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NOAA Report: World Labor Capacity Dropping Because of Increased Temperatures
pigrabbitbear writes with a story about some interesting possible effects of Global Warming. From the article: "It's a good thing that robots are stealing our jobs, because in about thirty-five years, nobody in their right mind is going to want to do them. Scientists from NOAA just published a report ... that details how a warming climate impacts the way we work, and the results are pretty clear — we do less of it. NOAA discovered that over the last 60 years, the hotter, wetter climate has decreased human labor capacity by 10%. And it projects that by 2050, that number will double."
it is just too hot ... I need my siesta break!
Global Warming is there anything it cannot do?
Is there anything bad in the world that is not caused by global warming?
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
"It's a good thing that robots are stealing our jobs, because in about thirty-five years, nobody in their right mind is going to want to do them. "
I don't want to do robots now. I mean some people in Japan might. But not me.
Talk about a study that has too many variables to conclude something so major... How did they eliminate the effect of today's technology and culture on work ethic and demand? Among the thousands of other variables...
5 degrees isn't going to reduce overall labor by 5%, let alone 10%. And the 10% is considered with far less than 5 degrees in increased temperature.
Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.
Because this is after all, just a projection based on computer models. And we know how well they work "out of sample."
then when the east river in NYC freezes during winter and the temps are so bitter cold that the hipster idiots will go crazy and blame it on global warming
and then the intelligent people can point out that this is completely normal. it used to happen in the 1800's all the time before global warming screwed things up with a warmer winter
Man doesn't understand report, calls it 'dumb'. News at 11.
Alternatively:
Yeah, it's the report that's dumb~
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it is just too hot ... I need my siesta break!
After reading, I see that whoever did these studies, never seen a Mexican construction crew in August here in Georgia - in 100+ heat.
And they got their work done well and on time.
A warmer climate means more food, simpler shelters, and lower energy costs. (Or they would be, without air conditioning, which is a luxury in all but the hottest places.) Where it snows, everything is more expensive, so people have to work more than they would otherwise. From a labor perspective, global warming will bring about freedom from slavery.
Up to a limit yes.
Visit a nice tropical nation and look around vs North America or Northern Europe.
In one climate you can survive without any effort, in the other you will work or die outside in the winter.
Obviously once it gets cold enough that also impacts how much work can get done since now all energy must go into just not freezing to death.
Humans will continue to adapt and advance, and productivity will continue to increase...barring massive government intervention.
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
Rebuttal: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/
How else can they justify the 70+ Billion dollars on climate change research?
Got to produce reports!
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
What ever happened to "correlation does not mean causality?" I mean, I get more and more tired as the day goes on, and... I think it's because the sun is in the sky.
Beer, now there's a temporary solution -- Homer Jay S.
I thought the whole goal of inventing machines was to make jobs easier for human beings.
Even if there is some valid conjecture behind this science, since the beginning of time, man has invented tools and machines to make jobs less difficult for man to do, thus decreasing the labor. And I know that when I don't have to work as hard, I enjoy lounging on a beach chair in a bikini soaking up the warmer weather and relaxing.
There is much more to all of this I would believe. The world's population has increased tremendously and now there are more people and less work to be done, and I'd gather that a majority of the world's population is located in warmer climate areas, this conclusion would appear to me to be conjecture. ...but this is just my take on it...just an observation.
Life takes interesting turns, but the most interest is when you're off the beaten path.
I understand that the topics won't be able to adapt to the loss of outdoor working days by time shifting them to the winter, but it seems to be a pretty even swap for the temperate climates.
Also, it seems that in cold climates like Canada and Scandinavia, they will have a net gain of outside work days.
Or am I being too optimistic?
Yes, too optimistic. Warming is not a "swap "- global warming is destabilising the climate, leading to more violent ups-and-downs, like hurricanes and blizzards. In the case of Scandinavia, a global warming could mean constant heavy rains, which reduces the outside work days a lot. In Canada, warming can mean violent ice storms and draughts. It is not so much the warm peaks that are the problem but that the average temperature is changing and causing temperatures to be distributed differently.
Tell your friends about xenu.net
Maybe the amount of work actually done in the past 60 years has gone down because of union regulations (amount of time you are able to work a day, number of breaks required to give workers), regulations against child labor, regulation of minors in the workforce, and the possibility that a lot of jobs in the past 60 years (not all mind you) have turned from factories and physical labor to offices. Many occupations have also modernized and mechanized, increasing production and decreasing the need for physical labor.
While a 1-3 degree difference in temperatures (or even 5-10 degrees if you want to get drastic) is enough to cause global enviornmental issues, I doubt that anyone is going to say "Shoot, its 73 today whereas 60 years ago it was 70, Oh, its just too hot, I can't work today". "Oh, its summer in Phoenix, its 110 today instead of 107 it was 60 years ago on this day, oh, I just can't do anything".
Really really stupid corrolation.
That is like saying the number of viewers of the Today Show has increaded substantially over the past 60 years, so we are going to say that The Today Show has got to be the most awesome show on television, and take into no account the number of households who have bought televisions in the past 60 years, the population growth, or even comparing it to the actual percentage of total viewers now versus then.
In mediterranean countries they mitigate against this by working in the early morning, sleeping for the hottest part of the day, and working until very late evening. Two four-hour sleeps suits hot climates much better than one eight hour one. I wouldn't be surprised if in a much hotter climate an 8-hour sleep in daylight and working through the night made more sense
"Even IPCC head Pachauri admits [wattsupwiththat.com] no warming for 17 years."
false. That has been thoroughly debunked.
It amuses me..angers really, that someone would dispose of the work from 1000's of experts from around the globe, through out all the collected data, but trust some yahoo website.
Do you even know how to think?
At this stage in out body of knowledge about this issue, people lie you are right up there with anti-vaccers, 911 conspiracy cranks and bigfoot believers.
The worse part is that we can still do something about it pretty cheaply, all thing considered, but it gets more expensive every year.
Out of the last 10 years, 9 of them have been the warmest on record. Yes, even after homogenization of the data sets.
That's not debatable. It's a fact.
The 10th one was in 98.
17 of the top 20 warmest were in the last 20 years.
start hear.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
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Somebody should invent some way to cool the air down.
Moron. It's not about office workers. RTFA.
Let me know when you can aircondition a farm or construction site.
If only there was a paper explaining it~
Did you read the paper? if so please show me where it's rubbish. If not, STFU and let us adults who have read the paper talk about it, m'kay?
. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications4, 5, 6 is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis7 and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections8, 9, 10 with industrial4 and military5 guidelines for an acclimated individual’s occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)"
SO they took known data involving sustaining labour under heat stressed and applied it to the climate change.
They aren't making data up.
YOU otoh are claiming an increase in temperature does not effect production based on..what, your ass?
please, tell me, specifically, what you find wrong with the report:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate1827-s1.pdf
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
The statistic mentioned by /. in their synopsis is very misleading. It implies (to me at least) that world total labor capacity has decreased by 10%, but the NOAA study is just stating that when it is hot out, people tend to be 10% less productive.
If that's true, I have some nifty data to throw in.......
When temperatures exceed a certain limit with humidity at a certain point (dewpoint), they issue a Heat Advisory or Heat Warning. In each warning, they advise people to drink lots of water and to, GASP, take more breaks in the shade!
Wait, so are they saying that their warnings are actually working?
Oh, wait, that only includes the U.S. My central logic processor is overloading and using adrenaline to cool. This sort of report pisses me off! lol
Are we looking at the same article? The one I'm looking at has graphs - including NOAA graphs - that support the GP's point that mean temperatures peaked about 2003 and even dropped a bit in the past couple of years.
I was ready to agree with you, but you've actually given me pause for thought.
If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
Puerto Rico is not a country. It is a territory of the United States. It has some fringe elements who want to establish an independent country, perhaps like a few fringe elements in the American Southeast who want still want to secede in the Civil War fashion. Some people want Puerto Rico to become the 51st state, but this is also somewhat unlikely since it is an income tax haven for its wealthiest residents.
After comparing metrics from Midwest USA to Southern USA, I would say it's dead on.
Obviously once it gets cold enough that also impacts how much work can get done since now all energy must go into just not freezing to death.
Sounds like an office building I used to work in.
They base their finding on a climate model which like most climate models, are always inaccurate.
They also assume that at these temperatures people would be working the same hours. They could easily work at night and since there is a push with the smart grid to pay for the time of use, working at non-peak hours would save costs on energy.
This is nothing but pure speculation based on an unproven hypothetical situation to drive a political agenda. Welcome to modern science.
If you have something that you dont want anyone to know, maybe you shouldnt be doing it in the first place -Eric Schmidt
Slavery ended in NY state in 1827, most buildings we have today were built far later. DC was years later, but again most buildings are simply not that old.
Lots of warm nations had slavery.
Who pays for crap like this?
Seeing as the study was produced by NOAA, we do. With sequestration in the news, I wonder how many autistic children with hearing aids could have been vaccinated with the money that was spent on this study.
When temperatures exceed a certain limit with humidity at a certain point (dewpoint), they issue a Heat Advisory or Heat Warning. In each warning, they advise people to drink lots of water and to, GASP, take more breaks in the shade!
And when you're taking more breaks, you're doing less work. If you spend 10% more of your time drinking water or taking breaks, you think that might have an effect on your productivity? If you don't do those things and you collapse from heatstroke, do you think that might have an effect on your productivity?
Read up on the history of United Fruit if you want to know about heat and labor.
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
That won't stop the ass fucking, it will just change the texture of the lube.
"despite the bad economy there is work available"
There might be work available in Texas but that doesn't mean there is work available everywhere.
I had to make an emergency still unemployed relocation across the country from FL to NM because it took a year to get a crappy Job in FL (bottom level retail crappy) and despite having no kids and relocating to the cheapest apartment I could find and cutting all possible costs that job didn't pay enough to keep afloat. After the move I was amazed when applying for positions actually resulted in responses again and had no problem getting not just a crappy job but an excellent position in my chosen profession.
Yeah, especially since he's dumping heat into the core.
That's one hot dude.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
Dude, the difference is SLAVERY. All large civilizations are built on the backs of slaves...
Not, they aren't; it may be PC to say so, but it's just not true. No large modern civilization was built mainly on slavery, because slavery is just not efficient and productive enough. It's risky and expensive to educate slaves, so you can't build serious industrial capacity on slavery, their mobility as a workforce is minimal, you get lots of extra expenses for security, not to mention motivation.
Even in America, where slavery was much more prevalent and lasted more than in most other world powers, the productivity of the industrialized North (based mostly on immigrant labor) was far ahead of the productivity of the slave-owning South. Look at the 1850 census, especially here http://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/1850c-06.pdf (table CXCV, on page 11) to see how the gross manufacturing production of non-slaveholding states dwarfs the GP of slave-holding states. Though the difference isn't as great, the agricultural production (http://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/1850c-05.pdf) AND productivity was also larger in the North.
Of course, this doesn't mean the slaves didn't contribute, or had it easy, but, if you really want America to have been build on somebody's back, that back would belong to the immigrant laborer.