Slashdot Mirror
Statistical Mechanics Finds Best Places To Hide During Zombie Apocalypse
HughPickens.com writes Eric Mack reports at Cnet that a team of researchers at Cornell University, inspired by the book "World War Z" by Max Brooks, have used statistical-mechanics to model how an actual zombie outbreak might unfold and determined the best long-term strategy for surviving the walking dead: Head for the hills. Specifically, you should probably get familiar now with the general location of Glacier National Park so that when it all goes down, you can start heading in that direction. The project started with differential equations to model a fully connected population, then moved on to lattice-based models, and ended with a full US-scale simulation of an outbreak across the continental US. "At their heart, the simulations are akin to modeling chemical reactions taking place between different elements and, in this case, we have four states a person can be in--human," says Alex Alemi, "infected, zombie, or dead zombie--with approximately 300 million people."
Alemi believes cities would succumb to the zombie scourge quickly, but the infection rate would slow down significantly in more sparsely populated areas and could take months to reach places like the Northern Rockies and Glacier National Park. "Given the dynamics of the disease, once the zombies invade more sparsely populated areas, the whole outbreak slows down--there are fewer humans to bite, so you start creating zombies at a slower rate," Alemi says. Once you hit Montana and Idaho, you might as well keep heading farther north into the Canadian Rockies and all the way up to Alaska where data analysis shows you're most likely to survive the zombie apocalypse. The state with the lowest survival rate? — New Jersey. Unfortunately a full scale simulation of an outbreak in the United States shows that for `realistic' parameters, we are largely doomed.
Alemi believes cities would succumb to the zombie scourge quickly, but the infection rate would slow down significantly in more sparsely populated areas and could take months to reach places like the Northern Rockies and Glacier National Park. "Given the dynamics of the disease, once the zombies invade more sparsely populated areas, the whole outbreak slows down--there are fewer humans to bite, so you start creating zombies at a slower rate," Alemi says. Once you hit Montana and Idaho, you might as well keep heading farther north into the Canadian Rockies and all the way up to Alaska where data analysis shows you're most likely to survive the zombie apocalypse. The state with the lowest survival rate? — New Jersey. Unfortunately a full scale simulation of an outbreak in the United States shows that for `realistic' parameters, we are largely doomed.
I am definitely not worried about a zombie invasion. They seek brains, so I'm quite safe.
Okay, good work. But in their model, do they make the assumption that everyone on the continent is trying to make for Glacier National Park? Because, now that they've told everyone that's what they should do, I think their model should account for that.
It's probably using some existing outbreak model and imputing parameters for a particular kind of "zombie". Most of these "scientific zombie studies" are thinly veiled pandemic modeling scenarios.
I read the internet for the articles.
Why are there so many studies about a non-existent problem ? If you want to model a disease, why not a deadly flu ?
1) Zombies are stupid
2) Humans rule the world because we are smart, not because we are strong, not because we are hard to kill, nor because we are numerous. One smart human with 30 minutes to prepare makes a spear and scares off a lion, wolf, or even a bear. Why? Because we are some sneaky, devious, son's of bitches that outwit enemies.
3) Everyone always says your average human can defeat one zombie in pretty much every single movie or book. the zombies only are scary in large numbers.
4) So please tell me how in the real world a single zombie can infect all the rest of us?
It simply can NOT happen. The zombies will have surprise on their side for maybe 10 hours - and that's assuming it turns zombie close to nightfall. But even then, the surprise won't last long.
Come the day after the zombie outbreak ends, they will all be dead. They will NEVER take an entire city. At best they might take over a small town/rural community before word gets out, and humans arm ourselves with spears, axes, shotguns, torches, etc. Yeah, a few new zombies would be created after the surprise wore off, but if 1 human kills on average 3 zombies before they themselves become a zombie, then the number of zombies would drop like a bar of lead dropped out of an airplane.
Zombies are the stuff of nightmare only for children and sick people. To a human in the prime of his life they are an excuse to have some violent fun.
excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
Zombies are worse than Pirates and Ninjas!
Zombies are not REAL, Zombies as an exercise isn't realistic, as you just applying basic game rules to a model.
Zombies as a literary element is about a lone or a few people against a mindless horde. So we can feel good that a guy with intelligence 1 standard deviation from the mean, can be victorious against such a hord, by outsmarting them. So us normal people feel good about ourselves, that we can somehow be better than the rest of the population.
This meme needs to go away, it is old and tiresome.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
See how that works? They've created the requirement for additional investigation, thus ensuring job security - at least until the zombie apocalypse....at which point, they'll go to the *real* safest location.
To my city Zoo. 1.4sq miles with its own working train, planetarium, and 10ft concrete walls designed to keep big cats from jumping them. Open exhibits with moats instead of caged pens which are perfect for herding zombies into or keeping criminals. Indoor areas for winter exhibits to take shelter in. A petting farm with a barn full of sustainable livestock animals to live off while using some of the wilder animals to keep both snoops and zombies at bay. Every entrance is heavy pad locked gate or 6ft carousel style gate. It's own water tower, sewage, and generators. Two natural spring fed ponds, gardens, and multiple snack stations loaded with food. Tranq guns, mancatchers, and stun equipment for dealing with humans and wildlife. Massive parking structure with a helipad.
Come at me bitches!
While I enjoy the genre, I find that the "rules" of zombie apocalypse seem designed to limit the ability to humans to fight back by imposing arbitrary limits on the effectiveness of weapons.
Brooks quickly discounts the effectiveness of military weapons like cluster munitions, Gatling guns and other kinds of weapons designed to put a large amount of shrapnel or projectiles into an area quickly. Even if it didn't result in killing of an entire horde, I would expect it to kill a large number and greatly reduce the threat of most of them by seriously degrading their mobility through damage to their ability to walk or move.
I'd like to see a Mythbusters episode where they take a 7.62mm Gatling gun and fire it into a simulated zombie horde at average head height to see what kind of damage it would do. It's probably beyond practicality to setup that many targets, but it would be an interesting simulation nonetheless.
I think the simplest way to deal with a horde would be a minor adaption of a machine designed to clear minefields -- the demining flail. These slightly resemble a combine bolted onto the front of a tank, with the "combine" being basically a bunch of steel weights on the ends of chains designed to beat on the ground to set off mines.
It's not hard to imagine a much lighter weight device (since zombies don't explode) spinning 5 pound weights in the air. It would completely pulverize zombies and turn clearing zombie hordes into something akin to mowing the grass.
...but my refuge for the zombie apocalypse?
The town water tower. Specifically, INSIDE/atop.
First benefit is that (until now) nobody else would be going there, and you avoid the panic-rush when everyone gets stuck on the freeways.
Many/most(?) stations have emergency generators already built in and by law well-equipped for sustained operation.
Ample fresh water, obviously, and a great situation for catching clean rainfall.
Most of our local towers are largely flat, and basically immune to severe weather and heavily insulated, meaning you'd have a secure, highly defensible place with great sightlines (to signal/communicate other survivors, if that's something you want to do), so high that even if they were attracted to your location, they'd have to pile up so high they'd pretty much liquefy at the bottom before getting to you.
Bring your acetylene kit as you evacuate*, and you could really build a nice home in there, including ziplines to nearby roofs/buildings for foraging (granted, getting back up there if there were zombies around your entry might stink).
*lots of small communities actually have a fair amount of tools stored right inside in the base for maintenance, saving you a lot of work.
-Styopa
Really? We have run out of problems now that time can be spent on all this drivel?
I personally have heard that zombie brains make excellent dip, so get the chips ready.
Nevertheless, this is silly.
Humans are the most deadly predators that the planet has ever had. Killing stuff is what we're really really good at. Making weapons is something we're really really good at.
Zombies... their weapons are teeth and fingernails. Their tactics are go straight in and attack regardless of tactical situation.
They wouldn't have a chance.
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
There is a reason that Glacier National Park has fewer zombies. It has fewer people to start with so there would be less "feed stock" to make zombies. But there is a reason there are so few people in the area. It's very cold and hard to survive there. So maybe Key West would be a better alternative. And of course, if everyone tries to get to GNP, it will be very crowded with people... and zombies.
"He took a duck in the face at 250 knots." -- William Gibson, Pattern Recognition
Yes. Speaking as a Montana fellow, and being quite familiar with Glacier park, I can confidently inform everyone that if you try to live up there in the winter without a well-insulated and extremely well supplied domicile away from any steep slopes (locations for which there is a very limited selection, btw), Glacier park will calmly, without any particular effort, make you dead. For that matter, given the terrain and some of the species still wandering around up there, I'm none too sanguine about anyone's chances through the other seasons, either. And a bunch of people? You'd just kill each other.
No zombies required.
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
No, vegetarian zombies have an insatiable appetite for GRAAAAAIIIINNNNNSSS!
My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.