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US Officials Cut Estimate of Recoverable Monterey Shale Oil By 96%
First time accepted submitter steam_cannon (1881500) writes "The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) is planning to release a major 96% reserve downgrade to the amount of oil and gas recoverable from the Monterey Shale formation, one of the largest oil/gas reserves in the United States. After several years of intensified exploration the Monterey oil shale play seems to have much less recoverable oil and gas then previously hoped. This is due to multiple factors such as the more complex rippled geology of the shale and over-hyped recovery estimates by investors. By official estimates the Monterey Shale formation makes up 2/3 of the shale reserves in the US and by some estimates 1/3 of all crude reserves in the US. Not a drop in the bucket. Next Month the EIA.gov will be announcing cutting it's estimates for Monterey by 96%. That's a huge blow to the US energy portfolio, trillions of dollars, oil and gas the US might have used for itself or exported. Presently the White House is evaluating making changes to US oil export restrictions so this downgrade may result in changes to US energy policy. As well as have a significant impact on US economy and the economy of California."
I wonder if this might change the Obama administration's calculus and their continued delays on the proposed pipeline.
"Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason."
Proofread this horrendous summary? Have a little chat with yourself.
I predict that before a week has passed, someone will be claiming Obama personally rigged the study as part of a deliberate attempt to sabotage the oil industry.
One more incentive to the US to turn towards renewable energy sources. The USA are lagging way behind western and northern European countries in that respect. Last week e.g. the Dutch railways announced that from next year on, 100% of their operations will run on electric power from renewable sources, mainly wind, bought from a total of 5 north west European countries ( DE, DK, BE, NO, NL ).
Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
Does this mean that we will need to find some other means of energy rather than burning dead dinosaurs? God forbid.
While this may impact the future economic situation to some degree and CA, it is not like the oil had been extracted and then taken away. The money was never there, it was only the assumption of future money.
I would also point out that the vast majority CA residents are strongly opposed to shale extraction off the coast of CA.
First, I will say I have worked for a major oil company.
Second, I will say I have read "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons, was an ardent follower of The Oil Drum petroleum web site - was more active there than I am here.. That site was full of petroleum engineers and field guys - and I trusted their insight far more than I trust words from any investment advisor sitting behind desk whose job it is to influence my decisions of how to allocate my retirement savings.
And Third, I will say I swallowed the "Peak Oil" paradigm hook line and sinker. Apparently messed up my retirement savings big time by investing in the energy sector as I believed with all my heart that we were in serious decline.
Suddenly fracking made the scene and all the investment buyers saw energy as plentiful again. And the price dropped, And many of the smaller guys sold out.
I cannot help but wonder if all this panic talk is them yet rounding up another round of panicky people and investors to make a poor investment.
I can't help but remember all this talk about how dire our energy situation was coming from our leaders. Then there is no energy crisis, Then there is.
Almost sounds like Donovan singing about petroleum. First there is a crisis, then there is no crisis, then there is.
We pay countless taxes into our government, and countless well-paid bureaucrats are supposed to be leading us, but does anyone up there really know what's going on?
So far, they seem to rank about as reliable as an ouija board.
How in the hell can anyone make rational decisions when no-one seems to take this stuff seriously? It seems lately all our government has wanted to so is snoop. 96% is a helluva big number.
I believe special interest tie guys have the government release all these "facts" in order to manipulate the market.
When I saw fracking, I was and still am concerned that was equivalent to "blowing the gas cap" on a dying oil well as once we relieved the subterranean pressure that was helping to push what was left of the liquid oil to the surface, we were draining the last "fart" from the earth before there was no longer enough energy recoverable from the lift effort than we were able to recover from the oil lifted. It meant the show was over.
I remain very concerned this whole fracking "happy days are here again" thing has been nothing more than a ploy to get control of the remaining oil reserves at a bargain basement price.
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
It's because the majority of Americans don't really get taught proper English in school any more, and they pretty much ignore what teaching they do get. But they still get to pass classes and graduate, because it would hurt their feelings to do otherwise.
I used to work at an outfit where the majority of my co-workers were immigrants, as well as a large proportion of our customers. The worst at English spelling and grammar in both groups by far were the people born and raised in the U.S. I never really knew whether to laugh at that or be depressed by it.
LOL wut? You must live outside the US.
This announced change on estimated US (slash) California reserves will have little to no impact on the markets. It certainly might have an impact on the CA economy in the long term - but for the rest of us...not so much.
From TFA :
The reserves were downgraded by 96 percent, from 13.7 billion barrels estimated by a government-funded report in 2011, to just 600 million barrels, the EIA said.
Absolute values help put things into perspective.
Or do we need more perspective? For those who prefer the typical journalistic approach to understanding numbers, it's a reduction from 872'000 Olympic pools to just under 37'200 Olympic pools.
The point is moot. Libruls don't want even 1 drop of it removed from the ground..
FTFY
The potential ecological disasters created by such a massive shale extraction operation just ain't worth it. Monterey is surrounded by one of the most beautiful and ecologically diverse coastlines in the world, and they want to jeopardise it to get some short-term, supporting an industry wihich is basicallty like America's crack dealer, and every year seems to report record profits. Wat?
It's the 21st century and we're still having these sorts of conversations about oil? Christ almighty, find another source of energy already, or consider slgihtly changing your behavior. If for nothing else, do it for the children.
Some of the most beautiful coastline on earth stretches from Santa Cruz to San Luis Obispo County. The waters are a National Marine Sanctuary. The Monterey Peninsula, Carmel, Pebble Beach, Big Sur are some of the most appealing destinations in California. The Los Padres National Forest extends into miles and miles of virgin wilderness from Ventana through the Santa Lucia and Coastal Range. The collision of the Pacific and Continental plates creates solid granite mountains rising up out of the pounding surf. East of the spectacular coastline is Steinbeck Country - the Salinas Valley, the salad bowl of America some of the most prosperous farmland on planet earth. It finds its water from the Salinas River which is the longest underground river on earth, as spring water percolates up from the range.
The idea of fracking here just makes me wanna stop driving. I can't believe this project has been moving forward all of this time with FALSE DATA from the lying scumbag pigs that want money from resources no matter what the long term cost to the planet. This terrain is the result of tectonics for billions of years, and all some folks can appreciate is that the fault line makes it easier to dig, and the bay makes it easier to transport. In a thousand years there will be nothing worth remembering about this era except for the beauty that was spared from human destruction. Every one of us will be dead in a century, why is that momentary presence so arrogant as to exploit everything possible just because we can.
Life will go on without sucking the Monterey Shale out of the ground so that some people get rich selling old technology to the "free" market. Somehow, I'm sure they can just move along to some renewable energy to sell when the fast easy bucks dry up. Good thing we found out it is already dry here, before they poisoned the golden goose.
Maybe I'm confused, but there seem to be a couple of problems in the article, regarding distance and location. One paragraph says, "The problem lies with the geology of the Monterey Shale, a 1,750-mile formation running down the center of California roughly from Sacramento to the Los Angeles basin and including some coastal regions."
In the article's map, the northernmost formation point is south of San Francisco, way south of Sacramento. And even if the Monterey Shale went all the way up to Sacramento, it's still way less than 1,750 miles from Sacramento to LA.
Also, according to http://oilshalegas.com/montereyshale.html, Monterey Shale is just that one large section that's about 1/4 the length of California. Monterey Shale doesn't include the smaller costal regions.
I'm not trying to be critical, but if the article has mistakes regarding distance and location, I wonder if it might also have a mistake regarding volume of oil.
Perhaps this is a sign that the rumoured Shale bubble is beginning to burst.
Only to idiots, are orders laws.
-- Henning von Tresckow
Peak US oil production begat a rampant speculative market, which in turn sends our oil and gas prices soaring and crashing on a yearly basis. This is always quietly dismissed as seasonal demand so as to coddle speculators and assuage the fears of our politicians. Sustained high crude prices and a rapidly diminishing prospect of respectable foreign policy with regard to the oil market during the Bush administration led many oil and gas producers and their lobbyists to declare a diamond in the rough. This shale oil and gas to be captured through fractionation came at a time when to deem it suspect was nihilistic and we all tacitly agreed it must be true for sake of our own collective future. As our war machine contracted and our focus returned somewhat toward domestic policies and act of sustainability it of course became increasingly difficult to ignore what during the past 8 years was a boon of blank checks and exemptions from the federal government to be applied toward the shale moneytrain. Halliburton certainly wouldnt be the first to fess up, and nor should they as theyd worked hard to secure by hook and by crook some of the most lucrative and reprehensible federal exemptions and contracts in recent history. Shale is good, shale is great.
No. Like an alcoholic stumbling from a hot malt liquor hangover into the nearest gas station we scrambled to find anything to take the hurt away. That we like the rest of the world would have to firm up our collective constitutions and make seriously warranted changes was simply too much. We crawled back into shale oils warm cockle and clutched our crossover SUV for one more year. We looked to the tar sands and their beleaguered machination of destruction and waste as no more than a fine bourbon whiskey we partook of on occasion. Science, like a distant cousin with the bail money for the last bender, is shuffling us along into the rather unpleasant sunlight once again with heavy heart and a morose sigh. We either change or we die, because at this point Science will have existed as much with us as it has without us.
Good people go to bed earlier.
Wonder how much more of a tax break the oil companies will get because of this. My understanding is that they get a write-off as they deplete a reserve. It is sort of like a capital depreciation. I wonder if the reserve estimate will change that calculation resulting in larger tax breaks since they will have a depleted their asset at a faster rate than previously expected.
Where does this myth of slave labor pay in the oil industry come from? I live on the gulf coast in the middle of the U.S. petrochem region and the recent resurgence of U.S. oil exploration has lead to insane levels of job growth and prime pay for those lucky enough to work in the major petrochem plants. I was recently shocked by the reality of this at an extended family event at Easter, where I saw one of my wife's cousins, he is 23 years old, married with 2 young kids, and has a 2 year degree from local trade school and he makes over $100,000 per year doing shift work as an operator at one of the plants.
Dear Oil Company, I have a bunch of batteries. And sunshine. And a thing that makes a light bulb go on. Piss off .
The luddites think its icky and we can all just use windmills. Don't ask me how they think they'll ever get a jet off the ground using solar, but I don't think they've even thought that far into it.
This isn't about ludditism. This is about what year is it? We can fly the planes on biofuels, but we should replace all air within a nation with high-speed rail. Which we should fucking have already, because what year is it? We should be running our planes on biofuels already, because what year is it?
We've had solar panels since the 1970s and they could repay their energy investment in seven years back then. Now it's three. What year is it?
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
We can't even get a Concorde off the ground anymore.
The thought of Egyptian pyramids immediately come to the discerning thinker's mind: "awesome but impractical and expensive" seems to work on people in every millennium.
Ezekiel 23:20
By official estimates the Monterey Shale formation makes up 2/3 of the shale reserves in the US and by some estimates 1/3 of all crude reserves in the US
What about the Green River shale formation which is estimated to have 3 TRILLION barrels of oil? I don't get how that 13.7 billion barrels originally estimated in the Monterey formation comprised 2/3rds of the shale reserves, when we have a 3 TRILLION barrel reserve. By my count, it's around 1/3rd of 1 percent.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Exactly. This is in California? It's less likely to be recoverable than ANWAR, if only because the greenies would never let it be tapped because of NIMBY.
It is already being tapped. California produces more oil than any other state except Texas and North Dakota. It is even slightly ahead of Alaska. Here's the data.
Peak oil as Cost has been passed. A hard number as to how much pumped is irrelevant - demand must be factored in.
I'm not sure why people "favouring individual liberty, free trade, and moderate political and social reform" should have any such opinion.
That is not what "liberal" means in American English. In America, a liberal is what Europeans would call a progressive or a social democrat. What Europeans call a liberal, would be a libertarian in America. In Australian English, "liberal" means conservative.
Don't bother. Republicans live in a world in which no drilling occurs during a democratic administration. That's why we still hear how turrible Obummer is to the oil industry. How he's ruined that resource for the US even though we're producing more oil now than ever. We're now a net exporter of oil; but Obama ruined it. Can't squeeze a single drop of oil out of the ground with Obummer in office.
And the constant mentioning of ANWR by Republicans again shows how shortsighted they are. Republican, the part of security and homeland defense. They'll keep us safe, but they want to tap a moderate resource for oil and gas (mean estimate of 10.6 bbl) which won't effect the market in any noticeable way instead of preserving it as a strategic resource so when the shit hits the fan we have 10.6 bbl to ourselves. Right now every drop of that 10.6 bbl goes on the market for Indian and China. Republicans, just thinking about you.
Should have had a look at the production curves, tight, shale and fracked sources have very rapid decline. It's pretty much the definition of unsustainable.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node...
That is not what "liberal" means in American English. In America, a liberal is what Europeans would call a progressive or a social democrat.
While that is technically true, it's mostly just used as a curse word now for those conservatives who have no concept of compromise and do not understand the difference between opinion and fact. It's one of about a dozen words that mainly serve to make these stupid conservatives angry, a list that also includes words like "socialism" and "taxation." Sadly there are few words that actually make them happy, since that generally runs counter to the goal of conservative media with the obvious exception of schadenfreude. Their media go to great lengths to prolong anger and extract pleasure from the misfortune of those they call liberals. For example, they are still talking about the tragedy in Benghazi since, even though it obviously isn't working with swing voters, it keeps their base nice and angry and pliable.
Or, as Orwell called it, DuckSpeak. Why think about complex issues when you can slap around labels as fast as you can quack them?
Just get some Big Brother figure to chant the appropriate terms over the visi-screen or whatever.
It's easy to see why most individuals haven't done this - they haven't done the cost-benefit calculation themselves, there are large (relatively) one-time costs for installation, and so on. But what about industry? Why hasn't every large factory in Arizona put solar panels on their roof yet? Surely they have accountants and technical staff who are capable of accurately calculating the benefits and arranging for the installation. Either all these people are wrong (rather hard to believe), or solar panels have not actually yet reached the point of commercial viability.
That requires energy, which fossil fuels will be incapable of providing in the future no matter the cost.
We have enough existing coal reserves to produce the current US annual energy consumption for several hundred years, all by themselves.
Regardless of whether you like coal -- it does have its down side -- statements like "we're running out of energy" are simply false.
Oh yeah, Mr. Smarty Pants? Then when haven't you been able to answer the question of what year it is??? If you don't know, you should just not post a response.
Well, that sure answers why people don't want it on their roofs.
the road are in good working order. What freeways aren't being repaired?
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
Uhm. That sounds pretty good to me. :D Lots of nature, blameless lives, lots of frugality and recyling, good music, good drugs, plentiful weed, and loose women. Why are conservatives fighting us again? :D Heheheheheh
Peak Oil has been reached. That's WHY we're fracking, and why we're doing all that deep offshore drilling. Basically, all the easy to get stuff is gone man... it's all downhill from here.
/checks his progressive membership card.
I think you need to stop listening to YOUR side tell you what I'm for, and listen to ME tell you what I'm for.
I am not opposed to free markets. I am opposed to unregulated markets. Everyone needs to play fair. I support freedom of religion, despite being an Atheist. You can believe whatever stupid thing you want as long as you don't push it on me. Keep it in YOUR head, and in your house. Keep it out of mine. I own a gun. Yes, I support Unions, because the alternative is to tell people they can't form associations? No.... I don't support slavery. That's absurd. Actually, your whole post is absurd.... Never mind...
The names changed through history, and you know that. The "southern democrats" that you are referencing were folding into the Republican party a long time ago, and you know it. You're just doublespeaking.
There is a lot of coal, but apart from the coal industry, there is a universal sentiment that we don't want to continue mining or burning it. In fact, a significant number of coal plants are being closed in the US and replaced with gas, which is not nearly so plentiful. The price of natural gas is highly volatile, and we will see a steep increase along with demand. Prices may be low today, but once new export terminals are operational, it will pour out into the global market, and be rapidly depleted while local prices rise to match. An energy policy dependent upon continuing availability of low cost natural gas and perpetual renewable subsidies is extremely foolish.
Fossil fuels are finite and recovery is increasingly difficult and costly; to claim otherwise is absurd. Cheap oil and gas will not last, especially in the face of rapidly increasing global energy demand.
This is slashdot
kilo barrels
Mega barrels
Giga barrels
Tera barrels
Please!
; )
Uh, Linux geek since 1999.
Didn't John Holdren say something about needing to de-develop the US economy over the coming years? Luddites indeed.
Have a Day!
"Repeating an italicized catch phrase doesn't make a cohesive argument."
For Brutus is an honorable man.
It's not just the names that changed. And the NAME of the party of the North during the civil was was the Republican party. The relation of that party to the current Republican party is historical rather than ideological. Please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...
I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
Modern people would be surprised with what a huge Bronze-age slave system can build! Combining the elite of the non-slave stone masons and a vast quarrying slave caste can accomplish quite advanced buildings and infrastructure. Much of these buildings are far more resilient and permanent than what we currently build...we are still trying to replicate the "Roman cement" that lasts for thousands of years; just recently we realized it has something to do with the volcanic ash used in it, but their bridges will far outlast even our best steel bridges.