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Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000?
cartechboy writes How low can battery costs go, and how fast? That's the question automakers are dealing with when it comes to the future of electric cars. Tesla is betting big on electric and has already proven many skeptics wrong with its Model S sedan. The company is making even bolder claims with its upcoming Model 3 stating it'll have about 200 miles of range and a base price of $35,000. That's a nice goal, but is it possible. Battery skeptic Menahem Anderman wrote a new report suggesting that the pace of cost reduction for electric car batteries won't be as swift as Tesla's CEO Elon Musk suggests. This leads Anderman to predict the actual price of the upcoming Model 3 will be in the range of $50,000-$80,000.
Or no.
With the rest of us kicking in the $10k subsidy, maybe 40k will be the cost.
That's a $500 lease payment and basically in line with a BMW 3 Series, not exactly demotic pricing but there's a lot of people shopping for something in that range, particularly after tax creds and discounting gasoline.
Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
For $80k, I'll just get that...or a small house.
When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
Speculation is fine, but do we really need more articles attempting to predict the cost of a car that doesn't yet exist? I might even consider buying one, but before I can take one for a test drive, and see the actual price.
Who should I believe?
Menahem Anderman a self confirmed "battery skeptic"
Elon Musk who runs the company that makes the best and arguably most successful electric car ever produced, and is constantly hitting production targets?
My money is on Elon.
From the article's conclusion: In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, “the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50-80K.” The 60-kWh version of today's Tesla Model S large luxury sedan starts at $69,900, with an EPA-rated range of 208 miles. Given that the Model 3 will be a smaller car with one-third less range, using a next-generation battery to be produced in bulk at Tesla's planned gigafactory, that seems rather pessimistic.
Your right gas cars are total non-perishable and never wear-out or need replacement parts, and gasoline can be recycled as well.
The Model S was aimed squarely at BMW 7-series, Mercedes S-Class and other similar upscale large luxury sedans. The people who can afford those like new gadgets, new technology and the like -- and have the disposable income to afford them. It would not surprise me at all if they had sufficient income to have a "second" car that they use for occasions where they will exceed the range of the Model S, in addition to a "family hauler" for the wife and kids to get around in.
If the Model 3 comes in at $50K, that will put it in line with equivalent models from the same marques they were going after with the Model S -- Audi A4, BMW 3-series. It's at the top of the range for a 3 or A4, but not absurdly so. Plus there are tax credits and in many cases the electricity is free at the SuperCharger station, or substantially cheaper than gasoline. If you are lucky enough to work at a place like I do, the electricity is free so you can charge while you are at work.
Tesla is a luxury brand. It's not being marketed to Prius and Yaris owners. Although the cost of a plug-in Prius gets pretty steep pretty quick ... to the point I'd take the (likely) much better looking Model 3, if it takes after the looks of the Model S. The other "eco" cars are kind of dowdy.
Atm I drive to and from work 100-150KM depending if I have to pick up stuff for my shop. I pay $265 for my Yaris and I give myself $300 in gas which is paid by the shop. At this rate I'd just sell the Yaris, put the money into the Tesla and have work use the gas money towards the Tesla and the payments I'm already making on the Yaris. No more fill ups and save $0.15/L+ in gas tax untill the gov surcharges me for the use of a electric vehicles. There's the cost of electricity but that should be no where near what gas is.
by TheSpoom (715771) Uncaring Linux user here. I have nothing to add to this but please continue. *munches popcorn*
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The basic oddity of the Model 3 plan is Tesla's intention to jump all the way from the $80K S down to half of that on the next model. An electric car doesn't really need to be as cheap as $35K, since the S has demonstrated demand for a higher price if the car is good, and since the average price of a new car is already $28,400, and those cars will burn tens of thousands of dollars of gas over their lifetime.
One way or another there is going to be a financial incentive to feel their way down the price point more gradually, although I hope they remain committed to, and are able to pull off, the revolutionary approach.
And those "Analy tics" was predicting low iPhone 6 sales.
They need to make a $200,000 Tesla with the best possible performance and every bell and whistle they can think of.
I like Tesla, but on their website they post prices that reflect the tax credits and other incentives, but conveniently skip sales tax, licensing, etc.
I've seen plenty of local dealers with prices on Autotrader that they then claim is after "$XXXX trade-in." What a joke.
LiON batteries can be recycled...
The price will be offset by other maintenance/repair costs. You'll win out in the long run.
Traditional gas engine cars need a lot of maintenance. They run very hot. They have a lot of fluids. Lots of rubber bits that wear out. Lots of moving parts that need lubrication. Lots of mess. You also need a lot of electronics to get modern levels of performance and effiency.
Electric motor systems are much more reliable. Less cooling.. Less wasted heat. (Less thermal stress) Simpler transmissions. (Having full torque at zero RPM solves a LOT of problems) Less complicated overall. They're lighter too, so you need less energy all together.
Whatever you will spend on a new battery will be a lot less than what you pay to maintain your gas engine car over it's lifetime. There is already a robust market for rebuilt battery packs and that will baloon in the near future. (Not all cells go bad at the same time. Just replace the bad performing cells and you're good to go)
Actually that problem is some of the best environmental news of late. When the batteries are no longer suitable for cars they still hold tremendous value for renewable energy, and since the cost of the battery has already been covered by the car purchase it will serve to subsidize the cost of energy. Also, the battery is not part of the car in the same sense as other car parts, since they are designed to be quickly swaped at charging stations to speed up 'refuel' times, so the car owner isn't responsible for it's replacement cost in the way you're implying.
Tesla Model S is 69k, the model 3 is going to be less expensive and be less "premium" for lack of a better word. If your back of the napkin estimates don't TOP out at 69k then you have no basis in reality. The article sort of points this out and says an 80k price is "pessimistic" I am going to argue that it is psychotic, and invalidates everything else this soothsayer had to say.
That battery will NOT last forever,
And neither does an internal combustion engine, either. Your point?
and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one.
Citation needed. Seriously.
How good is that for the environment?
Awesome, actually. The battery can be recycled, and there aren't any heavy metals to deal with either.
--
BMO
Scrapping the entire car? No way! The chassis, interior, and motors will still likely be in great shape. Electric motors have a WAY longer lifespan than reciprocating engines. If anything, replacing the battery every 5-10 years or so should be seen as a good thing. The tech will have improved, so your range for the same car will improve accordingly. While the battery may no longer be good for electric car demands, they can still live a long life for grid smoothing or surplus renewable power storage.
Not really. While expensive, There is a reason Mr. Musk think we can hit his price point: By bringing down battery price by building his own largest battery fab in the world.
Tesla can switch a battery pack in minutes. (One of their business plans for the future is franchise stations where one would exchange batteries in minutes, the way one now gets gas). Except for crashes a car like the Tesla S has almost NO wear and tear compared to an internal combustion car. No gearbox, no oil, no injection systems no exhaust systems no cooling systems... The Tesla S's maintenance manual consist of such things as changing your wiper blades once a year etc...
As far as the pollution form the battery pack goes: While older battery technologies were stuffed with heavy metals, That is not the case with Li-Ion batteries. They are remarkably recyclable once used up.
Hajo Monogamy: Belief so strong that millions of people end perfectly good relationships in order to start a new one.
The battery is warrantied for 8 years. What percentage of cars are not scrapped by 9 years old (not zero to be sure, but not a lot I would guess); and that assumes (falsely I would suspect) that there is a mass failure right at 8 years. If the average is even 50% farther (12 years); we are coming into a siginifgant "scrapped anyway" territory.
Heck. At 12-years on a BMW, there are any number of wearbale parts that replacement may exceed car value (tires, brakes (you have to replace the rotors with the pads on a BMW), etc).
That said: Nissan sells a 24kWh battery replacement for their ccar for $5500 (I don't have pricing on the Tesla as none are old enough to need to be baught). I would suspect that, right now, replacements are $20k. Even if not: Tesla is investing billions in bringing down battery costs, so we can expect it to be much lower in 8 years.
Further: all that assumes a new battery. What will the recycled ones cost? I Suspect not a great deal.
Finally: Assuming 15k miles per year; you will have driven 120k miles in 8 years. If you are in, say, a BMW750 (19 combined MPG) you've used a bit more than 6300 gallons which, at current $3.50 is $22,050. That means, in your gas car, you will spend more on the gas than a Tesla owner will on the battery. Assuming you don't drive much. Assuming that battery costs don't go down. Assuming that the batteries die at a mere 120k miles. And, unlike our gasoline, the battery is recycleable.
As a note: If you do replace the battery; the actual replacement itself is simple and requires few tools.
More importantly, the fact that the majority of the value in the car is in a perishable resource. That battery will NOT last forever, and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one. How good is that for the environment?
Even if the battery is easily swapped out?
That battery will NOT last forever, and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one.
At today's battery prices, sure. But the whole premise of the gigafactory is today's battery prices need to be made obsolete, and a new factory could do it. Will do it, unless every number crunched by Tesla is wrong, and that doesn't seem likely.
Today, yeah, replacing a complete lithium ion battery pack is prohibitively expensive. Tomorrow? Likely it will be a lot less.
If the gigafactory pans out and the battery price actually falls low enough to support mid-luxury sedan (BMW 3 class, Lexus 3xx) at 35K, the real action will be elsewhere. All his patents have been made public domain, gigafactory proves the ability to make battery cost that low. There will be shortage of investors for more giga factories. Nissan Leaf would go from 25K to 18K. That is the price point where that segment becomes a very very serious threat to gas car market. Till we hit Peak Lithium of course.
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
"Stanford Team Creates Stable Lithium Anode Using Honeycomb Film" "The linked article suggests that the 200-mile-range, $25,000 electric car is a more realistic concept with batteries made with this technology" http://beta.slashdot.org/story... http://cleantechnica.com/2014/...
Hey I'm skeptical too, but batteries are recycled, not just thrown in the trash heap. Plus, given the expected lifetime of a car, you'd only expect to replace the batteries once. It's not that crazy. After that the other components will be wearing out too.
"I have never let my schooling interfere with my education." - Mark Twain
Who the fuck is this ass-clown? Why do I give a fuck what he thinks?
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The battery will not be more than 30% of the value of the car.
It will last for a least 10 yrs in the car.
It will be used for other purposes or recycled after those 10 yrs.
The car can last much longer than the battery. It doesn't need to be scrapped.
Replacement batteries will be much cheaper by the time they are needed.
The motor itself is likely to last much longer than a gas engine as it's much simpler.
My God can beat up your God. Just kidding...don't take offense. I know there's no God.
Well, there are some original model Prius out there with over 1M kilometers on their less overengineered batteries so I think any speculation about throwing away a Tesla because of a worn battery pack are just a bit pessimistic.
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
When somebody can make a decent range electric car that doesn't look like a piece of shit *coughleafpriusvolt*, and isn't priced at nearly double what you'd otherwise spend on a decent-looking brand new car made by another auto manufacturer, I might consider buying one... Tesla is the only player so far in the electric vehicle market that has made attractive cars with respectable range. But until Tesla can actually compete with gasoline cars on the amount it will actually cost to own one, they are just never going to be anything but a luxury automobile. That's not to say that they won't sell... they certainly will, But they are selling their name... not the vehicle. And there are lots of people out there who will pay top dollar for a brand name. However, not everyone can practically afford a luxury car, even though they can quite comfortably afford an otherwise really nice looking car that isn't a hybrid or EV.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
And neither does an internal combustion engine, either. Your point?
Wait. If an IC Engine stops working, and it costs $15k-$45k to replace, don't people normally scrap their car and get a new one? Isn't that what's being suggested for the electric cars (in essence) when a battery fails, if it costs about the same as an IC Engine?
Not unless the car has been damaged.
BMWs have very high resale value. 12 year old BMWs are currently 2002 models. Very few model year 2002 BMWs can be found for under $5000 in _any_ condition.
In fact, if you do a quick search on autotrader.com for model year 2002 BMWs, you'll see that there are 1200 listings with an average asking price of $9700
I happen to be quite familiar with the running costs of old BMWs. The drive train of a BMW will easily last 12 years without substantial work. The exceptions would be the plastic cooling system components, and, on some models, premature VANOS failure. Sadly, on the newer N54 engines the HPFP is a disaster, but that is not the majority of used BMWs, and certainly not MY2002 cars.
Even paying dealer prices, to replace brakes, suspension rubber, tires, cooling system, etc, will not cost you $9000.
The brake rotors and pads are a few hundred dollars per corner, and you could replace them yourself in your own garage with a jack and hand tools.
FWIW, I really like Tesla. I look forward to a time when buying one of their cars makes sense for me.
However, your consideration of the repair costs of a 12 year old BMW is way off. Thus, my response.
Also, Brakes and Tires are functionally identical between a BMW and a Tesla, and, on the Model S, the Tesla replacement parts are probably more expensive (I haven't priced them to be certain), because the Tesla has very large low profile tires and very large brakes, especially compared to the "average" BMW (instead of their X5 trucks with big wheels, or their high performance M models with larger brakes)
So comparing a 12 year old BMW and a 12 year old Tesla, the wear and maintenance parts differences are the Tesla's battery vs. the BMW's conventional drivetrain. The latter requires coolant flushes, oil changes, transmission fluid changes, air filters, etc.
The one maintenance surprise that I learned about when chatting with a Tesla service technician was that on the model S, the A/C refrigerant is serviced regularly, because it is an integral component of the battery cooling system.
My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
Canada: (average car age) has remained within a tight range over the last decade, averaging 8.4 years
EU: 8.3
Is the avg. car age affected by collectors in the usa, or what ???
And here's for UK;
The average age of cars on UK roads has risen to 7.44 years, as drivers feel the pinch. This figure was revealed by British Car Auctions (BCA), and is up from 6.93 years in 2008. Around seven million cars on the road sit in the six to eight year old age bracket.
If theres a magic number for tesla, somewhere theyre hoping to get in order to dramatically increase sales of their technological wonderland on wheels, theyre sadly mistaken. Your target demographic in the future does not fucking care.
According to the AAA, From 2007 to 2011, the number of cars purchased by people aged 18 to 34, fell almost 30%, and according to a study from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, only 44% of teens obtain a drivers license within the first year of becoming eligible and just half, 54% are licensed before turning 18. Speaking as a millenial, let me be frank when I address the clearly shocked and disappointed Baby Boomer parents that find my lack of enthusiasm infuriating.
You're right, i want electric vehicles to staunch global warming and climate change. and I sure do like that cellphone I'm always carrying. However, You're delusional if you think I want a new car . You wrecked the economy, crushed the housing market, and saddled me with student loans that can never be forgiven and that will garnish my wages even after death. until last year, i didnt have a chance in hell of getting health insurance. Most of my friends work more than one job, not many of them earn a programmers salary like me and even if they did theyd be furious to find out most of it (after the universities generous cut) is going to an apartment owned by a capital investment firm that doesnt care about my broken shower. I've never met my landlord but i sure as hell know who my loan officer is. A car represents tax, title, license, maintenance, and fuel money I dont have. It represents parking tickets and accident insurance and a parking space. Not only do i lack the cash to buy this car, but chances are likely i'll never have the credit rating you did.
so drop it low. I dont care. I live downtown and I reverse-commute to the exurbs because the traffic is easier and im not as frightened of minorities as your generation was. I own a bicycle and take the bus if theres inclimate weather. The car is a 2001 crown victoria fleet vehicle I purchased used from the city with a broken door lock switch and a sagging headliner and honestly, i dont care. cars do not exemplify who I am or my success as a person and as more companies become copacetic with telecommuting, they'll only become less relevant to me.
Good people go to bed earlier.
A "bad" battery won't land in a landfill. At least the raw materials will be recovered (there's a lot of Li that you don't have to buy then) and there's also lots of mechanical and electronic parts that will be still fine. Refurbishing and recycling could save a lot of cost compared to new batteries.
Building lots of them will also make them cheaper, as with everything.
Hurray! My car is way above average!
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
Your right gas cars are total non-perishable and never wear-out or need replacement parts, and gasoline can be recycled as well.
I need to know what an electric car is going to cost me over its projected service life. I need to know the up-front cost of replacing a battery. I do not want to base my purchasing decision on "green" energy subsidies that may disappear after the next election.
Also, Brakes and Tires are functionally identical between a BMW and a Tesla, and, on the Model S
Sort of. The tires, yes. The brakes are functionally identical, but should wear much more slowly on the Model S thanks to regenerative braking. How much less depends on driving style, obviously.
Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
The charge/discharge cycles is what wears a battery much more than age (although age also has some effect).
The highest mileage Tesla Model S I've heard about has a bit over 100K miles on it. The owner reports it's on the original battery and has only lost a few percent of range (battery capacity) compared to new.
Soo what you're saying is when a car fails to work you buy a new one. Who knew....
No tires? No suspension? No wheel bearings? No steering box?
Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
First show a proper cart of how the batteries charge capacity decreases with time.
Miles driven is a much better metric as charge/discharge cycles ages a battery more than age.
Such a chart was done on the Tesla forum where owners reported miles and the max range after a charge. The chart showed a very small deterioration with well over 90% capacity remaining after 100K miles (the highest mileage reported).
Second what proportion of the cars cost is the batteried which will have to be replaces in N years time
We haven't found the limit for Tesla batteries yet. How will we know what a replacement battery will cost in X years where X could be upwards of 15-20 years?
What is the 'carbon' footprint of the vehicles manufacture and how does that compare to the typical combustion engine cars manufacture and lifetime use.
All aluminum (easily recyclable) car with very few moving parts and no tail pipe emissions vs just about anything else... I'd think it compares very favorably.
This year, I went to the annual auto show in Dallas. What a total waste of money and time. The automakers who bothered to attend sent very junior people who didn't know anything. But they looked young and pretty. And that was their main selling point too: pretty. Pretty girls selling pretty cars. One of the few interesting cars there was a Nissan Leaf.
Don't know why they bothered having the show. If the show was an indication of the state of automobiling, I'd say they are out of ideas, and too gutless to try what few ideas they do have. Dealerships trying to stifle competition through legal technicalities makes them look really weak. Car makers need some serious shaking up, and Tesla may be the spark that sets off the forest fire. I hope batteries improve to the point that gasoline powered cars can no longer compete, and the public begins unloading them, rather like the way they unloaded SUVs in 2008 when the price of gas spiked, but more permanent.
Intellectual Property is a monopolistic, selfish, and defective concept. It is "tyranny over the mind of man"
The battery should also last a very long time. I have read the post from one owner who has already racked up over 100,000 miles and still has over 95% of his original battery capacity. Tesla has a battery replacement policy where you can pay up-front to get a new battery after 8 years and get a $1000 rebate each year you wait beyond that.
Instead I decided to take some of that money and buy some stock when it was at $38. I'm kicking myself that I didn't buy more.
The electric motor in my Tesla won't need a lube job for another 10 1/2 years according to the person I spoke with when I had service done. While there is still coolant, many of the issues with ICE vehicles don't apply. The brakes will last much longer since most braking is regenerative. I still need tire rotations and the cabin air filter and the windshield wipers replaced periodically though. I suspect that even the coolant will last a lot longer since a gasoline engine generates far more heat.
A lot of other components should last much longer. There's no transmission, only around a dozen moving parts in the entire drivetrain and few friction points. The AC compressor is electric and completely sealed and there's no flexible hoses. Power steering is electric, not hydraulic which should last a lot longer as well.
Also, it is far easier to reach stuff than in an ICE car. Most things are easily accessible by removing the plastic frunk liner or removing a panel under the front of the car. The entire drivetrain is also easily removable as a unit. Similarly the battery can be easily removed. The car is far simpler to work on.
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This is no more Troll than the original post.
Brakes are different in the Tesla than in BMW. In the case of Tesla there is a lot of regenerative braking so the brakes should last a lot longer. Tires on the other hand... I have the performance version of the Tesla model S with the 21" rims. When I got my car there was no price difference between the 19 and 21" rims. Anyway, I managed to get a bit over 15K miles on the original tires. The negative camber Tesla uses tends to be a bit hard on the rear tires, plus I tend to accelerate rather hard.
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The Prius has an internal combustion engine that can power the vehicle even though the batteries are worn out.
The 'shitty weather' parts of the USA will have average ages in line with Canada. It's the road salt that kills them.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Aluminum bodies mean every fender bender is a replaced fender. Shitty material to make cars out of.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
The entire car is built of aluminum so it should last a long time (and can be easily recycled into beer cans or new cars at low energy cost).
Li batteries can also be recycled... wait for it... into new Li batteries.
I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
84MPG, only $6800 -- that's not a typo.
http://www.eliomotors.com/
Yes, it's an enclosed motorcycle, but it drives like a car. You will not need a helmet in almost all states. It will solve more problems than the Tesla will, which is a just a Green toy for Rich people. This is an actual vehicle for you and me, regular people that earn less than 6 figures a year.
If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
"r, and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one."
That's simply not true.
Even in you incorrect example, it's still better the a gas car, for a number of reasons.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
"and it costs $15k-$45k to replace,"
what? People dn't buy a new car becasue it's cheaper then buying an engine. They use the failing engine as an excuse to buy a new car.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
My 2012 Leaf cost $15,600 used, with 8,000 miles as a rental. It looks and runs like brand new, and I don't have to recoup the difference between the purchase price and that of a similar gasoline car.
Gasoline alone used to cost $240 per month in our old car. The payment on the Leaf is $245. Electricity is about $50. Based on our acual usage, I pay about $ .07 USD per mile.
I doubt it, my wife's last van is 11 years old and while it has some rust her sister is still driving it just fine, my 11 year old Vibe has hardly any rust and I live in the middle of road salt hell (NE Ohio), it's not the 70's anymore, cars don't rust out in 8 years.
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
VS what, a car from the 1970's? Everything from the mid 80's on is a complete fender replacement in the case of an accident. It's the price we pay for fuel economy. Heck, many fairly minor accidents result in the vehicle being totaled due to crumple zones, that's the price we pay for safety. In both cases it's a minor percentage of the total cost of the vehicle fleet.
There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
"You wrecked the economy, crushed the housing market, and saddled me with student loans that can never be forgiven and that will garnish my wages even after death"
You can, in order:
Blame the banks and government for shady lending practices
Blame the banks and government for shady lending practices
Blame yourself for taking on student loans to pay for your education. Guess what ? No one else gets a free ride through college either. ( Unless you're smart enough to earn a full scholarship, or let the military pay for much of your school for you )
I tire of the never-ending whining of the millennial generation about how they can't afford anything and how unfair it is that they're not earning six-figure top pay the moment they graduate from college. Way too much of an entitlement attitude I think.
Welcome to reality son :D Where you really can't afford everything you've ever wanted right now, where debt follows you around forever and where you might have to put a few years in at a company before your pay is where you want it. Just fyi, the majority of recent-grads aren't swimming in excess cash either. Wait till you get tired of that apartment and all the bullshit that comes with downtown living and buy a house. Think you have no money now ? LOL
Want kid$ ?
Want to retire someday ?
The worst part about it is it's mostly the fault of my generation ( X ) giving their kids everything they ever wanted all of the time. They got accustomed to that lifestyle and when they finally get out into the real world ( those that actually leave home anymore ) reality comes down on them HARD. They never realized how much money things really cost until it's coming out of their own pocket. ( Then it's unfair of course ) Why is my credit card maxed out ? Why is my credit score so terrible ? What do you mean I have to make insurance premium payments on my healthcare every month ? Why the hell does the government take 25% of my paycheck ?
Oh, to finish up. Consider living outside of the downtown area. It's typically cheaper, although you'll need to buy a vehicle because riding your bike or the bus to work every day for a 100 mile round trip commute gets really old. Really fast.
So, have fun with life as it really exists and get off my lawn :P
Sounds like maybe someone is paying Mr. Anderman to be a "naysayer".
Make money on driving competitors stocks down ?
Now who could profit from that?
Maurice W. Hilarius Voice: (778) 347-9907
They're lighter too, so you need less energy all together.
Google tells me that a Tesla Model S weighs 4,464 or 4,647 lbs.
A 2008 Toyota Camry is supposedly 3307 lbs. A 2014 Camry is 3190.
I think any reduction in engine weight is made up for by the batteries.
Whatever you will spend on a new battery will be a lot less than what you pay to maintain your gas engine car over it's lifetime. There is already a robust market for rebuilt battery packs and that will baloon in the near future. (Not all cells go bad at the same time. Just replace the bad performing cells and you're good to go)
When your battery has diminished life due to age of the battery, you will not be replacing individual cells.
This post puts the cost of a battery for a Tesla S at $45k. Alternatively, it looks like you can pre-pay $12k when you get your car and get your replacement battery years later. http://www.teslamotors.com/en_...
I have no idea of what the availability is/will be for third party huge car batteries... It is a little bit of a specialty item.
Sure, the regenerative braking probably reduces the wear on the brakes.
Point being, brake pads and rotors are normal replacement items. You should expect to replace them more than once in 12 years on a normal vehicle. I can wear down a set of pads in a weekend at the track. It depends a lot on how you drive.
I will agree that on the Tesla I test drove, I barely touched the brake pedal. The regen was turned up to maximum and that does a good job of slowing the car down if you are paying attention.
BMWs also tend to have static negative rear camber, and are RWD like the Tesla. But the wheels are smaller dia, which means the tires are more affordable.
I think over 12 years you will spend similar or more on Tesla model S brake and tire components as compared to an average BMW. I look forward to hearing from Model S owners 11 years from now...
My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
I like the idea of electric cars but yeah that price had me laughing pretty hard. I had an engine switched for 3k here ( that was a really cheap and dirty job ) but for 5k I could've gotten a much better quality replacement. Then again I wasn't going to invest 5k in a 12 years old econoline even if it ran fine.
All electric companies have lower rates for electric vehicles. For example, edison allows you to set up a separate meter for electric vehicle and pay only $0.11/kWh.
It's the dry climate they have in many parts. I'm Canadian too and "newer" cars last an incredible amount of time now ( well by Canadian standards anyway ). I had a 2001 car that I gave to my sister in 2013 and it had some small rust spots on the hood but nothing like the flingstone floors and speed holes of the past that you would've had at that point.
I got a 2005 afterward and it's pristine except for a spot that was badly repaired after an accident that's starting to rust.
Arghhh.
I have the 19" wheels and have about ~12K miles on them, I think. Will have to pay attention to them this winter. :-(
First winter in my Model S, and the last time I had a read wheel driver car through a winter was 2004-2005. :-)
Help! I'm a slashdot refugee.
$500 lease payment + $150 in gasoline (15k miles, 30mpg, $4/gallon gasoline, rounded down). You might want to round up to account
Once you factor that in, you're looking at $350/month cars, which are still nice ones if not BMW 3 series.
My Tacoma was $300/month while the payments lasted, and it's not exactly long on features, and bought in '08.
I don't read AC A human right
How easy is it to get a separate time-of-day rate meter in California?
I'd rate it as 'very easy' - there are companies that will do the install and I found an article on Los Angeles EV rebates. It pays you $250 for a separate meter, which they say will cover 'months' of charging. From what I remember electric meters are cheaper than water meters.
The Tesla can indeed be configured to charge only during a preset time, or hooked up to a system that allows the power company to turn it off when needed for even more discounts.
I don't read AC A human right
A ICE can be expected to outlast the car if it's from a decent manufacturer such as Toyota or Honda. You have 30-40 year old engines still running that have been repurposed into newer bodies (some from crappy manufacturers where engines failed like a GM or Ford, others into stock car frames and oversized go-karts). A battery is not expected to live for the lifetime of the car regardless. With a Honda Civic, the engine is going to outlast the rest of the car.
You're expected to need a battery replacement some time in the future, long before the things like engines, CV joints, drive trains, steering racks, door handles, electric mirrors, seat motors and so on fail. We know that Li-ion batteries degrade over time, your laptop battery in 3 years will not last as long as it does today so It's not unreasonable to want to know this cost in advance. With a prius or other hybrid, you can use that as a conventional fuel burning car after the battery fails, but not with a full EV.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
"and it costs $15k-$45k to replace,"
what? People dn't buy a new car becasue it's cheaper then buying an engine. They use the failing engine as an excuse to buy a new car.
Beyond this, an engine swap isn't going to cost $45K unless you're a complete idiot and are trying to fit an Aston Martin V10 (Aston V10's can be had for $30K).
A B series swap into a Civic will cost $10K at Australian rates if you get someone else to do the work. Less than this if you're swapping in the same model of engine.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
Heck. At 12-years on a BMW, there are any number of wearbale parts that replacement may exceed car value (tires, brakes (you have to replace the rotors with the pads on a BMW), etc).
You might as well have written "I dont know anything about cars". It would have been quicker and faster.
A set of racing spec brake pads and rotors (Project Mu) for my 14 yr old Nissan S15 cost A$1000, that's racing spec (800 degrees C) for sustained track use. A set of povo spec rotors and pads from Supercheap Auto will cost in the vicinity of $300 and this is Australia, one of the most expensive countries in the world.
Also you dont have to replace the rotors with the pads (whoever fed you that line was probably making a mint from you). A set of rotors should last several sets of pads unless you're doing a lot of track days on stock rotors and heating them up until they crack.
Even a replacement gearbox should only cost $2000 ish for most cars.
Now for average cars like a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla, these are dirt cheap to keep running and repair, not that they often need repairs. There is an abundance of aftermarket parts for them (and BMW's) so even if you blow a radiator, it's going to be $400-500 to replace, hoses and all and most of that would be labour. People try to kill Honda Civic's and fail.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
I rarely use the brakes and typically only at very slow speeds. Even with my previous car, a Prius, people typically got at least 100K miles without needing to change the brake pads and Tesla's regenerative braking is a fair amount stronger than what my Prius was capable of.
The pre-paid service plan covers everything but the tires, so for at least the next eight years even if I do somehow wear down my brake pads they are covered. The service plan covers everything but the tires. The service also includes applying various fixes and changes that have been discovered since the car was manufactured, including minor things that affect things like rattles and noises. It includes a wheel alignment and check and replacement of all expendables. Combined with the warranty basically the only things I have to pay for are tires and some tire rotations.
So for at least the next four years I will pay $0 for brake pads.
http://www.teslamotors.com/ser...
It works out to around $475 per 12K miles, which for a car of its class is quite reasonable, especially given the level of service I get.
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While I don't get snow where I live from everything I've heard the Tesla does quite well despite being rear-wheel drive due to how smooth the electric motor is. I also understand the 19" tires last quite a bit longer. The 21" summer tires are crap in cold weather and especially in snow. I had to drive from Reno NV to the Bay Area last March and hit snow coming down and it wasn't too fun, especially since the 21" wheels cannot use chains. The traction control on the Tesla is better than most cars since the electric motor is much more responsive. I read that the TC is able to monitor and control the wheels around 1000 times/second. My experience is my model S is a hell of a lot better than the Toyota I used to drive. That car would lose power for a good second if I so much as ran over a pothole and good luck if a tire slipped on snow. My model S P85 is able to keep the wheels just on the edge for acceleration.
When I was driving back the snow was starting to really come down. I had just beaten the chain requirement. It was not fun with my tires but none of the problems were due to acceleration or traction control, more just from the fact that the tires had no grip and given that fact the car still did fairly well. Driving up to the summit to try and beat the snow was fun though. That car doesn't seem to care if it's a steep grade or not :)
This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
You might as well have written "I dont know anything about cars". It would have been quicker and faster.
A set of racing spec brake pads and rotors (Project Mu) for my 14 yr old Nissan S15 cost A$1000, that's racing spec (800 degrees C) for sustained track use. A set of povo spec rotors and pads from Supercheap Auto will cost in the vicinity of $300 and this is Australia, one of the most expensive countries in the world.
Also you dont have to replace the rotors with the pads (whoever fed you that line was probably making a mint from you). A set of rotors should last several sets of pads unless you're doing a lot of track days on stock rotors and heating them up until they crack.
http://www.cargurus.com/Cars/D...
http://www.bimmerfest.com/foru...
In short: BMW uses thin rotors and the manufacturer recommends strongly against grinding them. It is therefore normal, assuming there was not a defect in the pad, that the rotor would be below spec or warped (and not grindable) when the pad wears out. It's not universal, but pretty normal.
The cheapest I've seen anyone claiming to sell the rotor is about $70ea (not sure that was the 330). The norm seems to be $120ea (looking at 2001 model 330 as that's what I used to own). So there's $480 and I've not gotten the pads yet, nor have I paid a mechanic to install them.
I suppose I have a choice. I can believe the manufacturer, dealer, and mechanic I usually used on my old BMW, as well as the bulk of what's said by owners on the forums... or I can believe you.
Due to regenerative breaking: this is one of many maintenance costs that will be significantly lower on a Tesla S than its competitors; offsetting a potential battery replacement later.
Yea. I wish I could have managed anything like that for my 330i.
I remember when I was spec'ing out my new car (looked at a new 528, but ended up getting a 4-year-old 535) that the Lakeland BMW dealer had a 2005 550i asking $13k. I considered getting it but for the thousands I had had to put into my old 330i. I opted instead for something I could get under CPO. I've already had the fuel injectors replaced, the battery replaced, the part that was supposed to make the battery last longer but instead broke and fried the batter replaced, the windshield-wiper motor replaced, and one or two other things I'm not thinking of right this moment.
My old 330, among other things (those plastic bits you mentioned in the cooling system being one of them) lost the GenMod.
Seriously, this guy has written about Tesla for a number of years. Yet, he has always been negative on them, and WRONG.
The global EV market will grow from 65,000 units in 2012 to 450,000 in 2020; and yet, pure evs nearly doubled in 2013 to 111K and on-track to double last years sales in 2014. Heck, at the end of 2015, Tesla ALONE will be producing 50K cars / year.
and here, he gripes about Tesla as being a large unknown, and not likely to hit its numbers.
Basically, Anderman is NOT about batteries, but just an industry troll, with lousy ability to make accurate predictions.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
If it's wrinkled it gets replaced. But there are still many dents that get pounded/pulled out, bondoed and painted. Impossible with aluminum.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
New battery for the Leaf is $5500, and should be good for at least another 100-150k miles, more if you are in moderate climates. So the second 100k miles on a second battery will only cost you electricity of about $0.03 to $0.04 a mile, and about $0.06 a mile worth of battery cost. Still cheap.
A new Leaf battery will set you back $5500, not $15-45k. That price may drop further in the future.
Tesla's have bigger batteries and go through a lot stress per mile than a Leaf (less percentage discharge for the same number of miles driven), so they are likely to last several times longer than the ~100-150k miles you can expect out of a Leaf's battery.
For fancy muscle cars, this may be true -- the gas versions cost a lot to maintain. For regular people cheap cars, there aren't that many costs. Saving the $30 a year I spend on an oil change will take centuries to pay for a battery replacement.
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Yeah! Someone who didn't missed the "hakuna matata" message in Lion King.
Recycling EV batteries is the virtuous circle of LiFePO4
Cryonics - Keep cool and carry on.
The prices the article mentions are before or after incentives? If someone makes an electric car that costs, say $30000 after incentives, the government will greatly reduce the incentives, as they will evolve into a huge financial liability.
which would be a pretty good investment by the government, backed by the electrical industry, industry willing to gamble on building the infrastructure for electrical vehicles, and environmental interest groups/industries.
It is easy to come up with possible ways of subsidizing the Tesla to keep its cost low, possibly lower than the $35k proposed. It is a technology a lot of people want to see succeed.
"Consensus" in science is _always_ a political construct.
I got 10 good years from my Saturn. And no rust problem.
Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
My Mini is perfectly average, then. It's a 2003 (got it in March), so it's almost exactly 11.4 years old and only has about 84k miles on it. My previous car was 17 when I passed it on to a local enthusiast. It had something like 77k miles on it (A 1987 Conquest TSI - cool car!).
Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
Unless there is some enormous revolution in battery technology that makes state-of-the-art Lithium Ion / Lithium Polymer batteries look as antiquated as lead-acid, AND is cheaply and easily mass-manufactured, Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) are going to be a better option for most people through the 2010s and 2020s.
The reason is simple: When the range of your vehicle can be measured in a few hundred miles, you are going to need to refuel or recharge quite often. Problem is, the only place you can guarantee the availability of charging apparatus (and the permission to use it) is on your own personal property. If you're very very lucky, you might be able to secure access to this at your place of employment -- but if you switch jobs, all bets are off.
Since gasoline stations are omnipresent almost anywhere in the civilized world, not only in the U.S. but worldwide, having your vehicle ultimately rely on gasoline as a "fall-back" or "range extender" means that you could, in a pinch, get in your car that's out of battery juice and has 1 gallon of gas in the tank; go to the nearest refueling station; fill up; drive several hundred miles; and repeat that several times to get from one end of the country to the other. You'd only spend a total of about 30 minutes refueling throughout your long journey.
So a PHEV can be relied upon to have "virtually unlimited range" (assuming you have unlimited money to pay for the gas) if you have a sudden, pressing need to go a long distance. You cannot rely upon a pure EV because you have no idea where you'll be able to find a recharging station, and even if you do, assuming it's compatible, it will take at least 45 minutes to an hour to get a good charge going (until EV batteries are based on supercaps or something that can recharge in seconds, but that's yet to be commercialized, much less mass-manufactured).
200 miles isn't a lot. Back and forth to work; run some errands; drive across part of a mid-Atlantic state to visit a relative; and you've driven 200 miles. Better hope grandma can bring out a long extension cord to charge up your car on the 120V overnight (assuming the current draw doesn't pop her 1970s-era circuit breaker faster than an electric lawnmower will).
I want to see more PHEVs with a range long enough for your ordinary commute on pure EV, but with a range extender (basically a gasoline-powered electric generator) that can give you range competitive with traditional gasoline vehicles. The nice thing about PHEVs is that you can make the battery a little bit smaller than the enormous ones Tesla needs for a 200-mile EV, which cuts down the cost into the 30k range quite easily. Tack on a medium-sized government subsidy and you're looking at sub-30k prices for a vehicle that might only use gasoline weekly or bi-weekly if the driver can fit their round trip commute in on the EV.
This is possible TODAY. To avoid the appearance of a shill I am deliberately not mentioning any manufacturers or vehicle models. But I really don't think people will be able to buy pure EVs until there is an Earth-shattering revolution in battery technology that would enable 1000+ mile range OR near-instantaneous charging; and even then, we'll need to build up a near-omnipresent charging infrastructure before you'll see very much adoption.
Meanwhile, with PHEVs, smart owners can continue to demand that the infrastructure for EV charging will build up, while still having a fallback if absolutely needed. The fallback of gasoline gets about half the MPG (i.e., costs twice as much) as using electricity produced on the grid, so drivers have a financial motivation to ask their workplace, local convenience stores and gas stations, etc. to have advanced high-speed chargers. This demand and the resultant market response will help build up the infrastructure WHILE we are getting our ducks in a row to prepare for the full-on EV revolution. Therefore, we avoid the chicken and egg problem by phasing in the demand, and we don't inconvenience consumers in the near term by allowing them
I recently had to have the engine in my car replaced. Total was $3000. The best price I could find a similar used car was $8000. Given that the rest of the car was (and still is) in very good and fully operational condition, the $5000 savings made sense.
Don't try to out wierd me, three-eyes. I get stranger things than you, free with my breakfast cereal. --Zaphod Beeblebr
In my recent experience, it takes maybe eight years to lose that newish feel to a car. Sometime after that, they tend to go downhill. I'd be surprised to find that a nine-year-old car that hadn't been through something bad (a bad accident or a fire or something) was going to be scrapped.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
A Prius with a bad traction battery is going NOWHERE. The car doesn't move unless there's a good battery in it.
Honda IMA cars can go if the batteries are worn out though (and have to often :( ).