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The Auto Industry May Mimic the 1980s PC Industry
An anonymous reader writes: An article at TechCrunch looks at some interesting parallels between the current automobile industry and the PC industry of the 1980s. IBM was dominant in 1985, employing four times as many people as its nearest competitor. But as soon as Windows was released, the platform became more important for most end users than the manufacturer. Over the next decade, IBM lost its throne. In 2015, we're on the cusp of a similar change: the computerized car. Automakers, though large and well-established, haven't put much effort into building the platform on which their cars run. Meanwhile, Google's Android Auto and Apple CarPlay are constantly improving. As soon as those hit a breakthrough point where it's more important for a customer to have the platform than the manufacturer's logo on the side, the industry is likely to resemble a replay of the PC industry in the 1980s.
Hardly anyone over the age of 25 cares about the eye candy touchscreen and gadgets in the car. They either car about space for kids and/or general crap, fuel economy, performance or looks or a combination of the above. Everything else can be done on a smartphone.
IBM wasn't undone by the platform, they were undone by the CLONES running the platform. And at the end of the day, a car is still 99% hardware. It takes a lot to build one, and I can't envision a world where cars can be easily home built from standard parts.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
Cars are not PC's, but the author of TFA tries to argue that they are little more than a computing "platform". Automobiles are, of course, much more than that. Most of that "much more" is totally unrelated to computer-related functions or features, so to suggest that the auto industry will follow some parallel of the PC industry is just silly.
Vendor-driven marketing platitudes bearing little resemblance to reality using shortened memes for theme driven effect.
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So, are we talking about the year of Linux on the Blacktop?
"Enjoy what you're doing! If it becomes drudgery, you're doing it wrong!" - Jim Butterfield
And I, for one, welcome our new Google overlords. I'd like to remind them that, as a programmer, I would be very useful in managing the slaves in their data mines.
SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
Too many differences to list. One, the cost of entry into the market for making automobiles is staggering, so there aren't going to be any new manufacturers. Quite different from the PC. Two, the cost to the buyer. PC's got cheaper but cars are getting more expensive. Three, you can live without a PC (you could back then, anyway) but very few cars are bought as luxury items. So, the vast majority of cars are going to continue to be sold as transportation devices and not as smartphone substitutes.
I disagree with the premise of the article, as there are quite a few things about automobiles which are independent of the OS the in-vehicle entertainment and nav console - much more than a beige box pc.
However, it's worth noting that people over 25 are dying. Old people (over 25) as a market segment will change dramatically over then next 30 years as nearly everyone over 50 will no longer be in the market for an automobile. The "money" demographic will shift to those who are just now getting their driver's licenses.
I do find it depressing that, in an age where interactivity with personal devices can be done in an agnostic way, more and more interfaces are becoming OS specific.
Is it just my observation, or are there way too many stupid people in the world?
Big companies can innovate too - look at IBM Research. Just because the results arn't on sale on Amazon or in your local high street doesn't mean they don't exist. In fact for some innovations ONLY a big company has the money to do the blue sky research. Big Pharma - whatever you make think of them - being the prime example.
The thing that's important about a car isn't the in car entertainment system. It's the wheels and the engine and the bits in between that let me get to where I need to go. I need that to last a decade or more. I need it to be a good match for the way I drive. The in car computer system? Don't care. My current ride doesn't even have much of a driver facing interface, other than some indicator lights. My in car entertainment system consists of a radio and whoever is in the passenger seat. Navigation comes from my smart phone. I upgrade the smart phone every couple of years, which expands capacity.
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The article dismisses the significant difference between the auto industry and the computer industry: if your computer is a piece of crap, it's just some lost $. (ie the only thing lost is some money and perhaps time). If your car is badly made, it can quite easily kill you and your family in a host of interesting ways.
This means that buyer conservatism is high, and willingness to 'experiment' is extremely low.
You'll notice in similar industries where computer equipment is of comparable mission-critical role, they are likewise extremely slow to adopt "the next big thing" and nothing like the 'retail' electronics marketplace.
So no, the automotive industry won't behave anything like the retail electronics market. Not at all.
-Styopa
PC's in the late 80s were standardized - Functionally there was very little difference between an actual IBM PC running DOS or a far cheaper PC clone running DOS. That changed with IBM attempting the PS/2 architecture but by then everybody was settled on the AT (and later the ATX) motherboard architecture. AMD vs Intel exchange some performance vs price differences but ultimately that's like choosing a V6 over a V8 over an I4 and most people aren't going to care.
Each car manufacturer has its own architecture, designs and manufacturing styles - Just slapping a google-droidPod-phone-radio into the car isn't going to make a major difference when I'm looking for dependability or gas mileage (or battery mileage) or style/appearance.
A closer analogy would've been the 6502 systems (the original Apple vs IBM vs Commodore 64 vs Atari)
There were hundreds of automobile startups in the 1900s-1920s until standardization and consolidation. Electric and steam vehicles were competitors before internal combustion won out.