Intel Dismisses 'x86 Tax', Sees No Future For ARM
MrSeb writes "In an interview with ExtremeTech, Mike Bell — Intel's new mobile chief, previously of Apple and Palm — has completely dismissed the decades-old theory that x86 is less power efficient than ARM. 'There is nothing in the instruction set that is more or less energy efficient than any other instruction set,' Bell says. 'I see no data that supports the claims that ARM is more efficient.' The interview also covers Intel's inherent tech advantage over ARM and the foundries ('There are very few companies on Earth who have the capabilities we've talked about, and going forward I don't think anyone will be able to match us' Bell says), the age-old argument that Intel can't compete on price, and whether Apple will eventually move its iOS products from ARM to x86, just like it moved its Macs from Power to x86 in 2005."
You know, we had the same argument with RISC versus CISC architecture. And we know who lost that one. Badly. And the reason for that is because the bandwidth outside the processor, the I/O, is so damnably slow compared to what's possible on the die itself. That's why the data transfers to and from the CPU are only about 1/30th or less the speed at which the CPU runs internally. The only logical course of action is to do as much as you can on each byte of data coming off the bus as you can. Besides, look at Nvidia's GPU cores: They throw hundreds of cores onto the die, but it eats hundreds of watts as well. Massively parallel and simple instruction sets don't appear to translate into energy savings.
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What did you expect him to say... that an Intel product was not suitable for the mobile marketplace? That would have been career suicide for him. He is singing from the Intel songbook. Those songs may not be sung with what is best for the customer in mind.
Intel spent many years chasing performance with little thought of power draw.
Now they are putting all their engineering muscle into minimizing power requirements, while maintaining high performance.
I don't see any reason to think they won't succeed, and if they do, then ARM will end up a niche architecture.
Compounding this fact, ARM isn't that great of an architecture. It's got variable length instructions, not enough registers, microcoded instructions, and a horrible, horrible virtual memory architecture.
The big thing that ARM has is the licensing model. ARM will give you just about everything you need for a decent applications SOC. Processor, bus, and now even things like GPU and memory controllers. Sprinkle in your own companies' special sauce, and you have a great product. All they ask is for a little bit of royalty money for every chip you sell. And since everyone is using pretty much the same ARM core, the tools and "ecosystem" is pretty good.
But there's not much of an advantage to the architecture... the advantage is all in the business model, where everyone can license it on the cheap and make a unique product out of it.
And nowadays, the CPU is becoming less important. It's everything around it -- graphics, video, audio, imaging, telecommunications -- is what makes the difference.
-- Erich
Slashdot reader since 1997
ARM works because 1) it's good enough while being 2) cheap enough. As far as I know, ARM is getting license royalties in the pennies per chip or SoC core using their design. For how much better Intel can make their low power x86 CPUs, its going to have to compete with dozens of foundries churning out millions of ARM devices when it comes to pricing...and thats where I see Intel having a hard time.
From Intel: Work done per watt
From ARM: System power draw small enough for handheld & long battery life
A year or two ago, I read a study that the most ops/watt were still done by high-end Intel processors sucking tons of power each. They did so much work so fast that the per-watt work done was still beyond the tiny-power-sipping ARMs that were relatively slow but still quite capable. Has this changed in the last generation or two of CPUs?
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They don't have all the legacy instruction set issues to deal with. Intel must be backward compatible with all previous versions. Remember, the 8080 subset is still alive and well in the INTEL architecture. This comes with a cost.
It's easier to move up from a lower power system to a higher power system. In this context power can be thought of as both electrical power consumption and as compute power. Moving down means something must be simplified/eliminated, and the backwards compatibility issues makes this much harder.
When it comes to mobile devices, ARM owns the market and has the network effect working for it. This is how INTEL kept a stranglehold on the PC market, but it works against them for mobile.
ARM is not monolithic in the same way as INTEL. Because of the license based IP model, there are many more variations of ARM chips then INTEL chips. The resources to make variations comes from the IP user base, not from ARM. A single company, no matter how dominant, cannot afford to support that many variants. If some of the versions fail, the cost is not born by ARM. If INTEL guesses wrong and makes a dud, they have to absorb the cost.
INTEL is no pushover, but I think ARM has the advantage.
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