Tesla: A Carmaker Or Grid-Storage Company?

cartechboy (2660665) writes "Let's be real, the three Detroit automakers were skeptical of Tesla Motors, and rightfully so. But at this point, it's pretty hard to deny the impact this Silicon Valley automaker is having on the industry. Now there's a new question buzzing around: Is Tesla Motors actually a carmaker, or is it really just a grid-storage company? If you think about it, the company's stock price is too high for Toyota or Daimler to just buy it outright. So maybe Tesla's gigafactory will not only make batteries for its own electric cars, but it could also sell battery packs to electric utilities and others. In reality, the gigafactory could become its own separate company and just sell the battery packs to Tesla, and others."

Comments

Panasonic

[AmiMoJo]

The gigafactory is basically a Panasonic battery factory. Tesla is involved because they want it in the US and are a major consumer of Panasonic batteries, but all the tech is Japanese. So yeah, Panasonic is in the grid storage business. They do home battery packs and wind farm output smoothing in Japan, and maybe soon in the US.

Re:Panasonic

[Ralph Wiggam]

Tesla is putting up something like $2B of the total estimated $5B price tag. So they would be a partner, not just a consumer.

But you are correct that US news outlets were overplaying Tesla's involvement in the project and underplaying Panasonic's.

Re:Panasonic

[AmiMoJo]

In 15 to 20 years time when "worn out" Model S battery packs start to become available I expect one of the main applications will be storage for domestic solar installations that can tolerate having only 70% capacity remaining. Tesla have said they estimate a 250,000 mile lifespan for their packs (down to 80% capacity), and offer an 8 year unlimited mileage warranty that seems to back that up (averaging 15k/year for 8 years is 120k miles, but some people do double that).

Japanese manufacturers already offer this.

Re:Panasonic

[wchin]

At the cell level, Tesla is probably already paying under $250/kWh. Maybe even just under $200/kWh. That's below most lithium iron phosphate battery costs which are already competitive with lead acid batteries for total life cycle costs in an off-grid solar battery setup. So this "too expensive" comment is probably not right. Further, if they recycle battery cells from transportation use to grid storage use, then the costs could be far lower.

Re:Panasonic

[blindseer]

I had a discussion with a coworker about the viability for solar power and out of that discussion came a challenge to find out what it would cost for a solar power system for a home. Taking up the challenge I spent a weekend doing the math on what it would cost to take my house off-grid and live off a solar and battery system. What I found was that it would cost ten times what I pay now for electricity.

What I worked with was the going average cost of common lead-acid batteries for storage, the estimated cost of common solar panels, and the electronics to make it all work. It's been a while since I did this research and I'm not sure if I assumed three or four days of electric storage. If we assume just one day of storage, which means no backup for a stormy day, then I might be able to halve the cost of the system but that still only gets us to five times the cost of utility power.

I calculated that if I cover my entire roof with solar panels that even in the winter I'd have enough power to run my home, assuming average power usage, excepting big power items like stoves and clothes dryers, I assumed that such items would be run off of natural gas. In the summer I'd have a glut of power, enough to run an electric car.

For a moment let's assume you are correct and prices come down to where everyone would rather buy solar panels and a battery pack for their home than rely on utility power. What happens for extended periods of poor weather? People would have to have either utility power for that or, I assume more likely, a backup generator. A utility is going to want a monthly service fee for the wire to the home even if no power is consumed, at least that is how I pay for my natural gas service. A generator isn't free either but we are assuming the total cost is still in favor of solar panels on every rooftop.

What other question I have is how much material will this take? That's a lot of valuable metals in people's basements, or placed on a grid for utility provided storage. I recall seeing someone that did the computation and for grid storage for the entire USA it would take a battery the size of Oklahoma that was two stories tall. Perhaps I recall incorrectly, I'm probably off by an order of magnitude or two but the battery had to be huge.

If your prediction does come true I don't see that happening for a very long time. Solar panels and batteries have a long way to go until they are cheaper than coal and natural gas. I think we will have nuclear power cheaper than coal first.

Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack

[bferrell]

Having investigated this scenario, here's how it works:

Solarcity installs a system (panels, storage, chargers/inverters) on your premises at zero cost to you. They get the tax subsidy offered for the installation. You roof is now occupied by solarcity. They sell you electricity AND what you don't use, they sell to your local utility. You have now switched energy providers and are STILL paying power bills.

I fully recognize they they take on what maintenance there is on this plant... But there isn't much and they are completely unregulated. They charge the home owner whatever they please, just so it's below the regulated utility.

It doesn't sit well with me and I won't do business that way.

Better Yet

[JimSadler]

By covering the top of the Tesla with solar cells the cars could gather solar energy, store it and sell the excess to the power companies. Social chaos will soon follow. Just wait until the power companies have to hop scotch over homes that provide their own energy and the price of energy for homes on the grid goes through the roof. Big oil, coal, the nuclear industry as well as traditional car makers and associated trades could sink below the waves. The shifting of incredible amounts of money from those industries alone could generate financial chaos. Combined with breakthroughs like 3D printing we are entering an era in which we have no economic model to apply to this new way of life.

Re:Better Yet

[AmiMoJo]

The surface area of the roof isn't really enough to provide much solar PV electricity, but that isn't to say it can't be used for something. For a few years now Toyota have offered a solar panel on the roof of the Prius that can run the AC while it is parked without using fuel or depleting the batteries. The Nissan Leaf uses a solar panel to keep the 12V battery topped up (not the main lithium pack, the 12V vehicle power lead acid) and I'm surprised more manufacturers don't do that now.

Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack

[mr dirtbag]

It doesn't sit well with me and I won't do business that way.

Seems like the customer who can't afford the upfront cost of panels is benefiting from cheaper energy bills.

How is this unfair?

Probably not

[Animats]

Batteries for grid storage have different properties than batteries for cars.

• Weight doesn't matter for grid storage.
• Recharge time need not be faster than discharge rate.
• Grid storage batteries should last a decade or two. Car storage batteries only need a working life of a few thousand hours.
• Efficiency over a charge/discharge cycle matters more for grid storage.

So grid storage tends to use different battery technologies than vehicles.

Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack

[ganjadude]

I cant speak for this company but we have a setup like this at our home

What we did was sign a lease with the company, they own the panels, we own the electric. We pay them a fixed price on the panels per month which is around 25% of what we were paying prior to the installation. At the end of the month, Any excess power created above the lease price is paid to us (not the lease company) At the end of last year we made 1800$ in electric generation (after paying the fees, the actual check was somewhat higher, around 2800)

I dont know what company we are using as my father is the one who deals with it

Re:Stock price too high?

[fishybell]

Yeaaaaah, no. They couldn't. Remember who runs Tesla?

Iron man?

Re:There is already a Tesla home battery pack

[lgw]

All hippie environ-wenie BS aside, the only true appeal of home solar is independence. Trading one master for another to get power is pointless. Powering your own house and car with your own equipment in a true "off the grid" way would be awesome, inspirational even. But home solar isn't quite there yet - tantalizingly close, mind you.

Re:Stock price too high?

[vux984]

Paypal is a good idea, it's just a terrible company.