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Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000?
cartechboy writes How low can battery costs go, and how fast? That's the question automakers are dealing with when it comes to the future of electric cars. Tesla is betting big on electric and has already proven many skeptics wrong with its Model S sedan. The company is making even bolder claims with its upcoming Model 3 stating it'll have about 200 miles of range and a base price of $35,000. That's a nice goal, but is it possible. Battery skeptic Menahem Anderman wrote a new report suggesting that the pace of cost reduction for electric car batteries won't be as swift as Tesla's CEO Elon Musk suggests. This leads Anderman to predict the actual price of the upcoming Model 3 will be in the range of $50,000-$80,000.
Who should I believe?
Menahem Anderman a self confirmed "battery skeptic"
Elon Musk who runs the company that makes the best and arguably most successful electric car ever produced, and is constantly hitting production targets?
My money is on Elon.
From the article's conclusion: In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, “the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50-80K.” The 60-kWh version of today's Tesla Model S large luxury sedan starts at $69,900, with an EPA-rated range of 208 miles. Given that the Model 3 will be a smaller car with one-third less range, using a next-generation battery to be produced in bulk at Tesla's planned gigafactory, that seems rather pessimistic.
The price will be offset by other maintenance/repair costs. You'll win out in the long run.
Traditional gas engine cars need a lot of maintenance. They run very hot. They have a lot of fluids. Lots of rubber bits that wear out. Lots of moving parts that need lubrication. Lots of mess. You also need a lot of electronics to get modern levels of performance and effiency.
Electric motor systems are much more reliable. Less cooling.. Less wasted heat. (Less thermal stress) Simpler transmissions. (Having full torque at zero RPM solves a LOT of problems) Less complicated overall. They're lighter too, so you need less energy all together.
Whatever you will spend on a new battery will be a lot less than what you pay to maintain your gas engine car over it's lifetime. There is already a robust market for rebuilt battery packs and that will baloon in the near future. (Not all cells go bad at the same time. Just replace the bad performing cells and you're good to go)
That battery will NOT last forever,
And neither does an internal combustion engine, either. Your point?
and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one.
Citation needed. Seriously.
How good is that for the environment?
Awesome, actually. The battery can be recycled, and there aren't any heavy metals to deal with either.
--
BMO
It's not necessarily true in LA because of the way electricity is billed. If you are going for pure usage based--you will easily blow through tier 4 usage limits when charging an EV every night. This brings you into the 34 cents per kwh level. (in Los Angeles) Which also is what the rest of your house will be billed at too. This also doesn't include taxes and so-called "delivery charges" which may bring your electricity into the 50 cents per kwh range. My Volt takes like 12-14 kwh to charge. And I get maybe 40 miles range on that. So that's like $4-4.50 to charge. Maybe $6 if you add in all the fees added on top of it. I get the equivalent of a little over a gallon of premium gas in range--so maybe $5-6 of gas for $4-6 worth of electricity. I suspect the Tesla gets more miles per kwh than the Volt, though. The only way to really save money on charging your car is to get a separate meter to your garage, and have that meter billed at the time of day rate--so during the day it's 34 cents and at night (like midnight to 9 AM or something) it's 11 cents kwh. And charge only at night.
ralphbarbagallo.com
If theres a magic number for tesla, somewhere theyre hoping to get in order to dramatically increase sales of their technological wonderland on wheels, theyre sadly mistaken. Your target demographic in the future does not fucking care.
According to the AAA, From 2007 to 2011, the number of cars purchased by people aged 18 to 34, fell almost 30%, and according to a study from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, only 44% of teens obtain a drivers license within the first year of becoming eligible and just half, 54% are licensed before turning 18. Speaking as a millenial, let me be frank when I address the clearly shocked and disappointed Baby Boomer parents that find my lack of enthusiasm infuriating.
You're right, i want electric vehicles to staunch global warming and climate change. and I sure do like that cellphone I'm always carrying. However, You're delusional if you think I want a new car . You wrecked the economy, crushed the housing market, and saddled me with student loans that can never be forgiven and that will garnish my wages even after death. until last year, i didnt have a chance in hell of getting health insurance. Most of my friends work more than one job, not many of them earn a programmers salary like me and even if they did theyd be furious to find out most of it (after the universities generous cut) is going to an apartment owned by a capital investment firm that doesnt care about my broken shower. I've never met my landlord but i sure as hell know who my loan officer is. A car represents tax, title, license, maintenance, and fuel money I dont have. It represents parking tickets and accident insurance and a parking space. Not only do i lack the cash to buy this car, but chances are likely i'll never have the credit rating you did.
so drop it low. I dont care. I live downtown and I reverse-commute to the exurbs because the traffic is easier and im not as frightened of minorities as your generation was. I own a bicycle and take the bus if theres inclimate weather. The car is a 2001 crown victoria fleet vehicle I purchased used from the city with a broken door lock switch and a sagging headliner and honestly, i dont care. cars do not exemplify who I am or my success as a person and as more companies become copacetic with telecommuting, they'll only become less relevant to me.
Good people go to bed earlier.
But the entire world's projected number of electric vehicles in 2020 depends on the price of electric cars and their batteries.
I'm also assuming those projected numbers came out the ass of MBAs.
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
This is no more Troll than the original post.
My 2012 Leaf cost $15,600 used, with 8,000 miles as a rental. It looks and runs like brand new, and I don't have to recoup the difference between the purchase price and that of a similar gasoline car.
Gasoline alone used to cost $240 per month in our old car. The payment on the Leaf is $245. Electricity is about $50. Based on our acual usage, I pay about $ .07 USD per mile.
Except that these cars ARE CO2-emitting cars, unless you have arranged to get the power for your charger from renewable sources (difficult and expensive in most parts of the country). Here in Texas, these actually become a combination of coal, natural gas and nuclear burning cars.
I addessed this issue in this post. Short answer: even if the electricity is produced by coal, the large efficiency of electric motors, thermal power plants, and the electricity transmission system will ensure less emissions caused by an electric car than from a gasoline powered car. And my calculations didn't even take into account the emissions from processing oil into gasoline, which are especially high if the source is from tar sands. My calculations are referenced and I believe them to be reasonable.
This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)