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Consumers Not Impressed With 3D Printing
Lucas123 (935744) writes "Putting a 3D printer beside the coffee maker in every home, as some manufacturers hope will happen someday, is a long ways from reality as consumers today still don't understand how the technology will benefit them, according to a new study. The study, by Juniper Research, states that part of the problem is that killer applications with the appropriate eco-system of software, apps and materials have yet to be identified and communicated to potential users. And, even though HP has announced its intention to enter the 3D printing space (possibly this fall) a massive, mainstream corporation isn't likely to change the market."
Whining about lack of software as a roadblock to mass adoption of home 3D printing is absurd at this point in time.
Inexpensive 3D printing is still barely more than a toy for hobbyists. I have one (mendlemax 2), and while I love playing with it, I recognize it for what it is.
The path forward as I see it for home 3D printing is:
- spend a long damn time in the hobbyist domain
- eventually capabilities will hit a point where actual useful products can be produced, but it will still be way more effort to do so than to buy the equivilant mass-produced item.
- small niche markets will open up offering custom things and replacement parts that are no long available. I forsee a long period of time where 3D printing is practical, but at a small business level rather than a home level. The "bring your model down to staples" phase if you will.
- eventually some people will start using these services regularily and start dreaming of having one at home
- this is when 3D printing at home really takes off
This is however so far away that I may not be alive to see it. When the time comes, I'm sure someone will whip up a slick UI...
It's the same deal with photo printers. It's much easier and cheaper to go down to Walmart or Costco when you need to print out your photos and get them to use their professional quality machines to do the job. I think that 3D printers will end up in the same sport. You'll go down to Walmart, and get them to print out an item for you. You'll only need it maybe 5 times a year, so there's no point in owning your own 3D printer. There's already services where you can send a 3D file and somebody will print it out and ship it to you.
Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
“If I'd asked my customers what they wanted, they'd have said a faster horse.” – Henry Ford
Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
3-D is ok for a one-off prototype. But who needs a $1000 device that takes hours to print a happy meal toy?
Right now we have a consumer culture that doesn't really teach people to make and repair their own things (which is what a 3D printing would mostly be useful for). So while a 3D printer might someday be useful for a mechanic who needs to make car parts or a shoe salesmen who needs to make a custom shoe, most people are still expecting to go to someone else to get those things. As the technology improves and can make more things (metal parts, rubber, glass, composites) and people get more used to it, we may see the market for the technology grow, assuming it isn't outlawed first.
When I can pick up a dishwasher replacement part printed out by Whirlpool at my local kinko's and it costs less and is just as good as a cast one then 3D printing will have arrived. Till then it's for hobbyists and specialist.
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
'As soon as people learn that they can print a new battery cover for a remote control, or replace a small broken part of a kid's favorite toy, or some amazing thing no one has yet thought of, they'll start picking up.'
But they can't.
Unless that was your point.
Take your average consumer, and give them a 3d modelling package.
Ask them to make a battery cover.
It needs to fit precisely in the hole - often to +-0.2mm tolerances or it won't slide in right.
It needs to have a properly designed 'spring' or it's going to fall off again.
They don't have an accurate metrology thing that would let them measure the size of the hole.
They are at best inexperienced when trying to run 3d modelling software, much of which is at best challenging to use.
It's going to take most people quite a while before they can actually print something that fits.
This may well be too high a barrier to entry.
Printing things from thingiverse et al is another matter.
At the moment, a 'Customers not impressed with CNC lathes' story would make almost as much sense.
That would have been the headline in the 70s. This is why consumers don't generally drive innovation, and why judging the prospects of a new technology before its had time to overcome some of its early weaknesses is premature.
Or, you could just continue doing what people do today: tape it back on. Total expense, tenth of a cent. Total time spent, 15 seconds.
If those kinds of things are what people are hanging their visions on, forget it.