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Using Kickstarter Data To Predict Ubuntu Edge's Success

First time accepted submitter Jason Waddell writes "According to Kickstarter's historic backing data, crowdfunding follows a very predictable pattern: a strong opening, a mid-campaign 'dead zone', and a small resurgence at the end of the campaign. We combine Kickstarter's trends with the Ubuntu Edge Indiegogo crowdfunding data to forecast whether the innovative Ubuntu phone will reach its $32 million campaign goal."

13 of 113 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Who the hell wants an Ubuntu phone? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The same mint that is based on Ubuntu?

  2. Re:Waiting for MS shills to troll this article by Stormwatch · · Score: 2

    Why should they bother? Linux fans are perfectly capable of bashing Canonical on their own.

  3. Short form: they won't make it by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 4, Informative

    Talk about click bait. Can the topic header be edited after posting to save everyone having to waste their time?

  4. Re: slashdot effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    There is no slashdot effect for at least 5 years now. Slashdot's peak came and went 6-7 years ago. Why do you think the old names in management left? Stories usually easily got 100+ comments are now down to double digits. Call it the reddit effect if anything.

    http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=slashdot&cmpt=q

  5. Re:Who the hell wants an Ubuntu phone? by Windwraith · · Score: 4, Informative

    Are you aware of what you complain about? Unity is not Ubuntu, it's just the default window manager. You can change it at will, no impediments at all.
    And, an ubuntu phone would give you almost as much power as Mint does because the insides are pretty much the same.
    So...what are you complaining about again?

  6. executive summary: by gbjbaanb · · Score: 2

    If you didn't want to RTFA, it says they project it'll get somewhere between $18 to $22 million of the requested $32m.

    (which ids damn good, $20m of real people's cash. Imagine what could happen if Google, Microsoft or Yahoo stopped buying stupid internet companies for many $billion and spent a fraction on stuff like this - or gave it to these kickstarters!)

    1. Re:executive summary: by Windwraith · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I've been following several ubuntu blogs and they got a ton of cash in mere days. Like you'd at times get updates with the $3K milestone and the $4K milestone in the same one-hour period.
      Besides, $18-22M is still a pretty kickass amount of money...and there is always the possibility of some larger sponsor kicking in.
      Personally, if I could afford it right now, I'd make sure to get myself one. I always wanted a linux phone with decent specs and without the risk of having to flash stuff everywhere and/or making clumsy chroots inside Android to have my favorite tools ready.

  7. Not many big projects to judge by by PhilHibbs · · Score: 2, Informative

    Elite: Dangerous looked the same as Ubuntu Edge's progress in the early stages, and it got funded.

    1. Re: Not many big projects to judge by by AvitarX · · Score: 3, Insightful

      No it didn't, it had a very normal progression from what I can tell. I assume in this graph the green is the average daily amount predicting the total earned. http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1461411552/elite-dangerous/#chart-exp-trend

      Compare that to the graph in the article with the diagonal line, see how successful projects generally stay above the line (the diagonal one in the article, the flat one in my link). The edge is already well below it unfortunatly, and is quite early in funding. It shouldn't dip below until quite late in a campaign of at all, and it should never get anywhere near as low as it is now.

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      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
  8. Re:Second article without link to the campaign by jlwaddell · · Score: 2

    Not sure why that happened, my submission had a link to the Indiegogo campaign: http://slashdot.org/submission/2846335/using-kickstarter-data-to-predict-ubuntu-edges-success

  9. Re:I'd back something worth backing by Tridus · · Score: 2

    The problems with Windows 8 go far beyond unhappy greybeards. Trying to point a mouse at invisible hot corners is just a fucking stupid idea for a desktop OS. Metro is a touch UI and it sucks with a mouse. It also sucks for multitasking productivity, multiple monitors, and really anything else that people doing real work are using a PC for.

    You sound like the people who think that "innovation" is always good, even when it's just change for the sake of change that actually makes the product less usable.

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    -- "So they told me that using the download page to download something was not something they anticipated." - Bill Gates
  10. Re:I'd back something worth backing by hAckz0r · · Score: 2
    "Windows has at the core barely changed. Apps from 15 years ago still work for the most part"

    And there in lie Microsoft's biggest security problem. Their refusal to jettison bad ideas only leaves them wide open to all kinds of security issues. Bad applications and old API's never get upgraded, patched, or fixed. They can apply all the band-aids they can think of (ASLR/SEP, etc.), but if you leave vulnerable hooks into your OS then its just a matter of time before someone comes along and tries the door knob.

    When Microsoft squeezes all the cash out of a technology, they simply move on, leaving the old cruft to fester. That old technology just languishes out in the field, completely unsupported, but still being used by people that don't even know any better. Those old API's are the foothold of many many BotNets world wide. There are times when its better just to pull the plug on a technology and to replace it with a better model, and what better time to do that than with an OS upgrade? But Microsoft chooses not to anger anyone allowing old and insecure programs and drivers to be moved forward as they themselves reinvent things, and thus the bloat-ware challenge comes to bare. There is no such thing as a lean and mean Windows box, unless you are smart enough to be able to build it yourself. Windows is the defacto playground for malware, because its so easy a target.

  11. Re: Who the hell wants an Ubuntu phone? by Immerman · · Score: 2

    Actually, since they moved the close button to be adjacent to the task bar it's no longer in a physical corner and loses the "infinitely wide" feature, which now belongs to the start button (which like with Win95 didn't seem to actually extend all the way into the corner so that it would actually work). Meanwhile the infinitely-large upper-right hand corner where everyone is accustomed to finding their close button is wasted by the non-responsive title bar.

    For me the real killer was that worthless sidebar - no option for a cluster of quick-launch icons for the half-dozen apps I use 90% of the time. Giant icons that make it impossible to use more than a handful of applications simultaneously without having to continuously scroll the taskbar (seriously?). And no option to just get rid of the damned thing if you can't stomach it. The complete lack of a program menu wasn't exactly a big selling point either.

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