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No Bomb Powerful Enough To Destroy an On-Rushing Asteroid, Sorry Bruce Willis

coondoggie writes "Maybe it's the doom predictions about the end of the Mayan calendar this year, or maybe these guys are obsessed with old Bruce Willis movies. Either way a class of physics students from the University of Leicester decided to evaluate whether or not the premise of Willis' 1998 'Armageddon' movie — where a group of oil drillers is sent by NASA to detonate nuclear devices on an asteroid that threatens to destroy Earth — could actually happen. The students found it would take a bomb about a billion times stronger than the biggest bomb ever detonated on Earth."

39 of 352 comments (clear)

  1. What do you mean OLD Bruce Willis movies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Armagedon is not that old at all.. uhmm.. ohmm...

    Fuck, get of my lawn

    1. Re:What do you mean OLD Bruce Willis movies by mwvdlee · · Score: 5, Funny

      Fuck, get of my lawn

      You want them to do both at the same time?
      I'll assume the preferred order is in the order written.

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  2. Quoth North Korea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    We have a bomb that big! OoooOOOOOooh!

    1. Re:Quoth North Korea by omnichad · · Score: 4, Funny

      Funny, I thought you were quoting Hollywood. Perhaps The Happening? One of the biggest bombs I've seen in a long time...

  3. not about destroying by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    is it me or did the class get it wrong, it was never about destroying an asteroid, it was about splitting it up in pieces or nudging it out of the earth direction

    1. Re:not about destroying by ArcherB · · Score: 4, Interesting

      is it me or did the class get it wrong, it was never about destroying an asteroid, it was about splitting it up in pieces or nudging it out of the earth direction

      Exactly what I was thinking: Define "destroy". Do they mean completely vaporize or just something that will do the job?

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    2. Re:not about destroying by symes · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Indeed. A small nudge, if applied when the asteroid is still some distance from Earth, could have a considerable impact on it's trajectory. That would make an interesting project, simulating the relationship between time to asteroid, payload, asteroid mass and what not to determine how quickly we would need to react.

    3. Re:not about destroying by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Also why not do a case study for thresholds where the bomb might be useful. An asteroid that threatens the planet may not be stopped, but something that could wipe out a metropolitan area and cause trillions of dollars of damage might be a size that could be. An asteroid on that scale may do less or no damage if it could be broken into small enough pieces before it hits the atmosphere.

      Also anyone remember that Deep Impact mission with the copper slug slammed into an asteroid some years back? That inert chunk of metal also happened to be very close to the volume and mass of a common nuclear warhead in the U.S. arsenal. (Looking at those numbers, it doesn't appear too random.) It seems somebody was seriously considering the idea.

    4. Re:not about destroying by mosb1000 · · Score: 5, Informative

      If you'd read the article, you'd know that the calculation was to determine how powerful the explosion would need to be to split the asteroid in half so that the two pieces would pass by the earth. Basically, the same thing that was done in the movie. Only, in their calculation, the explosion occurred when the asteroid was still 8 billion miles away.

    5. Re:not about destroying by arth1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Indeed drilling a hole to the center of the asteroid and blowing it from inside is inefficient and stupid. The best way would be to aply force to the side of the asteroid, so its trajectory would change to non-coliding with earth.

      I'd think that for a small body, the two are the same. A reason for drilling a deep hole first would be to get a much more precise vector for pushing the asteroid.
      Sure, you lose a lot of energy that way, but you lose an awful lot with a surface blast too, where more than half the blast force won't hit the asteroid at all. There's no way of making a nuclear explosion into a shaped charge without using the environment to shape it.

    6. Re:not about destroying by hazem · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Arthur C. Clarke's book, "The Hammer of God" was about this exact topic. It featured all kinds of neat furistic technology, like making a huge detonation in the solar system to emit a huge burst of EM radiation to find dark asteroids, and trying to put a mass driver on an asteroid to nudge it off course. It also had a great depiction of a lunar marathon.

      All in all, I thought it was a pretty enjoyable read.

    7. Re:not about destroying by letherial · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That wouldnt be a good movie.

      Its either.
      A. Sir! we got a astroid that is going to hit earth with in 20 years.
                Good find private, now send up the ION maker and point at it for the next 15 years, that should move it away to safely pass by

      OR
      B. Sir we got a asteroid that will hit us in the next few months
                Good find private, we will nuke the bastard, but first we must make some realy cool ships, get a few heroes and they can go drill the hole in the asteroid and really get it good.

      A is good if it realy happens, B is good for the movie theater...

    8. Re:not about destroying by Rei · · Score: 5, Funny

      Exactly what I was thinking: Define "destroy". Do they mean completely vaporize or just something that will do the job?

      Yes, if only there was a way to know what the students meant, like, oh I don't know, reading the article?

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      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    9. Re:not about destroying by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      One of the simplest ways to slowly nudge an asteroid off course is simply to have your spacecraft hover near it, with its (low thrust/high ISP) jets askew (instead of pointing straight at the asteroid). You don't need to be physically attached to an asteroid to tow it; gravity can be your "cable".

      Another even slower but potentially even simpler way proposed to move an asteroid out of an intercept course is to "paint" it (basically, detonate one or more bombs of reflective dust) on particular locations and use the change in solar radiation pressure to do the work for you.

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    10. Re:not about destroying by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I assume everyone here has played around with the Earth Impact Effects Program?

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      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    11. Re:not about destroying by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You can imagine the standard assumption to be that an asteroid is very hard, and that an atomic bomb would mainly give it a good shove that does not break the integrity of the asteroid, and that the heat can be neglected.

      Compare instead an asteroid to be a loose snowball and the bomb to be mainly good at breaking it up and heating it.

      Except that asteroids are not loose snowballs. Even a nuke is too weak to break up anything larger than, say, half a kilometer into pieces - or rather, an point explosion is a rather inefficient way of using that amount of energy. And even if it somehow got split, its own gravity would hold it together.

      (This is, BTW, why the Death Star blowing up Alderaan into pieces in Star Wars is a load of crap - you can see rather solid pieces of matter flying away from the explosion, but the scale doesn't match. The kind of energy capable of instantly propelling a planet-sized load of matter at a few thousand kilometers per second by means of a central explosion with a shock wave would turn the whole thing into plasma instead. (I guess that mentioning that the whole cloud would be rather poor in visible spectrum is a minor bickering at this point.))

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    12. Re:not about destroying by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      But the asteroid will always be rotating a bit so painting won't help

      Yes, it will. The details of course depend on the particular asteroid, but even painting the entire surface white will alter its trajectory.

      Also, really, pretty much any method proposed for spacecraft acceleration would work for asteroids as well. Laser-pumped? Check. Solar sail? Check. Even some of the less commonly known ones like a magnetic field generator to repel the solar wind would work. It all depends on how big you're willing to go and how quickly you need to move the thing.

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    13. Re:not about destroying by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly what I was thinking: Define "destroy". Do they mean completely vaporize or just something that will do the job?

      What they mean is "break an asteroid the size of Ceres into two pieces, both of which would miss the planet, assuming the asteroid (the size of Ceres) were only noticed heading towards Earth at about the time the guys in the movie noticed it".

      And while it is no doubt true that it would take that much energy to break Ceres in half if it were that far away, this says nothing at all about more, shall we say, "realistic" scenarios involving asteroids small enough to actually get that close before we notice them.

      Or for that matter, asteroids that big as far away as we'd notice them....

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    14. Re:not about destroying by newslash.formatblows · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I thought it was funny in the movie that they had two huge pieces practically grazing the Earth. For a real asteroid that could still be undetected (few km in diameter), that would be fine. For one "the size of Texas" and so solid that it could break drill bits left and right, the tidal forces when it came that close would probably mean high tide in Denver.

    15. Re:not about destroying by foniksonik · · Score: 4, Funny

      Don't you mean:

      "Siri, we got an asteroid that will hit us!"

      "I'm sorry, I didn't quite get that. Would you like me to search the web?"

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    16. Re:not about destroying by camperdave · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Not to mention killing off a great deal of the oceanic plankton, the chief source of oxygen for the planet.

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  4. how they did it by phantomfive · · Score: 5, Informative
    I'm not sure why this is news, but here's what they calculated:

    The students devised a formula to find the total amount of kinetic energy needed in relation to the volume of the asteroid pieces, their density, the clearance radius (which was taken as the radius of Earth plus 400 miles), the asteroid's pre-detonation velocity, and its distance from Earth at the point of detonation. Using the measurements and properties of the asteroid as stated in the film, the formula revealed that 800 trillion terajoules of energy would be required to split the asteroid in two with both pieces clearing the planet. However, the total energy output of Big Ivan "only comes to 418,000 terajoules. The asteroid is approximated as a spherical object 1000km in diameter

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    1. Re:how they did it by subreality · · Score: 5, Informative

      The biggest that the US ever actually popped was Castle Bravo. Design yield: 4-6Mt. Actual yield: 15Mt, resulting in the dry bit of island it was sitting on turning into a deep spot in the reef and destruction of the monitoring equipment two islands over, not to mention dropping fallout all over the local civilians. Oops. The Castle-* designs were weaponized into the Mk-17/Mk-21/Mk-24 with a 5-15 Mt range.

      The biggest the US ever deployed was the B41, at a perfectly practical 25Mt.

      Yields peaked in the 60s because the complete assemblies were huge and if you could only cart around one bomb on your plane or missile, it might as well be a big one. Since then the trend in big bombs has been toward the 0.5-1 Mt range, like the B83. The reason doesn't really have much to do with "arsenal reduction"; the real story is they figured out how to shrink midsize ones down to a much smaller package, and it's simply more efficient (more stuff blown up per kg of plutonium) to drop a half dozen 1Mt bombs in a pattern than to drop a single 25Mt one and having most of the energy end up in a stratosphere-bumping mushroom cloud.

      Of course that Soviet triple-stage monster takes the cake. There's simply no possible use for a larger one, even as a national dick waving status symbol. 50Mt is basically the most you can ever drop from a plane and live to tell about it, and you HAVE to drop it from a plane because a ground burst would create stupid amounts of fallout while not even being that impressive (air bursts work better); and no one's going to bother building a missile big enough to carry a 27,000 Kg firework just to show off. I hope.

      So now you know, and knowing is how we get the next generation interested in one upmanship.

  5. Re:Bruce still has a shot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    The biggest one ever detonated, the so called "Tsar Bomba", was 50 megatons of TNT. It could have been made 100 MT, but was scaled back to reduce fallout, and was therefore a very clean bomb for its size.
    There was however no point in building bombs of this size, so no one has attempted it since, opting instead for clusters of smaller bombs to carpet an area or using modern targeting to accurately take out small targets with great precision,
    Bombs that big where shere lunacy and just a demonstration of power.

  6. Obligatory Chuck Norris comment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Forget Bruce Willis, you just have to land Chuck Norris up there and have him stomp his foot once.

  7. Don't forget who directed the movie by bjdevil66 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Plot points based in hard science aren't exactly Michael Bay's MO...

    1. Re:Don't forget who directed the movie by robthebloke · · Score: 4, Funny

      Plot points aren't exactly Michael Bay's MO...

      FTFY

  8. For those who don't RTFA. by Bongoots · · Score: 5, Informative

    This is the real paper, coming in at only 2 pages it's a light read: https://physics.le.ac.uk/journals/index.php/pst/article/viewFile/390/243

    You weren't going to RTFA anyway, now were you?..
    --

    P1_1 Could Bruce Willis Save the World?
    Back A, Brown G, Hall B and Turner S
    Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, LE1 7RH.
    November 1st, 2011

    Abstract
    The film Armageddon (1998) puts forward the possibility of using a nuclear weapon buried deep within an Earth-bound asteroid to split the asteroid in two, each half clearing opposite sides of the Earth with only relatively minor damage. This article investigates the feasibility of such a plan and shows that even using the largest nuclear weapon made to date, the bomb comes over 9 orders of magnitude short of the yield required.

    [...]

  9. Re:Nothing new by tftp · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You drill a hole in the asteroid and insert a nuclear device. Do not seal the hole. Explode the device. You get a volcano. Asteroid's material becomes the reaction mass (largely gases and small rocks.) Relatively small mass * relatively high speed = decent momentum. Repeat until satisfied. Call this project "Noiro."

  10. No worries! by EzInKy · · Score: 3, Funny

    Everyone knows that in such an event Sam will open a hyperspace window and the asteroid will fall right through.

    "You know, you blow up one sun and suddenly everyone expects you to walk on water."
              Lt. Col. Samanth Carter

    --
    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  11. Not a good idea at all by Kupfernigk · · Score: 4, Informative

    The last thing you want is lots of pieces - there's something called gravity which would cause them to re-agglutinate on the rest of the journey. Breaking up an asteroid takes far more energy than deflection, as should be obvious-despite the current illiteracy, it takes far less energy to brake a car than it does to break it up. Of course Hollywood wouldn't want deflection because there's nothing to see on screen - but deflecting it into a safe orbit would be much safer because you only have to predict the track of one object, not millions of small ones with different trajectories.

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  12. Re:Bruce still has a shot by Tore+S+B · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Actually, there was a real, sensible (as things go in the field of nuclear deterrent) reason for them: The USSR did not at the time have anything that could deliver a payload with precision. Plus, they used big and slow bombers, which made it possible to intercept them. Thus, they employed a lesson from Ken Thompson in the future: "When in doubt, use brute force". :)

    The design was not scaled down as such - it was a 100MT bomb; they simply substituted lead for U-238 in the tamper.

    --
    toresbe
  13. New Bomb Powerful Enough... , Says Bruce Willis by Fusselwurm · · Score: 3, Funny

    ... or so I misread the headline at first glance.

  14. Easy answer - bomb contained a black hole by dbIII · · Score: 4, Interesting

    How else can you explain the time dilation of the painfully drawn out scene while the timer is ticking down and the audience is screaming "it's been minutes and supposed to be seconds - just die!".
    Either than or about the fiftieth continuity or stupidly ignored fact failure of the movie.
    There were Highlander sequals that made more sense - even the one where the sword changed from claymore to katana and back again in the middle of a fight.

  15. Re:A billion times. by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

    We have those!

    Very doubtful. But we could potentially build such a bomb if the Earth depended on it for some reason; the Teller-Ulam configuration scales indefinitely. The problem is it'd be way too massive to get off the ground.

    Of course, these students were simply calculating the (very unrealistic) scenario found in the movie, of the asteroid right about to impact, and of deflection involving splitting it in half and having one half go each way around the Earth. As they note, more realistic deflection scenarios involve hitting it much earlier and simply trying to alter it's trajectory intact (but that's not fitting for Hollywood)

    Also it should be noted that the Tsar Bomba mentioned in the article was deliberately cut down to half of its design yield (replacing the uranium tamper with a lead one) to make it burn cleaner. It was not only the biggest atomic bomb ever detonated on Earth, but also the cleanest per unit of energy output.

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  16. Re:1000 KM? by tp1024 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Even worse: There are no asteroids with a diameter of 1000km. The largest of them, Ceres, is 950km and at a very safe distance in a very stable orbit. The second largest, Vesta, is less than 600km in diameter.

    In fact, the main "danger" nowadays is seen in objects of about 0.1km in diameter, since that is the size at which asteroids are still damaging, but also escape early detection. That takes about 15 orders of magnitude off the energy requirements. But at this point, you wouldn't even need a bomb. Just shoving a few tons of stuff at a few km/s in front of the asteroid is enough to tear it apart. (The kinetic energy of 1t of material at 2.8km/s is equivalent to 1t of TNT.)

  17. Re:A billion times. by hairyfeet · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yeah and Bruce Willis was in it too, it was called Hudson Hawk.

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  18. misplaced modifier by Hognoxious · · Score: 4, Funny

    You've got the brackets in the wrong place.

    It's not an old (Bruce Willis movie), it's an (old Bruce Willis) movie.

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  19. Re:Nothing new by Grishnakh · · Score: 4, Funny

    Or better yet, say that it's just too expensive to bother with, and do nothing. Engage in a public program of portraying any efforts to deflect the asteroid as "socialism". Call this project "Nero".