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Complex Systems Theorists Predict We're About One Year From Global Food Riots
pigrabbitbear writes with conjecture on what triggers global unrest. Quoting the article: "In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest."
No man is more than three square meals away from revolution.
In a 2011 paper ... explained why ... in 2008 and 2011
It's easy to make a model that correctly accounts for the past. Before I read the article, I was hoping that it was a model they created earlier, and just released last year. It wasn't. From the article:
We extrapolate these trends and identify a crossing point ... in 2012-2013
Not a lack of food. A lack of cheap food. When you spend a large percentage of your income on food, it matters more.
That the contemporary "Zombie" as portrayed in movies, at the receiving end of a chainsaw or shotgun, looks and acts very much like a hungry person would?
Sometimes I wonder if that's just a co-incidence or by design... After all, there's not much difference between a starving person calling out "Brains" and "Grains" is there?
And when I do wonder that, I really, really hope it's by co-incidence.
GrpA
Enjoy science fiction? "Turing Evolved" - AI, Mecha, Androids and rail-gun battles. What more could you want?
A lame one at that. *Real* civ players get money from cities . . . by pillaging them. :P
I read TFA and all I got was this lousy cookie
Last I knew, those "experts" were pretty much on target -- vast swathes of humanity have been starving to death since there were vast swathes of humanity.
Which makes such a prediction pretty useless. What those experts are predicting is a massive uptick in starvation rates. And yes, they have been consistently wrong. In modern times, there has never been a global, sustained, starvation die-off in the vein of a Malthusian Catastrophe.
Malthus totally got it right except for two developments he couldn't foresee.
In other words, he got it wrong.
The second factor (effective birth control) is the only reason you can remain ignorant enough to call Malthus wrong.
It's more than just birth control; it's a whole slew of factors that contribute to demographic transition. And yes, it's the primary reason Malthus was wrong. One of his fundamental assumptions was:
"That population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase"
Demographic transition has demonstrated that this is false. Human population growth is not limited solely by the availability of subsistence; it self-limits given the presence of other factors that tend to occur as prosperity increases.
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean there isn't an invisible demon about to eat your face
Eventually bad shit will happen. Eventually, someone might actually get a model that accurately predicts it. Dismissing this new research because someone years ago made the same predictions with simpler, inaccurate models is not a logically sound basis to dismiss new research. If there is something amiss with the new research, dismiss it on those grounds. That is skepticism. Dismissing based on the fact Malthus was wrong* is not sound.
*Malthus was only wrong about missing the Green Revolution. However, the amount of food extractable from any given acre cannot continue to increase forever. There is still an upper limit ahead.
I don't think they're wrong. I own about 500 acres of farmland that I rent out and this is something I've been watching the past couple years and something that a lot of the ag people have been warning about is the fact even the United States as of right now has less than a 90 day carry over (seems like I read something the other day that the supply had now dropped to something like 60 days). The carry over was 18 months in the 1950's. Frankly I find that a little scary.
That means that if there is a major disruption somewhere in the supply chain(oil supplies disrupted), another summer or two like this past one, or some major event like a large volcanic eruption on the scale of Krakatoa with global weather impact and the United States is 3 months away from having no food. This isn't the price becomes too high for people to afford, this is literally THERE IS NO FOOD. The physical supply doesn't exist. And that's kind of scary.
Let's just take this past summer. The United States produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. We'll be lucky to produce half that due to the weather this summer. That means globally about 20% of the global supply of corn this year is gone, it doesn't exist this year. Furthermore drought in Russia, Europe, and Australia means they aren't having bumper crops to offset that loss.
Short term that means people will likely turn to rice to replace corn as their staple. Rice prices aren't much changed from a year ago. (We raise Rice and Soybeans so that's what I primarily pay attention to). Soybean prices on the other hand are the highest I've seen it in my lifetime. And I remember early in the summer the commodity traders were assuming a near perfect yield this year in the prices of corn and soybeans, et. al. and that was *before* the drought. (I know, why those idiots were assuming that in the first place is another discussion)
What has surprised me is how little this gets reported in the main stream press. The only reason I know anything about it is the fact I own farms and read some of the ag publications so I have some idea of what is going on in that world.
"The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
My current net worth is about $600,000 and I have this in my basement. I'm pretty sure I don't have to worry.
Yes you do. Now we know we can raid your basement for food.
Even during the great depression food riots only rarely occurred and while there was civil unrest it was far from panic or massive
My great grandmother begs to differ enough that I had to give her THREE Swedish fish to calm her down. Downplaying the poverty and struggle of that era is a gross troll. People ate days old "bread" soaked in maple syrup, scooping off the mold. They rationed toilet paper because they COULDN'T AFFORD an extra roll, or they would starve. Pump your brakes, turn around, and go back the way you came.
"When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
In 2011, more corn was used in ethanol production than for livestock feed for the first time ever. Ethanol accounted for 5.05 billion bushels which at 56 pounds per bushel (shelled) comes to 141.4 million tons. Worldwide corn production in 2011 was 867.5 million tons. That's over 16% of the global corn crop used for ethanol production.
In fact, every major famine in the 20th Century was caused NOT by major crop failures, but by deliberate political policy or the effects of war.
Famous examples of this include the forced collectivization of farms in the Ukraine between 1928 and 1933, the time of the warlords in China during the 1920's and 1930's when fighting disrupted food supply, the effects of the the invasion of China by Japan (which also disrupted food supply), the "Great Leap Forward" in China that seriously affected food production, and the political policies of dictators in Africa during the second half of the 20th Century.
Libertarians have about as much interest in history as they do in economics, political science, sociology, anthropology, or pretty much any other body of knowledge. Their's is an imaginary utopia where temples are raised to the Unseen Hand Of The Unregulated Free Market, and the rich are free to enjoy their wealth unfettered by any necessity beyond purely voluntary noblesse oblige and the poor have won the freedom to starve without the horrible fear of the evils of state intervention to prevent their downward spiral, and the working classes are free to pick the master that they shall be wage slaves to, or if they choose, to join the poor and fight for the kindly alms of the rich.
The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
And with an 'L'!
(Don't you hate that?)
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
Wrong! You know why? Bill Gates, Richard Murdoch and Donald Trump on a grand scale eat about the same amout of food as you do. Also, even with food taken out of the equation if their net worth is somewhere in the realm of $3 billion and your net worth is something like 100,000, they're not buying 30,000 times as many taxable goods as you.
This is why income tax is a good thing.
Two years of freeze dried foods and Meals Ready to Eat and you will be rioting even with a full stomach.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
And starvation is one hell of a motivator.
Unfortunately starvation is not a motivator for the people who most influence the global economic system. Profit is the motivator.
The derivatives market is worth $800,000,000,000,000.00.
That's eight hundred trillion with a "T". It doesn't represent equity in any company, or commodity. It's not for business expansion or for building new factories or for putting new seed in the ground.
It's $800 trillion in real money that's used on a big monopoly board by extremely wealthy individuals and corporations. Remember, this is not the stock market, it is not shares in companies or bars of gold or bushels of corn. It's part of a big game of Texas Hold 'Em where if you lose, you send the bill to the taxpayers of some country or other.
It also happens to represent more than TEN TIMES the gross domestic products of all countries in the world. The derivatives market is worth several times that of the entire world. Possibly disruptive, no?
More than 3 BILLION people (50% of the world population, give or take) exist on less than $2/day.
There are about 1100 billionaires in the world and about 10 million millionaires (0.15%). About 25% of the world population is unemployed.
There is a whole lot of research that shows replicable, reliable correlation between growing wealth and income disparity and growth in every single negative metric of human society, from disease, to violence, to mental illness and back again. Not one bit of research that shows a positive effect of growing disparity of income and wealth.
In arguably the most prosperous of nations, the US, 40% of the population has a net worth of zero. The average person over 55 will retire with enough wealth to live for about 2.5 years. And much of the rest of the world only dreams about this kind of prosperity.
"Food riots?" Yah think? But just remember, it's not because there's not enough wealth to go around. You come up with a solution, because I'm going back down to the bunker.
You are welcome on my lawn.
Dr. Borlaug should be in every history book. He saved more human lives than, I think, anyone else. Ever. Possibly excepting Pasteur.
My current net worth is about $600,000 and I have this in my basement. I'm pretty sure I don't have to worry.
Yes you do. Now we know we can raid your basement for food.
I'm not sure why this was modded as funny because it's true.
The problem with being more prepared than your neighbors for a disaster is that when they get hungry and notice that you and your family are not, then they'll be busting down your door to take your food. No matter how well armed you are, if you have something worth stealing, there will always be someone better armed than you and enough desperate people with nothing left to lose to overwhelm your defenses.
WTF, Insightful?
Is it a rhetorical question, and are you really implying that we cannot do anything about global warming & peak oil in the short term?
On the top of my head, here are some stuff you could start *today* :
* turn your air conditioning off, or choose an higher set temperature
* eat less meat
* buy local and seasonal food
* take the bus, tram or bike to commute. If you have to take the car, bring a colleague with you
* don't buy any gadget that you would stop using after a few days/weeks
* don't plan to take the plane for your next holidays
* generally try to use less energy that your neighbor
* spread the word
There you go!
You forgot to mention that the growth rate is slowing, particularly as two certain countries (admittedly, slowly) uplift themselves, with the most common studies expecting a plateau to begin appearing around 10-11 billion.
No it doesnt help that 1/3 of american corn is diverted to ethanol (but thats another issue).
But the problem (as has been stated millions of times) isnt food production, its food distribution.
I love this page: http://flowingdata.com/2011/07/27/if-the-world-lived-in-a-single-city/
Houston is pretty spread out, ~3700 people per sq mile. that's ~5.7 people per acre.
Living in cities amplifies the food thing cause people aren't growing their own, and so are dependent on a few people to supply them. Thats called civilization and specialization and a buncha other things. But even so, it still comes down to distrubution. Ever work in a grocery? You see how much stuff we throw away due to rules about experiation and what not in a typical grocery store?
Again. Not a quantity problem, its a distribution problem.
So the doom and gloom? Not warranted.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.