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Using Kickstarter Data To Predict Ubuntu Edge's Success

First time accepted submitter Jason Waddell writes "According to Kickstarter's historic backing data, crowdfunding follows a very predictable pattern: a strong opening, a mid-campaign 'dead zone', and a small resurgence at the end of the campaign. We combine Kickstarter's trends with the Ubuntu Edge Indiegogo crowdfunding data to forecast whether the innovative Ubuntu phone will reach its $32 million campaign goal."

6 of 113 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Who the hell wants an Ubuntu phone? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The same mint that is based on Ubuntu?

  2. Short form: they won't make it by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 4, Informative

    Talk about click bait. Can the topic header be edited after posting to save everyone having to waste their time?

  3. Re: slashdot effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    There is no slashdot effect for at least 5 years now. Slashdot's peak came and went 6-7 years ago. Why do you think the old names in management left? Stories usually easily got 100+ comments are now down to double digits. Call it the reddit effect if anything.

    http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=slashdot&cmpt=q

  4. Re:Who the hell wants an Ubuntu phone? by Windwraith · · Score: 4, Informative

    Are you aware of what you complain about? Unity is not Ubuntu, it's just the default window manager. You can change it at will, no impediments at all.
    And, an ubuntu phone would give you almost as much power as Mint does because the insides are pretty much the same.
    So...what are you complaining about again?

  5. Re:executive summary: by Windwraith · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I've been following several ubuntu blogs and they got a ton of cash in mere days. Like you'd at times get updates with the $3K milestone and the $4K milestone in the same one-hour period.
    Besides, $18-22M is still a pretty kickass amount of money...and there is always the possibility of some larger sponsor kicking in.
    Personally, if I could afford it right now, I'd make sure to get myself one. I always wanted a linux phone with decent specs and without the risk of having to flash stuff everywhere and/or making clumsy chroots inside Android to have my favorite tools ready.

  6. Re: Not many big projects to judge by by AvitarX · · Score: 3, Insightful

    No it didn't, it had a very normal progression from what I can tell. I assume in this graph the green is the average daily amount predicting the total earned. http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1461411552/elite-dangerous/#chart-exp-trend

    Compare that to the graph in the article with the diagonal line, see how successful projects generally stay above the line (the diagonal one in the article, the flat one in my link). The edge is already well below it unfortunatly, and is quite early in funding. It shouldn't dip below until quite late in a campaign of at all, and it should never get anywhere near as low as it is now.

    --
    Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg