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Tesla: A Carmaker Or Grid-Storage Company?

cartechboy (2660665) writes "Let's be real, the three Detroit automakers were skeptical of Tesla Motors, and rightfully so. But at this point, it's pretty hard to deny the impact this Silicon Valley automaker is having on the industry. Now there's a new question buzzing around: Is Tesla Motors actually a carmaker, or is it really just a grid-storage company? If you think about it, the company's stock price is too high for Toyota or Daimler to just buy it outright. So maybe Tesla's gigafactory will not only make batteries for its own electric cars, but it could also sell battery packs to electric utilities and others. In reality, the gigafactory could become its own separate company and just sell the battery packs to Tesla, and others."

26 of 151 comments (clear)

  1. carbon offsets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    No, its just a carbon offset dealer.

  2. Panasonic by AmiMoJo · · Score: 5, Informative

    The gigafactory is basically a Panasonic battery factory. Tesla is involved because they want it in the US and are a major consumer of Panasonic batteries, but all the tech is Japanese. So yeah, Panasonic is in the grid storage business. They do home battery packs and wind farm output smoothing in Japan, and maybe soon in the US.

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    1. Re:Panasonic by Ralph+Wiggam · · Score: 5, Informative

      Tesla is putting up something like $2B of the total estimated $5B price tag. So they would be a partner, not just a consumer.

      But you are correct that US news outlets were overplaying Tesla's involvement in the project and underplaying Panasonic's.

    2. Re:Panasonic by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 2

      The current Tesla cells are too expensive for grid storage. Nickle and cobalt are not cheap. Nothing says they can't make two types of batteries though, nickle cobalt for cars and manganese dioxide or iron phosphate for the grid. Or they could have a nice lithium sulfur chemistry they could use for both; there has been a lot of recent development in that area.

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    3. Re:Panasonic by AmiMoJo · · Score: 4, Interesting

      In 15 to 20 years time when "worn out" Model S battery packs start to become available I expect one of the main applications will be storage for domestic solar installations that can tolerate having only 70% capacity remaining. Tesla have said they estimate a 250,000 mile lifespan for their packs (down to 80% capacity), and offer an 8 year unlimited mileage warranty that seems to back that up (averaging 15k/year for 8 years is 120k miles, but some people do double that).

      Japanese manufacturers already offer this.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    4. Re:Panasonic by wchin · · Score: 3, Interesting

      At the cell level, Tesla is probably already paying under $250/kWh. Maybe even just under $200/kWh. That's below most lithium iron phosphate battery costs which are already competitive with lead acid batteries for total life cycle costs in an off-grid solar battery setup. So this "too expensive" comment is probably not right. Further, if they recycle battery cells from transportation use to grid storage use, then the costs could be far lower.

    5. Re:Panasonic by blindseer · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I had a discussion with a coworker about the viability for solar power and out of that discussion came a challenge to find out what it would cost for a solar power system for a home. Taking up the challenge I spent a weekend doing the math on what it would cost to take my house off-grid and live off a solar and battery system. What I found was that it would cost ten times what I pay now for electricity.

      What I worked with was the going average cost of common lead-acid batteries for storage, the estimated cost of common solar panels, and the electronics to make it all work. It's been a while since I did this research and I'm not sure if I assumed three or four days of electric storage. If we assume just one day of storage, which means no backup for a stormy day, then I might be able to halve the cost of the system but that still only gets us to five times the cost of utility power.

      I calculated that if I cover my entire roof with solar panels that even in the winter I'd have enough power to run my home, assuming average power usage, excepting big power items like stoves and clothes dryers, I assumed that such items would be run off of natural gas. In the summer I'd have a glut of power, enough to run an electric car.

      For a moment let's assume you are correct and prices come down to where everyone would rather buy solar panels and a battery pack for their home than rely on utility power. What happens for extended periods of poor weather? People would have to have either utility power for that or, I assume more likely, a backup generator. A utility is going to want a monthly service fee for the wire to the home even if no power is consumed, at least that is how I pay for my natural gas service. A generator isn't free either but we are assuming the total cost is still in favor of solar panels on every rooftop.

      What other question I have is how much material will this take? That's a lot of valuable metals in people's basements, or placed on a grid for utility provided storage. I recall seeing someone that did the computation and for grid storage for the entire USA it would take a battery the size of Oklahoma that was two stories tall. Perhaps I recall incorrectly, I'm probably off by an order of magnitude or two but the battery had to be huge.

      If your prediction does come true I don't see that happening for a very long time. Solar panels and batteries have a long way to go until they are cheaper than coal and natural gas. I think we will have nuclear power cheaper than coal first.

      --
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    6. Re:Panasonic by Green+Salad · · Score: 2

      Please mod parent up as interesting.

      I went through a similar exercise for my house, but my goals were different. I want some things to keep chugging during a power outage or brownout. I wanted some lights (not all of them) to keep working during a power outage. I didn't seek to totally power the house, but to independently power (and self-contain) a few subsystems to eliminate wires and some panel circuits. (low-power IT gear, outdoor LED floodlights, air-exchange vents, attic vents) I also didn't seek to sell power back or store much of a reserve. Apparently, this is an unusual approach.

      Recalling that rescue workers dealing with Prius might not know if a vehicle is de-energized, one of the thoughts that went through my mind is that an electrician or fireman might think that by cutting off power at the breaker, they can assume the entire house and all subsystems are de-energized. I wonder if their procedures involve checking for alternate sources of power such as checking for solar panels and uninterruptible power supplies. A Prius or Tesla is a distinct shape that can serve as a warning. My house isn't distinctive. Fortunately, a power outage happened and I had to run around the house silencing UPS alarms. Problem solved.

  3. Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack by bferrell · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Having investigated this scenario, here's how it works:

    Solarcity installs a system (panels, storage, chargers/inverters) on your premises at zero cost to you. They get the tax subsidy offered for the installation. You roof is now occupied by solarcity. They sell you electricity AND what you don't use, they sell to your local utility. You have now switched energy providers and are STILL paying power bills.

    I fully recognize they they take on what maintenance there is on this plant... But there isn't much and they are completely unregulated. They charge the home owner whatever they please, just so it's below the regulated utility.

    It doesn't sit well with me and I won't do business that way.

  4. Better Yet by JimSadler · · Score: 3, Funny

    By covering the top of the Tesla with solar cells the cars could gather solar energy, store it and sell the excess to the power companies. Social chaos will soon follow. Just wait until the power companies have to hop scotch over homes that provide their own energy and the price of energy for homes on the grid goes through the roof. Big oil, coal, the nuclear industry as well as traditional car makers and associated trades could sink below the waves. The shifting of incredible amounts of money from those industries alone could generate financial chaos. Combined with breakthroughs like 3D printing we are entering an era in which we have no economic model to apply to this new way of life.

    1. Re:Better Yet by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Informative

      The surface area of the roof isn't really enough to provide much solar PV electricity, but that isn't to say it can't be used for something. For a few years now Toyota have offered a solar panel on the roof of the Prius that can run the AC while it is parked without using fuel or depleting the batteries. The Nissan Leaf uses a solar panel to keep the 12V battery topped up (not the main lithium pack, the 12V vehicle power lead acid) and I'm surprised more manufacturers don't do that now.

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      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    2. Re:Better Yet by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      The Audi A8 was offered with a warm weather package, the sunroof goes from ordinary metal to carrying a solar panel which is used to run the fresh air blower while it's parked in the sun. Came out in 1994. Doesn't charge the battery though, which is unfortunate given how much electrical crap is in there.

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  5. Stock price too high? by gwstuff · · Score: 2

    Facebook could have bought them instead of buying WhatsApp and Ocular, and spending just a little bit more.

    1. Re:Stock price too high? by fishybell · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeaaaaah, no. They couldn't. Remember who runs Tesla?

      Iron man?

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      ><));>
    2. Re:Stock price too high? by vux984 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Paypal is a good idea, it's just a terrible company.

  6. Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack by mr+dirtbag · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It doesn't sit well with me and I won't do business that way.

    Seems like the customer who can't afford the upfront cost of panels is benefiting from cheaper energy bills.

    How is this unfair?

  7. Probably not by Animats · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Batteries for grid storage have different properties than batteries for cars.

    • Weight doesn't matter for grid storage.
    • Recharge time need not be faster than discharge rate.
    • Grid storage batteries should last a decade or two. Car storage batteries only need a working life of a few thousand hours.
    • Efficiency over a charge/discharge cycle matters more for grid storage.

    So grid storage tends to use different battery technologies than vehicles.

  8. Re:So if they (GM/whomever) wanted to buy the comp by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 2

    That's all fantastic in your zero mass-zero friction theoretical land, but if you can't get financing based on not having enough value in your company that's the same thing as a stock price being too high. Otherwise, I'd be able to form a company tonight and buy Microsoft.

    --
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  9. Giga market play by ElitistWhiner · · Score: 2

    The real position in play is abstraction over the GRID and selling it back as a viable business model. EV's are transitional technologies on the way to the future. Tesla cars are proof-of-concepts that a future can work without petroleum dependancy. They spotlight those millions of tailpipe emissions which only electric and hydrogen eliminate.

    Power markets refuse to invest in the capture of smokestack emissions at source so the exercise Tesla is running remains retail only. When hydrogen competes with electric fuel cells that day will mark petroleum's last tailpipe gasp. Then emissions at the smokestack are all that's left to capture then.

    Tesla will be there and in position to sell you power for your business, home or car in whatever form required from an eco-conscious GRID that puts the cost of capture into the end product and puts producer's responsibility back onto the consumer end user.

    1. Re:Giga market play by robot256 · · Score: 2

      Fact: The U.S. power grid has continually reduced its overall emissions for decades now.

      Fact: Electric vehicles produce less overall emissions than a 35mpg car, even on the dirtiest grid in the U.S, and most EVs are operated on much cleaner grids.

      Fact: Over 1/3 of EV drivers own enough solar generation to offset the power used in their cars, making them truly zero emissions.

      Zero-emissions electric vehicles exist now, if you have the money or lifestyle to fit it. I too think it will be a great day when hydrogen cars actually compete with battery-electric vehicles. But the obstacles we have to solve before then are many:

      1) invent a way to convert electricity into hydrogen that actually approaches the efficiency of batteries, if not equaling it, instead of making it out of methane like we do now or wasting half your power in electrolysis.

      2) build hydrogen fueling stations everywhere before a solid base of users exists to pay for it.

      3) convince the public that hydrogen cars won't explode like the Hindenburg (stupid but important).

      4) make them cheaper than an equivalent battery-electric car, because by the time all that gets done BEVs will be so far ahead you will wonder why you bothered with hydrogen at all.

      Once Tesla has created a super-cheap source of grid storage batteries, everyone with an electric car can get solar and go off the grid. Then the power plants and centralized distributors will be forced to shut down. Then local grids will spring back up so people can use communal backup generators on cloudy weeks, but we will never again need the complex monstrosity of our present power grid because all generation will be local. We already have new factories installing enough solar and wind to power themselves, so it's only a matter of time before the grid becomes redundant and uneconomical to maintain.

  10. Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack by ganjadude · · Score: 4, Informative

    I cant speak for this company but we have a setup like this at our home

    What we did was sign a lease with the company, they own the panels, we own the electric. We pay them a fixed price on the panels per month which is around 25% of what we were paying prior to the installation. At the end of the month, Any excess power created above the lease price is paid to us (not the lease company) At the end of last year we made 1800$ in electric generation (after paying the fees, the actual check was somewhat higher, around 2800)

    I dont know what company we are using as my father is the one who deals with it

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  11. Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack by Ichijo · · Score: 2

    I fully recognize they they take on what maintenance there is on this plant... But there isn't much...

    They also take on the opportunity cost of capital which is around 7% annually of the cost of the installation. That's $700 per year or $58 per month for a $10,000 installation.

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  12. Tesla Cars are Grid Storage by HizookRobotics · · Score: 2

    If Tesla makes the cars' power bidirectional, the excess capacity of cars plugged in for recharging (essentially) becomes a grid-connected battery itself. I recall seeing homebrew electric cars used as "generators" during brownouts a few years back. Tesla could do this on a massive scale using individuals' cars -- and pass some of the gains (peak power) back to the car owners.

  13. Re:You need more than a battery to store grid ener by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2

    Nissan offers a "whole house UPS" feature for its Leaf EV in Japan. In the event of a power failure your car can run important appliances like the fridge for a few days. You can use it to reduce your energy bills by storing solar energy not used during the day too.

    --
    const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
    SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  14. Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack by lgw · · Score: 3, Insightful

    All hippie environ-wenie BS aside, the only true appeal of home solar is independence. Trading one master for another to get power is pointless. Powering your own house and car with your own equipment in a true "off the grid" way would be awesome, inspirational even. But home solar isn't quite there yet - tantalizingly close, mind you.

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  15. Close, but not quite by analien7901 · · Score: 2

    Having installed this scenario, LMFTFY: Solarcity installs a system (panels, storage, chargers/inverters) on your premises at zero cost to you. They also have options from $0 down to fully paying for the system. They get the tax subsidy offered for the installation. This is correct except where it's required by law to go to the owner of the home; I live in Oregon which has $1500/year for 4 years that is required to go to the homeowner. SC offsets this credit by charging $75/month extra for 4 years, which means I have a net credit of $600 each year coming my way. You roof is now occupied by solarcity. Yes, the roof has solar panels on it. They sell you electricity AND what you don't use, they sell to your local utility. The power back to the grid goes as a credit on your account and is pulled watt-for-watt when you use more than the solar panels can produce (aka at night). The systems are guaranteed for a certain number of watts per year and, if it comes in under that, SC actually writes you a check for the difference. You have now switched energy providers and are STILL paying power bills. Yes. You pay for the system based on the power it generates. I can't really tell if your comment here is trying to be naive; you expect a $0 down system to not charge you for the power? I fully recognize they they take on what maintenance there is on this plant... But there isn't much and they are completely unregulated. They charge the home owner whatever they please, just so it's below the regulated utility. Maintenance, hopefully, is minimal. However, they provide full insurance for the roof (where it was installed) as well as theft (apparently it's a problem). They are regulated by the contract that is signed at the beginning. The price is based on the contract; one option is to have a variable rate per year, the other is to pay (in my case $250) up front and have a fixed price for the term of the contract, which is $20 years. My price came in slightly lower than my utility company was charging at the time and is set for $20 years; this with the fact that my power company raises rates every year and is in the process to do a relatively large jump to pay for some new complexes, I think I am in a very good position. And to touch on some of your reply below this: Uhhh... it's unfair in that solarcity uses the tax benefit/subsidies due the homeowner AND has the homeowner's roof locked up under a 20 year lease? I've calculated that at retail levels, equipment costs and installation is paid off in 10 years. That's before the tax benefits/subsidies are applied. Not sure what pricing you're using; I have a 4.9kw system which would be close to a $23,000 system installed. My fixed price for 20 years is 0.0984/kWh and qualifying credits I could get is around $16,000, bringing the total cost to around $7,000 meaning 14 years before my SC would break even on a private system, after credits. And that implies you have $23,000 in cash to pay for the system. How you believe it is unfair to sign a contract, I do not know. Most tax benefits/subsidies are due to the owner of the system, not the homeowner. And the roof is not what is 'locked up', the lease and the system are. You are fully allowed to have the system moved (at cost of labor) to a new home. Now, let's add a peculiar California spin on this (my state). The utilities have been required by law to add storage capacity to the grid for something known as regulation... Fill in. This means regulating the grid up and down. When they regulate the grid up... They feed energy to the grid. Regulating down means absorbing from the grid. These activities are extraordinarily lucrative and the property owner get's none of that but it uses the "plant" they have effectively paid for. I'll reiterate that power to and from the grid is exchanged watt-for-watt. This is also why the utilities are crying foul over the lack of grid maintenance fees by the entities with this type of operation (there are only a few, but they're all big, pretending to be small). They get to act like an energy provid