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Schneier: We Need To Relearn How To Accept Risk

An anonymous reader writes "Bruce Schneier has written an article about how our society is becoming increasingly averse to risk as we invent ways to reduce it. 'Risk tolerance is both cultural and dependent on the environment around us. As we have advanced technologically as a society, we have reduced many of the risks that have been with us for millennia. Fatal childhood diseases are things of the past, many adult diseases are curable, accidents are rarer and more survivable, buildings collapse less often, death by violence has declined considerably, and so on. All over the world — among the wealthier of us who live in peaceful Western countries — our lives have become safer.' This has led us to overestimate both the level of risk from unlikely events and also our ability to curtail it. Thus, trillions of dollars are spent and vital liberties are lost in misguided efforts to make us safer. 'We need to relearn how to recognize the trade-offs that come from risk management, especially risk from our fellow human beings. We need to relearn how to accept risk, and even embrace it, as essential to human progress and our free society. The more we expect technology to protect us from people in the same way it protects us from nature, the more we will sacrifice the very values of our society in futile attempts to achieve this security.'"

12 of 478 comments (clear)

  1. Diminishing returns by qbast · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Mitigate biggest risk and immediately something else becomes biggest. At some points you have to stop because every next risk is smaller and more has to be sacrificed for smaller piece of safety.

    1. Re:Diminishing returns by Thanshin · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Actually, it's worse than that. In order to eliminate certain risks only really drastic solutions are effective.

      I don't think certain risk elimination costs will become so high we're unwilling to pay. I believe the costs will go higher and we'll keep paying.

      Eventually, people will understand that to avoid risks originating from the poorest countries, the final solution is to just eradicate those countries. After all, we don't want them for their population but for their resources. Instead of killing a few and putting a government that follows our orders, eventually we'll be capable (both technologically and socially) to just exterminate everyone in a country and replace them with resource extraction machines.

      And once that problem is finally over, instead of the richest country vs the poorer one it will be between cities, and then neighborhoods.

      The only thing stopping the richest from protecting themselves by exterminating everyone else is the shitty quality of the robots.

    2. Re:Diminishing returns by jiadran · · Score: 5, Insightful

      From what I understand, the point is that we are not concentrating on the biggest risks, but on the wrong risks. The measures we have taken to "protect" flights have resulted in more deaths (due to car accidents of people avoiding flying) than the deaths caused by the original incident that triggered the "security" measures.

      All in all, we should not give up our freedoms for security theater that actually increases the overall risk.

    3. Re:Diminishing returns by qbast · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's because appeal to emotions trumps cost-benefit analysis anytime.

    4. Re:Diminishing returns by jellomizer · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think you used the wrong word for "Any strong belief"

      Stalin Russia was quite violent and evil by today's terms. He wasn't touting Religion but Communism.

      Religion tends to make an easy excuse, because most religions are based on old texts that have been translated a few times over, written in people from different cultures and different views of the world, it makes it easy to justify nearly anything with these texts by saying this is fact, this is metaphor, Lets focus on these words and not from those.

      When Jesus ask what was the most important commandment, he gave two.
      Love God, and Love your Neighbor. I choose to take that as the important parts, but others don't because they dislike their neighbor, and will focus on other parts where it was OK to strike people down.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    5. Re:Diminishing returns by dkleinsc · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Another way of looking at it is that religions typically either demand certain behaviors or prohibit certain behaviors. For Jews, the basics are more-or-less the 10 Commandments. For Christians, the basics are laid out in Matthew 22:36-40, to love thy neighbor and love God. For Muslims, the basics are the 5 Pillars, which are:
      1. A declaration that Allah is the one true god, and Mohammed is his prophet.
      2. Praying 5 times a day.
      3. Fasting during Ramadan.
      4. Give a percentage of your income to the poor.
      5. Try to get to Mecca at least once in your life.

      The vast majority of Muslims kinda sorta do that, although many fudge the praying 5 times a day part when it's inconvenient, and many never make it to Mecca. The idea, very popular in some Christian circles, that all Muslims are some sort of barbarian horde that would destroy everything good in the world if given a chance, just doesn't match up with reality.

      Likewise, the idea, very popular in some Muslim circles, that all Christians are some sort of decadant horde that would destroy everything good in the world if given a chance, also fails to match up with reality. For some reason, blanket statements about the worldviews of a billion people just doesn't capture the nuances of human thought and behavior.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    6. Re:Diminishing returns by Rockoon · · Score: 5, Funny

      Once I saw this guy on a bridge about to jump.
      I said, "Don't do it!" He said, "Nobody loves me." I said, "God loves you. Do you believe in God?" He said, "Yes."
      I said, "Are you a Christian or a Jew?" He said, "A Christian."
      I said, "Me, too! Protestant or Catholic?" He said, "Protestant."
      I said, "Me, too! What franchise?" He said, "Baptist."
      I said, "Me, too! Northern Baptist or Southern Baptist?" He said, "Northern Baptist."
      I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist or Northern Liberal Baptist?" He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist."
      I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region, or Northern Conservative Baptist Eastern Region?" He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region."
      I said, "Me, too! Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1879, or Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912?" He said, "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912."
      I said, "Die, heretic!" And I pushed him over.


      - Emo Philips

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
  2. Short version by philip.paradis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Bruce is right. Even if our society managed to put enough measures in place to mitigate all but the risks associated with an asteroid impact, you surely would not want to live in that society, as the term "living" would be a loosely defined term at best. It would be a society essentially devoid of free will.

    --
    Write failed: Broken pipe
    1. Re:Short version by 0111+1110 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      While you and I may not want to live in such a society there are those who would like nothing better. Many of them fancy themselves as the enforcers in such a regime, a chance to be a master instead of one of the many slaves. For people who live to control others every unjust law that makes life unbearable for the rest is yet another opportunity for them to exert their authority and feel that blissful, euphoric sense of power that is for them the ultimate drug.

      --
      Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it is to be a slave.
  3. Re:Sorry, but where is the evidence? by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 5, Insightful

    3,000 lost lives have caused us to spend trillions on wars. A fraction of that invested in additional medical research would have saved far more.

    A death in front of the cameras is worse more than a million deaths on a hospital bed...to a politician.

    --
    (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
  4. Schneier is right, as usual by Opportunist · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Though increasingly I start getting the impression that he's firing about a couple of "duh. You don't say..." statements. Or is it just 'cause I'm in the sec biz that it seems "duh" to me?

    Why does anyone think security is in any way different from any other business? In EVERY business, every project, every goal you have, everything you do, the first 90% take 10% of the work, while the last 10% gobble up 90%. Be it 80/20 or 70/30 in yours, I won't split hairs, but that's how it is: A huge part of the project or goal is trivially implemented while a minimal part takes up the lion's share. I'd even go so far to say that in security, the ratio is 99-1.

    The GOOD thing about security is that you can actually just do the first 99% and accept the risk for the rest, and get away with an incredible cost/benefit ratio. And you'll find that most companies actually use that strategy in their risk management and reach a security level of 95+ percent. Actually, the joke here is that most companies are, at least in my and I'd say "our" (yours too, I'd guess) definition of security standards, under-secured because of their IT-Governance and that "95% is good enough 'til everything is at 95%" rules. That's why trivial security mechanisms aren't implemented. We're already at 95 with sec. No need to throw money that way (and, believe it or not, most companies reach their "recommended" IT-Sec level easily. Simply because those 95% are SO dirt cheap, easy and painless to implement that they almost certainly ARE already in place, and if not a few pennies will do. You'll find the IT-Sec requirements usually in the "quick wins" quarter of the chart).

    You see, companies already heed that advice. Mostly because they don't give a shit about customers complaining about shoddy security because, well, they'll still buy 'cause we're SO cheap. And yes, they do.

    It's different with governments that won't just get a quick outcry when a security blooper happens (like a corporations would if they, say, lose every CC number of your customers). If a plane crashed anywhere into a building again, the press would have a field day. HOW could this happen? Didn't our law makers learn anything from 9/11? Did they simple ignore it and go on with their life? What do we have those useless twits for if they do not do ANYTHING? You may fill up here with statements of your choice, but one thing is certain: This administration is finished. Done. Nobody will give them credit for anything anymore. And you better forget about winning the next elections for at least half a decade. People tend to remember those things (and the other party will spend a lot of time and money reminding them of it).

    So we need 100% security. Not because we really want it or need it. Not because the scenario is so dangerous to us, the people.

    It's dangerous to them, and their place at the feeding trough.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  5. Re:A lot of this is not aversion to risk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Almost but not quite - when something goes wrong, a large proportion of people start looking for some way to shift the responsibility from their own actions to some other party. Not quite everyone is like this, but the number that accept responsibility for themselves is diminishing and when you see one person after another getting away with shirking their responsibility it makes it harder and harder to justify and not go down that destructive path yourself.