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Statistician Creates Mathematical Model To Predict the Future of Game of Thrones
KentuckyFC writes One way of predicting the future is to study data about events in the past and build a statistical model that generates the same pattern of data. Statisticians can then use the model to generate data about the future. Now one statistician has taken this art to new heights by predicting the content of the soon-to-be published novels in the Song of Ice and Fire series by George R R Martin. The existing five novels are the basis of the hit TV series Game of Thrones. Each chapter in the existing books is told from the point of view of one of the characters. So far, 24 characters have starred in this way. The statistical approach uses the distribution of characters in chapters in the first five books to predict the distribution in the forthcoming novels. The results suggest that several characters will not appear at all and also throw light on whether one important character is dead or not, following an ambiguous story line in the existing novels. However, the model also serves to highlight the shortcomings of purely statistical approaches. For example, it does not "know" that characters who have already been killed off are unlikely to appear in future chapters. Neither does it allow for new characters that might appear. Nevertheless, this statistical approach to literature could introduce the process of mathematical modelling to more people than any textbook.
Hodor hodor hodor. Hodor, hodor hodor hodor hodor Hodor hodor. Hodor.
Nevertheless, this statistical approach to literature could introduce the process of mathematical modelling to more people than any textbook.
Reading Shakespeare in the original Klingon language would probably easier.
Until the writer reads that analysis and intentionally deviates from it.
In which case you've just shown them that mathematical modelling is unreliable.
When the real lesson should be not to use a tool for a job for which it was never intended.
GRRM uses a 3 act structure with the beats to break up the acts for each of the character arcs across all the books. all you have to do is figure out where the character is in their story arc
By only looking at the data for what you have eaten the past few weeks, I can predict what you will eat tomorrow, with some random accuracy. (Assumptions: no friends, no changing tastes, constant values for availability and prices of all foods, no problems with traffic or weather, no sickness, etc).
This seems like pointless mental masturbation.
His analysis doesn't seem to take into account Martin originally wrote books 4 and 5 as one book, Seems to me those numbers should be averaged. Then again, IANAS.
great!
Since the makers of the series have access to this model (their PR department probably scans slashdot) and maybe they don't want to seem particularly predictable, a model of this type has extremely low odds of being accurate and popular simultaneously.
yes it can. good literature has flawed characters and the story line is overcoming their flaws
everyone you've read about so far dies. New characters are introduced. They die too. Children of new characters emerge, and die. Lots more dying, followed by a bit more dying.
My mathematical model tells me that they will keep the show going for as long as possible as long as ratings are good. Then it will suddenly end. Maybe on a cliffhanger.
I'll see your senator, and I'll raise you two judges.
John Snow and Daenerys Targaryen FTW. Otherwise it wouldn't be Fire and Ice. Plus they're the only two non-incestuous family leads standing who would not produce a tragedy. And we know one important character is not dead, since another actress already leaked it. Hope he didn't pay too much for his statistificator.
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
and adjust his narrative appropriately. Statistics and literature have different priorities.
Depends on when the author dies and the reins are given to Brandon Sanderson to finish it up once and for all.
"Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
.... any outcome is as good of a chance as the aliens invasion and kill all characters.
I like TFA, it is interesting and his methods are applicable to alot of different fields, for example: alot of music producers (particularly of pop music) have *very* sharply defined parameters for beats per minute (BPM) and timing of the 'hook' or chorus/refrain part of the song. I could see reversing this algorithm with a bank of keywords to plug in...basically hack writing that is automated
I do not think this is evidence that "machines can replace human writers"...
I think this is evidence that GoT is formulaic hack writing...writing so predictable a dumb machine with the right algorithm can nail it!
Now, this may start of conversation of "sheeple will consume anything" and that's another conversation...but yeah...I see this as one human using an algorithm to prove another is a hack writer...very interesting
Thank you Dave Raggett
my mathematical model confirms this, here it is in pseodocode format
if timeOnHands > 0
you need something better to fill it with
No wonder tuition is so high.
(If at first you don't succeed, do it different next time!)
This reminds me of all the systems with mathematical models to back them up showing how they hold secrets to winning at the dice game craps. Past events don't affect future events for random acts like throwing dice or flipping a coin. All that math is hooey. Baseball is full of these kind of stats with fans playing them off each other like Magic the Gathering cards not understanding a whit of the math underlying them. If students get taught to think critically of these kind of mathematics then using an example like this could be educational.
Every time someone tries to predict the end, another Stark dies.
I take it this statistician has not read Asimov. By announcing the prediction, you void the prediction. He should have put his program in a certified sarcophagus and then revealed after the show that he had correctly predicted it. Otherwise George R. R. Martin will just use his results as a reason to adjust the script!
Now one statistician has taken this art to new heights by predicting the content of the soon-to-be published novels in the Song of Ice and Fire series by George R R Martin.
soon-to-be published novels in the Song of Ice and Fire series by George R R Martin.
soon-to-be published
soon
better re-check that model bro.
Everyone is sitting at the table at a large feast and the scene switches to black.
Have gnu, will travel.
The next book opens with an interesting but hard to follow prologue concerning random throwaway characters that you never heard of and will never hear about again.
Almost nothing really significant happens for tens of chapters, even though every chapter bleeds into the next with a cliffhanger making you want to read the next one. Plus there's several gratuitous sex scenes to keep the Slashdotters interested.
After many chapters of pretty much no development, something horrific happens toward the end making the fans say, "NO! He can't do that!" and so they read on.
It closes off with an unsatisfying cliffhanger ending with a teaser epilogue that advertises yet another book. We still learn pretty much nothing about what is north of the wall and any protagonists we rooted for are that much farther from achieving anything good. There's no deep moral significance and nothing to be learned about life except that one is better off not being a character in one of George R.R. Martin's books.
Rinse and repeat until the series becomes unprofitable. (Unless Martin gets hit by a car, seven novels simply will not be enough.)
Incipiamus, fratres, servire Domino Deo, quia hucusque vix vel parum in nullo profecimus.
Why use statistics? Couldn't you just read the books and find out what's going to happen? Idiot
> Another technique would be leaking a fake script, claiming to have read a draft manuscript, etc.
Of course, the interesting thing about this techinique is you can only tell it if it fails to work, because the case where it works, and the case where it fails but the desired result was going to happen anyway are indistinguishable unless the author actually pipes up and comments on it.
This reminds me of a friend of mine who used to flash his high beams erratically as he came up to red lights because he knew thats how the fire trucks signal to give them a green. I tried to tell him that there was no way this was going to work, but he was convinced it did because....of course.... fairly often he would flash his lights and the light would turn green for him....
I do the same thing with my hand pretending I have the force....it "works" pretty well too. Which is to say....the light always changes.
"I opened my eyes, and everything went dark again"
None of the three endings to that game (I assume that you mean the original Deus Ex?) were particularly satisfying, and I think it's the greatest game ever produced. Endings are hard, as evidenced by The Sopranos, LOST, countless other video games, etc...
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work. I want to achieve it by not dying. - Woody Allen
so it's only fitting he end up having to clean the dragon litter boxes while she gets her mani/pedi.
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
It's not a movie dumbass
This reminds me of a friend of mine who used to flash his high beams erratically as he came up to red lights because he knew thats how the fire trucks signal to give them a green. I tried to tell him that there was no way this was going to work, but he was convinced it did because....of course.... fairly often he would flash his lights and the light would turn green for him....
I think your friend is influenced by this.
If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
In GRRM's work, the story line is either overcoming their flaws or dying horribly.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes