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Committee Offers Scenarios for Japan's Energy Future
ananyo writes with a story about more concrete plans for a reduced or nuclear-free energy future for Japan. From the article: "It's official: nuclear power will have a much smaller role in Japan's energy future than was once thought. Since the meltdowns and gas explosions at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in March 2011, all of Japan's remaining reactors have been shut down for inspections and maintenance. The government offered a glimpse of their future, and that of the country's nuclear power in general, when it published an outline of four ways to satisfy Japan's future energy demands. One scenario recommends using a market mechanism to determine the nuclear contribution. Under the other three, nuclear power would supply at most one-quarter of Japan's energy by 2030 — and in one case, none at all. The scenarios come from a 25-person advisory committee to the industry ministry. The sharp reductions in the nuclear power part of the country's energy mix mean that Japan will struggle to reach the 31% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions that it had planned by 2030 (PDF)."
1) Reduced nuclear
2) Reduced coal, oil, and natural gas
Any third option for the foreseeable future is a hippie pipe dream (unless you count regular, sustained blackouts as an option). And if anyone thinks that solar panels and wind turbines are going to supply Tokyo with even a fraction of its power needs, you've obviously never been there.
What political party do you join when you don't like Bible-thumpers *or* hippies?
So in other words Japan will make nuclear power taboo so there will be little research/upkeep on the remaining reactors making another Fukishima more likely. Wonderful!
Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
Add in some large scale wind farms along the coast.
If they passed a law saying that individuals had to create 30% of their power using green methods, or buy into a green energy co-op that would pool the money to purchase large systems, it would work.
They also have to build more efficiency into their designs, use geothermal cooling, and energy efficient lighting. Also reduce the amount of stuff they have running when no one is home.
This is an excellent opportunity for Toshiba to seize the moment and take nuclear power generation in a whole new direction.
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
They haven't built a new reactor in a very long time. This announcement is not much different to the German government one - letting the existing plants run down and not putting in a huge amount of capital to revive an almost abandoned reactor construction industry to build new ones. Everyone involved in building the previous ones has long moved on and spare expertise outside of their country is scarce.
Since you don't want your Uranium anymore, please send it over here so the U.S. can build more carbon-free power plants. Otherwise, how will we power all of the Japanese-made electronics that you so graciously sell us?
sudo make me a sandwich
Any third option for the foreseeable future is a hippie pipe dream
I don't get it, all the free market preachers are promising that my energy problems will shortly be solved by the free market but your view is such a fatalistic-don't-even-try-jaded response that you seem to doubt the free market can provide.
And if anyone thinks that solar panels and wind turbines are going to supply Tokyo with even a fraction of its power needs, you've obviously never been there.
I haven't been there. But no one's asking those solutions to go from zero to powering Tokyo over night. Look how gradually it's taken wind power to start in the United States (current numbers here). Japan is comparable at our state level and is looking at connecting with Korea, China, Russia and Mongolia power grids to buy more renewable energy. So why call these hippie pipe dreams? If these are hippie pipe dreams, when will our innovation kick in and 'save us' from nuclear and coal?
(unless you count regular, sustained blackouts as an option)
Did you hear that Japan did actually make small adjustments following Fukushima and called the movement setsuden?
I don't think the situation is as dire as you describe it and, frankly, dismissing all the alternative efforts really undermines what we should be working toward which are transitional phases until some breakthrough comes in fusion or an unforeseen source.
My work here is dung.
"struggle to meet their emissions targets."
I think they misspelled the word struggle, it should be spelt FAIL.
Because coal is so much safer!
Years ago when I live in Japan I remember it being extremely hot. The sun would bake down and roast the street at 7am. If every house had to have panels on it's roof by law, would that help? Cover the whole place. Put it on sides of buildings.
they do the future there quite well. Now that there is a need I can see them being first.
We need nuclear power generator technology that can be safely run by corrupt liars. Most government and regulatory agencies are run by corrupt liars, as we saw in the handling of the Fukushima crisis.
Cars are clearly too dangerous. We need to all go back to walking by 2030. Heavy Goods Vehicles will be replaced by the horse and cart.
As for space exploration, forget that. The proportion of deaths to space flights is incredibly high so clearly we need to give up on that.
In fact, let's all just go back to living in caves and wearing animal skins.
Instead of stating your gut instinct as if it were fact, why don't you figure out mathematically if Japan has the geothermal energy to cleanly power their entire nation. Geo thermal is cheap and easy and Fuji-sama is a volcano, ã?
Iceland makes over 25% of their power from geothermal sources and is on track to cut over to 100% in the "forseeable future" as you put it. Japan has far more manpower and technological ability than Iceland, and the exact same equipment that is used to exploit a boiling water reactor can be used to exploit a geothermal resource. It's just heat, and the same antique technology that is used for nukes works for any other sort of hot rocks with little modification.
Look nuclear could lead to bad scenarios, but civilization destroying climate change is the Worst Possible Thing. Why not spend the money to build them better? They knew beforehand that their older gen nukes were vulnerable. It has to be at least one option. It's great that there are super incentivized to find sustainable alternatives but is incentive what is lacking on the part of researchers or is it now time we're running out of ?
Systematically lower carbon emissions- at the point of gun if necessary. Full throttle research into green technology - using deficit spending if necessary. Conservation and maximum usage of current alternatives , by law if necessary. That's what's got to happen and it will the only question is will we do it in time?
Do the math. 40% of of the energy for 0.25% of the population means 0.1% of the total energy use of Japan if Japan used as much geothermal as Iceland.
No, Japan doesn't have enough geothermal.
Geothermal energy is an extremely limited resource, even though most people claim otherwise. New Zealand had to scale down several geothermal powerstations because they took too much heat from the reservoirs. Japan has about 30 times as many people as New Zealand. And New Zealand (itself the place of the largest volcanic eruption of the last 2500 years or so) only gets 10% of its energy from geothermal.
If you want to replace just Fukushima Daiichi with solar power, you'd have to blanket the whole evacuation zone with one huge solar power plant like that one. (Notice the incredible environmental friendliness of solar power in that place!). But in fact, you'll lose about half of that energy due to storage issues or inefficiency.
In order to replace all Japanese nuclear power plants with solar power, you need ten of those power plants - if you ignore storage losses.
I wonder if tsunami could be used for energy capture? Like, making extensive double (one on shore, other off the coast, keeping elevated sea water between them) hydropower dams which occasionally replenish when huge wave brings high water over the sea-ward wall.
wind requires such a large area
No land is needed for wind power. Japan is an island nation at a latitude that has plenty of trade winds. Wind turbines can be located at sea, where the wind is steadier and twice as strong as on land.
You would need something the size of a redwood tree to hold the average American right?
I only look human.
My mother is a halfling and my dad is an ogre, so that makes me an Ogreling
Their population will decline, reducing energy needs. At some point, when enough people are gone, they can go back to being an agrarian society and eliminate all forms of energy use other than biological. That includes the horrible, bird-killing windmills.
We need to have a diversified energy matrix. For example, America is using around 40% coal, and thankfully, that will be below 33% within 5 years. However, much of the replacement is Natural Gas. What is needed is for us to make coal/NG be around 33% MAX, with Nukes around 33% MAX and likewise, the various AE around 33%. By doing this, we can limit damage from any one area.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Nuclear, because nothing else is going to run places like Tokyo.
Start looking at the modern tech, I'm sure you will find your safe nuke tech because Japan has always been able to solve challenges.
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
While I certainly have some understanding of those that oppose nuclear power, I feel that it is a naive point of view.
1) If an accident happens in Russia, it's not really an accident, it's cutting corners.
2) 3 Mile Island didn't actually blow up and take out the east coast despite all the failings.
3) The Japanese reactors were improperly maintained, inspected, and their safety systems were not tested.
4) Modern reactor design is an order of magnitude more safe and produces far less waste than the old designs used in Japan.
Modern nuclear plants are the solution for today. We need to be retiring coal and other fossil fuel burning plants and get serious about developing other energy sources. Wind and Solar power is not realistic yet, but it can be if we continue to develop the technology.
Japan and other countries with access to oceans should develop tidal and wave electrical generation. The math says that there is a massive amount of energy available, we just need to develop the tech.
Japanese officials confronted with question wether people in Fukushima has the same rights as other people to protect themselves against radiation, and their surprising answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rVuGwc9dlhQ [youtube.com]
VIDEO: Fukushima children forced to drink radioactive milk at school:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Aq4JG9ULVNE [youtube.com]
Fukushima-get up to date on repressed news:
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/much-of-northern-japan-uninhabitable-due-to-nuclear-radiation [endoftheam...ndream.com]
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2011/media-2/fukushima-meltdown-caldicott-says-japan-may-become-uninhabitable-media-silent/ [independentaustralia.net]
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2011/06/10/japan-deal-radioactive-sewage-crisis-produce-cement-25231/ [alexanderhiggins.com]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/remember-fukushima-its-back [zerohedge.com]
Secret pacts to NOT check for radiation in imported goods and foods from Japan (made after Fukushima started melting down):
http://www.nuclear-news.net/2011/08/20/hillary-clintons-pact-with-japan-to-downplay-fukushima-radiation-risks/ [nuclear-news.net]
http://www.examiner.com/human-rights-in-national/radiating-americans-with-fukushima-rain-food-secret-clinton-pact [examiner.com]
Experts: Fukushima 'off-scale' lethal radiation level infers 100 millions dying:
http://www.examiner.com/human-rights-in-national/experts-fukushima-off-scale-lethal-radiation-level-100s-millions-deaths [examiner.com]
Independent measurements (uncalibrated, non-discriminatory - but shows no "need" for global mass-panic yet):
http://www.radiationnetwork.com/Message.htm [radiationnetwork.com]
Independent news (only ones still covering Fukushima):
http://www.fairewinds.com/ [fairewinds.com]
http://enenews.com/ [enenews.com]
Japanese government changing the "safe health standards" just moments after disaster struck. Now includes absurd amounts of radiation 20-30 times more than previously, which were already 2-10 times more than most Western countries'. The change document is of course provided, also with a "safe" limit of "plutonium and other ALPHA emitters". Plutonium! The most toxic substance known to life!
Raising the exposure limits were allegedly done to increase safety for citizens, something you'd expect in a Hitchcock movie..
"Becquerels" and Japan's changing "safety" standards for radiation in food and water
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc6FPIK1VaY [youtube.com]
"Detoxify or Die: Natural Radiation Protection Therapies for Coping With the Fallout of the Fukushima Nuclear Meltdown":
http://www.health-matrix.net/2011/03/19/detoxify-or-die-natural-radiation-protection-therapies-for-coping-with-the-fallout-of-the-fukushima-nuclear-meltdown/ [health-matrix.net]
Experiences after Chernobyl and the multitudes of diseases, chronic fatigue and lessened immune disorders inflicted upon Europeans, and how Fukushima can learn from history.
VIDEO: "Evacuate Children!" Rally & Demo in Koriyama City, Fukushima Pref. on Oct. 15, 2011"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=b6RAwEBxaa4 [youtube.com]
3) Reduced GDP
You can cut your power usage a lot by reducing a) manufacturing, transportation, and export of goods, and b) Construction of new buildings, structures(bridges, railroads, etc) and roads or renovations of old buildings, structures and roads.
Nobody has ever come up with a figure as low as 8GW before that I can find. I think you've got something fundamentally wrong with your assumptions.
In 1998 the Geothermal Research Society of Japan and AIST were estimating a maximum exploitable capacity of 23.4 GW - assuming a series of conventional power plants that resembled absolutely nothing like "installing pipes below the whole of the country".
It's always been difficult to develop geothermal power in Japan because of the Japanese reverence for the hot springs that occur in the vicinity of the most favorable sites, and because of the Japanese government's active discouragement of geothermal investment in favor of nuclear plant subsidies. Some of that is changing.
All the reputable research I can find inside 15 minutes indicates Japan should be able to replace around half their nuclear capacity with geothermal using off-the-shelf technology. That's without doing anything with hydrothermal vents or anything else particularly innovative, just using the same old creaky victorian steam technology that their obsolete nuclear plants use.
They can probably make up the rest by putting their entertainment centers on power strips and switching to LED lights. There's really no need for aging, poorly designed nuclear plants that cost more to clean up than they can ever earn selling power.
From what I gather from the media, Japan is rather overrun with monsters with tentacles and such.
Vote monkeys into Congress. They are cheaper and more trustworthy.
Cold Fusion / Low Energy Nuclear Reactions.
There are many companies moving towards commercialisation.
Both large system and small decentralised systems for homes.
Japan could lead the world and make a fast and rapid rollout of this technology, and bypass all the others and have close to free energy costs.