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Do Hypersonic Missiles Make Defense Systems Obsolete?

An anonymous reader writes "The Diplomat's Zachary Keck wonders why the U.S. government is doubling down on missile defense systems even as hypersonic missiles threaten to render them obsolete. Keck notes that hypersonic missiles pose two distinct challenges to current missile defense systems. First, they travel far faster than the missiles the defense systems are designed to intercept. Second, they travel at lower altitudes and possess greater maneuverability than the missiles the current systems have been built to destroy. Nonetheless, the U.S. was planning on spending $2 billion a year on missile defense through 2017, and now the Pentagon is asking for an additional $4.5 billion over the next five years."

47 of 365 comments (clear)

  1. Not Obsolete At All by KermodeBear · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes, there may be these incredible "Hypersonic" missiles, but only the people with the capability to build or purchase them will have those missiles. Everyone else will be using conventional sub-sonic missiles. Also consider the many, many missiles (hundreds of thousands? I don't know) that currently exist right now and will be used in the future.

    Today's anti-missile systems will be useful for many years to come.

    --
    Love sees no species.
    1. Re:Not Obsolete At All by phayes · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Add to that the targeting dilemma where missiles at that speed are practically blind. Hypervelocity missiles are good for "journalists" in order to sell paper but not so much against the US Navy.

      --
      Democracy is a sheep and two wolves deciding what to have for lunch. Freedom is a well armed sheep contesting the issue
    2. Re:Not Obsolete At All by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      We also have to remember that anti missile systems will soon be laser based, meaning that said missiles won't be able to dodge them, unless they can go faster than the speed of light..

    3. Re:Not Obsolete At All by SecurityGuy · · Score: 2

      Conventional missiles have been supersonic for oh, 60 years or so now.

      But yeah, I agree, the question is a stupid one. No, missile defense isn't obsolete, it'll just have to evolve to handle faster targets. Dare I say it...it's an arms race, and always will be.

    4. Re:Not Obsolete At All by jklovanc · · Score: 2

      They may have difficulty hitting moving ships but port facilities and moored ships are vulnerable. Also, with a large enough warhead, say a small nuke, the hyper velocity missile only has to get close to put ships out of action. Ships are not the only target They can be used to take out command and control facilities, storage depots, staging areas, etc. If you can not stop the missiles front line troops may lose all support.

    5. Re:Not Obsolete At All by jklovanc · · Score: 3, Interesting

      A missile that can handle the heat of hyper velocity can probably handle a laser hit. It is also difficult to track and lock on to an object moving that fast. A hyper velocity missile with a little software to jink around may be able to evade the laser.

    6. Re:Not Obsolete At All by Hatta · · Score: 2

      Today's anti-missile systems will be useful for many years to come.

      Are today's anti-missile systems useful? Or are they just meant for posturing? I remember during the first Gulf War that not a single PATRIOT missile shot down a SCUD. Is there anything better today?

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    7. Re:Not Obsolete At All by 0123456 · · Score: 4, Funny

      No, when hypersonic missiles become obsolete, they'll just be replaced with ludicrousonic missiles.

    8. Re:Not Obsolete At All by wagnerrp · · Score: 2

      Remember that in the last phases of the operational life of the SR 71 Blackbird, their payload was a high mach number drone.

      Not quite. That was in the last phases of its development life, and the idea was scrapped because they could not get supersonic separation to work reliably, resulting in the loss of airframes and pilots during testing.

    9. Re:Not Obsolete At All by bob_super · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Senkaku, Taiwan, Phillipines.
      Three reasons for the Chinese to have a nice toy that scares the shit out of US carrier groups.
      Anyone closer than Okinawa will be likely to get sunk, and missiles are a lot cheaper than carriers.

      The journalist isn't playing chicken little, the military complex wants funding to prepare for a significant threat to the US hegemony.

  2. And this is why... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And this would be why the R&D types, especially Navy, have been pushing like mad to get higher output lasers without the clunkiness of the old chemical-powered ones...

    1. Re:And this is why... by WormholeFiend · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And once the anti-missile lasers are well-established, there will be a push for faster-than-light missiles.

      And then of course, we will have the technology we need to explore other star systems.

    2. Re:And this is why... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      And then of course, we will have the technology we need to explore other star systems.

      ...and blow them the hell up!

    3. Re:And this is why... by Antique+Geekmeister · · Score: 2

      Not lasers. Crowbars: they don't suffer from the optical distortion problems of lasers. Look up the history of "Project Thor" to understand the tremendous advantage of simply de-orbiting any long, narrow, dense objects from earth orbit.

  3. hypersonic hypershmomic by xevioso · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So maybe it's because a lot of people's jobs rest on these missile defense systems being implemented?

    Also, I am curious how hypersonic weapons will fare against a ship equipped with either a Gauss cannon, or more importantly, a laser. Wouldn't both of these be an adequate defense against a hypersonic missle, if implemented properly?

    1. Re:hypersonic hypershmomic by jklovanc · · Score: 2

      Gauss cannon

      There is a lag between the time the shell is fired and the time the shell hits. That requires leading the missile. If the incoming missile jinks the outgoing shell will miss. To hit would require in flight tracking and guidance and even then misses would be likely.

      Laser

      Lasers are also non instantaneous as hey need time to burn through the missile. This requires precise tracking and fast beam manipulation. If the hyper velocity missile jinks well enough the laser energy will spread out and be ineffective. Also hyper velocity missiles are hardened against heat caused by air friction. A little more shielding may defeat lasers as well.

  4. Defense Gap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because Hypersonic missiles are ridiculously expensive and none of the probable combatants in near to mid term future wars are likely to have them. Even after they become viable weapons, only advanced military forces like China or Russia will be able field them for quite a while. The US is not going to war with China or Russia any time soon. We need defense platforms that deal with realistic enemies, and they will use missile tech that these defense platforms are capable of deal with.

    Also, Beta sucks. Long live Classic!

  5. missiles by Iamthecheese · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I don't know, can they shoot down beta?

    --
    If video games influenced behavior the Pac Man generation would be eating pills and running away from their problems.
  6. Lasers by hunter44102 · · Score: 2

    Does anyone know why they can't use lasers to knock down these fast missiles? http://www.defense.gov/News/Ne...

  7. Hypersonic missiles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    It would be great if someone launched a hypersonic missile towards Beta.

  8. Exactly what I was thinking by SuperKendall · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You are in a pretty good place if the only missiles that can successfully attack you are hypersonic, since they would be very expensive to build and take a lot of engineering prowess to work reliably.

    Also how much of a payload can one missile really carry? Not much, good only for targeted strikes. But the more recent missile attacks we have seen have been more blanket attacks, like the Palestinian missiles constantly bombarding Israeli cities. Anything that can protect civilian populations from that kind of madness absolutely has a place.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Exactly what I was thinking by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      None.
      The air friction would kill the spores.

    2. Re:Exactly what I was thinking by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

      Yeah? I'm not sure exactly what kinds of missiles they are trying to protect against

      An ICBM would be one of them because you have such a long lead time between continents (even at hypersonic speeds) you can work an intercept of some kind.

      The "hypersonic missiles" being talked about are launched from relatively close range, and then hug the terrain to reach the target at hypersonic velocity.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    3. Re:Exactly what I was thinking by icebike · · Score: 2

      When exactly, have hundreds of incoming missiles been a problem for the US? Saddam Hussein may have a different view.
      But nobody is going to launch hundreds of hypersonic missiles at the US (or any other country for that matter).

      There are two types of defenders against massive missile attacks, those who have no viable defense, (in which case conventional cruise missiles are good enough) and those who could mount a serious defense and/or retaliation, (in which case such an attack would be suicide).

      Hypersonic missiles will never be a mass attack weapon, unless the cost comes way way down, and the accuracy becomes kitchen window accurate. Those two things don't tend to happen together. They will always tend to be an expensive solution.

      Also, against incoming munitions is improving all the time.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    4. Re:Exactly what I was thinking by icebike · · Score: 2

      Perhaps in your rush to reply, you didn't read all the way to my second paragraph.

      No country is going to pick a fight with any country that can produce hundreds of hypersonic missiles. Anyone using them in massive numbers would be looking at the same number back, or a nuclear response.

      Also because hypersonics don't have that much maneuverability they would make a poor anti-ship missile. (These are designed as long range weapons, it takes them a hundred miles just to get up to speed). They would have to change course much quicker than is practical at that speed, (because ships move) or they would have to come on a straight line attack. Current, or upgraded CIWS would be able to handle small numbers.

      --
      Sig Battery depleted. Reverting to safe mode.
    5. Re:Exactly what I was thinking by Rich0 · · Score: 2

      Agree on the anti-ship bit. In order to fire a conventional missile at a ship you only need to know its location within a few miles, and if you know its direction of travel you can have even less certainty. The missile is programmed to fly to a particular point and turn on its radar, then to travel along a course looking for something to destroy. If the missile spots a ship within a few miles to either side of its flight path then it turns towards it and attacks it. A conventional missile has no trouble turning because it is traveling at a somewhat slow speed (granted, faster than most aircraft).

      A hypersonic missile couldn't change course very quickly due to its high speed and likely small control surfaces (if they were big they'd rip right off when used). It might be hard to shoot down the missile if you spot it only seconds away, but that problem works just as well in reverse - if the missile spots you only a second or two away it will have a hard time steering towards you. Now, you could put a huge radar on the front and fly at high altitude to spot a ship 50 miles away and have more time to turn towards it, but that also means that the ship has more time to fire back.

      Against a fixed land target a hypersonic missile would be very effective - it would have no radio emissions, though it would no doubt be quite bright in IR. You'd need to spot them a long way off using power radar, which of course is vulnerable to attack.

    6. Re:Exactly what I was thinking by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

      Hypersonic missiles are designed to destroy targets within minutes of detecting their position. Detection can be via satellite or done or submarine etc. You need to get a good fix but then you can get the missile there so quickly that the target doesn't have time to move very far.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  9. here's the thing by jollyreaper · · Score: 4, Informative

    If the enemy doesn't have good targets, these missiles don't accomplish much.

    According to Richard Clarke:

    As early as Sept. 12, 2001, Clarke says, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld urged bombing Iraq despite repeated assurances from intelligence officials that the threat emanated from Afghanistan.

    "Rumsfeld said there aren't any good targets in Afghanistan. And there are lots of good targets in Iraq," Clarke said on Sunday's 60 Minutes. "I said, 'Well, there are lots of good targets in lots of places, but Iraq had nothing to do with it.' "

    --
    Kwisatz Haderach
    Sell the spice to CHOAM
    This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
  10. Do Hypersonic Styles Make Slashdot Obsolete? by FUCK+BETA,+FUCK+DICE · · Score: 5, Informative

    Betas? We don't need no stinkin' betas! FUCK BETA

  11. No, Because Not Everyone Can Afford Them by zbobet2012 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The simple answer is no, because not everyone can afford them. Even more importantly, those who can generally already had the ability to overwhelm any missile defense system via sheer numbers of warheads. The US really isn't as concerned about people like Russia and China attacking us, they have a very vested interest in stability.What the US is concerned about is a country like North Korea nuking Japan or the US West Coast. Or really even having the ability to do so, as it stop almost all US influence in the area. That is what missile defense systems are designed and deployed for.

  12. Procurement inertia by benjfowler · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This happens a lot. Note that the US loves supercarriers too and keep building them, even while more rational people know that they'll be sent to the bottom within minutes of an high-intensity, high-tech war breaking out. The Chinese allegedly have ballistic missiles with reentry vehicles which can find and hit moving ships.

    Every major war has started with equipment, tactics, strategy inherited from the last war. The start of WWI, with light horsemen charging into, and getting cut up by, machine gun fire. The officers had their ideas -- and that was _it_.

    The reasons for all this are complex, but in a nutshell, it's got to do with inertia, hubris, egos, and defence pork.

    The US is lucky in a sense -- despite all this, their technology development pipeline is very deep, their resources are huge, and they are culturally adapted to change in a way that most other cultures are not.

    1. Re:Procurement inertia by cold+fjord · · Score: 2

      Note that the US loves supercarriers too and keep building them, even while more rational people know that they'll be sent to the bottom within minutes of an high-intensity, high-tech war breaking out. The Chinese allegedly have ballistic missiles with reentry vehicles which can find and hit moving ships.

      They haven't quite gone out of style yet. The Chinese are building aircraft carriers as well, and are on their way to having four of them. The first Chinese aircraft carrier battle group did a demonstration cruise not long ago. The Indians are building up their carrier fleet as well. The British navy is building two new large carriers.

      The Chinese allegedly have ballistic missiles with reentry vehicles which can find and hit moving ships.

      The US Aegis air defense system typically found on destroyers has a well proven anti-ballistic missile capability.

      The start of WWI, with light horsemen charging into, and getting cut up by, machine gun fire. The officers had their ideas -- and that was _it_.

      On the Western front in WW 1 cavalry and mounted infantry were stymied. On the Eastern front and Middle East especially they continued to pay an active role that at times was highly successful.

      WWI in the Middle East

      --
      much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot - George Orwell
    2. Re:Procurement inertia by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      The situation is far more complicated than that.

      China cannot do a simultaneous strike on everything, simply because US assets are so widely dispersed. China can start shooting down US satellites, but it would take time to get them all. The hypersonic missiles will be largely ineffective against ships at sea; they'd be better off using nuclear subs (although I don't know how effective that will be.)

      The US has capabilities that we can only speculate about, because nobody's talking. (It's a lot easier to maintain and use secret weapons than in, say, 1870, when the French issued the mitrailleuse (sp?), a primitive machine gun, to gunners who'd never seen anything like it before and didn't know what to do with it.) You're not talking about present-day Chinese capabilities either, so the US will have even better tricks up its sleeve.

      Besides, there are people who sit around the Pentagon and likely other places coming up with plans for various scenarios. There's got to be plans on the assumption that Chinese death rays destroy all US satellites and carrier groups, and there are people prepared to respond.

      Finally, the Chinese are aware they can push us only so far, and that line is not clearly defined. At some point, the US launches the nukes, and it's war over, too bad about the US and China.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  13. I think they don't understand missile defense by erroneus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Experience in the US Navy here, specifically the targeting and tracking systems. But you don't have to know what I know to know what R2D2 with a hard-on does. It is missile defense and quite effective. It works by sending projectiles at the incoming missile to disrupt it.

    Anti-aircraft is a similar notion -- send up fireworks which spread particles into the air in front of aircraft and hope it interferes with the planes. A missile defense system doesn't "chase" missiles, it is launched in front of them. They then explode in front of them in hopes of disrupting them in some way. Advanced systems, in my mind, would be a CWIS at the end of a missile system. It's not hard to imagine.

    1. Re:I think they don't understand missile defense by swb · · Score: 2

      What's the tracking distance of Phalanx?

      My only concern with CIWS is how far out it can track a ground-hugging hypersonic missile. You don't have a lot of time to engage it when you can't see it over the horizon. Even at 60 ft elevation on a ship, the horizon is only 8-9 miles away.

      That gives you, what, maybe 5-6 seconds from detection at the horizon to impact. You'd have to have your Vulcan firing 2 seconds after detection to hit it.

  14. The "Gap" Debate All Over Again by cyocum · · Score: 2

    This sounds like the Bomber Gap or the Missle Gap all over again.

  15. No such thing by Dunbal · · Score: 3

    There is no such thing as an obsolete defensive system (or weapon, for that matter). A knife or a fist or even a wooden stick at the right time in the right place is worth more than billions of dollars of expensive hardware.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  16. Re:Bee Keepers and the Audience by s.petry · · Score: 2, Informative

    I submitted my first post yesterday, but have not yet received the votes to make the front page. Feel free to get this up on the main page.

    --

    -The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.

  17. Re:Bee Keepers and the Audience by runeghost · · Score: 2, Insightful

    When you stir up a colony of bees, they buzz around angrily and try to sting you. On the surface, they appear mad, but I think some of them secretly enjoy it. Otherwise, they'd probably go back to the business of making honey as soon as they could.

    And then when you replace their hive with a plastic beach ball in a week, both they and you will be surprised and astonished when honey production drops to zero and stays there.

  18. Re:Bee Keepers and the Audience by ZorinLynx · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Old-school Slashdot user from the 90s here.

    I think what everyone is trying to say is that Slashdot should be left alone. No big makeovers, no big changes. We like it the way it is, and want it to be immune from the pile of suck that has taken over the rest of the web.

    Slashdot has remained one of the few sites that has changed little over the years. It is already perfect the way it is, and any change is just going to make it worse. Leave it the hell alone. There is nothing wrong with its usability, readability, etc. the way it is.

    Not only that, but... if you are trying to attract a different type of user to the site, you need to keep in mind that the people who are here LIKE the current company. If you attract scores of new users, it will be like an awesome small club opening its membership to all the drunk hobos in the city. The atmosphere and feel of the site are just not going to be the same, and us core, loyal, long time users will LEAVE.

    Do what you must, I hope my advice is at least read.

  19. Re:Bee Keepers and the Audience by TheloniousToady · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That's actually been my concern: Slashdot becomes so polluted with "f* beta" that nobody wants to read or contribute to it anymore. We keep hearing that the main value of the site is its interesting/insightful/funny comments (true enough), yet most of the comments from yesterday were none of the above.

    Yes, the bees are angry. You know it, I know it, the beekeepers know it. So let's all go back to making honey and see how they sort out the hive problem. Otherwise, without honey, the colony won't make it through the winter.

    (Sorry for carrying the beehive metaphor a bit too far. ;-)

  20. Re:Why use missiles? by camperdave · · Score: 3, Informative

    Who needs expensive hypersonic missiles when you got religion and fanatics.

    The side without the religious fanatics.

    --
    When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  21. Re:Bee Keepers and the Audience by illestov · · Score: 2

    The Bee's will join another colony or make their own and the beekeeprs can go fuck themselves

  22. Re:Why use missiles? by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

    Which one is that? As far as I can see all the major wars in recent years were started by religious fanatics on both sides. Yeah, I could Bush and Blair. They thought the imaginary man in the sky was on their side too.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  23. Re:Military-Industrial Complex by NoImNotNineVolt · · Score: 2

    I've worked for a defense contractor for about five years now. I took the job because it seemed more interesting (in a nerdy way) than other software development opportunities (mind-numbing back-end "business" shit) I saw. Of course, I could've (maybe) gotten a gig at a NASA or NSF lab, which would in theory have just as interesting of work.

    However, when I interned at NASA years and years ago, the one thing that I remembered was the parking lots. They were filled exclusively with ancient, shitty, cheap cars. Either not a single person at GSFC appreciated the amazing engineering of the world's finer automobiles (I found this unlikely), or NASA doesn't pay for shit. I like nice cars (currently driving my second consecutive Honda Accord, as my priorities have changed, but I've had some fun cars before these), and it didn't look like federal science funding was going to enable a lifestyle that I could enjoy.

    So here I am now, part of the machine. Part of the problem Eisenhower warned us about. How does that make me feel? Well, not too bad, honestly. Not because I'm some heartless bastard, happy to have my greed satisfied at the expense of the taxpayer and the brownskin. Not because I achieved membership in some cabal of murderous bastards. Mostly because I get to do interesting work (well, not nearly as interesting as I had hoped) and get paid a fair wage (virtually all the developers I know that work on the commercial side of the world make considerably more than me).

    To be honest, I've seen some waste in my years here. However, it's not any more waste than is common in any industry. Nobody's perfect, and sometimes money goes towards something that ends up being a bit of a boondoggle. At a mom n pop restaurant, you may see a foolhardy investment in interior decor that eventually turns out to have been a waste of money. Due to issues of scale, when the DOD makes a mistake like that, it's an aircraft nobody wants that costs insane amounts of money. Fundamentally, it's the same problem. Nobody's perfect, and people make mistakes. I understand that it's frustrating to see someone making costly mistakes with your tax dollars, but that's just the nature of the beast. Do not attribute to malice that which can be sufficiently explained by incompetence.

    Anyway, I've seen no evidence of any systemic problems with the military-industrial complex. Probably because I'm just a code monkey, not some head honcho cozying up to generals to land contracts. I wouldn't be surprised that this type of shit happens. But you really have to step back sometimes and realize that defense contractors are no different than any other contractors. Sure, they're looking for someone to pay them to do work. Aren't virtually all other industries as well? Is there something wrong with contractors offering various products and services to the DOD? Is there something wrong with the DOD buying into products and services that they find appealing? What benefit is it to the DOD to keep contractors fat and happy? I mean, it's a compelling narrative, for sure. I just haven't seen any evidence that it corresponds to reality.

    Also, fuck beta.

    --
    Chuuch. Preach. Tabernacle.
  24. When a military becomes too invulnerable.... by sugarmatic · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...and asymmetric, then the only legitimate targets for an adversary become the public citizens that fund the efforts.

    If no military response can ever be effective, it is the only thing left. We call it terrorism now, but it will be business as usual in the near future. Drones bombing your weddings?

    Bomb their weddings. And schools and anything else.

    The only limits to empire are consequences. When an empire can inflict with no fear of retribution to overtly military assets, other targets of retribution will be placed at risk.

  25. Re:Bee Keepers and the Audience by RubberDogBone · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The core, loyal, long time users need to be generating some revenue, because that's all that matters to sites like this. Sure, they may have core, loyal, long time users. But companies would cash in all of them for some knitting forums if that would bring in revenue somehow.

    Or to use a more relevant example, the news site Newsvine once had many core, loyal, long time users who contributed stories to the site much as we have editors here submitting stories (several times over in most cases). The community at Newsvine thrived on the discussion model and generally had a good time even when there was disagreement.

    Then MSNBC bought Newsvine, let it become a festering cesspool of political attacks -imagine if EVERY story on /. became red state versus blue, and insightful posts were reduced to the commentary version of apes flinging poo. Sure Slashdot has some of that. But imagine it ALL like that. That's what Newsvine became. And then, they used it to develop what is now the current NBC news website. You need to see it. Oh golly you should see it.

    All of that crap was done in the name of generating revenue. That's what happens when dollar signs become the most important thing. Dice is already heading that way with Slashdot. Eventually they will push the button and flush Slashdot. Cash is king. And we don't generate enough. I don't think we ever could either because no matter WHAT we do, there will always be this thought in their heads that they can get more money, if only... if only they do THIS or sell THAT.

    --
    Sig for hire.