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Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000?
cartechboy writes How low can battery costs go, and how fast? That's the question automakers are dealing with when it comes to the future of electric cars. Tesla is betting big on electric and has already proven many skeptics wrong with its Model S sedan. The company is making even bolder claims with its upcoming Model 3 stating it'll have about 200 miles of range and a base price of $35,000. That's a nice goal, but is it possible. Battery skeptic Menahem Anderman wrote a new report suggesting that the pace of cost reduction for electric car batteries won't be as swift as Tesla's CEO Elon Musk suggests. This leads Anderman to predict the actual price of the upcoming Model 3 will be in the range of $50,000-$80,000.
Or no.
Who should I believe?
Menahem Anderman a self confirmed "battery skeptic"
Elon Musk who runs the company that makes the best and arguably most successful electric car ever produced, and is constantly hitting production targets?
My money is on Elon.
In short someone who who could afford the car is someone who really shouldn't need the tax credits. An other case of normal politics.
The right makes it so the Rich doesn't have to pay taxes.
The left makes it so the Rich are the only one able to avoid paying taxes.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
From the article's conclusion: In the most likely scenario, Anderman writes, “the price of the 2017 new model will be in the range of $50-80K.” The 60-kWh version of today's Tesla Model S large luxury sedan starts at $69,900, with an EPA-rated range of 208 miles. Given that the Model 3 will be a smaller car with one-third less range, using a next-generation battery to be produced in bulk at Tesla's planned gigafactory, that seems rather pessimistic.
Your right gas cars are total non-perishable and never wear-out or need replacement parts, and gasoline can be recycled as well.
insert morpheus meme -- "What if i told you the rich run both parties, and neither has the middle/lower classes interests at heart?"
The price will be offset by other maintenance/repair costs. You'll win out in the long run.
Traditional gas engine cars need a lot of maintenance. They run very hot. They have a lot of fluids. Lots of rubber bits that wear out. Lots of moving parts that need lubrication. Lots of mess. You also need a lot of electronics to get modern levels of performance and effiency.
Electric motor systems are much more reliable. Less cooling.. Less wasted heat. (Less thermal stress) Simpler transmissions. (Having full torque at zero RPM solves a LOT of problems) Less complicated overall. They're lighter too, so you need less energy all together.
Whatever you will spend on a new battery will be a lot less than what you pay to maintain your gas engine car over it's lifetime. There is already a robust market for rebuilt battery packs and that will baloon in the near future. (Not all cells go bad at the same time. Just replace the bad performing cells and you're good to go)
Tesla Model S is 69k, the model 3 is going to be less expensive and be less "premium" for lack of a better word. If your back of the napkin estimates don't TOP out at 69k then you have no basis in reality. The article sort of points this out and says an 80k price is "pessimistic" I am going to argue that it is psychotic, and invalidates everything else this soothsayer had to say.
It's not about what they 'need'. That word's almost as arbitrary and useless as 'deserve'. This is about incentivizing people who can afford to buy the Tesla Model 3 instead of the V8 sports car they might otherwise be showing off.
09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
That battery will NOT last forever,
And neither does an internal combustion engine, either. Your point?
and when it needs a new one you'd be better off scrapping the entire car and buying a new one.
Citation needed. Seriously.
How good is that for the environment?
Awesome, actually. The battery can be recycled, and there aren't any heavy metals to deal with either.
--
BMO
That math really only works if you charge during peak hours (which most people don't) and compare it to the cost/mile driven of a Prius. Which is about as stretched of an assignment as you can make
Well let's see:
Your food.
The gasoline you buy.
The other cars you could buy.
Your bank account insurance.
Your home insurance.
The list goes on and on. I don't think you live in the Somalian government free paradise you think you do.
It's not necessarily true in LA because of the way electricity is billed. If you are going for pure usage based--you will easily blow through tier 4 usage limits when charging an EV every night. This brings you into the 34 cents per kwh level. (in Los Angeles) Which also is what the rest of your house will be billed at too. This also doesn't include taxes and so-called "delivery charges" which may bring your electricity into the 50 cents per kwh range. My Volt takes like 12-14 kwh to charge. And I get maybe 40 miles range on that. So that's like $4-4.50 to charge. Maybe $6 if you add in all the fees added on top of it. I get the equivalent of a little over a gallon of premium gas in range--so maybe $5-6 of gas for $4-6 worth of electricity. I suspect the Tesla gets more miles per kwh than the Volt, though. The only way to really save money on charging your car is to get a separate meter to your garage, and have that meter billed at the time of day rate--so during the day it's 34 cents and at night (like midnight to 9 AM or something) it's 11 cents kwh. And charge only at night.
ralphbarbagallo.com
What else can subsidize here?
Well, in your case, apparently grammar school.
Not unless the car has been damaged.
BMWs have very high resale value. 12 year old BMWs are currently 2002 models. Very few model year 2002 BMWs can be found for under $5000 in _any_ condition.
In fact, if you do a quick search on autotrader.com for model year 2002 BMWs, you'll see that there are 1200 listings with an average asking price of $9700
I happen to be quite familiar with the running costs of old BMWs. The drive train of a BMW will easily last 12 years without substantial work. The exceptions would be the plastic cooling system components, and, on some models, premature VANOS failure. Sadly, on the newer N54 engines the HPFP is a disaster, but that is not the majority of used BMWs, and certainly not MY2002 cars.
Even paying dealer prices, to replace brakes, suspension rubber, tires, cooling system, etc, will not cost you $9000.
The brake rotors and pads are a few hundred dollars per corner, and you could replace them yourself in your own garage with a jack and hand tools.
FWIW, I really like Tesla. I look forward to a time when buying one of their cars makes sense for me.
However, your consideration of the repair costs of a 12 year old BMW is way off. Thus, my response.
Also, Brakes and Tires are functionally identical between a BMW and a Tesla, and, on the Model S, the Tesla replacement parts are probably more expensive (I haven't priced them to be certain), because the Tesla has very large low profile tires and very large brakes, especially compared to the "average" BMW (instead of their X5 trucks with big wheels, or their high performance M models with larger brakes)
So comparing a 12 year old BMW and a 12 year old Tesla, the wear and maintenance parts differences are the Tesla's battery vs. the BMW's conventional drivetrain. The latter requires coolant flushes, oil changes, transmission fluid changes, air filters, etc.
The one maintenance surprise that I learned about when chatting with a Tesla service technician was that on the model S, the A/C refrigerant is serviced regularly, because it is an integral component of the battery cooling system.
My opinions are my own, and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
The rest of you driving CO2-emitting cars should be paying a lot more than the tiny fraction of your taxes that goes to EV incentives.
If theres a magic number for tesla, somewhere theyre hoping to get in order to dramatically increase sales of their technological wonderland on wheels, theyre sadly mistaken. Your target demographic in the future does not fucking care.
According to the AAA, From 2007 to 2011, the number of cars purchased by people aged 18 to 34, fell almost 30%, and according to a study from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, only 44% of teens obtain a drivers license within the first year of becoming eligible and just half, 54% are licensed before turning 18. Speaking as a millenial, let me be frank when I address the clearly shocked and disappointed Baby Boomer parents that find my lack of enthusiasm infuriating.
You're right, i want electric vehicles to staunch global warming and climate change. and I sure do like that cellphone I'm always carrying. However, You're delusional if you think I want a new car . You wrecked the economy, crushed the housing market, and saddled me with student loans that can never be forgiven and that will garnish my wages even after death. until last year, i didnt have a chance in hell of getting health insurance. Most of my friends work more than one job, not many of them earn a programmers salary like me and even if they did theyd be furious to find out most of it (after the universities generous cut) is going to an apartment owned by a capital investment firm that doesnt care about my broken shower. I've never met my landlord but i sure as hell know who my loan officer is. A car represents tax, title, license, maintenance, and fuel money I dont have. It represents parking tickets and accident insurance and a parking space. Not only do i lack the cash to buy this car, but chances are likely i'll never have the credit rating you did.
so drop it low. I dont care. I live downtown and I reverse-commute to the exurbs because the traffic is easier and im not as frightened of minorities as your generation was. I own a bicycle and take the bus if theres inclimate weather. The car is a 2001 crown victoria fleet vehicle I purchased used from the city with a broken door lock switch and a sagging headliner and honestly, i dont care. cars do not exemplify who I am or my success as a person and as more companies become copacetic with telecommuting, they'll only become less relevant to me.
Good people go to bed earlier.
Yes. No one buys a Telsa in order to save money.
But the entire world's projected number of electric vehicles in 2020 depends on the price of electric cars and their batteries.
I'm also assuming those projected numbers came out the ass of MBAs.
Get free satoshi (Bitcoin) and Dogecoins
Can the Tesla or Volt be connected to the charger and configured to only charge during a preset time period?
Tesla has a schedule function where you can set the time it will start charging. It's also geo-fenced (GPS), so the schedule is for a specific location. Pretty neat in that if you plug it in at home it won't start charging until your preset time, but plug it in somewhere else and it starts right away.
What are the two biggest price-determining factors in a market economy? Stupidity and greed.
Fixed.
I added a second meter for charging my Tesla. Other than paying an electrician to do the wiring I just had to fill out some forms to get a permit, add a second address for PG&E and pay for a disconnect-reconnect from PG&E. I don't think I paid more than $100 for the permit and second address. I pay around $0.12/KWh on my second meter when I charge between 11pm and 6am on weekdays or any time on weekends. It was trivial to set my Tesla to start charging at 11:05pm at whatever current draw I want (up to 80 amps in my case). Most EVs and plug-in hybrids let you choose the charging times. Now I did end up paying $4500 for all of the electrical work I had done, but this involved replacing the main breaker panel on my house, installing a second one with the two meters and running a 100A circuit around 100 feet to my garage with a fair amount of thick conduit and an emergency shut-off in the garage. The Tesla charger was another $1200, which as far as car chargers go is not bad especially considering that it handles 80 amps.
Before getting two meters I was able to get a special time-of-use EV rate so the cost wasn't that bad.
I typically pay $40-60/month for charging my car and I average around 15,000 miles/year.
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This is no more Troll than the original post.
Brakes are different in the Tesla than in BMW. In the case of Tesla there is a lot of regenerative braking so the brakes should last a lot longer. Tires on the other hand... I have the performance version of the Tesla model S with the 21" rims. When I got my car there was no price difference between the 19 and 21" rims. Anyway, I managed to get a bit over 15K miles on the original tires. The negative camber Tesla uses tends to be a bit hard on the rear tires, plus I tend to accelerate rather hard.
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84MPG, only $6800 -- that's not a typo.
http://www.eliomotors.com/
Yes, it's an enclosed motorcycle, but it drives like a car. You will not need a helmet in almost all states. It will solve more problems than the Tesla will, which is a just a Green toy for Rich people. This is an actual vehicle for you and me, regular people that earn less than 6 figures a year.
If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
My 2012 Leaf cost $15,600 used, with 8,000 miles as a rental. It looks and runs like brand new, and I don't have to recoup the difference between the purchase price and that of a similar gasoline car.
Gasoline alone used to cost $240 per month in our old car. The payment on the Leaf is $245. Electricity is about $50. Based on our acual usage, I pay about $ .07 USD per mile.
Except that these cars ARE CO2-emitting cars, unless you have arranged to get the power for your charger from renewable sources (difficult and expensive in most parts of the country). Here in Texas, these actually become a combination of coal, natural gas and nuclear burning cars.
I addessed this issue in this post. Short answer: even if the electricity is produced by coal, the large efficiency of electric motors, thermal power plants, and the electricity transmission system will ensure less emissions caused by an electric car than from a gasoline powered car. And my calculations didn't even take into account the emissions from processing oil into gasoline, which are especially high if the source is from tar sands. My calculations are referenced and I believe them to be reasonable.
This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
According to the official figures, the US gov't spends more money per capita on health insurance than countries that provide universal coverage. It is a sickening example of cronyism and thinly veiled bribery.
According to the official figures I've seen, the Federal government alone pays enough to not quite as much per person as the cheaper European states spend to cover 100% of their population. Add in the individual State funding and you could pay median European* healthcare costs on an individual basis without a single private dime.
As a (moderate) libertarian, I actually find this a good argument for national single-payer if it's implemented somewhat correctly. Because if done right it would actually REDUCE government spending, meaning by my 'yardstick' we actually have less government while people are better off. I, of course, have to point out that I think there are better options, but it's more a measure of just how big a cluster of screw-ups our healthcare system is.
*not to mention Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, etc...
I don't read AC A human right
Much of the cost was the cost to replace the main panel which is something I have wanted to do for some time anyway since the old one was almost 50 years old. Additionally, the previous owners did a lot of less-than-legal electrical work on the house and I wanted it done right. I corrected a lot of mistakes but I wanted a licensed electrician to go over it as well (he found a few issues I had missed). I could have continued to use the 30A dryer outlet in my garage indefinitely or installed a 50A outlet for considerably less money but I chose to do it right. I might have been able to use my existing breaker box and just run the 6 gauge wire needed for a 50A outlet for a few hundred dollars but I chose instead to do something that is more flexible in the future. Besides, my existing breaker box was almost full. The upgrade allowed me to add some additional circuits for other things.
Afterwards I ended up rewiring most of the outlets in my garage and adding some new ones using a couple of 20A circuits since the previous owners had tied everything into a 15A circuit that the doorbell transformer was on. It's also nice now that my air compressor doesn't cause the lights to dim and I don't have to risk tripping a breaker all the time when using power tools. I also feel better running 10 gauge wiring on the long run between the main panel and my garage for those outlets. 50 years ago the power requirements for houses were a bit different than they are today and this allows me to continue to upgrade things as I see fit. The car charger uses 1 gauge aluminum wire for much of the run with 2 gauge copper in the conduit. I had a neutral line run as well so that the wiring could be used for other purposes in the future if needed such as putting in a sub-panel in the garage. I have a few more circuits I plan to add now that I have more room available in my main panel.
When I got the house I found boxes hidden under the sheetrock and splices made with just electrical tape without any boxes plus putting 20A breakers on circuits that can't handle more than 15A, light switches put on the neutral line, etc. Some people shouldn't be allowed electrical wiring.
Besides, my house is paid off in full. If it wasn't for that there's no way I would have bought that car, let alone run the charging circuit for it. Most owners just go for a 50A outlet, which is all the Tesla will handle without an optional charger upgrade.
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