Slashdot Mirror


SpaceX Wants To Go To Mars — and Has a Plan To Get There

mknewman writes with an article at NASA SpaceFlight which lays out the details of a plan from SpaceX to send a craft to Mars, using an in-development engine ("Raptor") along with the company's Super Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle. "Additionally, Mr. Musk also introduced the mysterious MCT project, which he later revealed to be an acronym for Mars Colonial Transport. This system would be capable of transporting 100 colonists at a time to Mars, and would be fully reusable. Article is technically dense but he does seem to follow through on his promises!" This is an endeavor that's been on Elon Musk's mind for a while.

236 comments

  1. Perhaps Mars One and Space X are tighter than we t by ModernGeek · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I'm wondering if the Mars One project hasn't had a more complex working relationship than previously thought. For all we know, Mars One could just be a separatist marketing arm of Elon Musk.

    --
    Sig: I stole this sig.
  2. Make no small dreams. by the+eric+conspiracy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Elon Musk = D.D. Harriman, only with bigger dreams.

    And not a fictional character.

    1. Re:Make no small dreams. by westlake · · Score: 1

      Elon Musk = D.D. Harriman, only with bigger dreams.

      and fewer resources.

    2. Re:Make no small dreams. by Runaway1956 · · Score: 1

      "And not a fictional character."

      Wait - huh - WUT?! Are you implying that Robert wrote FICTION!?!?! I'm not believing it for one second!

      --
      "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
    3. Re:Make no small dreams. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What I do not understand is why no one is thinking about building an interplanetary craft?

      Why do we want/need to launch from Earth to Mars with one system? Why not launch to LEO/ISS then board a craft that was designed solely for space and fly that to Mars. Then use some kind of lander/return vehicle to go down to the surface and return to Mars orbit.

      Hell, you could connect a couple of tubes together and put a rocket/VASIMIR on the end and go.

    4. Re:Make no small dreams. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      First, quit thinking VASIMR. It will NEVER power ppl from one planet to another. The fact is, that it requires a lot of electricity and even with solar cells from 10 years out, or with nuke technology, the craft will be too heavy to carry ppl efficiently to another planet. Do note that VASIMR COULD work going towards the sun with solar, and it deliver cargo around as well.

      Secondly, had you read the article, you would know that MCT is Mars Colonial Transport and supposedly will hold around 100 ppl. They will use raptor engines, though Musk is begging CONgress and Obama to restart NERVA.
      Sadly, we have the neo-cons/tea* fighting against private space, and dems fighting against nuke engines. What a sad joke.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    5. Re:Make no small dreams. by LVSlushdat · · Score: 1

      Everybody seems to have forgotten that there are two additional space stations currently in orbit besides ISS.. They're the Bigelow Aerospace Genesis I/II habitats, that were launched WAY back in 2006/2007. http://www.bigelowaerospace.co... Bigelow is right here in North Las Vegas, and those habitats are still there and certainly could be commercial staging locations for Mars missions, with SpaceX getting everything into orbit. The ISS is great and all, but its encombered by too many governments.. To use ISS for staging an essentially commericial mission to Mars would be a lesson in futility.. If Musk/SpaceX got together with Bob Bigelow, at Bigelow Aerospace, great things might happen....

      --
      THANK YOU, Edward Snowden!! Americans owe you a debt of gratitude (whether they know it or not..)
    6. Re:Make no small dreams. by Teancum · · Score: 1

      Elon Musk and Robert Bigelow have been able to get together. In fact, Bigelow Aerospace has a couple flights on the SpaceX manifest, with a flight that is scheduled for some time next year (assuming SpaceX can push through some of its current customers that are scheduled for this year). I can only imagine that with a flight coming up so soon that the hardware which is going to fly on that rocket is near completion if not already finished.

      The largest hang-up right now for Robert Bigelow is that he is insisting on at least two different launch vehicles for passengers and crew made by different companies, both made in America flying on American hardware. In addition to the SpaceX Dragon (which still needs FAA-AST approval for commercial crew flights), there is the Boeing CST-100 that Robert Bigelow has dumped some money into as a joint partnership with Boeing. There are other companies developing spacecraft which could work as well, so it may turn out there may be multiple options for sending crews into space in the near future.

      Both the CST-100 and the Dragon are on the fast track to supplying crew flights for NASA astronauts to the ISS, so I think FAA-AST approval is going to be mostly pro forma once NASA has given their thumbs up. In other words, crewed space stations operated by Bigelow Aerospace is going to be happening very soon, at least within this decade if not on a much shorter time frame.

    7. Re:Make no small dreams. by luckymutt · · Score: 1

      Except that the 2 "habitats" that Bigelow launched are not habitable. They were for test launching/inflating, but they are not set up with any sort of life support. Those are still in development.
      It'd be great if Bigelow can carry on and I'd love to see Bigelow and SpaceX do something together.
      I haven't heard much of them the past few years, except that they are currently developing a habitat that would be rated for manned missions. I hope they are moving along with it.
      Although the next ting they should do is hire a web developer that isn't stuck in the late '90s. Cheese.

  3. Good by The+Cat · · Score: 2, Funny

    It's about time America started acting like America again.

    1. Re:Good by martin-boundary · · Score: 2

      It's about time America started acting like America again.

      I dunno, making grand plans and all that is great, but after the *actual* work gets outsourced to China, how do we know they'll be *really* wearing USA T-shirts when they step on Mars on our behalf?

    2. Re:Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Providing faster than dial-up Internet access in most cities would be a more worthy goal. Considering we're stuck with dial-up in Seattle, there is definitely room for improvement.

    3. Re: Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am also in Seattle, and I just downloaded 2 games from steam at 1mbps... There are problems here though with regards to the market and associated politics

    4. Re: Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      that's the one thing that scares me off from moving to the west coast, slow internets. I heard the bay area doesn't even fiber everywhere and people are still using DSL? what the fuck...Verizon just bumped me up to 7MB a sec for an extra ten bucks a month...giving that up would fuckin' blow, can't decide what's worse, snow or slow ass internet.

    5. Re:Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Providing faster than dial-up Internet access in most cities would be a more worthy goal. Considering we're stuck with dial-up in Seattle, there is definitely room for improvement.

      Right, because we can only do one thing at a time! I private company *must not* spend their own money on exploring space or going to Mars until we've fixed problems A, B, and C!

    6. Re:Good by Runaway1956 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I don't think that this is "America", per se. This is more like "A small group of Americans", that small group consisting of Musk, his partners in crime, and his employees, with a few fanbois (like myself) thrown in for good measure. "America" is more concerned with petty nonsense, like appeasing the Muslims, gay marriage, and so-called "reality shows". And, that little freak who escaped protective custody in Canada - what's his name? Beiber?

      --
      "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
    7. Re:Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's the most trivial goal imaginable. People go to cities to cooperate because they aren't capable of any quality thoughts themselves. There's no reason to have that cost of living if you are capable of more and in such an event it's more important those people speak more.

    8. Re:Good by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Right, because we can only do one thing at a time! I private company *must not* spend their own money on exploring space or going to Mars until we've fixed problems A, B, and C!

      Nobody said that, and broadband penetration in the USA is pathetic, and frankly we cannot claim to be a modern nation while it's so poor. At best, we can claim to have some forward thinkers.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    9. Re:Good by michael021689 · · Score: 2

      There is little I enjoy more than the timeless argument and ceaseless complaints about the USA being deficient compared to higher population density countries in services (such as mass transit and broadband) that are dependent on high population density.

    10. Re:Good by ArcadeMan · · Score: 2

      They will be wearing USA t-shirts. Made in China.

    11. Re:Good by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      There is little I enjoy more than the timeless argument and ceaseless complaints about the USA being deficient compared to higher population density countries in services (such as mass transit and broadband) that are dependent on high population density.

      What a coincidence! There's nothing I enjoy more about excuses about the nation which invented the internet not managing decent penetration with its massive budget.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    12. Re:Good by ThatAblaze · · Score: 1

      This just in: The economy of the US now has mass, and lots of it!

    13. Re: Good by cbhacking · · Score: 1, Informative

      Seattle has Centurylink DSL (12Mbps where I live, better or worse depending on your distance from the infrastructure), cable (I don't know what they'll tell you speed-wise, I hate Comcast, but faster than the DSL), Clear WiMax (~10Mbps, last I checked), CondoInternet (specific buildings only, but it's at least 100Mbps), and a few other various options (including LTE from all of the Big 4). The eastside (and possibly other suburbs) can get FiOS from Frontier (I think they have 40+Mbps), and down south there are some other fiber options as well, or so I've heard.

      Now, out in the boonies, yeah it's going to suck. Sticking near the major metropolitan areas though, you can definitely get good service.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    14. Re:Good by camperdave · · Score: 1

      This just in: The economy of the US now has mass, and lots of it!

      You didn't think that just because it is fiat currency that all those coins and bills were weightless, did you?

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    15. Re: Good by buybuydandavis · · Score: 1

      Some of the Eastside can get FIOS. Verizon sold off their properties to Frontier, who will milk them for years to come, but will never expand.

      Meanwhile, Gigabit Seattle folded up shop before ever connecting a single user.

      There's no real competition to Comcast in the Seattle area.

    16. Re:Good by Issarlk · · Score: 1

      While you are at it, provinding food and means to grow more to all the humans would be a more worthy goal, and I am sure you agree 100% and will endure having dial up in the meantime.

    17. Re:Good by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      "Priorities" is the traditional argument against having the US government explore space. For s private company, it's their own goddamn business. This is why robber barons are good, not evil. In the nineteenth century they gave us steel mills and railroads - and just as a hobby incidental, a whole system of public libraries. May this century's robber barons take us to Mars.

    18. Re:Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's about time America started acting like America again.

      You mean in another pointless space race? No thanks, that already bankrupted us.

      Going to Mars from the Earth is a wholly uneconomic exercise in showing off your tech penis to retards who admire such things. It costs hundreds of billions of dollars and does nothing but deprive a real space program of funding. Everything used in the effort will eventually be destroyed, scrapped, abandoned or placed into a museum. Here's a clue, guy: You can't build a transportation system when you keep junking the system's components almost completely.

      I used to be a space freak, probably much like you. THEN I GREW UP. Economics is the only rational reason to do anything, and space efforts like this aren't economic at all. Anything done in space that doesn't serve a direct economic purpose, is just wasted effort. Why do you think your Apollo program was scrapped? That your Shuttles stopped flying?

    19. Re:Good by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Yeah, since the neo-cons created tax benefits to send our manufacturing out of the nation, the MBA's have been doing that. Of course, those companies are being gutted by their host nations.
      And you will note that SpaceX, Tesla, And Solar city have less than 10 MBA amongst the 3 companies. Does that tell you something?

      IOW, these 3 companies will continue to exists for a LONG LONG time. Even now, Tesla is pulling battery manufacturing back to America and Solar City is getting ready to announce a NEW solar plant that will be heavily automated and cheaper costs than what China can produce.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    20. Re:Good by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      No, America is LOADED with forward thinkers. The problem is, that many of them step aside for MBA's to take over, who run for the SURE short-term dollar, rather than the LIKELY long-term dollars.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    21. Re:Good by WindBourne · · Score: 2

      Actually, Robber Barons of today would be GE, Comcast, IBM/MS, etc. NONE of them are good for America (or where they are moving to). And the Robber Barons of the past were Robber Barons because once they had monopolies, they threw their weight around and destroyed innovation. That, in no small part, lead to the great depression. Once sanity returned, they passed 3 important legislation:
      1) regulate banks so that access to money was guaranteed, which CONgress destroyed.
      2) disallow executives of public companies from owning stock in the company. That kept them from looking for short-term deals. This was killed by reagan, and is the at the core of offshoring important jobs.
      3) disallowed monopolies since these destroyed innovative. Again, this was destroyed by reagan.

      All 3 of these things need to be restored.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    22. Re:Good by The+Cat · · Score: 2

      No thanks, that already bankrupted us.

      Ignorance is mankind's biggest problem.

      Anything done in space that doesn't serve a direct economic purpose, is just wasted effort.

      Stupidity is mankind's second biggest problem.

    23. Re:Good by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Monopolies cannot arise in a free market, because for any lucrative business, competition always springs up. To get monopoly power today, you have to take government officials out for squab and cigars, and arrange for the force of law to prevent others from competing with you. GE and Comcast became monopolies by doing exactly that. When they impose self-serving restrictions on your ability to stream their content, they enforce high prices and restrictive policies.

      IBM is not a good example at all for your argument, because it never had a monopoly, even in the mainframe days. I can remember the BUNCH (Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell) as competitors. IBM prospered during this time because its mainframes were actually better than anyone else's. As computers went mini and then micro, all vestiges of IBM's market power disappeared, and it never came back.

      Now let's look at an actual modern monopoly: the medical industry. It's ludicrously overpriced because pharma companies use the FDA's enforcement powers to keep competition of the market and to even prevent consumers from shopping around for the same drugs being offered in lower-cost markets.

      Drug and device testing is a vital function, but if we stripped the FDA of its power to keep products off the market, making its approvals advisory, not mandatory, and to allow consumers to shop around, medicine would slide down the learning curve just as semiconductors did, and in general become as cheap and innovative as the IT industry. People would still be free to take a conservative approach and buy only FDA-approved products, but those willing to a little more adventurous would enjoy vastly lower prices.

      And did you know that in most states it is illegal for a consumer to get a list of hospital prices for various procedures? This is a classic application of governmental monopoly power, and is the reason why even a routine appendectomy varies wildly in price from one hospital to another.

    24. Re:Good by Jeremi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Monopolies cannot arise in a free market, because for any lucrative business, competition always springs up.

      Utter nonsense. In an unregulated market, any sufficiently large company will be tempted to use its resources to exclude competition, e.g. by temporary selling its products at a loss where/whenever a competitor appears, until that competitor runs out of money and goes out of business, at which point prices can be jacked up again. No subversion of government is required to keep the competitors out, only a large-enough cash reserve.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    25. Re:Good by Teancum · · Score: 1

      Solar City has decided to get into the panel/cell manufacturing business? That is news to me, as it is a very rough and competitive market that until now they've deliberately stayed out of because of the cut-throat competition and even industrial espionage going on with that industry.

      What Solar City does perform is total system integration and installation.

      I'd love to put one of the Solar City systems on my house, but unfortunately they haven't been able or willing to deal with my state government yet, in spite of several neighboring states who do have installation programs and sales reps. I guess I need to be patient.

    26. Re:Good by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Ye olde "cutthroat competition" argument. Consumers win when this actually happens, but nobody has the capital to keep selling below cost indefinitely. We see this argument trotted out by old, small, dowdy downtown shops that suddenly have to deal with the opening of a new Walmart out by the Interstate. WM is not selling below cost; it just does a more effient job of selling mass market goods.

      But now look at any place where Walmart has built a new location: it brings massive traffic, and a whole new generation of small specialty shops springs up right next to it: bright, clean, up-to-date places where real people like to shop. There are fast-food restaurants in the WM, but a market for upscale specialty eateries arises next door. WM sells cheap groceries, but the best place to put a new Sprouts or Hadley's is...right next to the Walmart.

      An example of this effect: Bell Road at 59th Avenue, Glendale, AZ..

    27. Re:Good by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Robert, That is all going to change in 2015. We have solar city on our house. I was gripping about the use of Chinese panels, and several of the engineers indicated that Solar City has been waiting for Solar to get cheap enough so that they can bring it in-house along with a large amount of automation.
      BTW, when we buy our tesla (waiting to see the model X, and will then decide which), it will be integrated with the solar system so that if we lose electricity, then during the daytime, we will have 2-3 circuits on it, as well as charging the Tesla, and then at nighttime, it will borrow from the car. Pretty cool.
      You will also like that SOlar City is going to expand beyond solar. They are going into energy, including geo-thermal.
      In fact, I talked to one of their engineers about how to modify fracking to make it useful for geo-thermal. Basically, the standard approach is vertical down to the same levels within the reservoir, turn horizontal, frack and then pump it in. BUT, if you do not do a LARGE frack, and add one more line that goes down deeper (below the reservoir), frack that one hard, and then use that to force the oil/gas into the upper piping, you can use this once the well is dry, for geo-thermal. And the nice approach is that the collectors are not fracked hard, so it will not force other elements into the aquifers.

      Regardless, one thing about Musk, that man is damn exciting.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    28. Re:Good by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      places where real people like to shop

      This statement, and your handle...'nuff said.

    29. Re:Good by delt0r · · Score: 2

      Ever heard of barriers to entry? For example, deciding you pay too much for electricty and creating your own electric company just doesn't work. Too much captial needed. Its a huge barrier to entry.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    30. Re:Good by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Actually, you're totally free to generate your own electricity if you think the utility is charging too much. I know several people, well-off retired engineers in a sunny climate, who have sunk a great deal of personal capital into residential solar, and love tinkering with their systems.

      The fact that the great majority of people do NOT take this option testifies to the economy of scale of grid-distributed energy.

    31. Re:Good by Quila · · Score: 1

      A monopoly can arise, but the market will still eventually kill it. Standard Oil's monopoly was almost gone anyway by the time of the breakup. And while it was bad for other companies, that monopoly led to lower overall prices for the consumer through efficiency of operation.

      Other monopolies are govenrment-created and can't be fixed by the market. A good example is Ma Bell.

    32. Re:Good by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      As does your statement and, in particular, your handle.

    33. Re:Good by Optali · · Score: 1

      Nope! The will be imported from China but made in Vietnam by 10 year olds fed with dog meat!

      --
      -- 29A the number of the Beast
    34. Re:Good by Shalhav · · Score: 1

      Yeah, since the neo-cons created tax benefits to send our manufacturing out of the nation ...

      Outsourcing has little impact on the number of jobs in the U.S. Furthermore it isn't exclusively neocons that have supported it. Clinton signed NAFTA and Obama is pushing new free trade agreements. But artificial measures to prevent outsourcing definitely do make the job situation worse because it reduces incentives for competitiveness. Also don't forget that we benefit from other country's outsourcing. Think of people who work for Toyota and Honda.

      Solar City is getting ready to announce a NEW solar plant that will be heavily automated and cheaper costs than what China can produce.

      We'll see. If they do, good for them. But if they don't, guess what would make more sense, to go back to outsourcing, or prop up a failing business?

  4. uh by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    Article is technically dense but

    But?? No but, that's actually what we want here on Slashdot!

    he does seem to follow through on his promises!

    I wouldn't go that far.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  5. Orbital Sciences and SpaceX are the real players. by Frosty+Piss · · Score: 4, Informative

    SpaceX, more than any other of the "private" space companies, has shown a compentencey for building rockets.

    My Ass Is Blue, or whatever the pipe dream that Jeff Bezos is dumping money into, is not a player, not just for Mars, but for any real space flight.

    Orbital Sciences and SpaceX are the real players.

    --
    If you want news from today, you have to come back tomorrow.
  6. Boldly going to the 1960s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is it me or is space just nostalgia at this point?

    1. Re: Boldly going to the 1960s by mknewman · · Score: 2

      It's just you.

    2. Re:Boldly going to the 1960s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      No space x isn't doing anything Nasa wasn't already doing in the 60's. You are mistaking that sense of nostalgia for deja vi.

    3. Re:Boldly going to the 1960s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Deja emacs, you troll.

  7. Groovy ... by TrollstonButterbeans · · Score: 1, Informative

    Groovy ... but before I care, SpaceX needs to first have humans in space.

    Then I'll give a quid about their plans for space travel.

    I mean, if they haven't done a manned space flight to outside the atmosphere, it is far-fetched to be running before you can walk or even stand.

    The end.

    --
    Priest: "Universe from nothing, no laws of physics, sped up time"+ huge discrepancies. Creationism? No. Big Bang Theory
    1. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why is putting humans into a forbidding, empty, hostile radiation-blasted hell so important?

    2. Re:Groovy ... by ColdWetDog · · Score: 5, Funny

      Why is putting humans into a forbidding, empty, hostile radiation-blasted hell so important?

      Because it's there.

      --
      Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
    3. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because there's not enough room here.

    4. Re:Groovy ... by blueturffan · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Groovy ... but before I care, SpaceX needs to first have humans in space.

      Then I'll give a quid about their plans for space travel.

      I mean, if they haven't done a manned space flight to outside the atmosphere, it is far-fetched to be running before you can walk or even stand.

      The end.

      When Kennedy made his famous "We choose to go to the moon" speech, the USA had exactly 1 successful manned spaceflight - that being Alan Shepard's 15-minute suborbital hop. SpaceX has multiple successful launches, and are working on a manned version of their Dragon spacecraft.

      What Musk is doing is pointing to a finish line that will take many years to accomplish. There will likely be setbacks along the way, but like Kennedy he's setting a grand vision -- hopefully I'll see that vision realized in my lifetime.

    5. Re:Groovy ... by KingOfBLASH · · Score: 2

      Because while this pretty blue marble we live on is mostly always habitable, there are points in its history when mass extinction events wipe out the majority of the occupants and cause everyone to start over. Sometimes inhabitants (like us) cause our own mass extinction events (interesting fact, we're killing off enough species and messing the planet up enough that we are in a period of mass extinction).

      So, for survivability of our species, we really should start expanding beyond our planet (and our solar system).

      And, since we don't actually know when the next mass extinction will happen, the sooner we get off this rock the better.

    6. Re:Groovy ... by Chas · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Because there's not enough room here.

      Bullshit. If it weren't for human greed, this planet could easily support a population TWICE what it is today.

      There's plenty of physical space on the planet to house everyone with plenty of space so that people aren't stacked like sardines.

      Also, shipping people off to another planet to build dinky little concrete bunkers as "outposts" is no solution either.
      We need the technology to actually turn Mars into a truly habitable, usable world. Even if the surface is a wasteland.

      The big bullet points are this.

      1: Sending people to Mars isn't a huge deal. We could do it today if we wanted.
      2: Sending the equipment and supplies necessary to set up a sustainable colony is, at this point, VASTLY prohibitive.
      3: In addition you have the same problems for transporting the fuel and supplies necessary for a full RETURN TRIP as well in case of disaster. Whatever the bright eyed suicide wannabes think, we shouldn't be sending people to Mars with "death" being the only way off the planet.

      In short, it might be better to build a colony satellite in Mars orbit first. This way you can shuttle people to and from the planet, as well as set up as a resupply depot without the massive physical hurdles of precision landing fragile gear and supplies on-planet. So, a couple of closely spaced (pun unintentional) two-way missions with the hulls for the beginnings of a space station. And more modules can be brought in with future missions.

      Continue this way until it's we have a safety net to build a sizeable facility on-planet.
      Once the on-planet facility is built and vetted, move a portion of the supplies on-planet.

      Slower, but much safer in the long run than just shooting people out to the planet to die.

      --


      Chas - The one, the only.
      THANK GOD!!!
    7. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why is putting humans into a forbidding, empty, hostile radiation-blasted hell so important?

      The same thing that always causes white flight. Hey, Musk is from South Africa, he knows what the score is!

    8. Re:Groovy ... by michael021689 · · Score: 1

      I think that you are looking at this in an overly negative way. Going to live another place isn't the same as going somewhere to die despite the similar actions taken. Someone going to a small colony on Mars would be no different from Polynesians crossing oceans or people packing up and moving across the continent in 1800s. Leaving behind an old life is not the same as throwing away your life.

    9. Re:Groovy ... by sconeu · · Score: 1

      Mod parent up.

      George Mallory knew it. Hell, Robert Burns knew it back in the 1700s. "A man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?"

      --
      General Relativity: Space-time tells matter where to go; Matter tells space-time what shape to be.
    10. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Err. No. If we are responsible for the extinction of other species, it's time for us to stop doing that. Escapism isn't the way to tackle life's problems, and we won't escape our propensity for stupidity by shifting locations.

      And if external events are of concern to you, note that even at the height of those events, the Earth was more habitable than anywhere else. Even as the asteroids rained down, even as dust plumed into the stratosphere and temperatures first rose, then plunged, the earth remain more habitable than any place that is "not-earth". If you are concerned for the survival of the species, you should be urging us to stay.

    11. Re:Groovy ... by cbhacking · · Score: 5, Insightful

      TWICE, eh? Look up the doubling time on world population. Hell, I'll do it for you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W...
      The short version is, given enough resources, the human population can now double more than once just in a single lifetime. We expect to hit a peak at around 2025 - that's barely over a decade away, now - but if we instead did away with that "human greed" you claim would allow supporting twice as many people, that would give a reprieve of somewhere between 20 years (assuming the historical trend of "each doubling takes half the time of the one before" holds) to possibly as much as 50 years (the estimate for the time to get from half the predicted 2025 pop to 2025). Then we're full up, again.

      Aside from your 3rd point, which is frankly stupid (we've been sending people into space without an escape option for half a century now even though recovery from low earth orbit isn't nearly as hard, and yeah, sometimes they died...) the rest of what you say is probably true enough, or at least worth considering. But the argument that we could double the Earth's carrying capacity, as though that would grant more than a few decades reprieve, is bogus. We need a better option.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    12. Re:Groovy ... by TuringCheck · · Score: 4, Interesting
      Isn't "death" the only way off this planet too?

      Besides, colonisation of planets requires people reproducing there, as a result their descendanta being unable to live on Earrh. Sending people by rocket is too expensive to be used for population export.

    13. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When Kennedy made his famous "We choose to go to the moon" speech, the USA had exactly 1 successful manned spaceflight

      Still one more than Space X. That and the power to print money without breaking the law.

    14. Re:Groovy ... by taiwanjohn · · Score: 5, Informative

      working on a manned version of their Dragon spacecraft.

      As you probably know, the current Dragon is already capable of carrying humans, it's just not "man-rated" yet because it lacks a launch-abort escape system. They will probably begin manned test flights by the end of 2015.

      In the meantime, SpaceX continues to push the envelope on other fronts. Next weekend's CRS-3 launch will have landing legs, and attempt a "soft splashdown" in the ocean. By next year they could be regularly recovering and reusing the F9 first stage, which would dramatically reduce the cost of spaceflight. That alone would be a game changer, but that's just one of many innovations they're working on.

      I'm just old enough to remember the Apollo program, and to me, the last couple of years have been the most exciting period of space exploration since the early 80s. The Shuttle was supposed to usher in the era of reusable spacecraft, but it turned out to be far more difficult than expected. Instead of 50 flights per year, we were lucky to get even a 10th of that volume. We've been stuck in LEO ever since. Right now, SpaceX is well positioned to be the first to give us the ability to get beyond that again.

      I can hardly wait!

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    15. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      The same argument can be used for sending cows into space, or muffins, or lighthouses. Why would you send a lighthouse into space? Because it's there.

    16. Re:Groovy ... by TFAFalcon · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Settling space doesn't imply abandoning Earth. It just increases the chance that at least some humans will survive in case something takes out Earth.

    17. Re:Groovy ... by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      It also implies expanding the box of our thinking about survivability.

      You don't just take humans to other worlds - you take fauna and flora of all shapes and sizes as well.

      It also implies a lot of other very useful advancements in our industrial base - for one thing, anything which encourages a stable off-world resource and industrial operation is a huge advancement for the biosphere here on Earth, since it means we can think about permanently moving polluting or risky processes off the planet entirely (not to mention, potentially bootstrap through to a resource environment much richer then the one we're currently in).

    18. Re:Groovy ... by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      As you probably know, the current Dragon is already capable of carrying humans, it's just not "man-rated" yet because it lacks a launch-abort escape system. They will probably begin manned test flights by the end of 2015.

      The first two tests required for man-rating Dragon are scheduled for this year.

      Note that the are unmanned missions, testing the launch-escape system.

      I'm just old enough to remember the Apollo program, and to me, the last couple of years have been the most exciting period of space exploration since the early 80s.

      Ditto. Ten when Armstrong took his "small step".

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    19. Re:Groovy ... by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      Because we've done it before. We even built a city there, which we called Las Vegas.

    20. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and we won't escape our propensity for stupidity by shifting locations.

      But it'll buy us a little more time, always staying one step ahead of the destruction in our wake.

    21. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it's "The Golden Path".

    22. Re:Groovy ... by Oceanplexian · · Score: 1

      If I were to put my money on something, it wouldn't be a non-redundant system with more single points of failure than your average unpatched Windows XP desktop.

      The Earth has a vast history of extinction events, conservation or not. Humans have quite successfully endured by 'shifting locations'.

    23. Re:Groovy ... by Chas · · Score: 1

      I think that you are looking at this in an overly negative way.

      This is open space. Fuckups kill you. Fuckups kill other people. Fuckups waste LOTS of money (especially if lawsuits get involved).

      Playing it safe is the RIGHT way to do it. The days of just shooting people out and hoping to *insert primal mover of your choice* you thought of everything and nothing goes wrong. The days of having to be crazy AND have balls of solid unobtainium are over. While spontaneously producing corpsicle asteroids can STILL be viewed as "educational", I think we're at the point where a bit of circumspection is more in order (measure twice, cut once).

      [quote]Going to live another place isn't the same as going somewhere to die despite the similar actions taken. Someone going to a small colony on Mars would be no different from Polynesians crossing oceans or people packing up and moving across the continent in 1800s. Leaving behind an old life is not the same as throwing away your life.

      Big difference, you're not relocating to a still-habitable island in the middle of nowhere.
      You're going to a dead planet where the only things keeping you alive are WHAT YOU BRING WITH YOU. And you can't even swim home, due to "outer space".

      --


      Chas - The one, the only.
      THANK GOD!!!
    24. Re:Groovy ... by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      Someone going to a small colony on Mars would be no different from Polynesians crossing oceans or people packing up and moving across the continent in 1800s.

      If Mars was like California, that would be true. But in fact Mars has no biosphere, little atmosphere, little water, and few accessible natural resources.

      Fun fact #1: People living in Antarctica commonly suffer from severe depression due to the fact that they have to spend 6 months of the year indoors with little natural light and not much to do.

      Fun fact #2: For humans, Antarctica is a veritable Garden of Eden compared to Mars.

      Fun fact #3: People living in Antarctica have the option of returning home at end of the winter if they can't handle it. People living on Mars will have no such option, and therefore very little to look forward to other than more of the same until they die.

      Prediction: The #1 cause of death on Mars will be suicide. The #2 cause of death on Mars will be homicide.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    25. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      Settling space doesn't imply abandoning Earth.

      Using somewhere 'off earth' as a life boat implies you have lift capacity and enduring off earth capacity to handle the whole population of earth - otherwise, to be brutally honest, you are planning for a scenario in which lots of people die, and promoting this plan above plans in which lots of people don't. Which leads to a few questions:

      1. Where is this 'off earth' place that will support the earths population indefinitely whilst the earth recovers from this catastrophe?

      2. In the absence of such a place, which races of people will be preferenced? Which cultural memories will be preserved, and which forgotten?

      It just increases the chance that at least some humans will survive in case something takes out Earth.

      How many, precisely?

      And what is this thing you perceive will take out the earth yet not threaten other places in the inner solar system? There has only been one occasion when something of that severity happened, and that was when a collision caused the creation of the moon. That was so long ago there was no atmosphere anyway. Post that time there have been disasters, but as I noted previously, throughout those disasters the earth remained more habitable than anywhere else in the Solar System.

      Which suggests that in the event of a disaster, we should preference doing nothing over leaving. And that is not taking into accoutn obviosu survival strategies, like digging deep holes into the crust, and living there temporarily.

      Tell me (precisely) where this logic is wrong.

    26. Re:Groovy ... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      The same argument can be used for sending cows into space, or muffins, or lighthouses. Why would you send a lighthouse into space? Because it's there.

      Who says that cows, muffins, or lighthouses won't be in space? I can see practical reasons for sending all three.

      A lighthouse in space might not look like a lighthouse on the Earth, but can and will exist in some form in the future.

      Try for a better example, because this one has utterly failed.

    27. Re:Groovy ... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      Someone going to a small colony on Mars would be no different from Polynesians crossing oceans or people packing up and moving across the continent in 1800s.

      If Mars was like California, that would be true.

      If you are going to use California as an example, keep in mind that the original Spanish settlement of Buena Vista (modern-day Los Angeles) completely died out because everybody died from starvation and thirst from a lack of water. The only way California is able to sustain its current population is strictly because it can import a large amount of its food from elsewhere (in spite of being a net food exporter as a state) and because of the technology which sustains the current population of the state.

      California is in fact proof that through the use of advanced technology we can take an inhospitable wilderness which is determined to kill off everybody who lives there and turn it into a place where morons and idiots can survive and thrive.

      Perhaps my ancestors (who were some early residents of California) did too good of a job teraforming California and making it a nice place to live. I promise that the Polynesians traveling from Tonga or Samoa and made the trip to Hawaii would not have been capable of setting up a survivable settlement in the Los Angeles basin at the same time Hawaii was first being settled.

    28. Re:Groovy ... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      When Kennedy made his famous "We choose to go to the moon" speech, the USA had exactly 1 successful manned spaceflight

      Still one more than Space X. That and the power to print money without breaking the law.

      The only thing keeping SpaceX from sending people up into space on the Dragon is the lack of approval by the U.S. government, specifically the FAA-AST. I believe Elon Musk when he points out that putting seats in the Dragon and launching it with a crew on the next CRS flight (which will be in a couple of weeks) would already be safer than it was for the astronauts traveling on the Space Shuttle.

      There is a launch escape system that SpaceX has currently in development, and is going to perform a test of that system later on this year. It is going to happen soon enough that it is reasonable to check regularly with the Patrick AFB website or upcoming NASA flights for more details.

    29. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      Sure.

      Because it's there

      The same argument can be made for an Escalator to Nowhere, a 50 ft magnifying glass or a Popsicle Stick Skyscraper We should build them "because we can".

      In other words, your argument is ridiculous, it sounds ridiculous, it would be ridiculous, it would be remembered in perpetuity as ridiculous. You might have faith that the future of humanity depends on having a base on Mars. We don't share your faith. Come up with an objective, non faith based reason to do it, and we may listen.

    30. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      If I were to give my money to someone, it wouldn't be someone advocating that I sell my mainframe and replace it with an arduino board of unknown provenance but a pervasive smell of ozone and a promise that one day it will run mainframe systems based on some vague plan involving a coat hanger.

      You see mainframes have built in redundancy. They have processing power. That's kind of important if you need to support many systems. It's true that a site disaster taking down the UPS will take the mainframe offline. But such site disasters are rare, whereas device failures, software failures and other small system problems are very common. The earth is a mainframe. Venus cloud cities, submarines on Europa and caves on Mars are like dodgy NT servers , unpatched, on unsupported hardware with a single hard drive on the point of failure. Just the smallest thing and they're gone. They support only a fraction of the power of the mainframe and thus, the notion that they'll serve as a mainframe replacement someday is frankly ridiculous.

    31. Re:Groovy ... by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      The only way California is able to sustain its current population is strictly because it can import a large amount of its food from elsewhere

      If that is true of California, won't it be even more true for Mars? California has lots of farmland -- Mars, not so much.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    32. Re:Groovy ... by TFAFalcon · · Score: 1

      Who said anything about a life boat? I'm suggesting we don't stick to only having one one ship. The colonies won't be empty all of the time and just waiting for the chance to save the highest bidders in the event of a disaster. They'll have their own populations. Hopefully high enough to be able to sustain humanity if the population of Earth dies.
        As for who will be 'allowed' to go live there - whoever volunteers. Life there won't be as easy as that on Earth, so I'm guessing the population will be mostly made up of those that are underpriviliged on Earth. And they'll move there a long time before we figure out that something is going to happen to the Earth.

      BTW how does your plan(living in deep holes) deal with your complains about saving only some of humanity and being racist/culturalist about it?

    33. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      I'm going to quote myself so that there is no confusion because, to be honest, your remarks don't entirely align with the conversation, as if you've only read the first half of the first sentence of what I said.

      Using somewhere 'off earth' as a life boat implies you have lift capacity and enduring off earth capacity to handle the whole population of earth - otherwise, to be brutally honest, you are planning for a scenario in which lots of people die, and promoting this plan above plans in which lots of people don't. Which leads to a few questions:

      Who said anything about a life boat? I'm suggesting we don't stick to only having one one ship. The colonies won't be empty all of the time and just waiting for the chance to save the highest bidders in the event of a disaster. They'll have their own populations. Hopefully high enough to be able to sustain humanity if the population of Earth dies.

      So (per above) how many deaths are acceptable to you in this scenario? 100 000? 4 million?

      A billion?

      The basic success measure of an emergency plan is to save as many lives as possible. How many lives will your off worlding plan actually save?

      As for who will be 'allowed' to go live there - whoever volunteers. Life there won't be as easy as that on Earth, so I'm guessing the population will be mostly made up of those that are underpriviliged on Earth.

      You have a flair for the under exaggerating! "Life there won't be as easy as that on Earth"?!? Your proposed colonists will never breath fresh air, never take a bath, never sit outside in the sun, never go to the theatre or a circus. They will be bombarded with damaging radiation, they will get cancers, for which they will receive sub standard treatment. they will most likely not be able to have children. They will live out their drastically shortened, neutered lives in lonely drudgery, in cramped quarters, gradually coming to understand that there really is nothing special about living in a plastic tank on a lifeless rock with no future. they will gaze hungrily on the earth but be unable to return, economically and medically, a short stint in zero or reduced gravity means the earth will kill you.

      So, yeah, not easy, and not made easier by the dawning realisation that it's pointless.

      BTW how does your plan(living in deep holes) deal with your complains about saving only some of humanity and being racist/culturalist about it?

      Well, as I said before and you didn't dispute it, if subjected to a serious collision the earth may be unliveable for a few days but it will still be more habitable than anywhere else. So even doing nothing has at least the same rate of survival as an off world colony. So the obviously default plan would be, everyone goes into shelter, specially rated buildings, or underground in reconditioned mines or specially designed facilities. We would only need to be there for maybe a week - after that time, the outside temperature will return to something, if not normal, at least quite liveable. We then emerge from the shelters, replant crops in the still fertile soil, watered by the still functioning water cycle, breathing the still breathable atmosphere. So i would conservatively say that this plan would save billions of people. With enough effort, we could save everybody. Somewhat of a better result than the off world plan, which would (temporarily) save a few hundred, and then die out shortly after.

    34. Re:Groovy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is no need to move the whole population off planet, just enough to ensure the survival of homo sapiens.

      Also, there have been many events throughout history that would probably have resulted in the extinction of the species. (Siberian traps, Chicxulub asteroid, etc.)
      Even the next Yellowstone eruption is a possible extinction event for us.

    35. Re:Groovy ... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      If that is true of California, won't it be even more true for Mars? California has lots of farmland -- Mars, not so much.

      Define farmland, and note that Mars has more surface area than all of the land on the Earth, and millions of metric tons of water as well that is even visible from modest telescopes on the Earth. It will take technology to make the water usable for farming, but it isn't that hard, and flat land capable of being farmed is also possible.

      You might be surprised at how much farmland can be created on Mars. One very likely view of what farms on Mars will look like can be found here:

      http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4UgDFk5Mego/UkRCQ1TG5SI/AAAAAAAAC8U/f9Ku2VzmGqQ/s1600/MartianOasis01-signe2000.jpg

    36. Re:Groovy ... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      I am not asking for your faith. I am merely asking you to shut up and get out of the way in terms of trying to stop those who want to do this kind of thing with their own dime. If you think this is a foolish task, don't bother participating and I will leave you alone to do whatever it is that you want to do or think is a better use of your time and resources.

      It pisses me off when people like you are forcing me to think this is impossible and are actively preventing me and others from even trying. It may be that such endeavors will fail, that people may even die in the process of trying. I just don't want to live in so safe of a world that even the attempt to reach out and do such things has been driven from humanity. I certainly can't stand having a gun placed against my head telling me to forget about this stuff and that I must conform to some dogma that the world is flat and that I need to shut up and be a faithful factory worker churning out your wonderful hunk of plastic crap.

    37. Re:Groovy ... by TFAFalcon · · Score: 1

      The number of acceptable deaths in this scenario is the whole of humanity-2 (or even 0 if we have machines that can keep the colony functional while growing the next generation of tube grown humans), since the scenario otherwise is the extinction of humanity. I'm not talking just about the situations where Earth survives as a planet. There are things out there that could destroy the planet itself. In that situation no amount of caves will save anyone there.

      As for the quality of life I repeat, volunteers. People are willing to do many crazy things if it means they get to do them first. And why do you suddenly forget about caves when it comes to other planets (or moons)? If they can live in caves on Earth then they can live in caves elsewhere. That helps with the whole radiation and no children bit, so the situation suddenly becomes not so pointless.

      Again your plan only includes the fairly benign disasters that could happen, and even for those you're wildly optimistic. Exactly how many shelters do you think humanity is likely to build? I'd be surprised if we even reach enough for a million people to survive for a few months unless there is a clear indication that something is going to hit us (and by that time there is likely to be no time to build anything new). Just look at what such relatively common disasters as tidal waves or hurricanes can do and how well humanity is prepared for them. (BTW how would you decide who goes into these shelters, since you're so worried about discimination).

      The point of the offworld colonies that they can function as shelters for humanity without that being their primary purpose. They can be built as research stations or even eventually for profit, but still save at least some small number of humans in case something very bad happens.

       

    38. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      I am not asking for your faith. I am merely asking you to shut up and get out of the way in terms of trying to stop those who want to do this kind of thing with their own dime. If you think this is a foolish task, don't bother participating and I will leave you alone to do whatever it is that you want to do or think is a better use of your time and resources.

      It should be clear from the context that I'm not the least concerned about people who want to go on their own dime. Just like any other hobby - model trains, stamp collecting, base jumping, you are free to do so on your own dime and even engage in calculated risks,

      There is a problem though, with imagining that taking risks makes you a hero. It doesn't. Sacrificing your life for a hobby doesn't ennoble that hobby, stop pretending it does.

      There is also a problem with groups that solicit money from others making promises that we know they cannot keep. Like Mars One. We all have a role in ensuring that those scams/ineptitudes are exposed before people get ripped off.

    39. Re:Groovy ... by Teancum · · Score: 1

      There is a problem though, with imagining that taking risks makes you a hero. It doesn't. Sacrificing your life for a hobby doesn't ennoble that hobby, stop pretending it does.

      There is also a problem with groups that solicit money from others making promises that we know they cannot keep. Like Mars One. We all have a role in ensuring that those scams/ineptitudes are exposed before people get ripped off.

      You claim that you don't care about people doing stuff like BASE jumping, mountain climbing up Mt. Everest, or doing other potentially life threatening things, yet you complain about people going into space on their own dime.... with or without voluntary sponsorships from others. Yet here you go and say precisely the opposite.

      It is the same thing for those who want to go into space.

      As for Mars One, I think those guys are full of it and don't know what they are doing, and legitimate engineers and even fans are trying to offer help yet it is being rejected in favor of fluff and pomp. That is why Mars One is going to fail, not because they are trying to attempt something foolish. I'll also agree that there will be scam artists and people with less than honorable intentions who are trying to milk those with a dream of someday working and living in space, some of whom have some serious money to offer as well.

      Still, what you fail to realize is that there is a good chance that with enough effort, brains, and attention to details that some of these project which are being proposed can succeed. I can't say if Elon Musk and his crazy idea of going to Mars is going to succeed or not, but one thing that certainly distinguishes him from Mars One is that he has put stuff into space, vehicles are orbiting the Earth right now that have been put there with his companies, with several billion dollars worth of money from people who do not lightly spend that kind of money already committed to sending much more into space on his rockets. I think that should count for something, which seems like you are casually dismissing too.

      Again, I am not asking you for anything explicitly other than to suggest if you want to help, work with me and others who want to go into space. If you think it is stupid, move along so you don't get in my way. And please, give me the permission and opportunity to do this kind of stuff instead of holding a gun to my head and telling me I can't go into space. It doesn't matter if you do it personally or have laws enacted and a government thug does that instead... it is the same thing in the end.

      I don't want to rob you through taxation as I think this can be done completely with private funds and without the government's help. I do know there are some in the space advocacy community, notably Neil DeGrasse Tyson, who want to point a gun at you and force you to pay for activities in space... so know that not everybody even has the same attitude about how to get there either. For myself, if the funds to do activities in space can't be found, that sort of is a "vote with wallets" to show that it may indeed be a futile effort but if the means to get this done can happen with private funds it is something that should be permitted to happen too.

    40. Re:Groovy ... by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      You claim that you don't care about people doing stuff like BASE jumping, mountain climbing up Mt. Everest, or doing other potentially life threatening things, yet you complain about people going into space on their own dime.... with or without voluntary sponsorships from others. Yet here you go and say precisely the opposite.

      Don't manufacture a controversy that doesn't exist.

      As for Mars One, I think those guys are full of it and don't know what they are doing, and legitimate engineers and even fans are trying to offer help yet it is being rejected in favor of fluff and pomp. That is why Mars One is going to fail, not because they are trying to attempt something foolish. I'll also agree that there will be scam artists and people with less than honorable intentions who are trying to milk those with a dream of someday working and living in space, some of whom have some serious money to offer as well.

      It seems that we mostly agree.

      Again, I am not asking you for anything explicitly other than to suggest if you want to help, work with me and others who want to go into space. If you think it is stupid, move along so you don't get in my way. And please, give me the permission and opportunity to do this kind of stuff instead of holding a gun to my head and telling me I can't go into space. It doesn't matter if you do it personally or have laws enacted and a government thug does that instead... it is the same thing in the end.

      I'm not holding a gun to you head. Want to know why you aren't going into space? You don't have millions of dollars. The same applies as the reason why nobody is going to Mars - there are insufficient numbers of people interested in it, and the people who are interested in it aren't interested enough to spend the sums necessary. It's a hard truth, but there it is.

      Just so you know, if I had the chance and money to spare too, I would go too. If offered the chance to go for free, I would absolutely do it. However, I wouldn't do it imagining I was fulfilling some great destiny, I would go knowing full well that it is just fulfilling a selfish desire.

  8. Wants to go to Mars... by koan · · Score: 1

    Why?

    --
    "If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
    1. Re:Wants to go to Mars... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Why not?

      But really, I think the chance to found a new world is enough of a reason in itself. The opportunity to create a utopia there in your own image, unfettered by the inertia of millennia-old society here -- where else could you imagine Manna happening?

    2. Re:Wants to go to Mars... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it is there.

      Because having all of humanity on a single ball of rock is "putting all your eggs in a single basket". Dinosaurs tried that and it didn't go so well.

    3. Re:Wants to go to Mars... by taiwanjohn · · Score: 1

      A new life awaits you in the Off-world colonies. The chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure... ;-)

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    4. Re:Wants to go to Mars... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The dinosaurs are extinct because they didn't have a space program.
      -- Larry Niven

  9. Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 0, Troll

    even very smart, very successful, technologically savvy people have impossible delusions (in this case that humans can live for long periods beyond everything that we take for granted on Earth).

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    1. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But he is not delusional for realizing the only way to survive long term is to get off this rock.

    2. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      (in this case that humans can live for long periods beyond everything that we take for granted on Earth).

      Are you sure that's delusional? Incredibly difficult, sure I'll grant you that. Not going to happen this decade, certainly. We'd need at least two successful Biosphere2 experiments before that will happen, and that's going to take a long time to test.

      But completely delusional, would you really go that far? Because to me it seems like something possible, at least. Especially if you can get regular shipments from earth for a while.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is not proof he delusional. He thinks everyone want to drive a piece of shit electric car. That's a sign of his delusion.

    4. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, we know Musk has started a successful car company, a successful solar power company and a successful rocket company.

      Now tell us what you've done and we'll compare credentials and decide who's delusional.

    5. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I didn't want to drive an electric car until my friend dragged me to test drive a Tesla. It's the best car I've ever driven. I just wish that I could afford one.

    6. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Howard Hughes had plenty of successful aeronautical and electronics companies, but still went mad.

      (Not saying that EM will...)

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    7. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by michael021689 · · Score: 1

      So your argument is that because we are evolving and won't be the same in millions of years we should just give up on progress and the preservation of the species? It must suck to live with that bleak outlook.

    8. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Are you sure that's delusional?

      Yes, because I've researched:
      (a) how difficult it is for humans to work in space suits, and
      (b) how much the human body does not like ionizing radiation, and
      (c) how fucking cold it is on Mars.

      We'd need at least two successful Biosphere2 experiments before that will happen,

      Hah.

      Who builds those biospheres? Lots of people with lots of trucks and cranes. Trucks and cranes... just don't run on Mars. No oxygen.

      Where do they build them? In Arizona. Nice, warm, sunny, near-to-civilization Arizona.

      Not only build it in deep, frozen Antarctica, but have it succeed in deep, frozen Antarctica and then I'll be relatively impressed.

      But still it won't protect people from radiation.

      What, you say? Live in caves?

      Digging caves is hard. It takes lots and lots of heavy machinery. Which must be transported to Mars, along with fuel and spare parts, and machine shops, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    9. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 5, Interesting

      We will see a spike in human evolution once we have children on Mars too. Should prove interesting, less gravity, different radiation levels, different food, even different bacteria. Taller, skinner, different skin color...each new generation will be further from the "Baseline" until eventually it becomes it's own species, unable to reproduce with Earthers.

    10. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Well, that without a doubt is a better comment than your previous one.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    11. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by l0n3s0m3phr34k · · Score: 1

      I see 3d printers and pre-built assembly pods building what we need before we actually send the colonists. I really think though our best bet for colonizing is inside the Trench...we could seal off part of it, one of the branches, and start terraforming..

    12. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow, what logic! Amazing! You've shown that Elon Musk can't possibly be delusional because I didn't get lucky a decade ago to have smart partners in Paypal! Therefore, it also follows the universe is actually quite small and physics and engineering are mere annoyances to someone who has a successful business!

      How can you type? Doesn't corporate cock get in the way? And what if Musk is delusional? Does the psychiatrist making the diagnosis also need to have three companies? What about his cardiologist? Does he have to have three businesses to make accurate diagnoses? Oh the logic of a six year old!

      And I was wrong about one thing, the population is increasing by 200000 people a day. That means you'd need SIXTY SIX THOUSAND Saturn V launches EVERY. DAY. just to keep population growth at ZERO. Never mind getting the entire species "off this rock".

      And even if you invoke the magical 3D printer to 3D print sixty six thousand (fully fueled!) Saturn Vs a day, where would these people go? The Moon? For a weekend?

      The big question you space cowards never answer is: who picks who gets to go? Elon Musk will then generously bring everyone into space because he's so generous?

      Space. Nuttery.

    13. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Maybe, but why? There's nothing on Mars but... dust and rock. Who the hell wants to live in Antarctica-meets-Atacama-meets-115,000_foot_mountain (not that puny 35,000 foot Everest)?

      Really, that's the bottom line.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    14. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 2

      Yes, because I've researched:
      (a) how difficult it is for humans to work in space suits, and

      It's certanly more difficult than working in regular clothes without a breathing apparatus. You won't find anyone arguing that it isn't. That's not the same as impossible. Also, remember that working in a spacesuit in freefall isn't going to be the same thing as working in a spacesuit on a planet with gravity that's on the same order of magnitude as Earth gravity. Restrictive yes, but better spacesuit designs and better tools for compensating for the limited mobility can help with that.

      (b) how much the human body does not like ionizing radiation, and

      It doesn't, but it's not much worse on the surface of Mars than on the ISS. Unlike on the ISS, there's the option of being covered by large amounts of shielding most of the time, whether you're indoors in a shelter or driving around in a vehicle.

      (c) how fucking cold it is on Mars.

      That's just silly. It can get very cold on Mars at the poles and in winter. Most of the time, at moderate latitudes, temperatures on Mars are within typical Earth ranges. Since no-one will be outside without an insulated spacesuit, that shouldn't be a problem. Not to mention the fact that we're talking about an atmosphere 1% as thick as the atmosphere of Earth. So, even if the temperature is -150 degrees celcius, the actual amount of heat that the air can absorb is far, far less than -150 degrees celcius air on Earth. There's a reason that a vacuum flask can keep hot liquids hot or cold liquids cold for extended periods of time. There are still convection currents of course, but, once again, you would be in an insulated space suit.

      Who builds those biospheres? Lots of people with lots of trucks and cranes. Trucks and cranes... just don't run on Mars. No oxygen.

      Uhhh... Yeah. Because Mars colonists would totatally just buy regular trucks and cranes from some local vendor, fly them to Mars, then scratch their heads when the motors won't start. Or, maybe instead of something that idiotic, they could actually use something that works on Mars? There's electrically powered equipment powered via umbilicals to a power plant, batteries, maybe even RTGs. Alternately, they actually could use construction equipment off the lot powered by locally generated methane and oxygen (generated using the sabatier reaction and electrolysis, respectively). The oxygen tank would need to be four times as big as the fuel tank and fed through a regulator into a modified air intake. It might need a modified radiator, modified logic on the engine computer, maybe a regulator on the exhaust itself, but otherwise wouldn't need much modification.

      Where do they build them? In Arizona. Nice, warm, sunny, near-to-civilization Arizona.
      Not only build it in deep, frozen Antarctica, but have it succeed in deep, frozen Antarctica and then I'll be relatively impressed.

      Mars is always sunny and, in any location we might colonize early, there's never any precipitation. Antarctica, not so much. Frankly, Arizona seems closer to the environment of Mars than Antarctica. Maybe the Atacama desert would be better?

      But still it won't protect people from radiation.

      What, you say? Live in caves?

      Digging caves is hard. It takes lots and lots of heavy machinery. Which must be transported to Mars, along with fuel and spare parts, and machine shops, etc, etc, ad nauseum.

      You don't dig caves. Caves are, technically speaking, Karst formations. Caves are pre-existing geological features that you locate and move in to. Ditto for lava tubes.

      The things you mention are challenges, certainly, but not exactly surprises. Also not impossible obstacles.

    15. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 2

      maybe even RTGs

      I wouldn't get my hopes up...
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioisotope_thermoelectric_generator#Efficiency
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioisotope_thermoelectric_generator#Terrestrial

      Maybe the Atacama desert would be better?

      If the construction crews wore the kind of suits that someone would wear at 115,000 ft altitude.

      generated using the sabatier reaction and electrolysis, respectively

      Where will all of the feed stock come from?

      I've got the sneaking suspicion that lots and lots of people don't realize what a really, really deep chain of industry is required to build something as simple as a one-speed bicycle.

      You don't dig caves.

      My fault. Should have said "tunnels", because maybe there aren't Martian caves where we think it's best (or even "ok") to live.

      And even if there are, what if they have to be extended, enlarged, strengthened, etc?

      Bottom line: why would anyone live in a place that's drier and colder than the Atacama, has much less atmosphere, and is a minimum of 34M miles from everyone else? (Because of the distance and gravity, "Because it's there" is a Very Nonsensical Reason.)

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    16. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I recommend checking out Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars (and the rest of his Mars Trilogy). He clearly put a lot of thought into what would be necessary to colonize (and terraform) Mars. Of course, it would be really, really expensive (and the fact that colonizing Mars is super-expensive is significant to the plot), but people have thought through things like how to run construction machines without oxygen. Red Mars was published in 1993, so the science/technology is relatively up to date. It's set in 2026 and the technology is more advanced than today's but still looks perfectly reasonable for 2026. That doesn't mean it's going to happen, just that technology does not seem to be an issue given a reasonable amount of funding---the larger issue is that a "reasonable amount of funding" for getting to Mars is a lot of money. I wish SpaceX luck, but I'm not sure they'll make it.

    17. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      Bottom line: why would anyone live in a place that's drier and colder than the Atacama, has much less atmosphere, and is a minimum of 34M miles from everyone else? (Because of the distance and gravity, "Because it's there" is a Very Nonsensical Reason.)

      Well for one thing, there's a heck of a lot of geologists and biologists who would love to be able to detailed analysis of as much of Mars as they want, whenever they want.

      A long term habitation mission which was focused on answering whether there was previously life on mars, and is life today, would be a huge scientific boon.

      There are other questions we can tackle too: for one thing, where all the alien civilizations? Exploring the solar system's body's is one way to try and answer that - we've lived on Earth long enough to possibly have wiped out incidental probes or debris that landed, but relatively stable geological surfaces elsewhere could have preserved things.

      Not to mention, determining what the requirements and experiences of off-world human habitation are is pretty important - depending on your perspective. Strictly speaking there's no reason for us to figure out how to live underwater, but we've conducted a number of scientific missions involving long term pressurization doing exactly that (the important lesson learned: don't give the scientists carte blanche to demand whatever tests they want, whenever they want. Biopsy's aren't fun at the best of times).

      There's also biosphere questions that are worth answering: missions that demand we improve our ability to manage artificial environments mean we can improve the way we do it on Earth well ahead of any immediate need, and hopefully with enough lead time to bring the costs down. At the end of the day though, fundamental science is well - fundamental. Technology is not a straight line, nor is the path even obvious and the only way you make progress is by advancing as many fields as you can all at the same time.

    18. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      especially since Elon Musk plans on only sending redheads to mars...

    19. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Still waiting to hear why I should trust your opinion over Musk's.

      Or are you just someone who spends their time tearing down people who actually go out and accomplish something.

      Silly me, this is Slashdot. Carry on.

    20. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      What you describe are science missions, which is kinda reasonable, since humans are much more flexible than robots.

      But why not spend the money and mass required to keep humans alive on even larger and more complicated robots?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    21. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Issarlk · · Score: 1

      To advance rocket know how with a nice ambitious goal so we can go more interesting but less glamorous places more easilly after.

    22. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      To just advance rocket tech, why send people? Why not bigger (or multiple) robots?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    23. Re: Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are mirroring so hard it makes the Hubble Space Telescope pale.

      Just because you have no plans, strategy or future of any kind don't assume others are like you.

      I want to see this species survive. It includes humans and human achievements in general. It does not include you or someone starving in a hot country in particular.

      Permanent self-sufficient space habitats are the only way to survive.

    24. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So anyone who isn't a nihilist is a mentally ill "religious fuckwit".

      If we're going to diagnose peoples mental health and IQ score by loosely associated historical figures who happened to go mad, there's Nietzsche, he was a nihilist just like you. So, go back to jerking your peter or eating McNuggets in crusty sweatpants or whatever meaningless tasks you perform to stay entertained before the Sun runs out of hydrogen, some of us are at least in some way trying, hoping to secure a legacy for humans who reproduce.

      As for the significance of SpaceX. Nobody is expecting them to turn around in 20 years and teraform Mars (giving it a decent atmosphere?), invent faster than light travel or rip holes in space to find a better "Earth" but then again western civilization wouldn't exist if Aristotle hadn't coined "logic", modern physics wouldn't exist if it wasn't for the contributions of Newton and/or Leibniz.

      I bet if you would have asked any of those guys (especially Aristotle) if something like a PC, TV, or even a light-bulb could be invented they'd call it "fictional bullshit" too.

    25. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      PS: We'll be dead long before the sun runs out of hydrogen/helium if we don't figure out how to make our environment habitable.

      You really just projected that a red dwarf will be our extension event? Mentally challenged indeed.

    26. Re: Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You sound like those people back in time who came into conclusion that New York has no future, because after a 100 years the city would need 6 million horses to transport people and that was not possible.

    27. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      a really, really deep chain of industry is required to build something as simple as a one-speed bicycle.

      We have such a supply chain right here on Earth. For the rest: In-Situ Resource Utilization.

      Why dig a tunnel when you can blow up an inflatable hab module and pile a bunch of regolith on top? In 1/3rd gravity, you wouldn't even need heavy equipment, just bring a couple of shovels (or better yet, make them from local materials with the 3D-printer you brought from home).

      There are lots of people studying every aspect of living and working on Mars. For example, one guy has figured out how to make cement with all-Martian materials. Others are working on sintering techniques for brick and glass, or extracting water, aluminum, etc..

      No one is suggesting that it will be "easy", but if you think it's "delusional" you haven't been keeping up with the latest research.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    28. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it provides a trial run halfway house for testing technologies required to make and maintain a long term habitable self sufficient base in a human hostile environment, such as a planet in another solar system, or a space station or generation ship. You don't get to a destination by skipping the steps in between there and here. We wont know all the problems with making such habitats until we try. Both being thousands of miles from any material resources (such as hydrogen oxygen and metals) and living in weightlessness is it's own set of problems, best to try to solve the first set separate then once we have found out what is necessary to make a habitat we can extrapolate to other environments.

    29. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And I was wrong about one thing, the population is increasing by 200000 people a day. That means you'd need SIXTY SIX THOUSAND Saturn V launches EVERY. DAY. just to keep population growth at ZERO. Never mind getting the entire species "off this rock".

      Look, QA, we've been through this. The goal isn't to evacuate seven billion humans. Not even a billion humans. Not even a million humans.

      As you point out, humans are self-replicating. The way you get a billion humans off this rock is the same way we got a billion humans on this rock. You start a colony of a few hundred humans, maybe a thousand or so, and you wait a few centuries.

      Who gets to go? People crazy, stupid, desperate, and optimistic enough to say "Fuck it, let's go build a new civilization somewhere away from all of this." It doesn't always work. The Vikings failed to colonize North America. The first colony at Roanoke was a bust. Eventually, a few of them made it.

      You're a luddite, QA. Enjoy what time you have left - it may well be extended by 10 years or more due to 3D printed replacement organs. They work kinda like space colonies too: you 3D print a tiny scaffold of cells and the cells figure out how to do the rest all by themselves. May you live long enough to die of old age with the rest of us on this rock - looking up at a little red dot in the sky, knowing that humanity has a backup plan.

    30. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Mars is always sunny and, in any location we might colonize early, there's never any precipitation. Antarctica, not so much.

      Antarctica gets far less precipitation than Arizona.

      --
      This space intentionally left blank
    31. Re: Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by mknewman · · Score: 1

      You will be able to in a few years when the Model E comes out!

    32. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      I like how you think I'm a nihilist because I think space is empty. But you're not a nihilist because you think our planet is a "rock", and the species is doomed if we don't do what you want us to do?

      On the one hand you have me, who advocates stopping wasting time on obvious non-starters, and we have you, who is so lost in imagination and sci-fi you really think you speak for the species.

      But you're sane. Sure.

    33. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 1

      I like how you think I'm a nihilist because I think space is empty. But you're not a nihilist because you think our planet is a "rock", and the species is doomed if we don't do what you want us to do?

      On the one hand you have me, who advocates stopping wasting time on obvious non-starters, and we have you, who is so lost in imagination and sci-fi you really think you speak for the species.

      What's this "we", white man? Nobody asked you to do shit. And you're not doing shit. So quit whining about the shit you're not doing.

      On the one hand, we have you, who claims something that has been started and will be continued is an "obvious non-starter", and then we have the rest of us, who don't have a problem watching some guy spend his money.

      And you just keep posting your drivel...

    34. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      We have such a supply chain right here on Earth.

      Under a *deep* -- and therefore very expensive -- gravity well.

      For the rest: In-Situ Resource Utilization.

      Mine it and process it?

      1/3rd gravity

      3/8g is a much better approximation, but that's just a quibble.

      just bring a couple of shovels

      *Really*?? Sigh.... :(

      So, 200 wheelbarrows full of rock on Earth would be like 600 wheelbarrows of rock on Mars? Get back to me when you've moved 10 wheelbarrowfulls(sp?) of rock 100 yards.

      make them from local materials with the 3D-printer you brought from home

      And the buttload of infrastructure to convert the local material into something usable by the 3D printer?

      one guy has figured out how to make cement with all-Martian materials.

      Go see how he made it. I guarantee you that there's a huge load of complex Earth infrastructure behind it which would have to be replicated on Mars.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    35. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I suspect that you're a bit confused about how evolution works. It's not the case that traits that best suit the environment will magically become more frequently expressed in future populations. No, among modern humans, it basically works like this: The people who are most willing to produce children, or most careless about producing them by accident, whose genes are overrepresented in subsequent generations. There is no reason to think that this will be any different on Mars, and there is no reason to think that the "child-wanting" trait will have any sort of overlap with anatomical traits that are well-suited to Martian life. The only thing that could block this would be a serious failure of our medical capacities, so that children that are better suited for Mars life are more likely to survive to child-bearing age. If this effect is sufficiently small, then it will be swamped by other factors that support human fertility, like being born to Mormons or failing to finish high school. Among US Caucasians, those are the traits that evolution is currently selecting for.

    36. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      I wouldn't get my hopes up...

      I was including more modern designs like SRGs under the blanket term RTGs. The more modern designs get at least 20% efficiency. So, with 1 kilogram of plutonium 238 producing 500 Watts of heat, you would get 100 Watts and still at least 75 Watts after 30 years. The terrestrial section you linked to is mostly for obsolete equipment. The space section is more representative of what you could expect of anything sent to Mars. It includes a design that masses 35 kilograms total, and produces 140 Watts from 500 Watts of heat from 1 kg of fuel.

      A piece of construction equipment like a Komatsu 300 uses about 5 gallons of gas per hour. 5 gallons of gasoline is about 661.2 MJ, so 5 gallons per hour is a rate of about 183.667 kilowatts. Exactly how to equate that to the power efficiency of radiothermal generation depends on a few factors. The most "efficient" (in terms of energy conversion) way to operate heavy equipment from a radiothermal source, ignoring all other considerations, is to run it off a stirling engine directly powered by the heat of the radioactive fuel. In that case, you can pretty much directly equate the 500 thermal Watts from 1 kg of pu-238 to thermal Watts from gasoline and say that a radiothermal-powered Komatsu 300 would need about 368 kgs of pu-238, or about 490 kgs to have that power level 30 years out. The actual engine would obviously need to mass more than 35 kg, but would also obviously not need to be in excess of 17 metric tons as I'm pretty certain the Stirling engine design would scale a bit more gracefully than that. Of course, you won't be running that piece of equipment 24/7. Most likely, it would sit idle nearly all the time, except for short periods of intense use. Not to mention that, for a Mars mission, you will want equipment with a modular, interchangeable design to reduce weight. So, you'll probably have a power plant somewhere and distrubute power either as electrical power over cables or by using the power to generate fuel that you can store for later use (methane and oxygen again).

      Maybe the Atacama desert would be better?

      If the construction crews wore the kind of suits that someone would wear at 115,000 ft altitude.

      That very well might be a better test. On the other hand, it wouldn't simulate the different gravity on Mars at all. Also, performing all of the constuction under such conditions wouldn't be practical. Experimentally, it should be sufficient to have part of the construction crew working under those conditions for long enough to adapt to them and then guage their effectiveness in various tasks and extrapolate from there.

      Where will all of the feed stock come from?

      I've got the sneaking suspicion that lots and lots of people don't realize what a really, really deep chain of industry is required to build something as simple as a one-speed bicycle.

      From the atmosphere and the ground, respectively. Zubrin's plan for generating methane fuel on Mars didn't even call for using electrolysis on in situ water, but rather for bringing a relatively small amount of initial hydrogen. There's no reason, however, that we can't use in situ water as a resource as well. As for other materials you might need for various processes, you would bring them with you initially.

      Same thing for the tools required. There's no reason you need to build everything locally to begin with. A bicycle, for example. It may take a very deep chain of industry to build a bicycle but, if you bring 5 bicycles and a supply of replacement parts and repair tools, there's no reason you can't still have three servicable bicycles thirty years later.

      My fault. Should have said "tunnels", because maybe there aren't Martian caves where we think it's best (or even "ok") to live.

      There are Martian caves/lava tubes. As long as you find one the right size, there's no reason you can't make use of

    37. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      a radiothermal-powered Komatsu 300 would need about 368 kgs of pu-238, or about 490 kgs to have that power level 30 years out.

      You'd better reopen Hanford PDQ.

      why would anyone want to live in the Atacama desert? Or any desert?

      I've wondered that many times, and have never come up with a good reason for why people live (as opposed to "endure in mining camps") in deserts.

      Why would anyone ever need to build a boat or domesticate a horse, or cross a river, or build roads, or invent trains, or start mining for ores?

      To make life less precarious, less of a drudge. Let me rephrase that: to make life easier.

      Your question seems nihilistic to me.

      To leap from "it's stupid to live on Mars" to "it's stupid to live at all" is... too absurd for words.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    38. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Because nobody cares if we send yet another robot?

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    39. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Because nobody cares if we send yet another robot?

      Eh? Really?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    40. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Oh, I'm sure the scientists will appreciate it, but I imagine they'd also rather have adaptable humans in place than deal with the clunkiness and pre-limited capabilities of a robot. After all a human can cobble together brand new purpose-built lab equipment out of all sorts of random trash - it won't be as good as something manufactured for the purpose, but it'll be a bajillion times better than waiting another 10-20 years to get the right equipment onto a probe. Why, for example, has no probe since the first included any equipment to try to detect more than the most circumstantial evidence of life? Sure, it could be that it's a conspiracy, but more likely it's that trying to detect something when you don't know what you're actually looking for is *complicated*. A single human can easily run a cobbled-together lab with hundreds or thousands of samples subjected to different conditions looking for anomalies. A robot, not so much. There's also the matter of exploratory range - Opportunity has been on Mars for 10 years and covered about 22 miles. A human could easily walk that far in a couple days. Okay, so granted current space suites would reduce that dramatically, but having only about 1/3 gravity would increase it, and there are several far more mobile space suits being developed.

      Meanwhile, for PR purposes, when is the last time any notable portion of the population even noticed when a robot launched or landed? Establishing a manned Martian outpost on the other hand could potentially rival, or even exceed, the popular enthusiasm of the moon landing. And while it would no doubt lose mind-share fast, it would still be an ongoing project with drama and tragedy to seize the public imagination - people *like* stories about adventurers risking their life for a dream, they sell tickets (or in this case justify tax dollars).

      It might not be the most financially efficient plan, but if we can get stuff to mars as cheaply as we currently get stuff to orbit, it may very well be the most politically appealing.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    41. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      Under a *deep* -- and therefore very expensive -- gravity well.

      It's all going to be expensive. The point is that you don't have to build an industrial chain on Mars from scratch. You take along the supplies you need to start and bootstrap it from there. You use in situ resources, but you don't use them to make everything from scratch, you use them as a multiplier for what you do bring along with you. For example, an entire lifetime (obviously not a lifetime of luxury) of supplies for an astronaut would be about 150 tons. That's food/water/oxygen/clothing/sanitary supplies/medicine. At current launch costs, that's about $4 billion per astronaut for the launch costs to get it off Earth.

      75% or so of that mass, however, is just water. Even if you ignore in situ resources entirely, you can recycle water used for human consumption. There are consumables involved in the filtration that require a significant industrial chain to actually make, but you can recycle thousands of kilograms of water for every kilogram of consumables you bring. If you're using local water, you also need consumables. But you can bring those along with you and use a small amount to use a large amount of in situ water.

      Oxygen is a bit trickier since we don't have a good process for cracking CO2 yet, but this is where we stop ignoring the in situ resources and acknowledge that, with some basic equipment, you can get oxygen from water (or from perchlorates, or from other materials) on Mars. There are consumables that you can't reproduce on Mars without an industrial base for that as well such as filters and electrolyte/catalyst membranes but, once again, you can bring along a relatively small mass of consumables and use them to generate a lifetime supply of oxygen from local resources.

      Mine it and process it?

      That is the way such things work, yes. Although, rather than mining and processing, you'll be extracting material from the air and processing in some cases. Did you think that anyone was suggesting heading down to the local Martian department store?

      *Really*?? Sigh.... :(

      So, 200 wheelbarrows full of rock on Earth would be like 600 wheelbarrows of rock on Mars? Get back to me when you've moved 10 wheelbarrowfulls(sp?) of rock 100 yards.

      Mass would be the same, weight would be less. So, without frequent stops and starts, it would be easier. I'm not sure why you think it would be otherwise (except of course for the obvious fact that you'd have to do it in a spacesuit).

      Also I'm not sure about taiwanjohn, but I've moved a lot more than 10 loads of rock, soil, compost, whatever over my lifetime. On decent ground, without much of a slope, it's pretty easy. Even when I was 10 years old or so. That's the whole point behind a wheelbarrow. Loading the wheelbarrow has always been the hard part.

      Obviously "a couple of shovels" is a bit of an understatement.

      And the buttload of infrastructure to convert the local material into something usable by the 3D printer?

      Not sure about metal sintering 3D printers. I gather you need powdered metal, iron or some alloy thereof along with a wax binder. Presumably you can recycle the wax to a certain degree. For the metal, you have various materials readily available on Mars. Iron is clearly widely available on Mars either as iron oxide in the soil or as fairly pure iron from meteorites. Overall though, I would think that it would be best to save the 3d printer for complex metal parts. For something like a shovel it would be better to use relatively traditional blacksmithing methods.

      Go see how he made it. I guarantee you that there's a huge load of complex Earth infrastructure behind it which would have to be replicated on Mars.

      The experiments in that article were about getting it to set under Martian conditions. A commercial Sorel cement product was used. It didn't look into what ki

    42. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      Antarctica gets far less precipitation than Arizona.

      In the interior, yes. Coastal areas tend to get a decent amount, however. Either way, both Arizona and Antarctica get a lot more precipitation than anywhere we would initially colonize on Mars.

    43. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      A single human can easily run a cobbled-together lab

      Only if the relevant "stuff" has been sent up with him.

      Remember that Spock didn't actually create a tricorder interface from stone knives and bearskins. (Not that Spock actually exists, but I hope you get the point.)

      the clunkiness and pre-limited capabilities of a robot.

      Every rover has had more features.

      In the place of the mass of water, food, fuel, etc, etc needed to keep humans alive... what' to stop us from sending multi-robot systems with even more complicated gear, with maybe a static "home base" laboratory.

      The rovers would then just be collecting devices with a bunch of little boxes. Once a rover fulls all of the specimen trays, it drives back to "base", swaps it's full trays for empty trays and goes back out.

      In the meantime, the laboratory system analyzes samples from multiple rovers.

      when is the last time any notable portion of the population even noticed when a robot launched or landed?

      Opportunity, Spirit & Rover got significant Big 5 (ABC/CBS/NBC/FNC/CNN) air time when they got to and touched down on Mars.

      if we can get stuff to mars as cheaply as we currently get stuff to orbit

      If "if" were a skiff, I'd be fishing. But it's not, so I'm not.

      Even though it doesn't cost that much more to get a projectile whizzing towards Mars than it does to get it in LEO, that's pretty useless, and still damned expensive!

      You've got to actually get something useful orbiting the planet and then successfully ease it down the Martian gravity well.

      That is the hard, expensive part.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    44. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      you can bring along a relatively small mass of consumables and use them to generate a lifetime supply of oxygen from local resources.

      This is the crux of the disagreement between us. You say it's hard but doable, whereas I think you're Mars mission relies on Handwavium to convert chemical transformation formulas into actual non-laboratory processes.

      (This is similar to -- but on a much larger scale than -- why we don't have supersonic passenger aircraft: some problems' only solutions are sooo expensive that the problem isn't worth solving.)

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    45. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      You'd better reopen Hanford PDQ.

      If you want plutonium-238, certainly you would need nuclear power plants to make it. I don't insist on RTGs, they're just one option with certain advantages when you're shipping equipment to far off location and need to power it reliably for a long time.

      I've wondered that many times, and have never come up with a good reason for why people live (as opposed to "endure in mining camps") in deserts.

      That's the point I was making about your argument. Just because you personally don't get it, or it's outside your comfort zone, doesn't make it pointless.

      To make life less precarious, less of a drudge. Let me rephrase that: to make life easier.

      In retrospect, those things obviously made life easier and better. Beforehand, you can be assured that there were plenty of naysayers like yourself who demanded to know why you would want to have anything to do with fire, or horses, or putting things on wheels when you can build a perfectly good travois.

      To leap from "it's stupid to live on Mars" to "it's stupid to live at all" is... too absurd for words.

      I think I said that because you said:

      "Because it's there" is a Very Nonsensical Reason

      And it simply isn't. If that's not a good reason, what is?

    46. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      I'm curious, which part of electrolysis requires handwavium? That's how the oxygen is generated on the ISS. All that's required is water, and Mars has water. The fact that it takes some effort to extract it doesn't make doing it somehow impossible. To my mind, that's the crux of the disagreement between us, you believe that things that are difficult shouldn't and possibly can't be done.

      (This is similar to -- but on a much larger scale than -- why we don't have supersonic passenger aircraft: some problems' only solutions are sooo expensive that the problem isn't worth solving.)

      Except that the Concorde wasn't that expensive compared to a regular passenger jet. It was killed by noise concerns and irrational safety concerns and the fallout from the events of September 11th 2001.

    47. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Beforehand, you can be assured that there were plenty of naysayers like yourself who demanded to know why you would want to have anything to do with ...

      That's a good thing, because otherwise society would be pulled hither and yon with every new idea, whether good, bad or indifferent.

      For example, racism and the Electric Universe.

      Once it was demonstrated that racism is Bad, most whites have switched -- slowly, over time -- to varying points along the spectrum from tolerance to acceptance.

      Not so much on the Electric Universe theory, which is still fringe no matter how vociferous it's supporters are.

      And it simply isn't. If that's not a good reason, what is?

      I don't understand that response.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    48. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      It's really hard to read what you wrote there without coming to the conclusion that you're arguing that racism is a good thing. Or, at least that racism is a good default position and you should only switch with extraordinary proof that it's bad. I don't think I like that.

      I don't understand that response.

      I was saying that "Because it's there" is not a Very Nonsensical Reason. At least, if it's not a good reason, then most of the motivations for all the great things the human race has accomplished are also not good reasons.

    49. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      and Mars has water.

      It's the getting the Martian water which I think is much more difficult than you do.

      the Concorde wasn't that expensive compared to a regular passenger jet

      That's not my recollection.

      It was killed by noise concerns

      Silly fly-over hayseeds not wanting their windows rattling multiple times per day!

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    50. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Immerman · · Score: 1

      The lab technician who can't cobble together an serviceable lab mostly from tin cans and chewing gum is barely worthy of the name. Sure, you probably can't build an electron microscope or mass spectrometer that way, but even century-old equivalent equipment can get a *lot* done, and most of that is not terribly difficult to make. Couple that with a few choice pieces of compact, versatile high-tech equipment and you can get an immense amount of work done. Heck, cannibalize Opportunity for equipment, or even just bring it pre-prepared samples for analysis and you'd increase the speed of research by an order of magnitude or two. Add a halfway decent 3d printer and recycler for convenience and you've got a lab that would Edison weep with jealousy.

      As for the various landers, sure they got a little air time, but how may non-geeks did you hear actually talking about them?

      As for the expense of landing stuff once you get it to Mars (I'm presuming you're being facetious about the difficulty of orbital capture, it's the same basic maneuver as engaged to leave Earth's orbit), that's not actually that bad, we've got a lot of practice and are pulling it off fully autonomously with increasingly few resources. Mars has plenty of atmosphere for aerobraking from orbital velocities to virtually eliminate fuel consumption, and if Musk and crew can get the Falcon XX landing reliably here it shouldn't be any more difficult to do the same on Mars. And if you presume an automated cargo flight that lands with equipment before the crew arrives then you can increase the cargo drastically at the same cost by using the interplanetary transport network, building supplies mostly don't care if they get radiation bombarded for a couple extra years in transit, and getting to Mars is only slightly more energy-intensive than getting to orbit.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    51. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      It's really hard to read what you wrote there without coming to the conclusion that you're arguing that racism is a good thing.

      Which part of what I wrote gave you that impression?

      Or, at least that racism is a good default position

      Ditto.

      and you should only switch with extraordinary proof that it's bad. I don't think I like that.

      Racism was not a good default position, but you can't deny that it was the default position.

      And given your low 5-digit /. id, you must be old enough to remember that the vast majority of whites who lived near blacks did have to be convinced that racism is Wrong. (I won't comment on those whites from places like Minnesota where it's easy to not be racist because there aren't any blacks to be racist against.)

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    52. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      and most of that is not terribly difficult to make.

      Please give examples, remembering that it will be made on Mars, not Earth.

      I'm presuming you're being facetious about the difficulty of orbital capture

      More the landing phase.

      Lots of things are easy in theory but hard in practice. We're getting better at it, but still some craft fail.

      increasingly few

      Is that like "5x less"?

      if Musk and crew can get the Falcon XX landing reliably here it shouldn't be any more difficult to do the same on Mars.

      Engineering is harder and more expensive than I think you think it is.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    53. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      In reality, that will never happen. There is no a biosphere on Mars, and even if you terraformed the planet, it it's sustainable without artificial support. You can thank the weak magnetic field for that. No shield = atmosphere gets stripped away into space by the sun. So the moment this new emergent species gets thrown back into the stone age, they will die off as would the rest of the planet.

      And I'll leave you with one final thought. You can take man from nature, but you can't remove the nature from man. War happens. It's what we are good at.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    54. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      It's the way that you wrote:

      That's a good thing... for example...

      It suggests that your examples were of good, proper attitudes.

      Anyway, that misunderstanding aside, I have to agree with you that we shouldn't be pulled in the direction of every new idea "just because". But the crank Electric Universe theory is not the same thing as the drive for exploration. Among other details, the drive for exploration is not new. It's ancient. If we didn't have it, chances are pretty good we would have gone extinct ages ago. It drives us to develop new technologies and new science and just generally try new things. I've seen you argue that we don't have the technology to do various things a Mars colony would require, with the implication that we shouldn't try for a Mars colony because we don't have those things. But why would we even develop those things if we weren't going to colonize another world? Necessity being the mother of invention and all that.

      You wondered why I thought of your attitude as nihilistic. It's because your answer to the general question of "if not now, when" seems to be "never!". To me, that just seems like a total surrender.

    55. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      It's the getting the Martian water which I think is much more difficult than you do.

      There are plenty of deposits of water ice all over Mars. If you want pure water ice you might need to truck it from the poles but, otherwise, you can get water from the ground from locations all over the planet.
      Well, in order to get enough water to make oxygen for one astronaut for one year, you need 366 kilograms of water. For them to drink and possibly rehydrate freeze-dried food for an entire year with no water recycling, you need about 1464 kilograms of water. So, for a whole year (ignoring things like washing water, etc. which you can continuously recycle even if you aren't recycling drinking water), a single astronaut needs maybe 1830 kgs of water to live. which is about how much water you can get out of an average 13 cubic meters of Martian soil. Unless you're in a poorly chosen area, that's not going to be very hard to obtain. That's not going to be a year's worth of work to obtain. Anywhere from a day to maybe a month at worst depending on what equipment you're using and how well chosen your source is.

      That's not my recollection.

      Then your recollection is incorrect. The Concorde had trouble recouping development and safety testing costs, to be sure. If you try amortizing those costs over only twenty units, you're obviously going to struggle. The operating costs themselves, are all we need to consider here, and they were modest for what the Concorde actually was. A more modern big passenger jet gets about three times the fuel economy per passenger, tops and other costs are comparable. That's not really "sooo expensive". It's first class prices, sure, but it's not astonomical. If we'd continued with supersonic passenger jet design, the fuel consumption per passenger would have gone down just like it did for the jumbo jets. It certainly would have always required more fuel per passenger, but not that much more. The Concorde was basically killed by beancounting and politics. It wasn't some impossible thing.

      Silly fly-over hayseeds not wanting their windows rattling multiple times per day!

      The concerns about sonic booms were greatly magnified by military tests producing much more powerful sonic booms. It led to lots of politically motivated rules about where the Concorde could fly or even land, completely ignoring the fact that the Concorde could also fly at subsonic speed and, in fact, had to for takeoff and landing.

    56. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      It's because your answer to the general question of "if not now, when" seems to be "never!".

      Really? No.

      I'm not saying, "Don't explore Mars." Use robots -- multiple large and complicated ones, with the mass budget saved by not having to keep humans alive.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    57. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Then your recollection is incorrect.

      I'll disagree until you show me some evidence. Presumably you think the same way.

      The Concorde was basically killed by beancounting and politics. It wasn't some impossible thing.

      You agree with me, but seem to be fighting anyway.

      Go back and read my original post on cost:
      http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=4874589&cid=46442899

      some problems' only solutions are sooo expensive that the problem isn't worth solving.

      See, we agree!!

      OTOH, technology marches on.

      Now that Pratt & Whitney has developed a supercruise engine for the F-22, if Boeing demonstrates that the 787's carbon fiber body is durable, then combining those technologies with NASA's boom reduction research the concept of supersonic passenger aircraft could be brought out of mothballs (especially for long Asian and Pacific routes).

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    58. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      At the end of the day robots can't self-diagnose or self-repair, and are not smart enough to be left to their own devices. All our robots are basically very advanced remote control cars.

      People are still much better - we heal ourselves, we can problem solve, and we're faster moving and more capable with basic tools.

      But the problem is to sides of the same coin - moving 100 people to Mars requires the same advancements as sending 10 Curiousitys.

    59. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      moving 100 people to Mars requires the same advancements as sending 10 Curiousitys.

      You're saying that right now we can send 10 people to Mars?

      Or that we need some advance in technology to simultaneously send 10 Curiosity rovers?

      Or something else?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    60. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      I'll disagree until you show me some evidence. Presumably you think the same way.

      The evidence is that the Concorde put in nearly three decades of service. Things that are impractical to the point of impossibility aren't kept in service that long. That's actually a decently ripe old age for an international passenger jet. During that lifetime, people wanted to fly on it, paid their money and flew on it. It successfully filled the niche it lived in.

      You agree with me, but seem to be fighting anyway.

      We obviously have a different definition of what a beancounter is. I go by the fairly standard definition of a penny pinching accountant who is incapable of grasping the big picture. For example someone who eleminates a bunch of neccessary $20/hr jobs and compensates by dumping the duties of those jobs onto $80 an hour employees. Or someone who eliminates a less-profitable division because their definition of profit doesn't discern between less-profitable and unprofitable.

      Go back and read my original post on cost:

      I obviously read it since I quoted it in my last post. You provided the Concorde of something that was "sooo expensive that the problem isn't worth solving" and were basically implying that a working supersonic passenger is basically an impossibility. The history of the Concord seems to prove otherwise.

      Also, I realize now that I should have pointed out that, for the Concorde itself, what really killed it was old age. The other things I mentioned were contributing factors. They were more central to the death of the supersonic passenger plane in general than the Concorde specifically.

      See, we agree!!

      Not really.

      OTOH, technology marches on.

      Now that Pratt & Whitney has developed a supercruise engine for the F-22, if Boeing demonstrates that the 787's carbon fiber body is durable, then combining those technologies with NASA's boom reduction research the concept of supersonic passenger aircraft could be brought out of mothballs (especially for long Asian and Pacific routes).

      Interesting. I have my doubts about the carbon fiber body being able to withstand the heating/cooling cycles of supersonic flight, but it certainly is possible that supersonic passenger flight could re-emerge.

      Anyway, you never did answer my question of what handwavium is required to make electrolysis work as an oxygen generation mechanism. It can't be the technique itself, it's known to work and there are commercially available units. The water can't be the obstacle, since we now know of numerous spots on Mars where you can just dig under the dirt a little and hit a layer of pure water ice. So what part requires the handwavium?

    61. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      Believe me, I'm as thrilled as anyone that we now have an interplanetary giant robot vaporizing an alien landscape with lasers! That fact is though, unless you have a plan for large, near autonomous swarms of exploratory robots, a decent sized human exploration mission has the potential to get more bang for the buck. A human, even stuck in a space suit, is just so much better at going out to a site, then excavating, bagging and tagging, then analyzing a bunch of samples than any existing robot. It doesn't even seem to matter that we're technically reliant on machines of one kind or another for pretty much every stage of the process, we're still better at it for the moment.

    62. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Things that are impractical to the point of impossibility aren't kept in service that long.

      National Pride and bureaucratic inertia are two factors which can keep some big project going well past it's Sell By date.

      The history of the Concord seems to prove otherwise.

      Why did Boeing cancel it's 2027 project? Why have there been no other SSTs (either European or American) since then?

      Because they aren't economical.

      So what part requires the handwavium?

      This is the Handwavium:

      you can just dig under the dirt a little and hit a layer of pure water ice

      A few shovel digs and up comes potable water?

      In reality, it'll be akin to strip mining.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    63. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      National Pride and bureaucratic inertia are two factors which can keep some big project going well past it's Sell By date.

      Except of course that British Airways was a private operation for more than 2/3rds of the life of the Concorde, and they flew it at a profit.

      Why did Boeing cancel it's 2027 project? Why have there been no other SSTs (either European or American) since then?

      Because they aren't economical.

      More because people who are worried that they might not be economical and the companies behind this sort of development are risk averse (when they aren't on a government contract, anyway).

      Anyway, why are we even discussing the blasted Concord? Can we just stop. It's a real thing, it operated for nearly three decades. You think it somehow proves something, I don't agree. We won't see eye to eye but who cares because the remaining Concordes are museum pieces now. I'd rather discuss the topic at hand.

      This is the Handwavium:

      you can just dig under the dirt a little and hit a layer of pure water ice

      But what you wrote was:

      This is the crux of the disagreement between us. You say it's hard but doable, whereas I think you're Mars mission relies on Handwavium to convert chemical transformation formulas into actual non-laboratory processes.

      How is the availability of water on Mars therefore the handwavium? That's not what you meant when you wrote that and you know it. I'm going to have to assume that your information about extant efficient electrolysis systems was very out of date, but you finally looked it up and now you're trying to claim you were talking about water in that last sentence. It doesn't even make any sense for water to be what you were talking about.

      A few shovel digs and up comes potable water?

      You can't just keep misrepresenting what I'm saying. I didn't say shovel digs, although there are certainly places where you could reach the ice with a shovel, or maybe just a broom to sweep off some of the soil. The use of powered equipment would only make sense, even if only to haul it. I'm also not saying that you could just do it anywhere. Clearly you have to choose your location so that you have access to a usable source of water if you want it to be this easy. I'm also not saying "up comes potable water" which implies that the water will be liquid and have nothing dissolved in it.

      What I'm saying is that we've already found spots, within range of areas that are suitable for a base, that have, at the very least, millions of kilograms of concentrated water ice. We've been able to identify these spots specifically because the ground over the ice in these spots is thin. That means it can be dug up, cut it into blocks, thrown into the back of a truck and driven back to the base. Then it can be melted, purified as needed (using the consumable supplies I mentioned way, way back) and used to make oxygen, as raw material for fuel-making or concrete or other chemical processes or just used for drinking, re-hydrating food, growing food, brushing teeth, etc.

      There just isn't that much mystery about how you would do it. We're still not as sure about all the ideal sites for it, but we know some already (and remember, this is only if you want to do it the really easy way, there's water in plenty of other places too, it's just not in the form of almost pure ice. The exact equipment and techniques you would use are still up for debate and experiment as well. Traditional ice cutting techniques probably wouldn't be up to snuff because the ice could be so cold it's as hard as rock or even steel. On the other hand, you can melt a cut through the ice pretty trivially with some sort of hot wire or heated blade. Or it might be more efficient to just blow it into fragments with explosives. Heck, for a Mars mission, a laser cutter might not actually be far fetched. Or maybe it would t

    64. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      How is the availability of water on Mars therefore the handwavium? That's not what you meant when you wrote that and you know it.

      I know what I meant. Apparently I didn't do as good a job of explaining it as I thought I did.

      It appears that you think I know that I meant something like "chemistry will be different on Mars".

      This is the crucial sentence: Handwavium to convert chemical transformation formulas into actual non-laboratory processes.

      Electrolysis systems for 6 people on the ISS are going to be radically different in scale than those for a bunch of colonists.

      That's the key word: scale.

      The Handwavium comes in the paragraphs in and around this sentence:

      The exact equipment and techniques you would use are still up for debate and experiment as well.

      The equipment (and spare parts, and maintenance, and assembly and repair, etc) needed to do all that stuff will be much more complicated on Mars than you think.

      On Earth, we can send out some geologists or a surveying crew, rent or buy heavy machinery, parts, drilling mud, explosives, etc of a variety of forms from a jillion different sources.

      OTOH, every bit of every kind of stuff needed on Mars will have to be sent at the beginning (whether on one ship or multiple doesn't matter), and that will drive up the cost of the expedition to absurd heights.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    65. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      Curiousity is about a ton or 2. 100 people are about 10 Curiousity's, give or take mass for life support etc.

    66. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Curiousity is about a ton or 2. 100 people are about 10 Curiousity's, give or take mass for life support etc.

      Details, details, details... (The ISS is 495 short tons, for just 6 people.)

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    67. Re:Sadly, Elon Musk is proof that by tragedy · · Score: 1

      I know what I meant. Apparently I didn't do as good a job of explaining it as I thought I did.

      I know what you meant as well. You meant: " I think you're Mars mission relies on Handwavium to convert chemical transformation formulas into actual non-laboratory processes." It's pretty clear. It clearly does _not_ mean: "you won't be able to get the water".

      Electrolysis systems for 6 people on the ISS are going to be radically different in scale than those for a bunch of colonists.

      That's the key word: scale.

      Uh, yeah. No kidding? You mean you can't use the same resources you would for 6 people to maintain 12, or 24, or 48? Well gee, shucks, you've really shown me the error of my thinking there!

      Seriously, what are you thinking? If anything, the efficiency and redundancy of these systems is going to go up with scale, if anything. At worst, you still only have to scale the amount of support equipment linearly with the number of people you intend to support. How is "scale", some sort of smoking gun?

      Now, you claim that I must have thought that, by handwavium, I thought you meant something like "chemistry will be different on Mars". I didn't, and I thought that should have been obvious, but then you go and write things like:

      The equipment (and spare parts, and maintenance, and assembly and repair, etc) needed to do all that stuff will be much more complicated on Mars than you think.

      When it's already clear that we're talking about equipment that already exists and is already in use terrestrially and in space. Which seems to suggest that maybe you really do believe that chemistry is somehow different on Mars.

      On Earth, we can send out some geologists or a surveying crew, rent or buy heavy machinery, parts, drilling mud, explosives, etc of a variety of forms from a jillion different sources.

      Sometimes. Other times we have to plan things out very carefully or there's no chance of salvaging the endeavor and thousands of tons of expensive equipment gets left behind to become a playground for penguins. Other times, things go wrong enough that everyone dies. Even here on Earth.

      OTOH, every bit of every kind of stuff needed on Mars will have to be sent at the beginning (whether on one ship or multiple doesn't matter), and that will drive up the cost of the expedition to absurd heights.

      Yes, plenty of stuff will need to be sent at the beginning. That's no surprise. I'm pretty sure I've said as much myself elsewhere on this thread. If you're really trying to bootstrap a viable colony on Mars, you spend extra to send both the supplies the astronauts will need to survive without in situ resources and you also send the equipment they can use to try to live without using those supplies. Since the technologies are pretty proven by now, however, it's pretty clear that you can recycle every drop of water at least a few times. So you can get by with about a ton of consumable supplies per astronaut per year (which includes the water, food and oxygen that they need to consume). Right now, the Falcon heavy looks like it can realistically get a kg to Mars for around $11,000. We'll triple that and say 33,000 per kg. So that's $33 million per year, per astronaut of consumable living supplies. A lot of money, to be sure. Relatively speaking, however it's not that bad viewed in the context of a manned mission to another planet.

  10. I wrote the article! by baldusi · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Glad that yoy liked it. That engine is an enabler. Methane/oxygen works incredibly well in gas-gas cycle. It's unbeatable for that.
    What I can tell is that Elon is serious in his desires. But you have to understand that the reason for that is that he has the vision and he's actually doing an ambitious but realistic plan. Next week flight will have legs on the first stage. And they'll try to pin point land it on the sea. If they do, the guys at the Cape with the big red button might let them try to land it in US soild next. But if not, that's still the cheapest rocket in its category in the world. Their modus operandi is realistic and bold. We'd better follow him because we might be watching history in the making.

    1. Re:I wrote the article! by phantomfive · · Score: 1
      Good job writing the article, nice and detailed.

      That engine is an enabler. Methane/oxygen works incredibly well in gas-gas cycle. It's unbeatable for that.

      One thing I didn't understand from the article, and maybe I just missed it; why haven't other people tried the methane/oxygen yet, if it's so good?

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:I wrote the article! by tragedy · · Score: 1

      The advantages for methane that are mentioned in the article are that it's cleaner burning than kerosene, which means more re-usability for engines. Also for Mars missions it can be made in situ using electrolysis and the sabatier process.

    3. Re:I wrote the article! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Because LH2/LOX is more efficient as a fuel/oxidiser mix. But being a fully cryogenic mix, it's a real bitch to work with (particularly LH2), which means it's expensive. So far, 'be cheap' hasn't been a major factor in government funded rockets so the more efficient LH2/LOX mix has been used. For SpaceX, 'a bit less efficient but a lot cheaper' makes Methane/LOX a more attractive mix than going for the optimum mix, and has enough advantages over RP1/LOX to be worth the development costs.

    4. Re:I wrote the article! by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

      Good job writing the article, nice and detailed.

      That engine is an enabler. Methane/oxygen works incredibly well in gas-gas cycle. It's unbeatable for that.

      One thing I didn't understand from the article, and maybe I just missed it; why haven't other people tried the methane/oxygen yet, if it's so good?

      Possibly cost? Kerosene is mostly longer chain elements which are the major component of what you get out of an oil refinery. Methane is much more special order, and harder to transport since you have to keep it liquid (so you're back to needing dual cryostat tanks).

      Of course all this changes if you're going somewhere where a planet spanning oil infrastructure is not, but lightweight hydrocarbons are easy to get.

    5. Re:I wrote the article! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, the reason is very technical. The short story is that CH4/LOX is the best on full flow staged combustion. Exactly the most difficult and expensive cycle that nobody wanted to do. And if they do, since handling a new propellent is a new development in itself, they rather do with the propellents that they know.
      In the staged combustion level, CH4 is slightly better than RP-1/LOX, if you have Russian efficiency, else RP-1 is better. But if you have an hydrogen/LOX upper stage is inferior. And since it need 27% more volume than RP-1/LOX, if you are volume limited (like everybody usually is, due to road or train transport limitations), RP-1/LOX is better. And for reusability, it depends on the parameters. Hydrogen can work, and NASA, Rocketdyne, P&W and Aerojet (now, all the same company), had a lot more experience in H2 and might be a better choice for Shuttle like applications. And if you compare to hypergolics (think Proton, Long March, etc.), hydrogen or kerosene, it is more difficult to start.
      And again, all this for a first stage, space applications might have different requirements.
      So, methane is king for a first full flow reusable engine. Which should be the pinnacle of performance, but nobody had boldly gone there.

    6. Re:I wrote the article! by baldusi · · Score: 3, Informative

      Sorry for the dupe, I forgot to login.
      Oh, the reason is very technical. The short story is that CH4/LOX is the best on full flow staged combustion. Exactly the most difficult and expensive cycle that nobody wanted to do. And if they do, since handling a new propellent is a new development in itself, they rather do with the propellents that they know.
      In the staged combustion level, CH4 is slightly better than RP-1/LOX, if you have Russian efficiency, else RP-1 is better. But if you have an hydrogen/LOX upper stage is inferior. And since it need 27% more volume than RP-1/LOX, if you are volume limited (like everybody usually is, due to road or train transport limitations), RP-1/LOX is better. And for reusability, it depends on the parameters. Hydrogen can work, and NASA, Rocketdyne, P&W and Aerojet (now, all the same company), had a lot more experience in H2 and might be a better choice for Shuttle like applications. And if you compare to hypergolics (think Proton, Long March, etc.), hydrogen or kerosene, it is more difficult to start.
      And again, all this for a first stage, space applications might have different requirements.
      So, methane is king for a first full flow reusable engine. Which should be the pinnacle of performance, but nobody had boldly gone there.

    7. Re: I wrote the article! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for the extremely interesting article! I have a lot of respect for Elon and he seems to have excellent teams behind him.

      He reminds me not so much of Tony Starke from Ironman as Peter Wetland from Prometheus. Let's just hope he doesn't decide to build robots!

    8. Re:I wrote the article! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It might be cost, though the cost of the fuel is only a tiny part of the cost of a current space rocket, so if there are significant benefits to methane/oxygen, I'm thinking it's probably not cost that stopped other people from using it.

    9. Re:I wrote the article! by TuringCheck · · Score: 1

      H2/F2 is an even more efficient mixture - in fact the highest energy chemical fuel we know of. But noone wants to touch it by a long pole. Hey, where's the pole? And my arms? And my lungs? Aaaahhhhh...

    10. Re:I wrote the article! by Teancum · · Score: 1

      I would love to see the tank that holds F2 for anything longer than a few minutes or perhaps hours.

      Seriously, as Florine is one nasty chemical that eats its way through almost anything. It eats through glass for crying out loud. I agree it might be a more efficient mixture, but there are some damn good reasons it isn't used, mostly dealing with reality and building actual vehicles rather than something on paper.

    11. Re:I wrote the article! by baldusi · · Score: 1

      The are many parameters. H2/F2 has the highest specific impulse of bipropellants. But nobody works with F2 because is a nasty chemical. Not to mention the ecological consequences
      But even using LOX as an oxidizer, H2/LOX uses 3 times more volume than RP-1/LOX. That's three times more tank mass. But H2 need to stay under 20K, while LOX 89K and CH4 100K and RP-1 above 250K or so.
      And that is quite an issue. You simply can't have zero boiloff on H2 without a cryocooler. LOX and CH4 can be done passively. RP-1 needs an easy heater. But doing passive LOX at 89K while keeping RP-1 at 250K needs to keep the tanks seprated. Thus, it's heavy and you have two different systems.
      CH4/LOX is done passively and can be done with a common bulkhead, which is the most efficient construction and has the least failure modes.

    12. Re:I wrote the article! by baldusi · · Score: 1

      Fluoride is impossible to run oxidizer rich, to drive the turbopump. The Raptor is gas gas. So you need to preburn both fuel and oxidizer. Abd here is where CH4/LOX combo shines. Turbine power is, for a given input and outlet temperature, mass flow * specific heat. RP-1 can't be run fuel rich at staged combustion pressure and heat. H2 is great, but it had 14 vs 0.9 for LOX. Since O/F is 6.0, you have too much power on the H2, and too little in the LOX side. But CH4 has about 2.1 with an O/F ratio of 3.2. So your power is very balanced and you can push the system a 50% more.
      Either 50% more chamber pressure for crazy performance or 35% lower temperature for longer life, higher reusability.
      Lastly, if you take 1kg of H2 to mass, you'd be able to make more than twice the propellant if you mix with CO2 to make CH4 through the Sabatier process, than if you simply extracted the O2 to make the LOX. Not to mention that CH4 is way easier to store than H2 while you produce your propellant and wait for the craft to arrive.

    13. Re:I wrote the article! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wonder if garden variety LNG is only CH4 or if it is a mix of molecules.
              (Propane is definitely a mix.)

      For heating, 'natural gas' doesn't have to be just CH4.
          For rocket fuel, a refining step may be required?

      Still, it seems a good choice once you are already handling LOX.

  11. Warp Drive? by NetNinja · · Score: 1

    If he invents warp drive the Vulcans will take us there.

    1. Re:Warp Drive? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You want us to hitch a ride to Mars once we invent warp drive? Perhaps we could ask the Vulcans to take up bus driving on earth while we're at it?

      The point of Star Trek is to inspire people to advance humanity. Interpreting warp drive as something that is the final goal for human improvement is contraproductive. You should realize that there will always be new goals, and that is something good.

  12. An Airforce General once said... by wisebabo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A new plane doesn't make a new engine possible. A new engine makes a new plane possible.

    It's great that there Elon Musk is pushing out gains in performance, reusability and most importantly cost in chemical engine design! Kudos to him (and his company).

    Of course for the real exploration of the solar system to begin, we'll need nuclear (fusion!) or other such unrealized technologies. Still it's a good start!

    1. Re:An Airforce General once said... by jamstar7 · · Score: 2

      A new plane doesn't make a new engine possible. A new engine makes a new plane possible.

      It's great that there Elon Musk is pushing out gains in performance, reusability and most importantly cost in chemical engine design! Kudos to him (and his company).

      Of course for the real exploration of the solar system to begin, we'll need nuclear (fusion!) or other such unrealized technologies. Still it's a good start!

      It's an excellent start for high lift capacity. You really really REALLY don't want to use nuclear engines in a biosphere, you want to use them in space.

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
    2. Re:An Airforce General once said... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, if you can build a nuclear engine which burns 100% of it's neutron flux, then it could possibly be used in the atmosphere.

      Er, wait, there is still the concern over what happens if the engine goes 'non-nominal' and spews tonnes of radioactive material across the landscape.

    3. Re:An Airforce General once said... by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Of course for the real exploration of the solar system to begin, we'll need nuclear (fusion!) or other such unrealized technologies.

      I'm not sure I'd call nuclear "unrealized." From the sounds of it, they had something ready to be assembled.

    4. Re:An Airforce General once said... by dkf · · Score: 0

      if you can build a nuclear engine which burns 100% of it's neutron flux

      True 100%? In something that can fly under its own power? Then you can use in an atmosphere and you're powering it all by fairy tears and unicorn farts, because you're using magic and not technology.

      --
      "Little does he know, but there is no 'I' in 'Idiot'!"
    5. Re:An Airforce General once said... by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      Eh. Better yet, build a nuclear rocket that doesn't release any radioactive material at all. After all, you only need the heat. Use a propellant that absorbs UV and flow it around a nuclear lightbulb, and you have a rocket many times as efficient as anything we can build today, even at the low end of its theoretical range. Anyhow, it should be usable in atmosphere...

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    6. Re:An Airforce General once said... by Immerman · · Score: 1

      > if you can build a nuclear engine which burns 100% of it's neutron flux...

      You don't "burn" neutron flux - some hits other fuel and sustains the nuclear reaction, the rest escapes. Unless you have some sort of science fiction "neutron mirror", everything that escapes your reactor gets embedded in the surrounding matter, quite often making that radioactive as well. You also need to make sure you contain all the byproducts - neutron flux is a transient problem, shut off the reactor or stand far enough away and it rapidly becomes a non-issue. Radioactive cesium dumped into the environment on the other hand is a major problem, we wouldn't want to attempt something like Project Orion on Earth. The nuclear lightbulb mentioned in one of the earlier replies

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    7. Re:An Airforce General once said... by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Provided of course that nothing goes wrong.

      Looking at that stubby article it seems like "light bulbs" could be a significant improvement over traditional power reactor cycles as well, any idea why we never hear about research in that direction?

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    8. Re:An Airforce General once said... by jamstar7 · · Score: 1

      Eh. Better yet, build a nuclear rocket that doesn't release any radioactive material at all. After all, you only need the heat. Use a propellant that absorbs UV and flow it around a nuclear lightbulb, and you have a rocket many times as efficient as anything we can build today, even at the low end of its theoretical range. Anyhow, it should be usable in atmosphere...

      Interesting stub. But the engine eventually will become so radioactive that you can't get near it. I'd still want to test this thing in space just in case. It could open up the nearer planets and asteroids to colonisation and exploitation...

      --
      Understanding the scope of the problem is the first step on the path to true panic.
  13. Terrible writing. by labradore · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Is anyone making sense of this? I know what all the terms are but the facts are more or less jumbled up together in ways that don't lend themselves to meaningful comparison.

  14. Point Rocket by Luthair · · Score: 1

    Light match. Its the same plan we all have.

  15. Send him to Mars by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    An interesting experiment would be for him to go with 99 other libertarian fellow to see how they could survive without big govt

  16. Re: Orbital Sciences and SpaceX are the real playe by cbhacking · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You know, if you're going to talk about the explosion of 1 (out of 9) rockets on one launch, you really should also mention the fact that they were able to complete the primary mission anyhow... they lost one nozzle, it shut down automatically, the fuel was diverted to the other nozzles, and they burned a little longer. They successfully rendezvoused with the ISS anyhow, despite a moderately explosive engine failure during launch. Let that sink in for a moment. Many rockets wouldn't even have been able to reach orbit in the case of a nozzle simply shutting down, much less blowing up.

    In fairness to your complaint, though, the secondary goal of the mission was not attempted. SpaceX said they could give 95% assurance that the satellite would reach its safe orbit (not putting the ISS at risk), but NASA required over 99% assurance. Due to the extra fuel they'd had to burn, this could not be guaranteed. Still, it was highly likely they could have pulled it off, and likely would have tried under different circumstances.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

    --
    There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
  17. Profitable? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We did away with NASA for the most part to privatize it. ; (
    So I wonder how profitable it is for a corporation to go to mars on a science mission? Paid for no doubt by our taxes, so what's the diffrence, other than corporate profits?

    1. Re:Profitable? by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Efficiency.

      Space X is doing little that's truly revolutionary, they're just busy trying to make space flight ever more profitable using refinements of existing technology. And it's not like NASA was exactly bad for corporate profits - they didn't build all those rocket pieces themselves after all.

      There are places where government run operations seems to be the natural solution: unprofitable "blue sky" research and natural monopolies that are prone to exploitation being a couple obvious cases. But when that R&D begins to stagnate with a workable but severely sub-optimal solution (the Shuttle? Really? Could you design a less efficient vehicle?)... well perhaps there's room for let some profit-driven initiative in.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
  18. Re: Orbital Sciences and SpaceX are the real playe by camperdave · · Score: 1

    Call me when their engines stop exploding.

    Ring! Ring! The engine didn't explode. Let me quote directly from the youtube link you posted:

    Approximately one minute and 19 seconds into last night's launch, the Falcon 9 rocket detected an anomaly on one first stage engine. Initial data suggests that one of the rocket's nine Merlin engines, Engine 1, lost pressure suddenly and an engine shutdown command was issued. We know the engine did not explode, because we continued to receive data from it. Panels designed to relieve pressure within the engine bay were ejected to protect the stage and other engines. Our review of flight data indicates that neither the rocket stage nor any of the other eight engines were negatively affected by this event.

    --
    When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  19. Petty nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    While I think your comments are leaning towards sarcastic, I'll try to be nice, so you have no problem wasting money and time, to fly to a dead planet for what? Is it going to cure disease? Is it going to cause the entire human race to stop with foolish wars over religion, patriotism, or ego?

    Those are A FEW problems, out of many I have with it!

    When I was younger I was all into this stuff, I have at least need to admit to that. In some ways I still am with astronomy. But it is a tremendous waste of time and money that could be put to better use. Like a planet called earth, and if you think you could escape the flaws of mankind on earth by living on Mars without your mates going insane and it turning to complete chaos, you should remember humans are animals, even with are 'advanced brain' there are things you will not control.

    1. Re:Petty nonsense by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      I, on the other hand, feel no need to be nice in responding to Luddite swill.

      Your exact argument could have been used circa 1500 in opposing exploration and development of the Americas.

    2. Re: Petty nonsense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow. It amazes me that people can not fathom how the earnest attempt to colonise another planet is not a necessary step in mastery over our more urgent local problems. War, starvation, overpopulation the environment of the planet are problems we can only delay or worse expedite wit small solutions. These however are completely solveable once we have mastery over our solar system.

  20. From low earth orbit directly to Mars? by steve.cri · · Score: 1

    That seems bold. Everybody else so far has practiced their aim on the moon first.

    1. Re:From low earth orbit directly to Mars? by taiwanjohn · · Score: 1

      Golden Spike is already offering tickets to the lunar surface for $750M a seat, and that price is likely to come down a lot once SpaceX gets its reusable rockets working. Although they are contracting the design of a dedicated lander from Northrup Grumman, I have also seen sketches of a landing stage for the Dragon capsule, so there are multiple efforts underway. It seems likely that at least one of them will reach the moon before anyone gets to Mars.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    2. Re:From low earth orbit directly to Mars? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      The problem with Golden Spike is that I have yet to see a single customer. A nice idea in theory, in practice they aren't going to the Moon yet.

      I hope that changes.

  21. reusable by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 2

    This system would be capable of transporting 100 colonists at a time to Mars, and would be fully reusable.

    I initially misread that as saying that the 100 colonists would be reusable.

    Well, they need something to eat!

  22. He just needs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    to grow buy a good mafia suit and a cat he's attached to and slick his hair back..nah Elon Musk can't do the evil genius.

  23. Acting American? by pablo_max · · Score: 1

    I thought he was South African?

    1. Re:Acting American? by Soralin · · Score: 1

      And a US Citizen as well. (And also Canadian)

    2. Re:Acting American? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Nope. He was born South African but he gave that up, since he really wanted to be an American.
      He had Canadian, but I am not sure whether he gave that up.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    3. Re:Acting American? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      So technically he is an African-American?

      At least he has as good of a claim to that title as anybody else who uses the term. He just lacks the dark skin, as if that mattered for anything.

    4. Re:Acting American? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Oh, I bring that up everytime somebody says that term and applies it to a black man only. There are also plenty of brown skin there from India, pakistan, etc who have since moved to America. i.e. they are also African-American.

      Personally, I am tired of it all. We are just Americans here.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    5. Re:Acting American? by Teancum · · Score: 1

      I happen to agree with you, but it is a thought provoking thing that smacks against political correctness when I bring the term up with regards to Elon Musk. He deserves to be proud of his South African heritage, and it should be pointed out that any kid from Africa likely could have achieved the success of Elon Musk if they shared his passion and drive (with a bit of intelligence thrown in). Family connections in Canada certainly helped, but it should be an inspirational story to everybody on that continent who deserves some local heroes as well.

    6. Re:Acting American? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      That is why we desperately need to go back to the old immigration policy. It used to be that if you had skills that we wanted, you were welcome. Now, it is about nation (mexico gets 50% of all visas) and if you have family here. That is the WRONG way to do things.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  24. Follows through on his promises? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Where's that hyperloop thing again? What a nutter.

  25. Stay home by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If you're not willing to die on Mars then you probably shouldn't go.

    Most of our ancestors came to the Americas with no intent of returning to their homeland. They were the bright eyed wannabes of their age.

    1. Re:Stay home by Chas · · Score: 1

      Yeah, they went someplace else STILL ON EARTH.

      --


      Chas - The one, the only.
      THANK GOD!!!
  26. Musk Pump and Dump Ploy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Musk has already dumped the plans (pie n' the sky) and will now play to Pump N' Dump the stock.

  27. Re:Perhaps Mars One and Space X are tighter than w by WindBourne · · Score: 2

    zero chance. Mars one is talking about putting individual dragons connecting together, on the surface. There is little chance of that really working for ppl and dealing with the constant radiation.
    In addition, Mars one talks about sending 6 ppl at a time. SpaceX is doing 100 at a time.
    What Mars one is, is a back-up plan IFF SpaceX fails. Otherwise, SpaceX will be on mars BEFORE Mars-one launches a mission with the robots (though they MIGHT be able to launch one or two exploratory missions.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  28. Re: Orbital Sciences and SpaceX are the real playe by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    OSC being a real player? Not even close. They own NO ip related to launching. And even in sats, they are only SO-SO.
    To even think that they are a real player is a total joke.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  29. Why not planetary landers. by Immerman · · Score: 3, Informative

    I imagine it has something to do with the fact that It takes considerably less energy to escape Earth entirely than to go into even a low orbit, and what is to be gained by stopping in orbit? The craft you transfer to will have had to already make the trip up itself, you may as well just put your passengers in it and save the stop. Our rocket technology is mostly not terribly dependent on whether it's operating in air or vacuum, and for a reusable craft you have to be able to land on Mars and take off again with minimal planet-side infrastructure anyway, so any potential strength and weight reductions for an craft unsuitable for an Earth launch would be severely limited - most of the benefit could likely be gained from a breakaway 1st stage that just handles getting the rocket to a Mars-surface equivalent gravity-well "depth".

      Moreover, the vast majority of the craft weight is fuel and tanks which will need to be landed to refuel anyway - no sense adding a bunch of fuel-hauling longboats if you can gracefully land the gas tanks rocket on their tail. The reason the moon missions used a lander were probably twofold: control systems were not yet advanced enough to land a full rocket on it's tail, and fuel for the entire mission had to be carried from Earth. If you could refuel on the Moon then it might well have made more sense to land the whole, potentially much smaller, EarthMoon rocket and refuel it.

    Where space-only vessels become useful is once you have multiple "ports" with their own "longboat" / space elevator infrastructure already in place to allow cargo/passenger transfer and refueling. After all surface-to-orbit is the most expensive part of the trip, and much can be gained by not needing to include the capacity to handle that, but only if it doesn't mean hauling along a completely second vessel for the ride.

    Alternately if ion drives were mature enough to propel the interplanetary stage, but not yet powerful enough for a surface launch, then the massive efficiency boost might make it worth having it a separate landing vehicle - no sense dropping a large useless ion drive into a gravity well and hauling it up again. Since most of the weight is the drive rather than the fuel as with rockets it changes the dynamics of the situation.

    --
    --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    1. Re:Why not planetary landers. by Teancum · · Score: 1

      I imagine it has something to do with the fact that It takes considerably less energy to escape Earth entirely than to go into even a low orbit.

      That isn't entirely true. Just as the Apollo missions did a brief orbit around the Earth immediately after launch but before TLI (trans-lunar injection), there is no reason to avoid going to LEO and does not require any additional energy. What does cost energy is to perform an orbital plane change to go to the ISS, which is set at an orbital inclination that made it easier to launch from Kazakhstan, thus it is less than ideal for a launch from either Florida or from the ESA launch facility in French Guiana. Both of those launch locations have been used for vehicles sent to dock with the ISS (obviously the Space Shuttle, but other stuff too), so it isn't too hard but it does cause some problems.

      The nice thing about even a temporary LEO maneuver is that you can do a quick check of your systems, consider possibly an abort back to the Earth if necessary, and you don't need a very tight launch window as you can wait for the insertion point while already in space to reignite the engines for the trans-Mars injection which also sends you to escape velocity.

      If you could put a space station as a rendezvous point for some in-space construction (even if just docking components sent on multiple launches), there may be some merit to that as well, but it will still cost a little bit of fuel for performing the rendezvous maneuvers and does make the mission a bit more complex at the beginning. Von Braun was a strong advocate for the idea when planning to go to the Moon (the "Earth Rendezvous" concept), so it isn't without a precedent either.

      I am a big fan of the Aldrin Cyclers myself. It removes the need for a huge rocket going to Mars as you only need enough of a spacecraft + supplies to get to a vehicle relatively near the Earth, and then the cycling vehicle will provide ample radiation protection and all of the room you need to be comfortable. Basically, you could live in what amounts to be luxury accommodations in a cruise ship complete with artificial gravity (via a spinning torus or at least some spin). It requires building some infrastructure, but you don't have to die with the rocket equation keeping you from sending what you need. That is the best place to have a space-only vehicle instead of in LEO as well.

    2. Re:Why not planetary landers. by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Going to the moon doesn't involve escaping the Earth - the moon itself is after all in orbit, so any non-impact rendezvous will involve entering a roughly matching orbit. The Earth's Hill sphere, the region of space in which an object will tend to orbit the Earth rather than the sun, extends out about 3x further than the moon's orbit. Granted with a bit of cleverness you may be able to convert orbital velocity to interplanetary velocity, but it's not necessarily the most optimal path (disclaimer, I am not an orbital mechanic)

      There are numerous advantages to an orbital staging area, but they almost all boil down to your surface-to-orbit rockets not being powerful enough to lift everythin at once, and it sounds like Musk believes that won't be a problem. Certainly the rocket that can launch a handful of colonists to Mars would have numerous commercial applications for surface-to-orbit transportation as well - after all the fuel/lift capacity tends to scale faster than the weight of the rocket itself, so the bigger the rocket the cheaper the cargo-pound cost to orbit. The last remaining advantage is being able to test that nothing was damaged during launch - and since most of your cargo will presumably be securely packed that won't exactly be easy in orbit. Besides which launching from Earth orbit to Mars-transfer orbit will likely be almost as high thrust (an instantaneous impulse being the theoretically most efficient use of fuel), so you're just as likely to cause problems after the inspection as before. Not to mention securing everything again post-inspection while in micro-gravity will probably be far more error-prone than on Earth.

      I too like the concept of Aldrin Cyclers. Of course rendezvousing with the cycler will require just as much delta-V as launching yourself on a matching transfer orbit to Mars, the advantage being that you can potentially travel more slowly thanks to the heavy radiation shielding, and don't have to accelerate any of your long-term life support or recreational facilities. It actually seems like it could be a great candidate for asteroid mining R&D - find a decent sized candidate asteroid that can be efficiently nudged it into the proper orbit, then start gradually hollowing it out and building space stations inside. For the first years or decades it would be little more than a giant mass of shielding with some hollows inside it, but it's probably far less technically challenging to dig out a giant cavern in microgravity than to build a comparable big metal can, then all you need is an air-sack - essentially an inflatable space station in a cave, minus all of that pesky radiation shielding. Even if it springs a leak you've got the rock slowing the escape of air to give you ample time for repairs. Over time it could then grow organically into a wandering city. It could actually be one of the more productive ways to develop asteroid-mining and space manufacture technologies - after all it'll probably take decades to get to the point where it's actually cost-effective compared planetary construction, so why not let the R&D phase build you an interplanetary cruise ship while you're at it? It also neatly sidesteps the issue of capturing an asteroid in Earth or lunar orbit, where orbital instabilities or navigational errors could turn out very badly - I presume such a cycler would never want to enter the Hill sphere of either planet.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
  30. Visualization of MCT Heavy Lift Vehicles by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 2

    Here's a visualization of the MCT Heavy Lift Vehicles, to scale with the existing Falcon 9 and the under-construction Falcon 9 Heavy. (Rocket designation is fictional, of course.) The visualization includes possible cargo shrouds.

    Yes, this monster will have a larger lift capacity than the Saturn V. Each individual Raptor is less capable than an F-1 engine, but there will be nine of them, rather than five.

  31. Re:Perhaps Mars One and Space X are tighter than w by Teancum · · Score: 2

    I think it is a stretch to even suggest that Mars One is a backup plan to SpaceX. At best I would put Inspiration Mars (Dennis Tito's project) in that realm, assuming Mr. Tito goes anywhere with his project as well.

    I saw a Reddit conversation with the guys of Mars One that showed they really knew almost nothing about the technical side of things, and sort of thought they could magically buy anything they needed to get the job done. That might work for something such as an Antarctic expedition where the tools and experience of going there has already been done and is in large scale production for other purposes, but it doesn't work for going well beyond the frontier of human experience.

    At least SpaceX has put stuff into space, where photos like this are something that their equipment has actually taken. The guys with Mars One have been no higher than what you can get with a commercial jetliner, and that is as a passenger as well. I like big dreams, but either company needs to unfortunately produce much of the equipment needed for going to Mars in-house as nobody else is even making the stuff necessary. SpaceX knows how to make stuff that works in space and has stuff in space right now to show it can get the job done. What does Mars One even have?

  32. Why not the moon first? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've always been wondering, if the end goal is to eventually colonize and extract resources, why not start with the moon first? The 2~3 day trip of zero gravity in a claustrophobic environment is infinitely less risky than the 150~300 day trip to Mars. Not to mention something were to go awry in a moon mission, there's at least a chance of rescue and immediate form of communication.

    I love Musk's vision and respect what he's doing, but with my admittedly limited knowledge, I just don't get the leap he's taking here. If someone can rationalize it for me, please do.

    1. Re:Why not the moon first? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Well, gee. It should be obvious that the man KNOWS a great deal more than you do. Have you noticed the fact that nearly all those that want to go to the moon, or push the SLS, are those that are NOT rocket scientists, or even work in the field? In spite of the logic that has been argued over and over, you and others ignore it.

      BUT, the good news for you is that Bigelow wants to go and more importantly, many nations want to go there, preferably before China. As such, NASA, along with other nations and private space, are going to go to the moon around 2020. And no doubt, SpaceX will be a part of it because they will be the cheapest choice. BUT, they are not going to front the money for it. Their money is focused on Mars.

      BTW, this is no different than BA. BA is focused on the moon, BUT, BA units WILL be going to mars. But BA is not going to fund it.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  33. Why not the moon? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've always been wondering, if the end goal is to eventually colonize and extract resources, why not start with the moon first? The 2~3 day trip of zero gravity in a claustrophobic environment is infinitely less risky than the 150~300 day trip to Mars. Not to mention something were to go awry in a moon mission, there's at least a chance of rescue and immediate form of communication.

    I love Musk's vision and respect what he's doing, but I just don't get the leap he's taking here. If someone can rationalize it for me, please do.

  34. Evolution in action, The answer to are we still ev by ralphaostrander · · Score: 1

    Life fills all niches and space is just another niche to fill.

  35. Send all the middle managers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    First

  36. Re:Perhaps Mars One and Space X are tighter than w by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is it really that hard to write "people?"

  37. VAZIMIR ENGINE = CRAZY FAST SPEED by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Astronaut Chang Diaz says he can get us to Mars in 39 days, which is a good idea. Space Travel is dangerous & you would want the commute to be as short as possible. Unfortunately, it would take 3 months of aero braking to slow the ship down so that you could land on Mars.

  38. Living on MARS Why??? by pebear · · Score: 1

    When I was in the Service and my time was almost up in the Air Force and I pissed off my First Sargent in Anchorage AK, he sent me to a place 50 miles south of the arctic Circle on the Yukon River called Galena Air Force Base. The average Temperature was 45 below 0 F. It got down to -80 one day. I hated it more than anything. Now at least it had ice fishing, snow-mobiling, plenty of Indians to hang out with get get drunk with, none of that will be found on MARS. Now MARS will Make Galena AK in the Winter look like a tropical paradise. There is a reason people don't live on MARS today. That reason is that it's no inhabitable and it's to fucking cold and the atmosphere is not heavy enough with enough O2 to support human life. So why do I want to go to MARS, oh yeah I fuck don't want to go to MARS. I'm very fucking happy living here on earth riding my Harley's all over God creation. You can ride a Harley around Galena AK but you would never be able to on MARS cause MARS Sucks Dick

    --
    Paul E. Bahre
    1. Re:Living on MARS Why??? by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Why did so many ppl move to America? Why did ppl move to Australia? Many of them DIED enroute and living in these places as well.
      BUT, they enjoyed their lives and a number of them left quite the legacy.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  39. after all that by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    we fight.