Slashdot Mirror


USGS: Oil and Gas Operations Could Trigger Large Earthquakes

sciencehabit writes: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has taken its first stab at quantifying the hazard from earthquakes associated with oil and gas development. The assessment, released in a preliminary report today, identifies 17 areas in eight states with elevated seismic hazard. And geologists now say that such induced earthquakes could potentially be large, up to magnitude 7, which is big enough to cause buildings to collapse and widespread damage. Update: 04/23 15:56 GMT by T : New submitter truavatar adds: At the same time, the Oklahoma Geological Survey released a statement explicitly calling out deep wastewater injection wells to Oklahoma earthquakes, stating "The OGS considers it very likely that the majority of recent earthquakes, particularly those in central and north-central Oklahoma, are triggered by the injection of produced water in disposal wells."

27 of 171 comments (clear)

  1. Maybe so but... by click2005 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Good luck getting a penny in compensation out of the corporations responsible if this happens.

    --
    I am a free slashdotter. I will not be modded, blogged, DRM'd, patented, podcasted or RFID'd. My life is my own.
    1. Re:Maybe so but... by hawguy · · Score: 3, Informative

      Good luck getting a penny in compensation out of the corporations responsible if this happens.

      They are already smart enough to use shell corporations to do the drilling -- by the time water contamination or triggered earthquakes are discovered, the shell company is long done and a new one has taken its place.

    2. Re:Maybe so but... by pushing-robot · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Then again, if these are already areas of 'elevated seismic hazard', it's quite possible that inducing the plates to slip now will prevent an even larger quake in the future.

      Geoengineering is a new science with great unknowns; we should not approach it without caution, nor should we assume anything we do is bad.

      --
      How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
    3. Re:Maybe so but... by Holi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yes because Oklahoma is such a hot bed for earthquakes.

      "There were more earthquakes of magnitude 3 or higher in Oklahoma last year than in California. Several were of a magnitude greater than 5 and caused considerable damage."

      We are talking about areas that until recently have been considered geologically stable. Don't you think that the USGS have taken that into account?

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
    4. Re:Maybe so but... by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Good luck getting a penny in compensation out of the corporations responsible if this happens.

      They are already smart enough to use shell corporations to do the drilling

      But not bp or exxon corporations?

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    5. Re:Maybe so but... by lgw · · Score: 2

      No, he's certainly right in the long term. The only source of the energy needed for earthquakes is geological, and that power source (plates moving against each other) adds energy at a fixed rate (on human timescales). It's just a matter of when and how the energy is released. Triggering it early, when it otherwise wouldn't have caused an earthquake in our lifetimes, or perhaps in humanities lifetime as a species, that you can blame on someone, but eventually that stored power is going to be released.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    6. Re:Maybe so but... by swillden · · Score: 2

      We are talking about areas that until recently have been considered geologically stable

      The fact that we were recently wrong about the stability of the area isn't really relevant. The drilling couldn't add enormous amounts of energy to the substrata, in the form of stresses that required shifting enormous amounts of rock to release, so you have to assume that the stresses were already present. When or how would they have been released without the drilling is an important question, but they would have been released eventually. Is this way of releasing them better or worse? I don't think we know that.

      Don't you think that the USGS have taken that into account?

      I don't see anyone claiming that they didn't. What would you expect?

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
    7. Re:Maybe so but... by Holi · · Score: 2

      You should also see this http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ear...

      611 quakes in 2014
      111 in 2013
      40 in 2012
      77 in 2011
      65 in 2010
      22 in 2009

      Something is going on and it's definitely looking like the oil industry is involved, especially when you compare the above map with this one, http://strangesounds.org/wp-co...

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
  2. TANSTAAFL by Daetrin · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As a favorite author liked to say, "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch." Unfortunately we are very poor at evaluating externalized costs. The pollution put out by coal plants that are "far enough" away from cities, the fish that are killed by hydroelectric damns, the excess carbon produced by all fossil fuels, and now the potential for damaging earthquakes from large scale oil and gas operations.

    Of course the first ones to ignore externalized costs are the business offloading those costs on everyone else. And if a magnitude 7 quake gets triggered and people get hurt or killed (potentially dozens or hundreds of people in the US and possibly many more in less developed areas) the corporations responsible ought to be liable for millions or billions of dollars. But if necessary they'll lawyer up for a fraction of the cost and drag the issue out in court for years until everyone forgets. After all, how do you prove that this particular quake wouldn't have happened without drilling? And how do you prove which company's actions triggered the quake?

    --
    This Space Intentionally Left Blank
    1. Re:TANSTAAFL by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I don't think we're poor at evaluating externalized costs. I think we're just very damned good at completely ignoring them, attacking anyone who tries to remind us of them, and undermining any kind of political or social solutions that might be brought forward. We are easily lead by the nose by those willing to tell us what to hear. We're cowards.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    2. Re:TANSTAAFL by DigiShaman · · Score: 3

      So I've read that what's happening is the proverbial "straw that broke the camel's back". Meaning all this activity only hastened the inevitable; an earthquake. Some geologists have stated that in hindsight, this may actually be a good thing in that it releases stress that would otherwise buildup and cause an even bigger quake at a much later date. Much MUCH later I would think. So I dunno, if a mag 7 goes off, could you really prove who or what caused it though??

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    3. Re:TANSTAAFL by tnk1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      A lot depends on how much the resource extraction did to actually cause the quake at that moment.

      Most geological features are extremely massive and not so precariously balanced, but there are exceptions to that like faults.

      If the quake was going to happen eventually anyway, and all we did was hasten it a few years or a few decades, the reality is that the extraction determined the time of the incident, but did not cause the actual build up of energy. All you did was move up the quake schedule.

      In that way, you may have caused it to go off with less energy and that could be helpful. An example would be much like those folks who use surplus artillery pieces to cause controlled avalanches so that an inevitable avalanche is allowed to come down predictably and with a little bit of control.

      Do I think resource extraction is working that way? Certainly not, because we're not planning extraction in that way. What we're doing now is shooting artillery at the snow pack for other reasons and not really caring where it comes down or when. If they even believe that it will come down at all to begin with.

      Still, I would be careful about assigning blame to extraction companies for big killer earthquakes. The fact is that your big earthquakes are dealing in colossal forces. If they were balanced so finely that extraction could set them off, you can be pretty sure that that earthquake was coming anyway. It's sort of like drilling a well and accidentally releasing buried Cthulhu. Sure, you released a Great Old One, but let's face it, if he was that close to the surface, *somebody* was going to do it eventually. You can't just stop drilling wells just because you might possibly release unfathomable forces from outside of Time and Space. Such forces tend to take care of themselves.

    4. Re:TANSTAAFL by Daetrin · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I'm sure a class action suit would work great.

      Earthquake hits LA, does major damage. Oil and gas companies are taken to court in a class action lawsuit. (There's a lot of oil production here, especially around Long Beach.)

      The case drags on for years, but eventually the companies have to settle, let's say for $10 billion. That sounds like a lot of money right? Except half of it goes to the lawyers. Then half of the rest is made as a tax deductible donation to the Red Cross for disaster relief. The remaining 2.5 billion is split amongst the approximately 18.5 million residents of greater Los Angeles. Which would come out to a little under $150 per person. And it's delivered in the form of coupons for 50% off your next 100 gallons of gas. That 2.5 billion will of course go into a fund until those coupons are redeemed, and i would be surprised if the companies responsible don't get to keep the interest on those funds until they're spent to reimburse the gas stations that redeem the coupons. And of course a lot of people will forget that they have the coupons and never get around to using them. And a lot of the people won't actually own a gasoline powered car and will have to try and sell the coupons, probably for less than market value.

      (And then most likely the price of gas in LA will go up for "unknown reasons" until most of the coupons have been redeemed.)

      --
      This Space Intentionally Left Blank
    5. Re:TANSTAAFL by Coren22 · · Score: 2

      Did I say anything about Fossil Fuels? Don't put words in my mouth. There is no power generation method without some kind of tragedy of the commons (externalized costs).

      Nuclear - Waste
      Hydro - Land destruction/fish extinctions
      Solar - High Land use/nasty chemicals in fabrication
      Wind - Dead birds/rare earths used in construction with all the poisoning that involves
      Tidal - Removing energy from the tides which effects tidal species

      Please, show me the mythical free energy method you developed that doesn't have any externalized costs.

      --
      APK likes to ask for responses to the same things over and over. Maybe he just likes the responses?
  3. Re:This Warning Brought To You By Saudi Arabia by gstoddart · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You don't think the oil and gas industry hasn't spent millions of dollars to try to say that fracking is perfectly safe and couldn't possibly cause any harm?

    Basically they've done what the tobacco industry did .. delay, obfuscate, and claim that it's up to someone else to prove it's dangerous while they assume it's safe without evidence.

    You don't think a massive lobbying, PR, and fake science campaign isn't an actual conspiracy?

    Because, really, what they're doing is lying to the public, reaping billions in profits, and then claiming that everything they're doing is perfectly safe.

    Which, of course, is increasingly proven to be bullshit.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
  4. Good article from the New Yorker on this by Gandoron · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://www.newyorker.com/magaz...

    Until 2008, Oklahoma experienced an average of one to two earthquakes of 3.0 magnitude or greater each year. (Magnitude-3.0 earthquakes tend to be felt, while smaller earthquakes may be noticed only by scientific equipment or by people close to the epicenter.) In 2009, there were twenty. The next year, there were forty-two. In 2014, there were five hundred and eighty-five, nearly triple the rate of California. Including smaller earthquakes in the count, there were more than five thousand. This year, there has been an average of two earthquakes a day of magnitude 3.0 or greater.

    The first case of earthquakes caused by fluid injection came in the nineteen-sixties. Engineers at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, a chemical-weapons manufacturing center near Commerce City, Colorado, disposed of waste fluids by injecting them down a twelve-thousand-foot well. More than a thousand earthquakes resulted, several of magnitudes close to 5.0. “Unintentionally, it was a great experiment,” Justin Rubinstein, who researches induced seismicity for the U.S.G.S., told me.

    1. Re:Good article from the New Yorker on this by rubycodez · · Score: 2

      No, those occassional > 5 quakes were just normal for Oklahoma. Look and their history, 6+ and 7 quakes since 1800. You can't blame those on fracking, just the many little ones

  5. Wrong way to look at it... by theendlessnow · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The oil and gas industry are merely trying to relieve "earth tension". The planet Earth is tense... and needs a good massage. We'll thank them later.

  6. Stop Lying by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    They're not shell corporations; they're legitimately owned and operated by other parties, who gladly take the profit.

  7. Re:This Warning Brought To You By Saudi Arabia by sycodon · · Score: 2

    Fracking has been going on for nearly 50 years.

    But now...NOW, it's causing earthquakes.

    I see.

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
  8. This hypothesis can be tested by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

    Let's try injecting water into some California fault, safely out in the desert, to see if a major fault can be moved using this technique. I know that the state doesn't have any water to spare at the moment, but we can use treated wastewater or other "junk" water for the experiment.

  9. Behaving as expected by sjbe · · Score: 2

    You don't think the oil and gas industry hasn't spent millions of dollars to try to say that fracking is perfectly safe and couldn't possibly cause any harm?

    Of course they have. You'd have to be living under a rock with your fingers in your ears to think otherwise.

    Basically they've done what the tobacco industry did .. delay, obfuscate, and claim that it's up to someone else to prove it's dangerous while they assume it's safe without evidence.

    More or less, yes this is exactly what they are doing. The playbook is almost identical. Claim that there is insufficient proof, ask for more studies (funded by them frequently), hire "experts" to promote their viewpoint, hire politicians to hinder any regulations, etc. Take the tobacco PR playbook, scratch out tobacco and write in fossil fuels and that is almost exactly what they are doing.

    You don't think a massive lobbying, PR, and fake science campaign isn't an actual conspiracy?

    I think it is a rather clear and unsurprising expression of economic self interest which in many cases is contrary to the public interest. I don't think you need to invoke some grand conspiracy theory to understand their actions though I would not be shocked to find out that there was some fossil fuel companies acting illegally in cahoots. Anything that makes it more expensive to drill/refine/sell, increases regulation or reduces fossil fuel use is likely to be opposed by producers of fossil fuels. They all know they basically think the same way on the topic so they're all behaving more or less as expected.

  10. Solution will be not to dispose waste in wells by peter303 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That could cost oil companies and farmers more money. It is likely the waste will have to purified like sewage into clean water and toxic solid waste.

  11. Facts support themselves by sjbe · · Score: 2

    Unfortunately this announcement comes from the executive branch of the US government.

    So what? Either the facts support the claims or they do not. Who it is from is irrelevant to its veracity. There is a reason we insist that scientific findings be repeatable so that others may confirm the findings. The fact that a government agency is involved is irrelevant to the scientific process.

    Many of us have developed zero trust in anything coming from DC.

    So even if what they are saying is actually true, you plan to dismiss it out of hand because you dislike government in general. This in spite of the fact that you provided no actual reason to dispute the conclusions reached in the study nor any articulated reason to think the USGS is being dishonest in any way.

    1. Re:Facts support themselves by rubycodez · · Score: 2

      Science is done by humans. Science therefore is political, agenda driven, fallible, biased

  12. What is your alternative hypothesis? by sjbe · · Score: 2

    Fracking has been going on for nearly 50 years.

    But only fairly recently has it been employed in large scale in the relevant area. It wasn't economically feasible in lots of cases due to the availability of much easier and cheaper sources of oil and gas.

    But now...NOW, it's causing earthquakes.

    Apparently so. Do you have evidence of an alternative reason for earthquakes to go from 2/year prior to 2008 up to over 2/DAY in 2013?

    I see.

    So you are skeptical? That's fine. Have you looked at all the evidence and found a plausible alternative hypothesis we can test?

  13. Re:Trust the US government by jbengt · · Score: 2

    Unfortunately this announcement comes from the executive branch of the US government. Many of us have developed zero trust in anything coming from DC.

    So what about the report coming from the government of the state of Oklahoma, which says basically the same thing?