Most Kickstarter Projects Fail To Deliver On Time

What's the percentage by Jmc23 · 2012-12-19 08:58 · Score: 5, Insightful

of non-kickstarter projects that miss deadlines?

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Re:What's the percentage by TheCarp · 2012-12-19 09:10 · Score: 5, Insightful

Not just miss deadlines, but miss their initial deadline.
Deadlines are fine.... but when scope and resources change, the deadline slips. That is simple project management 101.
One of the things I think it goes back to is the word "Inexperienced". Projects always seem easier in the planning phases than execution.
as the old saying goes.... Fast, Good, Cheap... pick 2.

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Re:What's the percentage by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:13 · Score: 0

Yeah I can't even imagine the difficulty in coming up with a deadline anyway, not knowing if I'm producing 500 or 2,000,000 of something. This, assuming we're talking about physical objects.
Re:What's the percentage by Kergan · 2012-12-19 09:21 · Score: 1

I was hoping in to write the exact same thing... Project misses deadline! News at 11. This is all FUD.
Re:What's the percentage by SpaceLifeForm · 2012-12-19 09:25 · Score: 1

Non-kickstarter projects that miss deadlines are usually never heard about in most cases.
And most of those failures are due to management being over aggressive with the tradeoffs between quality, cost, and time (pick 2).
But, there is the additional factor in kickstarter projects wherein that the project does not already have existing supplier relationships.
But those suppliers likely have existing relationships with companies that do not like the kickstarter concept.
Pressure to slow down deliveries can be intense.

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Re:What's the percentage by WaywardGeek · 2012-12-19 09:33 · Score: 1

There's also a natural tendency for entrepreneurs to be massively optimistic by nature. Most people who are more realistic realize that their effort is most likely going to fail, and will be a lot harder than it seems to succeed. Those people don't bother to jump in and commit to making something new. I suspect 84% being late is probably about the right number for startup efforts in general. This is partly why VCs love to see a seasoned team of people who've built companies before, and why they like to bring in such people when they don't see them.

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Re:What's the percentage by Macrat · 2012-12-19 09:45 · Score: 5, Insightful

Deadlines are fine.... but when scope and resources change, the deadline slips. That is simple project management 101.
I guess you've never worked at a real company where the management's bonuses are based on a shipping date they pulled out of thin air. So the project has to meet that date even if it means dropping features and shipping with bugs.
Re:What's the percentage by Sir_Sri · 2012-12-19 09:53 · Score: 2

The issue with kickstarter becomes one of the relationship between the 'investor' (who isn't actually an investor) and the producer. When you invest in my company we have a business relationship, the scope of the project expands and you give me more money, well, the relationship has changed. With kickstarter... harder to say.
If you contract my company to do something, and I fail to deliver on time (or on budget or the like) there are legal contractual issues that can be fought over. With kickstarter... not so much. What if a project decides to change a reward tier after the fact. Sorry, but I know you gave 10 grand to our game and we promised to fly you out to meet us, but uh... we're not doing that.
It's not a shock to anyone that projects don't make deadlines. But it raises a lot of questions about the nature of kickstarter funding. What if the project gets half done and they need more money so they go to a bank and can no longer keep all of their past kickstarter reward commitments? Can they even do that? If they just shut down you're obviously not getting anything. That's a given. But the huge in between space from 'on budget and on time' to 'not on time and not on budget' is going to get tricky.
Re:What's the percentage by Vintermann · 2012-12-19 09:53 · Score: 2

Dropping features isn't really an option for Kickstarter projects, it's going to be much more unpopular than a little late delivery.

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Re:What's the percentage by Shagg · 2012-12-19 09:58 · Score: 1

Most of them.

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Re:What's the percentage by tlhIngan · 2012-12-19 10:03 · Score: 5, Insightful

Kickstarter has a problem in that the funding sources are unlimited.
Lets say you did good and had everything planned for a production run of say, 250 units (probably a good crowdfunded estimate). Now you suddenly get people who order 1000 units total.
Problem is, production doesn't scale linearly - building 1000 takes a LOT more effort than building 250. First, your production method may work for 250, but fail for 1000 - if you planned on using a small contract manufacturer, they may not have the ability to deliver you 1000 units anymore - existing commitments may be the first 250 will be built as planned, but the excess depends on spare capacity. Depending on when you put it in, there may be none. So for example, if you have a Kickstarter that started in May and ends in June, get the money in July and start getting parts to build out August-September (assuming you can get the quantity required - again, your design may call for a special part available in small quantities, so 250 units, fine, 1000 units, well, Digikey has 700 in stock, the 300 have a 4 week lead time). Oh wait, your contract manufacturer can build in September, but October is fully booked for holiday production, so you can build 500 easily, but now you're stuck because your production line is at capacity.
So either you have to plan for it ahead of time by making sure you can line up the contract manufacturers if necessary (expensive), get the parts ahead of time (expensive), or let the schedule slip because well, building 1000 units is a lot harder than 250.
Perhaps it got popular and instead of building 250, suddenly you're saked to build 10,000. Now you've got a problem because at 250 units, Design for Manufacture isn't an issue. At 10,000, it really is because complex assemblies take time and cost more, and you may seriously have to consider making it in China, too.
Re:What's the percentage by TheCarp · 2012-12-19 10:08 · Score: 4, Informative

Now, I said its project management 101. I didn't say that managers listen to project managers, or that project managers always understand/are good at their jobs. I was just suggesting that, a SMART analysis would have to take these things into account.
I have however worked at rather unreal "companies" that ignored reality and pulled dates out of their asses. And.... their projects were never even close to on time. One of my own projects got delayed over 6 months because I raised the flag that production needed SSL certs on the authentication servers.
A year or so before that, I sat down in my managers office, looked at him and told him, flat out... my project was a year behind schedule when they hired me, its 6 months in, and I still can't get a single solid requirement out of anyone aside from vague statements about "people really want it".... he smiled, looked at me and said "I know, and we are all scared".
So basically, I worked for the people who pretended to be a real company, who picked deadlines out of their ass and then flogged people over them, but... who never actually let anyone go... so nobody really feared them....just disrespected them, were demoralized, and didn't want to work.... which didn't help the deadlines either.....
I have also worked with good project managers who pushed back on management, and really went to bat with management to make sure the plan and progress were understood and that we had real management buy-in.... smoothest and best projects I have EVER been on.... but she wasn't with me at that company.... that company had an entire group of dedicated project managers, all of whom would just roll their eyes if you suggested that a gantt chart was even worth making...well all except for the one who stayed for 6 months and left....

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Re:What's the percentage by Enry · 2012-12-19 10:10 · Score: 1

We're done here, no need for more comments.
Re:What's the percentage by Kergan · 2012-12-19 10:17 · Score: 3, Funny

The issue with kickstarter becomes one of the relationship between the 'investor' (who isn't actually an investor)
And therein lies the rub. They're not investors. At the very most they're sponsors or supporters.

It's not a shock to anyone that projects don't make deadlines.
If TFS and TFA are anything to go by, it evidently is. *Shocked* even. WOW, the project is late!!! Call the fucking cops! News at 11.
Re:What's the percentage by cwebster · 2012-12-19 10:20 · Score: 4, Informative

Your first statement is untrue. You can limit the number of backers in each tier you set up. If you can only accommodate a production run of 250 units, you can set the pledge tier that includes the item as a reward to only allow 250 people to select it. Sure, that will limit your funding if you limit the tiers,but it fixes your hypothetical problem.
Re:What's the percentage by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 10:25 · Score: 0

My Kickstarter project hit it's expected deadline, but primarily because manufacturing was already in motion by the time I'd created the project. The fact that soap bar production is a mature industry was instrumental in meeting the deadline. The only limitations were my own ability to learn the system of production and logistics that already exists. http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1627046474/stack-soap-bars-that-combine-no-wasted-or-broken-p
Re:What's the percentage by rochrist · 2012-12-19 10:32 · Score: 5, Funny

So basically, I worked for the people who pretended to be a real company, who picked deadlines out of their ass and then flogged people over them, but... who never actually let anyone go... so nobody really feared them....just disrespected them, were demoralized, and didn't want to work.... which didn't help the deadlines either.....
In my experience, that IS a real company. Pretty much every tech company I've worked for behaved this way. It's way I tend to laugh at the whole 'the private sector can do it moah bettah!'
Re:What's the percentage by MrBigInThePants · 2012-12-19 10:43 · Score: 1

So true.
My initial reaction was: DUH, welcome to project management.
Then you add that many if not most meet several stretch targets that are to be completed without bigger teams etc etc.
So yeah, just DUH.
Re:What's the percentage by Herkum01 · 2012-12-19 10:44 · Score: 1

The other issue is that these projects went in with an expected level of funding and since we are talking about the most successful projects, they drastically exceeded their initial projects. How are these guys going to possibly meet their deadlines when they have to scale up DRASTICALLY.
Take for example, Relic Knights they were funded at 4400% beyond what they initially asked for. I don't know many factories, more or less individuals, that can just scale up production 40 times what they expected. That they are late should be a surprise to nobody and businesses do this crap all the time. The difference is that the information is not publicly available for people to bitch about.
Re:What's the percentage by timeOday · 2012-12-19 10:44 · Score: 1

So the project has to meet that date even if it means dropping features and shipping with bugs.
I don't think slipping requirements or quality rather than delivery date qualifies as "meeting the deadline" in any meaningful sense. Of course meeting requirements and quality are much easier to fudge than the date, so they are often first to give way.
Re:What's the percentage by timeOday · 2012-12-19 10:51 · Score: 2

There's also a natural tendency for entrepreneurs to be massively optimistic by nature.

Perhaps there is also a natural tendency for funding sources to favor those who over-promise. You notice this study was of "the top 50 most-funded Kickstarter projects," so this may be as much a reflection of what gets funded as anything else. Especially since the whole point of kickstarter is to allow naive people to invest.
Re:What's the percentage by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 11:46 · Score: 0

Lol 2. You get to pick one. Sometimes none.
Re:What's the percentage by khallow · 2012-12-19 12:34 · Score: 1

Problem is, production doesn't scale linearly - building 1000 takes a LOT more effort than building 250.
It's generally sublinear, until you hit production levels that start distorting the whole economy. What's happening here is the typical consequence of changing your original plan a lot, not some complexity that kicks in when you make more things.
Re:What's the percentage by slick7 · 2012-12-19 13:16 · Score: 2

of non-kickstarter projects that miss deadlines?
I worked in an industry that believed in "Faster, Cheaper, Better". It sounds too good to be true, however, if you add "Pick Two", it makes all the sense in the world.

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Re:What's the percentage by Hotawa+Hawk-eye · 2012-12-19 14:47 · Score: 1

And then if the project becomes popular and many additional backers want in, you add in a new tier with a later estimated delivery date for the second batch of units.
Re:What's the percentage by Sir_Sri · 2012-12-19 16:41 · Score: 1

>And therein lies the rub. They're not investors. At the very most they're sponsors or supporters.
Perhaps, but they have been given some sort of dubious sort of maybe kind of pre-order like thing.
>If TFS and TFA are anything to go by, it evidently is. *Shocked* even. WOW, the project is late!!! Call the fucking cops! News at 11.
That's not the tone I read from it. That projects slip isn't a surprise, the information here is that between 75 and 85% of the best funded projects don't meet deadlines, although many of them only run a couple of months behind, which is not, on the scale of things, a huge problem. The rest of them though, that are running very late... that's an issue.
Re:What's the percentage by chrismcb · 2012-12-19 18:26 · Score: 1

One of the things I think it goes back to is the word "Inexperienced". Projects always seem easier in the planning phases than execution.
To be fair, TFS did say:

It took off, raising vastly more money than they anticipated — and obliterating the original production plans and timeline.
Even experienced planning can get blown away if your actual numbers are "vastly more" than your planned numbers.
Also does it take into account the number of times that real world stuff ships, and you never know about it?
Re:What's the percentage by chrismcb · 2012-12-19 18:32 · Score: 1

It's not a shock to anyone that projects don't make deadlines. But it raises a lot of questions about the nature of kickstarter funding.

No it isn't a shock. Really the only problem is that the companies schedule is more public. Deadlines are missed a lot, especially when you have to do more than planned.
But NO it doesn't raise any questions. Those questions were already there. You should have been asking those questions before you donated.
Re:What's the percentage by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 21:01 · Score: 0

So basically, I worked for the people who pretended to be a real company, who picked deadlines out of their ass and then flogged people over them, but... who never actually let anyone go... so nobody really feared them....just disrespected them, were demoralized, and didn't want to work.... which didn't help the deadlines either...
Oh, so you've worked for the public service then..
Re:What's the percentage by neyla · 2012-12-19 22:01 · Score: 1

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. No production isn't generally linear: it is generally *sub*linear.
Making 1000 of something, generally costs LESS than 4 times the price of 250 of the thing, not *more* than 4 times.
It's true that making 10000 in an efficient will likely take longer than making 250 - because the more efficient production requires a longer and more complicated setup-phase, but there's no problem putting this in the kickstarter-description: "The first batch will be 250 items, if we get more backers, then we'll make additional batches as required ..... "
Re:What's the percentage by neyla · 2012-12-19 22:53 · Score: 1

Sure they are ! If the projects are talked about at all, they miss deadlines more commonly than not.
When was the Dreamliner *supposed* to have it's first flight ? When where the first 20 supposed to be delivered ? When should the F35 be operational ? How many planes should be delivered by 2015. What should each plane cost ?
Projects take longer, cost more, and deliver less than hoped for. This happens regularly, indeed it's much more common than the opposite of a project that's completed before deadline, with more than promised features, under budget.
Anyone who's ever renovated a kitchen knows this. It's not news.
Re:What's the percentage by Jaysyn · 2012-12-19 22:59 · Score: 1

At the real company I work at, management's bonuses have nothing to do with deadlines set by our customers.

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Re:What's the percentage by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 23:38 · Score: 0

You should try working for the government and seeing if it's better or worse (it's usually worse).
Re:What's the percentage by trout007 · 2012-12-20 00:19 · Score: 1

The point is not that companies in the private sector are always better. But those that don't deliver eventually go out of business. When you screw up in government you get more money.

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Re:What's the percentage by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-20 03:51 · Score: 0

The nature of a lot of creative projects is that a slightly improved version doesn't hold a lot of value for the people who already played version 1. If it's a videogame, and they're already gone through the plot and seen the artwork, not a lot of people are going to go back and play through the whole thing so that they can enjoy the new perks system. Creative projects are generally best released ready to go, with no known bugs and feature complete, regardless of how long that takes.
Re:What's the percentage by Shoten · 2012-12-20 03:52 · Score: 1

Deadlines are fine.... but when scope and resources change, the deadline slips. That is simple project management 101.
I guess you've never worked at a real company where the management's bonuses are based on a shipping date they pulled out of thin air. So the project has to meet that date even if it means dropping features and shipping with bugs.
I guess *you've* never worked at a real company, where changes to resource allocation or project scope mean that you get to adjust the project plan. This is totally normal, whether it's an internal project, or something that's being done by a vendor. In either case, if a change to the scope of what you have to deliver takes place (which was the case for most of the Kickstarter projects that missed their initial deadlines) and you don't have a process or verbiage to allow for project adjustment, then whoever set up that project was brutally incompetent. This, too, is simple project management 101. It's simple: it takes X resources Y amount of time to produce Z. If the value for Z is increased, then either Y or X (or both) must change. Even if management doesn't understand what went into determining Y, they can grasp the simple math of this. If not, then I assume you work for HP, my friend :)

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Re:What's the percentage by tlhIngan · 2012-12-20 04:27 · Score: 3, Informative

That doesn't make any sense whatsoever. No production isn't generally linear: it is generally *sub*linear.
Making 1000 of something, generally costs LESS than 4 times the price of 250 of the thing, not *more* than 4 times.
It's true that making 10000 in an efficient will likely take longer than making 250 - because the more efficient production requires a longer and more complicated setup-phase, but there's no problem putting this in the kickstarter-description: "The first batch will be 250 items, if we get more backers, then we'll make additional batches as required ..... "
Yes, it's sub-linear. However, if the original plans were for 250, and you get 1000, you need to retool stuff a LOT. Once you get into mass production (250 can be considered a small run that's easily handmade), the jump in costs is huge and beyond most people's abilities
Look at the Occulus guys - they originally planned on having the prototype developer hardware to be assembled with hot glue and duct tape. Well, that's fine for 250 units hand-assembled. Not so much with all the support they got, so now they have to invest a lot more money into moulds (easily $30K each) so it can be assembled in China (the original plan I believe was hand assembly by the team).
The problem is, ramping up is way beyond most people's abilities - it's trivial to make one-offs of something, even small runs, but once you get to larger runs a lot of work needs to be done.
250 can be done by a small team of people in the kickstarter over two or three weeks. To do 1000 this way is untenable - do it in 4 batches and you'll find the team burnt out by the 3rd batch.
So now you have to investigate contract manufacturers, have to do trial runs, costs of shipping, customs, etc. What you planned to complete in a few months suddenly takes a few months before production can get started, period. More if there are production problems (like a small tricky assembly gets done wrong, so it doesn't work and you have yields below 90%) because you didn't design for manufacture (again, something most people don't need to do for small runs).
Or, perhaps you planned on using a 3D printer to make parts, great for small runs, even contracted out. But this too can be problematic - Apple has seen this when they made an iPhone 4 part in a machine designed for prototyping, which resulted in Foxconn having to buy 20 of the machines to build enough parts. Probably more to accomodate breakdowns, since these machines aren't designed to run 24/7 continually.
And most people on KS do NOT have the skills, contacts, or ability to handle it when it blows up. It makes sense - some Joe comes up with something cool and gets a KS done to raise money to build it. But once it breaks beyond a "backyard hacking" style of manufacture to mass production, most folks are way beyond their league.
Re:What's the percentage by DidgetMaster · 2012-12-20 04:32 · Score: 1

The mechanism is certainly in place. The problem is that too many inexperienced entrepreneurs don't know how to use it correctly. The guy starting the project has to know about most of the "large quantity" issues up front and plan for them. Too many projects get delayed because they didn't plan for them and now they are stuck dealing with many of the issues enumerated by tlhingan.
Re:What's the percentage by Sir_Sri · 2012-12-20 05:37 · Score: 1

You should have been asking those questions before you donated.

Except there aren't answers. Whatever kickstarters EULA states hasn't been tested in court. Kickstarter is new, and some of these questions aren't well addressed in modern law, nor is it clear if politicians will jump onto kickstarter and write new laws. That's where it all becomes tricky.
Re:What's the percentage by Patch86 · 2012-12-20 09:22 · Score: 1

I work in a real company, and project dates still slip if either scope, resources or both change. Project Management can get as cross as they like, but that's reality. There's only so far you can lower quality to compensate.
If you estimate dates for a project that delivers a few 100 units for a few thousand dollars, those dates simply won't fit a project for a few hundred thousand units for a few million dollars. Just the cost of tooling up is enough to set you back months. Cutting corners or botching the testing can only get you so far.
Re:What's the percentage by Patch86 · 2012-12-20 09:38 · Score: 1

The problem is really that people don't understand what they're doing with Kickstarter any more. It's a symptom of how popular it's become in such a short period.
The idea is that you're sponsoring a project with what amounts to a donation, and some projects offer to give you a a free item of their product if the project is successful. And that's different from a pre-order. It's a donation with a potential reward; there's no guarantee you'll get anything.
So I've recently pledged to the GODUS project*, at a pledge level that gives me a copy of the game once it ships. But I've got to be completely OK with the fact that I might have lost that money forever; I'm OK with that, I haven't pledged more than I can afford, and the risk/reward ratio seems good.
* While we're on the topic, GODUS recently announced Linux support as a stretch goal. Last day of the fund-raising so it's probably out of reach, but fingers crossed...

And the problem is? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 08:59 · Score: 5, Insightful

Timelines on crowd funding sites are just estimates.

If you fund a project expecting them to meet your deadlines you are a fool.

Don't fund it because you expect them to hit their deadlines, fund it because it is a cool product that you want when it is actually ready.

I have funded a number of cool projects and been very happy with the resulting hardware when I got it.

Re:And the problem is? by neminem · 2012-12-19 09:15 · Score: 5, Insightful

> Timelines are just estimates.
> If you fund a project expecting them to meet your deadlines you are a fool.
Fixed that for you.
Re:And the problem is? by SolitaryMan · 2012-12-19 09:23 · Score: 1

Exactly. I think 14% of projects delivering on time is amazing.

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Re:And the problem is? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 23:49 · Score: 0

The problem is idiot backers thinking of kickstarter as some sort of Skymall.
Re:And the problem is? by bfandreas · 2012-12-20 06:40 · Score: 1

It is above average of any biggish projects.

Quite a lot of Kickstarter projects seem to be run off a shoestring budget and by people with a day job. Those which aren't are big enough to run into the usual problems.
This is not news. It is just some information.

I'm Jack's total lack of surprise.

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Just Kickstarter??? by Omega+Hacker · 2012-12-19 09:01 · Score: 5, Insightful

*ALL* projects have a high rate of blowing deadlines, that's what happens with complex stuff. Show me numbers that Kickstarter projects have a worse rate of being late than any other comparable projects out there, and then we can talk.

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Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:12 · Score: 1

At least normal projects have upper management to keep the project manager in line, and a lot of custom development projects have a customer organization you have to keep happy by meeting deadlines. A team implementing a kickstarter project has neither.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:13 · Score: 0

*ALL* projects have a high rate of blowing deadlines, that's what happens with complex stuff.

Maybe it's because folks are too optomistic in their time tables?
Maybe they do that to get the funding?
The above questions are rhetorical.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by amiga3D · 2012-12-19 09:19 · Score: 2

I don't notice normal projects doing more than giving lip service to keeping customers, or consumers as most call them nowadays, happy. It seems everyone slips deadlines and cuts projected implementations and covers it with excuses of all types. I think this is what the normal projects excel at, telling lies to make up for amended expectations. In fact I believe that is the number one function of upper management.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by exomondo · 2012-12-19 09:57 · Score: 1

*ALL* projects have a high rate of blowing deadlines, that's what happens with complex stuff.
Most aren't crowdfunded though, so of course it's not just Kickstarter, but Kickstarter is far and away the most popular crowdfunding site.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Samantha+Wright · 2012-12-19 10:00 · Score: 1

But here's the thing. The survey specifically focused on projects that exceeded their expected budgets, requiring them to work longer to fully utilize the money they received. I would be disappointed if a project that received twice the money as projected only did the same amount of work as projected.

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Re:Just Kickstarter??? by exomondo · 2012-12-19 10:04 · Score: 1

But here's the thing. The survey specifically focused on projects that exceeded their expected budgets, requiring them to work longer to fully utilize the money they received. I would be disappointed if a project that received twice the money as projected only did the same amount of work as projected.
Why would you have to work longer? More money means more resources, time isn't the only resource.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Samantha+Wright · 2012-12-19 10:16 · Score: 2

Well, if it's a creative project, that means without a question more work into the design and execution process with some fraction of the number of workers that's inflexible. If it's a non-creative project and the number of people is variable, then there's still O(n^2) communication overhead. Sure, for some projects more money directly results in more product and the work is embarrassingly parallelizable (e.g. a production run of something that already exists), but any project that's predominantly product development will have to experience some manner of growth in consumption of time.

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Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Coeurderoy · 2012-12-19 10:32 · Score: 1

hihi, haha, muahhaaaaaaa....
upper management is not keeping the project in line, it is either managing the project and has the same problems as anybody, planing is HARD!
Or they are busy covering their asses....
But hoping that they'll somehow fix the issue, you are naive...
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by exomondo · 2012-12-19 10:34 · Score: 1

That whole idea is predicated on them actually over-delivering on the final product to a degree that matches the increased budget and delay, so what projects have done that?

If it's a non-creative project and the number of people is variable, then there's still O(n^2) communication overhead.
Which could be something or could be virtually nothing.

but any project that's predominantly product development will have to experience some manner of growth in consumption of time.
If they overdeliver...is that what's happening here? Did the Printrbot, Cookoo watch or Elevation dock overdeliver?
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Samantha+Wright · 2012-12-19 11:35 · Score: 1

No project that exceeds its expected funding should fail to overdeliver. Let us gather the torches and pitchforks.

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Re:Just Kickstarter??? by exomondo · 2012-12-19 12:20 · Score: 1

Well i'm just trying to work out whether the justification you're making is based on anything or just speculating on something that could possibly happen, seems it's the latter.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Samantha+Wright · 2012-12-19 13:03 · Score: 1

Well, I broke down and read TFA. The article implies through heavy use of anecdotal evidence that Kickstarter teams are inexperienced in product delivery, overly-optimistic about how long it will take to develop and refine the production process, and that's about it. Caveat emptor.

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Re:Just Kickstarter??? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 13:30 · Score: 0

Yes, I'm sure it has absolutely nothing to do with unpredictability.
Re:Just Kickstarter??? by bfandreas · 2012-12-20 06:51 · Score: 1

If we are talking about custom software made for a customer it most often is the customer who needs to be kept in line. If you are writing a mass marketed bit of code then you have to reign in marketing. Also one of your worst problems is to communicate real requirements to your devs. Or to get the customer or marketing to be precse about what they want.

A lot of kKickstarter projects are games. Games are highly iterative and derivative. If during your development cycle somebody comes up with a nifty and highly popular mechanic/idea/trick then there is a lot of pressure to also include it into your thing lest it sell like white dog turds.
Upper management has no mechanism but spreadsheets to stem the idiocy that is feature creep. If marketing/the customer tells them, feature X is absolutely needed then it will be thrown onto the already ample pile. Upper management can only call the sky blue and water wet. Otherwise they'd need to educate themselves to contribute to the solution instead of the problem. But they operate at a level where it doesn't make a difference wether they managed production of brown, fizzy sugar water or a computer manufacturer. Or does it?

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20 minutes into the future

Does any product ship on time? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:02 · Score: 1

AMD and Intel Processors, Nexus 4, ah.... why even give examples....if 8 kickstarters hit their deadline, that's probably as good as, or even better than what regular businesses deliver.

Re:Does any product ship on time? by SolitaryMan · 2012-12-19 09:28 · Score: 1

Don't forget that those have missed *publicly announced deadlines*. The companies behind them had plenty of time to plan and complete a couple of rounds internally before publicly announcing completion date.
With Kickstarter most deadlines are basically guesses.

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May Peace Prevail On Earth
Re:Does any product ship on time? by exomondo · 2012-12-19 09:59 · Score: 1

AMD and Intel Processors, Nexus 4, ah.... why even give examples....if 8 kickstarters hit their deadline, that's probably as good as, or even better than what regular businesses deliver.
But you didn't pay for the processor before it was developed.

Most software projects are late. by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:02 · Score: 0

A more interesting metric would be to compare it other game software projects.

The exception was Y2K projects (ask your grandparents) where the CEO had to mention it in the annual report; those met their deadling.

Re:Most software projects are late. by X0563511 · 2012-12-19 09:09 · Score: 1

So? Kickstarter is not all just software, and not all just games.

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For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
Re:Most software projects are late. by 3seas · 2012-12-19 09:17 · Score: 1

exactly.... we all know software is commonly underestimaed in the time it takes to produce and that is before bhug killing. Why? The intelligence of those programming is overestimated....
Oh helll now I'm gonna be modded troll.... but before this happens ... I really do see the code.... http://abstractionphysics.net/pmwiki/index.php

who would have thunk it by ArsonSmith · 2012-12-19 09:02 · Score: 1

running a business and delivering a product is hard. But business owners are complete idiot morons, i really don't understand.

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Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.

Re:who would have thunk it by dkleinsc · 2012-12-19 10:24 · Score: 4, Informative

You're assuming that in order to be a business owner, you need to be good at business.
That's demonstrably untrue. For instance, many business owners got there because their dad (or granddad or great-granddad) were good at business, even if Junior is a complete idiot. Other business owners are people that got a big pile of wealth by other means and invested it in an existing business and were thus put in charge by virtue of their voting shares. Still others owe their position to successfully "failing upwards" i.e. getting promoted despite failing left and right.

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I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
Re:who would have thunk it by ArsonSmith · 2012-12-19 18:23 · Score: 1

I didn't check. Are there a lot of kick starts along the lines of "send me money so I can by the Chinese food restaurant in my neighborhood. I have no experience but just want to give it a try."
And yes there are stupid business owners. There are very few business creators. Also, The stupid ones don't last long.

--
Paying taxes to buy civilization is like paying a hooker to buy love.
Re:who would have thunk it by dkf · 2012-12-19 19:08 · Score: 1

There are very few business creators.
There are lots of business creators, but many of them fail or never grow that business beyond mom-and-pop store size. It's still a business. They're still business creators.

The stupid [business owners] don't last long
That's not necessarily so. Mind you, the truly stupid probably don't last. It's the ones who happen to get lucky finding a profitable thing to do (even if that's "raiding the trust fund every year") who can endure for quite a long while.

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"Little does he know, but there is no 'I' in 'Idiot'!"

I'll look into it by crazyjj · 2012-12-19 09:03 · Score: 4, Funny

If you guys will float me $20,000 in costs, I'll launch an investigation at some point in the future. $1,000 donation gets you first dibs on the report I'll produce!

--
What political party do you join when you don't like Bible-thumpers *or* hippies?

Re:I'll look into it by smittyoneeach · 2012-12-19 09:20 · Score: 0

I need to know in advance that your findings will exonerate me. --HRC

--
Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
Re:I'll look into it by turkeyfeathers · 2012-12-19 09:21 · Score: 1

Gartner Group can help you out with that.
Re:I'll look into it by smittyoneeach · 2012-12-19 09:30 · Score: 1

Sweet. What about my concussion? --HRC

--
Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
Re:I'll look into it by Vintermann · 2012-12-19 09:58 · Score: 1

Because Kickstarter backers will fund anything, am I right? Huh? Huh?

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xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
Re:I'll look into it by SuperKendall · 2012-12-19 10:43 · Score: 1

I need to know in advance that your findings will exonerate me.
That's tier 5 ($1000, evasionarium)

--
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Re:I'll look into it by theswimmingbird · 2012-12-19 10:46 · Score: 0

Do you take Bitcoin?
Re:I'll look into it by smittyoneeach · 2012-12-19 13:46 · Score: 1

Given that we know about your little indiscretion down in Cabo, you might want to be more flexible on the pricing.--HRC

--
Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear

Is this really a surprise to anyone? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:05 · Score: 0

I guess it might be if you haven't read the last few /. articles on the exact same topic.

OH REALLY!? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:05 · Score: 0

In other news, water is wet.

Tech time lines by EmperorOfCanada · 2012-12-19 09:07 · Score: 5, Interesting

First I plead guilty to the worst time estimating ever. I would probably guess wrong as to how long it will take me to make this post. I have had personal 2 week projects drag on for 6 months no problem. So if anyone has some great rules of thumb I would love to know. Years ago I met a CFO who had just finished grilling his tech guy for over an hour getting the tech guy to come up with a worst case scenario for the project they were about to begin. In that hour the tech guy nearly tripled his time and cost estimates. After he left the CFO doubled the time and cost estimate for the budget. In the end the CFO was nearly bang on.

I have taken a great PMI course and would recommend it to anyone in tech. Yet the PMI stuff was great if the project was fairly straightforward. But most tech projects, especially those found on kickstarter, are not really building projects so much as R&D which by its nature delves into the unknown. So scheduling the unknown is either going to be very fuzzy or lies. Since most people insist on a fixed date they are insisting on being lied to .

So I would be the last to cast stones and would doubt fraud until the fuzziness of R&D had been eliminated.

Re:Tech time lines by godrik · 2012-12-19 09:30 · Score: 4, Funny

"I have had personal 2 week projects drag on for 6 months no problem. So if anyone has some great rules of thumb I would love to know."
You know what they say: times 2, round up.
2 weeks x 2 = 1 month. round up : 1 year.
Re:Tech time lines by Kingkaid · 2012-12-19 09:44 · Score: 1

The first key is knowing what you actually have to do, and knowing what else will be competing for your time. So let's say you estimate a component will take 8 hours of programming to do. Well don't assume that it will be done in a day. You have some break time in there, emails to answer, possibly a meeting, so 8 hours of work will likely take you closer to 11 or 12 to actually accomplish. After that - just keep guessing by writing stuff down and comparing actuals with estimates. My rule of thumb for myself is take how long I think I could do the project in, assuming nothing comes up to block it. Now double it. And add an extra half of the original estimate. That is usually in-line with the final product for me, but that does assume nothing else comes up.
Re:Tech time lines by Krneki · 2012-12-19 09:44 · Score: 1

Disclaimer: I'm a sysadmin so my experience may not relate to your wok.
Think how much time it will take and multiply it by 3.
But then again I have an incredible feeling for time. If I wake at night to take a piss I can tell what time it is (-/+ 10 min). And I decided to be without watch 20 years ago, yet I'm never late.

--
Love many, trust a few, do harm to none.
Re:Tech time lines by PantherSE · 2012-12-19 09:51 · Score: 3, Insightful

Years ago I met a CFO who had just finished grilling his tech guy for over an hour getting the tech guy to come up with a worst case scenario for the project they were about to begin. In that hour the tech guy nearly tripled his time and cost estimates. After he left the CFO doubled the time and cost estimate for the budget. In the end the CFO was nearly bang on.
I would say this is a good CFO. The CFO understood that he had a choice: get it done quickly, or get it done right the first time; and he chose the latter.
Re:Tech time lines by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:51 · Score: 0

"Always multiply your estimates by a factor of 4. How else do you expect to be thought of as a miracle worker?"
-Captain Montgomery Scott.
Re:Tech time lines by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:52 · Score: 0

I found what works for me is to estimate how long I actually think it will take me to do the initial work. I then double that number then add 50% to the resulting number and find it comes (more or less) accurate (within a 5-10% margin).
If I have a programming project I expect would take about 3 weeks, the end result is about 9 weeks for a deliverable. This usually gives me enough contingency for adequate testing and bug fixing.
When management starts to monkey with the time frame given, they are given the choice of either delivering a sub-par product that will result in multiple bug fixes (thereby taking longer in the long term) or having a solid product that will only require the occasional bug fix and maybe a new feature request.
Re:Tech time lines by cadience · 2012-12-19 09:57 · Score: 5, Funny

My 'Rule of Thumb': estimatedHours * 3.14

Manager: your time estimates are surprisingly accurate; what is your secret.
Me: Thanks, I multiply by PI to account for being ran around in circles.
Manger: *not amused*

Funny? Yes, but also a true story.
Re:Tech time lines by WaywardGeek · 2012-12-19 10:02 · Score: 1

This is why I love my job. Managers *hate* projects with fuzzy schedules and unknown resource requirements. On the other hand, geeks like me love creating new stuff. This creates a never ending tension. I'm lucky to be at a company that is willing to let me fail or miss a deadline along the way to creating something cool.

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Celebrate failure, and then learn from it - Nolan Bushnell
Re:Tech time lines by Quirkz · 2012-12-19 10:30 · Score: 1

I then double that number then add 50% to the resulting number
So you multiply by three, then, but with an unnecessary intermediate step?

2x*1.5 = 3x

--
The Quirkz Handbook of Self-Improvement for People Who Are Already Pretty Okay
Re:Tech time lines by Coeurderoy · 2012-12-19 10:36 · Score: 2

my wok is fine, but my frying pan needs to be replaced :-)
Re:Tech time lines by TapeCutter · 2012-12-19 10:45 · Score: 1

In that hour the tech guy nearly tripled his time and cost estimates. After he left the CFO doubled the time and cost estimate for the budget. In the end the CFO was nearly bang on.
Ten bucks says the tech guy was only estimating the time it would take to code. People are usually pretty good at estimating their own work, what they are not good at is estimating the bigger picture. This is not a failing, it's "by design", division of labour and all that. Also, the fool will underestimate to impress, the wise will overestimate for the same reason.

There were a lot of studies done in the early-mid 90's about IT projects, the common wisdom of the time was 3/4 of all commercial IT projects that are started, (ie: get a budget), never actually make it into production, regardless of deadlines. One major reason for that was that upper management would often have 2-3 different teams tackling the same (or similar) problems, as work progresses the "best" team is fed more resources at the expense of the others, I'd be surprised if the "fail" rate has changed much.

The basic principle is easy to understand, if you want the best apple in the orchard you will have to throw the rest of them away in the process of finding it. Often the difficulty is that they don't know exactly what the best apple looks like, they just know they don't have it yet. The IT revolution is over and has been for more than a decade, it's now unthinkable to start/run a company today without some involvement from computers. Once a company has a non-trivial computer system it is never replaced, it evolves, and if your careful how much you feed it, it will evolve with the company and won't turn cancerous.

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And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Re:Tech time lines by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 10:51 · Score: 1

Comparing results with estimates is probably the key.
I used to have a job delivering pizza. I'd go into the store and find a half-dozen orders ready to be delivered, each with a "promised" delivery time. We were supposed to look at that time and take as many orders with us as we could deliver without making any of them later than that time. This is actually difficult to figure out since driving time varies, the time it takes people to answer their door varies, and sometimes you come across a block of houses, none of which have numbers, and it's just a guessing game to figure out which is the one that ordered the pizza. Not to mention, initially, your sense of how long it takes you to drive anywhere isn't all that great.
However, do this for a few months, and you get to the point where, when you're at each house delivering the order, the time that you get there is exactly what you estimated it would be in most cases. Granted, pizzas are still early and late because either everyone is ordering at the same time or no one is ordering, but at least you're able to tell people at the store how late you'll be so they know what to tell people if they happen to call wondering where their food is. Largely the problem with late pizzas isn't your delivery driver, but the people at the store answering the phones. They don't get feedback on their time estimates and so they don't learn to make better estimates.
Re:Tech time lines by TapeCutter · 2012-12-19 11:04 · Score: 1

I once took part in a training exercise. About 10 of us in a room (all Aussies) were asked to estimate the distance from Melbourne to Perth. The fist thing that surprised me were the number of people who had absolute no idea, the second thing was the average of all guesses was pretty accurate. The fundamental mistake a lot of managers make is they don't ask enough people, often they don't even ask the person doing the work. If a boss tells (as opposed to asks) me how long it will take and it turns out to take longer then that's his problem not mine, provided I've acted in good faith any CIO worth his title will back me up.

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And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
Re:Tech time lines by sticky.pirate · 2012-12-19 12:06 · Score: 1

My rule of thumb is: come up with an estimate, double it, add 1, and move to the next highest unit of measure, e.g. 1 hour -> 3 days, 1 day -> 3 weeks.
Re:Tech time lines by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 21:54 · Score: 0

I met a CFO who had just finished grilling his tech guy for over an hour getting the tech guy to come up with a worst case scenario for the project they were about to begin. In that hour the tech guy nearly tripled his time and cost estimates. After he left the CFO doubled the time and cost estimate for the budget.

Experience shows that the CFO's technique works well.
There must be statistical theory to back this. Finding a good choice of probability distribution to model worst-case estimate to actual project duration would the starting point, I should imagine.
Re:Tech time lines by N1AK · 2012-12-20 00:32 · Score: 1

Joking aside the issue is there is no correct ratio. Different companies have different tolerances for, and prioritisation for, deadlines and project work. In my current firm a ration of estimate of time needed x 3 (for typical issues0 would probably be about right. The problem is that if they ask you to explain why something that includes maybe 40hrs work is going to take 2 months many companies won't like hearing, and sometimes accept, because people will invariably stall, get things wrong, forget, leave or change their minds.
Re:Tech time lines by Abstrackt · 2012-12-20 02:40 · Score: 1

That explains why the calculation took so much longer than expected.

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They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance. - Terry Pratchett

WAGS by Grashnak · 2012-12-19 09:08 · Score: 3, Informative

'Why are so many crowdfunded projects blowing their deadlines? "

Because most tech timelines barely qualify as even Wild Ass Guesses?

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Life needs more saving throws.

Re:WAGS by Macrat · 2012-12-19 09:51 · Score: 1

Because most tech timelines barely qualify as even Wild Ass Guesses?
Especially when no one technical is involved in the guess.

I know the answer... by 3seas · 2012-12-19 09:09 · Score: 1

Wow, we got our funding.... lets party....Oh the hang over.

Really its just a underestimation of required time to accomplish a project.
And this is to be expected and further more, ther really is no simple solution for the moment you say to add 1/4 -1/3 more time to a project, this will be taken into consideration and it'll still be calculated wrong. It takes experience and disapline

Re:I know the answer... by na1led · 2012-12-19 09:22 · Score: 1

They don't get paid till the project is complete. Should be an incentive to complete it on time.

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-- By all means let's be open-minded, but not so open-minded that our brains drop out.
Re:I know the answer... by gweihir · 2012-12-19 09:27 · Score: 2

And that breaks the model completely, as they will be back into the clutches of other sources of financing. Like publishers that have messed up so many basically good products.

--
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Re:I know the answer... by Vintermann · 2012-12-19 10:01 · Score: 1

Hardly. Very few projects on Kickstarter are solely dependent on funds raised there. What is demanded is that the funds raised, along with other funds they have, should be enough to make the project happen. Almost always, they will have to sell the product to non-backers afterwards to recoup their costs.

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xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.

Your fault by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:10 · Score: 0

If you finance anything that is "not ready yet" and expect it will come out on time, it's really your fault.

There is a difference between preodering something on that follows established lines of getting into production (like an already produced TV show making the DVD release) and financing something that is not fully developed yet (most stuff on KS).

Delayed deadlines and even failed projects are part of the entire thing, that is the risk you take when you actually "finance" something.

Missed deadlines are not news. Failed projects are not news. People who play investor and then cry when stuff comes late or not at all are not news. Shut up and only come back when there is a significant number of KS projects being scams. The rest has to be filtered by blob that grows in your skull.

The better question is... by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:14 · Score: 0

...how many successfully funded Kickstarters do not deliver at all? What which categories are the best/worst offenders?

Most Projects Fail To Deliver On Time by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:15 · Score: 0

FTFY.

Better late than never by Hatta · 2012-12-19 09:15 · Score: 3, Insightful

Doesn't bother me one bit as long as they end up delivering.

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Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!

No, that's not the problem by Animats · 2012-12-19 09:17 · Score: 2

Volume production isn't the problem. Looking at the list of Kickstarter projects labelled "Where the *** is it?", many of them are games, or even just videos. Game and video "manufacturing" is trivial. There's no excuse for "BronyCon, the documentary" or the "Leisure Suit Larry" remake being far behind schedule. Not when each raised over half a million dollars.

Re:No, that's not the problem by na1led · 2012-12-19 09:26 · Score: 1

It's mostly borrowed money until the project is complete, so they don't get a dime from me until I receive the goods. It should be an incentive to complete it on time, as I'm sure the interest rates on those loans can't be cheap.

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-- By all means let's be open-minded, but not so open-minded that our brains drop out.
Re:No, that's not the problem by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:35 · Score: 0

Do you understand how kickstarter works? You pay and they collect the money up front.
Re:No, that's not the problem by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 10:02 · Score: 1

It's mostly borrowed money until the project is complete, so they don't get a dime from me until I receive the goods. It should be an incentive to complete it on time, as I'm sure the interest rates on those loans can't be cheap.
That's at least the second time you suggested that in this article's comments and you still don't get what Kickstarter's purpose is. What's more, the third or fourth times you suggest it, you still won't get it.
What Kickstarter is there for is to crowdsource the funds to actually make things in the first place. You know, paying developers, paying for artists, paying for materials, paying the creators so they don't have to carry a second job and delay the release of the project even further, that sort. Theory is, it directly puts the end customers in the place of the venture capitalists that normally do that sort of thing, removing a middleman who may not care about the end product and just wants his/her cut of the profits, if they even agree to fund them in the first place (fun fact: Despite very loud public demand from a subculture, venture capitalists generally don't like to fund things without mass appeal and near-guaranteed profit to them!).
What you're suggesting instead is to set up some bounty for completing the project, assuming all those icky "development costs"* that happen between bragging about a bounty and making a final product just magically vanish somehow. Meaning that the creators still need to get money for development and such from somewhere, and that somewhere isn't you or the public. So they still have to seek out said funding anyway (or cancel) and quite frankly aren't beholden to you for anything since you're clearly not helping at all, which brings everything back around to the whims of the venture capitalists who may not care about the end product and just want a cut of the profits.
*: "Development" being a word not solely restricted to software in this case.
Re:No, that's not the problem by westlake · 2012-12-19 18:42 · Score: 1

Game and video "manufacturing" is trivial.
Says the geek posting to Slashdot and not on the team developing "Bioshock: Infinite."
Re:No, that's not the problem by Animats · 2012-12-20 06:43 · Score: 1

"Manufacturing" means producing disks and boxes, or setting up download servers. That's a routine operation.

Doesn't have anything to do with Kickstarter by ddd0004 · 2012-12-19 09:20 · Score: 5, Insightful

You can remove the word Kickstarter from that headline and it is just as true.

What incentive? by DogDude · 2012-12-19 09:20 · Score: 1

Kickstarter is set up in a way that there's no incentive, at all, for anybody to do anything once they get the money. There's really not. Many times, I've considered creating a project that is an Open Source, Apple product related, DIY bullshit thing and just taking the money. Heck, I still might.

Kickstarter I believe, was either created by very naive, or very smart people who take advantage of the very naive people, or very stupid people.

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I don't respond to AC's.

Re:What incentive? by gweihir · 2012-12-19 09:26 · Score: 1

Well, what people on Kickstarter stake on this is their reputation. If you do what you say, you will just be a common fraudster without any reputation left.

--
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
Re:What incentive? by zhrike · 2012-12-19 09:47 · Score: 2

Many times, I've considered creating a project that is an Open Source, Apple product related, DIY bullshit thing and just taking the money. Heck, I still might.
Congratulations. You're a dick.
Kickstarter is set up in a way that there's no incentive, at all, for anybody to do anything once they get the money.
Except integrity.
Re:What incentive? by DogDude · 2012-12-19 09:57 · Score: 1

That's a rotten incentive. Identities can be faked easily. And of course, some people (myself included), couldn't give a flying shit about their "reputation".

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I don't respond to AC's.
Re:What incentive? by Vintermann · 2012-12-19 10:09 · Score: 1

Yeah yeah clever guy, I'm sure you could be a successful fraudster if you wanted to - although quite possibly, you'd fail to reach your target like most Kickstarter projects. I bet you and I both could steal credit cards too if we wanted to, it doesn't take much skill to be criminal jackasses.
Most Kickstarter projects deliver. A little late, most likely, but experienced backers count on that (and we also develop an idea about which projects are likely to be very late). It shouldn't happen with your economic model, yet it does! Clearly, something is wrong with reality... or your model.
Most successful kickstarter project starters say they'd do it again - and those that do, tend to hold their schedules better. Who would have though it - maybe the opportunity to keep making money is an incentive as well!

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xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
Re:What incentive? by taucross · 2012-12-19 10:25 · Score: 1

Congratulations, you're an evil person.

--
"In the absence of the ability to establish the attribute of truth they tried to establish the noble attributes."
Re:What incentive? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 10:51 · Score: 0

He's not evil. Any sufficiently large system based on trust is ultimately going to fail. If you set up the rules so that they can be gamed easily, you can't blame it on those who game them, it's your fault for setting them up that way.
Re:What incentive? by DogDude · 2012-12-19 11:36 · Score: 1

I bet you and I both could steal credit cards too if we wanted to, it doesn't take much skill to be criminal jackasses.

There's nothing criminal about bullshitting on Kickstarter, last I checked. Taking money from gullible people is only taking advantage of a broken system, not breaking the law.

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I don't respond to AC's.
Re:What incentive? by Vintermann · 2012-12-28 03:02 · Score: 1

Yes, there is. If an entrepreneur tries and fails (goes bankrupt) that is not illegal, but if he plans to fail, or not even try, that is fraud and illegal. Maybe you think that because Kickstarter itself assumes no liability it's different there? But that is wrong. Fraudulent project starters are still liable, and even Kickstarter itself will be in trouble if they host a project they know to be fraudulent,

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xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.

Deadlines != Estimate by codewarren · 2012-12-19 09:21 · Score: 1

The estimate on Kickstarter is not a promise. You estimate how long it might take. The reason you estimate is because it hasn't been done before. If it had... there wouldn't be a Kickstarter.

Re:Deadlines != Estimate by gl4ss · 2012-12-19 09:42 · Score: 1

difference between estimate and promise is pretty small, just matter of how the kickstarter uses his words.
most of the rewards are worded as promises.
though maybe kickstarter would need a new funding model option - half the money only on delivery.

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world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.

The others do that too or ship trash by gweihir · 2012-12-19 09:24 · Score: 1, Insightful

This is not a Kickstarter problem. If the late shippers actually ship quality, then Kickstarter may well have superior results. A simplistic "late=bad" does not cut it.

--
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.

Re:The others do that too or ship trash by Vintermann · 2012-12-19 10:13 · Score: 1

The header for this article says that "Sixteen haven't even shipped yet", without mentioning how late they are (I know plenty of the top 50 most funded Kickstarter projects aren't scheduled to ship this year, and one is even scheduled for 2014 as I recall). They're really trying to force the conclusion "OMG Kickstarter is such a scam!!1!!" down our throats.

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xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
Re:The others do that too or ship trash by gweihir · 2012-12-20 20:45 · Score: 1

Indeed. I expect investing in any reasonable Kickstarter project does not carry more risk than buying a finished game in a store. I had several highly praised things (by an apparently more and more corrupt gaming press) that just were not fun to play. Given that they did cost something like 3x what the equivalent on Kickstarter costs, even if 2 of 3 projects I am currently backing fail, I will be ahead.
What people fail to realize is that on Kickstarter, you invest in the possibility of something you want. A certain percentage of failure is perfectly acceptable, as without Kickstarter none of these would ever be created.

--
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.

Purpose? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:31 · Score: 0

I kind of thought KS was a way to get a project off the ground. There really needs to be a way to encourage people to put a cap on their investment. When they shoot for $20K and get over $1M they have to immediately go into higher production manufacturing than they initially planned. And that means longer start up time. If they had been able to keep to their initial quantity there's a much better chance they would meet their date. It's like skipping your initial capitalization and going straight to round 2 or 3. It is just that much harder.

Take my money! by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:40 · Score: 0

All the uncertainty and risk of being a venture capitalist, with none of the upside if they make it big? Sign me up!

Misleading headline by jandrese · 2012-12-19 09:42 · Score: 1

So the study focused on the "most funded" Kickstarters, you know, the ones that planned to make 1,000 widgets and suddenly had to make 50,000. It should be no surprise at all if they failed to meet their original deadline, they probably had to change manufacturing facilities and potentially even the design of their product to handle that much capacity. Anybody can tell you that a change in the requirements for a project will affect the timeline. Maybe Kickstarter could be better about asking the developers what their timeline would look like if they got 10x or 100x their funding target, but I'd wager that it would be a wild ass guess most of the time.

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I read the internet for the articles.

FTFY by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 09:44 · Score: 0

Most Projects Fail To Deliver On Time.

Yes, but... by roc97007 · 2012-12-19 09:44 · Score: 3, Insightful

Most of anything fails to deliver on time. Precisely meeting delivery dates is overrated, if what you deliver is junk.

I strongly suspect that most product development doesn't deliver at all. It seems like Kickstart is doing much better than average in that respect.

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Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.

So? by thetoadwarrior · 2012-12-19 09:54 · Score: 1

Most start-ups fail. Everyone has ideas but they're not all good. If you're helping out some online beggar on kickstarter then you're probably not giving much money and therefore not losing much. Live with it, that's how it goes. It could be worse, you could be dumping a few million into some tech start-up that goes no where.

I think the fact that kickstarter is more like free money than if you were to go to a traditional investor means that of course people are going to be more lax with what they do with your money.

Re:So? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 14:53 · Score: 0

While there is going to be a good amount of failure in projects. Most should succeed to some level. They are not startups, they are delivering something and while delays are acceptable to an extent. better planning and a realistic deadline should be inherent in the plan

Extra features cause slip by ryanmcdonough · 2012-12-19 09:58 · Score: 1

The worst thing I find, mostly with games on Kickstarter is that they set an initial goal £100,000 for example and then they hit it, within two days. So then they set these stretch goals and go "well at £200,000 we will add air combat to this game", "wow £300,000 awesome, now we will add naval...you guys don't mind us adding an extra 2 months to development right?" Wrong, don't estimate 8 months then when you get more push it further back. Some of these games (Elite for example) is set to ship March 2014, that's over a year away and you're expecting me to pop £40 out now for a game I may or may not see in 15 months, what is my incentive here other than I may get a £2 discount on a game in the future.

Re:Extra features cause slip by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-20 05:03 · Score: 0

Some of these games (Elite for example) is set to ship March 2014, that's over a year away and you're expecting me to pop £40 out now for a game I may or may not see in 15 months, what is my incentive here other than I may get a £2 discount on a game in the future.
The possibility that they make a game you like at all? If they make Turd Burglar and your don't want it you don't have to pay. Maybe it's a flop. If they then OFFER to Make Turd Burglar 2, the Revenge of Keopectate for $100 from a thousand people, despite the disasterous sales of TB1, if you are one of the thousand people who were willing pay $100 for a piece of shit, that's the only way you get your sequel.

Hexbright by n2505d · 2012-12-19 10:03 · Score: 1

I am holding my Hexbright now! Admittedly, I went into this with rather low expectations knowing how difficult product development can be. I thought it was interesting, fond memories of the original Battebots and it was my first Kickstarter support; probably not the best criteria for investments... Product exceeded my expectation.

Re:Hexbright by TechyImmigrant · 2012-12-19 10:12 · Score: 1

Still waiting for mine. But its due any day now. I might pop out to the mailbox and see.

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I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.

Annoying Financial Backers by makoto149 · 2012-12-19 10:17 · Score: 1

Once somebody opens their checkbook they think their opinion matters or something. They should just pretend the developers are like children and just give them money with no expectations.

The Headline is Wrong [Re:Just Kickstarter???] by Geoffrey.landis · 2012-12-19 10:22 · Score: 1

But here's the thing. The survey specifically focused on projects that exceeded their expected budgets....

Exactly.

The headline significantly mis-states the conclusions that can be drawn from the text. The headline says "Most Kickstarter Projects...", while the actual study only looked at "the top 50 most-funded Kickstarter projects".

That demonstrates nothing about most projects.

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http://www.geoffreylandis.com

Re:The Headline is Wrong [Re:Just Kickstarter???] by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 10:48 · Score: 0

those are the most likely to get shit done *and* get it done on time. and most of them didn't.
Re:The Headline is Wrong [Re:Just Kickstarter???] by Samantha+Wright · 2012-12-19 11:36 · Score: 1

They could (and should) be busy overdelivering, though. Which was my point.

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Bio questions? Ask me to start a Q&A journal. Computer analogies available for most topics!
Re:The Headline is Wrong [Re:Just Kickstarter???] by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 12:28 · Score: 0

but they arent. so they should just deliver what they said when they said they would, who cares about other stuff.
Re:The Headline is Wrong [Re:Just Kickstarter???] by Samantha+Wright · 2012-12-19 13:04 · Score: 1

RTFAing reveals they're all just inexperienced and overly optimistic about schedules. Surprise, surprise.

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Bio questions? Ask me to start a Q&A journal. Computer analogies available for most topics!

The Example they give by wisnoskij · 2012-12-19 10:32 · Score: 1

Of getting way more money then they originally planned and having to expand the scope accordingly is not a missed deadline. You simply cannot call that a missed deadline, unless the developers specifically say that they will still hit the deadline well after it is obvious how much more money they have to spend developing the game.

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Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.

simple solution by j2.718ff · 2012-12-19 10:40 · Score: 1

Is there a way to limit the number of backers allowed to back a project? If not, there should be.

Let's say I'm an inventor. I can easily build 1,000 of my widgets in a month. The only problem is I don't have enough funds to buy the components. So I get a bunch of packers, problem solved. But then I get so many backers that I need to produce 10,000 widgets in a month. That means I need to hire help to assemble them. My skill is in inventing -- I don't know how to find the best workers. I don't know how to train them well.

Ideally, funding should stop after I've reached the 1,000 widgets in a month. After a month of successfully making widgets, I should have enough profit to invest in making more (assuming demand exists). Then I can start looking into what I need to do in order to grow my production facility. I should not have to deal with these huge growing pains at the very start of it all. That can easily lead to a premature failure.

Isn't this to be expected? Kickstarter is ~VC by Khopesh · 2012-12-19 10:41 · Score: 1

Kickstarter is merely crowdsourced venture capital. The whole philosophy behind venture capital is high risk, high reward. Most investments fail but a few make enough profit to overcome the others' losses. Some time in the 2000s dot-com bubble, the VC expectations I heard were one in fourteen investments should average 20x growth (while 14x growth would roughly break even), though I don't know how many investments such a group would have going concurrently (more would permit more variance).

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Use my userscript to add story images to Slashdot. There's no going back.

So essentially they are *too* successful. by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 10:51 · Score: 0

That's what that says.

I smell a business in doing the managing part for those projects. But *not* in the disgusting Content Mafia style, where the Mafia is in power and you're serving them. Instead now, *you* must be in power, and management is simply a service. A manager is not the boss anymore. He's a mere employee, doing a service, and getting paid for it.

Of course they do. by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 11:03 · Score: 0

Most kickstarter projects are about grabbing money. Once they have money they no longer feel the need to finish the product or feel as pressured to finish it. Especially now that kickstarter is so famous people go to it in droves looking for some money and nothing else. So a lot of people or companies are there just for some easy cash.

And the problem with kickstarter, they dont have a thing, they just beg for money from strangers with promises of a product of undetermined quality from an unproven developer that has no refund policy, no accountability, no warranty and no support in the vast majority of the products. Why would they worry about getting the product out on time or even make it worth a shit when they get all the money upfront?

If I am a paying customer in this I want my product right and on time because its high risk for me. If I buy something from an established company and they are late with the product thats fine because I can hold them accountable and get either my product or money back and in the end be happy one way or another. But if I give some jackass in his basement 50 bucks for something I want it on time because if he is late then it makes me worry I wasted my money.

If you fund kickstarter projects then youre a fool because only a very small percentage of them are worthwhile, the majority are just people wanting some money because the economy sucks and the worse it gets the more people will flock to kickstarter.

I suppose I'm missing the point of Kickstarter. by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 11:04 · Score: 0

You give money to a cause or project or group, and in return you get....NOTHING! No stake, no profit sharing, no promise of a product.

Am I missing something here?

FTFY by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 11:33 · Score: 0

Most Projects Fail To Deliver On Time

FTFY

Loosely organized, barely funded projects LATE? by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 11:49 · Score: 0

In other news, dog chases cat.

because there's zero consumer protection by SuperBanana · 2012-12-19 11:59 · Score: 1

Ask anyone into cars about "group buys" and they'll probably groan and tell you at least one horror story. Kickstarter projects fail to deliver because there's no auditing, no consumer protection, nothing. If the whole thing folds, you're FUCKED. Don't spend anything on kickstarter that you're not completely ok with never seeing again - and view any project, even the basic idea, with extreme skepticism. Our free market system by and large works. If you've got an amazing idea, it should be easy to attract some sort of money or you'll be driven to figure out a way to make it happen - and if you've dotted your i's and crossed your t's, you'll end up with some sort of loan or investment. Kickstarter subverts that, and lets any asshole with a half-baked idea throw it up on the wall for the cost of an hour or two with iMovie and their iPhone.

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Please help metamoderate.

Hofstadter's Law by Just+Brew+It! · 2012-12-19 12:00 · Score: 1

"It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law."

hmmmmmm by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 12:19 · Score: 0

How about we change the title of this thread to read "Most projects fail to delvier ontime"

I can't believe this is news to anyone by Spiked_Three · 2012-12-19 12:21 · Score: 1

It certainly is how I've seen it taught in college. Wait until the last second to do anything, then make an excuse when your late.

And at every company I have worked for as well.

Is it even news that the new business model is lie, cheat and steal?

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slashdot troll = you make a compelling argument I do not like the implications of.

Not News by pubwvj · 2012-12-19 13:31 · Score: 1

This is not news. Only people who have never created would think that everything can be scheduled. The reality is things take longer and hurdles come up. That is part of the creative process of bringing products to market. If you want on-time-shipping then stick with stuff you can go to the store and pick off the shelf. Kickstarter is about innovation and creating new things. Dose of reality.

Funding slows things down by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 13:47 · Score: 0

The more funding a project gets the more features they promise to implement and the later the project is released

Why? It's obvious by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 13:47 · Score: 0

They are too excited about delivering (which is good) but not taking into account the problems they WILL run into.

Whenever you start a project you expect everything to just go right and encounter no setbacks. That isn't the real world.

Whatever you think it will take, add 1/3-1/2 more time, easily.

What's More Surprising by Greyfox · 2012-12-19 14:52 · Score: 1

Is that only 32 percent of the projects failed (or at least haven't shipped yet,) versus around 2/3rds of the IT projects that corporations start. Maybe corporations should use the kickstarter model to fund their internal projects...

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I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

Please fund my... by ApplePy · 2012-12-19 15:45 · Score: 1

... Kickstarter project to research why Kickstarter projects don't live up to expectations!

We anticipate results by early next week. Donate $50 or more and we'll give you twice as many!

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That I'm right, and you don't like it, doesn't mean I'm a troll.

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Re:Isn't this to be expected? Kickstarter is ~VC by jrumney · 2012-12-19 17:09 · Score: 1

I think people have a different expectation of Kickstarter, because it is different than VC. While VC is high risk, high reward, Kickstarter is mostly high risk, low reward. The investors don't have visibility on the risk, so their expecations are set based on the reward.

Instead of looking at who is late on delivery ... by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-19 17:26 · Score: 0

... what about showing how many EVER deliver anything.

Most Kickstart projects never deliver what they promise. They have a very high rate of SCAMS.

And so do private businesses by Maxo-Texas · 2012-12-19 19:24 · Score: 1

I've worked for a company that spent close to an extra billion dollars and was only 5% along it's schedule when it was supposed to be 100% complete.

And it's happened many times with SAP installations.

Another cause for KS being late may be that they don't cut scope/cost/quality to make the deadline (as companies often do). Many private companies deliver crap, on time- or late- and over budget- but it was time to ship it so it went.

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She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.

No kidding by Sycraft-fu · 2012-12-19 19:58 · Score: 1

I think about at work how long it has been going down the road of migrating from one domain to another. I won't bore you all with the details but I work at a university and we need to move from a domain we are using now to another one.

The process has taken years for all kinds of reasons. Politics of the "I'm an important person and I don't wanna play along," kind. Lack of funds for needed hardware/software. Waiting on central efforts to get a unified solution (to reduce costs) only to have that fail.

Now there was no estimated date in this case but still it illustrates the problem well. It is the kind of thing, that in a theoretical world where everything is perfect, would take a couple weeks, maybe a month. However in the real world it has dragged on for years. Even having worked in the environment and being familiar with the politics and all that shit I wouldn't have estimated this long.

It is life, it happens. The only time you'll find a timeline that is likely to be stuck to (and then in no way guaranteed) is if the problem is extremely well defined and the resources are all provided up front.

Common Sense 101 MIA by epine · 2012-12-19 22:23 · Score: 4, Interesting

Where have all the smart people gone? I've read several dozen posts and not one has pointed out that the problem of promising a scalar delivery date before determining subscription level can't possibly optimize over a metric of on-time delivery.

Kickstarter projects should be providing an estimated delivery date as a function of subscription level, where x1 (or less) is the number most projects now promote, but you also have numbers for x3, x10, x30, and x100. Out my ass, I'd guess you could fit a curve to existing Kickstarter data that would add six weeks to the deadline for each multiple of 3 in oversubscription level.

The Pebble project actually hit x100, so a realistic ship date in my mind might be 4x6=24 weeks later than the originally promised early fall delivery date.

The positive influence of having substantially greater funds to deploy (Pebble hired more people than originally planned) is wiped out and then some by the hugely increased risk level. If Pebble manufactures 85,000 watches, ships most of them out immediately, then discovers that 20% of the devices fail in under three months due to faulty moisture control or creeping solder whiskers, they might as well just blow the hole thing up.

Who is going to show up with $2,000,000 to bail them out of a huge PR fiasco?

One could say that the Pebble originally promised is late. Or one could say that the originally promised Pebble will never ship because it no longer exists. I tend to take the second view. The Pebble that ships 6 months downstream of the delivery date promoted during the funding cycle is not the same device. The manufacturing standards are higher, the QA standards are higher, additional features have been added (higher level BT standard, additional waterproofing), and the development environment should be further along (though I haven't seen any tangible evidence of this as yet).

The whole problem here begins with the phrase "The Pebble". "The Pebble" people thought they were buying/endorsing ceased to exist as the subscription level climbed toward the first $1,000,000 (the x10 subscription level). Pebble went deep into the regime of "a Pebble" from a spectrum of possible Pebble delivery scenarios.

The Pebble promoted was supposed to be manufactured in the S.F. region. The Pebble delivered will have been manufactured off shore in China. Until the subscription level was determined, we were truthfully talking about a Pebble modulo volume and risk. There's not even any point in totting up on-time delivery statistics without confronting the central fiction of the Kickstarter model.

When I signed up mid-snowball I viewed it as a quantum superposition of two entrepreneurial stories: A) a relatively low volume run with mid grade QA, immature tools, and a small target market; B) a high volume run with high volume QA standards, somewhat mature tools, and a moderately large target market for app developers.

The story was acceptable to me, either way. One watch, two stories. Kickstarter is not a single story engagement, even if the convention holds that only one of these stories is mentioned during project promotion.

A person has to be in some profound eigenstate of stupid, uniformed, myopic, deluded, distracted, self-serving, or litigious to fail to figure this out.

You've obviously never worked for the government by Chibi+Merrow · 2012-12-20 00:28 · Score: 1

Nothing else to add, really.

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Maxim: People cannot follow directions.
Increases in truth directly with the length of time spent explaining them

Because most people aren't project managers? by nhat11 · 2012-12-20 00:31 · Score: 1

Most people don't realize how difficult it is to manage and keep key milestones being hit on time. It takes a lot of resource and planning to make sure a project goes through the 5 phases of a project successfully or even at all.

Re:Isn't this to be expected? Kickstarter is ~VC by RKThoadan · 2012-12-20 01:33 · Score: 1

Like any investment there are different amounts of risk/reward to be found on kickstarter. Video games and new products are definitely the highest risk.

Comics, board games, and some arts projects are typically very low risk. The core product for the Order of the Stick reprint just required Rich to send money to his printer and tell them to reprint, and those came out pretty much on time.

Most board games are already in a playable form by the time they kick-start and several already have a review from Dice Tower or someone from board game geek. They usually just need more artwork and better quality pieces. A print-and-play version is frequently one of the awards and is often immediately available. There are scads of custom decks of cards out there that shouldn't be problematic at all. The US Playing Card Company has to absolutely love Kickstarter.

I am a bit confused by how cnn categorized the projects. Castle Story and Ogre aren't complete yet, but both should be out early next year. Something that was projected for last quarter of this year that looks very likely to make the first quarter of next year doesn't qualify as "Where the ^%$# is it!?" to me.

Sample Set by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-20 04:12 · Score: 0

Given that the timeline issues were caused by "raising vastly more money than they anticipated", it seems like looking at the "top 50 most-funded Kickstarter projects" is a skewed sample set...

Penny Arcade Kickstarter Scam by Anonymous Coward · 2012-12-20 11:14 · Score: 0

Penny Arcade raised $524,144 on August 15 with the promise that they would remove Ads from their homepage.

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/pennyarcade/penny-arcade-sells-out

Homepage still has Ads.

http://www.penny-arcade.com/

How hard is it to remove Ads from your homepage?

Re:Penny Arcade Kickstarter Scam by the+Gray+Mouser · 2012-12-20 11:28 · Score: 1

Depends entirely on the contracts Penny Arcade signed with the ad providers.
This may be a case of the left hand not knowing what the right is doing...

Why not stick to the plan and keep the profit? by the+Gray+Mouser · 2012-12-20 11:27 · Score: 1

From the summary, it's the influx of extra money that throws a wrench into the works.

Stick to the plan, deliver what was promised - and only what was promised, and pocket any change left over.

You don't even need a step 3 to Profit!

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Most Kickstarter Projects Fail To Deliver On Time

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