. I think it can be hard to match the real world fitness-function, because some of the factors that are relevant to an actual user are hard to calculate.

    1. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by goombah99 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There's more than one utility function. For example, if wrote an app I would not expect to profit, it would be for fun. Thus I'd give it away for free or a dollar. Someone else might be hoping to make a living at it. too bad.

      --
      Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    2. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by Zerth · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I wonder if they included the idea that frequently it is the copycat that takes off, while the originator languishes in obscurity.

    3. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by gstrickler · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That is why I refuse to use any Zynga owned game. Even if they purchased the original rather than copy it, they'll use the profits to copy others.

      --
      make imaginary.friends COUNT=100 VISIBLE=false
    4. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by plover · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There's more than one utility function. For example, if wrote an app I would not expect to profit, it would be for fun. Thus I'd give it away for free or a dollar. Someone else might be hoping to make a living at it. too bad.

      This simulation was built to identify profit models, not to maximize developer happiness. But the two are related, and profit will be an element everyone can measure.

      Consider if the app you created turned out to be really fun and truly innovative, and it went viral and sold five hundred thousand copies at $0.99.

      If nothing else, you'd learn that half a million users can be awfully demanding. You might find yourself mired in support requests, and have to decide whether or not you can support it yourself or if you want to sell it to a game company so they can manage it. If nothing else, you might be surprised when you discover you have to pay taxes on a whole lot more income than you thought. The point is that at some financial threshold, you will probably have to take it seriously. My threshold might be higher or lower than yours, but in this simulation, it doesn't really matter. It would change your personal view of profiting from your work.

      --
      John
    5. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by gstrickler · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Are you just trolling or do you not know about Zynga's practices? Google them, they copy most of their game ideas, while filing suit against anyone who copies one of their game ideas. They're completely amoral, or worse.

      --
      make imaginary.friends COUNT=100 VISIBLE=false
    6. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by Kergan · · Score: 4, Informative

      There's more than one utility function. For example, if wrote an app I would not expect to profit, it would be for fun. Thus I'd give it away for free or a dollar. Someone else might be hoping to make a living at it. too bad.

      Too bad? If you're not meaning for the customer/end-user, I'd wager you never wrote any such app; or any OSS app, for that matter. And that those who tagged you as insightful haven't either.

      In the real world, app development is just the beginning. Unless you decide to accept no feedback whatsoever, which is a losing proposition, you're in for a lot more feedback, emails and/or forum posts than you ever wish you'll ever read in your entire lifetime if you're even remotely successful. It's absolutely insane. Your success will destroy you unless you've an adequate means to scale -- whether monetization or extra funding.

      So here you are, quacking that you'd happily share an app. For free. You'll keep your day job as you do. Someone out there actually wants to make a living off of a similar app. But he or she will get less or no business because you released that -- soon to be unsupported -- app at in an inadequately low price point.

      Look... It's one thing to be competing with a Chinese team who can field $500/month coders to support their app, or with crap hobbyists who only have a slight clue of what they're doing. Those are mostly manageable in practice. It's an entirely different thing to compete with hobbyists who distribute good products without any interest in having a sustainable business.

      Think of it this way: for every $100/month "cool, I got some pocket money I barely couldn't care about" app out there, an actual person who does care might be losing his job. So please do yourself a favor, do that guy a favor, and -- most importantly, in the long term -- do the customer a favor, and don't release it unless you work out your business model first. Else you're just building a mine field for those who do care.

    7. Re:Useful Fitness-Function? by compgenius3 · · Score: 2

      Interesting argument, having written an Android app that was the first of its kind, I disagree with your argument that hobbyist development takes away jobs. If anything, it can create jobs, exactly because of the "copycat" phenomenon. I wrote an app that was the first of its kind available in the Android Market. There was at least one similar for iOS before I wrote mine. About a month after my first release, I discovered that another company had hired a developer (possibly more than one) to basically copy my app. In the end, because I was unable to dedicate my full attention to the project, and wanted to do other things, their app became far more popular than mine. The point is, someone who relies on app development for a living can easily compete with, and outperform, a hobbyist who only sees it as a fun side project that is nice to make some extra cash from.

      --
      Sexual intercourse is kicking death in the ass while singing. ~Charles Bukowski
  3. Interesting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    In my simulation the best strategy was to take 30% of everyone's revenues.

    1. Re:Interesting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Your study is flawed. For many App Store developers, Apple gets much more than a mere 30% of the developer's revenue.

      To develop and market a $0.99 or $1.99 app, the developer needs to drop many thousands of dollars on various pieces of Apple hardware, and then there's the annual fee that needs to be paid, too. And that's all in addition to the 30% you mention.

      For every developer who does turn an actual profit, there are likely many thousands who suffer very significant losses, even if they try to deny it. Yes, it is considered a net loss when you have to spend $3000 or more for an Apple computer, an iPhone, an iPad, and the annual fee, in addition to many hours of work, just to bring in $50 to $100 in revenue.

    2. Re:Interesting by gstrickler · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's no different than any other development model, or most other businesses. Starting a business is a risk, welcome to reality.

      --
      make imaginary.friends COUNT=100 VISIBLE=false
    3. Re:Interesting by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

      You say this as if one doesn't already own a computer. The computer that's already on your desk and paid for won't work.

      For most developers it will. Been to any technical conferences or colleges lately?

      No, it's $200 for a second operating system on top of the cost of a Mac if you want to run the software that you already have.

      Now you are making up $200 out of thin air.

      "Just"?

      Yep. That's a pretty small price for the resources you get, including all WWDC videos. It's low enough it blocks no-one that can afford a computer, at all.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    4. Re:Interesting by sribe · · Score: 2

      To be even remotely productive, at the very least you'll need to be getting a MacBook Pro.

      Because of course the MacBook has a much faster processor, oh wait it's only a smidge faster, with more cores, oh wait not if you buy the server version, with a faster disk, oh wait no it doesn't, and greater max RAM, oh wait no it doesn't...

      Most of the app developers I've worked with have insisted on using a Mac Pro.

      Until recently I was the only one I know that still did so. I sold my old 8-core Xeon 5300 Mac Pro and am pretty happy with my MacBook Pro now which has a slightly higher clock than a Mini but no other real advantage other than portability.

      Third of all, buying "refurb" or used devices is likely a very stupid idea, especially if you aren't buying from the most reliable sources.

      Refurbs come from Apple. Likely the OP chose his words carefully and precisely when he said "refurb" rather than "used".

      So, you have a point about equipment for testing. Other than that though, the whole post was basically bullshit exaggeration for effect.

    5. Re:Interesting by drkstr1 · · Score: 2

      Oh, and for the record, we develop in Eclipse on Windows 7. The Mac mini sits in the corner until we're ready to push a release. The only thing it does is run a little utility to upload the binary to the app store, a function that can easily be done as part of the web based dashboard used to enter in all the other information about the app. Apple CHOSE not to do this so they could extract more money from developers. Thanks Apple! [end rant]

      --
      Fanboy Status: Apache Flex, C#, Eclipse, KDE, Pirate Party, Ron Paul, Slackware, Windows 7
    6. Re:Interesting by RobbieThe1st · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I must point out that you are missing one crucial factor - Just because your app doesn't sell(or does, for that matter), the hardware is still usable. You can always install Windows on your Mac and have a fully functional PC and develop for Windows(same with Linux, for that matter). You can also use that same machine as a gaming/internet box. So the real "apple tax" is more like $99/year + (cost of Mac - cost of equavlent Dell system) + cost of iDevice(and possibly +$100 for a copy of windows). Not quite as high as it might seem.

      Disclaimer: I do not own any Apple products, and consider iDevices useless junk. But that doesn't mean I can't give credit where it is due.

    7. Re:Interesting by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2

      Ha. If you require a Mac Pro to develop software for a phone you're doing something seriously wrong. Apple's dev tools work just fine on my old circa 2008 MacBook or old mini.

      Yeah, you could buy a bunch of devices to test on, but if you're not a big company you can just get some friends to test for you.

      Anyway, none of that is different than development for any other system.

    8. Re:Interesting by gmhowell · · Score: 2

      If OP has to buy three iPhones, a couple of iPads, etc, etc, etc. then if you are developing for Android, you'll, of course, buy 18 kajillion phones and tablets.

      No way that costs more than $6k.

      --
      Jesus was all right but his disciples were thick and ordinary. -John Lennon
  4. Re:Parasitic infestation... by sandytaru · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It died out because not even hippies like to camp out in the winter. The current reboot of it is calling itself "The American Spring" or "the 99% spring" and they're back to protesting now that the weather is warm again.

    --
    Occasionally living proof of the Ballmer peak.
  5. Re:Parasitic infestation... by c0lo · · Score: 2

    I hope that healthcare you can afford results in malpractice and kills you, bourgie scum.

    I live in a country that has universal health care, you unfortunate and sad excuse for a human being.

    --
    Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
  6. Re:Parasitic infestation... by gman003 · · Score: 2

    Gentlemen, we see here a textbook example of homo sapiens capitalus in it's natural environment: shortly to be the first against the wall when the revolution comes.

  7. Re:Parasitic infestation... by whoever57 · · Score: 3, Informative

    "The 1%" includes most *households* in the US with an income somewhere between $200-250k, which is easily achieved these days by a 2-professional household with a few years of industry experience in their respective fields.

    Try again. To be in the 1%, you must have an adjusted gross income of $343,927 which would probably equate to an unadjusted family income of over $400,000. Not easily achievable.

    --
    The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
  8. Re:So few rules by shmlco · · Score: 2

    "Mac OS X is derived from Mach, a BSD [wikipedia.org] variant."

    And that's what comes from getting al of your "knowledge" from Wikipedia. First, reread for comprehension. He didn't say Mac OS X, he said Mac OS, as in the original 1984 Mac OS that was NOT based in any way, shape, or form on Unix.

    Mac OS 1.0 was based on original work and UI work done on the Lisa OS, and both drew heavily from work licensed from Xerox's work on the Alto (which Xerox later tried to market as the Star).

    The original Windows code was based on the interface work done for Mac and Lisa, and released as an add-on to DOS a year after the Mac was released, and two years after Lisa.

    --
    Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
  9. Re:So few rules by gstrickler · · Score: 2, Informative

    Yes, Mac OS/LISA were inspired by what they saw at Xerox PARC. However, if you've read up on those, the people who actually worked at PARC said that LISA/Mac went far beyond what they had done or envisioned.

    "the Apple work extended PARC's considerably, adding manipulatable icons, and drag&drop manipulation of objects in the file system (see Macintosh Finder) for example. A list of the improvements made by Apple, beyond the PARC interface, can be read at Folklore.org."

    My knowledge doesn't come from Wikipedia, I've been in this industry for 30+ years. I just use Wikipedia to support my statements.

    --
    make imaginary.friends COUNT=100 VISIBLE=false
  10. Re:$99 per year by Jeremi · · Score: 2

    The "not for profit" part of the previous post suggest he would not recoup his costs, nor would he expect to.

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  11. Why do you go full-retard? by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    Not lately, but when I attended Rose-HulmanMSRP for Windows 7 retail. (The OEM version isn't for Macs.)

    You had to go full retard...

    Why would you buy that?

    That would assume you have Windows applications already you'd like to run. Which means YOU ALREADY OWN A WINDOWS BOX YOU CAN KEEP USING!

    Retard.

    The secondary level of mental damage you exhibit, the one that has you going FULL retard, is knowing you CAN run OEM Windows 7 copies under virtualization but insisting people know or care what the license says. Pointing at a license means nothing, especially when as noted you are retarded and cannot understand it anyway.

    I had to use the word "retard", but honestly you deserve it. The really sad thing is you will continue to post the same retarded notions in thread after thread after thread even after being corrected. That in the end, the inability to learn from your terrible mistakes, is what earns you the "retarded" label. Or at best, idiot savant since you can type.

    I'll grant you the last response, I have done enough to prove to the casual reader of your mental deficiency so there's no further need to read or respond to whatever pours forth from you.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  12. Re:Not for profit defined by LDAPMAN · · Score: 3, Informative

    That's not what it generally means in the US. A "not for profit" here is literally an organization that does some function, usually charitable or community service, that is not intended to make a profit. In fact, I believe they are legally prohibited from making a profit if they wish to maintain their special tax status.