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Out of the Warehouse: Climate Researchers Rescue Long-Lost Satellite Images

sciencehabit (1205606) writes "Once stashed in warehouses in Maryland and North Carolina, images and video captured from orbit by some of NASA's first environmental satellites in the mid-1960s are now yielding a trove of scientific data. The Nimbus satellites, originally intended to monitor Earth's clouds in visible and infrared wavelengths, also would have captured images of sea ice, researchers at the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center realized when they heard about the long-lost film canisters in 2009. After acquiring the film—and then tracking down the proper equipment to read and digitize its 16-shades-of-gray images, which had been taken once every 90 seconds or so—the team set about scanning and then stitching the images together using sophisticated software. So far, more than 250,000 images have been made public, including the first image taken by Nimbus-1 on 31 August 1964, of an area near the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Besides yielding a wealth of sea ice data, the data recovery project, which will end early next year, could also be used to extend satellite records of deforestation and sea surface temperatures."

136 comments

  1. warehouse by rossdee · · Score: 5, Funny

    is this from Warehouse 13?

    1. Re:warehouse by NoNonAlphaCharsHere · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah. They used a look-into-the-future technology to determine that data collected and stored in the 60s might contradict your political paranoia 50 years later. It's the same tech they used to print Obama's birth announcement in Hawaiian newspapers because (again) they knew that one day a Kenyan would try to get elected to the White House.

    2. Re:warehouse by Sique · · Score: 1

      No, as usual, things with no immediate use but too hardly earned to get thrown away get stashed until the time comes. And then forgotten. There is no cabal here. Guys can hope, but to hope natural laws change at will just to support the own ideology has the ring of futility to it.

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*
    3. Re:warehouse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Guys can hope, but to hope natural laws change at will just to support the own ideology has the ring of futility to it.

      Typical anti-democratic left-wing BS ... We are going to get the numbers and vote to repeal the 2nd law of thermodynamics ... you just watch us!

  2. Straight to the pointless debate by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2

    I read this article earlier.
    Here's the things people are going to fixate on, without having near enough data actually genuinely analyze them.

    The article states that Antarctic Ice was way larger in are in 1964 than it is today(or was in 1972, the until-now earliest satellite data date)
    And the deniers are going to fixate on the fact that there were holes in the ice.

    And since there's not a lick of expert analysis vis-a-vis the implications for climate change involved there, I can't bring myself to care, what some people on slashdot are going to conclude without the numbers.

    1. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by TemporalBeing · · Score: 0, Redundant

      I read this article earlier. Here's the things people are going to fixate on, without having near enough data actually genuinely analyze them.

      The article states that Antarctic Ice was way larger in are in 1964 than it is today(or was in 1972, the until-now earliest satellite data date) And the deniers are going to fixate on the fact that there were holes in the ice.

      And since there's not a lick of expert analysis vis-a-vis the implications for climate change involved there, I can't bring myself to care, what some people on slashdot are going to conclude without the numbers.

      Not to mention that if it doesn't go for how the AGW claimers want, then they'll just say the sensors were not accurate enough and write it off with the other side will point to the data as showing no AGW issues.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
    2. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Penguinisto · · Score: 1

      If you can't bring yourself to care, why did you post?

      That aside, it's good that it was recovered, though it is, to be fair, still a snapshot in time. Now if they had something over multiple years from that period, we could get a better picture.

      Nota Bene: "way larger" isn't exactly precise, especially given any competent chart on sea ice coverage over periods as small as a couple of decades. We've seen sea ice grow like crazy over the past two years, after all. ;)

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    3. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by lgw · · Score: 1, Troll

      Well, as a skeptic, here's what bothers me:

      The ground station temperature data has been quite thoroughly manipulated, always "adjusted" in the direction of confirming the theories of the researcher making the adjustment, Pardon my skepticism about that data.

      The satellite data, however, has no such shadow over it. It's good, solid data - the sort of thing one expects in science. But now there's this new satellite data that must be "processed" to be understood. If it's just photographic evidence like ice coverage, then great - image processing techniques are commonly understood, and no one's going to be photoshopping in extra ice to create a fake trend. But if there's infrared data that researchers must "adjust", and then extend temperature graphs of "satellite data" backwards, then I'll be annoyed that the data source I trust has been mixed with adjusted data.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    4. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Not likely since AGW is based on science, and scientific method. Where as deniers are just a bunch of dolts with no science behind them. Ask yourself this: How come AGW deniers never talk about the actual science?
      They make post like you do: No evidence, no data, every scientist, every agency, every competing country are all in some conspiracy and only the enlightened few* can see 'The Truth!'

      *get over yourself already

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    5. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      This isn't just flamebait. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

    6. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by hsthompson69 · · Score: 0

      Read the article:

      " September 1964 covered about 19.7 million square kilometers—an area slightly larger than the United States and Canada together, and larger than that seen in satellite data from any year between 1972 and 2012."

      Today is 2014, and antarctic ice (as shown by their photo), looks nearly *identical* to 2014, even after 50 years.

      Do you deny that 2013 and 2014 exist, and that arctic ice has increased to the point that matches their observations in 1964?

      Do you also deny that in 1966, there was a record low in ice extent?

      "Similar data from another Nimbus satellite reveal a record low coverage of sea ice just 2 years later, the team notes."

      Are you willing to take back your poorly backed argument now?

    7. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Aren't adjustments, done with scientific reasoning, just a form of processing?

    8. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by ledow · · Score: 2

      And until someone works out what we're supposed to do about it, we can all sit around and argue about whether or not we caused it. Like a bunch of people in a traffic accident swearing and shouting at each other and not one bothering to use the brakes. Sure, knowing it's us must lead us to find out why it's us, which might lead us to find out how we stop doing whatever-it-is.

      Fact is, in EVERY discussion, every news story, every article, every paper I see, there's endless blame, "confirmation", etc. and yet not one bright idea about what to do about it.

      Let's make it easy. I will happily take the assumption that we're somehow doing this. I'll even assume that how we THINK we're doing this is exactly how it's happening (that's not a given, by a long shot). And I'll assume that the catastrophic predictions are all correct.

      Just quite what the fuck are we actually doing about it? What can we do about it? Does stopping doing those things actually hurt us more in the long run than the most dire of consequences otherwise (seriously, if we have to knock energy production down even a single order of magnitude, life changes forever for everyone on the planet)? What if all we can do is slow the change and not stop it? Is it then really worth all the huge, massive, political posturing, scientific research, bitching and arguing if all we can do is, say, buy ourselves an extra 10 years at ENORMOUS cost to our way of life?

      Honestly, what kind of measures are we suggesting? How do we get international co-operation on those measures? What if we DON'T get international co-operation on those measures? How does that impact the average person, the average industry, the average production cycle? Are we going to have to abandon modern life and just-those-inventions that might save us (e.g. producing new large-scale energy projects) in order to survive at all?

      I'm happy, as someone of a scientific mind, to entertain any amount of what-if's. But the ones that are never addressed boil down to "What if we're right?" And, to be honest, the answers I find from that are either scarier or more lacking than anything the doomsayers might chime in with about sea level rises, etc.

      Whether or not I believe the evidence, the way it's handled, or the final conclusion, I still am interested in the suggested outcome. Because, in the AGW debate more than any, it seems to be a lot of political posturing to get someone to agree - to what? A complete absence of solutions. As such, I don't see the "profit" (intellectual or otherwise) in someone choosing any particular path beyond their own beliefs and this, more than anything, makes me question quite what we're hoping to get out of "winning" the argument.

      Seriously. An utterly serious question. If we are right, what do we do, and how does that affect us? Because I believe (i.e. zero evidence) that, actually, the cure might be worse than the disease if it's this poorly researched and nobody's really got anything viable. If we can't point at something at say "If we spent more money on that, or researched this, or got those people to co-operate, it would solve the problem" then what - besides arguing about the cause - is ever going to change about the situation?

    9. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      The ground station temperature data has been quite thoroughly manipulated, always "adjusted" in the direction of confirming the theories of the researcher making the adjustment

      What would you expect to happen if there are correctable errors in the data and the theories are correct?

      But now there's this new satellite data that must be "processed" to be understood.

      The raw data should be open and verifiable against the original film so that anyone can double check the data and the conclusions. But somehow I don't think even that will be enough to convince the skeptics that the conclusions are correct.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    10. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by rubycodez · · Score: 0, Troll

      Some of the sensationalist claims made by IPCC and ilk not scientific at all, and they've backpedaled on some of them in latest climate report

    11. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Rockoon · · Score: 0

      Aren't adjustments, done with scientific reasoning, just a form of processing?

      I dont know about the satellite data, but in the case of the surface record, there can be no scientific reason to adjust temperature measurements. Such measurements are the core of the science .. things are measured and the values are what they are. It is never scientific to process past measurements and then call them "corrected" (which is what the climate folks are doing with the surface record.)

      I also dont know if all of these "corrections" are biased one way or the other, but surely if these "corrections" do not follow a normal distribution then that sheds a very ugly light on the whole process of "correction."

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    12. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Give one example of a 'backpedal'.

    13. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Aren't adjustments, done with scientific reasoning, just a form of processing?

      GP referred to image processing. An example would be a filter that improved contrast or made edges more visible. These are well-understood and repeatable. Also, nobody is talking about hiding the raw data, so you would be free to grab the raw data and try processing it yourself.

      The temperature data records have been adjusted by government agencies (NOAA, NASA, GISS) and the adjustments seem to just be "fudge factors"; someone just changed the numbers. The changes might be justifiable, but (a) the changes were done very quietly, and (b) the changes mostly go the same way: the past always gets cooler and the recent decades always get warmer.

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/18/hansens-nasa-giss-cooling-the-past-warming-the-present/

    14. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 0

      What bothers me is: are these the same climate researchers who constantly sensationalize the magnitude and effects of climate change, and then come out and tell us they were lying because they didn't think we'd handle the truth being 10 times worse, and then "leak" sensationalized committee conclusions about how climate change has caused "irreversible damage" and "cannot be stopped" and tell us that they didn't mean for us to see that?

      I won't be surprised when they leak that our climate change is threatening tourism for extra-terrestrials, who have threatened to annihilate human life if we don't correct it, and then come out and say, "That wasn't supposed to come out in public! We didn't want to say it's aliens, but... it's aliens."

      The entire community of climate change science is filled with liars and bullshit who keep getting caught being liars spouting bullshit. I saw a report recently showing miles of Maryland coastal roads under 4 inches of water, claiming rising sea levels have started to draw the ocean inland and shrunk the coastline 20 miles back already, forcing people to abandon their homes and move to higher ground. Not "2 feet in the next century," not "Tropical Storm damage," no. They said the ice caps have already melted enough to put part of the state underwater, and that Maryland will be gone in 10 years.

      So when some scientists pull something they magically found in a warehouse somewhere out of their ass, it bothers me.

    15. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by lgw · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What would you expect to happen if there are correctable errors in the data and the theories are correct?

      What would you expect to happen if there are correctable errors and the theories are false, but the researcher was dodgy? Same result.

      Data that doesn't allow you to distinguish these cases isn't scientific. That's the difference between "evidence" and "pleasing story", after all. Reproducibility is everything: the scientific method is built on the foundation that a skeptical opponent of your research can repeat your experiment (or measurement) and be forced to come around. If you're "adjusting" your data, the methodology you use is very much part of this process. The raw data should be presented, the method of adjustment should be presented, and the rationale for the method should itself stand against skepticism. (E.g., if a ground station went from rural to urban over time, others can compare similar situations and see if your adjustment was appropriate).

      But if the raw data is destroyed? Well, pardon my skepticism.

      (And if you think scientific researchers are perfect angels, not humans vulnerable to bias or outright cheating, take a look at the reproducibility of biochem synthesis journals some time. Eesh.)

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    16. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What would you expect to happen if there are correctable errors and the theories are false, but all the researcher s were dodgy? Same result.

      FTFY

    17. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by radtea · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I dont know about the satellite data, but in the case of the surface record, there can be no scientific reason to adjust temperature measurements. Such measurements are the core of the science .. things are measured and the values are what they are. It is never scientific to process past measurements and then call them "corrected" (which is what the climate folks are doing with the surface record.)

      That statement is false.

      Science is the discipline of publicly testing ideas by systematic observation, controlled experiment, and Bayesian inference.

      There are many reasons why one might get the idea that past temperature records have systematic inaccuracies that may require correction. The urban heat island effect is one large one, which tends to produce higher uncorrected temperatures over time. The phenomenon is simple in principle: cities generate heat, have more dark surfaces, and trap heat in buildings etc which gets re-radiated at night. Weather stations sited near cities have typically become increasingly surrounded by them over the past century, because cities have grown.

      Ergo, the instrumental temperature record from many stations needs to be corrected downward to account for this effect, if we want to pull out the environmental temperature (what we are generally interested in.)

      This is what we do all the time in science. We start with a raw instrumental measurement and then apply various theory-dependent corrections to infer the underlying quantity we are actually interested in. For example, at the LHC, physicists measure the raw detection rates of various particles in multiple detectors, and then correct them for known background rates etc (frequently using ancillary measurements in the same detectors to determine those rates) to infer the presence (or absence) of the Higgs boson.

      What you are saying is "never scientific" is in fact the core of the scientific process, and it makes no difference if the original data were taken today or fifty years ago: they are open to justifiable correction by anyone who sees fit. If you have the idea that the corrections applied are unjustified, feel free to challenge them, but please don't go promoting your fallacious vision of what science is and how it works.

      And by the way, if you are interested in what an analysis of the uncorrected instrumental temperature record looks like at one particular station, here is an example: http://www.tjradcliffe.com/?p=...

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    18. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by cheater512 · · Score: 0

      You don't 'correct' the data. The data that was collected is completely accurate in the context of being close to a city.
      Accurate data + apply correction != accurate data.

    19. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you deny that 2013 and 2014 exist, and that arctic ice has increased to the point that matches their observations in 1964?

      According to the source (http://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2014/nimbus.html) the arctic ice extent was larger in the 1960's: In the Arctic, sea ice extent was larger in the 1960s than it is these days, on average. “It was colder, so we expected that...

      The Antarctic ice extent is largely unchanged from the pictures in 1964. This is in line with the modern data that shows relatively steady Antarctic ice extent/area even while volume continues to shrink

    20. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by blue9steel · · Score: 2

      That doesn't make any sense. Of course you correct the data, however you also publish the uncorrected data and the correction method you used so that others can verify your work.

    21. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by dak664 · · Score: 1

      NASA did destroy a large amount of imagery in the 1980s, despite a public outcry I certainly contributed to. The official line was that no one knew how to read the warehouses full of 7 track tapes to for conversion to CD (the 2400 foot tape could store 5 to 140 MB depending on density). The obvious reason was no one wanted to spend the money to replace all the classified pixels with innocuous ones. And so mankind lost a large amount of wealth.

    22. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Garfong · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Or another way of thinking of it is you're using the measured data to estimate a hidden variable which is what you're really interested in. E.g. in this case you have a number of measurements near cities, and you're trying to estimate the global/wide-area average temperature. So you apply a correction to get from city temperature to an estimate of the wide-area average temperature.

      (This is mostly in response to GP).

    23. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      Science is the discipline of publicly testing ideas by systematic observation, controlled experiment, and Bayesian inference.

      Changing the data that you observed decades after you observed it is not "systematic observation."

      It is "doing stuff so that the systematic observations arent used"

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    24. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by MightyYar · · Score: 2
      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    25. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by MightyYar · · Score: 2

      If you are measuring sea level from the same spot every year, and then later you find out that the spot you are on has been rising slowly over the years, you would be perfectly scientific in trying to account for the rise when using the now known-to-be-flawed data. The important thing is that you be open about what you did with the raw numbers so that others can see what you did.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    26. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      IPCC AR5 WG1 dismisses the models outright as running "too hot" and replaces the data with "expert opinions".

      You haven't read it - have you?

    27. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by jfengel · · Score: 1

      I believe it's the other way around: we're prevented from talking about changes because we're too stuck on the large number of people who insist that the answer is "do nothing because nothing is happening/it's not our fault/it'll all be OK," based on information that is usually outright wrong.

      The short answer to "what do we do?" is "cut back on CO2 emissions". How we do that is a genuinely good question, since it breaks down into questions like "Who will cut, and how much? What will they do instead? How will we enforce it? Is it fair for some to cut more than others? Can a market-based solution help, or do we need something more extreme? Can we help developing countries that really need cheap energy to continue advancing?" The answers are complex, and hampered by the fact that this is an international problem rather than a local one.

      There are things that can be done on a national level, especially in western countries, which have far higher per-capita CO2 production than elsewhere. We can encourage more fuel-efficient transportation and more carbon-efficient fuels. We can spend money on research for energy production which can't compete with fossil fuels today and won't turn a profit this quarter or the next. We can find ways to "price in" carbon emissions, to encourage people to shift towards more climate-friendly alternatives. And you can find ways to create carbon tariffs, so that we don't merely export carbon-producing activities to countries with smaller per-capita economies (and thus smaller per-capita CO2 production, even though they're selling off the results of that CO2 production to other countries).

      These aren't easy, but they have been discussed, widely. The problem is that the discussions are utterly moot when the United States is unwilling to even consider them. It has the highest per-capita CO2 production (outside of a few oil producers and a couple of tiny countries that don't contribute much overall). (source)

      There's a lot more discussion to have. But until we get past the sheer denialism, which is based on outright lies and paranoia, there's no hope of having it.

    28. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 0

      Once again you don't talk about AGW science facts, only you misunderstanding of a high quality science report.

      BTW AGW and Climate change are different things. If you can not understand even that basic fact, then you have no hope of understanding the basic facts of AGW.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    29. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 2

      No we have not seen 'ice grow like crazy'. Not at all.
      We have seen some more snow fall in some area, but the overall loss dwarfs that new snow fall.

      Stop thinking surface, and start think mass.
      Antarctica and Greenland are losing 450 billion tons of ice every year

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    30. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by hsthompson69 · · Score: 1

      Good catch, I like their visualization tool here: http://extranet.nsidc.org/Nimb...

      Unfortunately, I couldn't find any similar visualization for the arctic.

      I think the take away from their work shows just how much natural variability there was, even during a regime of significantly less CO2:

      “And the Antarctic blew us away,” he said. In 1964, sea ice extent in the Antarctic was the largest ever recorded, according to Nimbus image analysis. Two years later, there was a record low for sea ice in the Antarctic, and in 1969 Nimbus imagery, sea ice appears to have reached its maximum extent earliest on record."

      1964 high -> 1966 low -> 2014 above average

      Since we have no 60s data regarding volume, I suppose that's an open question, but for antarctic extent to grow from 1966-2014 in the face of ever increasing CO2, points to some significant natural variability that overwhelms whatever influence CO2 might have.

    31. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 2

      You are not a skeptic. Skeptics use critical thinking skills. You are a denier who thinks they are skeptical.

      "The ground station temperature data has been quite thoroughly manipulated, always "adjusted" in the direction of confirming the theories of the researcher making the adjustment, Pardon my skepticism about that data."
      False.

      " But now there's this new satellite data that must be "processed" to be understood."
      Like ALL satellite data.

      You really don't know what you are talking about. Why don't you turn your so called skepticism on those very claims?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    32. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      You mean where they say "Observed changes in global mean surface air temperature since 1950 (from three major databases, as anomalies relative to 1961–1990) are shown in Figure 1.4. As in the prior assessments, global climate models generally simulate global temperatures that compare well with
      observations over climate timescales (Section 9.4). Even though the projections from the models were never intended to be predictions over such a short timescale, the observations through 2012 generally fall within the projections made in all past assessments. The 1990–2012 data have been shown to be consistent with the FAR projections (IPCC, 1990), and not consistent with zero trend from 1990, even inthe presence of substantial natural variability (Frame and Stone, 2013)."

      Is that where they dismiss the models outright? Perhaps *you* should read it.

      Your claim does not stand up to scrutiny.

    33. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm a little curious, so you think the aggregate of all climate data collected since the start of collection should all be stored indefinitely so it can be reverified? Do you have any idea how much data that is? Personally I think that would be great to have that level of retention. The problem is I don't think it was possible in the 80's, 90's or even 2000's. Only now is storage even starting to get cheap enough for this. 100TB in the 90s was pretty much unheard of, now I have 160TB in a 4U enclosure which cost something like 20k just for the hardware.

    34. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 1

      What correct means in this case is 'control for known variables.'

      As an example. Suppose you have a thermometer above a surface that will make the thermometer read 2 degrees warmer.
      You control the variable(correct). and subtract 2 degree for the appropriate times.

      That is just a simple example i an ideal world with no other factors. Don't take it to e anything more than that.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    35. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      they are deniers, not skeptics. Skeptics apply critical thinking and make an effort to understand the science.
      Deniers don't do either.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    36. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Here is the thing.
      Every time series discussion starts to happen, certain politician derail, misdirect, or blatantly stop the discussion.
      It doesn't fit their constituent theology and/or ideology.

      Since disease means the world will become too polluted and warm for human civilization, most main stream 'cures' won't be worse.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    37. Re: Straight to the pointless debate by caveqat101 · · Score: 2

      What part of conspiracy theory don't you get? Government classifies items,like pictures ,paper and other erratta on a daily basis, and ships it to warehouses, called NARA. There you have a chance to see it if its of the right item requested. Some one forgot to destroy this before it was found. Conspricy theory just say ooo! Mr. Carter, look what I found. Sometimes its right on the mark.

    38. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by cheater512 · · Score: 1

      But the temperature isn't 2 degrees cooler, it is exactly what the thermometer measured.

      Yes cities are heat islands. But a heat island isn't a magical thing that makes thermometers read higher than reality.
      You can't 'correct' the accurate measurement. It was that temperature at that location.

    39. Re: Straight to the pointless debate by caveqat101 · · Score: 1

      So I can get the climate data fo9r St. Louis,by getting the data from New York and Los Angeles?

    40. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      ...I have 160TB in a 4U enclosure which cost something like 20k just for the hardware.

      That's $125 per terabyte. Here is 4.7TB for $19.45, which is $4.14 per terabyte.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    41. Re: Straight to the pointless debate by caveqat101 · · Score: 0

      So how does taxing Americans to stop clean power, while sponsoring third world development of dirty power ameliate this?

    42. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Ichijo · · Score: 1

      Oops, that's 0.47 TB for $19.45, which is $41.38 per terabyte.

      Here is 1.25 TB for $22.95, which is $18.36 per terabyte. You won't be able to fit 160 TB of that in a 4U enclosure, but maybe in a filing cabinet.

      --
      Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
    43. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      that a skeptical opponent of your research can repeat your experiment (or measurement) and be forced to come around.

      Please, you can't even convince slashdot that the real 0.9... (with 9 being repeated infinitely) is equal to the real 1. And that is a mathematically verifiable truth. Even going back to the construction of reals from Peano axioms isn't going to convince them.

    44. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Everyone here on /. shouting: I want to see the raw data, never would look at it if he had a link.
      How useful are billions of lines of text to a random /. poster that look like:

      time latitude longitude hight temp air-pressure humidity wind-speed wind-direction
      20140903230000 52N13'04" 05W07'11" 435m 13C 1011mb 45% 11kn 223degrees

      ???
      I arrogantly proclaim no one here who ever shouted for 'raw' data ever looked at raw data or on top of that has the simplest clue what to do at all with such raw data.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    45. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      No it is cooler.
      How dumb are you?
      I have a thermometer which is supposed to measure air temperature. But it measures the radiation of a nearby black rock. During 10:00 till 19:00 this causes a roughly +2 degrees increase on the measurement, so I subtract that.
      If I had realized during the time of the measurement I had placed the thermometer elsewhere ... however I realize this years later, so I have to correct the data.
      It was that temperature at that location.
      No it was not. It was a number showing up on a device where you obviously lack the skills to interpret.
      Exercise: I was sailing last week. Friday on the trip home. The magnetic compass showed a course of 24degrees, my speedometer showed 6.5 to 7.5 (topping at 8) knots speed.
      GPS showed a course of 10degrees, a speed around 12 knots topping at 14.4.
      What happened? How do you 'fix' the 'measurement' into 'correct data'?
      If you have no clue how to interpret the numbers on your measuring instruments you can as well not measure at all.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    46. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      2014 is not above average, how do you come to that strange idea?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    47. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What you are saying is "never scientific" is in fact the core of the scientific process, and it makes no difference if the original data were taken today or fifty years ago: they are open to justifiable correction by anyone who sees fit. If you have the idea that the corrections applied are unjustified, feel free to challenge them

      I agree with you on the principle. But here's the thing: when you go to the GISS data download, there isn't a link to the uncorrected data; you just get one data set and you must trust that the GISS did the "adjustments" properly. That is not science.

      How do we even know that the GISS has adjusted the data? Because someone saved a copy of the data back in 2008. If nobody had a saved copy we wouldn't have any idea whether the changes had been made or how large they were. You comfortable with that?

      What I want to see is the original data set, plus a program (MATLAB script or whatever) to apply the adjustments, along with the final output. Anyone should be able to reproduce the final data set from the historical data, and anyone should be able to review the adjustments program to see what it does.

      I remind you also of "Climategate" and the CRU. Those guys had an endlessly tweaked data set, and when asked for the original, unmodified, historical data they said they had lost it. For any scientist that is a pretty major WTF right there but the only people who called them on it were the reviled "denialists".

    48. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by cheater512 · · Score: 1

      Depends if you are navigating by magnetic north or true north.
      If you were using magnetic bearings with your GPS then you will be just as lost as relying on the compass with GPS bearings.

      If some dope seriously compromised the thermometer's accuracy, say buy putting it near a radiative surface, then accuracy is lost and you have to throw the data out.
      You can't average out the error and just subtract it from all the numbers. The data is useless - you cannot repair inaccurate data.

      But they aren't 'correcting' for a simple cases like what you gave anyway. They are correcting whole areas not individual thermometers.

    49. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by turp182 · · Score: 1

      Why would one correct for the heat island effect? It is in fact the truth; the climate in cities can be quite different from the suburban areas (same with weather, if the heat island is dry it ends up diminishing or even killing off a lot of rainfall, or it can feed a system if the ground is saturated and it's hot, adding a lot of additional humidity in a localized area).

      The heat island is a true localized climate (sometimes temps are over 10F lower only 10 miles from the city of St. Louis), like some desert/tropical forest areas in the Galapagos Islands where the environment transforms after a couple of minutes of elevation change when driving (on the main island, the name escapes me).

      I would seem to me that you shouldn't adjust any individual values, and that the average for a larger region should be the basis for science.

      I would agree that adjustments would be needed if you know that the data is inaccurate to begin with. Determining why the data isn't accurate and how to adjust is the devil in the details. And great fodder for deniers.

      For the record I believe in man-caused climate change on a global scale. We're dumping considerable amounts of CO2 stored for millions of years back into the environment (which can and is leading to larger methane releases that only exacerbate the problem). Coral is dying, we are destroying ocean ecosystems via over fishing; but at least we realize and recognize these things now. The 1960s/70s were bonanzas of "because we can" with little or no consideration of systemic effects (especially with regards to food, "let's put these chemicals in the food, it will be better"). We're better on that front, except for India and China (and Africa), or half the population of the Earth.

      --
      BlameBillCosby.com
    50. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      The satellite data, however, has no such shadow over it. It's good, solid data ...

      You don't think satellite data is highly processed? Satellites can't measure atmospheric temperature directly at all. What they measure is microwave emissions from atmospheric gases (mostly O2 I think) as a proxy for temperature. Then taking into account the orbit (and possible decay of orbit), time of day and other factors they calculate a temperature for a rather nebulous area of the atmosphere (not the surface temperature). The good solid data we get from the satellites is a measure of microwave emissions, the rest is derived from that.

    51. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      no one here who ever shouted for 'raw' data ever looked at raw data

      Wrong. This is why your opinion doesnt matter. Its based on nothing and because its based on nothing, you are more likely to be wrong than right. In this case, you are wrong. 100% wrong.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    52. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by nadaou · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I happen to live near one of the main weather stations which was caught up in that FOX News brouhaha and happen to know about the local history. tl;dr as usual, the whole story was all a load of vaporous bullshit. And apparently it worked since you took the bait.

      One hundred years ago the local weather station was established outside the harbor master's office down by the docks (and the water). The city grew up and forty years ago or so the weather station was moved 500 feet up a hill to outside the local observatory, which is surrounded by forest.

      Moving a temperature sensor away from a large body of water, out of a "heat island" of now-paved urban roads, out of a canyon of concrete and glass buildings, and to a higher elevation will all change the readings of the sensor. If you want to keep a continuous record before and after moving, before and after various construction projects and re-roofing nearby, and before and after population changes, you're going to have to figure out and apply a correction factor for each of these things.

      There is nothing particularly unusual about our local weather station's story which hasn't been repeated in most cities around the world. So it is not surprising that noisy long term time series need to be cleaned up before being fed into sensitive predictive models. It would be dishonest not to if you know there was a change in the sampling history which required it.

      --
      ~.~
      I'm a peripheral visionary.
    53. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      What about corrections for changes in the instrument doing the measuring or corrections for changes in the time of day of the measurement? The UHI correction is just correcting for a known bias in the measurement.

    54. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by lgw · · Score: 1

      Sure, but it's processed in an objective way much like most measurements in science: with a known error bar with normal distribution, by methods grounded in the underlying physics that have themselves undergone peer review, and that aren't being "adjusted" after the fact to fit theory.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    55. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The uncorrected data would tend to overestimate the warming trend. Is that what you want us to do?

    56. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by tjstork · · Score: 2

      There is nothing particularly unusual about our local weather station's story which hasn't been repeated in most cities around the world. So it is not surprising that noisy long term time series need to be cleaned up before being fed into sensitive predictive models. It would be dishonest not to if you know there was a change in the sampling history which required it.

      But at that point, aren't you really basically just making it up? Granted, even satellite temperature sensors drift, but it seems that the real long term answer here is to just accept that the historical data is going back in time, and we're really just "guessing" at previous climate, as we simply didn't have the foresight to measure it correctly for the way we want to use it.

      --
      This is my sig.
    57. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      I'm sorry but you're going to have to prove that surface temperature measurements a "being adjusted after the fact to fit theory". A lot of people assert that but they never bother to seek out the scientific explanations for those adjustments. Here is a blog post about the reasons and methods for adjustments to the surface temperature record with cites to relevant peer reviewed papers about it. If you want to claim the adjustments to surface temperature records are invalid that is the information you need to refute.

    58. Re: Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where have I heard that argument before about guessing with regards to the past? Oh yeah, it was idiots like Ken Ham and his ilk. If I know a station was moved, why couldn't I look at the temp differences between locations to infer readings.

    59. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where does it say they "lost" it?

      We are not in a position to supply data for a particular country not covered by the example agreements referred to earlier, as we have never had sufficient resources to keep track of the exact source of each individual monthly value. Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data.

      How much data do you have dating back to the 80's? Any multi-terabyte data sets?

    60. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      That's a rock solid backup strategy. Good luck.

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    61. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Stuarticus · · Score: 1

      We can't possibly risk doing anything about this threat to humanity as it may slightly interfere with the generation of the imaginary tokens we use as a medium of exchange.

      --
      If you think someone isn't free to have a different definition of "freedom" you may be a tyrant.
    62. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://www.climate4you.com/ima...

      Global sea ice is above average

      Antarctic sea ice is well above average

      Arctic sea ice is slightly below average

    63. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by ai4px · · Score: 1

      KInda like a "fudge factor"????

    64. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by TemporalBeing · · Score: 1

      Not likely since AGW is based on science, and scientific method. Where as deniers are just a bunch of dolts with no science behind them. Ask yourself this: How come AGW deniers never talk about the actual science? They make post like you do: No evidence, no data, every scientist, every agency, every competing country are all in some conspiracy and only the enlightened few* can see 'The Truth!'

      *get over yourself already

      FYI - there are temperature sensor records going back to the early 1900's. However, they discount a good chunk of them saying that the sensors were not accurate or reliable, etc. All I'm saying, is that if the data does't align to their beliefs then they very well may say the same thing here - that the satellite's sensors used to capture the data were not accurate enough to use for the purpose of climate science, etc; and therefore toss out the data.

      It's not like they haven't done the before.

      On the versus, look for the other side to go the other way.

      It's politics and if you don't think that doesn't play a role in science (however altruistic, benign, or nefarious that role may be) then I've got a bridge to sell you.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
    65. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by tbannist · · Score: 1

      The ground station temperature data has been quite thoroughly manipulated, always "adjusted" in the direction of confirming the theories of the researcher making the adjustment, Pardon my skepticism about that data.

      Strangely enough BEST (partially funded by the Koch brothers) actually found that was not true. They actually found some the adjustments were over-correcting for warm bias and actually reducing the actual warming trend by a small amount. Unsurprisingly, adjustments are made to correct both unusual up and unusual down spikes in the temperature records which are often caused by changes in staffing, location, and methodology at temperature stations.

      The satellite data, however, has no such shadow over it. It's good, solid data - the sort of thing one expects in science.

      I don't think you actually know what you're talking about.

      ... then I'll be annoyed that the data source I trust has been mixed with adjusted data.

      Too late, the satellite data has to be adjusted to be usable in the first place and UAH, for example, has been through 10 rounds of adjustments to correct various errors.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    66. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by tbannist · · Score: 1

      If some dope seriously compromised the thermometer's accuracy, say buy putting it near a radiative surface, then accuracy is lost and you have to throw the data out. You can't average out the error and just subtract it from all the numbers. The data is useless - you cannot repair inaccurate data.

      Where you're talking about measurements, there's a difference between accuracy and bias. An accurate instrument with a known bias can still be useful.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    67. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      So YOU looked at the raw data, or how do you conclude I'm wrong?
      And, if so, what did it help you? And if so, why do you never post links with raw data, when people demand for it?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    68. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Don't know what you mean with 'magnetic bearing with GPS' GPS figures the course by tracking your position and using the last two positions (or a set of positions) to calculate your bearing. Nothing magnetic in it.

      The rest of your post is simply wrong. As sailor I have to work with un precise measurements all the time. If would throw away the data I had nothing :)

      Regarding the temperature measurement you only need to put a 'true' measuring thermometer besides the old on after you have enough measure points, you simply can correct the 'wrong' data, no reason to throw it away. But well, we all know: hundred scientists do it all wrong, but a random /. poster knows how too do it right :)

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    69. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So this chart is showing that the temperature has gone up 1 degree in the last 100 years? Wow sound the alarms.

    70. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by iMactheKnife · · Score: 1

      I've never used a marine GPS that could not correct for magnetic variation and display the magnetic course. If you have one that can only display true north, it is an el cheapo.

      Your compass probably needs to be swung.

      With all those errors, you probably shouldn't be going 14.4 knots. Or, if you are, I should be aboard to calibrate your instruments correctly. I'm a USCG Master with thousands of hours of blue water sailing and race experience.

      Respondent who says you must publish your raw data and the methods you use to smooth or adjust that data is correct. You need to give others
        scientists the full facts to reproduce your experiment or it goes into the Journal of Unreproducible Results.

    71. Re:Straight to the pointless debate by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Why should a GPS system correct for magnetic variations is beyond me. It does not use magnetism. It uses GPS satelites. You likely don't mean GPS but a course/chart plotter (which also uses GPS but might have the magnetic instruments you mention - I did not dig into that so far, no idea, never had the impression it had that), I talked about a hand GPS.

      No the compass was fine. I was sailing close to La Hague with a tital current of 8.5 knots.

      The magnetic compass had ofc problems (boat was chartered) but the point basically is: the magnet compass more or less (ignoring true north etc.) shows where the bow of my boat is aiming at. Which is for various reasons not the way the boat is actually moving at. But I guess if you know about maritime GPS you know enough about this topic.

      My point basically was that our parent seems to believe that 'measurements' like this are so wrong that they are useless.

      I find it quite handy to make a rough calculation in my head how long it takes me to the harbour based on speed on the map (GPS) as opposed to speed through water.

      Actually (perhaps obviously) we aimed to reach that strong current at the proper time to use it for our travel.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  3. using sophisticated software by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 1

    >using sophisticated software

    I wonder what that means. Is it more sophisticated than the software I use day to day? What makes it sophisticated?

    --
    I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    1. Re:using sophisticated software by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      a sophomore in high school wrote it.

    2. Re:using sophisticated software by JWW · · Score: 2

      What makes it sophisticated?

      Well my first guess would be geolocating the images to the proper location on the earth, projecting the data in to a digitized map grid projection and storing the data in a science archival format.

    3. Re:using sophisticated software by geekoid · · Score: 1

      It means new and complex.

      It's a horrid term, but it's been used regarding software since the beginning of software.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    4. Re:using sophisticated software by geekoid · · Score: 0

      'I ain't gots no data, and I's can'ts be wrong, therefore everything is a conspiracy'

      That what you sound like to every person who actually know the science.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    5. Re:using sophisticated software by NoNonAlphaCharsHere · · Score: 1

      I think you're perhaps misinterpreting the readings from your sarcasm detector.

    6. Re:using sophisticated software by sjames · · Score: 1

      It never uses the wrong fork or puts it's elbows on the table.

    7. Re:using sophisticated software by geekoid · · Score: 1

      I'll have Scotty redirect the Tachyon emitter to my sarcasm detector mains.

      Sadly, there are people who would post what you posted without sarcasm.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  4. It could be illegal. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 4, Funny

    These film were stored in North Carolina. It is actually illegal there to predict sea level rise. There is some question about whether the law makers there banned the prediction of sea level rise or the banned sea level rise itself. But anyway these NASA scientists need to tread carefully in North Carolina.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:It could be illegal. by NoNonAlphaCharsHere · · Score: 1
      From your cited article:

      Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue had until Thursday to act on the bill known as House Bill 819, but she decided to let it become law by doing nothing.

      Priceless.

    2. Re:It could be illegal. by clovis · · Score: 5, Informative

      These film were stored in North Carolina. It is actually illegal there to predict sea level rise. There is some question about whether the law makers there banned the prediction of sea level rise or the banned sea level rise itself. But anyway these NASA scientists need to tread carefully in North Carolina.

      Total bullshit on the part of the media.
      You've got to learn to not believe what reporters say. Read the actual bill.
      http://www.ncleg.net/Sessions/...

      "The Commission shall direct the Science Panel to include in its five-year updated assessment a
      comprehensive review and summary of peer-reviewed scientific literature that address the full
      range of global, regional, and North Carolina-specific sea-level change data and hypotheses,
      including sea-level fall, no movement in sea level, deceleration of sea-level rise, and
      acceleration of sea-level rise. When summarizing research dealing with sea level, the
      Commission and the Science Panel shall define the assumptions and limitations of predictive
      modeling used to predict future sea-level scenarios. "

      The first version of the bill was the one that the news picked up and, well, just plain made up bald-faced lies about.
      Here it is:
      "Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios
      of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant,
      peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends. Rates of sea-level rise shall not be
      one rate for the entire coast, but rather the Commission shall consider separately oceanfront and
      estuarine shorelines."

      See the part about not including 'acccelerated rates of sea-level rise"? That's the controversial part of the bill. By taking the most extreme sea-level rise predictions, some sea-side community was announcing a need for huge sums of money to prepare for the "predicted rise". The bill was simply saying that you had to use peer-reviewed data and historical trends.

      I don't have a problem with the legislature requiring both historical and peer-reviewed data for predictions of sea-level rise, and I cannot imagine any scientist having a problem with that.

    3. Re:It could be illegal. by thaylin · · Score: 1

      Well when the majority is large enough to override the veto what is the point sometime? She did not sign it, that is enough to show the lack of support without wasting taxpayers money.

      --
      When you cant win, ad hominem.
    4. Re:It could be illegal. by dywolf · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It's modded funny, yet it's all too sadly true.
      City and State planning commission folks wanted to be prepared, and incorporate future sea level rise into any future construction on the coast, such as docks, ports, etc. Anything that could be affected by rising seas.

      So naturally the state legislature reacts by banning any such considerations or planning for the future and force all construction to stay in harms way. Which is absolutely idiotic. And frankly, it's a fundamental ethics violation for any civil or construction engineers to follow this law. knowing that it will directly put such projects at risk for future damage, the same as leaving out structural fireproofing or any other common safety practice.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    5. Re:It could be illegal. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 5, Interesting
      This was the original bill they were circulating. See the section 2e that mandates the use of linear interpolation? Limits the data set to post 1900? They were dropped only after getting nationwide attention.

      These legislators have been slipping such clauses into the law all the time, and this time they got caught. Otherwise they would have happily forced the value of pi to be 3.0 exact.

      Do you have problems with the legislators decreeing what interpolation technique the scientists must use? Limiting the data sets they might use? Or do you modify the bill after getting caught with hands in the cookie jar and then whip up prodigal quantities of false outrage?

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    6. Re:It could be illegal. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, that part was directing scientists to predict sea level rises or declines with only straight line curve fits.

    7. Re:It could be illegal. by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      Trying to predict the future gets you sent to the third circle of Hell, where your head is turned 180 degrees and you're forced to walk backwards for all eternity.

    8. Re:It could be illegal. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't have a problem with the legislature requiring both historical and peer-reviewed data for predictions of sea-level rise, and I cannot imagine any scientist having a problem with that.

      Christian scientists, maybe. Historical data are meaningless when you know with a certainty that there are factors present now that were not present in the past.

    9. Re:It could be illegal. by afidel · · Score: 1

      I wonder how such a law would interact with federal mandates that DOT plan for sealevel rise or army corp of engineering projects that require the contractors to do the same? I'd assume that the supremacy clause would mean that the contractors/DOT would have to follow the federal regulations and they would be indemnified by the law being invalid as it is overridden by federal statute, but it certainly puts them in a pickle.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    10. Re:It could be illegal. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It pretty much says, "You can report about sea level change, but not if the predictions are really bad."

    11. Re:It could be illegal. by ljw1004 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Total bullshit on the part of the media... The first version of the bill was the one that the news picked up and, well, just plain made up bald-faced lies about.
      Here it is:


      "Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios
      of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant,
      peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends."

      Clovis, how do you reconcile the "first version" text you quoted with this one? http://www.nccoast.org/uploads...

      These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time
      period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate
      future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.

      This version of the text totally reverses your conclusions. Was this "linear-only" text earlier than the one you quoted? Or did it come afterwards, indicating that the legislative draft actually got worse over time?

    12. Re:It could be illegal. by dkman · · Score: 1

      I have a problem with builder developing beach front property, selling it for a tidy profit, then 20 years down the line I have to pay for it when it's underwater and a disaster emergency is declared. Then insurance rates go up because of the billions of dollars lost. etc, etc
      If you don't see that coming you haven't been on the Earth long enough or you've got your blinders on.
      If you want to build on the coast that's fine, but call it a flood zone and get insured as such. I'd prefer you have enough sense to just not build there or build it up enough to handle a fair rise. A tidal wave is going to wreck your day either way.

      --
      I refuse to sign
    13. Re:It could be illegal. by Moridineas · · Score: 1

      Talk about a biased article. I am NOT saying I agree entirely with what happened, but the reality is that there was a moratorium on relying on the previous (2010) sea level report which predicted 39 inches of sea level rise. New standards for prediction are to be decided upon by 2016. The new standards do not look past 30 years.

      I personally do not believe that any climate predictions we have right now are worth shit 30 years out, so I don't have a problem with this.

      The NC coast, being surrounded for the most part by outer banks (as opposed to sea islands) are an interesting case. Erosion has long been a problem, and will continue to be a problem. I dare say a bigger problem than sea level rise.

      Oh well, I guess we'll see in thirty years!

    14. Re:It could be illegal. by Moridineas · · Score: 1

      Reference for where the state "bann[ed] any such consideration or planning for the future"? Not to a biased media source with no sources, please.

      You're absolutely right. Things are always--necessarily--better when they are centrally decided and mandated. Fireproofing is an excellent example. Thank goodness for codes that required asbestos, Tris, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers. Too bad those contrarians just want to stand in the way of progress.

    15. Re:It could be illegal. by Moridineas · · Score: 1

      There's not law that does what he says, so it's kind of a moot point!

      And when it comes down to it, county commissioners, city planners, zoning officials, etc are neither bound by the availability of plans or the lack of plans. If anti-development commissioners are elected, they can vote against expansive development all they want, completely regardless of sea level rise estimates.

      FWIW, I would be an anti-development commissioner!

    16. Re:It could be illegal. by geekoid · · Score: 1

      The problem with that is most people don't realize that's what's going on.
      Frankly, I think she should have forced a veto in order to get more attention to those dumb asses.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    17. Re:It could be illegal. by clovis · · Score: 1

      This was the original bill
      they were circulating. See the section 2e that mandates the use of linear interpolation? Limits the data set to
      post 1900? They were dropped only after getting nationwide attention.

      These legislators have been slipping such clauses into the law all the time, and this time they got caught.
      Otherwise they would have happily forced the value of pi to be 3.0 exact.

      Do you have problems with the legislators decreeing what interpolation technique the scientists must use?
      Limiting the data sets they might use? Or do you modify the bill after getting caught with hands in the cookie
      jar and then whip up prodigal quantities of false outrage?

      Thanks for the link to the committee bill. The outrage makes more sense now. Did that version actually get out of committee and onto the floor?
      I ask because the stuff that happens in committee versions of bills is indeed often ludicrous.
      I still can't find the "linear interpolation" language in any bill that was placed on the floor when I go to the state of North Carolina's legislature's web site for HR 819.

      However, what you linked to was NOT passed into law.
      I posted links to what was ACTUALLY passed into law.

      This is the statement I'm responding to:

      "These film were stored in North Carolina. It is actually illegal there [go.com] to predict sea level rise. There is some question about whether the law makers there banned the prediction of sea level rise or the banned sea level rise itself. But anyway these NASA scientists need to tread carefully in North Carolina.

      "illegal there to predict sea level rises" is wrong, and the various news articles implying that N.C. passed a law saying that are wrong.

      In answer to your questions, I still say as I said before:
      I don't have a problem with the legislature requiring both historical and peer-reviewed data for predictions of sea-level rise, and I cannot imagine any scientist having a problem with that.

      Think about it. If you don't require peer-reviewed data, then what are you allowing? Would you allow coastal N.C. communities to base funding requests on Huffington Post? That's what they are trying to prevent.

    18. Re:It could be illegal. by clovis · · Score: 1

      Total bullshit on the part of the media... The first version of the bill was the one that the news picked up and, well, just plain made up bald-faced lies about.
      Here it is:


      "Historic rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios
      of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant,
      peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends."

      Clovis, how do you reconcile the "first version" text you quoted with this one? http://www.nccoast.org/uploads...

      These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time
      period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate
      future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.

      This version of the text totally reverses your conclusions. Was this "linear-only" text earlier than the one you quoted? Or did it come afterwards, indicating that the legislative draft actually got worse over time?

      As far as I can tell, HB819 was ok, then got worse, and then got better. That's how it works in committee.
      The difference is that I got mine from the North Carolina legislature's web site.
      nccoast is a cool web site, but their postings are not law. What you are looknig at is "PROPOSED SENATE COMMITTEE SUBSTITUTE H819-CSLH-38"
      Observe the word "Proposed". I haven't been able to figure out how far the -38 proposal got. I know for certain it ain't law.

    19. Re:It could be illegal. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So naturally the state legislature reacts by banning any such considerations or planning for the future and force all construction to stay in harms way. Which is absolutely idiotic.

      And also untrue.
      Read the actual law. The mandates that future projections must be done, and that peer-reviewed scientific data must be taken into account, and must be reported whether or not it predicts static, rising or falling sea levels.
      In other words, the law says exactly the opposite of what you said.
      Again, please read the actual law.

  5. only 16 shades of grey? by ilsaloving · · Score: 4, Funny

    They could have had a much more interesting picture if they had used 50.

    1. Re:only 16 shades of grey? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And then 50 shades darker.

    2. Re:only 16 shades of grey? by colfer · · Score: 1

      coders go to 128

    3. Re:only 16 shades of grey? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your mom only goes to 69.

    4. Re:only 16 shades of grey? by Kjella · · Score: 1

      So Earth's not hot enough for you? Guess we need more global (bed)warming.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  6. thanks by micahraleigh · · Score: 2

    Glad to see something related to this topic that is not brimming over with pre-masticated opinions.

  7. Will NOAA and the ABoM falsify those too???? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The question we have to ask now is will NOAA and the ABoM falsify that data as well????

    lulz

  8. Too late for that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's not like we can stop the melting, and even if we tried, other countries wouldn't care. Oh well.

    1. Re:Too late for that. by thaylin · · Score: 0

      It seems like an impossible task, so lets not try....

      --
      When you cant win, ad hominem.
    2. Re:Too late for that. by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      you're confused, arctic ice extents now increasing last two years (from a rock bottom minimum since records started in 1970s, sure). Look forward to seeing the 1960s data.

      Funny some of "the melting" in antarctica not due to AGW at all but volcanoes, some of those sensationalists need to reign it in, hurting the cause.

    3. Re:Too late for that. by Punko · · Score: 2

      Summer Ice retreat in the arctic has never been more severe in our records. Ice thickness has similarly never been so low. The extent of winter ice is entirely a different matter. Its the difference between "weather" and "climate".

      --
      If only we could fall into a woman's arms without falling into her hands
    4. Re: Too late for that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      Here's a paper from the group discussing sea ice extent in 1964, using the Nimbus data:
      http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/699/2013/tc-7-699-2013.pdf

    5. Re:Too late for that. by Moridineas · · Score: 1

      "Never" is an awfully long time, especially when you are talking about the climate. What actual timeframe are you talking about?

    6. Re:Too late for that. by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      our records went to the 70s, until this article anyway

    7. Re:Too late for that. by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      until the data mentioned in this article, "never" really meant "since measurements began in 1978"

  9. Re:LOL at "climate researchers"... by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 0

    Crackpot Crackpot Crackpot Crackpot...there.

  10. but, but, republithugs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    but, but, that can't be. Republithugs must deny peer reviewed data. They must have maniupualted the bill somehow.

  11. Make sure they keep the originals by Spy+Handler · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    As anyone who has done VR panorama stitching can tell you, software can only do so much. The output will have some issues, like things not lining up quite correctly or colors being off in one section, etc. So you have do some Photoshop work to make it look good.

    Kind of like the raw data vs. adjusted data issue. If they show you the massaged data to back up a claim, but then say they accidentally lost the raw data (or outright refuse to release it, as in some cases)... well then you know they're no longer in the realm of science but a religious crusade.

    1. Re:Make sure they keep the originals by geekoid · · Score: 1

      " as in some cases"
      Any case not involving bad faith? no? I thought not.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  12. Even More Important... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  13. Let me guess... by spud_boy_65986534 · · Score: 0

    ...the new data shows it was even cooler in the 60s than we previously thought! More global warming!

  14. Actual Reality by tjstork · · Score: 1

    Well, you have a few stumbling blocks:

    a) While the mechanism for AGW is pretty obvious and indisputable, the actual predicted value of climate models has been lacking. That's just a fact. They are getting better, and they will get better, but it is fact that they are inaccurate today.

    b) The private sector is already pricing risk due to climate change into models for various natural disasters. Right now this is just best guess based on the models, but as the models improve, so will the risk models based on them. So, the "cost" of climate is something the market is working towards deciding. Until that actual cost is well known and understood by all parties, it will be politically impossible for anyone with any degree of skepticism towards the government in general to agree to let government decide what that price should be.

    c) Since, the price of doing nothing is not even agreed to yet, it follows that any mitigate response must be viewed with suspicion, because, you can't compare the cost of action with the unknown cost of damages. A tell tale sign that there is a perceptual agreement on this issue by everyone, purported denier, and believer, is that, most believers remain anti-nuclear power, and I've seen little evidence this administration has even considered increasing research into nuclear fusion.

    d) If the climate is always changing, it doesn't matter in the minds of some, if man is changing it or not, when something else will change it just as well.

    So, the actual dollars and cents reality is that the proponents of climate change reform are asking everyone to make some rather radical changes in their life, to let there be new winners and new losers, when it is not at all understood how much the winners will win and the losers will lose, if we choose to do nothing but let fossil fuels exhaust themselves or deal with doomsday when it happens. Sure, there's denialism, but by casting opponents of your point of view into that camp, all you've done is basically positioned yourself as someone who is advancing a political agenda with climate change as its mask, rather than fixing any problems of climate change itself.

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:Actual Reality by jfengel · · Score: 1

      Until that actual cost is well known and understood by all parties, it will be politically impossible for anyone with any degree of skepticism towards the government in general to agree to let government decide what that price should be.

      There are estimates of the cost, and they are considerable. The error bars are wide, but they are enough to at least start to move forward on some kind of system that will allow us to price in the effects that aren't being accounted for. Insurers are accounting for the effects, but not manufacturers or energy-producers, who can continue to produce as much CO2 as they want with no pricing effect at all. In fact, the possibility that there might be future costs encourages them to burn more now, raising the final future cost.

      You can be skeptical of government, but I'm equally skeptical of CO2-producing industries, for which there is even less supervision and even more imperative to create short-term gains at long-term costs. Government is the only mechanism that exists to affect the behavior of these companies, and since it's effectively undeniable that they are causing some sort of global cost there is reason to begin at least talking about regulation. Talks which don't even get started because of the various stages of denialism which insist on "nothing, ever, and we'll come up with reasons for it later." There is an opportunity cost to waiting, and it only goes up.