Slashdot Mirror
Is Extraterrestrial Life More Whimsical Than Plausible?
coondoggie writes "Princeton University researchers are throwing some cold water on the hot notion that astrobiologists and other scientists expect to one day find life on other planets. Recent discoveries of planets similar to Earth in size and proximity to the planets' respective suns have sparked scientific and public excitement about the possibility of also finding Earth-like life on those worlds, but the expectation that life — from bacteria to sentient beings — has or will develop on other planets as on Earth might be based more on optimism than scientific evidence."
is keeping us from discovering extraterrestrial life.
...since the one in the story appears dead.
Expectation of extraterrestrial life built more on optimism than evidence
http://www.rdmag.com/News/2012/04/General-Science-Expectation-Of-Extraterrestrial-Life-Built-More-On-Optimism-Than-Evidence/
Is the search for ET pie-in-the-sky fantasy?
http://www.futurity.org/science-technology/is-the-search-for-et-pie-in-the-sky-fantasy/
We Really Hope ET is Out There, But There’s Not Enough Scientific Evidence, Researchers Say
http://www.universetoday.com/94838/we-really-hope-et-is-out-there-but-theres-not-enough-scientific-evidence-researchers-say/
Princeton University researchers are [speculating] on the [speculation] that astrobiologists and other scientists [speculate] to one day find life on other planets. Recent discoveries [...] have sparked [speculation] about the possibility of also finding Earth-like life on those worlds, but the [speculation] that life - from bacteria to sentient beings - has or will develop on other planets as on Earth might be based more on [speculation].
Look where all this talking got us, baby.
Because if life doesn't look like us, there's no point in finding it. Seriously, do you want to have a hot makeout session with a 5-limbed cross between a cockroach and a slime mold from Rigel 7 No, of COURSE you don't.
You'd much rather do a little heavy petting with a light-green hottie with blonde hair and 4 boobs from Proxima Centauri. If Star Trek (and the Secret Service) have taught us anything, it's that getting it on with hot chicks in other places is pretty much the only reason to explore.
Which means nothing. The primary focus of the argument was more specifically the fact that just because life here started so quickly doesn't mean its a good expectation that life occurred as quickly anywhere life is supportable in the universe. Perhaps we were a statistical outlier and we had life appear far faster than the average. The fact is we just don't know, but because we don't know we can't make the assumption that life is on every earth-like planet.
It's statistical probability, you Philistine!
"The researchers used a Bayesian analysis—which weighs how much of a scientific conclusion stems from actual data and how much comes from the prior assumptions of the scientist—to determine the probability of extraterrestrial life once the influence of these presumptions is minimized."
Source
Which amounts to, "my filter hasn't found any papers on extra-terrestrial life we've found yet, so clearly no evidence of extra-terrestrial life exists." I don't need a Bayesian filter to figure that one out, and it's actually pretty stupid to use one. We already know that we haven't found any life outside the Earth.
That said, the existence of life on Earth is all the evidence you need for life elsewhere. The chance of life arising is bigger than zero, and the amount of planets is large enough that for anything with probability not zero, it's going to happen more than once. The only valid question is just how full of life is the universe? Is it mostly lifeless or chock-full of it?
Reading the bible, it's clear that God is deeply insecure and has about the emotional maturity of a two year old right through the old testament. In the new testament he gets laid and turns into a hippy.
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
There is no support either for or against the existence of life on other planets. Bayesian analysis doesn't transform that lack of knowledge into evidence against life. After Bayesian analysis, people still don't have any facts.
However, I'd say things certainly look better now than they did a few decades ago, given that we have discovered both vast amounts of organic molecules in space, as well as lots of planets in the Goldilocks zone.