North Korea's Satellite Is Out of Control

send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by peter303 · 2012-12-12 12:40 · Score: 5, Funny

Its unclear if the new min-shuttle has offensive capabilities.

Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by ThatsMyNick · 2012-12-12 12:43 · Score: 4, Interesting

I hear it has the capability to capture satellites. This should a good time to test it and make it public.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by Culture20 · 2012-12-12 13:10 · Score: 5, Funny

The manic depressive ones are the most important to get under control.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by Guspaz · 2012-12-12 13:14 · Score: 4, Interesting

Assuming it's tumbling out of control, it has a predictable orbit and safe distance. Could they not maneuver the X-37B close to it with the main engine pointed towards the satellite (oriented in the direction opposite of the orbit), and fire the thruster, slowing down the satellite and hastening re-entry?
This is assuming the primary concern is that it shouldn't hit anything before re-entering, not the re-entry itself. After all, a random re-entry has incredibly low chances of doing any damage, while an in-orbit collision is pretty disastrous in terms of debris.
I would imagine that the X-37B would have to consume a great deal of fuel just to reach and match orbits with the satellite, if it were even possible.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by clj · 2012-12-12 13:16 · Score: 5, Informative

Neither the "mini-shuttle" nor the retired shuttles are in a position to reach the orbit of the NK satellite. It is in a sun-synchronous orbit, which means its orbital inclination is near-polar. The current OTV-3 (mission name of the so-called mini-shuttle) is in an orbit of around 40 degrees, which makes it incapable of reaching the NK satellite's inclination, and no space shuttle ever flew in a polar orbit and nor had any plans/capability to do so after the Challenger accident.
If I had a nickel for every time I've seen someone propose that two satellites get together in orbit when such a thing is practically impossible, I'd be hundreds of dollars richer...
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-12 13:53 · Score: 4, Insightful

you're assuming the purpose has always been to launch a satellite. if they were using this as a means of demonstrating their missile delivery capabilities, they view this as a great success.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by arglebargle_xiv · 2012-12-12 14:15 · Score: 4, Funny

Its unclear if the new min-shuttle has offensive capabilities.
Of course it has offensive capabilities. The only country known to not arm its spacegoing vessels is Finland.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by X0563511 · 2012-12-12 14:17 · Score: 5, Interesting

On the flip side, if you can't get a satellite to not die on the way up, what makes you think the nuke's systems will survive?

--
For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by mug+funky · 2012-12-12 15:05 · Score: 5, Funny

the space shuttle orbiter was armed in the sense that it had an arm.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by ridgecritter · 2012-12-12 16:37 · Score: 5

"No it is testing new ion engines that actually allow for decent orbital delta V."
Citation requested, please.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it by jonadab · 2012-12-12 21:57 · Score: 5, Insightful

This is North Korea we're talking about. The level of incompetence they have displayed, repeatedly and publicly, is difficult to overstate. Quite frankly, botching their first attempt at a satellite launch (something the Soviet Union got right on their first try in 1957) is small potatoes compared to some of their other attempted shenanigans.

Among other things, the tallest structure in the country (a would-be hotel in the capital) was started in 1987, was originally intended to be completed by mid 1989 for some locally important event or another, and at this time is still not ready for use. They're currently hoping to _partially_ open the still-incomplete building in 2013, although one wonders where they think they're going to find enough tourists to fill a hundred-story hotel, even if they do ever finish it.

(Lonely Planet's writeup of the country is interestingly clever, particularly the way it manages to put excessive positive spin on things and yet still not make the country sound like an even remotely interesting tourist destination. The only landmark attraction they specifically mention is a mountain, which they call "one of the most stunning sights in North Korea", although they do also claim that the capital city has "a few sites worth visiting".)

Nobody in the Dilbert comic strip has ever approached North Korea's level of incompetence.

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Cut that out, or I will ship you to Norilsk in a box.

Dear Leader's Satellite is So Advanced... by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-12 12:42 · Score: 5, Funny

...it can cover multiple orbital trajectories while imperialist pig Yankee capitalist satellites are only capable of a single orbit.

hmmm... by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-12 12:43 · Score: 5, Interesting

US launches secret space drone... NK satellite suddenly goes into an uncontrolled descent.

1 + 1 = ...

Re:hmmm... by stephanruby · 2012-12-12 13:50 · Score: 4, Funny

Thus far, the score is 1 to 0
Secret US Space Drone: 1 and Flying Korean Unicorn: 0.

How can this be? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-12 12:44 · Score: 5, Interesting

If you're in orbit, you're in orbit. If your orbit is too low then it's a decaying orbit but "tumbling out of control" is a bit of hyperbole from the press. It might be harder to predict the re-entry if the satellite is spinning and has no attitude control; maybe that's what they mean. I suppose it's possible that it could strike that atmosphere and bounce before re-entering, but will it bounce high enough to impact something in LEO? Details please. I bet this is a tempest in a teapot; not that I condone NK's actions or think they're particularly smart.

Re:How can this be? by tragedy · 2012-12-12 12:58 · Score: 5, Insightful

"tumbling out of control" is a bit of hyperbole from the press
I would have to say "the greatest danger is the threat of it colliding with another satellite, adding to the growing debris field around the earth" is another fine example of that hyperbole. I mean, it's probably technically true. The odds may be infinitesimal, but still higher than the odds of any other danger.
Re:How can this be? by edjs · 2012-12-12 13:36 · Score: 5, Interesting

The article is quoting "US officials" when describing it as tumbling. If the satellite is spinning around more than one axis, then tumbling is the appropriate description, and is strong evidence that it is not under control.
Re:How can this be? by SplashMyBandit · 2012-12-12 14:52 · Score: 4, Insightful

Tumbling out of control also means any directional antennae are useless. If you intend sending commands to the satellite though such an antenna then you might not be able to recover the ability to control the satellite.
The North Korean people aren't just hungry, they are starving en-masse. And the leadership is all into putting its tiny foreign earnings into dick swinging activities like this (achieving what Russia and the US did decades ago). The DPRK really is the most criminal and totalitarian regime out there.
Re:How can this be? by n3r0.m4dski11z · 2012-12-12 16:39 · Score: 5, Insightful

[you posit that its hyperbolic to say there is a risk of satellite collisions] "I mean, it's probably technically true The odds may be infinitesimal, but still higher than the odds of any other danger."
You must not have seen space junk 3d
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUZO5pW7-5U
http://www.space.com/14132-space-junk-3d-film-orbital-debris.html
Because in it, they discuss at length, and 3d model, the 2009 collision of Iridium 33 and Kosmos-2251. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_satellite_collision ) which most certainly did occur recently and definitely in our lifetimes.
Their thesis was that it will become more and more of a problem unless people start taking it seriously and not just writing it off as a one time fluke, as you are.

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Re:How can this be? by SplashMyBandit · 2012-12-12 20:50 · Score: 5, Interesting

Interesting. I heard that a Westerner who went through Pyongyang was surprised to see US flags *everywhere*. You see, the food aid extorted from the US comes in large sacks that have US flags stamped on them. When the food is used the sacks get re-purposed for lots of things, like makeshift materials (eg, awnings, window blinds etc). Hence, the North Korean certainly understand where the food is coming from. The official line might be continuous revolution and the evil West, but I doubt the West is hated more than their government (if it wasn't for ruthless armed guards the people would flee - that speaks volumes about what the people think about their 'Workers Paradise').

Re:It may not be stupidity by icebike · 2012-12-12 12:56 · Score: 5, Insightful

Or, it was designed to be a simple parabolic missile, but NK test firing a missile is banned by the UN, so they pack in enough fuel to get to orbit, any kind of orbit, and there was never a plan to make it a stable orbit nor were there thursters on board to do so. In other words, a missile test disguised as a orbital launch.

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Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.

Re:So what does the world do about it? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-12 13:00 · Score: 4, Funny

I could see several scenarios in which this leads to war with North Korea

Tom Clancy... is that you?

Re:Start betting on where it'll land? by crazyprogrammer · 2012-12-12 13:05 · Score: 4, Funny

is the taco bell target still in the pacific? Mir didn't hit it but I still want that free burrito!

--
"the fax machine is nothing but a waffle iron with a phone attached to it." - Grandpa Simpson

Re:Start betting on where it'll land? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-12 13:06 · Score: 5, Funny

I hope it lands back in North Korea so its citizens can get some return on their investment.

best post by hurfy · 2012-12-12 13:14 · Score: 4, Funny

from the article after someone makes a prediction of it crashing somewhere.

One of the follow-ups: " I predict it will crash into a Mayan temple in 9 days "

You guys have a tough bar to reach in comments this time :)

Re:So what does the world do about it? by Sasayaki · 2012-12-12 13:16 · Score: 4, Insightful

Just hold on a moment.

Okay, look. North Korea are not the world's nicest people from what we know, either to their southern neighbour or (far more commonly) their own people. Let's just get that out of the way right now.

But seriously. Seriously. "Takes them out"? A Korea War II would be extremely costly for the western world and over what? A satellite that, worst case, smashes into one of the US Military's satellites (say a GPS one, not one so secret they'd just go "WHAT SATELLITE, IT WAS A TRAINING EXERCISE"). Then the debris takes out a few other satellites, and the GPS network takes a hit, being down for a week or so.

That's in my mind the absolute worst case scenario, and it would be pretty bad. We use GPS for everything; the airlines would take a hit, the road toll would go up, some smart missiles and bombs would stop working.

And you want to fucking bomb them for this? It's clearly just an accident. Sure, criminal ineptitude possibly, but that's what sanctions are for.

There's no reason anyone should die over this even in the absolute worst case. Stop crying for war as your country plummets over the fiscal cliff of economic crisis. And, of course, you sound so confident you can win (protip: You didn't win last time).

Are you fucking insane? Or one of those hardcore American evangelical Christians whose line of thought goes:

God blesses America to do whatever the fuck we want. Skirmishes? Bah, bomb those Athe-commies back to nothing. It escalates to total war? It's Christians vs Atheistic Commies! God will bless us with victory. It escalates to nuclear war? Praise God, the end times are upon us! The rapture is here!

So I repeat my question. Are you fucking insane?

--
Check out my sci-fi book "Lacuna" at http://goo.gl/MVxX8

My apologies by pla · 2012-12-12 13:16 · Score: 4, Funny

Figures, Best Korea would launch a satellite with a bad attitude.

Pity, Japan's having pitching a fit over NK's poor angle of attack, but y'all just need to get over it - NK clearly has no inclination to just roll over and take it!

What goes around, comes around by BeerCat · 2012-12-12 13:23 · Score: 5, Interesting

In the original space race, when the Soviets launched a satellite, it was seen in the west as a proxy for an ICBM - the (correct) theory being, that a nation firing a sub-orbital rocket was "interesting", while a nation launching an orbital craft meant they could, potentially, hit "anywhere" (subject to orbital inclination and other similar factors)

Now that the Soviet Union has fallen, to be replaced by "friendly" (yeah, right) Russia, other nations can launch satellites with impunity (China, India etc). Most of them are, if not "friendly" to the west, are at least "not complete and utter fruitbats" (that's a technical term BTW).

North Korea (DPRK), though, is still transitioning from the "complete and utter fruitbat" of Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Un, so that, at this stage, it is hard to say whether the new Dear Leader's plans for satellites are peaceful or not.

Assumption 1: it is peaceful, so an out of control satellite is, as USA, Russia and several others have found out, merely an expensive mistake
Assumption 2: it is deliberately provocative, (we launch a satellite, so an ICBM is easier), so an out of control satellite is... well what, exactly?

Let's not forget that part of DPRK's posturing is directed inwards - their recent "nuclear accident" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanggang_explosion) - to quote wiki "No neighboring nations have claimed any detection of radioactive isotopes characteristic of a nuclear explosion.", even though their news media hinted it as such, means that even an unsuccessful satellite will still be seen as a "we are a major power" - when broadcast to those in DPRK

So... where from here? DPRK joins the space race. That is still a concern. Does it matter that the satellite failed? Only if it was intended to be "just a satellite" If it was a "proof of concept" for an ICBM, then a wonky orbit is still an orbit

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"She's furniture with a pulse"

Re:What goes around, comes around by Solandri · 2012-12-12 15:03 · Score: 4, Insightful

Whatever it is, it's not a weather satellite. Those are put into geosynchronous or geostationary orbits (west to east with slight inclination or directly over the equator with zero inclination), so they'll have the same view of the Earth all the time. e.g. If India launches a weather satellite, they want it hanging over India 24/7 so, y'know, it'll show them pictures of the weather over India all the time. Because geosynchronous orbits are so much higher (42,000 km), they require a lot more energy than low earth orbit (150-300 km).

The North Korean satellite is in a polar orbit (north to south). You only put stuff into those highly inclined orbits if you want to maximize coverage of the Earth's surface - typically a spy satellite, though NASA's Landsat satellites are also in highly inclined orbits. The loiter time over any one spot on Earth is short, typically with a ~24 hour gap between flyovers (the Earth rotates underneath a stable orbit). Meaning without a communications satellite network or an array of receiving stations spanning the globe, you're only in communications with the satellite for a few minutes every 24 hours. But you do get coverage of the entire globe. Unless something went wildly wrong with the launch, this orbit was intentional since the spent stages fell towards the south-southwest. Most countries' early launches are to the east since you get free energy from the Earth's rotation if you launch in that direction.
Re:What goes around, comes around by Strider- · 2012-12-12 17:09 · Score: 5, Informative

Whatever it is, it's not a weather satellite. Those are put into geosynchronous or geostationary orbits (west to east with slight inclination or directly over the equator with zero inclination), so they'll have the same view of the Earth all the time. e.g. If India launches a weather satellite, they want it hanging over India 24/7 so, y'know, it'll show them pictures of the weather over India all the time. Because geosynchronous orbits are so much higher (42,000 km), they require a lot more energy than low earth orbit (150-300 km).
Actually, no. Much of the weather observations are done from polar orbiting satellites in low orbit. This allows them to have a much more detailed view of the earth and its weather systems then if you're geo-stationary. To put it in perspective, from geo-synchronous orbit, the earth is a sphere about 17 degrees wide. This is roughly the size of a basketball held out at arm's length. Sure you can see large scale weather patterns (Hurricanes and so forth) but it doesn't tell you about much about local conditions. This is where NOAA's POES satellites, as well as the ones from other nations are intended for. They are put into exactly the same type of sun-synchronous orbit as the NK launch.

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...si hoc legere nimium eruditionis habes...

Re:So what does the world do about it? by Spy+Handler · 2012-12-12 13:56 · Score: 5, Funny

And, of course, you sound so confident you can win (protip: You didn't win last time).

We didn't have Chuck Norris last time.

Re:So what does the world do about it? by russotto · 2012-12-12 14:21 · Score: 4, Informative

A satellite that, worst case, smashes into one of the US Military's satellites (say a GPS one, not one so secret they'd just go "WHAT SATELLITE, IT WAS A TRAINING EXERCISE").

Can't smash into a GPS satellite, because they're in a much higher orbit.

Re:So what does the world do about it? by Sasayaki · 2012-12-12 14:32 · Score: 4, Insightful

The war would be short, yep. Over in a few days, a week or so tops.

Okay, so now you have an impoverished third world country where the single biggest employer, the military, has been utterly destroyed, full of fanatically loyal people who hate you and will do everything to kill you even at the expense of their own lives.

"Troops home by Christmas" was the talk during WW I, "a shadow of the Great War" was the talk during WW II, "a bunch of fishermen in mud huts" was Korea (familiar?) and Vietnam. "Kill Osama, get out" was Afghanistan and "Get Sadam, freedom will rise" was Iraq.

If you think a conflict with North Korea would be "short" you're not looking beyond the big picture.

--
Check out my sci-fi book "Lacuna" at http://goo.gl/MVxX8

Re:It may not be stupidity by dj245 · 2012-12-12 14:36 · Score: 4, Insightful

You think North Korea cares about the UN? The UN can't agree that the Syrian government should be sanctioned. For launching a missile, the UN might decide to write a weakly worded statement that future misbehaving might incur a more strongly worded letter. Maybe. After weeks of negotiations and diplomacy.

--
Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress at this period in history.

North Korean news spin about the spin by Grayhand · 2012-12-12 14:40 · Score: 4, Funny

North Korean succeeds again, our new satellite is able to spin faster than any imperialist satellites and is expected to make a triumphant return any second now.

Re:Start betting on where it'll land? by gagol · 2012-12-12 14:57 · Score: 4, Insightful

I feel bad for those poor people, lets focus on precisely crash on Kim Jung Un.

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Tomorrow is another day...

Re:So what does the world do about it? by Donwulff · 2012-12-12 15:15 · Score: 4, Informative

The GPS satellites have altitude well in excess of 20.000km, so for a North Korean ballistic missile launched satellite with an orbit at just around 500km to hit them would make for some big news indeed. That problem aside, you should probably know the GPS satellites are not something you go pick up at a nearby hardware store - they have a lead-time of years, decades if you count slipping them in to the budget somewhere and generally mucking around.

While at any given time there are a few irds hold on spare, should a significant number (enough for GS network to take a hit) of them be lost due to a runaway Kessler syndrome or repeat Carrington event, it would be far longer than few weeks to recover the situation. Indeed, the big worry people are hinting at is a Kessler syndrome, where our satellites decide to play a big game of billiards at orbital velocity in the sky. Not only would in theory ALL currently orbiting satellites be lost, but the debris would prevent ANY space-launches for centuries to come.

The ISS, by the way, is below 410km so quite far below the North Korean satellite for now, though the satellite's orbit is sure to decay in the future. Luckily ISS presents fairly small footprint for collissions, in the big scheme, but countless other satellites and debris lay below the satellite's current orbit. It's not good, but it's probably not catastrohic considering how frequently some satellite or other malfunctions. Our near orbit has grown so crowded however that satellites have for long been de-orbited or moved to safe orbits when taken out of service (Like that Russian satellite that was simply de-orbited rather than re-purposed because it might've received more than its alloted dose of radiation in the Van Allen belts and was therefore a risk).

Re:It may not be stupidity by mug+funky · 2012-12-12 15:20 · Score: 5, Funny

do you have any idea how f'ing busy I am, Hans Brix??

By Canada by Roger+W+Moore · 2012-12-12 16:14 · Score: 4, Funny

Not only that but this is probably the only instance where Canada was better armed than the US.

FUD by Animats · 2012-12-12 20:23 · Score: 4, Informative

The satellite appears to be in a stable, nearly circular orbit. Perigee 505.3 km, apogee: 588.3 km. That's higher than the ISS. It's not going to re-enter any time soon. Good launch. Some idiot seems to have looked at a tracking site, saw that the altitude was decreasing, which happens for about half of each orbit, and made a big deal out of this.

It's not clear that the satellite is out of control. Many satellites tumble during their early orbits, until attitude stabilization is commanded and achieved. Since North Korea doesn't have a worldwide network of tracking stations, they can only send commands when the satellite passes over their country. They may choose to let it orbit for a while and collect some telemetry data before trying to stabilize it. Assuming it's equipped for attitude stabilization. Early US and USSR satellites were not stabilized.

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