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Stephen Elop Would Pull a Nokia On Microsoft

Nerval's Lobster writes "A new Bloomberg report suggests that Stephen Elop, who's apparently on the short list of candidates to replace Steve Ballmer as Microsoft's CEO, would eliminate company projects such as Xbox and Bing while focusing resources on Office. Before he left Microsoft to join Nokia, Elop headed Microsoft's Business Division, so it's no surprise he'd want to focus on Office and the company's other, highly profitable enterprise software. But as head of Nokia, Elop made similarly bold strategic realignments that, while they probably looked good on paper, didn't quite work out. Specifically, Elop decided to abandon Nokia's popular homegrown operating systems, including Symbian, in favor of Microsoft's Windows Phone. That caused Nokia's share of the overall mobile-device market to dive into the single digits. At the time, Elop insisted he made the decision because Symbian and its ilk were incapable of competing in the broader market against Android and iOS; revelations by the Finnish media over the past few months, however, suggest that he'd been offered a generous cash incentive for selling off the company, which gives his 'strategic realignment' (which everyone knew would initially collapse Nokia's market-share, as its product pipeline emptied out) a whiff of self-interest. So while it's likely that a Microsoft run by Elop would make some decisive moves, his previous attempt at game-changing quickly transformed Nokia from a communications powerhouse into a second-tier competitor and (eventually) a Microsoft subsidiary. And by eliminating Bing and Xbox, Microsoft would be giving up completely on the search and gaming markets in favor of becoming more of an enterprise-centric company—something that could please analysts mostly interested in the company's bottom line, but basically an admission of defeat in the consumer realm."

31 of 292 comments (clear)

  1. All in favor of Elop getting the job? by Penguinisto · · Score: 5, Funny

    Yes! Let's watch him do to Microsoft what he did to Nokia!

    But, that said, maybe a breakup and spin-off of non-core divisions is exactly what Microsoft needs. This whole 'chasing Apple/Sony/{$newTechMarket}' thing is slowly killing them.

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    1. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's nice, but nobody's suggesting xbox should cease to exist or follow a completely different direction, they're just suggesting that Microsoft could sell it off as a separate business.

      Who'd buy a company that's lost money over its entire existence and is only making operating profit on old products that it's about to replace?

    2. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by Sir_Sri · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Especially when your 3 biggest competitors would suddenly be two companies long established in the console market (Sony and Nintendo), who both have significant revenue they can operate with, and your other competitor is the guy you just bought the division from - Microsoft, and Windows, who ultimately control most of the underlying technology you rely on.

      Unless sony or Nintendo wanted to buy it no one with much sense would want to buy the Xbox division. I can't really see Sony or Nintendo wanting it other than to shut it down.

    3. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by crunchygranola · · Score: 4, Informative

      Who'd buy a company that's lost money over its entire existence and is only making operating profit on old products that it's about to replace?

      Someone who believes that they could manage that line of business profitably.

      Profitable business lines sell at a premium. Money losing ones sell at a discount. Lots of entrepreneurial individuals and businesses buy money losing businesses at a discount and turn them around.

      Do you believe Microsoft did and is doing the best of all possible strategies and executions with the XBox, and that no one could do better? A buyer would bet that the answer to that is "no".

      --
      Second class citizen of the New Gilded Age
    4. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Insightful

      First, your sed input string syntax is bogus.

      Thank God I wasn't referencing sed then, huh? ;)

      (notice that I wasn't replacing anything, but pointing out differing competitors).

      But more importantly, this has been Microsoft's business strategy since not long after it encorporated: "Extend, Embrace, Extinguish." It isn't killing them in the long term, and analysts only ever look at the short term. I shouldn't have to explain the problem of short term thinking.

      The problem isn't that Microsoft is moving to a new market, but that they keep jumping out into a plethora of different markets with little rhyme or reason - oftentimes it appears that they're just doing it in case something takes off. Call it shotgun-strategy.

      Look at it this way: Buying into the games console market, shovelling zillions of bucks into it, and almost 12 years later not seeing anything close to an ROI? I can understand the charge of "short-term thinking" if the time frame were less than two years, but a decade + is a friggin' eternity in the tech world.

      Meanwhile, we have Microsoft casting expensive nets into the worlds of mobile (both tablets and phones), games, television, music, enterprise servers, cloud services, web search, and a whole pile of other directions that make no damned sense. Their overall strategy is moving in as many directions as they can perceive - often to the detriment of their core businesses (see also Metro/Modern, the gawdawful ribbon interface, etc.)

      Long story short, there is a big difference in moving into new markets to strengthen (or even transform) your core businesses, and simply throwing everything you can at the wall to find out what sticks - even when it makes no fiscal or branding sense.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    5. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by realityimpaired · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Someone who believes that they could manage that line of business profitably.

      If they moved more towards interoperability with Windows as a platform, then they'd be much more profitable, IMO. Steam's heading in that direction with Steambox -- you can buy a game on Steam and it'll play on both your PC and your Steambox, and you can stream/play games from your PC on the TV screen through Steambox's streaming functionality.

      If XBox had binary compatibility with Windows, and the ability to play Windows games on your console (through streaming as Steam's doing, or directly), it'd make the platform much more saleable. They really dropped the ball, not integrating it more heavily into the Windows environment when they had the chance.

    6. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It's clear this is all nonsense. Xbox is only really valuable to Microsoft. And it is valuable to Microsoft. You can tell this was written by someone without a clue by this quote:

      That caused Nokia's share of the overall mobile-device market to dive into the single digits.

      Abandoning symbian did not destroy Nokia. Just ask Blackberry what it's like to compete with iOS and Android. Blackberry even went so far as to make their phones essentially an Android phone but with extra features and they still bombed. The Symbian implosion would have been as brutal and swift as the black berry implosion. The only thing keeping Windows Phone a viable third candidate is a giant pile of cash and determination on Microsoft's part. It'll probably pay off but Nokia had nowhere near the funds to survive a fight like that.

      Everything I've heard from my friends in the phone space is that hardware manufacturers are all feeling under siege. Samsung has managed to grab some market share but they don't expect them to hold on very long with the waves of Chinese clones and companies like MediaTek who are getting very very fast at implementing the latest ARM, Broadcom and Imagination IP significantly faster than Samsung etc.

      Nokia picked the right approach. They completely cornered the Windows Phone market. Look at Motorola. They are owned by Google and they can't break into the Android market with great hardware and software. Why? Because of people who tell me they have a "Galaxy" phone. I heard the BBC say the number two phone platforms were Apple and Galaxy--with Windows Phone in third place. They didn't even call it Android. Lumia might be doing only so-so in the US but they're doing very well overseas. Largely because the US is a subsidized phone market. But even that is changing.

      Nokia controls almost the entire Windows Phone market. When Microsoft's giant dump trucks of cash start translating into market share the Lumia line was well positioned to take the vast majority of the sales.

      People who think Nokia died because they went Windows Phone are ignoring the plight of Motorola, LG, Sony and HTC all of whom embraced android and are doing poorly in the US.

    7. Re: All in favor of Elop getting the job? by Narcocide · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The only people I ever hear complaining about the Wii-U are anonymous cowards who claim they won't buy one because the press says its a flop, and constantly parrot that its a flop, but wouldn't have bought one to begin with. The built-in community features on the Wii-U, where users are allowed to share in-game experiences and fan art and coordinate multi-player events and do video chat, etc, however tell an entirely different story of nearly 100% buyer satisfaction. So, just FYI don't believe everything you hear on the street. When the Wii came out initially, all the same parties were parroting that it was a huge flop too. The fact the Wii-U hasn't met the same sales figures hardly constitutes a "flop." Sounds more like wishful thinking from Sony and Microsoft shareholders to me, honestly.

    8. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by Nerdfest · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The problem is that WinRT is a closed platform that MS gets a cut of all software sold on. Many software houses know how that ends, with them wanting a cut of all subscriptions and everything else, thanks to Apple. Steam will allow you to install anything you want, just like you currently can on a (non-Metro interface) Windows PC. That Metro interface if why Valve is creating SteamBox; they know how this plays out as well, and doesn't want to hand Microsoft 30% of their income.

    9. Re:All in favor of Elop getting the job? by Stormwatch · · Score: 5, Informative

      Let me tell you why that's bullshit.

      Until late 2010, Nokia's market share was around 70% -- uncontested leader, twice the size of Apple, four times bigger than Samsung, and consistently, immensely profitable. They had the largest ecosystem and the top-selling app store. Carriers and retailers loved Nokia. Customer fidelity was near absolute. Market analysts expected Nokia to remain the leader for years. Maybe Symbian was getting a bit long in the tooth, but MeeGo was on the way.

      After the "burning platforms" and the move to Winblows Phoney, however... their market share collapsed overnight. Users, carriers, and retailers fully rejected it. While the press was drooling over the first MeeGo phone, they gave it a very limited launch and announced that no more would be made. Ratings companies now rank Nokia stock as junk.

      You call this "a fairly good job"? Well, sure, taking in account that this was Elop's true goal all along: to sabotage Nokia, make its stock near worthless so that Microsoft could buy the whole damn thing. He achieved what he meant to, and killed Nokia while doing so.

  2. Wait. What? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So the plan is he'll gain stewardship of Microsoft and hand it over to... Microsoft?

    Seems a bit redundant

    Oh right we're going to pretend Elop wasn't an infiltrator sent to hasten the ripening of a patent laden company down on it's luck

  3. Please pick Elop.... by Lumpy · · Score: 5, Interesting

    That moron completely destroyed Nokia, he will do the same to Microsoft.

    --
    Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    1. Re:Please pick Elop.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      I really doubt you are competent enough to create that much loss that quickly. Elop is a professional, you can't compare with him.

    2. Re:Please pick Elop.... by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 4, Interesting

      If you can take less than three years to:

      1) take over a huge multinational company with critical patents to the largest growth sector of the tech industry
      2) cut its market cap in half
      3) sell the board on an acquisition by the company that sent you

      then there's a CEO job waiting for you too.

      But ... cutting XBox? That would be worth a Sony CEO position...

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
  4. Yeah right by timeOday · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Elop decided to abandon Nokia's popular homegrown operating systems, including Symbian, in favor of Microsoft's Windows Phone. That caused Nokia's share of the overall mobile-device market to dive into the single digits.

    Blackberry stuck with their own stuff, which was even relatively entrenched in the enterprise... a lot of good it did them.

  5. Whoa by vivek7006 · · Score: 4, Funny

    He is a double agent! He tricked Microsoft into believing that he was their agent working for them to run down Nokia, all the while he was really working for Google! This could be the plot of a new Mission Impossible movie, Tom Cruise playing Elop?

  6. Symbian, really? by chuckugly · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Anyone who thinks Symbian was a decent alternative OS and that abandoning it for virtually ANYTHING else was a mistake needs to have their head examined. In fact I'd credit sticking to Symbian for too long with as much of Nokias problems as anything else.

    1. Re:Symbian, really? by Sarten-X · · Score: 4, Insightful

      As an OS, Symbian sucked. As an interface to a phone, it worked well. People who wanted a phone to run games and run all the bells and whistles didn't buy Nokia phones. People who bought Nokia phones wanted a phone that made phone calls, and in a pinch could do some other neat tricks, too.

      For comparison, consider my wife's old Android phone, which crashed when the Phone app was opened... or my iPhone, which has trouble figuring out whether it wants to use Wi-Fi or 4G for data transfer at any given time. My old Nokia phone was just a phone, and for a large market segment (such as the elderly retirees whose kids insist they have a cell phone "for emergencies"), that's all they need.

      Nokia had a niche market all ready as the manufacturer of reliable low-end phones. Elop led them down the familiar Microsoft path of following the latest trends, so they lost that one market they dominated.

      --
      You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
    2. Re:Symbian, really? by king+neckbeard · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Symbian wasn't a really competitive smartphone OS, but it had a lot of market share and a good transition path towards Maemo/Meego with Qt, which would have been a strong alternative.

      --
      This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
    3. Re:Symbian, really? by RobertM1968 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      As an OS, Symbian sucked. As an interface to a phone, it worked well. People who wanted a phone to run games and run all the bells and whistles didn't buy Nokia phones. People who bought Nokia phones wanted a phone that made phone calls, and in a pinch could do some other neat tricks, too.

      For comparison, consider my wife's old Android phone, which crashed when the Phone app was opened... or my iPhone, which has trouble figuring out whether it wants to use Wi-Fi or 4G for data transfer at any given time. My old Nokia phone was just a phone, and for a large market segment (such as the elderly retirees whose kids insist they have a cell phone "for emergencies"), that's all they need.

      Nokia had a niche market all ready as the manufacturer of reliable low-end phones. Elop led them down the familiar Microsoft path of following the latest trends, so they lost that one market they dominated.

      That, (coupled with the sales figures to support it) is a better explanation of reality. The GP/PP/etc need to stop thinking as techie geeks, and start thinking in the way the highly diverse consumer market thinks. There's a reason the Symbian phones sold. Decent hardware that did the job for people who don't want (or are scared of) smartphones, but want something better than a dumb "calls/text only") phone.

  7. Let's not mince words by onyxruby · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Nokia's OS work was absolutely terrible, in fact it was so bad that it made what Microsoft had look good. The one thing Elop couldn't do was stick with the old Nokia way of doing things, it simply wasn't relevant in this time and age. The mistake Elop made was not in getting rid of Nokia's homegrown OS developments, it was in choosing Microsoft's developments to replace them.

    Elop should have chosen to go with Android for the killer platform of the their OS with Nokia's hardware. Unfortunately for Nokia he went for the lethal platform of the Microsoft OS with Nokia's hardware. The result was the choosing of industry contacts that Elop had at Microsoft instead of going with Android and systematic destruction of billions of dollars in equity.

    Elop can be counted on to make hard choices and get rid of losing platforms. Unfortunately he can also be counted on to make foolish choices to fill the void. Inevitably he will therefore be the next Microsoft CEO...

    1. Re:Let's not mince words by Antonovich · · Score: 4, Insightful

      They could have stuffed it up, but I can't help thinking Nokia would be in the position Samsung are now had they gone with Android. They may have had to tow the line a bit with Google but with their expertise (and kick-arse hardware), I'm convinced they would have made it very hard for others to thrive, even Samsung. And this is not just hindsight talking, LOTS of people knew Nokia would struggle if they went with anything apart from Android. It would have also meant there was a European company in the game too...

  8. Meego to hell by goombah99 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Elop said he will abandon Microsoft's failed attempt to create a modern operating system and simply bet the whole company on getting in bed with Nokia and use their Symbian operating system. Either that or Meego.

    The long term strategy is that after the company craters, Nokia can purchase it for a song, and he can then be tapped to be CEO of Nokia.

    He noted that this strategy has worked in the past. "Nokia's cratered stock price doubled after they sold me off of Microsoft, And I can confidently predict that after I crater microsoft, it's price will double when they sell me back to Nokia."

    He also pointed out that essentially the same strategy was used by Gil Amelio when Apple abandoned it's OS developement and bought Steve's Jobs and his Next OS, shedding Gil in the process.

    "it's proven. Buy another company's OS and bet on it. That's what I know how to do better than anyone."

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  9. Keep XBox, dump Bing? by Animats · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The XBox unit is profitable. The entire first generation of the XBox was financial lose, but in the last few years, the business finally started to make money.

    Bing, not so much. Bing seems to be a dumping ground for Microsoft managers. Every year or so, there's a new management team at Bing. Their business strategy is "copy Google". To some extent, they have to - for a while, their ad system was completely different from Google's, and advertisers wouldn't bother to use it. Something like 80% of Bing users use Internet Explorer. Those are the people who don't know how to change the default search engine.

    Google as the only major search engine, though, is scary. The remaining competition in web search is tiny in the US - IAC, InfoSeek, Yandex, and Baidu. (DuckDuckGo and Bleeko are resellers of Bing and Yandex, respectively.) With no competition, Google could charge much more for ads and become even more intrusive.

    1. Re:Keep XBox, dump Bing? by Compholio · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The XBox unit is profitable. ...

      You sure about that? Microsoft Is Making An Astonishing $2 Billion Per Year From Android Patent Royalties

  10. Yes... by Junta · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Evaluating Elop with respect to good/bad done to Nokia:
    -Good: ditching Symbian
    -Bad: Picking MS, the last place platform
    -Bad: Focusing on higher end, North American market and neglecting Nokia's thriving global market.

    Basically, the only measure by which Elop was 'good' would be microsoft's measurement of loyalty, willingness to sink his company for the sake of giving microsoft more of a chance.

    Just imagine if Nokia had been the provider of things like Lumia 520 but with Android on it....

    --
    XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
  11. office is profitable but for how long? by Wycliffe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Putting all your eggs in the Office camp seems very dangerous. Our office recently
    migrated to openoffice and never looked back. I use google docs at home. Both
    are currently weak and can only get better. Google has recently added office tools
    to android. I see standalone high dollar office suites as a dying breed. I personally
    would not double down on them. Same with high-end computer OSes, another one
    of Microsoft's cash cows. If microsoft wants to exist in 20 years they need to be in
    the tablet, smartphone, tv console, and other growing markets that continue to reduce
    the need for a full blown desktop at home. I know a lot of people who no longer have
    a desktop computer or see no need for one. This number will probably continue to
    grow as tablets/smartphones and roku/xbox type devices continue to add features.

  12. With Elop's record by kawabago · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I wouldn't trust Elop to keep a popsicle frozen. He'd sell off the freezer to save on energy and make his only product, a popsicle, more profitable.

  13. Re:He might. by turbidostato · · Score: 4, Funny

    " whom would he work for now? Is google planning to buy microsoft? apple? the NSA?"

    Yaaawwwn! I barf in your general direction for you lack of business acumen.

    SCO, dammit! it has been SCO from the beginning!

  14. Re:let's make "Elop" a verb by gdshaw · · Score: 4, Interesting

    let's make "Elop" a verb meaning to abandon a company's popular proven products in favor of an over-designed unusable system, which causes the company to lose sales

    Look up the term 'Elop Effect', defined as what happens when you combine the Osborne Effect (making your current product appear obsolete by prematurely pre-announcing its successor) and the Ratner Effect (damaging sales by disparaging your own products).

  15. Re:Back to Basics by plover · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Microsoft has a different problem: their older products are their own stiffest competition. Why will anyone buy Office 2016 when Office 2013 already does everything the typical consumer needs?

    It used to be easy to sell new versions, because the old versions were buggy, bloated, hard to use, and missing a lot of useful features. But Microsoft has dramatically improved their quality. They've added piles of features. They've improved usability for the average John and Jane Does of the world. They've built a system that does everything the typical user needs. So their old free-ride path of "upgrade our old crap because you need to" is over, because it's no longer needed.

    What they've since recognized is that their customers suck at owning computers. Most people don't make backups, they get viruses, they don't know how to manage a home system. So they are offering Office365 in the cloud to appeal to people to not have to care any more (for only $9.95/month). All John Doe has to do is remember his password, and everything else is taken care of for him. They can continue to offer token features and upgrades thrown into the price, but the real money of tomorrow will be made hosting people's data for them, not in the software. It's not the back-to-the-basics approach you advocate, but it's what they're betting will be their future.

    --
    John