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Solar Panel Breaks "Third of a Sun" Efficiency Barrier

Zothecula writes "Embattled photovoltaic solar power manufacturer Amonix announced on Tuesday that it has broken the solar module efficiency record, becoming the first manufacturer to convert more than a third of incoming light energy into electricity – a goal once branded 'one third of a sun' in a Department of Energy initiative. The Amonix module clocked an efficiency rating of 33.5 percent."

62 of 237 comments (clear)

  1. Additional Information by jmottram08 · · Score: 4, Informative

    According to wiki this happened in July. Also, for info, they have received over 180 million dollars in grants from the government, and closed their las vegas plant in order to "focus on international opportunities".

  2. Re:So confusing... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    From the article: "The solar module efficiency is the efficiency of the panel, and not the same as the efficiency of individual solar cells from which it's comprised. At the moment, solar cell efficiency can just exceed 43 percent for concentrated systems. It's the module efficiency, however, which reflects the amount of electricity a PV system can produce."

  3. Re:Margin of Error. by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

    Of course the test had a margin of error of 4%

    Does anyone have any confidence that the AC who wrote that statement knows what "margin of error" actually means?

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  4. Re:**YAWN** by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Call me when they get the price per KWh down to below non-renewable sources.

    If you include external costs, it's a lot closer than you think.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  5. Re:**YAWN** by NevarMore · · Score: 2

    If you include external costs, it's a lot closer than you think.

    Go on. Show me the mone...maths!

  6. Go ahead, build and sell it without subsidy by tp1024 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That's just about where the miracles stop reliably. You may or may not find some special cases in which those actually make sense (given that we're talking about concentrated solar and 2-axis drives are mandatory, those cases become even more special), but at large scale it's just not worth it - even without considering the need to store the energy, so you have it when you need it.

  7. yet another solar tech not available to the public by SuperBanana · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Every 6 months on Slashdot we read about higher efficiency solar panels. Virtually none of them are available on the market, and if they are, they're only available to large-scale commercial installations. Right now, the best you can do retail is about 20%; some panels are barely 10%.

    A condition for any prize should be "available in half-dozen quantities to individual purchasers."

    The best return on investment remains solar hot water - we're talking an order of magnitude in efficiency per area between common solar panels and evacuated-tube hot water collectors. We waste enormous amounts of energy heating hot water and heating homes...

    We'd also save billions of dollars if we stopped selling clothes dryers that are hideously inefficiency; elsewhere in the world condensing dryers are the norm and in some cases dry clothes faster.

  8. Concentrated solar is less efficient by ChumpusRex2003 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Unfortunately, this is a concentrated light solution. This means that the figures quoted for efficiency are in the presence of direct sunlight. However, this is only a proportion of energy generated from PV modules, hence the "efficacy" and therefore, total energy production, of concentrated solar solutions is less good than unconcentrated modules.

    The reason comes from diffuse sunlight - light that has been diffused by the atmosphere or by clouds. This typically accounts for 10% of module illumination in direct sunlight, and much higher in the presence of atmospheric haze/cloud; even in lightly overcast conditions, you can expect unconcentrated PV to yield approx 10-15% of direct illumination yield because of the diffuse illuminance.

    Diffuse light cannot be concentrated by optics, thus concentrated solar PV modules cannot utilise the diffuse light (more precisely, they can utilise it, but not concentrate it - thus if the system uses a 10:1 concentration, then the energy yield from diffuse illumination falls from 10-15% to 1-1.5%).

    A boost from 30 to 33% efficiency by switching to concentrating modules could be completely wiped out by the loss of diffuse yield, even in direct sunlight. In non-direct sunlight, hazy or cloudy conditions, the yield can be reduced much more severely; resulting in a net reduction in productivity, despite the higher nameplate efficiency.

    This technology is most suited to areas with the most intense direct illumination; e.g. dry areas, at low latitudes (where the role of diffuse light is diminished in proportion).

    1. Re:Concentrated solar is less efficient by BlackPignouf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      However, this is only a proportion of energy generated from PV modules, hence the "efficacy" and therefore, total energy production, of concentrated solar solutions is less good than unconcentrated modules.

      No. A 2-axis tracked CPV system with multi-junction cells will produce more with beam radiation than a 2-axis tracked monocrystalline PV system with global radiation, at least in the regions where CPV is installed (Spain, Israel, Arizona, ...).
      Sure, it won't work well in Norway.

      The reason comes from diffuse sunlight - light that has been diffused by the atmosphere or by clouds. This typically accounts for 10% of module illumination in direct sunlight, and much higher in the presence of atmospheric haze/cloud;

      Diffuse fraction never falls below 16%. Even a clear, deep blue sky still emits diffuse radiation.

      Diffuse light cannot be concentrated by optics, thus concentrated solar PV modules cannot utilise the diffuse light (more precisely, they can utilise it, but not concentrate it - thus if the system uses a 10:1 concentration, then the energy yield from diffuse illumination falls from 10-15% to 1-1.5%).

      True, but we're probably talking 500:1 concentration, here.

      A boost from 30 to 33% efficiency by switching to concentrating modules could be completely wiped out by the loss of diffuse yield, even in direct sunlight. In non-direct sunlight, hazy or cloudy conditions, the yield can be reduced much more severely; resulting in a net reduction in productivity, despite the higher nameplate efficiency.

      33% has been measured under 850W/m2 direct radiation (nominal operating conditions). Compared to 1000W/m2 global radiation (STC), you get 15% less.
      That's still about 28% of module efficiency. How many single-junction PV modules are there that deliver that much, even in laboratory? None.

      This technology is most suited to areas with the most intense direct illumination; e.g. dry areas, at low latitudes (where the role of diffuse light is diminished in proportion).

      You meant "high altitudes", right?

  9. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Yoda222 · · Score: 2

    Nuclear power plant are also difficult to build from stuff that you can find on the market, and they are only available to large-scale commercial installations.

  10. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Trepidity · · Score: 3, Interesting

    We'd also save billions of dollars if we stopped selling clothes dryers that are hideously inefficiency; elsewhere in the world condensing dryers are the norm and in some cases dry clothes faster.

    I think the prevalence of gas-powered dryers is a reason the U.S. still uses more inefficient dryers, because the fuel (natural gas) is fairly cheap, and much cheaper than with the electric-powered dryers that are prevalent in parts of Europe. So there's less economic incentive to improve efficiency.

  11. I'd do it tomorrow by rueger · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I never seriously looked at solar and other "off the grid" options until investigating a house on an island off Vancouver.

    It was new, purpose built, so had some obvious advantages, but what I took away from it was:
    • All electricity was from solar panels on the roof, with a small generator for backup when running things like power tools.
    • All water was from captured and filter/UVed rainwater.
    • Cooking and refrigeration was propane powered.
    • Woodstove for heating.

    Obviously location and climate matter, but at the end of the day it was a viable and practical option, and one that made economic sense as well.

    Sooner or later some bright government will figure out that by heavily subsidizing the installation of solar in homes they'll a) Develop a very viable industry b) drop solar costs due to volume c) get relected because everyone's electric bills will drop d) boost the economy because the money that was going to the electric company can be spent elsewhere. Now, I'm still a fan of hydroelectricity - if you need to generate electrical without generating CO2 and pollution, and without the no-nukes crowd at your door, there isn't a better way to go.

    1. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by sribe · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Sooner or later some bright government will figure out that by heavily subsidizing the installation of solar in homes...

      That's already being done all over the US--has been for years. Yet solar PV is still barely viable economically, even when the government pays 30-60% of the cost.

    2. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by gman003 · · Score: 2

      But in the further interests of fairness, this is more a feature of the reservoir than the hydro plant itself. So even non-power-producing reservoirs emit methane.

      Also, the methane emissions can be greatly reduced by clearing the area of trees and plant life before filling the reservoir. This brings it down to roughly the level of a natural lake.

    3. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Sooner or later some bright government will figure out that by heavily subsidizing the installation of solar in homes...

      That's already being done all over the US--has been for years. Yet solar PV is still barely viable economically, even when the government pays 30-60% of the cost.

      No, heavily subsidizing. Let's see if I've got the correct question. Where is Germany. That is correct, let's see how much they wagered. Germany leads in solar because they lead in subsidies. I have my own issues with subsidies but it seems to have worked in this case. In the US there's too many places and cases where you can't get the subsidy, many of which coincide with some of the best places for solar installations, almost like they intended it.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    4. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by AK+Marc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Anyhow, if there were any real market for alternative energy (especially Solar, as I live in the middle of Texas), my electric co-operative power company would already be using it.

      What if electric was a net gain (returns 5% on investment) but doesn't meet the minimum 10% ROI for the coop to implement it? What if the issue is that, if land and backhaul were free, it would be marketable, but a power company building a solar plant doesn't get free land and free infrastructure? You do. You've already bought the land your house is on, and paid for the infrastructure to that house, so the land and infrastructure are free. Just because someone can't make a profit on selling it doesn't mean it isn't worth doing. If every home in the US had panels on the roof, that would eliminate the peak summer loads, and would supply a surplus so that storage, rather than peak generation, would be the next problem to tackle. And the industrial sites would always use more than they can generate, so we'd end up where industrial sites would pay the power company, and the power company would pay millions of home owners.

    5. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by M.+Baranczak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A carbon tax, if done correctly, would be much better than subsidies. The problem is: a subsidy means that the govt gives some people money. A tax means that the govt takes some people's money. Which do you think is easier to get through Congress?

    6. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by sribe · · Score: 2

      Barely viable economically?

      Yes.

      You might want to look at how many houses are getting solar added every year. From experience I can tell you that it's thousands of homes per month and the pace is steadily increasing. When you consider solar on your home compared to the utility in your area over the next 20 years...

      Yes. Now, how many homeowners have you talked to after they've had PV for 5 years? Yep, like any other product you can buy, the sales pitch overstates the savings and understates maintenance. (Yes, PV does have maintenance, cells fail occasionally. Worse, many of the cheaper panels, especially the ones that big builders are using in new development, have the cells wired in series--no joke, one cell fails, the panel fails.)

    7. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by olden · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Germany leads in solar mostly because it's quick, easy, and therefore cheap, to get solar projects approved there. It's a nightmare in the US, at least the city where I live; I've been going through this for months: already dozens of pages of blueprints, specifications, calculations etc filed, thousands spent, and still no end in sight.
      http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddwoody/2012/07/05/cut-the-price-of-solar-in-half-by-cutting-red-tape/

    8. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by dfghjk · · Score: 2

      Your land and "infrastructure" aren't free just because you've already bought them and no one else's business plan matters when you do your own cost/benefit analysis.

      You have any numbers to back up your claims of energy surpluses?

      We can have surpluses simply by building too many generation plants. I don't see that as a benefit to anybody, nor do I see tackling the resulting storage problem as anything other than two wrongs making a right in your mind. Solar energy isn't free, so producing too much of it isn't a plus.

      If backfeeding the grid offered such potential, then there should be at least a few examples of people making significant money from their utility companies. Where are those? Where are the wise homeowners raking in the cash using their free land and infrastructure?

      It takes more than the fertile imagination of zealots to solve real problems.

    9. Re:I'd do it tomorrow by vandamme · · Score: 2

      In Germany, the cost (without subsidies) is about half what it is in the US, because of efficiencies (i.e., more competition, less middlemen) in the distribution channel. A large market makes this possible. Large subsidies prime the pump. Sooner or later, they (subsidies) will have to come down. Like Obama did with fossil fuel subsides, as proclaimed in his State of the Union address.

  12. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

    At this stage cost a more important factor than efficiency. We have vast amounts of unused space that could be covered in solar PV panels, but the fact that it takes years to recover the investment of thousands of Euros/Dollars is holding back adoption.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  13. Re:**YAWN** by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    For almost any new building it is worth covering the roof with solar PV. It might take 10-15 years to recover the cost, but then it is all profit. The savings are even bigger if you combine PV with solar heating. Installation is cheaper at the time of construction and the cost is a small fraction of the roof budget, let alone the cost of the whole building. If you are taking a mortgage then the cash from feed-in tariffs will more than cover the extra cost of the panels on your monthly payment.

    Note: Based in building in the UK, further south it makes even more sense.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  14. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Annirak · · Score: 5, Informative

    It looks like I can buy solar modules for a minimum cost of $1/Watt.

    Assume an energy cost of $0.1/kWh. Assume an average of 12 hours of sunlight per day and a 50% of maximum average intensity.
    $0.1/kWh * 1 year / 12 * 50% * 12 hours/24 hours = $0.01826

    The monthly value that a solar cell generates is $0.01826/watt month.

    Assume a yearly interest rate of 5% (monthly is 0.4074%)

    Since the cost of a solar cell is $1/watt, work out the number of months that a 1W solar cell must run for to generate $1.
    PV = A/i (1-1/(1+i)^n)
    PV = $1, A = $0.01826, i = 0.004074

    n = 62 months = 5.17 years

    The warranty on the reference cell is 10 years product workmanship, 25 years linear power.

    So the value of the cell over its 25-year life span is $3.15/watt, with a cost of $1/watt.

    This all neglects installation and grid-tie costs, but 50% average illumination per daylight-hour is conservative in most areas. Solar cells ARE worthwhile TODAY and WITHOUT government subsidies.

    Efficiencies in solar cells are irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the $/Watt.
    Reference Solar Cell: http://www.affordable-solar.com/store/solar-panels/CSI-CS6P-245P-245W-Solar-Panel-STD-Frame

  15. Re:**YAWN** by Newtonian_p · · Score: 2

    What is the "life expectancy" of PVs?

    --

    There are 2 kinds of people in this world: Those who write in decimal and those who don't

  16. Re:Margin of Error. by NEDHead · · Score: 5, Funny

    I'd say it is 80% certain that he does not, with 2 sigma confidence

  17. Re:AHWESOME by NEDHead · · Score: 5, Funny

    I am concerned about the long term effects of taking all that power from the Sun. How long before it starts to shine less, or doesn't keep us in orbit anymore. The whole idea of endangering the longevity of the Sun gives me shivers. Think of our children!

  18. Re:**YAWN** by starworks5 · · Score: 4, Informative

    typically 30 years with 80-90% of the original efficiency, less if you live in a hurricane / tornado prone region.

  19. Re:So confusing... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    If anyone reads the article carefully...

    They state in the article that individual cells can already reach 43% efficiency - which matches the top end of that chart.

    The overall efficiency of the PANEL (made up of many cells) is lower though. This 33% is the record for the efficiency of the PANEL as a whole, not for the individual cells.

  20. Re:**YAWN** by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Informative

    25 years for reasonable ones. Of course by the time they wear out you will be able to replace them cheaply as you already have the mounting hardware and electrical infrastructure.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  21. Re:Send it into space! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    Honestly, it'd probably be much easier just making a HUGE ass magnifying glass in space

    Magnifying glass? Are you insane? A thin silver-covered mylar mirror is much lighter than that.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  22. Re:**YAWN** by tsotha · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Concentrated cells tend to wear out much more quickly. They get much hotter, and junction heat is what determines the life of any semiconductor.

  23. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://ths.gardenweb.com/faq/lists/laundry/2004120958010854.html

    "All else being equal (i.e. not including household heating/cooling issues), condenser dryers are slightly less efficient than their vented counterparts, typically on the order of ~15%. The real design intent of condenser dryers isn't improved efficiency, but the simple fact that they don't require a vent duct, permitting easy installation most anywhere (ideal for apartment dwellers, etc). "

    A gas dryer is going to be much more energy efficient than an electric dryer considering that ALL the heat generated from the flame enters the tumbler. Typical power plants can only transmit up to ~40%% of the heat from their power source to the dryer heater coils.

    Min energy eff electric: 3.01 lb/kWh
    Min energy eff gas: 2.67 lb/kWh

    Electric is 12% more efficient at point of use

    Total heat efficiency including power generation:
    3.01 * 40% = 1.2
    2.67 * 100% = 2.67

    most efficient setup would be an external venting gas dryer in a unheated space like a basement or garage since you would not be adding load to an HVAC system.

  24. Re:**YAWN** by rs79 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Solar cells and silicone sealant share the same property: we have no idea how long they're good for.

    Originally silicone cement had a 3 year warranty. Then none failed and they made it 10. Now it's 30. I have aquariums that are forty years old that have just a microscopically thin lawyer of silicone holding hundreds of gallons of water in a glass box. We have no idea how long the stuff will last, it could be a hundred years or more for all we know.

    Solar panels started being deployed in the 70s. They all still work and were expected to give 10 years service. To be sure, efficiency diminishes over time, but that's a secondary consideration to the fact newer panels are much more efficient. Somebody can use those old panels though.

    --
    Need Mercedes parts ?
  25. Re:So confusing... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Why not cite NREL's official and current chart? http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg

    While they may have hit a new record for overall efficiency, any sort of concentrator photovoltaics require sun tracking, significantly increasing initial system and maintenance costs.

  26. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Annirak · · Score: 2

    It actually continues to work for you even after you leave. Adding renewable energy generation and high efficiency heating/cooling (geothermal) to your home increases your property value, which gives you the option to do the same again, or buy one with the work already done.

  27. Re:33.5% of nothing by slashmydots · · Score: 2

    I believe they're referring to total energy of the sunlight itself. I think sunlight is an average of like 2000W per square meter or something.

  28. Re:AHWESOME by edxwelch · · Score: 5, Funny

    This is true. They've used too much solar power and now in some parts of northern scandinavia there is darkness for 3 months of the year.

  29. Re:**YAWN** by realityimpaired · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Not really... the point he was making is that the energy is there to be collected, and once the system is installed the maintenance costs are negligible. Many solar installations don't need any maintenance at all beyond keeping the panels clean.

    The initial installation costs a lot of money (which is becoming less and less every year), but you can sell any extra electricity you produce back into the grid, and the reduction in your monthly electric bill should be significant enough to make it worth considering. In most cases, the reduction in your bill will be more than enough to cover the cost of the loan to have the panels installed in the first place, and in some cases you'll find yourself in a position where the power company is paying you each month.

  30. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Solandri · · Score: 3, Informative

    Assume an energy cost of $0.1/kWh. Assume an average of 12 hours of sunlight per day and a 50% of maximum average intensity.
    $0.1/kWh * 1 year / 12 * 50% * 12 hours/24 hours = $0.01826
    The monthly value that a solar cell generates is $0.01826/watt month.

    Average capacity factor for solar in the U.S. is about 0.145. That is, a 100 Watt nominal panel will on average generate 14.5 Watts throughout the year after factoring in everything - night, weather, angle of the sun, etc. In the desert Southwest it's about 0.18 (0.195 in extreme desert regions), but for the country overall it's about 0.145. The NREL assumes a capacity factor of 0.17 for PV installations in the U.S., which are predominantly in the desert Southwest.

    Your quick "12 hours a day, 50% max average" assumes a capacity factor of 0.25. Almost twice the actual value.

    Correct for this in the rest of your math and you get n = 120, or 10 years payback. That sounds about right as the test cases I've calculated usually wind up between 7 and 15 years.

  31. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Solandri · · Score: 2

    but I think the problem is that most people in the U.S. do not actually live in their homes for a long enough time. I've been here 13 years, but I've been looking to move for the past five or so

    This shouldn't really matter, as any unrealized value of the PV panels would presumably be recouped by increased resale price of the house.

    The hang-up is up-front costs. The average home in the U.S. uses 11,500 kWh in a year. So at a constant power draw that's 1311 Watts. Factor in PV solar's average capacity factor o 0.145 and that means you need 9050 Watts of nameplate capacity installed to (on average) zero out your electricity bill (in reality it's a bit less because peak electric prices are during the middle of the day when nobody's home but the panels are generating the most).

    If panels are $1/Watt, that's a $9k up-front cost the homeowner has to pay, plus several thousand more for installation, mounting, inverters and regulation, etc. That's simply out of the reach of most homeowners unless they can somehow roll it in with their mortgage.

  32. Re:33.5% of nothing by Turminder+Xuss · · Score: 2

    Most PV installations have some space restriction. A collector that harvests more energy per area will produce more watts per $ provided that the cost of manufacture doesn't rise by more than the increase in efficiency. Prototypes don't have that constraint. Moving from prototype to mass production deserves a prize of its own; fortunately the Phonecians invented just such a prize many years ago.

    --
    You seem to regard science as some kind of dodge... or hustle.
  33. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by amorsen · · Score: 2

    You are at least 5 years out of date with that information. Traditional condensing dryers are obsolete, modern ones use heat pumps and are vastly more efficient than vented dryers.

    --
    Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
  34. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    That's simply not true.

    I was looking to reduce my electricity usage, so I bought myself a decent clothes rack, and stopped using the dryer. But then I actually purchased a meter and measured the power usage of my dryer and calculated that it would take me five years to pay back the $50 I spent on the clothes rack. The amount of power the dryer used was utterly insignificant in the scheme of things. However, since then my dryer broke down, and I've never bothered to buy a new one, because the clothes rack does a good enough job. (It helps living somewhere with low humidity, and lots of sun).

    Maybe if you have a large family, and are running the dryer nearly every day then hanging the clothes out would make a difference, but otherwise you're probably better off looking for other places to save energy first.

  35. Re:**YAWN** by Your.Master · · Score: 2

    Is it clearly cheaper for you in terms of net present value over the long term, or just in absolute outlay of cash?

    I don't mean to imply that it's not, I'm just genuinely curious about your situation and if it still holds.

  36. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by phantomfive · · Score: 2

    (I suspect that 315% over 25-years is much smaller return than what you'd get from stock market growth).

    Stock market growth roughly matches GDP growth in the country. If you think the country's output is going to grow more than 315% in the next 25 years, then that's a good bet.

    Looking at the future from the way things stand right now, we're in for a rocky few years at least. It is not at all a sure bet that we will manage to get a 315% return over that period, and the stock market could drop more as baby boomers remove their money from the market. Plan accordingly.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  37. Re:**YAWN** by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Actually, while solar cells have an extremely long lifetime, solar modules are much more short lived. Many of the panels deployed in the 70s failed after only a few years. The main reason is that the electrical connections must survive thermal cycling. Thermal cycling also can cause delamination of materials (for example the front glass and the Si wafers). Once the module is damaged, corrosion can continue to further degrade the panel. Modern panels have more engineering to prevent module level failure, but it simply isn't practical to do accelerated testing of panels for more than ~25 yrs equivalent.

    Given that most of the failure is due to thermal cycling and CPV systems get significantly hotter each day, I would expect that designing CPV systems to last for 30+ years would be a difficult problem. At 500 suns and 40% cell efficiency, that's 30W/cm^2 that must be continuously passively dissipated.

  38. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by epyT-R · · Score: 2

    because western europe has a culture rife with insecurity and individual powerlessness. This breeds passive aggressive behavior such as this. Unfortunately this crap is breeding here in america too.

  39. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by NonUniqueNickname · · Score: 4, Informative

    Why guesstimate solar production? Use NREL's PVWatts application: http://gisatnrel.nrel.gov/PVWatts_Viewer/index.html
    Click on your city. Click 'send to pvwatts'. Enter the solar system size in kW (default is 4.0). Click calculate.
    Depends a great deal of where you live, of course, because energy prices and solar radiation vary quite a bit across the USA.

  40. Re:**YAWN** by ChrisMaple · · Score: 2

    I have aquariums that are forty years old that have just a microscopically thin lawyer of silicone holding hundreds of gallons of water in a glass box.

    That can't be true. Lawyers are made of 'poxy.

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  41. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by TClevenger · · Score: 2

    The hang-up is up-front costs. The average home in the U.S. uses 11,500 kWh in a year. So at a constant power draw that's 1311 Watts. Factor in PV solar's average capacity factor o 0.145 and that means you need 9050 Watts of nameplate capacity installed to (on average) zero out your electricity bill (in reality it's a bit less because peak electric prices are during the middle of the day when nobody's home but the panels are generating the most).

    In my region of California, residential electricity costs are tiered, with Tier 3 (starting at 418kWh/month, or about half of the average you stated above) breaking 24 cents per kWh, and continuing to Tier 5, still less than the monthly average usage you quoted, running over 32 cents per kWh.

    Any renewable energy system that can take kWh off the top of that stack will pay for itself in very short order around here.

  42. Current solar panels with microinverters $1000/$36 by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

    Okay so current panel I bought for $1080 with mounting appears to be producing about $3 of electricity per month. I'll get a $300 credit on my taxes this year.

    It's simple and I just plugged it into an out let and my "kilometer" shows it's producing power.

    But $700/$36 = 19 years.

    It will probably break before it reaches break even.

    However--- if electrical power doubles like it has since the 1980's (5 c/pkwh vs 10cpkwh)

    Then it would pay off it about 12 to 15 years.

    Solar isn't "there" yet.

    And the panel went up from $1080 to $1280 after I purchased it.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  43. Solar isn't "there" by YesIAmAScript · · Score: 3, Informative

    Maybe not for you.

    Most states have more expensive electricity than $0.10/kWh.

    Also, most people who have solar go on a time-of-use rate where they can sell back power in the day when electricity is worth more and then buy it back at night when it is cheaper.

    My array will pay back in about 9 years. Less with the tax rebate. And it cost less than $1280/panel installed even before rebates.

    When did you measure the panel? Even at $0.10/kWh it should make a little bit more power than that during the summer. My panels are making about 800Wh a day a piece right now and the days are very short at the moment. They make nearly double this much during the summer months.

    --
    http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
    1. Re:Solar isn't "there" by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

      okay ... so your panels are producing 1.6kwh vs my panel's 1kwh.

      So that's 16 cents a day instead of 10 cents per day. Or about $4.80 per panel per month instead of my $3.00 per panel. So $60 per year instead of $36 per year.

      You say your payoff is 9 years...

      $1280/60 = 21.3 years.
      using a little algebra
      $X/60 = 9.0 years or $540/60 = 7.0 years. Wow, if you seriously got your 1.6khw panels, installation, and inverter for $540 per panel that's a phenomenal deal. You can't get close to that for retail installations without a lot of tax payer money helping you out.

      And that assumes the money is interest free. If you took a loan out, then it was over $540 which means your payout is further in the future.

      Many states have much less expensive electricity than .10kWh.

      Indeed, I'm only paying .10/kWh because I wanted to lock the rate in for 3 years. If i was willing to settle for a 12 month lock in, the rate was .09kWh.

      If your system is using batteries, you'll need a new set of batteries in about 7 years and a new inverter not long after that... which also extends your payout.

      Solar is currently too expensive. It needs to drop to about 25% of the current retail price or get 75% tax grants in order to make sense.

      I'd certainly love to see 10% of our defense spending go into solar power at current prices, reducing dependency on foreign oil. And the consistent demand would probably result in lower prices sooner.

      I'm no against solar, it just doesn't make financial sense without massive tax subsidies.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  44. Re:Solar cells by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    Christ, I love it when people with zero actual experience with things dump on those things just because it makes them feel good.

    Materials price:
    Been dropping FAST for about three years.

    Install cost:
    What? You mean the cost of paying an installer? Or the cost of DIY? Neither is high.

    Batteries suck:
    "Batteries never die, they're always murdered". Mine are 22 years old and test the same as when new. Why? Because I don't try to fuck them like a big pile of lead-acid bitches.

    Motivation:
    WTF? Either you want to, or you have to, or you don't. I had to. And I wanted to. You? Guess not.

    Home built panels:
    Almost "why bother?", considering how inexpensive the commercial models have become.

    Hail:
    Are you fucking kidding me? Seriously? You do know regular commercial brands are warranted up to golf-ball sized hail? In one insurance claim, an entire RV was written-off due to tornado hail damage. The only thing salvageable? The PV array. It was undamaged.

    Listen, there's a whole World of shit I know nothing about. So, what I don't so is talk about that shit as if I'm a fucking expert on the subject. Because I'll just look like a cunt if I do. Give it a try.

  45. Re:Solar cells by babyrat · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Almost "why bother?", considering how inexpensive the commercial models have become.

    Even with gov't subsidies, you are looking at a 15 year ROI - you think that is why bother?

  46. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    OK, some more math

    http://www.topten.info/uploads/File/040_Rita_Werle_final_driers.pdf

    efficiency of heat pump condensing dryer
    best in market (according to report)
    0.23 kWh/kg = 8.15lb/kWh
    worst in market
    0.4 kWh/kg = 5.5lb/kWh
    Euro A grade requirement
    0.48 kWh/kg = 4.58lb/kWh

    efficiency of power generation facilities
    http://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/pdf/table5.3.pdf
    natural gas = 3412/8185=41.7%
    coal = 3412/10415=32.8% (roughly same as nuke plant)

    distribution losses
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS

    US=6%

    heat energy delivered to home
    natural gas = 41.7%*94%= 39.2%
    coal = 32.8%*94%=30.8%

    heat pump condensing dryer total efficiency based on power plant fuel source
    gas @ 8.15 = 3.19lb/kWh
    gas @ 5.5 = 2.16lb/kWh
    gas @ 4.58 = 1.8lb/kWh

    coal @ 8.15 = 2.51lb/kWh
    coal @ 5.5 = 1.69lb/kWh
    coal @ 4.58 = 1.41lb/kWh

    heat pump condensing dryer ranges in efficiency from 1.44-3.19lb/kWh

    http://aceee.org/files/proceedings/2010/data/papers/2206.pdf
    gas venting dryer ranges in efficiency from 2.67-3.02lb/kWh

    heat pump condensing dryers are marginally more efficient at the very high end with larger min/max range.

    from same aceee.org report...

    "Analysis by the UK Market Transformation Programme has reached a similar
    conclusion: “In the UK, gas-heated tumble driers offer a simple and relatively cheap way to dry
    laundry with a carbon efficiency that matches the more expensive and highly efficient
    electrically powered heat pump driers” [Market Transformation Programme, 2007].

    If the conventional natural gas dryer was further improved with modulating burner
    technology, it is expected it would be superior to a heat pump dryer on a CO2, source energy
    BTUs, and energy cost basis, while also offering faster drying times and a lower purchase price."

  47. Re:**YAWN** by dfghjk · · Score: 2

    But keeping the panels clean, and replacing them, IS a maintenance cost, as are the replacement of other electrical components and service due to occasional damage. Maintenance costs AREN'T zero and the product has a finite lifetime. There is no such thing as a price per watt of 0 unless you are willing to ignore some of your costs. There are fixed costs and recurring costs and while the recurring cost per watt is 0, the fixed costs are still prohibitive.

    Selling excess production back to grid isn't making anyone anything.

    Finally:

    "In most cases, the reduction in your bill will be more than enough to cover the cost of the loan to have the panels installed in the first place, and in some cases you'll find yourself in a position where the power company is paying you each month."

    That proves either your ignorance or your dishonesty, or both.

  48. Re:Solar cells by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "Batteries never die, they're always murdered".

    Ah ha ha ha, love that quote.

    At work (railway) we had a location drawing ~200mA that we had to move about 500 meters. Somewhere along the lines, nobody bothered to order a new power drop and the old one had to be removed to make room for something else. We were promised a power connection within a month, so we stuck up 80watts of solar and 100Ah of battery. Problem... the sun window is small (mountains, you win again!) and there's a lot of cloud cover at this location. Solution, 1000watt Honda suitcase generator (sweet little unit) filled up with gas on Monday and Thursday. The generator automatically shuts off once the fuel runs out (excellent feature really) some time when the batteries have (hopefully) enough juice to last till the next time the generator is started.

    2 months later with no power utility, we suspected it wasn't going to go as planned, and we didn't want to ruin our marvelous and expensive wet Ni-Cd batteries, so we swapped them out for 3 marine grade deep cycle lead acid batteries from the hardware store with a total of about 270Ah. That ought to do it.

    Yeah... not!

    Turns out, twice a week isn't enough to keep them full, the charger we had was only 10amp output with a horrible efficiency while power lifting (efficient and reliable at float, and designed to be powered by the grid), and the generator wouldn't run long enough to fill them up. I also suspect the equipment is drawing more current than we were told and nobody bothered measuring it.

    Your comment: "Batteries never die, they're always murdered" cracks me up. Basically twice every week we would run these batteries dry. I'm not talking down to 10 or 11Vdc, I'm talking 4Vdc. This piece of equipment was deemed to be unworthy of overtime, so if it failed Sunday some time, it would sit with a load on the batteries until Monday around 10:00 am. Apparently you're not supposed to do this?

    7 months in and this location is starting to fail every day and the generator needs to be re-filled almost constantly. We're also being promised a utility connection within a month....

    Boss comes in and gives us 300Ah of Ni-CD and 40amps of efficient chargers. He also tells us to take those consumer junk batteries to the trash (recycle), and that the power utility is for SURE getting us power before December (the pole and transformer are up now, so it's looking promising!)

    Incidentally... I found a warranty card (12 month replacement warranty) for one of the batteries. Co-worker figures no way the store will honour a warranty for us, but seeing as how the documentation nowhere mentions the name of the railway, I figure it's worth a shot. Wouldn't you know... the minimum wage clerk thinks it is hilarious how fast their diagnostic equipment failed the battery (I tested 7amp leakage current on my bench) and hands me a brand new 90Ah marine battery that is safely sitting on the shelf in my shed connected to a float charger waiting to come camping with me next summer. My co-worker and I now have a special drawer for battery warranty cards.

  49. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by pepty · · Score: 2

    PV = $1, A = $0.01826, i = 0.004074

    n = 62 months = 5.17 years

    The warranty on the reference cell is 10 years product workmanship, 25 years linear power.

    So the value of the cell over its 25-year life span is $3.15/watt, with a cost of $1/watt.

    This all neglects installation and grid-tie costs, but 50% average illumination per daylight-hour is conservative in most areas. Solar cells ARE worthwhile TODAY and WITHOUT government subsidies.

    Efficiencies in solar cells are irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the $/Watt.

    Efficiencies in solar cells are irrelevant - as long as they are constant. The 25 year linear power guarantee is that you will be at 80-90% of the rated power after 10 years, and 60-80% after 25 years. I don't think you will reach a value of $3/watt under those conditions; on the other hand investing that initial dollar at 5% will get you to at least $3.30 by year 25. If you're looking at it as a straight investment proposition I think you need to consider the subsidy vs installation/maintenance/degradations costs to see if you might break even vs putting it in a retirement account. If the new chemistries are more stable (doubtful) and cut installation costs (possible, if you only need to install half as many m^2 of panels) they could improve the balance.

  50. Re:Solar cells by skids · · Score: 2

    One has to account for the added value of having backup power during grid outages, and the increase in home resale value means you don't have to actually remain the owner for the entire period of the ROI to realize a gain. That, and your 15 year figure is ancient.

  51. Re:yet another solar tech not available to the pub by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

    Yes, solar makes a lot more sense at those prices.

    However $0.10 is on the high side for the U.S.

    You can get it for .09 in my state if you sign for 12 months instead of "locking in" a low rate for 36 months like i did.

    In many other states, you can get it under .09 if there is a dam anywhere near you.

    At $.25/kwh, $2.50 to $3.00 per day per panel average your payout period would be about a year.

    FWIW, I get a much better return by replacing lightbulbs with LED and CFL bulbs. CFL still suck so I prefer LED. Even at $20, an LED bulb pays for itself very quickly (under a year) at 6 hours per day. CFL's pay for themselves in about 4 months (compared to a similar incandescent). Key for me: Getting 3000 kelvin bulbs.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.