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Using Kickstarter Data To Predict Ubuntu Edge's Success
First time accepted submitter Jason Waddell writes "According to Kickstarter's historic backing data, crowdfunding follows a very predictable pattern: a strong opening, a mid-campaign 'dead zone', and a small resurgence at the end of the campaign. We combine Kickstarter's trends with the Ubuntu Edge Indiegogo crowdfunding data to forecast whether the innovative Ubuntu phone will reach its $32 million campaign goal."
You can only measure failure with it !!
It won't succeed.
Even though it looks like they aren't going to make it, I really hope they do.
Maybe the slashdot effect will bring them donors while bringing their servers to a crawl.
They can't even make a decent desktop OS after years of trying.... I dumped it years ago for Mint.
or how clearly you can see your face's reflection in BG's penis head any time now, surprised it wasn't the opening FP.
can i carry it safely within my rectum inside a baggy?
Talk about click bait. Can the topic header be edited after posting to save everyone having to waste their time?
For all the impressive tech and design that went into Edge, there's one glaring technical problem that will prevent it from reaching the target - it doesn't have a picture of an apple on the back.
and OS/2 for my bung hole
What's in your wallet?
CRUNCHBANG!
their logo would make a grand toilet seat id love to pee and poo through while listening to a rap mix of that old black guy talking about ubuntu
i'd smear a little poo under my nose and salute an ubuntu flag wrung from toilet paper
This is the second time the Edge is being mentioned on slashdot, and its the second time there's no link to the actual campaign. I'm starting to sense a pattern...
If you didn't want to RTFA, it says they project it'll get somewhere between $18 to $22 million of the requested $32m.
(which ids damn good, $20m of real people's cash. Imagine what could happen if Google, Microsoft or Yahoo stopped buying stupid internet companies for many $billion and spent a fraction on stuff like this - or gave it to these kickstarters!)
Using averages for this sort of analysis is problematic because it ignores variance in the data based on factors such as total amount requested, how long KS promotes a project on the front page and via email, change in pricing for early bird via later funders, and type of project. Unless you take into account and look at the distribution of funding results you really have very little data to back a conclusion. Sure, the funding pattern is interesting but provides little insight on chances of success. You might as well simply say "XX% of KS projects fail to fund, so the UP has a YY% of success" and be done with it.
As a side note, one of the biggest problems with KS is how hard it is to find projects of interest, especially early on. Unless they search for phone will a significant percentage of KS users even know there is a project funding one?
I'm a consultant - I convert gibberish into cash-flow.
This project isn't it. I'd put money in it if they were to unify their efforts to make linux suck less and stop changing for the sake of change. Instead of blowing time making a phone they could have succeeded at making their desktop product rock solid and keep it that way. (Ubuntu has this thing about changing everything in every version far too much.)
If you don't agree with me, consider that Windows has at the core barely changed. Apps from 15 years ago still work for the most part, without much fuss. Documentation is basically the same, perhaps a few target directories have changed. This helps documentation people write in their struggles stay relevant. Linux on the other hand, appears to have no solid consistency between subversions sometimes, making documentation written a year ago for 10.0 not work with 10.1 or 10.2 so doing anything rapidly isn't as easy any longer. Why does this matter, you should know what you're doing! Well mom and pop shops, and one man IT shops don't have that kind of time to re-learn everything all the time.
The same mint that is based on Ubuntu?
What do you expect? People laugh about the "failed" GNU project and use Linux "instead". They decry Debian as a failure and use Ubuntu "instead". So why not lambast Ubuntu and promote Mint "instead"?
"This is further evidence that would-be backers are turned-off by Canonical’s incremental pricing structure."
I think it is rather proof that Shuttleworth and a lot of canonical people pumped in money early (persuaded, so to speak) to try and make it look successful, hoping it would generate momentum, hence an early surge. Real world demand is clearly actually much flatter, and I really doubt it has to do with "pricing structure" alone. At least that is the most likely reason for the unusual early shape of the curve, and the present flatlining.
Elite: Dangerous looked the same as Ubuntu Edge's progress in the early stages, and it got funded.
"This projection puts the Ubuntu Edge campaign on pace for a $18 million total."
That's apparently what people think the value of Edge is.
If Shuttleworth really wants the project to reach the goal they should be back to that price. It would mean a 22% loss for them, or about 7 millions. if the estimates in TFA are correct they will fall short about 10 millions instead.
They should have had another option below $10,000/-. Something like a $5000 option which includes 3 phones + and invite to the unveiling meeting. I think the $10,000/- with a single phone option won't be attractive to a lot of people.
The same mint that is based on Ubuntu?
Yes the same mint that decided NOT to impose a not-yet stable fucked up unity desktop environment to their end users, unlike up-stream Ubuntu which tries to make mandatory their toy project reinventing the UI. (Well for a certain definition of "mandate". It's still opensource)
Yes, also the same mint that, regarding the current biggest holywar on Linux - Wayland vs. Mir - will probably side with the rest of the echo-system including most Linux distros, including several other Ubuntu derivative and decide to support Wayland, like just anybody else, and not go for up-stream Ubuntu own NIH-Syndrome induced Mir. (and that's neglecting all the shit that Cannonical has done during the whole Mir/XMir debacle).
We've reached the point where, to get a decent experience, if you still want to use Ubuntu, is to install it, rip it most of the component which are ubuntu specific, and install other from 3rd party repositories (either PPAs or even straight from Debian). At that point, it's getting quicker and easier to just go for a Ubuntu derivative which is without all the bad bit and already contain what's needed instead. That's Mint.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
BSD culminated i8 Come on baby...and
From reading TFA, it seems that the headline should have been punctuated with a question mark, so Betteridge's Law could be applied identifying this effort as a failure.
"I believe in Karma. That means I can do bad things to people all day long and I assume they deserve it." : Dogbert
This campaign can be paid off immediately on any morning that Mark wakes up, yawns and decides to click donate in his own campaign.
We should learn what we need to know about issues, before we decide what we need to feel about them.
He's already said he will not make up any shorfall.
Sorry, but the idea of having a small foot print, small learning curve, media device has been pre-emptied by Google's chromecast. It makes a phone like this irrelevant for most people. Even though it's not even remotely the same type of device, it does feel the gap of missing use cases for most users. There is a very good reason why donations to the phone project stopped when chromecast came out. It's not a coincidence.
Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
We don't need to look at Kickstarter data. We already know that they stopped supporting it 5 years ago.
Ubuntu Edgy: b. 2006-10-26 d. 2008-04-25
Oh, you meant Ubuntu Edge? That sucker's going to be DoA.
Since this is a fixed rather than flexible funding campaign, all the donations will go back to funders when this inevitably fails.
If this had been a flexible campaign, Indiegogo could have netted a cool $720,000 (9% of $8 million). And Ubuntu probably could have pushed out their dual-booting monster with the help of its Carrier Advisory Group.
This is one BIG blunder by Ubuntu. Best case scenario, they rerun the campaign with a much lower goal, and probably get less than $8 million the second time, paying 4% of it to Indiegogo. Electronics products on crowdfunding sites have made do with less than $1 million and there are plenty of Chinese manufacturers ready to build whatever design you throw at them. So why did Ubuntu pick $32 million as a goal? Get out of town.
The same that gives you KUbuntu, XUbuntu, MythUbuntu etc etc?
BTW: KUbuntu is not sponsored by canonical anymore.
I think most people stay attached to gnome as a desktop, so when running away from core Ubuntu and other things directly made by Canonical, they mostly flee to Mint (which has gone at great lengths to make sure to keep a "Gnome 2.0"-like experience: with both Mate and Cinnamon).
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
What do you expect? People laugh about the "failed" GNU project and use Linux "instead". They decry Debian as a failure and use Ubuntu "instead". So why not lambast Ubuntu and promote Mint "instead"?
Well that's the beauty of opensource: you aren't forced to reject everything, you can fork, you can still keep the good bits and replace/improve the others.
You're not happy with how official GNU system has stalled in development? That after all these year it still lack a good kernel (Hurd)?
Well there is this nice kernel developed by a Swedish-speaking Finn. Keep the whole GNU userland and just replace the kernel.
Debian is a big collection of "almost absolutely anything opensource ported on almost any architecture Linux can run on". You like it for this, but you don't the ultra-slow development cycles of 'stable'? You find it too much difficult to configure/use? You would need a more stream-lined and better intergrated end-user experience? As much newbie-friendly as possible?
Well, you're not forced to throw it all out of the window and move to Mac OS X. You can actually move to Ubuntu. It's till (mostly) Debian underneeth, but canonical has made some efforts at a good paint-job over it making it much more accessible to non-hardcore-techies.
You're not very happy with the moral alignment of Canonical? That they don't actually contribute much upstream (whereas RedHad/Fedora and SuSE/OpenSuse have actual developper working on opensource hardware drivers, for example). That they tend to have a huge NIH-syndrom often leading to Ubuntu using their own inhouse less optimal solutions. That they completly fucked up the whole OSS ecosystem and managed to make every one hate them with the Wayland vs. Mir debacle ?
Well, you're not forced to leave the opensource world and run away from Canonical by moving back to Microsoft. You can simply switch to Mint. Still most of Ubuntu under the hood, but they are independent from canonical, they distance themselves from the whole Mir story (like other independent Ubuntu derivative - Kubuntu is doing the same, for example).
etc.
What you made fun of by basically point out a "Welcome the new boss, same as the old boss" situation, can also be seen as the ability, when you do not like something, is to move to something which is almost exactly the same, but with the bits you don't like replaced.
That wouldn't have been possible without opensource.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
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